Republicans need to chillax.
Especially within the Republican establishment, some apparently are
having anxiety attacks about how the primaries are unfolding.
Here’s what the panic prone seem to be overlooking — if
the election were held tomorrow, Charley Sheen would beat Barack
Obama. Heck, you could even say John McCain would beat him. The
point is this: the election in November will be almost exclusively
about Obama. The relative importance of Obama versus
fill-in-the-blank will be in the neighborhood of 95 to 5. This
election will be overwhelmingly a vote against rather than a vote
for. The deciding question on the majority of voters’ minds will
be, “Which of these two guys is not Barack Obama.” There will be
tens of millions of “one-issue voters” and the one issue will be
Mr. Obama.
In the 2008 election Obama had virtually every imaginable
factor in his favor. The mainstream media gave him a free ride, as
they will again in November. There was no due diligence, no
vetting. Even with every imaginable advantage, 47 percent of the
electorate voted against him. It’s reasonable to assume that
virtually none of those who voted against him then will vote for
him this time.
Now consider the 53 percent who voted for him. That 53
percent comprised a number of sub-populations — young people,
minorities, Jews, labor union members, progressives, independents,
for example. Now on an almost daily basis we see polls showing how
he is hemorrhaging support from one or another of these groups. In
a wide variety of ways he has managed to alienate many of his
supporters.
There are, of course, Democrats and liberals who would
never vote for any Republican. Nevertheless, some will simply opt
not to vote at all. On the other hand, those who voted against
Obama in 2008 are now more highly motivated to vote than they were
then.
Obama’s greatest asset in 2008 was his unknown-ness. That
asset has now disappeared. In 2008 his blank résumé miraculously
transformed into a blank canvas that voters used to envision their
heartfelt fantasies. Obama is now a known quantity and a known
quality. Getting elected by concealing who you are is not a
strategy that can be recycled.
The number of people he has angered or at least
disappointed is immense. Even his supporters are angry at him. The
difference between the hope and the results is huge. People who
were mildly against him are now fervently so. The high unemployment
rate only partially reflects the pain and anxiety in the
population. Thousands of businesses have failed, and thousands of
others are hanging on by their finger tips. Many of those people
voted for him last time and will have a tough time doing so
again.
The Obama White House and reelection team are trying to
show a brave face. The Republican primaries are their primary basis
for optimism. They and their mainstream media support team think
the Republicans are self-destructing, and many Republicans seem to
agree.
Fortunately for Republicans, in this election an ideal
candidate is not a prerequisite for victory. As is always the case,
everything is relative.
It is now obvious that Obama cannot run on his record. His
State of the Union address almost totally avoided any mention of
his accomplishments other than killing Bin Laden.
Obama’s only real hope is that the economy turns around
between now and November. That, of course, is a real possibly. Our
economy has enormous inherent strength and resilience. No recession
has lasted forever.
If the economy does turn around it will be in spite of,
not because of, Obama. Nevertheless, a recovery would change the
mood of the country. Some voters will give credit to Obama. Many
voters, however, are so strongly opposed to Obama that nothing
between now and November could swing their vote in his favor. If
the economy does not recover significantly, Obama is toast, no
matter who the Republican nominee turns out to be.
It’s never smart to be overconfident or to make
assumptions, but it’s also not smart to be defeatist when there are
so many valid reasons for being optimistic. You’ll have a lot more
fun watching events between now and November if you maintain an
optimistic outlook.
