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At Large
Anatomy of Assassination
Who besides Israel and the U.S. would want to quash Iran’s nuclear ambitions?
It is clear that some entity is attempting to attack Iran’s nuclear weapon development program through assassination of members of its scientific and administrative executive. This is tactical targeting in the extreme. It’s also the most ancient form of political military warfare.
Covert activity in modern times against war-making industrial potential centered about the facilities themselves. Singling out individual scientists and key administrators indicates either a weakness in penetrating the internal physical structure of Iran’s key nuclear operations or, oddly enough, quite the opposite. In this latter case the covert action against individuals could be a result of excellent intelligence on exactly those people whose intellectual input is so important as to act as the controlling factor in the development process.
From an Iranian counter-intelligence standpoint the tendency would be to judge that the information that led to the choice of a given set of human targets must be derived from assessments that were obtained from deep penetration of the Iranian nuclear program. The accumulation of such extensive and carefully guarded intelligence would be daunting and equaled only by the analysis and assessment of the information gathered.
Obviously, external observers such as the foreign press cannot make an informed judgment on the scope of validity of the intelligence product available to the entity directing the covert operations. Even trained technical experts differ on the relative importance of the several personalities who already have been successfully targeted. In the absence of specific information, however, various elements of the situation can be discerned through logical analysis.
Individual key-party assassination is a very dangerous weapon to employ in covert operations because it invites direct retribution of a similar type. This then establishes the basis for an escalation; a fact known to all covert action organizations, though non-state groups usually care little about issues of escalation. Actions by state-run agencies sometimes are used by their governments to invite counteraction. Such acts then are exploited as a justified provocation for an escalated response. If such is perceived as the case by Iran — and the antagonist is believed to be Israel aided by the United States — Iran logically would be constrained in order to avoid a full scale Israeli attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities. Such purposeful provocation is a tactic not unknown in the history of past non-nuclear conflicts.
The problem that Iranian counter-espionage strategists have is that the information on who holds important positions in their nuclear program actually has become well known in the international nuclear community. To add to this is that the identity of most of the scientists and high level technicians in the nuclear field is a matter of general knowledge within the Iranian academic and industrial community. It is just not that difficult to figure out who works where if one already is in the appropriate social/technical orbit. Iran’s scientific and technological society is a rather tight fraternity — and in some instances, sorority.
If the removal of one or several key minds from the Iranian program is the objective of these assassinations, it would suggest that the objective is, at the very least, to delay the progress of the nuclear program. But to suspect the so far relatively small number of killings would have a major impact on Iran’s nuclear weapon development requires the assessment that Tehran has access to very few intellects capable of such activity. With the number of nuclear and akin discipline scientists available internationally who are willing to work for high pay, the latter circumstance seems beyond improbable.
One factor that certainly would not have been overlooked by Iranian security is the existence of a purely politically motivated internal faction that seeks to embarrass the current leadership. Hitting the regime through its highest profile secret program might be considered in anti-government terms to be the most effective form of public embarrassment that could be created. This would be so even if the assassinations do not have a serious impact on the nuclear weapon program as such. Indeed the internal dissidents might be connected to a foreign service — or not.
Assassinations, such as those already accomplished in Iran, introduce an element of fear among scientific peers not only in the nuclear field but in similar sensitive industries. The killings, however, do not stop work except where the victim is technically irreplaceable. The value of assassination is that of a force multiplier: One can attain a possible result detrimental to the ultimate target (i.e. nuclear weapon development) at little cost materially or, in most instances, even politically. Assassination can be the ultimate sanction weapon short of any other military action.
While most Iranian public statements regarding the assassination of key individuals in the nuclear field focus on the Israelis, Americans, and sometimes the British, Tehran is aware that most Arab neighbors in the Middle East have considerable objections to Iran’s nuclear weapon ambition. Wanting to avoid proliferation of these weapons in their region has been a well-known goal of the Saudis, the Gulf States, and Turkey. All these countries have a vested interest in any covert operations inhibiting Iran’s growth as a military power. They can not be ruled out as at least collaborating in operations aimed at disrupting Iranian weapon development.
Iran decided to take on the entire Western world when it proceeded with its massive secret nuclear program. Why it would be surprised that every weapon — including assassination — would be used against it defies logic.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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Michael Tomlinson| 1.17.12 @ 6:32AM
The MEK.
Con Chef (NB) | 1.17.12 @ 9:03AM
BINGO! That's what I thought when I head about it. No doubt, supported by us, but who cares?
Jack in Wi.| 1.17.12 @ 6:42AM
Assassination is terrorism. Would we or the Israeli's want that to be done to people here or in Israel? Iran is a signer of the non-proliferation treaty. It has a right to develop nuclear power. It is under constant inspection. Whoever is doing this is a rogue regime. It has come out that in 2007 the Israeli's were funding terror groups in iran and pretending that the Americans were doing it. Bush was so disgusted that he called the Israeli's to task.
JP| 1.17.12 @ 8:05AM
Er... Jack,
I hate to bust your bubble but there are no "inspectors" in Iran. In case you are not aware, just to get Iran to the bargaining table has required 8 years of negociaton, in which Iran has consistently walked out. The Vienna talks are a sham. Iran uses them just to stall military action.
Isreal is ground zero. Iran already has the delivery systems (bought from the CHICOMS) that can hit targets as far away as Rome. These missles, if armed with a nuke would easily hit Tel Aviv. Isreal cannot afford to rely on the US - especially when Progressives run things.
fckewe| 1.17.12 @ 8:38AM
Those missiles can also hit the UDS Naval Base in Naples. I think this assasination was a message more than a crippling blow to their program. It tells the others creating nuclear harm to the rest of the world the PRICE of being the world's enemy. It also tells the leaders in Iran that they are vulnerable at the highest levels.
It's not quite a horses head in a mobster's bed, and most likely didn't make any islamist idiot in iran cave, but it was like the RED party report on the Obama's parenting skills or church attendance. It was a blatant, public, hamhanded attack on the programs children. Even the MOB respects families and just like the RED party journalist's ethical and moral lapses lefthandedly brought S & M into the political fray here, this killing brought the children of a nuclear Iran into the fray there. Those children being the scientists and engineers buried underground at Fordo.
Al Adab| 1.17.12 @ 11:20AM
BTW, any number of nations in the ME have the potential to commit acts like this one. Their national security is at risk to an expansionist Iran as well.
fckewe| 1.18.12 @ 4:07AM
VEry much so. Saddam proved how costly burning oil reserves with spite was, so irradiating them and making the WHOLE region glow for a decade or so would just finish them all off.
I mean, if they will do that, shouldn't we just default on all the treasuries they are holding. We could do as a nation what GM did to it's creditors with the stroke of a pen.
Con Chef (NB) | 1.17.12 @ 9:04AM
Yeah, Jack. They signed the treaty. That just means EVERYTHING, doesn't it? Are you really as lethally stupid as your daily posts indicate, or are you just a satirical master?
2Anglico| 1.17.12 @ 9:07AM
"It has a right to develop nuclear power". Says who?
Iran has enough oil to power its bicycles till the end of time. Why do they "need" nuclear power? Iran is trying to build nuclear WEAPONS. Felons in America are barred from owning firearms, international criminal regimes should be barred from possessing nukes.
Stick your head back in the sand Jack.
Paul Kotik| 1.17.12 @ 12:08PM
No, Jack, we would not like it if the Iranians killed Americans. We know this, because they've killed lots of Americans over the past 3 decades and we didn't like it.
That's why it's better if we do it to them, there, first.
Get it? A dead Iranian is one who will not kill Americans, or contribute to the killing of Americans.
Occam's Tool| 1.18.12 @ 6:48PM
The Palestinians already murder 14 month old babies, Jack---sawing their heads off. Slowly.
Iran should expect to be pounded like a dog, Jackboot. Just like the Packers were last Sunday, and just like your boy's campaign will be in SC. Finishing 4th, Jackboot.
John786| 1.17.12 @ 6:52AM
The murder of Iranian scientist will not curb the nuclear programme. That is not their purpose. It is to provoke Iran into a miscalculation and thus lead them to be wiped of the map. Even without an Iranian miscalculation war is coming sooner than later.: bomb bomb Iran. what is stopping Iran being bombed today. It must that real and damaging blowback is estimated at being sub 1%. my guess is that war game simulations are trying reduce that further before an attack is mounted. The problem with the future is that its in the future. The law of unintend consequences. I don't believe the Iranians are afraid: the Shia are used to being surrounded. The fear is on the side of the rapturers.
Stuart Koehl| 1.17.12 @ 10:35AM
No, John, you're wrong. Equipment can be purchased, but using it to design and build a nuclear weapon requires special knowledge and skills not exactly available everywhere, not even in the U.S. Scientists and technicians are high-demand/low-density assets in developing countries, and represent a critical path through any high-technology program. Kill the right guy, and the program stops in its tracks.
Back in the 1960s, Gamel Abdul Nasser decided to build a ballistic missile capable of reaching the Zionist Entity; equipped with the kind of chemical weapons Nasser was using in his war in Yemen (remember that one?), it had the potential to wipe the hated Jews off the map (lots of Israeli Arabs, too, but them's the breaks).
Trouble was, Egyptian rocket scientists were as scarce as hen's teeth. Not to worry, though, because lots of Werner von Braun's boys were still cooling their heels in Argentina, Bolivia, Uraguay, and even Der Vaterland. So Nasser made them an offer they couldn't refuse: brand new labs and factories, a big salary, nice houses in the best neighborhoods of Cairo, cars and all the other amenities. And so they came and started work.
But then the German scientists began getting disturbing phone calls in the middle of the night, and threatening letters telling them to go home. And then some of them had unfortunate "accidents", and a couple, as they say in my wife's home state, "became shot".
Well, Nasser's pet Germans decided the climate in Egypt was too hot for them, packed their bags, and went back home. And Nasser's rocket program disappeared into the sands of the desert, never to be seen again.
Al Adab| 1.17.12 @ 10:58AM
John:
Inshallah. However, if a nuclear India or Pakistan is dangerous how much more so a N. Korea or Iran both even more unstable.
John786| 1.17.12 @ 11:39AM
Haji al- Adab,
It seems increasing real to me that it is America that acts in an irrational , nihilistic manner. No different from the terrorists: through terror you can bring change. I would caution people to keep on the moderate path.Engage with the Iranians give them their rights under the IAEA . The rapturers are sure to bring armegedon- this is what they seek. The Iranians are between a rock and a hard place. There will be no winners from this.
Al Adab| 1.17.12 @ 12:27PM
John:
You make a good point. The Iranians are facing a demographic collapse and have little to lose in bringing about an apocalypse. There is, as you know, a theological argument to be made for it. Action on the part of The West and other ME nations needs to be cautious and logical albeit their own self-interest is greatly at stake.
Occam's Tool| 1.18.12 @ 6:50PM
Right, John. How 'bout we engage with B-52s.
irish19| 1.18.12 @ 7:25PM
"B-52s."
Oldies but goodies, and probably more than up to the task.
Michael Tomlinson| 1.17.12 @ 7:01AM
John786 attacking Iran will be Obama's October surprise to save his floundering reelection effort.
Only a senile and dope addled Ron “ Allah Akbar ” Paul and his cultist would want and trust a nuclear armed Iran.
Carpe the Dope Ron
VonMisesJr| 1.17.12 @ 8:15AM
"Rules of Engagement" were devised to protect the ruling class. The militia men of West Virginia and Tennessee put an end to that when they shot British Commanders off their horses, shot from behind trees and retreated leading Redcoats into ambushes.
In an age where troops were Roman slaves from barbarian tribes, or serfs; the ruling class had no interest in their welfare. Today we fight Islamist and communist that do not fight by "rules of engagement." If Barrack can kill 30 people with a drone, why would any elitist in a rouge regime expect to be off limits?
Bob K.| 1.17.12 @ 9:23AM
Here is an opinion from their side of the world.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA14Ak01.html
They can pick and choose the same type of targets here and at more places which are harder to protect.
Stuart Koehl| 1.17.12 @ 10:28AM
I'm going to suggest that perhaps Russia's FSB had a hand in the matter. They're quite adroit at wet work and false flag operations, and aren't afraid to get their hands dirty.
But wait! Isn't Russia as close to an ally as Iran can get? Well, sure, but just because Russia is supplying Iran with nuclear technology doesn't mean Russia wants an apocalyptic Islamic state with nuclear weapons right on its doorstep. Providing Iran with the wherewithal to develop a bomb does three things: first, it drives the U.S. nuts; second, it binds Iran (and its oil and gas) closer to Russia; and third, it generates hard currency for Russia through Iranian purchases of nuclear technology.
So, if you're Russia, the trick is to keep the carrot of nuclear capability just out of Iran's reach. That can be done through sabotage (not just blowing up rocket facilities, but also creating and deploying the Stuxnet Worm) and assassination. If the FSB was behind Stuxnet, it was a true stroke of genius: sell Iran centrifuges and other nuclear equipment, then infect them with a worm that destroys the equipment, then sell more equipment to Iran; repeat as necessary.
Of course, it probably is Mossad. Israel pulled a similar trick against German scientists working on a ballistic missile project for Nasser back in the 1960s, but one should not limit the suspects only to Iran's enemies. Look also to its friends, who seem to prefer an almost-nuclear Iran today to a truly nuclear one tomorrow.
Al Adab| 1.17.12 @ 10:55AM
I take solace in the thought that just perhaps it was us or a representative of us. This is a cheaper way to prevent nuclear progress by a rogue nation. Sadly I doubt that this simple act is enough, but it may serve to delay. Nonetheless if all it does is delay the danger or "kick the can" then greater more decisive action is required.
Old Blevins| 1.17.12 @ 11:00AM
Methinks that Mr. Obama's withdrawal of US troops from Iraq was specifically designed to clear Iraqi airspace from US control. Gives Israel's airforce a clear shot at Iran. I also think that Israel has a few suprises in their military toybox that they can't wait to test out on the Iranian nuclear plants.
Timothy L. Pennell| 1.17.12 @ 11:13AM
You can't be this Stupid.
Old Blevins| 1.17.12 @ 12:37PM
Honestly, I hope you are right, and the near-term future (next couple of years) proves my above comments to be the ramblings of a fool.
nathan| 1.17.12 @ 11:06AM
President Bush nearly a decade ago declared war on "terror". Not on terrorists or any group of terrorists, but on "terror". Does coming up behind a car of a civilian scientist and putting a bomb on his car and killing him meet that definition? If Iran were to do the same to a civilian scientist in Dimora how would the west react? How would all of you react?
What is exactly in a court of law is that scientist guilty of? Anything? Any capital offense? Assuming you could capture him and bring him to trial, even in Israel, what would you charge him with? Prior to Pearl Harbor would the Japanese have justified in doing similar assaults against our scientists and how would we have reacted?
Iran lives in a dangerous neighborhood. There are concerns about Pakistan, having gone nuclear, is not all that stable. We have already done an act of unprovoked aggression against them (the 1953 overthrow of the Mossedegh government and putting in place and keeping in place a human rights abusing kleptomaniac shah) and we supported the Iraq attack against them that left over half a million dead. Israel has nukes. (When was the last time inspectors visited them?) Do the Iranians have a right of self defense given all they have been through and the aggression they have suffered? And yes 1953 is a long time ago but people in parts of the world like that have LONG memories. Those of you who don't think so need to get out more.
But again the last inspectors report was inconclusive as to what they are doing. We really don't know. And if you're honest , none of you do either.
JA| 1.17.12 @ 12:46PM
Turkey - a sunni muslim nation, as well as the other arab states - all sunni, will not sit by and allow Iran - Persian Shia - to develop a nuclear military capability. The Persians literally hate Arabs and consider them untermensch; the arabs know this. Turkey ruled over all the arab nations for 500 years during the Ottoman empire and they have the strongest military in that region. Their existence is a threat to Iran and Turkey will NEVER allow Iran to become the dominant force in the ME.
Don't be surprised if the Turks, Arab nations - with covert tech "advice" from Israel - are conducting these attacks and killing Iranian scientists.
Sunni Arabs have no problem murdering the heretical Shia.
Kingofthenet| 1.17.12 @ 1:03PM
It's an act of War if Iran can pin this on someone, with real evidence, but I agree with John this is being done to provoke a response by Iran that would green light an attack. By itself it's too little, too late.
Nick| 1.17.12 @ 5:04PM
Hey Kook!
I'm still waiting for your explanation as to when a fetus (Latin for unborn baby) becomes a child, precisely.
You are an expert on the subject, correct?
Quartermaster| 1.17.12 @ 6:30PM
He already did it. Quit acting like a moron. It's not his fault you can't read.
Nick| 1.17.12 @ 7:08PM
Quartermaster,
He has not answered it already.
Butt-out. This has nothing to do with you.
Have you finished that course in remedial English, yet?
Cabermon| 1.17.12 @ 5:58PM
Who doesn't want a nuclear-armed Persia on or near its border?
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Israel
The Gulf States
Russia and former Soviet Republics
"Round up the usual suspects!"
Iraq