TAMPA — If the election were held tomorrow — but then it
isn’t, is it? And that’s a pity. It would save the republic months
of agony. This one will almost surely be the nastiest election year
in living memory.
For the moment the conservative cause is once again
competitive in Florida, even though the
GOP, perversely, has put up a surprisingly weak presidential field
this cycle. According to a Quinnipiac
poll released last week, the likely Republican
presidential candidate would beat Barack O’Barnum 46 to 43 in
Florida if the election were held when these likely voters were
quizzed. (OK, Mitt Romney hasn’t sewed up the nomination yet, but
whom else would you want to put the mortgage money on just now? The
Republican boyfriend-of-the-month club has yet to produce anyone
who shows any prospect of heading him off.)
Liberal incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is in a
virtual tie with Fort Myers Congressman Connie Mack, the Republican
who leads in that party’s primary race by a mile. According to
Quinnipiac, Nelson is the current choice or 41 percent of
respondents, Mack the choice of 40. Mack has compiled a
conservative voting record in his three terms in the U.S. House.
Nelson is an Obama rubber stamp, who has voted for O’Barnum’s
stimulus slush fund, cap and trade, ObamaCare, spending without
end, amen. The whole disaster.
It’s way too soon for Republicans to start high-fiving.
But mere months ago Nelson and O’Barnum led in the polls in
Florida. Now Obama’s popularity is underwater, with 54 percent of
respondents saying they disapprove of the job he has done as
president. Only 44 percent of respondents in this poll say he
should be re-elected while 52 percent say he should seek another
job (perhaps this time one in the private sector, which O’Barnum,
with fingers crossed behind him, claims to love).
The fine print on O’Barnum’s Florida support holds no
surprises. Among black voters he’s the people’s choice. These folks
favor him 92-4 over Romney. Young voters go for our rookie
president by 51-39. White voters give Romney a 21 point advantage.
Hispanics are evenly split. Men favor Romney by 52-40 percent while
women fancy O’Barnum 46-41. The important independent vote, about
20 percent of the electorate in Florida, goes to O’Barnum
47-39.
While O’Barnum wins among the youngsters, seasoned voters
go for Romney. Floridians 50 to 64 chose Romney by 49-40, over 65s
are for Romney by 53-39. These mature folks are important in
Florida where voters over 50 make up 62 percent of the
electorate.
The importance of all this is that there is no path to a
Republican presidential victory (for better or worse, the
conservative political agenda is in the hands of this often timid
and feckless party) that does not go through Florida with its 29
electoral votes. O’Barnum can win re-election without carrying
Florida. Romney, or whichever of the boyfriends turns in an upset
between now and August, cannot. If you don’t believe me, run the
numbers yourself. Now Florida is in play.
Until 2008, when so many Florida voters got rolled, as did
many millions elsewhere, by the post-racial, post-partisan, kumbaya
moonshine of the little hustler from Chicago, Florida had been
reliably red. (Who picked these colors for the political
philosophies and parties anyway? Shouldn’t the far left party be
red?) In the last 10 presidential elections Florida has gone
Republican seven times. The only Democrats to win in the last
decade have been O’Barnum in ‘08, Billy-Bob in ‘96, and Jimmy-Bob
in 76.
The losing Republican presidential candidates in Florida
have been John McCain, Bob “Bob” Dole, and Gerald Ford. I won’t
attempt to discourage any readers who believe they spot a trend
here.
Conservative candidates ran the table in Florida in 2010,
from an assertively conservative Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate,
through the entire Florida cabinet, the governor’s office, and
countless members of the Florida Legislature. The Quinnipiac poll
give some evidence that conservative enthusiasm is still
here.
The late great Alabama football coach Bear Bryant said a
tie is like kissing your sister. And a tie is what we have now in
Florida if the Quinnipiac sample is representative. But the trend
is toward the right over a few months ago. The way is here for
Florida to return to the red column. But only after a brutal 10
months. A 10 months, win or lose, that most of us may wish to
forget. Tomorrow can’t get here soon enough.
