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Political Hay
Would It Were Tomorrow
Republicans can’t in 2012 without winning Florida. Latest numbers show they’d do just that — if the vote were held today.
TAMPA — If the election were held tomorrow — but then it isn’t, is it? And that’s a pity. It would save the republic months of agony. This one will almost surely be the nastiest election year in living memory.
For the moment the conservative cause is once again competitive in Florida, even though the GOP, perversely, has put up a surprisingly weak presidential field this cycle. According to a Quinnipiac poll released last week, the likely Republican presidential candidate would beat Barack O’Barnum 46 to 43 in Florida if the election were held when these likely voters were quizzed. (OK, Mitt Romney hasn’t sewed up the nomination yet, but whom else would you want to put the mortgage money on just now? The Republican boyfriend-of-the-month club has yet to produce anyone who shows any prospect of heading him off.)
Liberal incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is in a virtual tie with Fort Myers Congressman Connie Mack, the Republican who leads in that party’s primary race by a mile. According to Quinnipiac, Nelson is the current choice or 41 percent of respondents, Mack the choice of 40. Mack has compiled a conservative voting record in his three terms in the U.S. House. Nelson is an Obama rubber stamp, who has voted for O’Barnum’s stimulus slush fund, cap and trade, ObamaCare, spending without end, amen. The whole disaster.
It’s way too soon for Republicans to start high-fiving. But mere months ago Nelson and O’Barnum led in the polls in Florida. Now Obama’s popularity is underwater, with 54 percent of respondents saying they disapprove of the job he has done as president. Only 44 percent of respondents in this poll say he should be re-elected while 52 percent say he should seek another job (perhaps this time one in the private sector, which O’Barnum, with fingers crossed behind him, claims to love).
The fine print on O’Barnum’s Florida support holds no surprises. Among black voters he’s the people’s choice. These folks favor him 92-4 over Romney. Young voters go for our rookie president by 51-39. White voters give Romney a 21 point advantage. Hispanics are evenly split. Men favor Romney by 52-40 percent while women fancy O’Barnum 46-41. The important independent vote, about 20 percent of the electorate in Florida, goes to O’Barnum 47-39.
While O’Barnum wins among the youngsters, seasoned voters go for Romney. Floridians 50 to 64 chose Romney by 49-40, over 65s are for Romney by 53-39. These mature folks are important in Florida where voters over 50 make up 62 percent of the electorate.
The importance of all this is that there is no path to a Republican presidential victory (for better or worse, the conservative political agenda is in the hands of this often timid and feckless party) that does not go through Florida with its 29 electoral votes. O’Barnum can win re-election without carrying Florida. Romney, or whichever of the boyfriends turns in an upset between now and August, cannot. If you don’t believe me, run the numbers yourself. Now Florida is in play.
Until 2008, when so many Florida voters got rolled, as did many millions elsewhere, by the post-racial, post-partisan, kumbaya moonshine of the little hustler from Chicago, Florida had been reliably red. (Who picked these colors for the political philosophies and parties anyway? Shouldn’t the far left party be red?) In the last 10 presidential elections Florida has gone Republican seven times. The only Democrats to win in the last decade have been O’Barnum in ‘08, Billy-Bob in ‘96, and Jimmy-Bob in 76.
The losing Republican presidential candidates in Florida have been John McCain, Bob “Bob” Dole, and Gerald Ford. I won’t attempt to discourage any readers who believe they spot a trend here.
Conservative candidates ran the table in Florida in 2010, from an assertively conservative Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate, through the entire Florida cabinet, the governor’s office, and countless members of the Florida Legislature. The Quinnipiac poll give some evidence that conservative enthusiasm is still here.
The late great Alabama football coach Bear Bryant said a tie is like kissing your sister. And a tie is what we have now in Florida if the Quinnipiac sample is representative. But the trend is toward the right over a few months ago. The way is here for Florida to return to the red column. But only after a brutal 10 months. A 10 months, win or lose, that most of us may wish to forget. Tomorrow can’t get here soon enough.
About the Author
Larry Thornberry is a writer in Tampa.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (21) | Leave a comment
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Appleby| 1.16.12 @ 6:41AM
Is there anybody else we could vote for? Frankly, my dear, I am sick and tired of all these people on both sides of the equation, and it's almost a year until the election.
Jack in Wi.| 1.16.12 @ 7:22AM
Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, are just more of the same. Big government people who think that they would be there to trim around the edges. This country needs far more radical surgery then cutting the toe nails of government. Gingrich and Santorum are particularly disgusting, in that they are both chicken hwak warmongers and pigs at the lobbyist trough who have enriched themselves for tens of millions by working for the worst lobbies in Washington.
TrueBlue | 1.17.12 @ 1:57PM
And Paul would result in a definate nuclear Iran along with terrorist organizations around the world shortly thereafter with his non-intervention mentality. It works great on paper, just not in reality... kind of like most of the utopian projects of the Left.
If it wasn't for the one glaring hole in his message I'd happily vote for Dr. Paul, but we cannot ignore the rest of the world like we were able to pre-WWII. Current methods of transportation makes the world far smaller than it was back then.
TrueBlue | 1.17.12 @ 1:58PM
By the same measure, I'd still vote for Ron Paul over Obama. Just so we're clear.
Brian| 1.16.12 @ 6:44AM
The Florida repub party is worse then the Democrats. 30 years of wasted votes on that rotten bunch.
VonMisesJr| 1.16.12 @ 8:40AM
Larry is a thorn in our side. If he believes the liberal's polls, I have land in the Everglades to sell him.
The seniors that dominate Florida are about to find out the definition of "Death Panel," and the "Young" voters could buy a house for a song if they only had a job and enough money for breakfast. If the Hispanic (a hard working people that have fled Cuba and Mexico) vote for Obama, then they are predominantly LaRaza and plan to take it over knowing the Democrats are too scared to fight for anything but a handout.
Every Republican candidate, including Ron Paul, is infinitely better than Obuma. Besides the black vote, the only group he is likely to win are the seniors in cronic pain who want a government funded mercy killing.
JimH| 1.16.12 @ 11:36AM
VM, your Florida demographics are somewhat out of date. It is no longer primarily God's waiting room. Up until the recession the state has had major growth, primarily of families. It is an interesting place in that, at least in the area I live in outside of Tampa, most people, like myself, seem to have come from somewhere else. Big problem in this state is that though they dominate state and county government the GOP establishment is seen for what they are, incompetent crooks. Scott and Rubio succeeded by running as outsiders to the party organization. The state GOP is in need of a major Tea Party/small government led house cleaning.
JmsA| 1.16.12 @ 11:45AM
Cubans don't vote democrat. Mexicans do. Cubans are not "Raza" (mestizo) as are Mexicans. Check your facts. Without the Cuban-American vote, Republicans don't have a prayer in Florida. Had Cubans in Florida, and in particular Dade County, the largest county in Florida, not voted for Bush, you'd have had Al Bore, I mean Gore, as president. It was the Cubans in Dade that stopped cold Gore's vote recount shenanigans. Get your facts straight.
JmsA| 1.16.12 @ 12:16PM
"Cuban-American Voting Trends
at 8:49 AM Wednesday, September 23, 2009
An excellent analysis by the Swing State Project:
Obama won the five boroughs of New York City by 59%: a 4 to 1 margin. He won Cook County (Chicago) by 53%, with more than three-fourths of the vote. In contrast, Obama took 58% of Miami-Dade county - less than the amount by which he won New York City. The 2008 Democratic performance in Miami is comparable to their performance in cities such as Dallas (57% of the vote) and Sacramento (58% of the vote).
Much of this is due to the Cuban vote, the city's largest demographic group. Refugees from Castro's Cuba, staunchly anti-Communist, and faithful Republicans ever since the Bay of Pigs fiasco; Cubans vote as strongly Republican as Jews vote Democratic. In 2000, George W. Bush won about four out of five Cubans, helped by Cuban anger over Al Gore's role in the Elian Gonzalez affair. In 2008 Obama won around 35% of their vote, based on exit polls. This was the best performance of a Democrat with Cubans in recent memory.
Their influence ensures that Miami remains a competitive, Democratic-leaning city. Democrats usually end up winning it, but their margins are severely cut. And occasionally it will turn up in the Republican column - as happened during the 2004 Senate race. There, Mel Martinez, a Bush ally, won Miami-Dade on his way to a one percent victory.
Democrats often hopefully comment that demographic shifts will slowly move Cubans leftward, as a new generation of Cubans, less concerned with Castro and communism, replaces their more militant elders. Perhaps. But that process will be the work of decades, not a single election cycle. For the moment the Cuban vote remains strongly Republican.
In 2008 the Democrats challenged two entrenched, Republican congressmen in South Florida: the Cuban Diaz-Balart brothers. The races were closely watched, so much that the New York Times Magazine aired an article dedicated to them. In the end, both Republicans won by margins larger than expected. Their continuing presence points to the steadfastness of the Cuban Republican vote.
EDITOR'S NOTE: Throughout the year, some political analysts have vaticinated that President Obama's numbers can only go up amongst Cuban-American voters.
That's far from the truth.
President Obama's 2008 performance of 35% amongst Cuban-Americans tied Bill Clinton's 1996 electoral performance, which came on the heels of his signing of the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act (LIBERTAD Act).
However, just four years later, as a result of the events surrounding Elian Gonzalez, Democratic nominee Al Gore received less than 20% of the Cuban-American vote.
A significant drop.
President Obama has -- thus far -- honored his campaign promise of easing family travel and remittances for Cuban-Americans, while maintaining trade and travel sanctions on the Castro regime until it unconditionally releases political prisoners, embraces human rights and undertakes democratic reforms.
We hope he keeps this promise."
VonMisesJr| 1.16.12 @ 2:06PM
JmsA, My point, although perhaps sarcastic, is that the MSM and other liberals lump Hispanic into one homogeneous group. I was born in a Portuguese neighborhood and the people were extremely hard working and even out cleaning the sidewalks in the summer. I have met a lady from Cuba at TEA Party rallies who saw Castro's Utopia. she and a Russian guy I met in the same venue were the most convincing of all patriots. My neighbor is of Mexican decent and a ex-Marine. My point was simply that all these good people who are hard working and mostly conservative are totally mischaracterized by the media.
We also have a fair population of Puerta Rican and South Americans in my state, and they are fine people. But it is the Democrats that want to portrary them as all LaRaza and MS-13 gang members trying to retake the Southwest. No offense intended, and if you understood my intent, it was to make a positive characterization of Hispanics. One of my best friends is Dominican and I could care less what color or race someone is, as long as they are not liberals. VMJr.
JimH| 1.16.12 @ 2:14PM
I agree. It's been my experience that people who escaped from behind the former Iron Curtain or other Worker's Paradises best know the bogusness of the left's nostrums.
JmsA| 1.16.12 @ 11:07PM
Thank you, VonMisesJr. I was not offended, and I don't believe you were trying to put anyone down. Generally, I respect other's opinions, and as such, though possibly a bit forceful at times, I just try to clarify the facts. All the best.
Zak Klemmer | 1.16.12 @ 8:30PM
My father was born in Czechoslovakia and immigrated to America when he was 6- the same age as Elian Gonzalez, a fact that I have not forgotten. Since it was Communist Party member Alger Hiss' betrayal of Eastern Europe to the USSR as a negotiator at Yalta I have never and will never support the Democratic Party. Not until they purge all the social justice, Progressives and communists out of their party.
Purp| 1.16.12 @ 9:50PM
Grow up... that is such nonsense to blame an entire party for one traitor.
Appleby| 1.16.12 @ 11:14AM
Not including Ron Paul. I never want to hear anything else about Ron Paul as long as I live.
RCV| 1.16.12 @ 12:10PM
If there is a less insightful columnist than Thornberry on TAS, I missed him or her.
Kingofthenet| 1.16.12 @ 6:04PM
President Obama: Are you the real Republican nominee?
Brian: No.
President Obama: No? Then why do you dress like him?
Brian: He's a symbol... that we don't have to be afraid of scum like you.
President Obama: Yeah, you do, Brian. You *really* do!
Zak Klemmer | 1.16.12 @ 8:32PM
I am voting for Ron Paul in the Arizona Primary along with my wife and our two 30 something adult children.
RCV| 1.17.12 @ 1:10AM
Well, there's four votes.
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