-
Cubs Lose! Cubs Lose!
May 6, 2013 | 28 comments
-
The Perfect Country Singer
April 29, 2013 | 24 comments
-
Searching for the Duke
April 25, 2013 | 106 comments
-
Carlos’s Moment of Clarity
April 16, 2013 | 27 comments
-
Civil Blight in Old Blighty
April 15, 2013 | 24 comments
The Nation's Pulse
The First Big Test Yet to Come
It’s not over until a big fat state has sung.
TAMPA – We have the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries behind us now and as a result we know, well, just about what we did before these events took place. The Republican presidential picture is hardly more sorted out than it was before we wrapped our Christmas packages.
The conventional wisdom (which is always conventional but much less often wise) remains that Mitt Romney will outlast all his opponents and will, with minimum esprit de corps, be nominated in August in Tampa.
Lots of fine Americans live in both Iowa and New Hampshire, I want to make clear. But these are small states, very much unlike the nation at large, with some quirky voting rules. In a recent edition of the Wall Street Journal, a Michael Barone analysis of how untypical the Iowa caucuses are to what follows carries one of those headlines that are so good it makes it almost unnecessary to read the story. To wit, “As Iowa Goes, So Goes Iowa.” Just so. If you don’t think so, ask President Huckabee.
New Hampshire, where I have friends and a place I love, relishes its reputation for eccentricity and colorful contrariness. The kind of place that would give more than 40 percent of its vote to Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman. This makes it a great place to visit, but hardly a national political weather vane. (OK, it’s not as wacko as neighboring Vermont, where two major voting blocs are foundation presidents and lesbian goatherds.)
There are so many examples, but I’ll share just one. With my morning coffee Monday one of the networks brought me one of those voters-emerging-from-a-car interviews from Concord, New Hampshire, where a comely young woman in stylish winter dress told the interviewer that, “Last time I voted for Obama, but this time I’m leaning toward Ron Paul.”
As Dave Barry might say, I’m not making this up. All of this makes you wonder why both national parties have gone to the mat to ensure that Iowa and New Hampshire continue to lead off the voting. There may be a reason for this, but not an obvious one. And almost certainly not a good one. My guess is sheer perversity.
South Carolina, larger and more like the lower 48, will provide more of an idea after Jan. 21. But the first big test in a big state with demographics much like the nation takes place in Florida January 31. Florida, the fourth largest state in the nation, is bearing down on 20 million residents and has more than twice the population of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina combined. It has more than four million registered Republicans, about the population of Iowa and New Hampshire together.
All the important electoral demographics exist in Florida — racial groups, social classes, educational levels, political inclinations, etc. — in very similar proportions that exist in the nation at large. When we know who the winner is in Florida, we’ll know something.
Florida will be the first all-Republican primary. Both New Hampshire and South Carolina allow independents to vote in party primaries. (Is this odd or what? If a voter wishes to be “independent,” what business does he have helping choose the candidate of a party he is independent of?)
Florida’s heft makes it a little strange that hardly any of the national pundits, pollsters, and talking heads have made much mention of Florida in a sea of words and pictures from the two political boutiques that have now had their say. Finally, in the first measurement since fall, comes Quinnipiac with a poll saying that 36 percent of likely Florida Republican primary voters favor Mitt Romney, 24 percent go for Gingrich, Rick Santorum gets 16 percent, and Ron Paul is the choice of 10 percent. Both Rick Perry at five percent and Jon Huntsman at two finish behind don’t know at seven percent.
These numbers don’t inconvenience the conventional wisdom much. But the wild card is that 54 percent of respondents say they aren’t firmly attached to their choice and could decide to go another way before the 31st.
Iowa and New Hampshire have been fun. And they’ve given newsreaders in the relentless 24-hours news cycle something to talk about. But by Groundhog Day, if Florida voters don’t see their shadows, especially those 54 percent who haven’t really made up their minds, we may get a real hint if there is going to be at least four years of a Romney presidency or not.
About the Author
Larry Thornberry is a writer in Tampa.
Clint| 1.11.12 @ 6:36AM
We Are Being Set Up By The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
Romney Had The Third Lowest Job Growth As Governor Of Massachusetts.
Romney Is A Job Gravedigger.
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To South Carolina.
Jack in Wi.| 1.11.12 @ 7:31AM
The football playoffs are almost over. It is down to the only 2 guys who ever had a chance to beat Obama. Willard Romney and Ron Paul poll the best against obama head to head. One of them will be nominee. It has been so since the beginning. If there is no accomadation between these 2 branchs of the party, it is most likely 4 more years of Obama. If Romney is the nominee and still takes the same positions about war and the Fed, I am sittingthis one out. Romney right now, means more of the same. The Bush's, Dole, Mc Cain and then Romney, no thank you. Enough is enough. They don't call the Republicans the stupid party for nothing.
Mike Rogers | 1.11.12 @ 11:02AM
Together again, naturally.
Appleby| 1.11.12 @ 6:55AM
Let's pray that the bigger states bring out a larger percentage of people who have been paying attention the last 3 years, and have been doing something besides marching up and down yelling Hey Hey Ho Ho and demanding things.
bill| 1.11.12 @ 8:35AM
Hello, Romney lovers:
It is not over yet!
Romney stole IA, bought NH, and will be defeated in SC.
SC is the land of liberty and free-enterprise. No country for "big government liberal RINO" like Romney or Santorum.
We must STOP Romney because:
-pro-abortion
-pro gay marriage
-pro gun control
-RomneyCare
-Supports climate change
And this why Santorum should be defeated in SC:
-opposed "Right to Work" state law, favoring big labor unions over worker' choice
-voted for raising debt celling 8 times
-NCLB
-voted against free trade
We must support Rick Perry. He has southern heritage and conservative credentials to win in SC. Gingrich will be my second choice.
Winning NH as a GOP contender means nothing. Success of GOP nominee depends on the winning plurality votes in the South. The biggest test yet to come to Romney, SC. He'll be sucked.
It's a whole new ball game!
Mike Rogers | 1.11.12 @ 11:05AM
If you can get Perry over the top in SC, I will cheer.
If you can get Gingrich over the top in SC, I will also cheer.
Frankly, I'll take Santorum's transgressions against conservatism over Romney's - he's a decent man.
bill| 1.11.12 @ 12:13PM
SC is a "Right to Work" state, Santorum VOTED AGAINST "Right to Work " bill time and time. He cannot win in SC because he is a RINO.
Rick Perry will win in SC, Gingrich will take the 2nd place in the ballot.
RCV| 1.11.12 @ 2:12PM
Here's a dose of reality, bill. The latest South Carolina polls - and these are before Romney's win in New Hampshire. Your guy Perry's blind insistence on staying in the race, and Gingrich's personal vendetta will insure that Romney wins by a plurality in South Carolina. And then, it's over. If conservatives lose South Carolina, they're finsished for the 2012 nomination. Are you guys really too dumb not to see that?
PPP (D) 1/5 - 1/7
Romney 30
Santorum 19
Gingrich 23
Paul 9
Perry 5
Huntsman 4
Spread Romney +7
Rasmussen Reports 1/5 - 1/5
Romney 27
Santorum 24
Gingrich 18
Paul 11
Perry 5
Huntsman 2
Spread Romney +3
CNN/Time 1/4 - 1/5
Romney 37
Santorum 19
Gingrich 18
Paul 12
Perry 5
Huntsman 1
Spread Romney +18
Mr. Thornberry, who was surprised that a World War I movie had graphic violence in it, believes that conservatives can wait until Florida to get serious. He lives in his own bubble, oblivious to reality.
Clint| 1.11.12 @ 2:15PM
Uh Oh !
Here It Comes.
Winning Our Future | King of Bain "When Mitt Romney Came To Town"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_evS-T-c35M
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To South Carolina.
bill| 1.11.12 @ 3:19PM
Hello RCV, polls change all the time. SC is different than NH and IA. Majority of SC voters are conservative Evangelic voters. Romney's liberal views on abortion, gay marriage, and climate change will irk the voters. Santorum voted against the "Right to Work" bill, and SC has a dispute over Boeing Plant with big labors, and Santorum's surrender to the big labors will cost him and he cannot win there.
That left Ron Paul, Gingrich, and Perry.
Ron Paul cannot win with his foreign policy in SC.
Gingrich has no money or organization.
Rick Perry has southern heritage and conservative credentials. He can win in SC, despite of Romney's money bomb and smear campaign.
Lawrence of Lutz| 1.11.12 @ 8:51AM
What does the "lil man" behind the curtain hold over the 'publican party? Are they in a splinter of the dems or do they just don't want to lead? What do they see in the future that makes them want to lose or continue the "progressive" policies of the present?
Should Romney win, Obama care will NOT be repealed, he will want to "fix" it. Borrowing money will continue and our grandchildren will suffer.
JimH| 1.11.12 @ 8:52AM
Larry, though originally from NYC, I’ve lived in the Tampa area for 11 years. The Florida primary has another notable difference from Iowa and N.H. in that the voters actually have to be Republicans. The Republicans themselves seem to comprise several groups. One is a significant contingent of small and medium size businessmen; another is conservative Christian (largely but not exclusively Evangelical). There are also large numbers of active and retired military. Overlaying these there are many hunters and target shooters. Among younger voters, particularly in the universities there is a significant libertarian wing. Romney clearly appeals to the business crowd. I’m not sure how comfortable non-Mormon Christians are with him. I think if Paul’s anti abortion, pro gun, anti gay marriage positions were better known he might garner larger support outside the college crowd. His reluctance to send troops on debatable foreign deployments is appreciated by those who experience the hardships of this first hand. The prevailing opinion on energy among the GOP seems to be drill everywhere but here. I don’t know how that will play among the various candidates.
Mimi| 1.11.12 @ 8:58AM
Larry...Thanks for the heads up on the state of Florida being the FIRST all Republican Primary.
Therin lies the truth as WHO the Republican nominee will most likely be.
Here is a question....Did the Dems plan on picking our choice by sending out voters to choose Romney in the 2 early primaries?
I guess we'll have to wait until Jan31 after the Florida race to know the truth!!
In the meantime Conservatives....DON'T BE DISHEARTENED...It's not over and stay informed and SMART !
If the Libs & DEMS want to take part in the Republican Primary and have a say....Let them enroll Republican, long before any PRIMARY !!
RCV| 1.11.12 @ 2:41PM
.... and the latest Florida polls:
Poll Date Sample Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul Perry Huntsman Spread
SurveyUSA 1/8 - 1/8
Romney 36
Gingrich 25
Santorum 17
Paul 7
Perry n.a.
Huntsman n.a.
Spread Romney +11
Quinnipiac 1/4 - 1/8
Romney 36
Gingrich 24
Santorum 16
Paul 10
Perry 5
Huntsman 2
Spread Romney +12
Mimi| 1.11.12 @ 5:41PM
RCV...and the winner is...
Survey USA= Romney 36
Conservative =42
SPREAD= 8
Quinnipiac Romney 36
Conservative 45
Spread =9
RCV| 1.11.12 @ 7:06PM
I agree with you, Mimi, that most of GOP voters don't want Romney. But the conservative candidates have insisted, for their own reasons, of letting him divide the field. They aren't going to be asked to vote for Romney or "a Conservative". They're going to be asked to vote for one of the candidates on the ballot, and if conservatives continue to allow their voice to be dissapated, it is Romney you will end up with. Not hard to figure out. Ask Newt, and Perry and Rick why they can't see it. At least Bachmann was smart enough to figure it out early. It may too late by the time the other egos get the message.
bill| 1.11.12 @ 9:06AM
Romney can run but he cannot hide his record as being a "big government liberal MA moderate RINO." He bought NH but will be thwarted in SC and FL.
It's South, the land of liberty.
VonMisesJr| 1.11.12 @ 9:51AM
Thank you Larry! I have been shouting this on TAS for a couple weeks. I got so fed up with the GOP leadership that I registered Independent in my state, and then found out I could no longer vote in the primary. So even though I vote Republican as a conservative, I cannot voice my protest through registration or I shoot myself in the foot.
Like you, I love NH and the White Mountains, and I have been going there for over three decades. It is very different 30 years later when the Bostonians found out they could have a ski house just a few hours away. Many moved there to retire for the lower taxes. A conservative friend of mine in NH and we-to-do businessman calls people from Boston "Massholes." These are the people that voted for Romney and Huntsman.
Florida will be the first big test. But as Perry and perhaps Newt or Santorum are weeded out, the conservative vote will also be concentrated. And the future results will not be indicative of the New Hampshire primary.
Al Adab| 1.11.12 @ 10:16AM
Now on to the states which have the electoral votes we need to wim in November. Iowa may have helped but NH went as expected although Romney finsihed well below expectations. Failed to meet expectations we might say in his evaluation.
SC and FL are critical to the election so the voters in those states need to be heard. Very dissappointed in SC Gov. but I understand every one is for sale if the price is right. Cabinet post or some such. The time is now to identify our Conservative with principle.
Mike Rogers | 1.11.12 @ 11:10AM
I have commented (and been castigated) elsewhere on the apparently illogical endorsements of Romney by otherwise conservative ladies, such as Christine O'Donnell, and Nikki Haley, but there are signs abounding that Romney has been generous either pre or post the 2010 election with a bunch of his endorsers - EG Scott brown of MA.
Hence, I recall Reagan's statement that the world's second oldest profession closely resembles the first.
RCV| 1.11.12 @ 2:44PM
Al Adab - If conservatives don't unite and identify their candidate NOW, it is over and blaming it in the SC Governor "selling out" won't change that. See the South Carolina and Florida polls above. I have been utterly astounded at how inept and disorganized GOP conservatives have been and how they have handed the nomination to Romney by their own conduct. Unbelievable.
Al Adab| 1.11.12 @ 2:54PM
Conservatives are doing a wonderful job, for the Democrats. We are, and always have been, very good at killing our own wounded. When 70+% of GOP voters vote against or for someone other, their votes are diluted by the number of alternatives. I hope that SC and FL will define the Conservative candidate or it will be too late.
Dmac| 1.11.12 @ 4:50PM
This has happened because we have wrongly beleived that the Republicans understood after 2008 what we wanted. Problem for us is our own ignorance as the Republicans are once again giving us what they want.
Problem number two is the Tea Party should have made itself a true legitimate third party nominating its own people.
What its coming down to, there's going to be a revolution within the next 5 years or there won't be a United States of America because too many people and too many states are sick of Washington's lack of understanding for its own people. Washington has become a rich mans whore.
Mike Rogers | 1.11.12 @ 11:12AM
Unlike Larry, I think that IA and NH provide an opportunity that big states do not in terms of the public being able to meet and question the candidates - BTW, something that Romney does not handle well. Where the process breaks down is that the NH primary is open to independents, many of whom are simply undeclared Democrats, and DON'T DOUBT ME, many of Ron Paul's supporters, as well as Romney and Huntsman's, are undeclared Democrats.
Franco| 1.11.12 @ 12:18PM
Dear Sweet Pumpernickel Jesus, let it stop...Obama will eat Romney alive (if he gets the nomination), so let's just prepare for Gulag Time, shall we, comrades?
David| 1.11.12 @ 12:19PM
All states should have repub primaries for registered repub ONLY. To do anything less is stupid. It allows all kind of chicanery by dems and independents. We are so worried about voter fraud, but won't fix what can fix about the system.
Cheeseburger in Paradise| 1.11.12 @ 12:29PM
Out of Florida, any of the "second tier" can emerge as a winner. Remember, this is the state that sent Mr. Rubio to Washington over a very surprised mainline Republican party, and a rather embarrased Charlie Crist. I think we have a very knowlegable electorate, judging by the pickup conversations I have had around town. I think there will be some surprises come Feb 1st. Early voting begins the 17th!
David| 1.11.12 @ 12:43PM
Romney was really smart the past congressional election cycle. He came out early in support (verbally and financially) of very conservative candidates in their primary races. Now, people like Nicki Haley feel they OWE him their endorsements.
The same happened when Palin endorsed McCain in his last senate bid. She FELT she OWED him for choosing her as VP pick.
I hope conservatives and repubs understand what is going on when recently elected conservatives start endorsing Romney. I hope the voters realize those people FEEL they OWE Romney for his support - and early support at that.
Yep, Romney was smart to do what he did. Let's hope the voters are even smarter and turn out that RINO before it is too late.
bill| 1.11.12 @ 1:10PM
SC and FL will be the game changers in the GOP race. Romney will lose both states to Rick Perry, and Perry will emerge as the GOP front runner, and Gingrich will be in the 2nd place in the ballot in both states, threatening once rising contender, Romney, who will fade away as the GOP primary on Super Tuesday unfold.
My Choice:
President: Rick Perry
VP: Newt Gingrich
wodiej| 1.11.12 @ 1:25PM
I like both and would love to see Romney knocked off his elitist high horse.
RCV| 1.11.12 @ 7:08PM
What you will get:
GOP Presidential Candidate: Mitt Romney
GOP VP Candidate: Marco Rubio or Rick Perry
bill| 1.11.12 @ 9:40PM
RCV, you're mixing apple and oranges. Perry is a conservative and Romney is a corporate-democrat.
After SC, Romney will evaporate, it'll be Perry all over.
RCV| 1.12.12 @ 7:02PM
Bill, you don't understand politics. If it will help him win, Romney will add Perry to the ticket, and Perry will accept.
Not only is Romney not evaporating in South Carolina and Florida, his strength is increasing there daily. As the perception of his inevitability grows, those who want the GOP to win climb aboard.
wodiej| 1.11.12 @ 1:25PM
I hope these folks have more sense than Iowa and NH but that remains to be seen.
Ralph Hornsby| 1.11.12 @ 5:07PM
Ron Paul's secret weapon in South Carolina--
ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY!!
Charleston Air Force Base
Coast Guard Base
Fort Jackson-Army's largest initial entry training center in the U.S.
Marine Corps Air Station
Marine Corps Recruit Depot
McEntire Joint National Guard Base
Naval Weapons Station
Shaw Air Force Base
South Carolina State Guard
Clint| 1.11.12 @ 7:52PM
" The New Hampshire Gazette
The Chickenhawk Hall Of Shame
name:
Willard Mitt Romney
rank:
Chickenhawk First Class with Distinguished Fleeing Cross
date-of-birth:
March 12, 1947
home state:
Michigan
missed opportunity:
Vietnam War
excuse:
None to speak of
preferred activity:
Trying to talk people into becoming Mormons
occupation:
Climbing ambition's greased pole
When your daddy's a Governor and a Cabinet Secretary, it's amazing how your odds of being drafted diminish."
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To South Carolina.
POST American| 1.11.12 @ 11:20PM
---------------------FINAL WORD-----------------------
"Again, NOTICE, as the campaign
approaches the REAL issues disappear."
--And with the passage and implementation
of NDAA 1031 ---you too might be 'disappearing'.
------------------HEAR THE CALL!---------------------
RETRO-active IMPEACHMENT of our
past 4 CFR-Rockefeller sleaze op administrations
Swift siezure, AUDIT, prosecution and
abolition of the private, USURY feuled
'Federal' Reserve
Immediate X-pulsion of the PRIVATE
world banking and EUGENICS borg U.N.
Immediate siezure, and thorough, sustained,
unflinching AUDIT, examination, prosecution and ABOLITION
of the tax free foundations and NGOs
Immediate passage of legislation definitively
criminalizing ANY and ALL stealth tainting,
contamination, and/or weaponization of food,
water, air or meds for 'social engineering'
(ie EUGENICS and soft kill inter-generational genocide)
Knowing complicity in these things bringing
10 years without parole. The funding, direct
engineering, direction and implementation
thereof ---the DEATH PENALTY
----------------HUAC/ Nuremberg 2012---------------
ANY QUESTIONS?