-
Consternated Conferences
May 13, 2013 | 19 comments
-
Ten Years Without Saddam
March 19, 2013 | 130 comments
-
Beyond Palestine
March 16, 2013 | 0 comments
-
Election 2012
November 6, 2012 | 67 comments
-
Toward a Neo-Reaganite Marco Rubio
April 26, 2012 | 190 comments
A Further Perspective
Who’s on Third?
Why Huntsman and Santorum are looking a lot better than Gingrich.
CONCORD, New Hampshire — If today’s primary is a poker game, Mitt Romney is sitting on the tall stack and folding every hand. His extremely risk-averse strategy — he holds well-choreographed rallies but rarely takes questions, either from voters or from the press — is starting to annoy some Granite Staters.
At a Rick Santorum event in Nashua yesterday, a questioner praised Santorum for being genuine and open to taking questions, and said she was annoyed that Romney wouldn’t. This wasn’t the sort of socially conservative voter who would be a natural Santorum constituent — she went on to self-identify as a marijuana user and ask about pot legalization. The polls bolster the sense one gets on the ground; like the poker player sacrificing all the blinds and/or antes (depending on what game we’re playing), Romney’s lead has been slowly ticking away.
It probably won’t matter; the game ends today, and Romney will almost certainly still win. If the polls are right, Ron Paul is holding steady in second place; the real fight is for third, where Santorum, Jon Huntsman, and Newt Gingrich could all conceivably land.
Huntsman’s late boom underscores the upside potential he squandered with an ill-conceived strategy from the start; rather than emphasize his fairly conservative record, he instead courted the elite media in a play for independents. This is the strategy that Huntsman’s top adviser, John Weaver, pursued in John McCain’s 2000 campaign; McCain did win New Hampshire, but he quickly hit a dead end. McCain’s 2008 campaign only succeeded after firing Weaver, who in between the two McCain campaigns worked briefly for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, seemingly out of spite.
If not for Ron Paul, who no one would confuse with a moderate despite his appeal to non-Republicans, Huntsman might be near the front of the pack. He makes an pitch to war-weary voters that there’s clearly an appetite for — hence Paul’s strength — while eschewing Paul’s blanket hostility to America’s role as a global military power. Huntsman emphasizes that “we do have something to show for our efforts” in Afghanistan. “We’ve got the Taliban run out of power; al Qaeda has been dismantled, they’re in sanctuaries, Osama bin Laden is no longer around,” Huntsman says in his stump speech, which I caught at a townhall in Keene on Sunday. “We’ve had free elections; we’ve strengthened civil society. We’ve helped the police; we’ve helped the military. We have done what we can do as people — I want those troops to come home.”
This has obvious appeal to a significant slice of the electorate, and if Huntsman makes it into third today it will be in part because he’s broken through near the end of the campaign by coupling this message with an image as a competent conservative. That third place is the best he can hope for is testament to the failure of his early strategy of what Tim Carney has correctly identified as liberal identity-politics signaling, marked by his well-known declaration on Twitter: “To be clear. I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy.”
Newt Gingrich, by contrast, whose record is in many ways substantively to the left of Huntsman’s, is styling himself as the red-meat candidate. At a town hall event yesterday in Manchester, he accused President Obama of “Saul Alinsky radicalism” and called him “the most radical president in history” within the first few minutes of his speech. He later hit Mitt Romney as a “Massachusetts moderate” who can’t draw a contrast with Obama; in the press availability after the town hall, a reporter asked why a Massachusetts moderate can’t draw a contrast with the most radical president in American history. Gingrich answered that healthcare would be Romney’s Achilles’ heel on the contrast-drawing front, which is true, but the exchange laid bare how over-the-top Newt’s rhetoric can be. One gets the feeling that this erstwhile friend of Nancy Pelosi’s and Al Sharpton’s doth protest too much.
Gingrich has been sinking in the polls, though he’s still close to Huntsman and Santorum; his late endorsement from Todd Palin (and earlier endorsement from the Union Leader) may give him a cushion. But Huntsman and especially Santorum look stronger on the stump; of the three, Gingrich seems least likely to win the fight for third.
That, at least, is how it looks this morning. New Hampshire has surprised us before; we’ll see tonight if it does so again.
About the Author
John Tabin is a frequent contributor to The American Spectator online.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (26) | Leave a comment
More Articles by John Tabin
More Articles From A Further Perspective
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/01/10/whos-on-third
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
Current Issue
- The End of the Castros?
- The (Real) Great Divide
- Screwtape Talks Turkey
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
ADVERTISEMENT
Clint| 1.10.12 @ 6:31AM
Big Government Ricky Santorum's Record On Voting For Earmarks, Even The Bridge To Nowhere, His Support For The Lobbyist "K-Street Project" , His Tariff Votes, Medicare Prescription Drugs, No Child Left Behind,Etc. Is Gonna Sink Him With Tea Party Patriots.
Social Conservatives Won't Be Able To Carry Santorum ,The Big Government Statist.
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To The East Coast.
Jack in Wi.| 1.10.12 @ 7:20AM
If not for Huntsman, Ron Paul would win New Hampshire. Huntsman has always been a stalking horse for his fellow rich Mormon, Romney, to split the libertarian vote in New Hampshire. Santorum is just doing the same with the religious conservatve vote. They are both stalking horses for the elites.
Dai Alanye | 1.10.12 @ 9:45AM
Tweedledee and Tweedledum are at it again, rising early to disparage the opposition to their candidate Tweedledumber.
Mike Rogers | 1.10.12 @ 11:16AM
Still not married, boys?
If you actually look at behavior on the ground, it seems to me that Ron Paul is avoiding criticism of Mitt to help starve his own competition of votes. Conversely, Mitt avoids criticism of the good doctor, who is helping to split the conservative vote. If you look at the attack ads run by Mitt and Ron, it almost looks like coordination - who's on top this week? Let's get 'em!
The other non-aggression pact, if it is such, appears to be between Gingrich and Santorum - lack of criticism, occasional praise for the other's ideas... One wonders where that could lead.
PsychoDad| 1.10.12 @ 12:12PM
Paulifarians are more annoying than Jehovah's Witlesses.
hook| 1.10.12 @ 12:09PM
Santorum was from PA. which is an industrial and highly unionized and liberal state. What position would you expect him to take.?
VonMisesJr| 1.10.12 @ 8:19AM
Huntsman insulted middle America stating "Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents." I have been vacationing in the White Mountains for three decades, and the state has been overrun by MA liberals. And having visited more than half the states, there is nowhere like the Northeast, outside the Northeast except a few enclaves on the West Coast.
So if Huntsman is behind in SC, will he allege that they only pick cotton? Do Floridians only pick coconuts? How will he insult the Midwest and West? Do they only pick briars from their saddles?
Mr. Tabin should not fall for the "hurry up and pick from the establishment choices." After today, two small states out of fifty will have weighed in. Most of the country still needs to be heard, and dynamics change daily. Mitt hadn't stated before yesterday that "he likes firing people," and prior to that, Rick Perry was the favorite until he looked like a deer in the headlights in the debates.
But whoever becomes the conservative to challenge Mitt's lead, it will not be Huntsman.
Dai Alanye | 1.10.12 @ 9:48AM
Has anyone remarked upon the similarity in the presentations of Rachel Maddow and John Huntsman? Sneering snark is the technique of each. No wonder Huntsman's father refuses to finance his run.
VonMisesJr| 1.10.12 @ 10:35AM
I did not want to come out and say that he is almost as repulsive as our current Dear Leader, but he has the same visceral effect that makes me keep the changer close by when watching the business news. And I always make sure the TV is off when eating, just in case either Big Brother or other petulant and pampered elitest ruin my lunch.
Pete| 1.10.12 @ 1:27PM
How much does the Huntsman family benefit from the US China policy? I want to know.
VonMisesJr| 1.10.12 @ 4:04PM
Huntsman Corp is $11B in revenues per Yahoo.Finance. There Annual Report does not offer an easy breakdown online, but they are probably more concerned with future revenue growth.
Bob K.| 1.10.12 @ 10:58AM
His father probably is upset with him leaving the Appointment as Ambassador to China that he bought for him from the Obama Administration (similar to the huge endowment he laid on the Ivy League college, Penn, for accepting and graduating Jon from their hallowed Ivy Walls!)
The Huntsman corporation has big investments in the Chemical Industries of China and they had a big "in" there when Jon was Ambassador.
William Z| 1.10.12 @ 8:45AM
I would vote for Santorum because he respects the Constitution.
Vern Crisler| 1.10.12 @ 9:41AM
Again, why the continual hits on Newt from AmSpec? Is it personal?
Pete| 1.10.12 @ 1:27PM
They represent the GOP establishment, which hates Newt.
Naturalborn Texicanette| 1.10.12 @ 9:50AM
I am becoming very concerned that conservatives are so divided on their choice for a candidate to go against Obummer, that we will not come out with the ONE candidate who can BEAT Obummer...........
And the liberal mainstream media is behind all the backbiting and slurrs the candidates are throwing against each other. I wish the candidates would attack Obummer....NOT each other!!!!!!!!
Mike Rogers | 1.10.12 @ 11:19AM
Newt was in the forefront of attacking O'Bummer and the press, but his rivals didn't like that and went nasty on him. Now, apart from a couple of apparent peace pacts, such as the unlikely non-aggesssion between Paul and Romney, it does rather look like infighting :(
hook| 1.10.12 @ 2:40PM
amspec has always seemed to me to be pretty libertarian but NOT of the ron paul isolationist type.
maybe they have noticed newt is a jerk. he antagonized will and krauthammer too.
David| 1.10.12 @ 11:49AM
Clint and Jack in Wi, you really are morons(dictionary definition: "someone with the mental capability of a 12 year old).
hook| 1.10.12 @ 12:10PM
BINGO!!! But I vote for Jack in WI as winner
bill| 1.10.12 @ 11:52AM
NH Primary Results:
1st: Ron Paul
2nd: Mitt "RomneyCare" Romney
3rd: Newt Gingrich
4th: Rick Santorum
5th: Rick Perry
6th: Jon "ObamaDiog" Huntsman
PsychoDad| 1.10.12 @ 12:14PM
1- RON PAUL!
2- RON PAUL!
3-RON PAUL!
4- RON PAUL!
5-RON PAUL!
6-RON PAUL!
RON PAUL RON PAUL RON PAUL!
PsychoDad| 1.10.12 @ 12:16PM
Ron Paul - the Republican answer to Lyndon Larouche.
Jeremy Janson | 1.10.12 @ 2:10PM
I disagree that Gingrich is to the left of Huntsman. Gingrich is a very unusual man, and because he is so unusual he can get unusually effective results, just like he did with his balanced budget congress of '94. "Newt Skywalker" has at times been described as a conservative futurist, someone who believes in using the values of the past as a foundation for the results of tomorrow, and is also someone who can, at times, be altogether too academic. He is, as a result of this, one of the best American advancers of Nuclear Power, Space Travel and sensible economics, but also has a tendency to out of sheer insanity support things like RomneyCare. Still, I have an easier time forgiving an insane man who clearly does love his country then a perfectly sane, rational man who hates it, Romney.
This said, as much as I love Romney and disagree with many of the criticisms levelled at him, if he doesn't get back on that horse, I'm voting for Santorum, period.
bill| 1.10.12 @ 4:08PM
SC Primary Results:
1st : Rick Perry
2nd: Newt Gingrich
3rd: Ron Paul
4th: Santorum
5th: Romney
6th: Huntsman
It's a miracle!
POST American| 1.10.12 @ 9:50PM
--------------------BOTTOM LINE----------------------
RETRO-active IMPEACHMENT of our
past 4 CFR-Trilateral front op administrations.
INSTANT nullifcation of their rafts of
TREASONOUS stealth treaty-making
and 'understandings'.
Unflinching prosecution for the 4 decades
on, systematic, deliberate, broad daylight
sellout and transfer of the entire U.S. economy
to Globalist front RED China--at U.S, taxpayer
X-pence.
--------------------TIME TO MOVE---------------------
-------------------THIS IS TREASON-------------------