With the news that Greece has postponed its elections until
April, 2012 looks increasingly like the year in which the
legitimacy of the grand European project will be tested to
destruction. Predicting the future is a mug’s game, but I thought
it might be a fun little end-of-year project to put together some
not-entirely-serious suggestions for what might happen in Europe
over the next year.
January: General happiness
and optimism reign over the continent, with the Big Bazooka of the
new EU fiscal compact supposedly having solved all Europe’s
problems forever. EU officials organize a “Two Minute Hate”
directed at British Prime Minister David Cameron, to be introduced
in all EU schools just after morning assembly. Cameron tells the
British people he will remain firm and resolute. Five EU banks
collapse, but this is dismissed as a sign that the fiscal compact
is working. President Barack Obama urges the EU nations to work out
their differences and stick to the euro.
February: The EU parliament
votes that euroskeptic British members can only speak if they wear
a silly hat and begin their speech “I am a poor deluded fool and I
think…” Daniel Hannan, Nigel Farage and others proudly adopt the
silly hat as their symbol and begin every speech with a quote from
EU President van Rompuy. Ten more banks collapse. Portugal,
Ireland, and Spain are in imminent danger of turning into Greece.
This is dismissed as a sign that the fiscal compact is working.
President Barack Obama urges the EU nations to work out their
differences and stick to the euro.
March: The EU leaders
suddenly realize that their big bazooka was firing blanks. “We need
a Gross Panzerfaust!” declares Chancellor Merkel of Germany, making
this the title of a new draft EU Treaty. President Sarkozy is too
busy checking his latest poll figures on his blackberry to notice
and signs off on the plan without reading it. Faced with
exaggerated tut-tutting and snide comments in languages he doesn’t
understand, David Cameron decides that if Britain is to remain in
the EU he had better sign the treaty. On hearing the news, London
mayor Boris Johnson announces cryptically to the press, “Oh no,
that won’t do. That won’t do at all. No no no no no no…” and
wanders off. Cameron’s poll numbers plummet. President Barack Obama
urges the EU nations to work out their differences and stick to the
euro.
April: The technocratic
Greek government puts off elections until May. The EU approves
wholeheartedly. In France, the first ballot for the presidency
results in a run-off between socialist François Hollande and
neo-fascist Marine Le Pen. President Sarkozy’s desperate
last-minute campaign strategy of posing nude for Paris
Match with his wife Carla Bruni gains male votes but loses as
many female ones. In Britain, Parliament falls silent when Boris
Johnson wanders into the House of Commons in the middle of a floor
debate and sits on the Conservative front bench. No one has the
courage to ask him why he’s there. Two days later, David Cameron
announces that the Mayor of London is now a member of his cabinet.
President Barack Obama urges the EU nations to work out their
differences and stick to the euro.
May: The Greek government,
facing daily pro-democracy riots in the streets, puts off the
elections again, and invites the Turkish army in to maintain order
when the Greek armed forces refuse. The Greeks rise in revolt and
install a communist government which promptly begins expropriating
all private property in order to meet the pay and pensions of
rioting public servants. The EU says that communism is perfectly
compatible with its charter and Greece remains part of the euro. In
France, the French public gives a collective Gallic shrug of its
shoulders and elects Marine Le Pen its first female president,
rationalizing that it had tried male socialists before, but never a
female fascist. President Barack Obama congratulates the people of
France on voting for a woman, urges the EU nations to work out
their differences and stick to the euro.
June: The Greek army
intervenes to overthrow the Communist government, and installs a
government consisting of the few remaining free-market liberals in
the country. The EU declares this incompatible with membership and
expels Greece from the EU and the euro. Greece finally defaults,
reintroduces the drachma and becomes competitive again. Within a
few months, Greek living standards start to rise. President Barack
Obama condemns the Greek colonels, urges the EU nations to work out
their differences and stick to the euro.
July: The Gross Panzerfaust
Treaty is defeated in referenda in Ireland, France and Denmark.
German Chancellor Merkel refuses to accept the results and demands
the EU implement the treaty anyway. With a Czech referendum
imminent, she masses troops along the border. In the UK, illness
prevents David Cameron from answering Prime Minister’s Questions.
Boris Johnson casually wanders up to the dispatch box and starts
answering them in his stead, pushing Deputy Prime Minister Nick
Clegg to one side. He promises a British referendum on the Gross
Panzerfaust Treaty and also announces a new defense contract for a
New Spitfire. President Barack Obama urges the EU nations to work
out their differences and stick to the euro, before suddenly
realizing there’s an election on and his poll numbers are in the
commode.
August: The Italian
government announces that it will henceforth be a constitutional
monarchy and crowns Prime Minister Mario Monti king. Having
accidentally reintroduced separation of powers in an effort to
avoid the democracy problems of Greece, Italy suddenly finds itself
the best-run country in Europe. King Mario, now having to negotiate
with Parliament on tax levels and spending, introduces real fiscal
discipline and reduces public spending to 20 percent of GDP.
Supply-side reforms legitimize Italy’s black economy, turning Italy
into an economic powerhouse. King Mario tells his people that they
have, essentially, left the EU, so they might as well make it
official. President Barack Obama makes campaign stops in Paris,
Rome, Berlin, Amsterdam, Luxembourg, and Vaduz, urging the EU
nations to work out their differences and stick to the
euro.
September: French President
Marine Le Pen has by this time introduced her main economic
policies of protectionism, an end to immigration, nationalization
of the banks, and agricultural subsidies. She follows up by
reintroducing the franc, leaving the EU, and rebuilding the Maginot
line, this time including along the borders with Luxembourg and
Belgium. In Britain, the referendum to leave the EU passes with 75
percent in favor. Victorious “Out!” campaign leader Nigel Farage
manages a 100 percent popularity rating, but his UK Independence
Party is still without a seat in Parliament. Leader of the “It
Would Be Rather Nice to Stay In, Dontcha Know?” campaign, Deputy
Prime Minister Nick Clegg, fails to register any public approval at
all. He also notices that Boris Johnson has taken over his office
and is getting his Diary Secretary to schedule his engagements.
With President Obama campaigning in Hawaii, Illinois, and
Massachusetts, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urges the EU
nations to work out their differences and stick to the
euro.
October: Chancellor Merkel
flies to Moscow for a “secret” meeting with Vladimir Putin. Polish
foreign minister Radek Sikorski’s gulp can be heard in London. The
French economy collapses. French farmers block all ports, blaming
Britain. Britain starts getting all its agricultural imports from
New Zealand and other Commonwealth countries once more. British
food prices fall drastically. The Cameron/Johnson government enjoys
a substantial boost in the polls. Overnight, Portugal and Ireland
leave the euro and enter a currency union with the British pound,
while reintroducing their own currencies in free competition. With
Secretary of State Clinton helping the president campaign, Vice
President Biden urges the EU nations to work out their differences
and stick to the euro.
November: Spain, Finland,
Slovakia, Estonia, and the Netherlands leave the euro. As
Chancellor Merkel orders a national mobilization, she notes that
she always said this would happen if the euro collapsed, and blames
Britain. Austria and Luxembourg attempt to leave the euro, but find
they aren’t allowed, and that their currency all has the word
“Euro” crossed out and “Mark” written in with a sharpie. The
continent stops collapsing briefly so that everyone can see Ron
Paul win the 2012 U.S. Presidential race. There is a brief moment
of pan-European unity as everyone realizes they can now blame a
free-market American for their troubles instead. President Paul
says the EU got itself into this mess and can get itself
out.
December: Europe briefly
ceases to be a continent and becomes instead a giant game of Risk.
British Prime Minister David Cameron comes back from a party at BP
headquarters (theme — “Global warming — it’s our fault!”) to find
all his possessions on the street outside No. 10 Downing Street.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson flies to Washington to
congratulate President-elect Paul on his victory and join the North
Atlantic Free Trade Area. American troops in Germany point out that
they have better weapons than the rest of Europe combined and peace
breaks out all over Europe. European leaders, sans Johnson, meeting
in Brussels, decide that they should put aside their differences
and found something called the European Union…
