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At Large
Surprises Hiding in Plain Sight
International trouble spots in the coming election year.
There is no question that some things will happen in the forthcoming year that generally will surprise foreign policy and defense analysts. Of course most of these worthies will never admit they hadn’t had at least a brief thought about these contingencies. In reality many nascent situations already show their potential and should surprise no one.
Perhaps Iran is the most obvious venue for the unexpected to occur, even though any confirmation it has perfected a nuclear weapon would be anticlimactic. Ahmadinejad already has proven himself capable of surprising even his short list of friends. The real opportunity for the “I wasn’t ready for that one” award must arise from the ongoing covert operational environment that Iran’s internal politics presents. The gathering of information as well as covert action against computer networks that occurred in Iran in 2011 can be expected to continue and grow during 2012. The result could be Iranian counter-action in the form of a stepped-up cyber and sabotage campaign of their own against American installations in the Gulf, while at the same time signing a mutual non-aggression pact with Iraq. The threats to close the Straits of Hormuz will continue, but that surprises no one and the U.S. Navy already has its contingency plans.
North Korea always surprises observers because it maintains such an effectively closed society. Next year can be expected to be no different. In fact the biggest surprise would be to have no surprise at all. Interestingly there has been none of the usual quick analysis/propaganda coming out of Beijing that one would have expected in regard to the death of Kim Jong-il and the impact of the ascendancy of Kim Jong-un. The suspicion is that the Chinese believe the Obama administration wants a foreign policy victory so badly for this election year that it will be amenable to a deal with North Korea on terms it otherwise wouldn’t consider. In addition it is reasoned that Kim Jong-un and his regents recognize they need an early victory to solidify the power transition in Pyongyang. This combination of factors could produce a diplomatic breakthrough even though it would be at the expense of North Korean military cohesiveness on the General Staff level.
Pakistan provides a good chance for a surprise next year – though it seemingly does that every year. This South Asian nation has been in the midst of political turmoil ever since General Musharraf was booted out and Benazir Bhutto assassinated. Once again no strong civilian leader has emerged, so it would seem to be time for another coup. This time the army has a very good reason to take over once again. Pakistan’s economy cannot make ends meet without external aid. At the same time Pakistan’s internal civilian politics does not allow for the continued close relationship with the Americans that brings in the extra money. It’s a perfect setting for another military coup surprise. And who knows, it might just spur Washington to an even earlier departure from Afghanistan. At least that’s what some Pakistani generals might argue.
In the field of military coups, Egypt would have to be high on the list of possibilities. This would be one of those surprises that was definitely in the “I told you so” category. The unexpected aspect would be the strong Islamic alignment of the coup. Ever since the coup against the monarchy in 1952 the military has been the éminence grise of any secular government. The military was the instrument of the original revolution and the ultimate defender of Arab socialism under Gamal Abdel Nasser from 1956. The opening now exists for the army to split apart with allegiance to their faith overriding allegiance to non-religiously aligned military tradition. The creation of an “Islamic Army of the Republic of Egypt” partnered with a Moslem Brotherhood and Salafist-dominated parliament would create a new dynamic, not only in Egypt, but the Sunni Arab world in general.
If these “surprises” are not destabilizing enough for one to contemplate, it might be well to consider exactly how far the street reaction will go in Russia against Putin’s reelection as president. The nearly twenty percent (19.2%) of votes obtained by the Communist Party in the parliamentary election was the second largest single block after Putin’s own party, United Russia. The Communists may not be a major political factor at this time, but it is not something to disregard. Certainly Putin has to take the numbers into consideration in close votes in the Duma, but, more importantly, a rejuvenation of the Communist Party has the potential of stirring popular reaction. A repeat of Moscow’s police forces’ instinctive reaction to violently put down demonstrations could spread dangerously next year throughout Russia’s urban centers. That would be destabilizing within Russia and internationally.
There certainly are other areas of potential problems, but at least these few show what national security analysts have to consider. In a presidential election year, however, how much attention will the upper levels of the current administration in Washington pay to these potentials?
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
martin j smith| 12.30.11 @ 8:16AM
I would say that we have had an inept foreign policy since I have been alive and that goes back to Woodrow Wilson and maybe beyond that. After WWII the idea of winning a war seems to have been left out of our consideration.
PCC| 1.2.12 @ 12:16AM
You write surprisingly well for someone over the age of 90.
martin j smith| 12.30.11 @ 8:17AM
error-and goes even beyond that goes back to ...
KennesawJack| 12.30.11 @ 9:46AM
Another surprise may come in Turkey. If the government allows a move towards a less secular state the military will intervene.
ChiefC| 12.31.11 @ 12:58PM
Jack- Would tend to agree, but Erdogan has replaced many of the secular generals with Islamists.
Shamus| 12.30.11 @ 10:01AM
A society has trouble improving its prospects unless it has institutions that can support positive change. The lack of viable institutions presents a difficult challenge to places like North Korea or Egypt where the military predominates.
Indy| 12.30.11 @ 10:01AM
Watch China's economy, I've read the bubble is bursting over there, if they cannot sustain 8-9% growth, what happens to the global economy not to mention the unrest in China.
Did you exclude the EU debt crisis because it is not a surprise?
SpiralArchitect| 12.30.11 @ 4:54PM
China / India military conflict.
Kingofthenet| 12.31.11 @ 2:09PM
That would DEFINITELY be a WWIII situation half of the people in the world fighting would drag everyone else in.
Timothy L. Pennell| 12.30.11 @ 10:59AM
I don't see any surprises. No Jobs. More Unemployment. More Games being played by the Democrats. More Divisiveness from the White House. Riots in the Streets, and American Cities Ablaze, courtesy of The Great Divider, and his Union Army. "We need a Civilian Force, that is just as big, and just as Well Financed as the Military Forces.
SIEG HEIL!
I see a Flood of Companies joining Obama's Corporate Hiring Czar - Jeffery Immelt - in moving their Manufacturing, overseas. I see Assassination Attempts. I see Revolution.
I see the continuing Folly of the West's reliance on Cheap Chinese Goods, paying for the Chinese' continued Military Buildup. I see Russia, continuing to play Tough Guy. (When I look at Putin, I see Napoleon) They will continue to poke their finger in to our eye. Perhaps, if we tried RESETTING our Relationship? (Oops.) I see them, once again, hand in hand with everyone who seeks the ENSLAVEMENT of their people, and their Neighbor's people.
And, most importantly, I see Israel attacking Iran. If they feel they need Nukes? They'll use Nukes. If they use Nukes, what will Pakistan do? Will Israel feel the need to Nuke Pakistan, as well?
Either way, the flow of oil will STOP. Economies will STOP. Chaos will START. And, the Obama's will go on Vacation, until it's over.
Do I win?
RCV| 12.30.11 @ 11:30AM
No.
The apocalypse is always just around the corner for you, Tim.
The Big E| 12.30.11 @ 11:45AM
Here's one to think about - if the situation in Pakistan deteriorates to the point where it's government could fall into the hands of Islamic extremists, what would India do? If India decides it needs to take military action against Pakistan - and remember, both nations are members of the Nuke Club - what will the US do? Would we support Pakistan since they're allowing us to be our launching point into Afghanistan, or do we support the world's largest democracy?
Ron| 12.30.11 @ 12:30PM
Mr. Whitman,
Two latest developments: North Korea has dubbed Kim Jong-Un "Great Leader" and he has stated there will be no change in policy (imagine that.)
The second is that US State department is considering a release of a Taliban Commander from Gitmo in exchange for peace conference(s).
Clearly, NerObama just cannot seem to get a grasp of "enemies" or "dictators." Well, except that he seems to really admire dictators and Islamic terrorists.
Ron| 12.30.11 @ 12:30PM
Sorry...misspelled Wittman as "Whitman." my humble apologies...
cicero| 12.30.11 @ 2:26PM
All of the items mentioned as potential suprises should really come as no suprise at all. The countries dominated by Islam are all due for change. Historically, Muslim countries change violently. If they can get the West to affect the change, or finance it, so much the better. But change there will be. Best guess is that the change will not be in the direction of liberal, Jeffersonian democracy, or religious tolerance. When Pakistan broke from India in the late 40's, it was to provide a homeland for the Muslim population of India, so they would not have to dominated by the Hindu majority. 1.5 million people died in the transition. The West can ameliorate the effects of the violence by producing their own energy, thereby cutting off the funds for the upcoming fight. Don't look for that to happen, though. (U.S. just signed to sell Saudis brand new F15s. Good bet they will not be used as crop dusters.)
North Korea is hopeless. Working deals with them is like lending money to a drunk, so he can pay for his rehab. Leave them to China. For that matter, leave Pakistan to China, too. This will give the Chinese both the Uyghers and the Pakistanis on their southeast to deal with. That should keep them busy for a while.
Iran will solve itself. They will either start a fight with a neighbor, as a distraction for its own people, or its own people will overthrow the mullahs.Most likely, the military will be the instrument. If they make the mistake of starting the countdown to launch towards Isreal, Isreal will launch first. If might be the end of both. How sad.
Afghanistan will sink back into its past. That is where it is most comfortable. For some reason, the West keeps trying to rescue it. It is what it is because it likes it that way. There is a certain comfort to being illiterate, tribal, and male dominated. The women always know their place, and the men can play at war. Why would we want to spoil that. After all, what would there be left to fill the pages of National Geographic with?
DaveS| 12.30.11 @ 5:28PM
While we're speaking of surprises, here's an alternative ending to the 'captured' drone. The media have you believe that it was either an out-of-control drone or the Iranians were smart enough to find one and to hack the control system and land it on the Iranian side of the Afghan/Iran border. Out-of-control - and landing intact? Iranians hacking super-encrypted USAF hardware? Sure.
A much more plausible explanation is that it carefully and skillfully landed by an unquestionably loyal member of our own armed forces. Why? Same reason as the Wikileaks leaker - and perhaps with the same motivation and general circumstance. The protection afforded this situation squares with the DoD's and Obama's silences of late.
Tenn Slim| 12.31.11 @ 8:36AM
This position has some merit.
I would add that the process of manipulating drones is closely held, closley controlled. The Covert Action would have required a massive coordination effort. Not likely that an individual could have done this alone.
Semper FI
DaveS| 12.31.11 @ 2:32PM
It it went out of view or was unresponsive, wouldn't the operating crew just blow it up?
The whole episode is quietly dying and there seems to be no outrage. It's fishy all around.
POST American| 12.30.11 @ 10:20PM
----------------------FINAL WORD----------------------
---Speaking of 'hiding in plain sight'
as you sit there munching GMO sterilant,
organ failure, and cancer corn chips
-----How many CHEM-trails can you count
above you today?
---BEYOND HUAC ---BEYOND Nuremberg 2012!
Tenn Slim| 12.31.11 @ 8:33AM
Opine.
All points are worthy of close scrutiny.
I would add Israel. Any further denigration of Israel by the Obama Admin, will trigger the trigger of triggers. 2012 NOAA solar predictions, plus the Articles Points, plus the Israelies prediliction to unilateral actions will tip the stability balance. Expect the EU fiscal weights to add fuel to the fires of 2012.
Obama will vote Not Present in most actions.
Semper FI
ChiefC| 12.31.11 @ 1:00PM
Don't forget Mexico's slide toward being a completely failed state.
Intelligent Design| 1.1.12 @ 8:35AM
Obama and Biden are now trying to negotiate with the Taliban, al Qaeda's ally. They probably would have negotiated with Hitler too. After all, he was a National Socialist.
cavan| 1.2.12 @ 12:11PM
If Russia makes a surprise attack on Turkey's rear, will Greece help?
shermbodius rides again!| 1.2.12 @ 4:03PM
Great and thanks for the laugh.