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At Large
Reading the Persian Tea Leaves
What’s going on between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad?
It is always difficult to be an Iranian politician. One has to work so hard to make sure you are recognized as being against the right thing. Being properly negative — and that also means being against the correct issue at the correct time — requires considerable attention to the signs coming from the office of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is not always easy. The leader’s office is a form of combined national and international security staff. From this office reflects the consideration and movement of all key domestic and foreign policies. If you do not have access to this center, you are not “in the loop.”
The sacking of the British embassy is one of the more recent examples of touchy issues. Several hundred extremely mature “students” attacked the embassy and its guards. Reportedly the mob was organized by various hard-line politicians. It was a full day before it was clear in Tehran that this was an approved raid as far as the supreme leader was concerned.
In a surprising reversal of his previously moderate stance, Tehran’s mayor, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, rushed to condemn Britain and extol the “revolutionary” strength of the “students.” Joining him shortly afterward was the always politically alert speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, who made a point of explaining the action of Iranian “youth” as reflecting the view of all Iranians. This line had to have been transmitted through the supreme leader’s office that already supported the embassy attack as “the people’s reaction” to Britain’s hostile economic action (sanctions).
President Ahmadinejad used a reverse twist on the issue by attempting to cut the ground from under Larijani, a political competitor and possible presidential candidate in the 2013 elections. Having already knocked heads with the supreme leader over the issue of firing the intelligence minister, Ahmadinejad took a chance and went against the already established line by opposing the diplomatic sanctions already called for against Great Britain.
A more cynical interpretation of the Iranian president’s tactic would suggest he recognizes that Ayatollah Khamenei does not support him or his political future and in consequence Ahmadinejad decided to seek political support from the more moderate elements in Iranian politics. This tack is not as radical as it appears. Ahmdinejad always has sought the support of major political power centers before acting. His turning to those who represent a less pugnacious wing of Iran’s political life may be his only hope of continuing to remain a major figure. No matter the reasoning, Ahmadinejad’s actions point to divisions within the power players in Iran. For the moment, however, the supreme leader and the operative elements surrounding him have ultimate control of the key aspects of Iranian life.
From a practical point of view the internal security service of VEVAK, the al Quds force within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Council of Guardians are the operative instruments of Ayatollah Khamenei that hold the physical and ideological reins of power. They will remain the definitive factor for the near future, and it is the office of the supreme leader that maintains the coordination and balance among them.
If an individual or group seeks to wrest power from the existing structure militarily, judicially, or politically, they seemingly have an insurmountable obstacle to overcome. Even the appearance of defiance is quickly put down, although at the same time disagreement on the paths toward a policy is allowed. This provides the illusion of a form of democratic process. If a politician — as in this case Ahmadinejad — takes a line contrary to that which is generally approved but beforehand can point to a form of consent from one of the power centers, this politician has covered himself. It’s all quite logical and very Persian, but Ahmadinejad still has support from someone on the Council of Guardians.
The signs are clear that the office of the supreme leader — as well as Ayatollah Khamenei, himself — at this time does not support Ahmadinejad for a further major political role. Larijani will take maximum advantage of the current president’s period in the dog house to enhance his own chances for 2013. Further conflict with the United States and the European Union doesn’t seem to benefit or disadvantage either figure. The real question is whether Ayatollah Khamenei can remain as the supreme leader. That question remains in the hands of the religious hierarchy — not the electoral process.
At this time no Iranian politician speculates on the country’s future nuclear weapon. That major issue is considered the purview of only the top of the chain of command within the supreme leader’s office. Ahmadinejad has done his job of holding fast to the myth that Iranian nuclear development is solely for civilian power use. The truth is that no matter the eventual outcome of the current internal political maneuvering, the creation of an Iranian nuclear weapon is just a matter of time. This was a decision made decades ago.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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nathan| 12.23.11 @ 8:19AM
I'm sorry but for decades, literally decades we've been hearing about the "bomb". Netanyahu was crying wolf well over a decade ago and so far, with inspectors roaming all over the country and able to see mostly what is going on (inspectors who by the way have zero access to Israel) there is no bomb. His own intelligence agencies, civilian and military, have advised him that military action is not justified at this time even though he, like the neocons here is straining at the bit to attack a country that no one, repeat no one can remember attacking another country directly in the last hundred years.
Think about this for a moment. Iran has been invaded twice in the last century, once by the Russians right after the war, once by Iraq with our aid and support. Despite Saddam's use of WMD's against them, they did not use WMD's in response. Furthermore we carried out an unprovoked act of war against THEM in 1953 when Eisenhower greenlighted the coup against the Mossedegh government, a government that had not attacked us in any manner, that had not threatened us in any way and installed a kleptomaniac human rights violating "shah" using street thugs to do it, and help keep him in power for decades. Again, that action was totally unprovoked because the noble British was upset about the price of oil. That's real nice of them.
The Iranians who disliked the taliban as much as we did and nearly went to war with them when three of their diplomats were murdered in Kandahar helped us in the early stages of the Afghan war. (You all do know that don't you?) Instead of reaching out to them and seeing how we could build on that, the dreadfully incompetent stupid . . . it's hard to come up with words to describe the Bush/Cheney people really threw the Iranians under the bus with one of the worse speeches in history, the "axis of evil" speech.
The point here is, look at the history here and first identify the good guys/bad guys. Are they ones who sit there and largely mind their own business and get invaded or are they ones who overthrow governments without just cause?
We don't know enough here, the inspectors' report did not in fact support any bomb building exercise on the part of Iran (go back and read it folks) to risk an economic armageddon. A stock market maybe at 4,000, unemployment at maybe 30 percent, mass unrest. Because if the Iranians are attacked and close the straits and attack oil facilities in the middle east, oil could easily go to 600 dollars a barrel.
All of you "bomb bomb Iran" folks consider that carefully.
Nick| 12.23.11 @ 11:11AM
Nathan,
You're no conservative.
I've asked you a couple of times if you have any other credentials, other than supporting Senator Goldwater and subscribing to National Review? Apparently, you ceased being a conservative between then and now.
Mossadegh was a commie stooge, who nationalized British oil fields, suspended elections, stole land from family tribal lands, and seized power, like Hitler did, with emergency powers.
We had every right to do everything that we could do to accelerate his removal. What was the act of war you claim we committed, commie sympathizer?
I'll bet that Mr. Goldwater had no problem with helping to depose Mossadegh and putting the Shah back in power.
Boar Hunter| 12.23.11 @ 2:17PM
Nick, Unfortunately I read Nathan's post.
Nathan is another willfully ignorant liberal hack. Since he is unable to change anyones mind by dazzling them with his brilliance he tries to baffle them with cow excrement.
These people are sad and angry and should be left alone. Like homosexuals, these Libs are so emotionally invested in their beliefs they are incapable of tolerating decent or entertaining any true discussion of their views on merit.
Did you happen to note the hyperactive pitch of his narrative? Note his cult like reliance on liberal "buzz words." Nathan is so indoctrinated in the liberal cause he couldn't resist using the word neocon. Of course no diatribe about America's greed for oil would be complete without a reference to the now famous (no matter how many times it has been debunked), Bush-Cheney lies. And don't forget, to this anti-American, seditionist, America is the "bad guy."
Nick| 12.24.11 @ 12:30PM
Boar Hunter,
Agreed. Yes, I have noticed that Nathan likes to use the language and the arguments of the left. Odd, for conservative, I think.
He is either a bleeding heart liberal, or, a paleo-con Bircher.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Occam's Tool| 12.25.11 @ 2:50PM
The International Atomic Energy Commision now holds that Iran is building toward a bomb. Wake up.
Occam's Tool| 12.25.11 @ 2:51PM
The above does NOT apply to the fabulous Mr. Hunter and Nick, who continue to always kick ass. Merry Christmas guys.
Nick| 12.26.11 @ 2:37PM
Thanks, Occam.
Hope you are enjoying the Festival of Lights.
May you and your family have a very happy and prosperous new year, and enjoy the rest of 5772!
G-d Bless!
Occam's Tool| 12.27.11 @ 6:20PM
Nick, Mr. Hunter:
the following story is from the fabulous Debbie Schlussel website, where Clint dares not to post:
"This is a great story. (Thanks to all the readers who sent it.)
A robber comes into a gold-buying business in Hendersonville, NC with a gun. And the person he’s trying to rob, Derek Mothershead, beats him senseless, holds him down, and then makes him clean up his blood when he awakes from his stupor. Oh, and by the way, the robber is 25-year-old Mostafa Kamel Hendi. I wish I could post the video, but the TV station doesn’t have a “share” feature and I’m unable to upload the video myself, so you have to go watch it there, but it’s DEFINITELY worth it. They, sadly, don’t answer the questions I had, including:
Foiled Robber Mostafa Kamel Hendi
* What is Hendi’s immigration status?
* From what country did he arrive?
You get the gist. Oh, and do we really have to play, “Guess the Religion,” here? Regardless, we know from which region of the world and which kinds of values he emanates. More:
A clerk at a business in Western North Carolina punched a would-be robber and knocked him out cold just minutes after the man barged in with a gun and demanded money.
It happened about 15 minutes before closing time Friday night at We Buy Gold store in Hendersonville.
“When he came through the door he told me had a gun and he even flashed it,” said Derek Mothershead. “I stood up and threw my hands up and said, ‘Take the money.’”
Mothershead said the man came behind the counter with a bag.
“I got the money and he had the bag out and instead of putting it in the bag I stuck it out and said, ‘Just take it.’ So, when he reached out, I took a step in, I cocked back and preloaded and I hit him hard,” Mothershead told News 4′s Mike McCormick.
The punch knocked out the would-be thief. Mothershead was able to grab the man’s weapon and realized it was a pellet gun.
“When I pulled it out of his waistband I started laughing,” said Mothershead. “I said, ‘Man, you came in here with a fake gun?’”
Mothershead said he dragged the man over to a desk and held him down with one hand and called 911 with the other.
The man, later identified as Mostafa Hendi, eventually regained consciousness.
“He kind of begged me, begged me to let him go,” Mothershead said. “I said, ‘You came in and tried to rob us. You’re going to jail.’”
While they waited for police and paramedics, Mothershead gave the man a roll of power towels, sprayed the floor with cleaner and told him to clean up his own blood.
Now THAT’s how you deal with these people. Again, though, what is Hendi’s immigration status and where did he come from? I’ll bet the answers are interesting. If he’s not from here, let’s see if Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actually takes custody of this crook or does nothing.
Don’t hold your breath. This is Obama’s ICE."
Now, the application of this approach to Iran's leaders, and the delightful outcome that we would get if we applied it, should be obvious.
Kick their heads in using maximum force with minimal concern for civilian casualtuies, like we did Hamburg, Tokyo, and Hiroshima. WWII was the last war we openly won, and the last time we played for keeps.
Nick| 12.27.11 @ 7:32PM
Occam's Tool,
I saw that clip on the news. It was great!
You are correct. This formula works at the personal, local, state, and national level.
I'm not the greatest fan of Teddy Roosevelt, but I agree wholeheartedly with his maxim: "Speak softly, and carry a big stick."
Take care, my friend.
emilio lizardo, PhD| 12.23.11 @ 1:39PM
sure andthe ubiquitous chanting of "death to Israel, death to America" is just the guys blowing off steam and the Farsi equivalent of yelling Yee-Haw or the like..Appeasement and denial has a sorry history, and you, sir, are an apologist channeling Neville Chamberlain.
Boar Hunter| 12.23.11 @ 2:27PM
Please, for the love of God quit using statement like, "We don't know enough here." "We" includes me and you sir are simply an idiot with whom I have no interest in being grouped with. You are just another anti-American tool who aligns himself with other useful communist idiots. You have no ability to reason and are incapable of independent thought or ideas. Please quit bothering people with your moronic anti-American hate.
Alan Brooks| 12.25.11 @ 2:42AM
Demonising Islam wont sell as much as before.
Quartermaster| 12.25.11 @ 8:43PM
We didn't gave aid to Saddam until well after he invaded. Then it was mostly satellite photography.
John786| 12.23.11 @ 9:40AM
This time next year Iranians will have the bomb.
And next year
This time next year Iranians will have the bomb.
And the next ..........next year
This time next year Iranians will have the bomb.
And next year.........etc etc
I'm getting bored with this Propaganda.
Boar Hunter| 12.23.11 @ 12:35PM
I can't wait till they get it. Maybe you'll get excited then?
Whose fault will it be when they use it? Theirs? or people like you with their heads in the sand? I have been around a little while and I for one do not recall this "their gonna get the bomb, year after year characterization.
People (including Iran) have been saying for a few years now that Iran is working toward acquiring the bomb. Is it possible in your mind that a nuclear armed Iran that promotes terrorism might just be a small problem?
More likely your in the Ron Paul cult and believe if we just leave them alone everything will be just dandy.
John786| 12.23.11 @ 4:12PM
http://www.spectator.co.uk/ale.....dawn.thtml
Clint| 12.24.11 @ 2:52AM
Learn Some History, Sport.
A Short Video Primer.
http://digitaljournal.com/article/316304
cicero| 12.23.11 @ 12:42PM
Current Iranian history begins with 1979, and the return of the mullahs to power. It makes no sense to try to go back beyond that to analyse the current regime. They are not smoked about the cruseads, or the fall of Constantinople. They are relying on the coming of the 12th Imam.
To use logic and historical factoids to analyze religious fanatacism doesn't work. The only think that will stave off the coming war is time, and a change in regime. If the mullahs can be held back for sufficient periods of time, regime change may bring in a ruling class less bent on destruction.
These guys are not sitting around merely thinking up ways to preserve their religious way of life. They are causing trouble in Lebenan, Iraq, Syria, and anywhere they can.
Clint| 12.24.11 @ 2:47AM
Warning !
Israel Firsters Do Not, I Repeat Do Not Watch This Short Video.
http://digitaljournal.com/article/316304
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Occam's Tool| 12.25.11 @ 2:52PM
Anything you want to show me, Clint, is about as useful and as smelly as your well extended asshole.
Quartermaster| 12.25.11 @ 8:45PM
Alas, that's your own next to your nose. Deal with the issues or be known as a faux-conservative.
Occam's Tool| 12.27.11 @ 6:22PM
What issue, QM? Another video about, as Clint points out, "Sandmonkeys?" I've been a Conservative since you were in diapers, boy.
Zahirul | 12.24.11 @ 8:35AM
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winston | 12.24.11 @ 2:44PM
The US should have helped overthrow the regime in 2009-2010 when it was possible.
Quartermaster| 12.25.11 @ 8:46PM
Alas, the boys in office have the vision of 16 year olds.