Kim Jong-il is dead, but little is likely to change in the
so-called Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. There will be an
intense struggle for power, but the North Korean people will
continue to suffer.
Last week American and DPRK officials met in Beijing to
discuss the possible resumption of U.S. food aid. Pyongyang has
been banging its tin cup as the North’s population faces hunger and
malnutrition.
One newspaper headline read “U.S., N.Korea Discuss Food
Shortage.” Another paper ran a story titled “Private Groups Ask
U.S. Food Aid for N. Koreans.” A magazine story reported “Time Runs
Out for Pyongyang to Avert Massive Famine.”
Actually, these three articles were published in 1997. In
the ensuing 14 years the North has continued as communism’s latest
self-inflicted catastrophe.
Pyongyang’s collectivist, state-run economy is a wreck. At
the same time, Kim Jong-il pursued a “military first” policy,
developing nuclear weapons, producing missiles, and maintaining a
large conventional military. Along the way his government
repeatedly threatened the Republic of Korea with death and
destruction — even sinking a South Korean naval vessel and
bombarding a South Korean island last year.
Pervasive hardship and suffering has had no impact on
North Korean policy. The regime survives on handouts from
China.
Now, again, the DPRK’s population faces hunger. Earlier
this year Pyongyang had its 40 foreign embassies ask host
governments, including in poor developing states, for
help.
But the North has other options. North Korea’s new rulers
could open up the economy, as even Beijing long has urged. The
Republic of Korea has the world’s 13th-largest economy. It
succeeded by relaxing state controls, encouraging entrepreneurship,
and trading globally. Even more modest reforms would enable North
Korea to feed itself.
However, Kim undoubtedly feared that relaxing his economic
grip would cost him political control. He relaxed state
restrictions only at the margins, such as allowing private flea
markets.
Pyongyang also could reduce the extraordinarily high share
of resources going to the military — perhaps a third or even more
of GDP. Redeploying a significant amount of money and effort even
in such an inefficient system could prevent the North Korean people
from starving. But the military is an important tool of social
control. It also has become the most important political foundation
of the regime. Finally, only the DPRK’s destructive military
capabilities — conventional and nascent nuclear — cause other
nations to pay attention to the North.
Thus, the “Dear Leader” consciously wrecked the economy
and squandered his people’s resources on the military. Next year
could be worse, as Kim’s death makes it even more likely that North
Korea will implement plans to present itself as “a powerful and
prosperous country” to celebrate the 100th anniversary of “Great
Leader” Kim Il-sung’s birth and the enthronement of Kim Jong-il’s
successor. The result almost certainly will be the prodigious waste
of scarce resources on showy public displays.
So it comes as no surprise to find that much of the North
Korean population apparently is hungry. Outside aid agencies warn
that the country is short hundreds of thousands of tons of grain.
Arif Husain of the World Food Program said, “The situation is
precarious.”
Nevertheless, the United Nations reports an increased
harvest and the North doesn’t appear to face mass starvation and
death, as during the late 1990s, when at least a half million, and
perhaps many more, North Koreans died. Indeed, some observers are
skeptical of Pyongyang’s claims even now: South Korea’s unification
minister, Yu-Woo-ik, declared that the situation was “not seriously
urgent.” However, hardship and malnutrition appear to be
real.
Thus, aid groups such as the World Food Program are
attempting to round up food donations. In support of their efforts,
Morton Abramowitz of the Century Foundation decried the Obama
administration’s refusal “to provide help.” He dismissed
administration concern over the potential for diversion and
misappropriation with the observation that “huge amounts of
American aid go to an Afghan government permeated by graft and
corruption.”
Of course, Washington has reason to worry. Warned the
Congressional Research Service earlier this year: “Pyongyang has
resisted reforms that would allow the equitable distribution of
food and help pay for food imports. Additionally, the North Korean
government restricts the ability of donors to operate in the
country. Multiple sources have asserted that some of the food
assistance going to North Korea is routinely diverted for resale in
private markets or other uses.”
In fact, the administration ended food aid two years ago
because the Kim government interfered with outside monitoring. And
abuses elsewhere, such as Afghanistan, which in part reflect the
ongoing war, should make Washington more, not less, careful in the
future.
Nevertheless, Abramowitz is right to believe that politics
likely is influencing the administration’s decision — as it
should. Tragic as is the plight of the North Korean people, it is a
political crisis. The Kim regime consciously disabled the economy
and wasted much of the government’s resources. By seeking aid
abroad while preaching “juche,” or self-reliance, at home,
Pyongyang is asking other nations, including some routinely
targeted as enemies, to deliver it from its self-created
difficulties.
Moreover, the DPRK sees assistance from other governments
as political acts. Were the North Korean problem merely an
abundance of well-intentioned bunglers, the West could provide
assistance with less concern. However, Pyongyang’s policies are
conscious and calculated, and always were intended to benefit the
Kim dynasty.
Thus, official food aid would indemnify Pyongyang for its
disastrous economic and military policies. Assistance also would
help keep the Kim family in power, to the deadly detriment of the
North Korean people. Moreover, subsidizing a regime that constantly
threatens its neighbors effectively subsidizes the threats, and the
means to carry them out. High level North Korea defector Kim
Duk-hong told the Wall Street Journal that food assistance
“is the same as providing funding for North Korea’s nuclear
program.”
Aid would relieve what little pressure the regime faces.
For instance, there has been some evidence that rations have been
reduced for North Korea’s military and the privileged residents of
Pyongyang. Feeding more people today may strengthen the yoke of
oppression tomorrow.
American food aid also would relieve the burden on China
to support its client state. The Kim regime survives largely
because Beijing provides substantial energy and food assistance.
For its own reasons, the People’s Republic of China has refused to
place meaningful pressure on Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear
program — in contrast to getting the North to attend talks on
abandoning its nuclear program.
Since the PRC is committed to the survival of a communist
North Korea, let China feed the North’s population. Chinese policy
has helped make a starving yet nuclear-armed DPRK a reality. The
problem should be placed in Beijing’s lap.
Of course, humanitarianism still understandably appeals,
so the U.S. should not block private aid agencies which want to
work in the North. Their work, at least, avoids placing an official
imprimatur on Pyongyang’s decisions. The greatest human needs might
be met while limiting the DPRK’s political advantage. But
Washington needs to avoid doing harm while trying to
help.
