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At Large
The Land of Bad Options
No aid for North Korea so long as it threatens the South. And that’s just for starters.
Kim Jong-il is dead, but little is likely to change in the so-called Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. There will be an intense struggle for power, but the North Korean people will continue to suffer.
Last week American and DPRK officials met in Beijing to discuss the possible resumption of U.S. food aid. Pyongyang has been banging its tin cup as the North’s population faces hunger and malnutrition.
One newspaper headline read “U.S., N.Korea Discuss Food Shortage.” Another paper ran a story titled “Private Groups Ask U.S. Food Aid for N. Koreans.” A magazine story reported “Time Runs Out for Pyongyang to Avert Massive Famine.”
Actually, these three articles were published in 1997. In the ensuing 14 years the North has continued as communism’s latest self-inflicted catastrophe.
Pyongyang’s collectivist, state-run economy is a wreck. At the same time, Kim Jong-il pursued a “military first” policy, developing nuclear weapons, producing missiles, and maintaining a large conventional military. Along the way his government repeatedly threatened the Republic of Korea with death and destruction — even sinking a South Korean naval vessel and bombarding a South Korean island last year.
Pervasive hardship and suffering has had no impact on North Korean policy. The regime survives on handouts from China.
Now, again, the DPRK’s population faces hunger. Earlier this year Pyongyang had its 40 foreign embassies ask host governments, including in poor developing states, for help.
But the North has other options. North Korea’s new rulers could open up the economy, as even Beijing long has urged. The Republic of Korea has the world’s 13th-largest economy. It succeeded by relaxing state controls, encouraging entrepreneurship, and trading globally. Even more modest reforms would enable North Korea to feed itself.
However, Kim undoubtedly feared that relaxing his economic grip would cost him political control. He relaxed state restrictions only at the margins, such as allowing private flea markets.
Pyongyang also could reduce the extraordinarily high share of resources going to the military — perhaps a third or even more of GDP. Redeploying a significant amount of money and effort even in such an inefficient system could prevent the North Korean people from starving. But the military is an important tool of social control. It also has become the most important political foundation of the regime. Finally, only the DPRK’s destructive military capabilities — conventional and nascent nuclear — cause other nations to pay attention to the North.
Thus, the “Dear Leader” consciously wrecked the economy and squandered his people’s resources on the military. Next year could be worse, as Kim’s death makes it even more likely that North Korea will implement plans to present itself as “a powerful and prosperous country” to celebrate the 100th anniversary of “Great Leader” Kim Il-sung’s birth and the enthronement of Kim Jong-il’s successor. The result almost certainly will be the prodigious waste of scarce resources on showy public displays.
So it comes as no surprise to find that much of the North Korean population apparently is hungry. Outside aid agencies warn that the country is short hundreds of thousands of tons of grain. Arif Husain of the World Food Program said, “The situation is precarious.”
Nevertheless, the United Nations reports an increased harvest and the North doesn’t appear to face mass starvation and death, as during the late 1990s, when at least a half million, and perhaps many more, North Koreans died. Indeed, some observers are skeptical of Pyongyang’s claims even now: South Korea’s unification minister, Yu-Woo-ik, declared that the situation was “not seriously urgent.” However, hardship and malnutrition appear to be real.
Thus, aid groups such as the World Food Program are attempting to round up food donations. In support of their efforts, Morton Abramowitz of the Century Foundation decried the Obama administration’s refusal “to provide help.” He dismissed administration concern over the potential for diversion and misappropriation with the observation that “huge amounts of American aid go to an Afghan government permeated by graft and corruption.”
Of course, Washington has reason to worry. Warned the Congressional Research Service earlier this year: “Pyongyang has resisted reforms that would allow the equitable distribution of food and help pay for food imports. Additionally, the North Korean government restricts the ability of donors to operate in the country. Multiple sources have asserted that some of the food assistance going to North Korea is routinely diverted for resale in private markets or other uses.”
About the Author
Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is the author and editor of several books, including The Politics of Plunder: Misgovernment in Washington (Transaction).
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c. j. acworth| 12.21.11 @ 6:59AM
In the last three paragraphs Mr. Bandow gives the conclusion that I reluctantly came to a while ago. The thought of many thousands starving is a heartbreak, but we cannot allow ourselves to be held hostage by our own compassion. Let the Chinese feed the NORKs, the last thing they want to see is a popular revolt and the ensuing instbility. From what I read, the Chicoms are experincing enough of that themselves. How much of that food aid goes onto plates in NK military barraks, I wonder?
Jim| 12.21.11 @ 8:16AM
My heart aches for the children. Adults could rise up in mass and fight and no doubt die for change. They have elected not to. If the food can not get to those for who it is intended then I say no food. Sorry kids.
WRTolkas| 12.21.11 @ 9:12AM
I have been fortunate to have spent time in South Korea and have made lasting friendships with many South Koreans. I asked about the situation in the North and the famine. This is how the famine was explained to me: there is a Korean word that I have forgotten; but this word means total self sufficiency for a person, society, and a nation. This is what the North is following - self sufficiency. And if a few million citizens die off then it is for the greater good of the nation. That is how the situation in the North was explained to me.
Merry Christmas to all American Spectator readers and writers.
Teaghan| 12.21.11 @ 12:39PM
Hmmm, has an obaman ring to it. For the greater good. Grandma will just have to get the pain pill instead.
Minuteman78| 12.21.11 @ 9:30AM
This is where Truman royally screwed up. We could have nuked Pyongyang to the ground in the first months of the Korean war, brought these clowns to their knees just like we did with Japan, then installed a Democracy. I hate like hell to say it but Obama's missing a golden opportunity. Assassinate Kim-whatever the 3rd and take all the tropps now out of Iraq and wipe the place out. But I think Obama actually likes tyrants that torture and starve their own people. He sure acts like one.
Dmac| 12.21.11 @ 10:05AM
I have a completely different take on it. Now that junior is in power invite him to the United States. Let him bring along a general or two. Let him know we are here to be his friend if he so desires, but explain to him it will come at a cost. He must open up his country. Assist and allow his citizens to produce and sell goods and star down the road to total unification with south Korea within 10 years. Only a fool would want to be our enemy once they see all that we have in food production and military might.
If he turns down the offer let him and his Chinese keepers know that the next time his military fires on South Korea there will be total war on the north.
MachiasPrivateer| 12.21.11 @ 10:24AM
Right now, before Christmas, is the time to offer food, fuel and Chrismas tree seedlings to re-forest a barren landscape in the spirit of Christmas. Offer the new rulers a massive carrot to turn away from the old ways and try a new path. No one wants the people, particularly the children, of North Korea to starve or freeze, so why be stinting at the most charitable time of year? Lead by example, not from behind!!!
Did you know that the elders of the ruling Kim family, before their affair with Communism, used to be Presbyterians? Help North Korea celebrate Christmas in 2011!
Al Adab| 12.21.11 @ 10:33AM
The North Korean situation is one we could have faced in 1994. Instead we followed a policy of engagement, read appeasement, by which we provided N K with reactors on their promise of good behavior. Now that we see how that turned out, we might consider a different approach.
CrackerHound| 12.21.11 @ 10:56AM
This is the situation in a nutshell. If aid is not given, millions starve to death. If aid is given, the NK army and elites are fed and their military strength advances unfettered, and slightly less numbers of people starve. Either way the children of N. Korea live on the edge of starvation and this is by design. Their starvation is a political strategy.
As usual in today's world...the difficult (and correct) choices are not made. The diffcult choice in this instance would be to shut off all aid to NK and fortify South Korea and Japan with defensive/offensive military capabilities until such a time as the North collapses or China steps up. Why should the global community allow a weak and brutal nation to kill their own and hold the entire region hostage? The answer is as always, we want to kick the can down the road and avoid facing down existential threats in favor of avoiding the unpleasantness (or political expediency) of correcting a serious problem.
Common sense is not so common anymore. One day very soon, all of this is going to come to head...the approaching economic armageddon, unchecked military threats and geopolitical dysfunction and on and on...will create a situation that will make The Book of Revelations seem like a walk in the park. Everyone of us can see it coming and identify what needs to be done, yet we continue to sleepwalk. Maybe it's for the best and call me a pessimist or doomsayer, but I believe it may be too late anyways. Perhaps our governments have already realised that it is the case which would explain the inaction.
Bob Grant| 12.21.11 @ 9:49PM
So now's not a good time to ask for your opinion on the Grammy nominations?
Kingofthenet| 12.21.11 @ 11:49AM
So you "Bad Boy', You Try and Kill Me? You Fail! HaHa...Hans Blix
Dave Williams| 12.21.11 @ 1:06PM
Those poor people....
....their only purpose seems to be to demonstrate the inevitable result of collectivism. Are we too far down that road to heed their unfortunate example?
cicero| 12.21.11 @ 1:39PM
Everyone seems to assune that the South Koreans are not capable of defending themselves. That is not true. The South is more than a match for the North. The Chinese will not interrvene in any war started by the North. This is not 1950, when the North invaded the South at the behest of the Chinese.
Historically, the Chinese have always wanted to conquer Korea, because of the wealth of the people and land. Currently, I don't see the Chinese wanting North Korea for any reason other than a buffer between it and western style capitalism.
The best thing we can do is to do nothing, and stay out of the way. Without outside aide, and soon, the North Korean regime will collapse. What replaces it remains to be seen, but it can't be any worse for its people. It is just not our fight.
World War II is long over, and the Cold War is done. The time for the United States to defend the world on its own dime are gone. If anyone wants our military aide to keep them safe, they will have to pay full price for it. Otherwise, let them train and supply their troops. Our standing as the defenders of the world has bankrupted us, and allowed allowed those we have defended for free to posture against us, and erect societies built on socialist dreams that have ruined the very fabrics of thier cultures.
CrackerHound| 12.21.11 @ 2:00PM
Yes Cicero...The south can defend themselves as you state....but does the north believe that? If NK believes they can succesfully invade the south or punish them than they will attempt it. Which is the whole reason the US is in South Korea.
Also if North Korea goes after the south, it would pretty much decimate that country unless joint forces are present to nuetalize the north before that horrible scenario happens. With US, South Korean and possibly Canadian and British forces attacking the north, it would be over fairly quick.
Al Adab| 12.21.11 @ 2:20PM
Cicero, Cracker:
Does not the N K posession of the nuke change the algebra?
CrackerHound| 12.21.11 @ 2:25PM
No because I believe their "nuke program" amounts to nothing really. It's a dud.
Secondly, a nuke program in the hands of the current regime is way more dangerous than confronting a country like NK with a nuke program however primitive it may be.
Notice I said confronting and not attacking. My opinion is that we should not let fear dictate how we deal with NK.
c. j. acworth| 12.21.11 @ 2:32PM
The NORKs are the clients of the Chicoms. I seriously doubt they would approve an invasion of the South. Anybody know offhand how much business the Chicoms do with the South? I bet it's plenty.
CrackerHound| 12.21.11 @ 2:49PM
Yes, China does a lot of business with South Korea. China is a huge client of every nation. They are on the level of the US in that aspect.
CJ:"I seriously doubt they would approve an invasion of the South."
I agree. I also don't think China would sit by as western forces attack the north even as retaliation for NK aggression. A war on that peninsula would undoubtably involve Chinese fighting to repel any attackers in NK just as it did in the 1950's.
Al Adab| 12.21.11 @ 2:43PM
It's not a nuke program, they have several usable weapons. Any one of which could make a hash of Inchon. The South is not in a position to respond and clearly we would not.
Wayne| 12.21.11 @ 2:03PM
North Korea is us with 4 more years of Obama.
CrackerHound| 12.21.11 @ 2:20PM
Wayne...we won't get that far in four years...but soon enough.
See my post above @10:56am. I agree with you in the long run. The monetary collapse and world wars/riots will probably put all of us (most of the world) in the same boat. When the US collapses then it gets really bad globally.
I've been told by family and friends that I am fear mongering. I think they actually believe that something like this can never happen here. That is a big mistake on their part. It HAS happened before and it will again. It's almost like standing outside of a house and seeing smoke coming out of a window and saying "that house is on fire or will be very shortly". It really is that obvious at this point.
Niniane| 12.21.11 @ 5:14PM
As soon as Kim Jong-il died, the NKs closed the border between themselves and China, the border crossings which brought in supplies. Perhaps to remain closed until the new year, starvation will be more prominent.
But what I noticed in all the videos of people crying with no tears, none of them look starved but I suppose if you are a good party member, you get all the goodies.
shipley130| 12.21.11 @ 5:28PM
With every food shipment, we are actually supporting the North Korean government. They don't tell the North Koreans that the food is from the USA, now do they. Of course, assuming that non government people actually get the food.
shipley130| 12.21.11 @ 5:50PM
The communists have had a long trend of people starving. North Korea is what happens when communists control the narrative. Are you listening, dear American parents?
Dipesto| 12.21.11 @ 6:49PM
KJil did do one thing praiseworthy for NK. According to Robert Pelton in one of his Dangerous Places books some Western useful idiot praised the Dear One for abolishing Flunkyism in NK.
Mike D.| 12.21.11 @ 9:31PM
And Jimmy Carter sent his condolences to Kim Jong Un. I never underestimated Jimmy's ability to kiss the @ss of any Anti-American murderous dictator. Jimmy, histories human roll of toilet paper.
Occam's Tool| 12.22.11 @ 3:42AM
Carter=Paul=Obama on foreign policy. All appeasers/grovellers/losers.
POST American| 12.21.11 @ 9:46PM
"One day, one day soon, we're going to
REALIZE Korea, and not the long gone
and done World Wars, was --the---pivotal
conflict of the 20th century -viz a viz the
21st."
The Globalist created Korea situtation,
like the Globalist installed, set up, empowered
RED China situation ----WAS our well-planned
downfall.
Had American forces been allowed to finish
the job in 1952, a FREE Korea would certainly
be there today.
RED China, even under the auspices of the
OSS installed MAO, would NOT have stood
the test ot time. The 'social engineering'
(ie MASS 'peacetime' exterminations)
would have been all but impossible to pull
off ----as in the also 'sealed-off' Soviet Union.
The Globalist cartel's hellbound kharma
around little Korea and thrice devastated
China is truly beyond calculation.
Even the calculating powers of the actuarial psychopaths.
But, have no fear --we'll be picking up the tab
anyway.
----------------HUAC/ Nuremberg 2012---------------
Bob Grant| 12.21.11 @ 10:29PM
I'm posting this because I'm sick and tired of reading the comments late at night and seeing time-and-time again seeing POST American getting the last word.
.....Done!
Nam Doc| 12.22.11 @ 9:16PM
If the NORKs attack the south, we should flatten them at once. And China too if they interfere. They understand only violence. You can't be polite to them with any success. Flatten then like Hiroshima. They'll get the idea.