So many other issues deserve to be written about, but the
Republican presidential battle, like heroin for a junkie, compels
the attention of political animals everywhere. Herewith, then, the
column of a political junkie, trying hard for objective analysis
while perhaps succumbing, as is all too human, to the unknowing
substitution of wish fulfillment for analytical wisdom.
On the side of analytical ability, there is a strong
record
to which to point. Be that as it may, when the analysis does track
one’s personal preferences, as the following one (more or less)
does, a bit of a caveat emptor warning is
appropriate.
Okay, enough with the disclaimers. Here’s the prediction,
seemingly wild but actually serious: When the dust settles (and
when the clichés run out), the final two Republican contenders with
a chance for the nomination will be Mitt Romney and… not Newt
Gingrich, but either Rick Santorum or an as-yet-undeclared
Candidate X named Jindal or Ryan or, Lord forbid, Jeb “it’s my
birthright” Bush.
First, why not Gingrich? Because he’s already dropping
fast in Iowa and dropping fast in hypothetical match-ups against
Obama, and Republican voters are desperate for a candidate who can
evict today’s Oval Office Occupier. Before much longer, too many
people will have realized that Gingrich is, in style,
discipline, and ethics, the Bill Clinton of the Right, without the
rape but with only half the charm and twice the abrasiveness.
He exhibits the extreme egomania of a new Napoleon — and, for that
matter, looks as if he has
eaten too many Napoleon puff pastries to have the stamina for
the marathon that is the modern presidential campaign.
Okay, then why not a resurgence by Rick Perry, who by most
accounts is a good man? Because, while fall debates rarely are
strongly decisive in presidential campaigns, Republican voters
certainly don’t want to risk having an awful debate performance
cause the loss of a close election. Because Perry bombed or
underwhelmed in five consecutive debates, Republican voters just
won’t be able to bring themselves to trust that he’ll be a winning
standard-bearer. (Hence National Review’s dismissal of
Perry in the course of their “Not Gingrich”
editorial on Wednesday.) A candidate who bombed upon entry even
with the advantages of $17 million is not somebody in whom the
primary electorate will have sufficient confidence.
Michele Bachmann has much to recommend her as an admirable
figure, but the impression is indelible that she is still too green
for the White House. Ron Paul will do well in Iowa, but his “blame
America for 9/11” shtick will never fly long enough to make him a
serious contender. And Jon Huntsman is annoyingly supercilious and
unctuous and has far too weirdly gone out of his way to insult too
many sub-groups of conservatives.
All of which leaves, among those currently in the race,
only
Rick Santorum. Now, clearly, Santorum has yet to “project” the
charismatic image of a potential winner, and has yet to overcome
the stigma of his large loss in his 2006 Senate re-election
campaign. On the other hand, he is the only candidate in the whole
race who has yet to make a serious gaffe. He is the only candidate
other than Gingrich whose every debate performance has been at
least solid and substantive. He is the only candidate without any
major downside for large numbers of conservatives. He is the only
candidate who, if he rises, won’t be subject to surprises that make
him collapse like a soufflé upon further inspection. He has, bar
none, the strongest grassroots organization in Iowa, along with
surprisingly decent bones on which to put real campaign flesh in
New Hampshire and especially South Carolina if he does catch some
fire in Iowa. He has worked harder, almost certainly, than any of
the other candidates (although Bachmann’s campaign work ethic might
be equally as strong). He clearly has established more personal
connections in Iowa than any of the others, testing whether
old-fashioned, one-by-one voter contacts can still pay dividends in
the modern political world.
Aside from Gingrich, Santorum has the longest record of
actual achievement within government. His legislative record is
remarkably substantive, and his rise to the third-ranking position
in the Senate GOP hierarchy completely belies the
establishment-media portrayal of him as a right-wing gadfly. His
foreign/defense-policy knowledge is deeper than anybody’s but
Huntsman’s, and his foreign/defense-policy views are far more
acceptable to a wide range of conservatives than are Huntsman’s.
His biggest
economic proposal may not have the most obvious sex appeal, but
it would be the strongest and — a key consideration — the most
politically achievable job producer of any of them.
Finally, Santorum has a history (in four elections out of
five) of peaking at exactly the right time and defying the
political odds. If candidate quality, like cream, eventually rises
to the stop and remains there, Santorum is the only conservative
candidate who has real, potential staying power atop the field. He
is an extremely able retail politician, one who should never be
underestimated.
THAT SAID, serious talk among serious people continues to
involve the possibility of drafting a new entrant into the race.
The nomination calendar this year makes this more doable than
in any year since 1976. Paul Ryan has twice ruled it out, but he
clearly is annoyed by Gingrich and might be motivated to enter if
Gingrich seems a serious threat to win. Bobby Jindal has endorsed
Perry, but if Perry gave up he is in perfect position to pick up
the conservative banner. Reaganite leaders have raved over his book
Leadership and Crisis, which easily could serve as a
blueprint, or even campaign platform, for a national conservative
resurgence. Finally, somebody is making
robo-calls in New Hampshire that suggest a Jeb Bush candidacy,
but smart people should recognize that 2012 is far too soon for
voters to want to return to the Bush leagues. (Indeed, the very
threat of an entrance by Bush may catalyze key players to hustle
into drafting Ryan or Jindal, in order to fill what amounts to the
only remaining spot in the field before Bush can consider
it.)
What seems clear, though, is that Romney has a floor of
about 20 percent of the Republican electorate, below which he will
not fall, which makes him a shoo-in to be one of the final two
contenders. Equally as clear, enough Republican voters yearn so
strongly for a serious, conservative alternative to Romney that
there will emerge a non-Romney candidate from the right
who actually has staying power. For all the reasons above, that
alternative will not remain Gingrich, and it won’t be Bachmann or
Perry either. Santorum’s chance is at hand, as is the chance for
the most successful presidential draft movement (for Ryan or
Jindal) in American history.
