A New Turkey-Qatar bloc is in the works in the
wake of the tumoil in Syria, Libya, and other Islamist hot
spots.
Despite threats from Iran to withdraw financial aid and
training for militants, Hamas has nowreportedly orderedthe majority of its staff
in Damascus to evacuate the organization's headquarters by next
week, aiming to leave behind only a "nominal presence" in Syria,
which has hosted Hamas since the group was expelled from Jordan in
the late 1990s. This latest move from Hamas comes amid a gradual
divestment of Syrian assets over the past few months.
More importantly, Hamas has undertaken the decision to
evacuate Syria under pressure from Turkey and Qatar, both of which
are leading support for the Syrian National Council (SNC) that is
currently dominated by Sunni Islamists. Meanwhile, Turkey is
helping to smuggle arms to the Free Syrian Army, whereas Qatar was
the first nation in the Gulf area to close its embassy in Damascus
back in July, and is likewise reportedly supplying weapons to
Syrian rebels.
Although Saudi Arabia and other Arab League members
(except Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon) have joined in the condemnation
of Assad's conduct and Syria's membership in the Arab League has
accordingly been suspended, Qatar's stance stands out amongst Arab
states as far more proactive and much more along the lines of
present Turkish policy towards Syria.
Of course, Qatar has further been influential in drawing
Arab public attention to Assad's crackdown on protesters in Syria
via al-Jazeera broadcasts, with well-known Islamist cleric Yusuf
al-Qaradawi, who has his own show on the channel,calling on
Assadto step down because he was supposedly being
"held prisoner by his entourage and the [Alawite] sect."
We find a similar active approach on the part of Turkey
and Qatar regarding Libya, albeit differing to a certain degree.
The two countries backed the anti-Gaddafi forces during the civil
war. Turkey played an important part in enforcing an arms embargo
on ports controlled by the Gaddafi forces, as well as in
implementing the no-fly zone.
While Qatar similarly participated in enforcing the no-fly
zone, the Gulf state also sent troops as military advisors for
rebel forces, and frequently held meetings with officials from the
National Transitional Council (NTC). Again, there is a contrast
with the more reserved approach of Saudi Arabia and most other Arab
League states, although it should be pointed out that the United
Arab Emirates deployed a dozen aircraft to assist in the NATO-led
mission against Gaddafi's regime.
In the aftermath of the overthrow of Gaddafi, Turkey and
Qatar have also attempted to increase their influence in Libya, but
Turkey's methods have been more subtle and welcomed. Qatar has been
circumventing the NTC to provide support for Islamist militias that
are operating independently of the NTC's control. Hence, the NTC
has rebuked Qatar for excessive interference in internal affairs on
more than one occasion.
On the other hand, Turkey has sought to gain a foothold in
Libya by cultivating cultural and educational ties for the moment.
Thus, Turkey has offered torenovate and restore a prominent Ottoman-era
mosquein Libya. The interim Libyan government is
also seeking Turkish help to train schoolteachers and
rewrite school textbooksto portray Ottoman
Islamic rule over the area in a positive light. Accordingly, the
Minister of Education Suleiman Sahili declared in a recent
interview, "We want to see Turkey on our soil once
more."
Incidentally, Today's Zaman (the English-language
Turkish daily),which noted Turkey's initiative to renovate and
restore an Ottoman-era mosque in Libya, also reported on a request
from Gaza to the Turkish government for assistance in
reconstructing several mosques. That Qatar and Turkey share
sympathy for Hamas is undeniable. The joint pressure on Hamas to
evacuate Syria has already been noted.
Going further back, the Turkish Prime Minister
Erdoganhas defended Hamasfrom charges of being a
terrorist organization, and is allegedly planning toprovide $300 millionfor the group, while
Qatar attempted to
hold a summit in Dohain the immediate aftermath
of Operation Cast Lead in support of Hamas.
Furthermore, al-Jazeera tried to undermine the Palestinian
Authority (PA) and bolster Hamas by releasing the "Palestine
Papers," which, on a side note, exposed the inconsistency of the
PA's public and private stances regarding negotiations with
Israel.
The Palestine Papers showed that in private PA officials
appeared to be willing to discuss compromises on matters like the
"right of return," but when this detail was made public, the PA
angrily denied that such discussions had taken place. The affair
thus illustrated how the PA is still failing to make an active
effort to cultivate an attitude of reconciliation among the
Palestinian population at large by means of media and
education.
In any case, the emerging picture appears to be one of a
new Sunni bloc led by Qatar and Turkey, currently including Hamas
as a member. It is evident that this bloc is in opposition to the
Iranian-led "resistance" axis that includes Syria and Hezbollah.
More of a gray area is how this bloc will relate to Saudi Arabia,
which has since Gaddafi's fall followed a "hands-off" policy
towards Libya and is, as we have seen, more reserved in its
approach towards Syria.
On three counts, the interests of this bloc and those of
Saudi Arabia have overlapped. First, there is the common opposition
to Iran. Second, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have deployed troops in
Bahrain to suppress predominantly Shi'a protests against the Sunni
minority regime, while Turkey (like al-Jazeera's Arabic channel)
has more or less kept a diplomatic silence on the issue. Third, in
eastern Saudi Arabia, where security forces have cracked down on
Shi'a protests, Turkey and Qatar have refrained from condemnation,
and al-Jazeera's coverage is clearly biased against the
demonstrations. In both cases, the protests have been portrayed as
Iranian plots to stir up trouble.
Thus, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and this
Turkey-Qatar bloc could be described as ambivalent at
present.
Observers would therefore do well to watch closely the
evolving situation in Egypt. With Islamists on the rise in that
country, it is possible that new tensions will emerge between Saudi
Arabia and the Turkey-Qatar bloc, especially since the former has
for a long time supported the status-quo of military rule that
existed under Hosni Mubarak, who maintained very close ties with
the Saudis, while Qatar and Turkey might throw their weight behind
a dismantling of military rule and a transition to a government
potentially dominated by Islamists.
About the Author
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University, and an adjunct fellow at the Middle East Forum. His website ishttp://www.aymennjawad.org.
A famous phrase from somebody that perfectly describes the new
Ottomans, "We're back."
Intelligent Design| 12.9.11 @ 8:58AM
This is all very complicated. Perhaps the clearest message is a
reminder that Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims are locked in a
continuing, centuries old battle, each determined to kill the other
along with any Infidels.
It also reminds me of the absurdity and futility of our "nation
building" exercises in both Iraq and Afghanistan. We should get out
of those countries and stay out of the other Islamic cesspools such
as Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, etc. Let the various
Muslim factions fight and kill each other.
Without having troops on the ground, wasting thousands of our
soldiers lives and hundreds of billions of dollars, we can still
focus on the main threat by bombing Iran's nuclear sites, and
giving more military assistance to Israel.
John786| 12.9.11 @ 9:13AM
Sunni - Shia dynamic is greatley exaggerated. Syria is ruled not
by a sect but a ruthless family whose days are numbered. The
qatar-turkey axis is to be welcomed. One can not tell the future
but it looks bright for the people of the ME. Of course the
future for racists, ethnic cleansing states is no longer
assured. And ditto other occupying powers in ME. Things are a
changing..........
RCV| 12.9.11 @ 12:56PM
To the extent the future looks brighter for the ME, it is only
because the Turkey-Qatar axis consists of more pragmatic and
modernist policy makers who aren't of the "let's drive Israel into
the sea" chorus that Iran, Syria and the other Shia apocolyptics
belong to. Turkey and Qatar can live in peace with a Jewish Israel.
Iran and Assad's Syria and Hezbollah and Hamas can't.
Bob K.| 12.11.11 @ 11:23AM
It is now becoming disingenuous to discuss the Syria question
without mentioning the role Russia will play in it. Other political
observers writing for major Eastern publications do.
Russia has a Naval Base in Tartus, in Western Syria, near where
the Alawite sect, to which the Assad family belongs, is centered,
and they intend to have a say in any matters concerning Syria. They
also have veto power in the United Nations should they choose to
use it in the matter of sanctions and China likely will go along
with Russia there. Even now an Russian Aircraft Carrier is steaming
to Tartus from Vladivostok as are other ships from it's Black Sea
fleet.
This Qatar-Turkey "Axis" is a red herring. The House of Saud is
financing this sunni/shi-ite quarrel as it always has and it will
continue to do so in the future because the only weapon it has to
insure it's own survival is it's money.
MachiasPrivateer| 12.9.11 @ 9:33AM
The #1 priority of the US of A is to undermine the mullahs of
Iran and their clients Assad & Hezbollah. They receive backing
from Putin, so tomorrow's protests in the streets of Moscow will
alarm the whole bunch!!
Hamas and the Islamists in Egypt and Libya can wait.
JimH| 12.9.11 @ 10:27AM
Its’ not just Sunni – Shia. Its’ Arab – Turk – Persian and any
number of other combinations. If we pulled out of the area it is
likely that the various parties would resume their centuries old
hobby of slitting each other’s throats and not pay us a whole lot
of attention other than when trying to get visas to come here.
Attila The Hun| 12.11.11 @ 11:53AM
Jim, you missed the Kurds. The largest stateless ethnic group
who are hated by everyone in the region. Watch out for what will
happen after U.S pulls out of Iraq. 2012 will be very interesting
year
William L. Gensert| 12.9.11 @ 1:42PM
This is all part of the bigger Shiite, Sunni war that will go
hot very soon. Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia all understand that
Iran is the greatest danger to their collective, continued
existence, at least as independent regimes with the ability to
choose their allies. With Turkey, this is easiest to see, with
their recent walk-back, in the form of their support for the
opposition in Syria, of their initial enthusiasm for Iran's recent
aggressiveness at establishing regional hegemony. Look for all
three to support Israeli military action against the Iranian
nuclear weapons program, if not publicly, clandestinely. I believe
this is already happening.
cicero| 12.9.11 @ 4:05PM
Very few Islamic regimes have, historically, died in bed.
Violent overthrow, assasination, expulsion has been the norm. The
same is happening now. The West has been hopefully calling the
latest upheaval the "Arab Spring", as if this is some sort of new
beginning. It is only a replay of the last round of regime
changes.
If the West is to stay out of the ME, and its problems, it also has
to resolve to not sell or give the rulers modern weapons. They
cannot develope anything on their own, but can buy sophisticated
weaponry with which to kill one another, and anyone else they feel
compelled to destroy. If relegatedd to camels and swords, their
damage is sel-limiting.
Of course, that take wisdom and sanity on the part of the West.
Good luck.
Michael Tomlinson| 12.9.11 @ 8:34AM
The gift of Barack Obama to imperialistic Islam.
Melvin| 12.9.11 @ 8:44AM
A famous phrase from somebody that perfectly describes the new Ottomans, "We're back."
Intelligent Design| 12.9.11 @ 8:58AM
This is all very complicated. Perhaps the clearest message is a reminder that Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims are locked in a continuing, centuries old battle, each determined to kill the other along with any Infidels.
It also reminds me of the absurdity and futility of our "nation building" exercises in both Iraq and Afghanistan. We should get out of those countries and stay out of the other Islamic cesspools such as Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, etc. Let the various Muslim factions fight and kill each other.
Without having troops on the ground, wasting thousands of our soldiers lives and hundreds of billions of dollars, we can still focus on the main threat by bombing Iran's nuclear sites, and giving more military assistance to Israel.
John786| 12.9.11 @ 9:13AM
Sunni - Shia dynamic is greatley exaggerated. Syria is ruled not by a sect but a ruthless family whose days are numbered. The qatar-turkey axis is to be welcomed. One can not tell the future but it looks bright for the people of the ME. Of course the future for racists, ethnic cleansing states is no longer assured. And ditto other occupying powers in ME. Things are a changing..........
RCV| 12.9.11 @ 12:56PM
To the extent the future looks brighter for the ME, it is only because the Turkey-Qatar axis consists of more pragmatic and modernist policy makers who aren't of the "let's drive Israel into the sea" chorus that Iran, Syria and the other Shia apocolyptics belong to. Turkey and Qatar can live in peace with a Jewish Israel. Iran and Assad's Syria and Hezbollah and Hamas can't.
Bob K.| 12.11.11 @ 11:23AM
It is now becoming disingenuous to discuss the Syria question without mentioning the role Russia will play in it. Other political observers writing for major Eastern publications do.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ML02Ak01.html
Russia has a Naval Base in Tartus, in Western Syria, near where the Alawite sect, to which the Assad family belongs, is centered, and they intend to have a say in any matters concerning Syria. They also have veto power in the United Nations should they choose to use it in the matter of sanctions and China likely will go along with Russia there. Even now an Russian Aircraft Carrier is steaming to Tartus from Vladivostok as are other ships from it's Black Sea fleet.
This Qatar-Turkey "Axis" is a red herring. The House of Saud is financing this sunni/shi-ite quarrel as it always has and it will continue to do so in the future because the only weapon it has to insure it's own survival is it's money.
MachiasPrivateer| 12.9.11 @ 9:33AM
The #1 priority of the US of A is to undermine the mullahs of Iran and their clients Assad & Hezbollah. They receive backing from Putin, so tomorrow's protests in the streets of Moscow will alarm the whole bunch!!
Hamas and the Islamists in Egypt and Libya can wait.
JimH| 12.9.11 @ 10:27AM
Its’ not just Sunni – Shia. Its’ Arab – Turk – Persian and any number of other combinations. If we pulled out of the area it is likely that the various parties would resume their centuries old hobby of slitting each other’s throats and not pay us a whole lot of attention other than when trying to get visas to come here.
Attila The Hun| 12.11.11 @ 11:53AM
Jim, you missed the Kurds. The largest stateless ethnic group who are hated by everyone in the region. Watch out for what will happen after U.S pulls out of Iraq. 2012 will be very interesting year
William L. Gensert| 12.9.11 @ 1:42PM
This is all part of the bigger Shiite, Sunni war that will go hot very soon. Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia all understand that Iran is the greatest danger to their collective, continued existence, at least as independent regimes with the ability to choose their allies. With Turkey, this is easiest to see, with their recent walk-back, in the form of their support for the opposition in Syria, of their initial enthusiasm for Iran's recent aggressiveness at establishing regional hegemony. Look for all three to support Israeli military action against the Iranian nuclear weapons program, if not publicly, clandestinely. I believe this is already happening.
cicero| 12.9.11 @ 4:05PM
Very few Islamic regimes have, historically, died in bed. Violent overthrow, assasination, expulsion has been the norm. The same is happening now. The West has been hopefully calling the latest upheaval the "Arab Spring", as if this is some sort of new beginning. It is only a replay of the last round of regime changes.
If the West is to stay out of the ME, and its problems, it also has to resolve to not sell or give the rulers modern weapons. They cannot develope anything on their own, but can buy sophisticated weaponry with which to kill one another, and anyone else they feel compelled to destroy. If relegatedd to camels and swords, their damage is sel-limiting.
Of course, that take wisdom and sanity on the part of the West. Good luck.