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A Further Perspective

Sunni Realignments

A New Turkey-Qatar bloc is in the works in the wake of the tumoil in Syria, Libya, and other Islamist hot spots.

Despite threats from Iran to withdraw financial aid and training for militants, Hamas has now reportedly ordered the majority of its staff in Damascus to evacuate the organization's headquarters by next week, aiming to leave behind only a "nominal presence" in Syria, which has hosted Hamas since the group was expelled from Jordan in the late 1990s. This latest move from Hamas comes amid a gradual divestment of Syrian assets over the past few months.

More importantly, Hamas has undertaken the decision to evacuate Syria under pressure from Turkey and Qatar, both of which are leading support for the Syrian National Council (SNC) that is currently dominated by Sunni Islamists. Meanwhile, Turkey is helping to smuggle arms to the Free Syrian Army, whereas Qatar was the first nation in the Gulf area to close its embassy in Damascus back in July, and is likewise reportedly supplying weapons to Syrian rebels.

Although Saudi Arabia and other Arab League members (except Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon) have joined in the condemnation of Assad's conduct and Syria's membership in the Arab League has accordingly been suspended, Qatar's stance stands out amongst Arab states as far more proactive and much more along the lines of present Turkish policy towards Syria.

Of course, Qatar has further been influential in drawing Arab public attention to Assad's crackdown on protesters in Syria via al-Jazeera broadcasts, with well-known Islamist cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who has his own show on the channel, calling on Assad to step down because he was supposedly being "held prisoner by his entourage and the [Alawite] sect."

We find a similar active approach on the part of Turkey and Qatar regarding Libya, albeit differing to a certain degree. The two countries backed the anti-Gaddafi forces during the civil war. Turkey played an important part in enforcing an arms embargo on ports controlled by the Gaddafi forces, as well as in implementing the no-fly zone.

While Qatar similarly participated in enforcing the no-fly zone, the Gulf state also sent troops as military advisors for rebel forces, and frequently held meetings with officials from the National Transitional Council (NTC). Again, there is a contrast with the more reserved approach of Saudi Arabia and most other Arab League states, although it should be pointed out that the United Arab Emirates deployed a dozen aircraft to assist in the NATO-led mission against Gaddafi's regime.

In the aftermath of the overthrow of Gaddafi, Turkey and Qatar have also attempted to increase their influence in Libya, but Turkey's methods have been more subtle and welcomed. Qatar has been circumventing the NTC to provide support for Islamist militias that are operating independently of the NTC's control. Hence, the NTC has rebuked Qatar for excessive interference in internal affairs on more than one occasion.

On the other hand, Turkey has sought to gain a foothold in Libya by cultivating cultural and educational ties for the moment. Thus, Turkey has offered to renovate and restore a prominent Ottoman-era mosque in Libya. The interim Libyan government is also seeking Turkish help to train schoolteachers and rewrite school textbooks to portray Ottoman Islamic rule over the area in a positive light. Accordingly, the Minister of Education Suleiman Sahili declared in a recent interview, "We want to see Turkey on our soil once more."

Incidentally, Today's Zaman (the English-language Turkish daily),which noted Turkey's initiative to renovate and restore an Ottoman-era mosque in Libya, also reported on a request from Gaza to the Turkish government for assistance in reconstructing several mosques. That Qatar and Turkey share sympathy for Hamas is undeniable. The joint pressure on Hamas to evacuate Syria has already been noted.

Going further back, the Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has defended Hamas from charges of being a terrorist organization, and is allegedly planning to provide $300 million for the group, while Qatar attempted to hold a summit in Doha in the immediate aftermath of Operation Cast Lead in support of Hamas.

Furthermore, al-Jazeera tried to undermine the Palestinian Authority (PA) and bolster Hamas by releasing the "Palestine Papers," which, on a side note, exposed the inconsistency of the PA's public and private stances regarding negotiations with Israel.

The Palestine Papers showed that in private PA officials appeared to be willing to discuss compromises on matters like the "right of return," but when this detail was made public, the PA angrily denied that such discussions had taken place. The affair thus illustrated how the PA is still failing to make an active effort to cultivate an attitude of reconciliation among the Palestinian population at large by means of media and education.

In any case, the emerging picture appears to be one of a new Sunni bloc led by Qatar and Turkey, currently including Hamas as a member. It is evident that this bloc is in opposition to the Iranian-led "resistance" axis that includes Syria and Hezbollah. More of a gray area is how this bloc will relate to Saudi Arabia, which has since Gaddafi's fall followed a "hands-off" policy towards Libya and is, as we have seen, more reserved in its approach towards Syria.

On three counts, the interests of this bloc and those of Saudi Arabia have overlapped. First, there is the common opposition to Iran. Second, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have deployed troops in Bahrain to suppress predominantly Shi'a protests against the Sunni minority regime, while Turkey (like al-Jazeera's Arabic channel) has more or less kept a diplomatic silence on the issue. Third, in eastern Saudi Arabia, where security forces have cracked down on Shi'a protests, Turkey and Qatar have refrained from condemnation, and al-Jazeera's coverage is clearly biased against the demonstrations. In both cases, the protests have been portrayed as Iranian plots to stir up trouble.

Thus, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and this Turkey-Qatar bloc could be described as ambivalent at present.

Observers would therefore do well to watch closely the evolving situation in Egypt. With Islamists on the rise in that country, it is possible that new tensions will emerge between Saudi Arabia and the Turkey-Qatar bloc, especially since the former has for a long time supported the status-quo of military rule that existed under Hosni Mubarak, who maintained very close ties with the Saudis, while Qatar and Turkey might throw their weight behind a dismantling of military rule and a transition to a government potentially dominated by Islamists.

About the Author

Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University, and an adjunct fellow at the Middle East Forum. His website is http://www.aymennjawad.org. 

Letter to the Editor View all comments (11) | Leave a comment

Michael Tomlinson| 12.9.11 @ 8:34AM

The gift of Barack Obama to imperialistic Islam.

Melvin| 12.9.11 @ 8:44AM

A famous phrase from somebody that perfectly describes the new Ottomans, "We're back."

Intelligent Design| 12.9.11 @ 8:58AM

This is all very complicated. Perhaps the clearest message is a reminder that Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims are locked in a continuing, centuries old battle, each determined to kill the other along with any Infidels.

It also reminds me of the absurdity and futility of our "nation building" exercises in both Iraq and Afghanistan. We should get out of those countries and stay out of the other Islamic cesspools such as Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, etc. Let the various Muslim factions fight and kill each other.

Without having troops on the ground, wasting thousands of our soldiers lives and hundreds of billions of dollars, we can still focus on the main threat by bombing Iran's nuclear sites, and giving more military assistance to Israel.

John786| 12.9.11 @ 9:13AM

Sunni - Shia dynamic is greatley exaggerated. Syria is ruled not by a sect but a ruthless family whose days are numbered. The qatar-turkey axis is to be welcomed. One can not tell the future but it looks bright for the people of the ME. Of course the  future for racists, ethnic cleansing states is no longer assured. And ditto other occupying powers in ME. Things are a changing..........

RCV| 12.9.11 @ 12:56PM

To the extent the future looks brighter for the ME, it is only because the Turkey-Qatar axis consists of more pragmatic and modernist policy makers who aren't of the "let's drive Israel into the sea" chorus that Iran, Syria and the other Shia apocolyptics belong to. Turkey and Qatar can live in peace with a Jewish Israel. Iran and Assad's Syria and Hezbollah and Hamas can't.

Bob K.| 12.11.11 @ 11:23AM

It is now becoming disingenuous to discuss the Syria question without mentioning the role Russia will play in it. Other political observers writing for major Eastern publications do.

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ML02Ak01.html

Russia has a Naval Base in Tartus, in Western Syria, near where the Alawite sect, to which the Assad family belongs, is centered, and they intend to have a say in any matters concerning Syria. They also have veto power in the United Nations should they choose to use it in the matter of sanctions and China likely will go along with Russia there. Even now an Russian Aircraft Carrier is steaming to Tartus from Vladivostok as are other ships from it's Black Sea fleet.

This Qatar-Turkey "Axis" is a red herring. The House of Saud is financing this sunni/shi-ite quarrel as it always has and it will continue to do so in the future because the only weapon it has to insure it's own survival is it's money.

MachiasPrivateer| 12.9.11 @ 9:33AM

The #1 priority of the US of A is to undermine the mullahs of Iran and their clients Assad & Hezbollah. They receive backing from Putin, so tomorrow's protests in the streets of Moscow will alarm the whole bunch!!

Hamas and the Islamists in Egypt and Libya can wait.

JimH| 12.9.11 @ 10:27AM

Its’ not just Sunni – Shia. Its’ Arab – Turk – Persian and any number of other combinations. If we pulled out of the area it is likely that the various parties would resume their centuries old hobby of slitting each other’s throats and not pay us a whole lot of attention other than when trying to get visas to come here.

Attila The Hun| 12.11.11 @ 11:53AM

Jim, you missed the Kurds. The largest stateless ethnic group who are hated by everyone in the region. Watch out for what will happen after U.S pulls out of Iraq. 2012 will be very interesting year

William L. Gensert| 12.9.11 @ 1:42PM

This is all part of the bigger Shiite, Sunni war that will go hot very soon. Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia all understand that Iran is the greatest danger to their collective, continued existence, at least as independent regimes with the ability to choose their allies. With Turkey, this is easiest to see, with their recent walk-back, in the form of their support for the opposition in Syria, of their initial enthusiasm for Iran's recent aggressiveness at establishing regional hegemony. Look for all three to support Israeli military action against the Iranian nuclear weapons program, if not publicly, clandestinely. I believe this is already happening.

cicero| 12.9.11 @ 4:05PM

Very few Islamic regimes have, historically, died in bed. Violent overthrow, assasination, expulsion has been the norm. The same is happening now. The West has been hopefully calling the latest upheaval the "Arab Spring", as if this is some sort of new beginning. It is only a replay of the last round of regime changes.
If the West is to stay out of the ME, and its problems, it also has to resolve to not sell or give the rulers modern weapons. They cannot develope anything on their own, but can buy sophisticated weaponry with which to kill one another, and anyone else they feel compelled to destroy. If relegatedd to camels and swords, their damage is sel-limiting.
Of course, that take wisdom and sanity on the part of the West. Good luck.

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