Wednesday
Wow. A lot has happened since we
last spoke, dear diary.
I have been on the road. Last week I was in Boston speaking to
some really smart people, and then to New Orleans to speak to J. W.
Roth and Dave Lavigne’s group, and to have a fantastic meal at Mr.
B’s. Now, I have been to New Orleans many a time. I have been to
many cities. I have stayed at many hotels. But the rooms my wife
and I got for this trip to New Orleans at the Ritz Carlton were off
the charts. They had the most amazing antiques and antique art I
have ever seen anywhere in my life. It was like staying in a super
high end antique store. (Frankly, I like the Phoenician better
because the rooms are so big and bright, but the furnishings at the
hotel in N.O.La. were breathtaking.)
However, I do not feel well. Somewhere, I picked up a cold or
flu and I really feel pretty tired. Going out to Bourbon Street and
getting mobbed by fans was not a good health move either.
So, now I am back from my trip, in my office in Beverly Hills,
and I definitely do not feel well. My brain is sort of racing right
now, though. (As I write this, the phone is ringing. I won’t answer
it because this is the witching hour at which the various arms of
the GOP call me to ask for money and I have already given enough.
They are real pests.)
I was just lying in bed thinking about the year 2005, when I
bought the home I love so very much at Morningside C.C. in Rancho
Mirage. Times were great then. Money was pouring in. Mortgages were
easy to get. I used to just call my woman at B of A, tell her the
price of the home, tell her when I wanted to close, and bang, it
was done.
Now, that seems like ancient history. Now, although my life is
still pleasant, the days of easy money are over. I can recall
asking my brilliant and wonderful late father-in-law, war hero
extraordinaire, what life was like in the Great Depression. He said
something like, “It was all right except that there was no
money.”
That’s sort of what it’s like now in the world of housing
credit, only worse.
Yes, Americans can still get credit for cars and trucks and
refrigerators, and those businesses are doing well. But just try to
get a home loan now. The banks are not lending, at least from what
I see. They were so wild and reckless back in the good times that
they got burned terribly.
“Once burned, twice shy,” as the saying goes. That’s the way it
is now. Yes, the banks will borrow from the Fed at zero percent and
relend to the Treasury at 2.8 percent. That business is working
well for the banks. But if you want to know why the housing market
is kaput, look no farther than banks that won’t lend.
But if you want to see why the economy is so stubbornly weak,
you have to look a little farther.
Warren E. Buffett, probably the smartest man of business that
there has ever been, told me last year and the year before that he
would start hiring in large numbers, or in any numbers to speak of
at all, when the demand revived and there was more purchasing.
He is probably doing just the right thing for his
stockholders.
But there is slack demand for some excellent reasons:
(1) Americans are terrified because so many of them have been
laid off in recent years and months and they fear that they may be
next. Even if they have not been laid off or have not known anyone
laid off, they definitely know someone who has lost his home. That
scares people into not buying anything they can avoid buying.
(2) Much of the demand for durable goods comes from people
buying new homes or buying existing homes and refurnishing them.
This just is not happening at all.
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 12.2.11 @ 8:32AM
Mr. Stein, you are a lucky man but you have a blind spot.
You claim someone like Warren Buffet is a great investor, etc., but the fact is 25% of his wealth was saved by the U.S. taxpayers courtesy of TARP. It's hard to estimate how much more he makes in insurance products due to irrational government regulations and laws.
What irks me the most about him is that he claims his taxes are too low. Nothing prevents him from donating 10 billion to the government today. Instread he started a charity which protects his assets from the government.
However, I continue to wish you more luck, because luck is simply hard work.
A Smarter Guy| 12.2.11 @ 12:27PM
Mr. O'Stalin -
Your solution is nonsensical. Even if Mr Buffett paid all his net worth to the US Treasury, it would make barely a dent in the US debt problem.
Zen Master| 12.2.11 @ 12:30PM
Mr O'Stalin, you sound like you are begrudging Mr Buffett's hard work in bending the world to his advantage.
You should wish him more luck, because luck is simply hard work.
Occam's Tool| 12.2.11 @ 6:53PM
Bill---or Warren's company simply PAYING its back taxes.
Stein---I just refinanced my house this year which I had bought in 2008, switching from a 30 year mortgage (with equity accelerator) at about 6.5% to a 15 year mortgage (with equity accelerator) at 4.625 %---it will be paid off in approximately 11 years now. Easy peasy.
Of course, my income is 50% HIGHER than my mortgage, because I'm not a Malibu Moron. May be that's why it was easy for me to get my house---3300 square feet, 5 bedrooms, 3 baths, 2.5 acres, current market value $280K, Taxable worth---$218,000. I love living in small towns. My income is in the top 2 or 3 percent. But, of course, it goes a LOT farther here.
Occam's Tool| 12.2.11 @ 7:18PM
By the way, Ben, we don't need higher taxes, at least not until we eliminate multiple Goverment Cabinet level departments, eliminate NPR, National Endowment for the Arts, CPB, etc.
Incidentally, Ben, I pay my taxes with ease, always have in my checking account an equivalency of 3 months of my complete monthly take home pay, and put away roughly 16-20% of my pre-tax gross pay in retirement savings/investments. I don't pay my taxes "with gusto," but, even though I live in MN, not noted as a low tax haven, I don't sweat my taxes---my state ones are paid on time, always, by automatic deposit, and my Federal ones are usually paid one month in advance. I also take out fewer deductions on my paycheck than I am absolutely entitled to, to make sure I don't owe any money I can be penalized on.
I am not exceptional. I am just a guy who lives simply, buys his pants from Walmart, his shirts (ALWAYS short sleeved---I love MN because at 20 degrees I start to feel properly cool) from JC Penney, and his shoes (LL Bean tieless shoes) from LLBean for about $20.00/pair.
I have set up my practice so that my sole true overhead is about $10.00/month for family dental coverage, and $130.00/month for family medical (BC/BS). No malpractice insurance fees or office overhead---that is paid for by my contractorees in my private work, and my State employers in my State work.
My investments are handled by a summa cum laude accountant who reads the balance sheets and financial statements of the companies I look at---my wife; and my kids aren't spoiled---strangers note their manners as exceptional; however, they have multiple toys and incredible stuffed animals including a Kiwi and Shark from New Zealand and an Attwater Prairie Chicken.
My work place is incredible and my work is as socially beneficial as any in Medicine. I am a Blessed, blessed, man, and I owe it all to G-d and my fantastic wife and friends. When I took out loans to pay for my medical school and residency costs, some of them were government loans at about 9-15% interest. Not subsidized. All were paid back by the start of 1995---I started practice in July of 93, and owed about $80K.
In short, Ben, shut up on taxes or quit whining. Myself, I wish you would shut up, as the quality of life in Alabama is better than that of Southern California. As I practiced for 7 years in Alabama and graduated from residency from UCLA, I know PRECISELY what I'm talking about. Your views contributed to the bankruptcy of your state, and its scuzzy quality of Life, while destroying the quality of your public universities. My views are the type that made AL boom and will make MN boom, as well.
As a Jewish psychiatrist, I am an expert in whining and guilt ladling. You are not useful at it.
George | 12.4.11 @ 10:41PM
Amen.
Westie| 12.5.11 @ 8:17PM
Bravo Doctor! I see Ben stein irritates you as he does me. His warren Buffett fetish is completely unbecoming. I see Buffett as the worse sort of Capitalist next to GE's crooked CEO.
Wilford| 12.2.11 @ 8:48AM
My life's a wreck.
Unemployed. Mortgage due. Bad health. No health insurance. But I'm not worried.
I've put it all in the hands of Jesus.
If all of us could just adopt my attitude, we'd be a happier nation. Just put it in the hands of Jesus.
Occam's Tool| 12.2.11 @ 9:59PM
Wilford: may your lot improve, sir. G-d Bless.
Clint| 12.3.11 @ 1:25PM
A pity you're a loser.
mzk1| 12.3.11 @ 2:53PM
So it's not only Jews Clint has a problem with. Unless this is someone spoofing him, he is just sick.
Bill| 12.2.11 @ 10:16AM
If the unemployment is creating a greater crisis among black Americans than among non-black Americans, then by all means whatever programs the government can create to make jobs for black Americans should be done.
I also believe that taxes are the burden we bear for good government. I pay my taxes, now it's time for the government to provide that good government. Get on it, people. And in the meantime, how's about cutting back on that non-Constitutional spending? Because I'm willing to pay taxes to have a frugal government and am far less willing to pay taxes to a profligate government.
Scott| 12.2.11 @ 12:46PM
Well said Bill. We have a huge problem when the gov's is only collecting 13% of GDP, and spending 26%. Long-term, spending needs to get back to around 21%, and revenue needs to come back to its long run average of 18%. A 3% annual deficit is something that is sustainable long-term. a 13% annual deficit is a recipie for bankruptcy.
Scott| 12.2.11 @ 12:43PM
I don't undesrstand his comments about banks not lending. Yeah, they aren't lending to unemployed people or to those where the house payment is 60% of their income, but they are most certainly lending to traditonal, conforming style mortgages.
I just closed on a new home this summer, with only 5% down. The payment is less than 15% of my income, and it closed without a hitch.
Liz| 12.2.11 @ 1:04PM
Actually, that means that you are not the average buyer, Scott. I suspect that your income is above the average wage (if that 15% of your income claim is true and figuring a reasonably average home of around $200K). I even hazard to guess you bought a foreclosure and the bank was happy to give you whatever break they could to be rid of it.
That kind of lending excludes most average middle-class workers who make maybe $40-45K a year with only one spouse working. I live in an area where foreclosures are high, yet the banks only want to resell to speculators who are buying at fire sale prices and then renting them out at far higher rates than most financially pressed families can afford.
I own my own house and am NOT in foreclosure, but cannot sell my house in this market because no one wants to pay what it's worth (even with deflation). They all want to offer me half and then rent it out at full value PLUS. I'm just going to cut out the middle man and rent it out myself.
Scott| 12.2.11 @ 2:58PM
Liz, while my income is higher than average....my lender had approved me for a mortgage up to 30% of my income....which for a $45k/yr income would come to around $1,100/month....where mortgage rates are now, that would buy a $150-$160k house, with a small down payment.
The real issue of course is that with 9%+ unemployment, there aren't enough people out there that can even manage to come up with a 5% down payment and have a verifiable income. So, to respond to Ben's point, the problem isn't the banks not lending, the problem is there aren't jobs.
Kudos for going the route of renting yourself. I have two rentals myself, including one which was my prior personal residence that I couldn't sell either.
Occam's Tool| 12.2.11 @ 7:30PM
Nicely done, Scott. And, if you bought a properly evaluated foreclosure home, or live in, say, Killeen, TX, that would be quite a nice home.
***********************************************
By the way, Ben, Beverly Hills sucks. Been there, done that. Just how often do you go to the Getty Art Museum, the LA Philharmonic, etc.? If the answer is not very often, then you are paying an enormous price for easy access to things that you do not use. Why don't you consider moving to the Deep South, instead, where they are more Republican and less idiotic? You can still get ad gigs from there.
Surin West in B'ham, AL, offers Thai just as good as LA, their Ruth's Chris is better than the one in Beverly Hills (personal experience), and their art museum in B'ham is magnificent. Their property taxes are a FRACTION of what you get gouged in So Cal.
Think more and suffer less, Ben.
George | 12.4.11 @ 10:46PM
I love living in the Deep South! No state income tax, nice weather, good roads.
Every article I ever read by Ben, he always mentions he lives in Beverly Hills. Big Deal.
Liz| 12.2.11 @ 12:55PM
The unemployment issues for the younger generation could be solved with the national service plan Sam Nunn put forward almost 30 years ago. Modeled on the plans many other countries have, it would require all young people not already in college or the military to put in a minimum of two years service to the country. They could join the military, work on construction projects or in public offices to learn a skill and to earn some money for their future. That money could go for college, a house or whatever else.
I know this sounds vaguely socialist to some, but why not? Many of those kids in the inner city are not learning job skills or even getting a basic education. The national service plan Nunn proposed also included a requirement that the young without HS diplomas earn their GEDs. In the end, they have viable skills and work that needs to get done gets taken care of.
I also don't mind paying my taxes, but not at the expense of corporate breaks and the continued bleeding of funds to offshore accounts that make the rich richer and less accountable--both financially and ethically.
I am sure Ben knows this already, but most other countries have laws that determine how much money a CEO can make in ratio to the regular workers. So the boss only benefits when the actual producers benefit. The Ayn Rand attitude so prevalent right now that says the workers are the parasites is going to kill this nation faster than anything.
And, Ben, Julie is adorable.
Peppermint Tea| 12.2.11 @ 1:08PM
Ben,
You should be so lucky that Obama hasn't figured out how to tax your new dog.
Tea for Two| 12.2.11 @ 1:45PM
That dog you see in the photo is not Ben Stein's dog.
That dog (his name is Brucey) belongs to Ben's neighbor, Trauta Kawatski and her son. I know because I live in the neighborhood.
Don't know why Ben is "pretending" it's his dog.
The man has problems. (Did you read the post before this where Ben claimed a woman was going to sue him?)
Occam's Tool| 12.2.11 @ 7:31PM
He doesn't want his dog identified. The man is a "C" lister pretending to be a 90 calibre.
George | 12.4.11 @ 10:49PM
I thought that dog was older than 8. I had it figured for 10 or 11, using my own ancient hound as a benchmark.
The poser, using a doggie double.
SusieQ| 12.2.11 @ 1:46PM
This is satire, right? No?
Only in America could a man who owns five houses in the wealthiest parts of the country whine about how bad he has it. Only in America could the same man, without a drop of irony, feel the zeitgeist of the Great Depression haunting him as he compares the luxury of one of his hotel rooms to another.
Wow...just wow.
Scott| 12.2.11 @ 3:01PM
Haha...i was thinking the same thing as I read this. Stein is as detached from reality as they come.
Carolyn Flynn| 12.2.11 @ 2:48PM
What a waste of my time to read this trash! I have better things to do than pour over this drivel. I had hoped you would have had something of importance to say about the current economic crisis, the worst of which is yet to come. I will end my e-subscription to this "publication" and save myself valuable time in the future for items of value.
bsg| 12.2.11 @ 6:20PM
Did Ben just discover that we are in a recession?
Niniane| 12.2.11 @ 3:25PM
I suffer a lot staying in luxury suites which means I have to cash in the life insurance and remortgage the house to pay for one night. I certainly feel your pain, and try vitamin C and echinacea for your interminable colds. Cuss words deleted.
Occam's Tool| 12.2.11 @ 7:36PM
And Ben, men who work and own property are less likely to be on the streets committing crimes. Your knowledge of how humans operate is pathetic. Your view that we want to set things up so that our political adversaries and their children (in our own country) suffer from joblessness and poverty is horrific. You, sir, are a schlemiel.
mzk1| 12.3.11 @ 2:56PM
Your antipathy kept you form reading what he said. He wasn't waying no to help them, he was saying that it would not help Republican candidates to emphasize this issue above all others.
mzk1| 12.3.11 @ 3:04PM
"saying not to"
Ned the Red| 12.3.11 @ 9:39AM
Use cheap energy of the oil variety as often as possible. Your last paragraph explains why it isn't cheap.
mzk1| 12.3.11 @ 3:03PM
I have a friend, a Russian Jew living in Scotland at the time, who had some very nice offers (he is an expert in some sort of optics), including one from a company in CA. At the end, he decided to move to Israel and take a lower salary.
What happened to the company that made him the offer? The crunch came, and although they had contracts in hand, the banks still would not lend them money. So they went bankrupt, and added to the unemployment.
Banks clearly overreacted. I don't know whether they did this themselves, or from fear of the government. Of course, the new regulations don't help, and OWS is going in the precise wrong direction.
P.S. Housing prices were too high. They should not return to the previous levels. (I hope they come down here in Israel, preferably wihout wrecking the economy.)
R Scott| 12.4.11 @ 2:07PM
Did I just read Stein correctly? Does he espouse our Republican legislators not to worry or try to fix the high unemployment rate because most of the unemployed are Democrats? I cannot read to read his follow-up piece, "I was mugged and robbed by and unemployed Democrat."
George | 12.4.11 @ 10:35PM
Am I the only one that finds it hard to picture Ben Stein "mobbed by fans"?
wedding dresses | 12.6.11 @ 3:33AM
Of course, my income is 50% HIGHER than my mortgage, because I'm not a Malibu Moron. May be that's why it was easy for me to get my house---3300 square feet, 5 bedrooms, 3 baths, 2.5 acres, current market value $280K, Taxable worth---$218,000. I love living in small towns. My income is in the top 2 or 3 percent. But, of course, it goes a LOT farther here.