The first attempt at a breakthrough in Burmese/U.S. relations
was reported in classified State Department cables in 2009,
according to Wikileaks’ document release. A well-connected “Burmese
businessman” was used as an informal and confidential intermediary
by the Burmese government to initiate behind-the-scenes discussions
to counteract a review in progress in Washington aimed at
tightening economic sanctions. Only one month before the
businessman’s contact, U.S. Senator James Webb had been impressed
during his Burmese trip by the local view that the existing
sanctions had effectively “handed over” Burma to Beijing.
The Burmese government now headed by the retired general
Thein Sein has edged towards a reconciliation with the West and
particularly the United States for the past year. That President
Barack Obama saw fit to telephone “the lady,” Aung San Suu Kyi,
before deciding to send Hillary Clinton to Rangoon this week may
have appeared an unusual courtesy. It was in fact a display of a
lack of confidence in his own diplomatic and intelligence services
that recommended the trip. Obama’s call to Suu Kyi was once again
an attempt — oddly not unlike Richard Nixon and other insecure
leaders — to inject himself on a personal basis rather than
utilize normal chain-of-command governmental exchanges in foreign
affairs.
The image of the knight, Sir Barack, riding to the rescue
of the distressed damsel, Suu Kyi, perhaps accompanied a White
House desire to avoid presenting Mrs. Clinton with the chance to be
credited with the breakthrough on the long blocked Burma/U.S.
relations. Of course the fact that the Obama flacks are actively
burnishing the president’s foreign policy credentials also cannot
be ruled out. In any case, the American president seeking
reelection at a time when his Middle East non-policy is prominently
displayed finds it very convenient to adjust White House focus to
the highly dramatic plight of Burma and the long suffering heroine,
Aung San Suu Kyi.
The appointed Burmese president, Thein Sein, who is being
credited with the new direction of Burmese politics, is definitely
one of the “insiders” in the military-controlled government. He was
the prime minister for four years in an earlier administration. For
that reason, his statements during the past year that emphasized a
reorientation of internal priorities and a willingness to work with
others who “hold different ideas and concepts” (his words) has
given a new tone to the governance of his country.
The reason for the changed focus is less altruistic than
it might appear. Thein Sein wants Burma to take major steps toward
regaining international status and, most importantly, to have
existing sanctions removed. For the moment his willingness to
loosen domestic police constraints appears to have the support of
key generals of the junta. It may be that the latter finally have
recognized that they face either national stagnation or forced
reliance on their big brother — The Peoples’ Republic of China.
This latter issue already has become a problem. Burma’s
northeastern border with China is booming with Chinese commerce to
the point that the renminbi has become the currency of
choice.
In addition to being a captured market for Chinese goods
and services, Burma with its deposits of natural gas has become a
nearby source for China’s energy import requirements and thus a
target of attempts at Chinese monopoly. China had initiated work on
one of the seven dams planned for the Irrawaddy River, requiring
the relocation of thousands of people. The Chinese plan for
hydro-power development was presented as virtually non-negotiable.
To the surprise of Beijing, the Thein Sein government has halted
the investment project for the Myitsone Dam and work on the dam
itself has stopped. As could be expected, this action by Burma has
caused considerable unease in Sino-Burma relations.
Thein Sein initiated this effort to reduce Burma’s
economic ties to China about the same time as feelers were being
put out for improvement in relations with Washington. Not only does
Burma’s new government want to take steps toward reducing Western
sanctions, but it has become fairly obvious that it is moving
diplomatically to be named to chair the 2014 meeting of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
To gain the active support of the now no longer
incarcerated Aung San Suu Kyi, several hundred political prisoners
have been released as part of an announced program of freeing a
total of two thousand. Suu Kyi is key to improved U.S. relations,
and she has so far held up her end of the bargain with Thein Sein
of non-disruptive politics. She has told the BBC that she perceives
Thein Sein as committed to change — at least as can be determined
presently. This statement preceded the announcement that the United
States’ Secretary of State would visit Burma.
The White House views the adjustment in U.S. relations
with Burma as part of the “peace-maker” image for Obama during his
run for re-election. As is true on the domestic scene, everything
in foreign affairs accomplished by the sitting president during
2012 must be patterned in such a way as to redound to Obama’s
benefit as a friend of world peace. Somehow that seems a harder
sell to Beijing, with the White House deciding to jump into the
Burmese political stew at this time.
