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The Nation's Pulse
Crime Doesn’t Pay
Lower crime rates: It’s not the economy, stupid!
Americans, generally speaking, tend to go in for easy explanations of why crime rates rise and fall. Chief among them is the Poverty Theory of Crime. This explanation popped up again at a dinner party the other night. We were discussing the large number of burglaries in my neighborhood when someone commented that crime was up because the economy was down.
Everyone nodded in agreement.
I don’t particularly relish setting the record straight, especially on contentious issues. Here in the Midwest acting the role of know-it-all is considered bad form. But I couldn’t let the comment pass without pointing out that the U.S. crime rate has been going down for years.
This caused more than a few raised eyebrows.
And why shouldn’t it? The conventional wisdom says crime, especially property crime, should soar during tough economic times. But last year property crime decreased 2.8 percent. In 2009, at the peak of the recession, property crime decreased 4.6 percent. Even when the economy was in ruins during the Great Depression crime remained relatively low. On the other hand, in the boom times of the 1960s, crime skyrocketed. Like a good deal of human behavior, the pattern seems counter-intuitive, if not a complete enigma.
If Einstein had his dream of a unified theory of the universe, criminologists also have their impossible dream: a unified theory that explains crime. Thus far, it has proved equally as elusive.
Conservative criminologists have long embraced the theory that crime is a purely economic decision. Before crime began to fall in 1992, a criminal’s odds of being apprehended were perhaps ten to one. Even if he were arrested, he was unlikely to be prosecuted or, still less likely, convicted. And if he were to serve jail time, he would be at large soon enough, only this time enjoying an extra dose of “street cred.” A life of crime was for many well worth the risk and investment. Crime paid.
Yet, to buy into this theory, we must accept that criminals are rational beings who judge the costs-benefits ratio carefully, instead of irrational, impulsive actors incapable of forethought or weighing long-term consequences. Some are, some are not.
Or one might turn to demographic and social factors. Crime often goes up with the number of young men in a population. The high-crime Sixties and Seventies occurred during a baby boom. As these young men “aged out” in the Eighties, homicide rates fell for the first time in decades. One likely way to lower crime rates would be to stop having children. Male children, in particular.
Morality could also play a role. Beginning in the mid-Sixties, politicians, community leaders, and intellectuals began to blame society for crime, rather than criminals. Would-be outlaws not only believed they could get away with their misdeeds, but believed they had God on their side, since society had dealt them a raw hand. Today, only politicians, community leaders, and intellectuals still believe this.
AS FOR FALLING CRIME RATES, liberals like to attribute the decline to better community policing and more social programs. These factors cannot be completely ruled out. Cops have to some degree succeeded in brokering truces between homicidal drug gangs. Meanwhile the extension of unemployment benefits may have prevented some crime (domestic abuse, for instance) in the short-term. But increases in government handouts have, for much of the past fifty years, mirrored steep rises in crime.
Ohio State University professor Douglas Berman attributes the decrease in crime to an increase in technology. And he doesn’t mean DNA testing, surveillance cameras, and crime mapping systems. Berman says people today spend less time outside where they might fall victim to violent crime, and more time inside at their computers, big-screen TVs, and video games. This may explain why, in my inner-city neighborhood at least, most crimes seem to be property related (smash and grabs from cars and stolen copper pipes from empty homes), instead of violent crimes.
There are, however, a few policies for lowering crime whose effectiveness are beyond debate. The high incarceration rates we’ve seen throughout the past two decades have undeniably reduced crime. Simply put, criminals cannot be breaking the law if they are locked up. Meanwhile New York City has shown that more cops and better policing can be a lot more effective than a strong economy at reducing crime.
The fact that some 2,300,000 Americans are presently incarcerated is both a tragedy and a blessing. A George Orwell is hardly necessary to imagine the dramatic consequences if that population were suddenly turned loose on our cities. Community policing and remaining indoors may or may not be effective at curbing crime, but there is no denying that, to quote former British Conservative Party Leader Michael Howard, “prison works.” That’s not a theory. That’s a fact.
About the Author
Christopher Orlet writes from St. Louis.
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 12.1.11 @ 6:22AM
Funny article. The truth is usually humorous.
Michael Tomlinson| 12.1.11 @ 7:38AM
Crime pays if you're a Democrat politician just ask Bawney Frank.
Stan Redmond| 12.1.11 @ 1:27PM
And Franklin Raines, and Dodd, and Tim Geitner, and Barak Obama, and Rangel..........
Occam's Tool| 12.3.11 @ 1:19AM
As a population ages, it's crime rates go down. Also, as Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton age, their criminal behaviors will also decrease.
The same is true for George McGovern, as well.
Occam's Tool| 12.3.11 @ 1:30AM
So sorry---tired. Its crime rates go down...
Damn.
rd| 12.1.11 @ 7:41AM
So, let's see then, Mr. Orlet. Everybody purchasing home security alarm systems, double-triple locking their doors, doing all kinds of "tricks" to make it still seem like they are home when going for a two week vacation....
So people do all these things just because they have nothing better to do?
Lessee, you wrote an article about a 2.8% decrease in a 'certain type of crime.' Whooowheeee, we have some sharp minds at work here! Dummy, that is a mere pencil-push alteration of a few figures. Coulda just as easily gone the other way, if the pencil pusher wanted it to.
Let me see the locks and security precautions that you take. Oh, that's right; you leave your front and back doors unlocked. No need to lock them. Same for your car doors. After all, crime is down, right?
If you believe the published (official) crime statistics, then you are stupid.
Ever heard of a local or state govmint official massaging the numbers?
The day you'll stop your stupid remarks about less crime on the streets will be the day your cranium is cracked, all for the purpose of obtaining your wallet. Or your home ransacked. Hard to say which will come first. But these events will occur. And then let's see what you say at the dinner party on the subject of crime.
Ryan| 12.1.11 @ 8:45AM
If you have facts to prove your point, then use them.
random| 12.1.11 @ 9:53AM
I have this fact: Depending on the situation, time of day, police shift on duty, police supervisor on duty, other circumstances, a crime may very well go unreported.
Happened here just two weeks ago.
A reported crime means: Paperwork, TIME & Effort, filing, cataloging, entering into database, follow-up work, viewing mugshots?
That can be just too much work!!
This is exactly what happened at the local precinct.
See, a crime is not a crime unless they (the police/law enforcement) decide to document it as a crime.
Also:
If a police chief wants to demonstrate his merits as a tough crime fighter who has made the city streets safer than they've been in the last decade, well, crime statistics will fall then, won't they?
Doesn't your local sheriff do just this when he's up for reelection?
Jacob R| 12.1.11 @ 10:54AM
And then when they're bloodsucking for more pensions they talk about lower crime rates.
A group of hooligans literally tried to beat me up in my home over a dispute I had with a girl. The girl then used the Ventura police department to bring me up on charges for harrassment. The cops told me I was a coward and I should be a man when I tried to report an attempted assault.
The entire justice system refused to report that. But I guess if you compensate for the made up crime they charged me with it counts.
But there are literally psychopaths in many positions of government and the justice system in Ventura County but then you hear people go on about how heroic they are.
They also refused to report it as a crime when the Mongols biking club broke in and peed on the altar of a local Catholic church.
So in my experience they're 1 for 3.. And the one was a corrupt report where they decided I was the male and not white enough so I was evil and it was all my fault despite any proof that I had.
My lawyer who was best friends with the DA talked to me like the corrupt detective did and also refused to listen...he wanted easy money and a defense would have been harder than just taking my money and doing the DA a favor.
So these people are heroes who were willing to screw my life over for a little more pension money or quick lawyers fees.
This is why Ventura County is constantly investigated by the FBI but apparently they can't find anyone who isn't willing to be corrupt to get back at the people they demonize.
Another cop there told me he was going to take me around the corner and bash my brains in for calling him a coward after he cut me off and pulled me over for it. If you're someone who thinks cops should act that way and I deserved it then you're exactly the type who should never be a part of the justice system. Unfortunately we tolerate the criminals there who do far more harm to society than the vast majority of "criminals" who committed small offenses and would change if they weren't sucked in by the parasite satanic group of sadists who hold people hostage for several years over minuscule offenses.
There are slick defense lawyers and people who get away with stuff while a disconcerting number of psychos who run the criminal "justice" system get off on torturing nonviolent offenders; the world isn't black and white on either side!
useful real life story| 12.1.11 @ 12:23PM
How about this law enforcement official in Colorado. Sheriff of the year! Link: http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_19437474
So, tell me, did this former sheriff just all of a sudden go sour? Or has he been 'sour' for a long, long, long time?
Of note: I was going to give you a Rocky Mountain News story on Sheriff Sullivan, but the Rocky Mountain News has just gone out of business: http://www.rockymountainnews.com/ Now the liberal Denver Post has rule of the roost. Gads.
No, Sheriff Sullivan probably n-e-v-e-r falsified any crime statistics.
Seek| 12.1.11 @ 2:25PM
I long ago gave up on assuming goodness in the human condition. Film noir isn't just something I see on the silver screen; it's something live. Cops, prosecutors and judges are the most corrupt people on earth -- except for everyone else.
Occam's Tool| 12.3.11 @ 1:21AM
No, I think Prosecutors and Judges are more corrupt than most---some cops actually are OK people. But very few of the 1st two class are, in my long and extensive experience. (Expert witness experience)
Occam's Tool| 12.3.11 @ 1:29AM
Jacob: having worked with the LAPD and the LASD for four years, you have a good point here.
Rob Schapiro| 12.1.11 @ 7:54AM
Why do most drivers obey the posted speed limits and other traffic rules? Because they expect to be caught and punished if they speed or drive recklessly.
More police on the beat = less crime.
Stuart Koehl| 12.1.11 @ 8:46AM
Actually, even a casual observation of the roads reveals that most drivers do NOT obey the speed limits unless they believe or know that there is a speed trap nearby. Most people drive at speeds dictated by road conditions and the speed of other cars, which is why, especially on highways, those who drive at the posted limit becomes hazards in and of themselves. The consensus speed limit--the one observed by most people, and the one truly enforced by the police, is the 85th percentile speed--the speed under which 85% of all the traffic is moving. On interstate highways, that's typically between 70-75 mph, regardless of the posted limit. Cops usually stop only those who exceed the 85th percentile speed, or who are driving in a reckless manner (which can include driving too slowly).
Moe Blotz| 12.1.11 @ 12:05PM
You must be a fellow member of NMA. Something I do not understand about people driving within 10 mph of posted speed limits: When they see a police car they slam on the brakes. Whether 35 mph or 80 mph, the brake lights come on.
Occam's Tool| 12.3.11 @ 1:23AM
It shows respect for the cops, Moe. This assumes that most police are thugs with a strong bully boy narcissistic streak. tTey live for the "respect."
Stuart Koehl| 12.1.11 @ 8:42AM
The root cause of crime is criminals. Take criminals off the street, and crime rates fall. Keep them off the streets, and they continue to fall. It must be accepted that a certain percentage of the population will be attracted to crime for any number of reasons, all of which are irrelevant. The only relevant fact is they commit crimes. Stop them, stop crime.
Occam's Tool| 12.3.11 @ 1:24AM
Stuart---age tends to diminish violent psychopathy.
Timothy L. Pennell| 12.1.11 @ 9:36AM
Anyone who believes any of the numbers that this BIG LIE Administration puts out, is a Fool.
Crime is NOT Down. It's UP. And I know this, because the MUSLIM says otherwise.
Petronius| 12.1.11 @ 9:58AM
In this country there is an innate desire to "beat the system", to "get away with it." Nothing fosters criminal activity more than people seeing somebody who is well connected skate after doing something they would get locked up for if one of them did the same. Street justice, unlike the black robed variety, satisfies. And a lot of people envy and adore criminals but won't admit it. There are very few in any population who do not have some kind of grudge with institutional authority and with those who abuse it because they can, and enjoy doing it. The self serving legal establishment comes first on that hit parade, as they have their own laundry lists of preferred victims and offenders they hate.
Examining crime rates and variations amounts to little until we get to the collective mindset of the criminal class. At street level, it's usually spite, but it's always disregard. Rules and laws are for society's doormats who are powerless or foolishly altruistic. White collar crime is about shortcuts. Scammers and embezzlers have discovered the revenue stream, but honest dealing takes too long. We can crunch statistics and follow demographics until we can't see straight, but the bottom line is proper child rearing and acculturation to traditional morality and Normality. The roots of crime require no more dissection than those infamous words of Jim Morrison. "We want the world. And we want it Now."
Jacob R| 12.1.11 @ 10:35AM
Yea it makes great sense to lock up petty criminals with violent ones. In your world is it also a myth that having to survive an American prison can turn someone violent? Do you also believe that war doesn't make you violent?
I'm all for justice, but these things usually seem to devolve into "the noble justice system" torturing large amounts of people because they can show you proof that a certain percentage of them really do deserve it!
What's that quote about the state without morality as the greatest band of robbers?
Grandpa| 12.1.11 @ 10:53AM
You didn't mention relaxed gun laws over the last decade. It has become easier for law-abiding citizens to carry pistols for their own protection. The cities with the highest crime rates (think New York or Chicago) are also those with the strictest gun control laws.
DRed| 12.1.11 @ 11:52AM
NY is one of the safest large cities in America. Dallas and Houston are two of the most dangerous. It's just not as simple as looking at gun control laws.
Tom| 12.1.11 @ 4:29PM
Well, like they say, there's lies, damned lies, and statistics. Not saying your wrong. But New York or Texas? I'll take my chances with the Texans any time.
DRed| 12.1.11 @ 7:27PM
The weather and the BBQ are far superior in Texas. It's not an irrational choice.
Occam's Tool| 12.3.11 @ 1:26AM
And the people, DRed. Texans are much nicer than New Yorkers. (As a Chicago grad of TCU, I've got dual reasons for knowing this is so.)
Watashi| 12.1.11 @ 12:59PM
Actually, the numbers are not that surprising. Consider boom towns of the old west; the more economic prosperity led to more criminal element trying to usurp a share. Basically - The better the economy, the more opportunities to steal some of it.
Crime like anything else is governed by risk-reward considerations. The hard-core class of criminals only cares about instantaneous opportunities and is committed to a life of crime. But opportunists with questionable morality will not try their hand at crime unless they perceive that there is an adequate reward to risk incarceration.
David| 12.1.11 @ 2:53PM
News for you, Mr. Orlet;
Prison is big business. Locking up and retaining prisoners makes money. There is more demand to create more prisons and generate more money. Thusly more people are getting locked up for minor crimes than ever before.
Economics does play a part in causes of criminal activity. It's a fact. A good deterent is not only better policing by law enforcement, but better policing by community. In areas where Open Carry is allowed, crime is "remarkably" lower or non-existant. This is because the average citizen is allowed to defend his property, family, and self against crime. Areas where citizens are allowed to own firearms, crime is lower. Same reasons.
"Oddly" crime is much higher where people are not allowed to carry or own firearms.
I used some words in quotes because those are the words used by media nitwits as they spew their tripe about crime.
Careful what you wish for| 12.1.11 @ 3:07PM
It is interesting that prison towns actually do generate money. Prisons are magnates. Not only does the local town get a "boost" due to prison staff that now will be hired and live (and shop!) in the local community but also there is a boost when it is visiting days or weekends at the prison. Family visitors come from out of town and need lodging, restaurants, cafes. They buy gas. More inmates = potentially more visitors.
Sure it is a double-edged sword. The boost to the local economy versus the dangers of a nearby prison, a breakout possibility, corrupt prison guards, increased gang activity (often managed from inside), more local drugs, more law enforcement in the area (and the never ending line of carpetbagging gumshoe lawyers).
What city fathers or city managers would wish for a local prison? Obviously some do. It brings $$.
Occam's Tool| 12.3.11 @ 1:27AM
Having worked at multiple prisons and seen and occasionally shopped in areas around them, I can tell you that they tend to be located in economically depressed areas. Los Lunas, NM is no dream spot.
DRed| 12.1.11 @ 3:22PM
Is that why Nashville and Memphis have such low rates of violent crime?
Radioman777| 12.1.11 @ 6:11PM
Crime doesn't pay? Of course it does; otherwise it'd be non-existent. Any reduction in crime over the past few years would primarily not be due to defensive measures (e.g. alarm systems). Most residential burglaries take less than 90 seconds and it takes about half an hour for the police to show up, if they do at all. Moreover, only about 13% of all residential burglaries are ever solved. The police generally don't bother investigating very thoroughly, preferring instead for the insurance company to handle the fallout (usually the breakpoint is about $5k before significant police involvement, but this varies from locale to locale). The increase in armed homeowners is a substantial deterrent to home invasion, as quite a number of would-be invaders have found this particular line of work to have a lot of occupational risk. Many types of crimes are not reported, especially if the amount of loss is fairly small and involving the police won't do much to help recoup losses (i.e. loss < insurance deductible). However, the idea that prison in and of itself reduces crime is foolish. Locking up criminals is certainly a good idea, but he seems to assume a 100% recidivism rate. The fear of prison or other consequences have no real bearing on the behavior of certain elements of society (think gangs, where members don't often hold their own lives in high regard). And, staying inside, distracted by various forms of technology, is an ignorant assumption. Unless one were a complete hermit, contact with the outside world is inevitable. I could go on and on, but suffice it to say, I find this article to be deeply flawed in both its premise and conclusions.
Appleby| 12.2.11 @ 7:59PM
More than half the Black babies are aborted before they can grow up in fatherless households with the only ambitious role models available being other Black fatherless gangsters. Taking a coldblooded look at the declining crime rate will show you that the crime nurseries are considerably less populated than they used to be; and the younger the Perps are caught and locked up, the fewer babies they will sire and abandon. Welfare is getting harder to obtain and even when one does obtain it, there are a lot more rules about what you can and cannot get; in Georgia for example, once you and your family get on the dole, your family size is frozen and no matter how many fatherless babies you pop out, your cheque remains where it was when you got on -- and the duration of receipt of welfare is fixed at a finite number of years. Its not only crime that no longer pays; its the production of future criminals.
race_to_the_bottom| 12.5.11 @ 1:38AM
The murder rate in the US is now roughly what it was in the early 60s. I just checked. The incarceration rate was much lower then. If the incarceration theory is correct, then the murder rate should be much LOWER than in the 60s.
Furthermore, the crime rate in the US is still MUCH higher than countries which have a MUCH lower incarceration rate.
Crime is a complex phenomenon, but availability of firearms, poverty, breakdown of community, unemployment, poverty and other factors interact to produce it.
Furthermore, there is something radically wrong with a society which has to keep 2.3 million people in cages in order to function. Anyone who spends any time in more civilized counries senses this immediately. The US mass culture has a very coarse, violent, character to it.