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Sports Arena
Should Matt Kemp Have Won the NL MVP?
Why Ryan Braun proved more valuable.
Ryan Braun won the National League’s Most Valuable Player award on Tuesday. But a lot of sports fans think Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp was more deserving. Kemp did have a better year. He hit 39 home runs to Braun’s 33. Kemp and Braun are both average defensive players. But Kemp plays center field, a demanding position usually manned by defensive specialists who can’t hit a lick, not someone who hits .324 with power. Braun plays left field, a far easier position where offensive production is part of the job description. The reliable Kemp didn’t miss a game all season. Braun missed a dozen with a bum leg, and played hurt for the better part of a month. Was Kemp robbed?
The reason Kemp lost was that his Dodgers were a middling team this year, finishing with an 82-79 record. Braun’s Milwaukee Brewers won 96 games and nearly made it to the World Series. The 32 sportswriters who vote for the NL MVP – two from each NL team’s city – have a well-known bias in favor of players from contending teams. In essence, Kemp was punished for the sin of having less talented teammates than Braun. How is this fair?
As it turns out, it’s perfectly fair. Kemp had the better year, but Braun created more value – and remember, this is the Most Valuable Player award. To find out why, you need to think at the margin. That means thinking of how much value one more victory would create.
We can do that with the help of a statistic some pointy-headed number crunchers invented not too long ago. It’s called Wins Above Replacement, or WAR. It tries to measure the difference between a major league player and a hypothetical replacement player brought up from the minors. With Matt Kemp in the lineup instead of his AAA replacement, the Dodgers won 10 extra games. Braun’s WAR was 7.7.
Again, Kemp clearly had a better 2011. But at the margin, Braun was far more valuable. Without Kemp, the Dodgers would have won 72 games. With him, they won 82. That’s not a big difference at the margin. It’s nice to finish above .500, but there’s no real difference between a 72-win season and an 82-win season. You miss the playoffs either way.
Braun took the Brewers from 88 wins to 96 wins. There is a world of difference between 88 wins and 96 wins. It’s the difference between missing the playoffs and winning the division. Every single win that Braun created was absolutely crucial to the Brewers playing in the postseason instead of watching it from home.
So even though Braun created fewer wins, each of them was extremely valuable. That’s why he’s the MVP.
The MVP voters’ longstanding bias against superior players on inferior teams can be maddening when a player has a year like Kemp had and doesn’t win. But while I doubt any of the sportswriters have advanced degrees in economics, they seem to instinctively know the value of thinking at the margin.
Kemp did win a Silver Slugger award, given to the best offensive player at each position. That’s not a bad consolation prize. Of course, Braun won one, too.
Still, I think Kemp can have the last laugh. Earlier this year, Braun signed a 10-year, $105 million contract extension. But Kemp just signed a new contract himself. Between now and 2019, Braun will earn $111.5 million in salary. Kemp will make $158 million. He may be understandably salty about not winning the MVP, but he has some bragging rights of his own.
About the Author
Ryan Young is Fellow in Regulatory Studies at the Competitive Enterprise Institute.
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Timothy L. Pennell| 11.23.11 @ 6:18AM
What I wanna know, is how Verlander gets the AL MVP? In 78, Ron Guidry goes 25-3, with an ERA of 1.73. The Yankees win the World Series.
Jim Rice, of the Boston Red Sox, gets the MVP.
Please explain.
P.S. Are You Dwight Schrute's kid?
RJ| 11.23.11 @ 6:43AM
Kemp an "average defensive player?" He won the gold glove award this year. I certainly recognize that awards usually go to players on winning teams, but that is more due to the publicity which goes with it. If Kemp's average was a little higher, he would have won the Triple Crown and I expect that most people believe he would have won MVP easily, which weakens the theory of why he didn't win. It seems to me that a player who has a WAR of 10 is more valuable than a player whose WAR is 7.7. There is no consistent logic as to who wins, but I agree, the player on the winning team has the best chance of walking away with the award.
albert constantine jr.| 11.23.11 @ 9:13AM
If MVP or any other award was simply a matter of crunching numbers, they could be selected by computers. Sports writers are a highly flawed pool of voters, but to some extent they reflect the fans (i.e. humanity), and the votes (like most elections) reveal the point where the subjective crosses the objective. As for my own assessment, I did fear Braun more than Kemp each time he faced the Phillies this year.
Michael Hamilton| 11.23.11 @ 10:09AM
This turns marginal utility on its head. A higher WAR means higher marginal utility.
By your logic, even though Braun "had a better year" than Jason Motte, Braun shouldn't have won.
Sure, Motte wasn't incredible and didn't contribute to the cards nearly as much as Braun did to the Brewers, but he threw the last pitch of game 7!
Doorgunner| 11.23.11 @ 11:24AM
He also was sent into a game, and willingly went, by La Russa for the sole purpose of drilling Braun with a fastball. I was there. He missed with the first pitch, hit him in the middle of the back with a 96mph'er, and then was pulled by La Russa.
All because Pujols got hit on the forearm with a clearly errant pitch.
I understand playing' tough, but going in just to bean a guy? Scummy.
SUBVET| 11.24.11 @ 1:54PM
DOORGUNNER....scummy it's part of the game like it or not.
Bob K.| 11.23.11 @ 10:35AM
Throw Pujol's playoff numbers into the picture on top of this year's regular season stats and he should have gotten his 4th MVP.
82 PA, OB 38 times, 41 TB, (12 walks 8 intentional, 2HBP), 24 hits, 5 HR's, 16 RBI's, 15 Runs
They would have been nowhere without him.
Adam Morrow| 11.23.11 @ 11:08AM
At the margin, the 1995 American League MVP is Luis Sojo.
Dave | 11.23.11 @ 11:24AM
No disrespect intended, Ryan, but judging from your photo, your daddy wasn't even a glimmer in your granddaddy's eye yet when Ernie Banks won his first of three MVP awards in the back-to-back seasons of '58 and '59. Back in the day, Ernie's Cubs had about the same competitive standing as today's Baltimore Orioles.
Today, and often due to a players "value" to a team that had some playoff success, the MVP usually goes, not to the player with the best season ending stats, but the one who, as you said, contributed the most to his teams season ending successes.
One more thing. I've made this argument before (to little avail) but will try again. I'm for tossing out today's "combined playoff statistics" and simply separating them into individual stats. (i.e.) Post season playoff records should be listed under "Post Season Playoff Stats." Actual numbers acquired during a World Series should be listed as such. In a nutshell, the playoffs are playoffs and the World Series is played between the two best. I've had a tough time understanding why that concept is so hard to figure out. Records like Mantle's World Series home runs shouldn't be diluted due to other good players of today benefiting from additional a.b.'s and games won in the playoff rounds, then added to what they may accomplish in a World Series. In my mind, the idea of a fine pitcher like Roy Halladay being credited with the most number of no-hitters in the "post season", when Don Larsen tossed his perfect game gem in an actual World Series game, at least, cheapens the accomplishment. Admittedly, Don was a journeyman pitcher who had a really good day, while Halladay is Hall of Fame worthy. I get it. Still, Larsen tossed HIS against the Best of The Day while Roy's "no-no" was done against ... one that was "Pretty Damn Good."
It's kind of like making a pot roast with ingredients bought from the Wal-Mart Super Center as opposed to getting a top grade of meat from Trader Joe's. Anything less just cheapens the dish.
But that's just me. And of course these arguments never get settled. They just keep going 'round and 'round like a kid's Top. But then, today's kids probably don't know what the heck a Top is.
Yeah, I know. Take a nap, gramps. : -)
Bob K.| 11.25.11 @ 12:23PM
In the older days of 2 leagues the 2 best teams did play in the World Series. Now the team that can squeak through 3 short playoff series even without sweeping a single series will be considered the Champion (if not the best!).
Like this year where the National League team with the 4th best won loss record did just that.
And the fact still remains that St. Louis would not have been there without Pujols nor would they have won the playoffs without him. And he had what could be considered, for him, an off year.
So it is clear that the MVP award is not based on who is most valuable to his team on the team that ultimately wins it all.
Occam's Tool| 11.28.11 @ 1:39AM
I love ernie, and had the privilege of meeting him when I was seven at Morrie mage's sports. Unfortunately, he won only two MVPs---they were back to back for last place teams.
Occam's Tool| 11.28.11 @ 1:42AM
Sorry about the caps, there. "Ernie" and "Mage's"
Big T| 11.23.11 @ 12:51PM
I guess if the '79 Cardinals were better, Keith Hernandez may have won the MVP outright that year. Numbers are not always the best way to assess the value of a player. Braun is vocal leader for the Brewers. Kemp was spending a lot of time with Rihanna until she dumped him, so maybe he can focus next year on winning and teh Dodgers can fix their ownership mess. Matt better watch out for Cameron Diaz she will hop on anything that will make her relevant in the tabloids.
Dan Lewis| 11.23.11 @ 3:26PM
Silliest argument ever. Kemp's WAR of 10 constituted 12% of the entire Dodger total of 82, while Braun's 7.7 was just 8.0% of the Brewers' total. Kemp was a full 50% more valuable to his team. And he didn't have Prince Fielder hitting behind him, nor anyone else.
Cato the Younger| 11.24.11 @ 10:35PM
This explanation of why Kemp didn't win MVP explains this:
Player 1: .322 BA, 18 HR, 103 RBI, 8.5 WAR (MVP winner)
Player 2: .356 BA, 36 HR, 145 RBI, 11.0 WAR (Triple Crown winner)
Player 1's team went 103-51, Player 2's team went 93-59. So "at the margin" Player 1's team went from 94 or 95 wins to 103 wins, while Player 2's team went from 82 to 93. Without Player 1, it would have been a tight pennant race. Without Player 2, his team wouldn't have been a contender at all.
You are the first person in history to logically explain how on earth Joe Gordon won the MVP over Ted Williams in 1942. And for that you ought to be hurled out of the economics field like a skinny punk being hurled onto the pavement by a large, irate bouncer.
By the way, being a Giants fan I utterly detest the Dodgers. But Kemp not winning MVP was the biggest robbery since 1942.
Bob K.| 11.25.11 @ 12:33PM
Mr. Young,
Your last paragraph says it all. It is all about money. That is why we have these playoff games to determine who is World Champion late at night in September and October in cold weather so the TV advertising purchased by the networks can be shown after people have gone to sleep.
Someday the geniuses who run the networks will figure this scam out and Baseball will be the better for it.
POST American| 11.26.11 @ 1:39AM
----------------------------UH------------------------------
it's 2011, and the UNDENIABLE 11th hour
of POST America.
PLEASE, a moratoriun on our rectum worshipping
sss--POOR--Ts 'cult-your'.
-------------------------PLEASE!--------------------------
Romulan Alpha34| 11.26.11 @ 5:06PM
Your need for MOAR tinfoil is great, earthling.
Dan Mathewson| 11.26.11 @ 9:01PM
I agree. You need MOAR tinfoil.
POST American| 11.27.11 @ 9:47PM
---------------SSSS------POOR-----Ts ------------------
----------------------'cult-your'---------------------------
----------------------------&--------------------------------
----------------wreck-dom worship---------------------
EVEN AS the American Republic is collapsing,
and RED China-Globalist receivership is
wheeled in, with zealous EUGENICS
management well 'in hand'.
---Even as --Even as
You CAN'T NOT KNOW --it's TRUE.
SO------------just keep a goin' kiddies
------------------Sports, wampum an' Alzheimers
----------------------------------JUST KEEP A GOIN'
Occam's Tool| 11.28.11 @ 1:41AM
Ted Williams was John Glenn's wingman in the Korean war. A discussion of Teddy Ballgame is appropriate in every setting.
Mark MacInnis| 11.28.11 @ 3:59PM
Your opinion is reasoned and valid. However, Mr. Kemp was more valuable. The controversy, as always, is the precise definition of the word "valuable"....
Absent salary considerations, Would Milwaukee trade Braun even up for Kemp? I surmise they would in a in a New York nano-second.....would LA make the same trade? Hardly.
Case closed. Your National League MVP: Mr. Matt Kemp.