Two items of note in Friday’s Washington Post. Jennifer
Rubin wrote Herman Cain’s
obituary, announcing the Republican presidential candidate’s
“political demise.”
Yet the paper also published an ABC News/Washington
Post poll of actual Republican voters. It found Cain at 23
percent, up seven points from October and in a virtual tie with
Mitt Romney. A majority of respondents were not greatly concerned
by the sexual harassment allegations against Cain, while only 39
percent disagreed.
Rumors of Cain’s political death may have been greatly
exaggerated. Why hasn’t the steady drumbeat of criticism — and the
slow drip of scandal-related news — taken its toll?
The frequently analogies to Clarence Thomas are inapt, but here
is one difference that favors Cain: there is no Anita Hill. Even as
the number of accusers grows, there are no names. The details are
mostly under lock and key, protected by nondisclosure clauses in
the settlement agreements. The specifics that have leaked out are
attributed to anonymous sources, or have had to be corrected, or
have involved Cain making women feel uncomfortable by asking them
to put lemon in his tea.
At some point, the women’s names and possibly the whole story
could well come out. Until then, the only identifiable victim is
Cain. And while the Cain camp has generally not handled the
controversy very well, they have made effective use of their victim
status.
Conservative Republicans like Cain and want to believe him. They
certainly believe the liberal media, and even elites in their own
party, disdain conservatives and especially revile black
conservatives.
While many of Rick Perry’s supporters headed for the hills when
his campaign ran into trouble, Cain’s base will stick by him unless
there is evidence to contradict his denials. Conservatives already
showed a willingness to give Cain the benefit of the doubt when he
appeared to make pro-choice arguments in a television
interview.
Since the details remain murky, much of the criticism has
focused on Cain’s inconsistent responses in media interviews. But
many primary voters are more interested in the truth or falsity of
the accusations than they are about how well his campaign team is
able to spin them.
Perhaps Cain’s likeability will only take him so far and the
poll numbers will change. New details could emerge that clarify and
corroborate the women’s stories. Primary voters could get tired of
hearing about this. Up to this point, conservatives sharing this
fatigue have generally blamed the media. But they could eventually
start taking it out on Cain.
Until there is real proof that any of this is happening,
however, repeated establishment conservative predictions of Cain’s
demise will widely be seen as the wishful thinking they mostly are.
These pundits hope Republicans sour on Cain because the pundits
themselves are now convinced the conservative businessman cannot
beat Barack Obama.
Indeed, the general election would be a whole new ballgame.
Reaching beyond the GOP primary electorate, Cain would not be able
to count on the reservoir of goodwill that predisposes
conservatives to give him the benefit of the doubt on sexual
harassment, his tax plan, abortion, foreign policy, the TARP
bailout, and a host of other issues.
Swing voters who are vaguely paying attention now will only be
aware that Cain has been accused of inappropriate conduct and will
have no strong biases toward believing the charges are untrue.
Meanwhile, the flaws in his campaign operation that at the moment
seem like Beltway minutiae could be mercilessly exposed in a
confrontation with the president’s $1 billion reelection
effort.
The problems that experts predicted for Sarah Palin and
Christine O’Donnell failed to materialize among Republican voters,
only to appear in full force during the fall campaign. The attacks
on Palin and O’Donnell just seemed to improve their standing among
rank-and-file conservatives.
So it may be with Cain. Professional conservatives, worried
about disaster next year, could try to tear him down, only to
diminish their own authenticity in the eyes of the conservative
grassroots. Cain, whose underfunded campaign has already received a
monetary jolt since the scrutiny began, may bond even more with Tea
Party activists.
Beltway conservatives who fear a looming train wreck may have no
choice but to avert their gaze. Unless the other shoe drops soon,
Republicans in Iowa and Florida will have more to say about Cain’s
future than Republicans who make it onto the pages of the
Washington Post.
