AT CRUNCH TIME, as when we are attacked on our own territory,
our reaction is to draw our terrible swift and righteous sword, not
send out election monitors and community organizers. The disruption
of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, harboring al Qaeda, met very
little criticism. The campaign was efficient, brutal, and short.
Though unable to destroy al Qaeda, we dispersed the Taliban and
provided a shield behind which various Pashtun clan leaders could
quarrel about what to do next. France, which had experienced
terrorist attacks from Islamic or Arab movements every few years
since the 1950s, could not disapprove of our policy in principle.
President Jacques Chirac’s foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin,
expressed his country’s support, as did most other leading foreign
policy leaders in the world.
But the French government disapproved of our application of the
Bush administration’s attack on Iraq. There was no casus belli, Villepin argued, as there had been
during the Kuwait affair a decade earlier. Saddam was dangerous,
and the way to guard against him was to sustain the same
Euro-U.S.-Arab alliance successfully mobilized in 1990, in effect
containing him.
The Bush policy makers countered there was a “break-out” danger,
as there was evidence that the Iraqi Baathists either had or were
actively developing weapons of mass destruction and were in a de
facto alliance with the Islamist movement, in the short term
transcending deep doctrinal differences.
The argument for the legitimacy of this attack was somewhat
obfuscated by the quarrels between the administration and important
desks within the national security agencies—notably the Central
Intelligence Agency—regarding the exact nature of the threat to us
and our allies, the links of the Baath regime of Saddam Hussein to
al Qaeda, the state of its weapons development programs, the
contacts of these to other regimes (or factions within them),
including those in power in such places as Pakistan, North Korea,
and possibly still more, and other issues of what the security
specialists call “threat assessments.”
Whatever one makes of these debates and their effects on our
clarity of purpose, the important question ends up as one of
political judgment. What the French disapproved of was our fervor
at going after the tyrants of the Arab world. Perhaps the idea was
not that different from what their ancestors had done in the 1790s,
but that was two centuries ago. There may have been profoundly
corrupt reasons for this disapproval. Investigative reporters
demonstrated that Saddam was using the “oil-for-food” program to
cheat the arms embargo on his regime and buy the good will, or at
least the forbearance, of international leaders. But even apart
from this, the French did not agree that our overarching plan was
sound. Not only were we overextending our human and economic
resources, they said, the Arabs would never buy into our
declarations of political altruism.
Our plan was frankly Wilsonian: the only way to end the Islamist
threat and, at the same time, bring about real political reform in
the lands of Arab-Islam is to promote—if necessary,
impose—democracy. With some important exceptions in the political
class and among opinion makers, the French simply did not buy this.
They viewed reform in Arab countries as unrealistic except in the
very long term. Their diplomacy emphasized the recognition of
states, whatever their nature, and rejected contacts with and
encouragement of opposition movements, except when it clearly
suited them—a significant exception, but never publicly
acknowledged.
IT IS TOO early to say whether our revolutionary foreign policy
in the end will prove to have been the more prudent and decent and
effective in the lands where our bayonets and armored vehicles have
sought to promote it. But the question does bring us back to the
Libyan intervention, in which the roles were almost mirrored. This
time we were slow on the uptake, but we agreed to give full
diplomatic and political support to the adventure, and, crucially,
to provide supplies and munitions.
The Obama administration had sound reasons for taking a back
seat in the NATO expedition. If we are in a long war for the
promotion of liberal democracy, why not implicate other liberal
democratic states in the enterprise? Moreover, it is of little
comfort to a president reading daily casualty figures on two fronts
to be told by armchair military analysts that it would be “easy” to
open a third one and overthrow Gaddafi. On the contrary, he feared
still another quagmire to add to those in Iraq and Afghanistan, and
had every reason to be wary of the irrational exuberance that had
predicted Iraq would be a “cakewalk.” Even if it is reasonably
certain that our forces can defeat Arab armies in the field, what
sort of analysis is it that neglects the consequences to us of our
own battlefield victories? Since the invasion of Egypt by Napoleon
Bonaparte in the late 1790s, the Arabs never have won any
wars in the field. Nor have they lost any at the peace
conferences, either.
Contrariwise, going into Libya seemed the logical continuation
of our campaign for democracy in the Arab world, the ultimate
rationale for our efforts. Libya, in a sense, was
proof-by-continuation. In the same way, small victories were
cheered in the immediate aftermath of the Iraq invasion: the “cedar
revolution” in Lebanon, and the stated renunciation, by Moammar
Gaddafi, of his nuclear program. Lebanon was a short-lived success.
If we were so serious about spreading democracy in the Middle East,
why were we not there when the country was taken hostage by
Hezbollah, an Iranian-sponsored terrorist army, following the
assassination of its liberal democratic leader by Syrian-Hezbollah
terrorists?
After 10 years of efforts and no-follow-throughs, going into
Libya might have elicited some skepticism, and indeed it did, not
only from Democrats who, like the president, had opposed the
original Bush policies, but Republicans and conservatives who not
only wanted to know what was in this for us but who had grown wary
of just what sorts of changes we really were sponsoring.
Someone will have to explain why we place democracy ahead of
freedom in our global-improvement schemes. Democracy without
liberty, after all, does not necessarily produce free societies.
But societies based on concepts and cultural practices premised on
freedom evolve in democratic directions.
IT IS NOT at all clear why the French and the British, two old
nations whose historical experiences demonstrate this axiom, were
so anxious to raise the democratic banner in a clannish, tribal
country like Libya, one moreover whose people have been browbeaten
by 40 years of fascistic rule that cut them off from the habits and
practices of free peoples. It is disappointing that, with our own
recent and current experience of bringing democracy to Arab
societies, we did not, evidently, raise any alarms on this
score.
Nor does it seem to have occurred to either our own or our
French allies’ specialists in the region that there is an
indigenous population in Libya whose very name, Imazight, means “free men.” Known since Roman times
as Berbers, they of course vary, like most minorities, in their
relationship to the central regimes. Gaddafi disliked the
Berbers—one of his many dislikes—and it was neither surprising
nor unexpected that they gave him no support, when not taking part
actively in the insurrection, during the recent civil war. On the
contrary, their fighters held the far west while the Benghazi-based
Transitional Council’s troops were losing ground to the regime’s
forces, until the NATO aircraft (and in particular French assault
helicopters) saved them. It was a Berber offensive out of the town
of Nafusa, near the Tunisian border, that turned the tide and led
to the September march on Tripoli.
Although Gaddafi called the Imazight Israeli and U.S. agents (a
capital crime) and severely repressed the use of their language (as
did the other North African states), and although they represent at
least 10 percent of the Libyan population, the first reaction of
the Transitional Council was to snub them, placing near the top of
its proposed new constitution—the same that American democracists
are hailing as proof that our Wilsonian crusade is
unstoppable—that the only language in Libya is Arabic.
Libya is distant and strange, but it is not the other side of
the moon. Yet we use what we know selectively—we prefer to make
use of information when it comforts, or can be interpreted to
comfort, our professed goals. It is quite possible that there is
not a single democrat on the Libyan National Transitional Council.
It may well be that the insurgency’s best troops are trained
Islamists, veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq. It may be that what we
ought to do is split up the country, create a pro-West, pro-Israel
Berber state which, not unlike the Kurds in the distant Arab east,
will serve as an aircraft carrier of freedom. But we must know what
we really want in Libya and what our role should be.