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At Large
The Lion Still Roars at Night
Little has changed in South Africa since Nelson Mandela’s historic election — and political turmoil is growing.
It is quite easy from the upper floors of one of Johannesburg’s high risers to see the tin-sided shacks of the not-so-distant black township. That vista of stark socio-economic difference displays vividly the amazing lack of change in the last 17 years since the election of Nelson Mandela and the creation of the new Republic of South Africa.
The nation that has the African continent’s “most developed corporate and industrial base” — as the Financial Times has termed it — still struggles to bring its black and colored population into the mainstream of economic development. To begin with, about 65 percent of the public school students drop out of the educational system each year. With a million children registered, that means 650,000 leave annually before they are 15 years old without any certificate of achievement.
This statistic is both an indication of the scope of South Africa’s problem of inequality and at the same time an explanation for it. Nonetheless, this is not the only root of the inability of such an abundantly endowed country to provide a fair and encouraging environment in which the entire population can develop.
The disparity of advantage that existed less than two decades ago among the races — white, black, colored and Asian — could not be overcome simply by good will or government fiat. The original expectation was for the indigenous black and colored community to be able swiftly to exploit the newly created “even playing field.” That was just unrealistic.
One of the reasons, among many, for the lack of a major employment shift was that the expected downsizing of the white population through emigration because they were unwilling to live in a black majority-governed country just did not occur in large numbers. While many did leave, there was also a rise in immigration from poorer countries of Europe. The administrative and supervisory jobs in industry previously exclusive to whites simply did not open up in the amount that was expected by the newly enfranchised black community.
Although there was a period of serious economic growth, especially related to tourism, there was no hugely stimulating boom to allow for the non-whites, now better educated and socially attuned, to attain management positions appropriate in number even near the demographic breakdown of this 50.9 million person country. With 79.5 percent of the population black, the political pressure is on.
Unskilled jobs still exist, of course, but they did not increase as the leadership had hoped and expected so as to satisfy both political desires and economic needs. The imbalance in respect to non-whites with degrees in management and science has not been brought into equilibrium, even taking into consideration the hoped-for considerable socio-economic change in the course of only one generation.
The result has been a growth of political activism that views increased government involvement in all aspects of life, and a strong movement toward nationalization, as the only answer to this dynamic nation’s perceived inequities. The focus is on transferring corporate ownership of the mining industry to the South African government. From the Left’s point of view, this action would allow for a more equitable division of profits and quicker rearrangement of the racial alignment of industry and commerce. It’s Marxism, but no one calls it that.
The black and colored elite have thrived in the well-managed South African market economy. However, an unemployment rate of approximately 29 percent and 24 percent for the black and colored workers, respectively, has produced a wide cry in the “settlements” for the nationalization of the mining companies and expropriation of agricultural property. When 50 percent of the black/colored demographic lives below the government standardized poverty line, it is hardly surprising that the political future of the nation shows signs of a radical drift of the still disadvantaged to the volatile left.
The traditional leadership of the dominant political party, African National Congress (ANC), downplays as “emotional and irrational” the talk about nationalization. But then this older group has benefited well in the last nearly two decades from the historic political economy and its inheritance thereof. Next year will contain the potential for a serious turning point in leadership of the ANC and thus the direction of South Africa.
The best of the worst-case scenarios of corporate planners is any legislation of major- appearing but substantially modest actions of increased government ownership of industry and agriculture. The same strategic planners base their forecast on the rather optimistic perception that the dominant black leadership has done quite well under the “old system” and would be unwilling to see it radically change. As one major white executive put it: “Frankly they (black leaders) can’t afford the change anymore than we can.” The question remains, if that is the case, whether the aging black leadership will be allowed to remain in its power positions by its own younger party structure?
To extol Pretoria’s march toward social change has become a given in the last 17 years. Nonetheless, such moral judgments should not blind one’s assessment of political economic realities. South Africa is under severe stress.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (56) | Leave a comment
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Capetown Candor| 10.28.11 @ 7:32AM
South Africa will fail. It is inevitable.
You fail to cite the number of whites of European ancestry (people from families who lived already 140 - 200 years) in South Africa.
They have left. They are leaving. Those that remain weigh the isssues of leaving -- all the time.
Their ongoing departures -- this is the telling statistic when examing "What does the future hold for South Africa?"
This has nothing to do with bias or what all seems to fall under the huge offense industry umbrella called racism. It has everything to do with the core ethics and behaviors that any people or land must have as individuals and as the collective to overcome and prosper.
As the whites continue to depart in a steady flow, the failure and failed end state of South Africa will be sure.
Doctor Right| 10.28.11 @ 12:44PM
100% correct.
Lizard King| 10.28.11 @ 2:07PM
Of course this is what the Obamas of the world envision as redistributive justice. Deconstruct the entire anglo-european civilized culture so all can live in an egalitarian, HELL HOLE utopia. WWiii, here we come!
Rob Schapiro| 10.28.11 @ 7:45AM
The Afrikaners systematically looted the wealth of South Africa to benefit their own people.
The black government is picking at the bones of what remains to benefit themselves. Corruption has reached a level only dreamed of by the Afrikaners.
The demographics remain very bad for future economic development. An unproductive, unionized workforce puffed up with their rights. Zimbabwe is to the North but getting closer all the time.
Harry the Horrible| 10.28.11 @ 11:10AM
Actually, I would say the South Africans built and cultivated the wealth and, yes, kept most it for themselves.
That has stopped since they lost control of South Africa. The looters are in charge now, and soon the carcass of a great nation will be picked clean.
Doctor Right| 10.28.11 @ 12:46PM
"The Afrikaners systematically looted the wealth of South Africa to benefit their own people."
WRONG.
The Afrikaners BUILT the country and CREATED the wealth.
And as more of them leave, South Africa will become more and more like Zimbabwe.
loulou| 10.28.11 @ 3:23PM
The Afrikaners built SA into a civilized, world class country. I have a friend who left SA for the US leaving behind most of his wealth. He saw the writing on the wall.
When Mandela dies who will be president? Winnie the Necklacer?
Skippy| 10.28.11 @ 4:08PM
So the Afrikaners picked up all the mines, mountains and minerals and took them to their vacation palaces on the Riviera?
Really?
Or did the communist revolutionaries(like Mandela)systematically corrupt and loot what the whites built?
Rob Schapiro| 10.28.11 @ 6:38PM
Sorry, that's wrong. I accept the Afrikaners spread with enormous courage across the hostile land and developed a strong farming base but the mineral resources and subsequent wealth of South Africa was developed by the English speaking population. Including the Jews.
Michael Tomlinson| 10.28.11 @ 8:05AM
Actually things are much worse in South Africa since and because of Nelson Mandella. It is truly tragic that necessary reforms were used by Marxist trained thugs to enrich themselves and terrorize their own people.
POST American| 10.28.11 @ 8:23AM
----And while the ordinary Boer middle class
or working man is a virtual non-entity in
the 'new' South Africa ---we learn that the
banking, mining and corporate interests
that have been plundering the land for over
a century, now have the greatest sweetheart deals
in their history.
-------Hehehehehe---------
God| 10.28.11 @ 8:46AM
Since you are on the subject of bores...........
Mike Hawk| 10.28.11 @ 8:47AM
It's the Chloroform.
Dixie Pixie| 10.28.11 @ 12:29PM
The funny thing is Post American is actuality getting better,
The above post was almost a clear, coherent sentence on a single focused topic.
This is a definite improvement from jumping wildly from outlandish conspiracy theory to an unrelated conspiracy almost in the next word.
Usually P..A.. is totally incoherent (and easily dismissible) as he links wildly incompatible topics and conspiracies together in a single sentence and often with the discredited theory of eugenics.
So if he keeps improving, one day he will reach the coherent level of “Clint” or “Jack in Wi”.
Quartermaster| 10.28.11 @ 1:40PM
My observation: the latter two you list are able to put together coherent arguments while your type simply smears in response. I have as yet to see anyone of your camp actually engage them, or even try. Your attempts at putting them down place you firmly in the moonbat camp.
Skippy| 10.28.11 @ 4:10PM
How does one engage a racist Jew-hater?
The way we did in WW2 works for me.
Dixie Pixie| 10.29.11 @ 5:28PM
My,My,My Mr Quartermaster, You seem to have come down with a classic case of the partisan vapors.
Don't you know this is the era of post-partisan political quietude.
You need to make yourself a mint julep, come out to the veranda, lay down on the hammock, put a cold compress to the forehead and think of moonlight and magnolias until the vapors go away.
If you had been following my work (such as my post in the “Welcome Back Scooter” article), you would see I am quite willing to engage without rancor or insults.
I was simply trying to encourage Post American to post coherent entries using the humor of spurious comparison.
It is a pity you could not follow the joke.
Try harder next time.
Mike Hawk| 10.28.11 @ 4:58PM
He has semi-lucid periods between full moons.
Dan Mathewson| 10.29.11 @ 5:11PM
How do you know that Post American is a man?
JA| 10.28.11 @ 8:43AM
Within 10 years S.Africa will turn into a Zimbabwe. Black Africans, like Arabs, have a tribal culture and whichever tribe takes over - via elections or violence - will begin the mass slaughter or economic discrimination of members of the other tribes.
The whites, of course, will be the first victims; but that will just be the beginning.
Tribal cultures and representative democracy are mutually exclusive, for a true democracy requires that one subordinate their tribal allegiance to that of a nation.
Tribal cultures simple do not do this.
This is why the Arabs, Afhgans and black African nations have been, are and will be economically backward.
It is NOT a color or racial thing; it is a cultural thing.
It is simply foolish to think that a form of govt - inspired by and encouraged by the PROTESTANT REFORMATION , can simple be exported to other cultures.
It cannot.
dc| 10.28.11 @ 3:10PM
JA, you beat me to the punch...one of the first things I learned about South Africa is that there's no such thing as "the blacks." There are Xhosa (Mandela's tribe), Zulu, and Bantu. And they effing hate each other at least as much as they hate the whites (who themselves, are English, Boer, French Huguenot, etc.--just look at the last names of the guys on the South African national rugby team).
Whichever tribe is in power will enrich itself at the expense of the others, period. If they ruin the country in the process, what do they care? Most every aspect of modernity in S. Africa was built by the "whites," and certainly the empowered tribe of the moment will take advantage of it, but they have little real, long-term stake in keeping things up--the only stake they have is in keeping it from the other tribes. Thus the inevitable decline into Zimbabwe.
no name| 10.28.11 @ 9:32AM
The only country in all of Africa, where one could sleep at night w/o the fear of being robbed, killed and eaten, necklaced, or worse. And the doo gooders had to change that, it made the rest of africa look bad. Yes kill off the one gem in all of Africa, and what do we have now? Well CRY BABY CRY!. Too bad the BASTARDS that started all the turmoil and discontent don't have to live there. If there was a way to find out who had a hand in the destruction of the only place in Africa that had civilization, and round them up and force them to live there with their families, it should be done!
Harry the Horrible| 10.28.11 @ 11:12AM
Don't worry. China has its eye on Africa.
The Africans think us whites were bad? Wait until they meet the "new boss." He definitely won't be "same as the old boss."
Timothey L. Pennell| 10.28.11 @ 9:45AM
Who is this George Wittman guy? I know we don't get a lot of news out of South Africa, but that's because the LEFTIST MEDIA refuses to report it.
South Africa is one of the most DANGEROUS places on the Planet. Crime. Murders. Poverty.
It resembles that Television Show: Earth after People. The Jungle is starting to reclaim what used to be the JEWEL of that God forsaken Continent.
The New Owners will do to South Africa, what they've done to Rhodesia. That would be Zimbabwe, these days. The BREAD BASKET of Africa. Reduced to a Giant SLUM. One big Detroit.
George Wittman? What's up with this article, of yours? And, how much of your money is invested in this Hell Hole? I'm thinking, ALL OF IT.
Paul McGrath| 10.29.11 @ 3:39PM
Thank you for breaking up your screed into paragraphs. For the first time in months, I actually read it!
Now you may want to think about abandoning the capital letter thing. It's really not necessary if you structure your sentences in a certain way.
Melvin| 10.28.11 @ 9:57AM
Yes, South Africa will probably go by the wayside, once the machetes and tire necklaces filled with gasoline come out.
The Townships have been and forever will be the festering pustule of South Africa. Tin shacks, diseases, illiteracy, HIV, and STD's that don't even have names yet, and crime are the plan of the day.
On visit to Mombasa Kenya I had a nice conversation with a nice educated fellow, who uttered the phrase, "American Blacks have no idea how good they got it."
This gentleman went to college in England and it was pleasant to me, because this man spoke the most perfect English that I have ever had the pleasure of listening to as he went into his description of the phrase that he had uttered to me.
This gentleman was very harsh in his description of Black society in Africa. His description was pretty much to what I have eluded to above. His last remark made sense to it all. "It is not the White colonialist that put Blacks Africans into the Townships and ghettos across Africa. We put ourselves there."
Stan Redmond| 10.28.11 @ 1:50PM
It is ironic that the blacks with the best opportunities and highest standard of living are the decendents of slaves and were taken out of Africa.
Bob Grant| 10.28.11 @ 10:06AM
It seems like South Africa, in a rush to redistribute wealth, property, etc. among the "natives", prematurely forced the Productive Class out of the country.
Take for instance the agriculture industry. White farmers who developed techniques for efficiently cultivating the land, passed from one generation to the next, were one of the first groups on the losing side of this redistributive madness, left the country en masse a decade ago.
Today, those same governmental officials so eager to - As Obama likes to put it - "spread the wealth around" are making attempts to entice the farmers back so their countrymen don't starve.
A hard-learned lesson for the socialist (and one could argue racist) redistributionists.
Lizard King| 10.28.11 @ 3:06PM
For certain Mr Bob Grant, it is blatant, hate filled racism at its core! Letists are incapable of recognizing the preeminence of Natural law in a material world. They will never know the fallacy of their delusional idealogy. Unfortunately as history has so convincingly illustrated, the murder, mayhem and WAR that they sow is typically stained with other peoples blood!
buckeyeman| 10.28.11 @ 10:25AM
OK, so name for me one country anywhere on the face of the earth run by blacks that isn't in the crapper...
...........
................. anyone out there?
Bob Grant| 10.28.11 @ 10:50AM
Now would be the time to turn on your best Cricket Chirping sound effect.
Sad but true.
Harry the Horrible| 10.28.11 @ 11:14AM
Barbados!
Its a wonderful place. The people are great, the food is great, the climate is great and the landscape is beautiful. They make rum, pump oil and generally seem to know what they're doing.
Stan Redmond| 10.28.11 @ 1:44PM
Carribean Islands seem to be doing pretty well for themselves.
Bruce Berger| 10.28.11 @ 9:45PM
Botswana is doing pretty well.
Petronius| 10.28.11 @ 10:45AM
After the "election" and accession of the ANC, South African Whites were dispossessed and burned out of their homes and businesses. The Spectator of London quoted Nobel Peace Prize recipient, Bishop Desmond Tutu: "They're lucky that's All that's happening to them." Those who remain cannot obtain passports and will eventually be butchered by savages. The pundits at the New York Times will love it.
Bob Grant| 10.28.11 @ 11:37AM
High unemployment, low GDP. That in and of itself is bad news.
Income inequality is as bad as it's ever been.
A slew of brand new stadiums costing hundreds of millions each (600+ mil for one stadium alone) all for the sole purpose of hosting ONE event (World Cup 2010) is a time-tested recipe for disaster. Just look at Greece and the 2004 Olympic Summer Games debacle to know where a lack of fiscal discipline can lead you.
George S| 10.28.11 @ 12:17PM
Meet the new boss... same as the old boss. Ending apartheid did not by magic make South Africa's problems disappear because apartheid was the result of socialism (lack of right to work laws, white unions and wage regulations, lack of private property ownership, centralization of power in government, etc.).
The free market brings prosperity wherever it is tried and central planning socialism brings widespread misery every time it is tried. Nothing new under the sun. The fact that SA had a white ruling class made it a cause celebre among the liberal elites here -- but SA employed almost the same policies that results in the high rate of black unemployment as over here...
..and that is Federal labor laws which force wage and benefits, working conditions and other policies which criminalize at-will employment making it cheaper to automate or ship jobs overseas and thereby preventing the under-educated unskilled from getting their first stepping-stone job. For proof, the black unemployment rate in 1900 was no higher than white unemployment (and racism was far more vicious, no?). The only things that changed since then is the Fair Labor Standards Act, the Wagner Act, and OSHA. These acts prevented the market from freely allocating resources to labor, resulting in a shortage of labor (making it more expensive) and eliminating the need for immigration as a labor source. It's one thing to restrict immigration because of fewer low skilled jobs, but what about Americans (black) already living here? Hence the start of the erosion of the black family as there were fewer low skilled entry level jobs available.
South Africa, Detroit, New York City, Oakland... the only difference there is no difference.
Quartermaster| 10.28.11 @ 1:49PM
Apartheid was not the result of socialism, although it was the result of social relations.
The Zulu and the Xhosa tried to kill each other on a regular basis (they still hate each other). Apartheid was of benefit to the Zulu as they supported the regime, but apartheid was mainly to keep tribes that hated each other apart and keep peace.
Mandela was justly imprisoned for terrorism. His PR managed to make him out a martyr, but he supported cold blooded murder and was caught with the goods. The ANC is now in charge, and teh same type of corruption we have seen in Detroit, New Orleans, and is rising in places like Atlanta, is now commonplace from Cairo to the Cape. Rhodes didn't get his railroad, but Africa got the shaft, and it was of its own making.
Yep, Barbados is the only exception. Most of the Carribean Islands run by Blacks are OK. They aren't rich, but that's no surprise. But you don't have to be rich to be decent, and that's the problem with both African and American blacks.
loulou| 10.28.11 @ 3:26PM
Remember, the Dutch were established in SA long before the tribes. They arrived there in the 1600s. The blacks migrated there later.
Shrewsbury| 10.28.11 @ 4:18PM
Mr. Wittman's socioeconomic analysis is as insufficient as his astonishing arithmetic. "To begin with, about 65 percent of the public school students drop out of the educational system each year. With a million children registered, that means 650,000 leave annually...." Dude, seriously? And really, how do you get to be an old guy and still believe that South African tribesmen are capable of being turned into captains of industry by any policy whatever?
Holmwood| 10.28.11 @ 6:32PM
This is pretty sad reading. Yes, in part because South Africa has terrible problems, but the assertion that 65% of students drop out each year? That is a crazy assertion.
What do you mean? Do you perhaps mean nearly two thirds of students end up dropping out (if so; when? A good grade 8 education isn't that bad, see http://maggiesfarm.anotherdotc.....-1895.html )
My Dad emigrated from South Africa because it had a poor future, whether under the whites or the blacks.
I have no doubt that blacks in South Africa are making a mess of things, but articles such as this are at best a joke.
This article tells us exactly nothing other than citing a useless and clearly wrong statistic.
e track from saq| 10.28.11 @ 6:43PM
Time to get smart.
The black condition,which we all woefully morn,is mathematically based.
And of course more self evident than provable.
The godless forgot one thing in their boundless pride and arrogant self esteem,in their jaundice
judgement of what is right and what is wrong,they
missed what is "correct".
Richard Baker| 10.28.11 @ 8:02PM
Africa, a tribal continent organized into fictitious "countries" by the Imperialist powers in the 19th Century. When I look at black run countries/cities, I have to wonder if, as a people, whether they are capable of Western civilized behavior or government or any version of civilized behavior no matter the source. At age 59, that question has always had me head-scratching in amazement at the decadence, depravity, and murderous behavior of this slice of humanity and the legions of people who try to excuse/rationalize it.
vtwin| 10.28.11 @ 10:38PM
Seen that movie?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_9
POST American| 10.28.11 @ 10:56PM
---------------------FINAL WORD-----------------------
----------------'SWEETHEART DEAL'-----------------
XXXOOXOXXOOXOXX
----Hehehehehehehhehehe----
POST American| 10.29.11 @ 3:12AM
-------------------KEY ADDENDUM--------------------
"Important to remember, Mandela was
put in prison NOT because he was a rebel,
or even because he was a 'CALM--you-nist'.
-----He WAS put away because he was
blowing up school buses filled with children."
-ALAN WATT
( fearless coverage of the CON)
Sort of clarifies things-----------doesn't it.
Dick Nome| 10.30.11 @ 10:13AM
A coherent post. Congratulations. All too true. His wife Minnie Mandela was in to the horrific practice of 'necklacing".
Dick Nome| 10.30.11 @ 10:14AM
Winnie, not Minnie. WTF, she was terrorist.
henry| 10.29.11 @ 7:40AM
I live in South Africa. In 1970 a Rand was worth 5 Swiss Francs and 4 Dollars. Unemployment for all population groups was nil. Education although regulated was free. Health although segregated was free.
Last week I attended a CME lecture, (I’m a doctor) where the following statistics were revealed:
South Africa leads the world in the incidence of AIDS and tuberculosis. We also lead the world in murders, death from automobile accidents, murders of wives and children by husbands and baby rape. Our medical standards have dropped so catastrophically that there is more than two billion Rands’ worth of litigation against the public Health services in the pipeline.
A report released two months ago points out that two percent of our children are born into a nuclear family. Forty percent are raised by women. The rest are left to their own devices. Fifty percent of teenagers in this country are functionally illiterate and innumerate.
Both Nelson Mandela and Robert Mugabe were imprisoned by their white rulers, and emerged from prison with degrees, earned from studying in prison. Our current president learned to read and write as an adult while imprisoned on Robben Island.
When Mandela was President he went to Rwanda and was shocked when he saw what African prisons look like. We don’t have the death penalty but man on man gang rape is common in our jails, and the incidence of AIDS very high.
So, folks, what’s the prognosis for Africa?
Paul McGrath| 10.29.11 @ 4:09PM
I am so sorry. Truly. Your country is doomed.
And they're trying to destroy the family here in the U. S. as well.
RCV| 10.29.11 @ 4:33PM
Sure, white racism in America is a thing of the past. Just read the posts above.
Dick Nome| 10.30.11 @ 9:56AM
Black racism is the bigoted preference of the day. White racism is pretty much passe.
POST American| 10.30.11 @ 10:24AM
----Tavistock CON-trolled dialectic RACE OP------
------------------------ALERT!----------------------------
DON'T get lost in the manipulated, capstone
'race issue' number.
While we're sure apartheid was miserable
for blacks, and also sure that the genuine,
hardworking whites of the region are being
mightily given the shaft at this point in
history -------ONE AND ALL ---keep eyes,
lights and unflinching attention on the
maneuverings and machinations of the
Globalists.
Just as they brought in indentured servitude,
and then African slavery to get things moving
in America
Just as they destroyed genuine British culture
centuries ago with enclosure, the poor laws
and market dumping and forced scarcity
Just as they destroyed 'Old' China with a
full century of opium addiction ---multiple
conflicts --then London sourced
'CALM--you--nism' ---and unutterably horrifying EUGENICS
SO they're at work disposing of the 'N-CON--V
--knee--ant'Boers after that group basically
established and built SA into being the
modern African state it is --er ---was.
----------LIKEWISE with the we the IN--CON--V
--knee--ant Americans and, need we add,
Japanese.
Pulling these Globalists from power and bringing
them to an 'enhanced' NUREMBURG meets
HUAC final, definitive, justice is something
that, indeed, the entire world could agree on.
Diane L Asp| 10.31.11 @ 1:31AM
I'm sorry but I can't make sense of the first sentence of the second to last paragraph. Is there something missing or am I just dense?
Richard Baker| 10.31.11 @ 7:36AM
RCV:
Is it racist (there's a word that has sure lost any meaning or sting) to notice that blacks around the world are generally an absolute human disaster? Of course, you probably mean that they must be the apex of human development. My comments are strictly from observation and paying attention to the state of their community around the globe and wondering WHY.