-
It’s About the Legacy, Not the House
April 16, 2013 | 43 comments
-
Understanding the Left’s Demands on What Others Own
March 13, 2013 | 205 comments
-
Football, Fairness, and Hayek
February 1, 2013 | 18 comments
-
An Elite That Still Reject Him
December 24, 2012 | 76 comments
-
Why Rice?
December 11, 2012 | 31 comments
The Obama Watch
No Primary Challenge to Obama
The talk may grow louder, but any challenge would be suicidal in its own right.
Expect the talk of a primary challenge to Obama only to get louder. Pundits salivate at the prospect of an unusual twist, turning the foregone conclusion of Obama’s nomination into a story. The problem is: A challenge won’t happen.
Special elections are always overlooked before, and then over-analyzed after. However, even with those caveats, three recent ones were big — and bad — news for Democrats.
Democrats had every right to expect winning at least two of the three — two Congressional races and the West Virginia gubernatorial — and possibly winning them all. Instead they lost two and came dangerously close to losing all three.
In NV-2 looked competitive on paper — they had a good candidate and a good track record of late in the state. In NY-09, they had a 3-1 party enrollment advantage. But in the end, they lost the first 36% to 58% and they lost the second 46% to 54%.
Only in Democrat-dominated West Virginia did they win, but just barely. The Republican fell less than 8,000 votes short of winning and held the Democrat to less than 50% of the vote.
The reason these races are of such interest is because the biggest name in them, wasn’t on the ballot. And such results, in places Democrats should have done better this year, only raise questions about next year when Obama’s name will be on the ballot. Or if it might not be.
It didn’t take these races to start the talk that Obama could be “primaried.” A late August CNN/ORC International poll (released 8/29) started the rumor ripple by reporting that 27% of Democrats had responded the party should nominate someone other than Obama.
Even a liberal press can’t resist a story, especially one where none existed before. Suddenly having a contested nomination on the Democratic side is irresistible fodder.
The problem around such speculation is that there is virtually no chance it happens. To understand why, look back at the last time a serious primary challenge to an incumbent president occurred.
In 1980, Kennedy challenged Carter. Carter won the nomination, but lost in a landslide to Reagan. In many Democratic circles, the damage had already been done to Carter and as a result, damage was done to Kennedy as well.
That challenge illustrates many lessons.
First, primary challengers to incumbent presidents don’t win. That’s why primary challenges rarely happen. Not only didn’t Kennedy win in 1980, McCarthy didn’t in 1968, and Roosevelt didn’t in 1912. Admittedly, Reagan came close against Ford in 1976, but even Reagan didn’t disprove the rule.
The reason is that the two major parties have too much invested in an incumbent president. Incumbents rarely lose — only Bush, Carter, Ford, Hoover, and Taft in the last century. To have such an advantage in a run for the nation’s highest office is hard to concede.
And the last people to concede it and renounce their party’s president are the party faithful who vote in the primaries. However, such is not the case with the electorate at large. So those incumbents who are challenged seriously, often don’t win in November — Taft in 1912, Ford in 1976, and Carter in 1980.
Inevitably the blame for such defeats is often given to the primary challenger. They are seen as having weakened the incumbent — providing lines of attack to the other party, diverting scarce party contributions, and splitting the party when it needed unity more than ever.
About the Author
J.T. Young served in the Department of Treasury and the Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004 and as a Congressional staff member from 1987 to 2000.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (34) | Leave a comment
More Articles by J.T. Young
More Articles From The Obama Watch
http://spectator.org/archives/2011/10/11/no-primary-challenge-to-obama
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
H/T to National Review Online
ADVERTISEMENT
Cosmo| 10.11.11 @ 6:56AM
But wouldn't it be fun to see Donald Trump enter the primaries as a Democrat ? The debates would be spectacular entertainment.
Mimi| 10.11.11 @ 7:32AM
This time things are different ! It would be highly irresponsible for the Democrats to not challenge this failed President....the people are suffering...way too much...the country cannot endure 4 more years of this. If they FAIL to ACT and at least make an attempt to have him resign...If their reluctance to do RIGHT by the COUNTRY...leaves it up to the voters to do the JOB....They would be forever held in contempt and considered having failed their Nation , in their hour of greatest need.....Whoa to be ever elected again.....It is one of those unique Historical times we are living through....the wise among the Dems better wake-up soon!!! 2012 will be their TEST!!!
Dixie Pixie| 10.11.11 @ 3:35PM
Calm down Mimi.
Obama will be the Democratic Party candidate.
See my below post.
The good news is a cartoon rabbit (Kevin 2012) could beat Obama.
http://www.gocomics.com/pricklycity/2011/10/08
The bad news is the only way for the Democrats to win is for the Republican Leadership to throw the election to Obama.
They are certainly capable of doing just that.
Why else would they be pushing Mittens Romney to be the nominee by acclamation.
Intelligent Design| 10.11.11 @ 7:37AM
I guess this means Zero Obama is the best the Demo-Socialists have to offer. :)-
Timothy L. Pennell| 10.11.11 @ 7:41AM
"Democrat-dominated West Virginia"?
They are trying to DESTROY the Coal Industry. Do you people understand the words coming outta my keyboard? Or, are all of ya, just a buncha "Good ole boys, from the Hills and the Hollers", dumber than dirt, and married to your Cousin?
They (DEMOCRATS) are trying to KILL your jobs.
Anyway.
Nobody is gonna Primary President Mamalookaboobaday. He's BLACK. They NEED the 95% of the STUPID PEOPLE, (the people who vote for people, by the Colour of their skin, and, to Hell with their Character) He could Crap on the stage, and EAT IT, and they would all marvel at his choice of Forks.
60 straight years in the GHETTO, surrounded by Drug Dealers, and Street Gangs. 60 Years of having to send their kids to FAILING SCHOOLS. No jobs. Black Unemployment at 17% (the REAL number is much Higher, I promise you) Black Youth Unemployment is at 46%.
No problem. I'm votin for Barack. I want some a that Free Money from Barack's stash."
So, there isn't gonna be any "Primarying" of the Black Guy. They're stuck with one another.
That's how PARASITIC Relationships are.
Matthew Quigley| 10.11.11 @ 9:47AM
Tim, when you're right you're right...and you hit the nail square on the head.
Drunken Sailor| 10.11.11 @ 10:23AM
Tim, Your dead on but you have to remember. West Virginia is coal country. Coal country is usually Union country, thus they vote almost lock step Democrat. It's sad but true, they will vote Democrat even and most likely up to the point the Democrats place them on the unemployment line.
davelnaf| 10.11.11 @ 8:11AM
The author makes good points. But are the dems really prepared to crash and burn next year so that they can theoretically keep the flame lit for their post-Obama era? In all likelihood they are toast for a generation, unless, that is, Republicans start nominating duds again and hand them a gift they don’t deserve after facilitating the nation-wrecker-in-chief. The dems could have played along with Obama and not opened up the entitlement spigot full blast. They chose to go down this road and they will pay for it if Obama is on ticket next year. So, in a lot of ways they have nothing to lose but the political Siberia Obama is sending them all to.
Kenny| 10.11.11 @ 8:13AM
Come on.
With respect to BO, we all know the Democrats are held hostage by the monster their created -- the ever grieving & sullen black vote.
Dem party leaders could not ask, let alone demand, BO to step down without out ripping their odd coalition apart.
SpiralArchitect| 10.11.11 @ 1:16PM
HA!
You honestly think Zero would even consider such a step... to not run again? Incredible anyone would even suggest such nonsense.
sclemens| 10.11.11 @ 8:35AM
I have always though Obama to be too pathalogically narcissistic to withdraw from the race. Lately, I am not sure.
Obama has always surrounded himself with like-minded people who were far too politically correct to disagree with a b l a c k. Criticism for Obama is now getting through to him and he is experiencing accountability for the first time in his cloistered life. He hates it.
He is a thin-skinned cry baby. Look for him to pick up his sippy cup and go home.
Drunken Sailor| 10.11.11 @ 10:26AM
You may be on to something Sclemens. 3 seperate papers ran articles yesterday how his he isolating himself in office. Only speaking regularly to David Axelrod and Valerie Jarret. He is showing the signs of depression, pulling into his shell like a turtle. Lets hope he closes his shell up and we can put him on a fence post where he can do no more harm.
Fred| 10.11.11 @ 8:39AM
Kenny's absolutely right. No Democrat is going to risk alienating the party's most loyal and consistent voting block. Their career would be over instantly.
Anthony| 10.11.11 @ 9:08AM
The Ds will not primary the first black leftist president. Afterall, he's the one they were waiting for.
Despite his being a dismal failure, that does not mean leftists are ready to jetison Obozo, because like Obozo, they're a stubborn lot.
No, look for a more subtle approach here. I predict Hillary will join Obozo on the ticket in 2012, and the human gaffe machine, Biteme, will be sent packing. Recent comments of Biteme's that actually sound rational lead me to this conclusion.
Hillary will be promised the moon if she can help deliver a second term for Obozo, including having Obozo segue out of the presidency with some phony excuse, say U.N. General Secretary, to help establish one world order. But in the mean time, the presidency will be Hillary's. Add to this the usual voter fraud to insure a D victory and Obozo might have a chance here.
It's all the Ds and the Muslim Marxist have, other than pulling a Hugo Chavez.
Dixie Pixie| 10.11.11 @ 9:08AM
A primary challenge to Obama is rapidly becoming a moot point.
The first filing deadlines are weeks away.
After they pass it will be impossible for a late entry challenger to gain enough delegates to unseat Obama at the convention.
Besides where did you think all those Trillions of dollars looted from the taxpayers went.
Of course they went to the members of the Democrat Party and their support groups.
Obama has bought and payed for the loyal support of the Democrat Party with taxpayer money.
That is why he has a +85% approval rating from the Democrats.
Nobody in the Democratic Party will kill their income source by challenging Obama.
Louis Jenkins| 10.11.11 @ 9:25AM
The Liberals will run Obama. Let's not kid ourselves, he will perform better than the bundits predict. The coalition is there, and they're a lot stronger than we know.
Jeff R| 10.11.11 @ 9:31AM
"Its wounds were not just inflicted on the candidates or the party elite, but the party itself. The challenge by a Northeast liberal to a Southern conservative was something many southerners never forgot."
A conservative... Jimmy Carter? By '80, most southerners (I am one) didn't consider Jimmy Carter anything close to conservative. The vote he received in the south in '80 was due in large part to regional pride, a vestige of the old yellow dog Democrat voters, and African-Americans.
carlk| 10.11.11 @ 9:56AM
Obama has fanned the flames of discontent and fear, to promote the lazy to riot for handouts. He has endorsed stealing as a right, through irresponsible remarks that elicit the worst in human nature.
A demonic direction, in the wake of the upcoming elections, to fuel and sway the vastly ill-informed to vote in support, in return for the handouts.
Poverty cannot be resolved through handouts, or printing bills, or by stealing from the successful.
Education, self-reliance, and widespread privatization are the only viable tools for healing America.
The current government and political model is a complete failure, and is incompatible for the complexities of the third millennium.
Hire President Herman Cain, to recover America.
Claypoole| 10.11.11 @ 10:39AM
I wonder how many Democrats are hoping that BO is forced to resign over Fast and Furious and Solyndra before November, 2012.
Anthony| 10.11.11 @ 3:41PM
Claypoole, It would be a saving grace for the Ds if this happened. Problem is, in order for Obozo to go, Holder has to go first.
If Holder goes down, which he should, and if this was a R administration, he'd be gone, then there would be no protection for Obozo. Obozo will not resign, it's not in this egotist's genes.
Besides, if Obozo is subject to an investigation, or impeachment, which won't happen with our cowardly Rs, then watch for the black community to blow the lid on the fragile peace that still exists.
Bottom line, Obozo has insurance against F&F et al, it's called riot protection.
Holder is as far as this will go, and that's still a stretch, given our feckless, gutless R leaders.
Thing is, Nov. 2012 is going to blow things up regardless. Things are gonna get dicy!!
Claypoole| 10.11.11 @ 4:09PM
I'm hoping, Anthony, that when Fast and Furious finally blows up so that even the MSM can't ignore it anymore, a bipartisan group from Congress will go the the White House and inform BO that it's either resignation or impeachment (remember Nixon?). I know it's a foolish dream, but whatever happens, we cannot allow the integrity of our government to be blackmailed by threats of riot.
Anthony| 10.11.11 @ 7:25PM
Wish you were right, but Obozo ain't Nixon. If a bi-partisan group did approach Obozo, and what a laugh that is, imagine Reid and Pelosi signing on to that???
Anyway, if it were to happen, Obozo would put his feet up on his desk in the Oval Office, put his hands behind his head, and say to the assembled white folks, " I'm all that's standing between you and the Black Community".
"Now get your white asses out of here,oh, and please hand me my putter"!!!
John| 10.11.11 @ 11:08AM
Looking at the democratic rhetoric, the message is that a strong primary challenge would damage the party's chances. Listening to Hillary, her public comments are that she likes the fact that as Sec. State she is out of the politics. On the island of liars and truthtellers, does anyone really believe that they would tell the truth about campaign strategy? Further, when even Y. Sam, R-CA outpols Obama 47% to 42%, the only thing a strong primary challenge could do is help the party. And does anyone not believe that, with every fiber of her body, Hillary wants to be the POTUS? Finally, they just got legislation that they have wanted for about 100 years and the loss of the Senate and WH would most likely result in repeal. Think they are going to let that go without a fight? Imagine trying to differentiate Romney from Hillary in an election. The only real difference is that she only tried to get government health care passed. This may not actually happen, but given the circumstances, I believe it would be foolish to ignore the possibility.
Mike Hawk| 10.11.11 @ 12:03PM
Hildebeast just wants that big fat gummint pension so she doesn't need to be beholdin' to Der Schlickmeister. When he goes to that big BJ in the sky, she wants to be somewhere else.
Rob| 10.11.11 @ 1:29PM
TR died young. He would have gotten the nod in 1920 had he survived (and Harding as an old Taft man from Ohio) and crushed Cox or whoever the Dems put up.
SpiralArchitect| 10.11.11 @ 1:47PM
Yes, now all we get is a little turtle head poking out
james wilson| 10.11.11 @ 2:13PM
Not sure this reasoning applies to Democrat needs, not that I would advance Democrat needs. What they need is to not get slaughtered in '12, and for that all they need to improve themselves is a tomato can, or Stumpy Rodham. But all in all, the election of Romney make their lives better looking forward.
Dimitri Aleksandrovich| 10.11.11 @ 2:47PM
Obama may win by default because the Republicans may put up a candidate who is practically indistinguishable from Obama himself. However if the Democrats were looking toward the future and paying attention to the current voter unrest then they would most likely make a turn to the right on social issues while returning to their traditional populist economic policies that endeared them to American union members for most of the 20th century. By embracing free trade and the far left progressive social causes they have dealt themselves a losing hand (at least outside the liberal urban centers) for years to come.
Gary B| 10.11.11 @ 4:46PM
The Republicans won't impeach Obama. It's far too confrontational and, anyway, he's already doing huge damage to himself. The only feasible change for their ticket is the VP spot. Maybe Hillary?
This is a progressive religious war. It'd be easaier to talk a dog off a meat wagon than to talk sense with a liberal. It's a waste of time.
Romney is part of the problem and Perry is not 100% trustworthy. In addition to talking straight, which appeals to conservatives, Cain has the potential to attract blacks who know a better economy helps everyone.
One thing is sure. The Republicans are 100% capable of blowing the whole thing.
Kingofthenet| 10.11.11 @ 7:49PM
Yeah, If I was Mittens, i wouldn't want to run against him either...
POST American| 10.11.11 @ 11:02PM
Persistent buzz and murmurings that
moves are afoot to 'postpone' or 'suspend'
the 2012 election, such as it is, in order
to 'ease us through' a crucial transition.
---What transition?
USURY--EUGENICS and TREASON
fostered 'world government' ---er 'govern-ANTS'
and a full-spectrum dominance, police state grid
to uphold it all.
-----------And you're STILL NOT seeing it?----------
Well then
Keep a goin' kiddies ---Keep a goin'
----Meds for your head
------ n' bennies for your rectums
-------with FUKISHIMA fallout for one andf all!
--------------------JUST keep a goin'...
CalMark| 10.12.11 @ 3:44AM
So, an incumbent President goes down to defeat after a primary challenge because said challenge damages him irreparably.
Hooey.
Turn that around: weak President is challenged within his own party because of his perceived weakness, amply borne out in the general election.
That makes much more sense, if I do say so myself.
POST American| 10.13.11 @ 11:48PM
--------------------BOTTOM LINE----------------------
Like the Rockefeller blood linked 'regular
guy' ----Clinton -------O---BAH---MA.
'Bennies for your rectums
------------Meds for your heads'
It's the Globalist RED China TREASON
and EUGENICS OP kiddies.
---------------IT REALLY, REALLY IS-----------------