TAMPA — OK, so maybe the Republican presidential nomination
fight isn’t a private affair between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry
after all. Lobstah and four-alarm chili will have to make room for
pepperoni.
In a weekend political rodeo in Orlando that included a
straw vote on the part of nearly 3,000 conservative Florida
Republican activists, Romney underperformed. But Perry got
absolutely waxed among growing doubts that’s he’s the un-Romney so
many conservative voters are looking for.
The conservative Republicans at Presidency 5 were supposed
to be Perry’s crowd, not so much Romney’s. Romney does better with
the regular, less-red meat run of Florida Republican. But in
addition to a weak debating performance, Perry used the
sure-to-fail tactic of lecturing his base, calling those who
opposed his Texas DREAM-Act (which includes in-state tuition rates
to illegal aliens) “heartless.” It was down hill for Perry after
that.
To the surprise of political experts everywhere, the
runaway winner in Saturday’s vote was former Godfather Pizza CEO
Herman Cain at 37 percent. Perry was second at 15, with Romney
third at 14. Rick Santorum was fourth with 11 percent. National
weird uncle Ron Paul got 10 percent, Newt Gingrich 8. Jon Huntsman
punched above his weight at two percent. The amazing disappearing
Michelle Bachmann was almost off the screen at one
percent.
“This is a sign of our growing momentum and my candidacy
that cannot be ignored,” Cain said after the results were
known.
Well, yes. But it’s unclear how much Big-Mo Cain will get
from this impressive Florida win. It will surely have happy
consequences for his short-term fundraising (unhappy ones for
Perry’s), and he’ll be getting more media attention next week than
last. But will it last?
It would be a mistake to think of Cain’s weekend victory
as a fluke. He’s enormously engaging, an inspirational speaker, and
a man of real accomplishment in the business world. The line in his
stump speech about how he’s “not a professional politician” always
get big applause.
This weekend’s vote may have been partly a reward for
Cain’s boffo debate performance Thursday and a moving speech
Friday. But Cain’s platform, which he is good at articulating, is
unambiguously conservative by any standard. He is, as we Southern
recovering Episcopalians are fond of saying, a mensch. He’s for
real, and may well have staying power.
Perry, on the other hand, is showing signs of stress
fracture, and may well be on his way back to AAA ball. His reason
for being in the race was as the conservative who could win. The
guy Republicans not comfortable with Romney could get behind. But
the more Republicans learn about his immigration policies, which
include his dreamy DREAM-act and opposition to a border fences, and
about his requirement that all government school girls in Texas be
vaccinated against a sexually transmitted disease, the more many of
them wonder how conservative Perry, a Democrat until 1988, really
is.
Creeping ideological doubts aside, Perry’s stock also went
down thanks to yet another poor debate performance. At various
points in Thursday night’s services, Perry looked somewhere between
lame and lost. He just didn’t look as smart as Romney, though both
of them at times looked like a bickering old married couple. We’ve
already elected one inarticulate former Texas governor as
president.
During Friday’s speeches, Perry pounded the theme that
Americans aren’t looking for the “slickest” candidate, or the one
who is the most skilled debater. An understandable line for him to
take considering his Thursday night fumbling. But it availed him
not much. Perhaps many who voted for Cain or another candidate than
Perry feared that in debates with Barack O’Barnum next year, Perry
would have his butt handed to him, as he did Thursday
night.
Now the sun will shine more brightly on Herman Cain, and
many conservatives are eager to see what he will do with this
opportunity. Those with the merest familiarity with political
history understand how perishable the bumps from straw votes,
caucuses, even primaries can be. Cain picked up a clear and
impressive victory Saturday. He will have to build on it if he’s to
have any hope of replacing our current socialist
president.
Whoever wins the Republican nomination for president will
have a good shot at Florida’s 29 electoral votes. A Quinnipiac poll
released last week shows 57 percent of Florida voters disapproving
of the job Obama is doing as president, while only 37 percent
approve. The poll shows that if the election were held last week
(and how many conservatives in America wish it were?), Romney would
beat Obama 47-40 in Florida while Perry would lose 42 to 44. But as
fresh as these poll numbers are, the events of Presidency 5 show
just how short political lifetimes can be, and leave Herman Cain,
now a contendah, looking for a rematch.
