Hot-headed they may be, but the Thomas Friedmans of our world
aren't exactly "on fire."
In a recent New York Times
op-ed, Thomas Friedman called Republican presidential hopefuls
Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann "crazy" because they doubt man-made
global warming. But his argument smacks of the desperation of the
Cult of Algore as it sinks under the weight of science, Solyndra,
and logic.
After beginning with his ad hominem attack,
always the refuge of those who know they're about to lose an
argument, Friedman makes one
error of logic after another.
First, he argues that Perry's rejection of man-made
climate change is crazy because Texas "is on fire." In other words,
the fact that there is hot weather means that there is man-made
climate change. This sort of example, while dramatic, confuses a
short-term situation with a long-term phenomenon.
But, while risking committing the logical error of "appeal
to authority," on which more in a moment, I might point Mr.
Friedman to a NYTimes article from last year in
which the author writes, "Of the festivals of nonsense that
periodically overtake American politics, surely the silliest is the
argument that because Washington is having a particularly snowy
winter it proves that climate change is a hoax…" In other words, a
brief event does not prove anything about multi-generational
trends. The author of that
article was one Thomas Friedman who was, to be sure, still
arguing for man-made global warming, but using essentially the
opposite of his current argument.
Next, Friedman offers a "false cause" along with an
unfalsifiable proposition, arguing that instead of global warming,
the phenomenon should be called "global weirding" because "the
weather gets weird." In other words, if the weather gets "weirder"
than before, Friedman will attribute it to man-made factors. People
tend to forget past weather except for the most destructive storms,
and so almost any period of "weird" weather will likely strike many
as weirder than the past. If he wants to talk about weird, he must
use quantifiable data, such as frequency
and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes -- for which the data
show no correlation with atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Now back to "appeal to authority": Friedman proceeds to
say "this is high school physics,", referring to an
article on a website of the far-left organization,
ThinkProgress, in which a climatologist explains that a warmer
atmosphere holds more water vapor "so the effects of the drought
are magnified by higher evaporation rates."
Beyond the fact that anyone can write anything on a
website (and I ask you to check my data below), Friedman has a
couple of big problems here. First, he neglects to mention that the
same climatologist says just prior to the words he quotes that "We
often try to pigeonhole an event, such as a drought, storm, or heat
wave into one category: either human or natural, but not both. What
we have to realize is that our natural variability is now occurring
on top of, and interacting with, background conditions that have
already been altered by long-term climate change." In other words,
nowhere in the material that Freidman is using for evidence does
his quoted authority actually say that Texas's troubles are
primarily or even substantially man-made.
More importantly, Friedman conveniently ignores the
most recent science related to climate change, a story that
consumers of "mainstream" media certainly have not heard: New data
from NASA satellites show that our atmosphere is trapping much less
heat than any of the alarmist models predict, implying much less
future warming than Algore and Thomas Friedman would like to scare
us into expecting.
As long as Friedman wants to appeal to authority, I might
suggest a more credible one: On the same day in which
Thomas Friedman's opinion was printed in the New York
Times, Dr. Ivar Giaever, a winner of the Nobel Prize in
physics (and who endorsed Barack Obama in 2008), resigned from the American Physical Society
following that group's claim that it is "incontrovertible [that
man-made] global warming is occurring."
His letter to the APS gets right to the point of how
science has been perverted by the Carbon Cult: "In the APS it is ok
to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time and how
a multi-universe behaves, but the evidence of global warming is
incontrovertible? The claim (how can you measure the average
temperature of the whole earth for a whole year?) is that the
temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8 degree Kelvin in
about 150 years, which (if true) means to me is that the
temperature has been amazingly stable, and both human health and
happiness have definitely improved in this 'warming' period." It's
no wonder that Giaever realizes that "global warming has become a
new religion," and that "We frequently hear about the number of
scientists who support it. But the number is not important: only
whether they are correct is important."
Friedman is going somewhere with his scare tactic
argument, regardless of its obvious weaknesses, somewhere much more
expensive than Beverly Hills or Bora Bora and just as unaffordable
to most Americans.
After saying that the critics of the economics of green
jobs "have a point -- sort of," Friedman finds the magic potion for
his particular cult, an idea that can create "green jobs" and
reduce carbon emissions. And all it takes is for you to destroy
your own standard of living!
There is only one effective, sustainable way to produce
"green jobs," and that is with a fixed, durable, long-term price
signal that raises the price of dirty fuels and thereby creates
sustained consumer demand for, and sustained private sector
investment in, renewables. Without a carbon tax or gasoline tax or
cap-and-trade system that makes renewable energies competitive with
dirty fuels, while they achieve scale and move down the cost curve,
green jobs will remain a hobby.
In other words, "green jobs" will only be competitive if we make
driving your car, heating your house, and buying anything that
requires transportation to get to the store (which is to say,
almost everything you ever buy) much more expensive. Friedman's
plan would make electricity prices "necessarily
skyrocket," to quote Barack Obama from his San Francisco
reveries.
It's a remarkable prescription from a liberal given that
this is the single most regressive tax one could propose.
Low-income people spend a major percentage of their incomes on
food, transportation, and utilities; Friedman's plan would be
devastating for them unless -- as the Democrats would no doubt
propose – upper income earners then subsidize the higher costs for
lower earners, turning climate change into just another method of
wealth distribution.
Ross Kaminsky is a self-employed trader and investor and is a senior fellow of the Heartland Institute. He blogs at Rossputin.comand is the host of The Ross Kaminsky Show on Denver's NewsRadio 850 KOA at 11 AM on most Sundays.
Very sobering numbers and concisely constructed, worthy of
spreading around the web. If I posted to FB though, I would be
impressed if even a handful of 'friends' would bother to read it.
And that is a shameful indictment of the true state of the
Republic.
Timothy L. Pennell| 9.19.11 @ 12:17PM
Look at the Environmental Flat Earthers. The people who SIT IN
TREES, so as to prevent them from being cut down. The Great
Unwashed. (By that, I mean, THEIR HAIR) Their Hair is always dirty.
Their Clothes are always dirty. And they smell.
Because they don't bathe, and they smell so bad, they don't fit in,
and they need SOMEWHERE to go.
So, they sit in trees. The work is easy. I'm sure they get food.
And the Rent for the branch, is well within their means.
What could be better?
I've explained the MORON'S affinity with the "Movement", but, what
about the IDIOTS of the World? The Thomas Friedmans.
How can someone who's so clean, has a nice Apartment, and THINKS
he's so smart, align himself with the Dirty, Stupid people who live
in Trees?
I think that he's trying to latch on to something. A Cause.
Something that he can believe in.
Does he believe in GOD?
I don't know. Does BILL CLINTON count? Does KEYNES? OBAMA?
Why does he believe a guy - AL GORE - who has made Hundreds of
Millions selling Carbon Credits, through his Environmental HEDGE
FUND? Aren't Millionaires and Billionaires BAD? Aren't Hedge Funds
even WORSE?
What about Al Gores huge New House, on the BEACH? Didn't he tell us
that the Oceans would rise 100 Ft. if we didn't give him all of our
Money, right now?
Or, did Obama really lower the Ocean Levels? (Like he said he
would)
And, what's up with all of his Private Jet travel? Are Private Jets
GOOD, now?
Why do the Thomas Friedmans let themselves become the USEFUL IDIOTS
of one Stupid Cause, after another?
Are they just STUPID?
Was P.T. Barnum, right?
Or, is it that they're WATERMELLONS?
Green on the outside.
RED on the inside.
I'm thinking.......All of the above.
I disagree with Friedman's notion that government is the driving
force behind the success of the US economy. In fact, I would argue
that it was only during periods where government was at least
partially restrained that the US made progress.
oldfart| 9.19.11 @ 7:11AM
Agreed - the best that Government can do, financially, is cause
no harm.
Mike Hawk| 9.19.11 @ 7:45AM
Friedman is a Socialist, what would you expect from him?? Free
markets are anathama to him.
mames| 9.19.11 @ 12:07PM
Friedman is a lazy pseudo intellectual who has been made a king
only by his fellow intellectual pygmies. I am confident he has
added tons to the carbon "problem" if for no other reason than
hauling his fat ass around the globe and his high intake of
calories. Go sell crazy some place else we're all full up here.
Pseudo Intellectual| 9.19.11 @ 3:17PM
HEY! I take offense at that remark. Freidman is most assuredly
NOT one of us!
By the way, anyone else see the knee slapping irony in the fact
that this pompous "green advocate" makes his living by
dissiminating his thoughts via a medium that requires mass
deforestation to produce it?
Typical freakin' "Do as I say, not as I do" liberal...
play nice| 9.19.11 @ 4:05PM
"Friedman is a Socialist" - by marriage a very wealthy
socialist.
Vote Loud| 9.21.11 @ 11:13PM
Follow the money...
This man is all about HIS wallet and access to the Democrat
structure, and the power they can accumulate.
A classic example of why radical "Progressives" (Marxists) like
him and the rags and networks that they work for are losing
readership and audience.
Yawn!
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:07PM
Yup. He's a gold-digger in multiple ways. And an idiot.
Merlin| 9.19.11 @ 7:19AM
I know that one observation is not science, but getting plants
in the garden and orchard to grow like weeds is not difficult and
an increase in plant growth is expected if CO2 levels increase. So,
let's tax those who are not doing their part to increase carbon
emissions.
oldfart| 9.19.11 @ 7:32AM
The Mantra in the 1970's was to plant 10 trees for every person
in your household. Those 10 trees would supply each person with
lifetime of O2 and tie up TONS of CO2 for centuries. The problem
with that it is difficult for the Government to regulate and
therefore TAX this kind of activity – so it is ignored today.
However, it is still the single most effective way for the average
Joe and Jane to make an impact. The exhaust from cars in the '60s
and 70's was downright nasty and I can remember smog alerts in
Virginia from car exhaust alone on hot August days. The air was so
nasty you could see it. That does not happen anymore – I think
sometimes we forget how far we have come. Today it seems we are
trying separate fly feces from pepper. In business it is called the
'law of diminishing returns' where you are spending more with
insignificant results.
Alert1201| 9.19.11 @ 9:21AM
I remember as a kid (late 60s) we had a Pfizer plant that
constantly reeked of rotten eggs. When we drove by it my sister and
I would playful fall down on the floor gagging and holding our
noses. Now you hardly know the place is there. I also remember
rivers and streams with a perennial layer of film and scum floating
on them and places where you could not fish where now you can even
eat the shellfish. On the mouth of the Thames river in New London
CT there was a celebration in the mid 80s because the first swan
had been seen a few miles up the river where one had not been seen
in any living man's lifetime.
Things have gotten much better, but that does not help the
envio-wacko's agenda so they are forgotten.
MOS was 71331| 9.19.11 @ 11:01AM
Don't worry about it. If there's more CO2 in the air, plants
will automatically respond by growing more and replacing the added
CO2 with O2.
daddio| 9.19.11 @ 11:40AM
Why does this seem so hard for people to understand?
JB| 9.19.11 @ 4:24PM
Please, daddio and MOS: We all know that is patently not true.
The plants will all burn up or be drowned in the super mega
droughts and floods that will encompass the Earth, should the
planet's mean temperature rise to levels that they were just a few
centuries ago. (Wait, what did I say? We all know the Earth has
never been warmer than it is today!) Just ask Tom Friedman.
oldfart| 9.19.11 @ 7:23AM
One key point these people seem to be ignoring is that according
to NASA's data the rate of sea level change in decreasing. Also it
appears that some data was modified to account to the 'rebounding'
of the land masses since the end of the last ice age. Well if the
land is going up, including that land below sea level, would it not
only cause the sea level to rise as well? DUH? And the sole cause
of this is a .039% change in CO2? Do you know why water vapor is
excluded? It the single biggest factor in warming. This whole thing
is one massive scam.
Rob Schapiro| 9.19.11 @ 7:33AM
Dont get caught up trying to understand the minds of warmists. A
lot of people made a very good living perpetuating human caused
global warming. They want the good times to keep rolling. In short,
follow the money.
daddio| 9.19.11 @ 11:41AM
As in everything-follow the money!!!
play nice| 9.19.11 @ 4:08PM
tulips, any one?
Norbert| 9.19.11 @ 7:36AM
Never heard of Friedman. He may be the enviro-faker you claim.
What 'd like to know is - what qualification in any of the
geo-sciences do you possess? I ask because I'd like to know how
much credibility to your view that global warming isn't
man-made.
db| 9.19.11 @ 7:53AM
Hey Dilbert, don't you recognize liberal clap-trap when you hear
it?
RustyG| 9.19.11 @ 7:58AM
You should get out more Norbert. Friedman is a pulitzer winning
author for the NY Times. He studied at all the same Environmental
Science programs as Mr. Kaminsky....... namely none. Mr. Friedman
however spews his ignorance twice weekly in the supposed "paper of
record" so every lefty can and will repeat it. Mr. Kaminsy needs to
geo-science degree to point out the failed logic and inconsistency
in the writings of Friedman .....if you would bother to read the
article.
RustyG| 9.19.11 @ 8:01AM
Should read "needs NO geo-science degree"..
The Bruce| 9.19.11 @ 11:01PM
Why even get into this discussion? Norbert is the same person,
twenty years from now, that'll be trying to convince us that we're
all about to die in an ice age due to global cooling -- and I'm
sure he'll find a way to make it man made.
In other words, in twenty years, it'll be the 1970s all over
again.
JP| 9.19.11 @ 8:43AM
Norbert,
Perhaps you should ask Dr Kevin Trenbeth. He holds a PHD in
Atmospheric Sciences, and is currently a big-wig at NCAR. What is
interesting is what people like him say off-line. One of the most
publicized emails from the Climategate publications came from
Trenbeth. He emailed Dr Michael Man and a few other activists in
the UK. He asked in exasperation, "What happened to the lost heat
content?" It seems thier models over-estimated the amount of heat
Greenhouse gases in fact trapped. Just a few weeks ago, his
question was answered by the folks at CERN. It appears much more
incoming solar radiation is reflected out to space than the experts
calculated.
To rub salt in the wound, 2 NASA scientists, Dr Spencer and Dr
Christy published a study last month in which they theorized that
changes in long term cloud cover variations (especially in the
Tropics) have a much more profound effect on Climate than the
Alarmists realized. And what did our highly credentialed, high
respected, and very well paid Dr Trenbeth do? Why, he pressured the
editor of the technical journal which published the paper to
resign. That's how our degreed experts do science.
My degree is not in science. That said, I have read books, many
papers, and been to dozens of lectures by climate scientists, and
it is clear to me -- not least because of Climategate -- that what
is going on with "climate change" is not science.
It is a combination of a few other things: religion,
anti-capitalism, and money-grab by grant-chasing scientists and
organizations.
Furthermore, the DATA simply don't support the alarmists'
claims. Their models absolutely CANNOT explain the flat
temperatures of the last decade.
The primary reason, as I understand it, is that all the alarmist
models make one particular kind of assumption, namely one of
positive feedback. That is, they assume that a warmer planet
generates things such as more cloud cover which then serve to warm
the planet further.
However, there is much more credible actual EVIDENCE rather than
the alarmists' theories that the climate system has negative
feedback.
The story I linked to about NASA satellite data is extremely
important, by the way.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 9:59AM
'The story I linked to about NASA satellite data is extremely
important, by the way.'
Er, no it's not, Ross. The paper was by Roy Spencer, and it's
been shown almost immediately to have no merit and is full of
errors - and the editor of the journal has resigned for allowing
such an awful paper to be published.
Jack,
Pray tell what part of the paper didn't have merit? Was it
Spencer's drift calculations, sensor calibrations? statististical
methodolgy? What exactly did the peers of Climate Science find
wrong with the study?
Offering a citation from some partisan blog no longer holds
water -if it ever did. And speaking of peer review, why did Dr
Roger Pielke offered this review of UAH's work over the years
(including the recently finished study):
"To summarize specifically the UAH MSU dataset, it has gone
through about 9 revisions (A, B, C, D, 5.0, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 –
some listed in CCSP 1.1.) Two of the revisions involved changes Jim
Wentz of RSS spotted, but the other seven were ones John Chrsity
and Roy Spencer discovered (i.e. major ones like the spurious
warming due to a change in the sensor when the satellite went in
and out of sunlight).
Such corrections are what happens in the normal course of
science when you are the first to build the data set and discover
issues as time goes on, especially when a satellite goes through a
calibration shift. Their data are publicly available and their
methods published in a diverse range of peer-reviewed
journals."
Peilke as well as statistical expert Steven McKintyre took
skepticalscience to the woodshed over its strident ad hominem
attack on Spencer.
'Peer-reviewed journals are a pillar of modern science. Their
aim is to achieve highest scientific standards by carrying out a
rigorous peer review that is, as a minimum requirement, supposed to
be able to identify fundamental methodological errors or false
claims. Unfortunately, as many climate researchers and engaged
observers of the climate change debate pointed out in various
internet discussion fora, the paper by Spencer and Braswell that
was recently published in Remote Sensing is most likely problematic
in both aspects and should therefore not have been published.'
JP| 9.19.11 @ 1:02PM
Peer review journals in Climate Science is an incestuous joke,
where climate scientists peer review eachothers studies. Not in
chemistry, nor in physics or engineering does this occur. They
essientially grade eachothers work. And when one steps out of line
(like Wolfgang Wagner), they attack. Wagner was forced to
resign.
And please, answer my initial question. Please name one major
item in Spencer's paper that was so wrong? Please compare Spencer's
paper to Mann, Bradley, and Hughes 1998 Climate Reconstruction
paper (aka the Hockey Stick). MBH98 was also "peer reviewed". And
the experts did such a fantastic job that they failed to notice
huge errors in Mann's R2 verification statistics; divergence
between the Stripbark Bristlecone tree-rings and local
temperatures; falure of both the Monte-Carlo tests and Red Noise
tests...I could go on.. but these failures in and of themselves are
enough humiliate if not end the careers of most scientists in other
fields. Yet. for some reason people like you ignore them and try to
raise strawmen over the work of real scientists like Spencer.
Spencer's biggest mistake is to publish corrections to his own
work.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 1:49PM
You're wrong - the work by Mann and all the other top climate
scientists has I'm afraid been on track.
I commend the site of Barry Bickmore to you (see also link I
posted above). He's a geochem prof and importantly for this
discussion he's a Republican and a Morman, and as he says:
'I’ve recently been involved with other scientists and scholars
in Utah trying to stop the spread of outright lies, half-truths,
abuses of data, and distortions about climate change. Much of this
disinformation is coming from (or through) some Republican members
of the Utah Legislature, and the other Republican (and some
Democratic) members have swallowed it hook, line, and
sinker....
'(In addition, I’m a Republican myself, and it galls me that my
own party has locally fallen for a bunch of conspiracy theories and
scientifically incompetent trash. In my opinion, something has to
be done to save the party from disaster in the long run.)'
'A new paper by Andrew Dessler shows that this is just another
in a long string of Roy’s faulty claims to prove that climate
sensitivity is lower than previously thought. The main problem in
all of these attempts has been rampant abuse of statistics.'
HUH?| 9.19.11 @ 3:28PM
You're attempting to prove the scientific bona fides of an
individual by citing the fact that he's MORMON? "Oh, yes, Barry
over there believes that the Lord Himself appeared to some old coot
in a barn in Utah in the 1800's and said, 'Pardon me, chap, but
there's a thing or two I forgot to mention in my last best seller;
I was hoping you'd be so kind as to help me set the record
straight'. So, clearly, THIS is a man of unimpeachable scientific
credibility."
What's next? "I commend to you the published work of the
renowned scientific expert, Dr. Jim Smith, who, as further evidence
of his scientific expertise, happens to be a Grand Wizard of the
Order of Witchery."
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 4:00PM
I don't care what religion he is - the point is that there are
some religious republicans who are part of science and not voodoo.
I'll wager he doesn't believe in intelligent design either (unlike
Roy Spencer).
HUH?| 9.19.11 @ 4:09PM
Sounds like you should be investing in real estate in the North
and South Poles, then. Future beach front properties - you know,
buy low, sell high and all that...
Of course, it might take another 100,000 years or so for your
investment to mature (and that's assuming the normal cyclic pattern
that has characterized global climate for the past several million
years doesn't continue) - but hey, I for one admire an investor
who's willing to take the long view.
JEM| 9.19.11 @ 4:38PM
Sorry folks - no point in arguing with this guy. McIntyre's and
McKitrick's study on Mann's stick was devastating and it has never
been refuted. I read the paper a few years ago and what was amazing
was the assertion that the algorithm Mann used would create a
hockey stick with essentially any dataset used.
http://climateaudit.org/ this paper discusses the
errors in Spencer's recent work, the corrections already made, and
essentially supports the findings, albeit realizing that there is
additional study to do. It also takes a nice shot at Trenbeth for
his appallingly poor attack on Spencer, as well as his general CYA
activity as he realizes ("where's the heat") what he has claimed
for over a decade is not supported by the science in any manner at
all.
The Cloud CERN study also destroys all the models upon which the
warmists were able to create fear and confusion by indicating that
CO2 impact on cloud formation has been off, by a larger factor than
anyone realized. In fact it may be almost meaningless. Ammonia may
be a trace gas with some impact but stellar radiation and the sun's
own radiation disruption seems to drive temperatures more. More
study is clearly needed, but if anyone wants to say Mann's work has
been validated by anyone other than someone in bed with him on the
scam, you would be a liar. There is a reason UVA is fighting the
FOI request from the AG of Virginia. Once it becomes apparent that
Mann was actually guilty of fraud for govt funds received - because
he has no real non-tampered data to support his theories - he will
be facing jail time, as will Trenbeth. My guess is in the end they
will just be sent to some small nothing university to live out
their professional lives where they cannot do anymore harm. But
what a hit to their standard of living. So, when you are cornered,
fight back hard because the alternative is pretty much a
non-starter from most people's perspective.
Am I saying that most warmists are evil, fraudulent hucksters, a
modern day version of a snake oil salesman of older days gone by?
No, but there are a small cadre of them who are - Mann and Trenbeth
amongst them - and who deserve severe punishment. They wanted to
kill millions in homage to the god of AGW. And I say that on the
basis that their preferred remedy was to reduce GDP worldwide,
which means more people on the edge of life don't make it. Jack is
just someone who drank the koolaid.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 5:05PM
Accusing a scientist of deliberately falsifying data is about as
serious as it gets. But your pathetic little witchhunt is old hat
now as the updated models are also showing the same hockey stick
effect. I would love warming to be disproven so you can get on
enjoying your SUV but it's not working out that way.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:25PM
Hack
Bruce Berger| 9.19.11 @ 8:46PM
Jack,
You seem to consider yourself a man of science. That's good. Let
me ask you something. Considering that the Earth is 4.6 billion
years old and the industrial age has been around for only 150 years
or so, wouldn't you agree that to adequately test global warming
models we would need to test actual measured temps over the next
100 years at the very least to distinguish AGW from natural
variation?
From what I have read it appears that the climate models have,
in effect, been fitted to observed data over the last 100 years.
That says absolutely nothing about their predictive ability. That
should be tested rigorously.
I realize the need to test the models over this time frame
doesn't square with the alarmists' need to "do something now". But
it is the only way to do it the right way. I assume as a man of
science you agree it should be done the right way.
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:11PM
Yes, I believe that he (Mann) was accused of falsifying
scientific data. And his being cleared was a whitewash.
The measurement data appears to be crap from the beginning, AND
then the data appears to be massaged to fit, the amount of money
for supporting AGW seems to be fantastic.
Jack, if this set up was occuring for a scientist at a Big
Pharma company, you'd be crying foul if they found a "miracle
drug."
Warwick| 9.24.11 @ 12:04AM
As soon as you throw up the tired old idea that "you attack the
idea of man-made global warming because you can't stand to let go
of your SUV" you show yourself to belong to the gullible schoolgirl
legions of green-left ideology believers.
This is debate at such a low level that I reckon you disgust
yourself
The Mann "hockey stick" has been thoroughly and completely
discredited by McIntyre and McKitrick. I would add that I've spoken
to McIntyre about this and that he's no right-winger looking to
discredit alarmists just for the fun of doing so. He was just
really pissed off that a "scientists" would do some of the crap
that Mann did, such as using a methodology that created a hockey
stick-shaped output no matter what input the program was given.
Anybody who says that Mann is credible is simply not to be taken
seriously.
And that's before Mann's scientific crimes in Climategate which
should have been the last nail in the coffin of his reputation.
skip| 9.19.11 @ 12:13PM
Equus Asinus Enthalpy London,
The source 'skepticalscience' you cite is a blog.
The blog 'skepticalscience', in the 'About' page, in the 'About
the author' section, states about the author: "He is not a climate
scientist."
The link of the blog 'skepticalscience' you provide states the
article is a re-post of an article at 'RealClimate' authored by
Kevn [sic] Trenberth.
'RealClimate' is a blog.
The blog 'RealClimate', in the 'About' page, states: "The
discussion here is restricted to scientific topics and will not get
involved in any political and economic implications of the
science."
The blog 'RealClimate', in the 'Contributors' page, lists twelve
current permanent contributors.
Kevn [sic] Trenberth is not one of the twelve current permanent
contributors of the 'RealClimate' blog listed.
One of the current permanent contributors of the 'RealClimate'
blog listed is Michael Mann.
Michael Mann is one of the United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientists notorious for being
completely discredited because he was repeatedly caught lying and
cheating by repeatedly intentionally manipulating IPCC non
peer-reviewed research inaccurately and dishonestly in order to
knowingly intentionally deceive the public.
The link of the article you provide from the blog
'skepticalscience' which re-posted an article from the blog
'RealClimate' authored by Kevn [sic] Trenberth has a link for Kevin
Trenberth.
The link for Kevin Trenberth, in the 'About Kevin' section,
states about Kevin Trenberth: "He was a lead author of the 1995,
2001 and 2007 Scientific Assessment of Climate Change reports from
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)"
You are an idiot.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 1:51PM
Hi Shirley Temple - I see you're still in way over your purty
little head.
In what universe has Michael Mann's work _not_ been cleared as
authoritative?
DaveD| 9.19.11 @ 2:02PM
"In what universe has Michael Mann's work _not_ been cleared as
authoritative?"
The one you and I both live in. Mann's famous hockey stick graph
has been completely discredited.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 3:57PM
Sorry but you're wrong. It's just a climate change denier's
parroted talking point to say it's been discredited. You need to
look beyond your politics.
JEM| 9.19.11 @ 4:47PM
Failing to remember my own advice but here goes.
Jack please provide the link to whatever is your authority for
saying McIntyre and McKitrick's destruction of Mann's hockey stick
model was ever refuted itself.
And be careful, because statistically speaking, Mann doesn't
apparently know much about statistical analysis.
I have looked for a refutation of M&M but have never found
one. Give it your best shot - otherwise you are just talking.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 5:13PM
The refutation lies in subsequent research that is also showing
a similar hockey stick effect. What you don't seem to realise is
yes, there were flaws in the original paper, but the error margins
were stripped out in reporting and nothing has actually disproved
the overall effect. This article in a British newspaper is the best
explanation I've seen:
You're missing the point, in my opinion. M&M made a
significant contribution by showing that Mann was extrapolating
from tree rings in a limited geographic area when he created the
original hockey stick. But Mann's work has also been verified by
countless other scientists that have created temp reconstructions
since, including a Republican Congress-requested comprehensive
analysis by the National Academy of Sciences. M&M pointed out
an error Mann made (that's science), but the error did not
significantly effect Mann's conclusions. His reconstruction was
still valid and has been replicated using countless proxies from
countless geographic locations.
JP| 9.20.11 @ 7:17AM
Mann's entire reconstruction depended upon one single proxy -
the California Stripbark Bristlecone. Mann totally mis-used
Principle Components (Wegeman 2004, McKintyre 2003-2006, von Storch
2005), without which the sharp blade on his Hockey Stick would have
been impossible to construct. Remove the Bristlecone, and you
remove the Hockey Stick. Later, M&M also showed the Mann did
something similar with the Yamal Series of proxies. And no, niether
Mann (using ocean sediments as proxies), nor Santer have been able
to reconstruct the Hockey Stick using other methods. That is
complete bunk.
JEM| 9.20.11 @ 11:49AM
His error invalidated his entire algorithm. When you can take
any set of data and get your desired move? And to Jack - no one has
refuted M&M's study - no one. Don't give me studies which just
resupport Mann. Give me one which takes apart M&M. You will be
looking for awhile. And of course please provide the models used by
warmists that predicted future temperature increases that have been
within even two standard deviations of their forecasts. M&M had
to sue just to get the data Mann used which he said he had lost or
it got damaged and destroyed - or the dog ate it - lol!
No, Mann is no scientist. That is why he is fighting as hard as
he can to keep the truth out of the eyes of the public. If he had
nothing to hide - why not turn over his research? Share it. Open it
up to scrutiny. He won't because he already knows it can't.
Nope. You are the typical left wing cheer leader. The hockey
stick graph has been debunked. But to the left, repeating a good
lie like the hockey stick will not be stopped by facts. The fact is
it doesn't matter what the climate change crowd says or lies about,
you will back them regardless of the truth. Spencer's paper had a
couple of errors, but they used those to attempt to totally
discredit him. Mann flat out lied but he has people like you
backing him. Hansen has deleted and modified original datasets and
in science, that is blasphemy. He did so citing "corrections" to
the data. This just is not allowed. You can show the calculations
you used to adjust the set, but to actually alter the original set
is to totally destroy the data, yet the left still supports this
loon. So no matter what the facts are, you will never not support
the climate warming scare mongers. It has become your religon.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:33PM
With the possible exception of the Loehle outlier, every temp
reconstruction of the past several years that has made it into a
peer-reviewed journal shows that we have surpassed the highpoint of
the MWP and any other period for the last couple millenia. In that
sense, Mann's hockey stick has been confirmed.
Spencer's paper had a couple of errors?!??! Ha. He completely
made up a global statistical analysis based on one satellite
reading (and I'm sure you're aware of his history of serial
errors).
Your stuff on Hansen is just right-wing blog slander. You may
disagree with him, but his methods and data are and always have
been transparent.
I would suggest that it is you who are unable to deal with the
facts in front of your face.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 3:36PM
The name "Michael Mann" carries with it the same cachet in the
scientific community as the name Anthony Weiner does in the
political community. You're basing your argument on the views of a
coctail party joke, and yet you expect to be taken seriously?
Drunken Sailor| 9.19.11 @ 4:21PM
No Trinarcria, he doesn't expect us to take him seriously. Jack
just likes to jump on some post and stir up the fecal matter to
check the aroma.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:26PM
There appears to be no other credible explanation...
tsd| 9.19.11 @ 7:53AM
They want to raise the prices on things we need for basic
survival (food, heat and shelter) until that is all we can afford
to spend our money on... while they steal the money and take the
power for they're ultimate fantasy world. These green preachers are
the worst type of evil!!
Timothy L. Pennell| 9.19.11 @ 8:19AM
Look at the Environmental Flat Earthers. The people who SIT IN
TREES, so as to prevent them from being cut down. The Great
Unwashed. (By that, I mean, THEIR HAIR) Their Hair is always dirty.
Their Clothes are always dirty. And they smell.
Because they don't bathe, and they smell so bad, they don't fit in,
and they need SOMEWHERE to go.
So, they sit in trees. The work is easy. I'm sure they get food.
And the Rent for the branch, is well within their means.
What could be better?
I've explained the MORON'S affinity with the "Movement", but, what
about the IDIOTS of the World? The Thomas Friedmans.
How can someone who's so clean, has a nice Apartment, and THINKS
he's so smart, align himself with the Dirty, Stupid people who live
in Trees?
I think that he's trying to latch on to something. A Cause.
Something that he can believe in.
Does he believe in GOD?
I don't know. Does BILL CLINTON count? Does KEYNES? OBAMA?
Why does he believe a guy - AL GORE - who has made Hundreds of
Millions selling Carbon Credits, through his Environmental HEDGE
FUND? Aren't Millionaires and Billionaires BAD? Aren't Hedge Funds
even WORSE?
What about Al Gores huge New House, on the BEACH? Didn't he tell us
that the Oceans would rise 100 Ft. if we didn't give him all of our
Money, right now?
Or, did Obama really lower the Ocean Levels? (Like he said he
would)
And, what's up with all of his Private Jet travel? Are Private Jets
GOOD, now?
Why do the Thomas Friedmans let themselves become the USEFUL IDIOTS
of one Stupid Cause, after another?
Are they just STUPID?
Was P.T. Barnum, right?
Or, is it that they're WATERMELLONS?
Green on the outside.
RED on the inside.
I'm thinking.......All of the above.
R. Nixon| 9.19.11 @ 4:24PM
People of the MSM like Friedman are so invested in Global
Warming alarmism that they have painted themselves into a corner
from which there is no honorable escape!!
As a result, they have no choice but to "go down fighting" which
is exactly what they are doing.
Indy| 9.19.11 @ 8:38AM
Please pay attention to what your children are learning in
school, read textbooks, review the curriculum, what movies are
shown in class? Learn about Agenda 21, do your local council
members, commissioners know what it is and how it is being
implemented?
When will I safely be able to emit methane from my arse again?
Holding flatulence can lead to diverticulitus.
Anthony| 9.19.11 @ 8:44AM
Tell this clown Friedman to have Michael Mann and the other
"academics" release their emails and other data that they are
trying to hide, and then let's talk about which side is
crazy.
For a science that's "settled", information is hard to come by from
these same frauds who pretend to be objective scientists.
Follow the grant money and it will lead to leftist whores with an
agenda.
MOS 1 1 2 | 9.19.11 @ 8:44AM
I met a retired State Dept. fellow from the D.C. area, recently,
who said he has never met an intelligent person who didn't believe
in man made global warming. Sort of reminded me of the story of the
Manhattan matron, who was astounded when Reagan won 49 states,
because, she said, "I never met anyone who voted for him." Thomas
Friedman writes for these people.
FYI, the story is about Pauline Kael, former movie critic for
the New Yorker magazine, and the statement attributed to her was
about Nixon.
It's a great line, though it does appear to be a misquotation of
what she actually said! Still, I hope she's glad to be famous for
something...
RGK
JohnnyB53| 9.19.11 @ 8:53PM
Kael is also famous for starting a lifelong obsession against
Clint Eastwood, who in her mind was unredeemable after playing the
lead in the supposedly fascist "Dirty Harry." Watch "Dirty Harry"
today and you'll wonder what all the fuss was about.
MOS was 71331| 9.19.11 @ 11:09AM
Hey, MOS 1 1 2! I post as MOSwas71331 because 71331 was my Army
Military Occupational Specialty, Airborne Combat Engineer Troop
Leader. All the MOSs I heard of were four digit numbers (1331) with
a possible prefix (7) for airborne qualified. What does "MOS 1 1 2"
mean?
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 9:40AM
Dr. Ron Paul Will Stop Global Warming, Whether It's Real Or
Not.
The Tea Party Rebellion Escalates.
Rise Up.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 10:24AM
Ricky Perry Will Stop Global Warming,Whether It's Real Or
Not.
The Ricky Perry Algore Cheerleaders Are In The Building.
We Go Down For RINO's.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 10:54AM
Yeah, that sounds like something I would post...
Nice try, Clint.
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 10:58AM
You Israel Firster Ricky Perry Algore Cheerleaders can stop
Poseur Punk Posting under my name.
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 11:18AM
That Was Not Me.
That Was Israel Firster Ricky Perry My Fantasy Love Algore
Cheerleader Pussy Poseur Punk Posting.
Get Bent, Asshats.
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 12:50PM
That Was Drunken Sailor, My Fantasy Love Algore Cheerleader
Pussy Poseur Punk Poster.
We Bend Each Other.
Doctor Right | 9.19.11 @ 12:52PM
That Was Drunken Sailor, My Fantasy Love Algore Cheerleader
Pussy Poseur Punk Poster.
We Bend Each Other.
Drunken Sailor| 9.19.11 @ 1:12PM
That Was Doctor Right, My Fantasy Love Algore Cheerleader Pussy
Poseur Punk Poster.
We Bend Each Other.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 1:57PM
Yeah...I'm sure EVERYONE will think that was me...
Drunken Sailor| 9.19.11 @ 2:46PM
I was just thinking the same thing DR. Poor picked on Clint, I
think it has made him unhinged.
Is it just me or does he show a lot of repressed homosexual
tendencies?
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 3:11PM
It's NOT just you; I have noticed that as well, and remarked on
it on several occasions.
Many of Clint's posts are filled with angry, homoerotic
references...Makes you wonder if he's even aware of it?
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 3:22PM
Dr.Reich Thinks About Queer Stuff Quite A Lot.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 4:09PM
...Only when I read your posts, Clint!
Clint | 9.19.11 @ 8:32PM
Uh Oh !
Dr.Reich's Queer For Tea Party Clint.
Drunken Sailor| 9.19.11 @ 3:32PM
I think he is totally aware of it, but can't help himself or
come to terms with it. Thus the mental instability.
Then again I think he has a blow up Ron Paul doll so I could be
wrong.
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 3:57PM
We Heard Drunken Swabbie Blows The Navy Goat.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 4:10PM
It's part of the "follower" mentality. Extreme politics attracts
people with extreme emotions. Eric Hoofer discussed this at length
in "True Believer":
SUMMATION:
Hoffer argues that all mass movements such as fascism, communism,
and religion spread by promising a glorious future. To be
successful, these mass movements need the adherents to be willing
to sacrifice themselves and others for the future goals. To do so,
mass movements often glorify the past and devalue the present. Mass
movements appeal to frustrated people who are dissatisfied with
their current state, but are capable of a strong belief in the
future. As well, mass movements appeal to people who want to escape
a flawed self by creating an imaginary self and joining a
collective whole. Some categories of people who may be attracted to
mass movements include poor people, misfits, and people who feel
thwarted in their endeavors. Hoffer quotes extensively from leaders
of the Nazi and communist parties in the early part of the 20th
Century, to demonstrate, among other things, that they were
competing for adherents from the same pool of people predisposed to
support mass movements. Despite the two parties' fierce antagonism,
they were more likely to gain recruits from their opposing party
than from moderates with no affiliation to either.
The book also explores the behavior of mass movements once they
become established (or leave the "active phase"). With their
collapse of a communal framework people can no longer defeat the
feelings of insecurity and uncertainty by belonging to a compact
whole. If the isolated individual lacks vast opportunities for
personal advancement, development of talents, and action (such as
those found on a frontier), he will seek substitutes. These
substitutes would be pride instead of self-confidence, memberships
in a collective whole like a mass movement, absolute certainty
instead of understanding."
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 4:56PM
Ya Wanna Play Your Cherry Pickin' Games, Religious Hypocrite,
Dr.Reich.
"Take man's most fantastic invention -- God. Man invents God in
the image of his longings, in the image of what he wants to be,
then proceeds to imitate that image, vie with it, and strive to
overcome it."
-- Eric Hoffer
The opposite of the religious fanatic is not the fanatical
atheist but the gentle cynic who cares not whether there is a god
or not.
Eric Hoffer
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 5:06PM
Interesting, that Plastic Faux Christian Dr.Reich has a serial
problem with Us Catholics & then quotes Hoffer at Us.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 5:07PM
...And your point is..?
Sorry, Clint, but being able to cut-n-paste from a website about
Eric Hoffer does NOT lessen your latent, deeply repressed
tendencies...
Clint | 9.19.11 @ 8:33PM
I Could Deeply Recess My Boot Up Your Fixated Fag Ass.
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:17PM
Is that a threat of violence, C(lint) Elegans?
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 3:19PM
Uh Oh !
More Queer Talk From The Ricky Perry Algore Cheerleader Drunken
Swabbie.
Dan Hirsch| 9.19.11 @ 11:04AM
In the late '80's Bill Buckley wrote an article in National
Review cautioning that since the 'workers' were rejecting the
communists' so-called 'help' to improve the proletariat's lot, the
communists were looking for more appreciative beneficiaries. Mr. B
suggested that the communists would now try to save 'the trees',
because trees would never be so rude and ungrateful as to reject
the communist salvation as Lech Walesa and the Gdansk shipyard
workers so ungallantly did.
Then in September of 1989, Scientific American published an
entire issue devoted to "Managing the Planet". Having learned to
read research papers in grad school, I subscribed to that rag to
maintain my skill at understanding impenetrably dense research
writing.
That issue had articles, most written by honest-to-God research
workers with more PhD's than names, devoted to some of the major
variables in the global climate system. I recall they covered the
moisture cycle, the carbon cycle, ocean currents, weather systems.
I read every one of them-they all came to the same general
conclusion: this is a very complicated subject, we don't have
enough data and computing power to model the subject. They
concluded that they did not know how or why things were the way
they were. They needed a lot more research to have any kind of
model for their field of study. Which to those of us fluent in
researchese means send more money!
After wading through these articles I was surprised that they
shared the "Heck, if we know..." conclusion. I was then shocked
when I read the "Editor's Note" at the front of the issue. He
obviously was a lot smarter than his authors; he said that it was
CLEAR from these articles that there was no time for delay - we had
to act about global climate change and act now because of the
serious conclusions of the research in this issue.
I was appalled. So I 'cancelled my own g-d subscription,' that
day. But I did learn a couple of things:
SA's editor knew that his readers didn't read the articles
that SA's authors didn't read the editorials and
to be on the lookout for more climate malarkey. This was already
after the Ice Age, Nuclear Winter, and Global Cooling hoaxes and
"Dewey Defeats Truman!"
This global climate farce has been political since it was
invented!
It was SA Vol 261, No 3...I encourage you to take a look at this
- if they weren't going to enslave us with this, it would be
funny.
And another thing; it's amazing how much of our lives and our
treasure they'll waste to 'fix' the ocean level rising 3' in a
hundred years. Especially when you consider how little they are
doing about the ocean level temporarily rising, 30', 40', 50' in
half an hour, which actually happened at least twice in the last 8
years! Is anyone doing anything different after 250,000+ real, live
human beings with names and families were killed in the 2004 and
2011 tsunamis? Of course not! If they did, they know we would
expect to see some positive results, results soon. Maybe they could
tote up the lives 'not lost, or saved' based on imaginary events,
or maybe Hollywood disaster movies that actually didn't come
true...
The climate thing has been a political ruse from the git go.
Nothing has shown it to be anything else. Every syllable out of Al
Gore's mouth proves it yet again. When oh when will the Securities
and Exchange Commission bring Al Gore up on securities manipulation
and fraud charges?
DTOM
DH
PS - Recently, in my dentist's office, I picked up an issue of
Scientific American. The articles were not written by researching
PhD's; they were written by Time Magazine correspondents!! Don't
let anyone, throw that bird cage liner, fish wrap, toilet paper at
you, ever! Sheesh...DH
MOS was 71331| 9.19.11 @ 11:14AM
Well said, Dan. For puzzled readers, DTOM is short for "Don't
tread on me." (I'll save you the trouble of searching for it on the
internet.)
WJ| 9.19.11 @ 11:44AM
Friedman is a repulsive hypocrite. Pictures of his 15,000 square
foot mansion can be found on the web. His massive carbon footprint
with that house is proportional to the massive waistline he
sports.
My degree is not in natural science, but I've got enough
training in critical thinking to be extremely skeptical of the
global-warming crowd.
15,000 years ago, the spot where I now sit was covered by
glaciers, as was almost 1/3 of the current U.S. The globe sure as
hell warmed, and it wasn't because prehistoric Native tribes were
driving around in SUVs.
Further, the warming that melted the glaciers was hardly a
disaster for Man. One of the things that bothers me about the
global warming "science" is that it assumes that the world as we
experience it should be permanent. Natural history, from fish
fossils on desert floors to glacial recession, demonstrates that
the natural world is always in a state of flux. On the one hand,
we're taught evolution; on the other hand, the very same folks tell
us the would should always remain as it is.
Al Gore warns us of the impending catastrophe and the flooding
of New York City, etc. etc. Who says it shouldn't be such? The
world has undergone many "catastrophic" changes. Ask the Romans at
Pompeii. Or just wait until the caldera under Yellowstone
blows.
Anthony| 9.19.11 @ 2:05PM
Dr.X, You make an excellent point, and one that I have tried out
on warmers, to no avail. In addition to the glaciers of 15,000
years ago, I have made mention that for millions of years
previously, most of the Earth was under a vast shallow inland sea,
and numerious variations thereof.
When I remind warmers of our childhood dinosaur books, with the
various eras showing vast portions of the U.S. different from
today, they remain mute.
But your point about Algore says it all about these fanatics. It's
all about them and their time on earth. This generation is the most
egocentric ever to have inhabited the planet.
What climate changes that have transpired over the billions of
years the Earth has existed is lost on these morons. They want
things as they have known them to be, and demand no changes,
despite how insane that perspective is. Their 80 years on this
planet is the most important in the entire lifespan of Earth.
The Earth has, and will always undergo climate changes, but if
Algore & friends are not there to witness it, did it really
happen? That is what drives these self absorbed idiots.
The Bruce| 9.19.11 @ 11:24PM
Another good example is... ask the now dead residents of a land
mass that is now the Mediterranean Sea.
Seems that ocean levels rose even in the absence of our SUVs
back then.
George S| 9.19.11 @ 12:47PM
We are also being suckered by the logic of false alternatives.
If AGW is indeed happening, then the only alternatives we are given
is:
a) Raise the price of energy and send that money to Democrat
bundlers in the form of Solyndra type loans; charge carbon taxes
that eventually wind up in the pockets of politicians; install a
cap and trade market that creates the latest crop of billionaires
becoming rich off your money without having to work.
b) The sea levels will rise as a result of melting ice caps,
swallowing cities whole; hurricanes will be more frequent and
powerful causing untold destruction; fertile farmlands turn into
deserts; drinking water disappears causing widespread human
suffering.
That's it, pick one. Not offered as an alternative: longer
growing seasons worldwide allowing greater food production from
crops and livestock; increase in population in once frozen
climates; increase in economic activity as a result of happier
people (businesses, vacationers and retirees are found in warmer
climates); overall health of people improving from warmer
climates.
Scientist may disagree on the mechanisms on the AGW debate. but
one thing they'll never agree on is the wild predictions from An
Inconvenient Truth.
So, what exactly is the problem with a few extra days of summer
and why must we go broke to prevent that from
happening?
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 4:03PM
I take it you'll be happy to accommodate a few thousand
Bangladeshis in your neighborhood George. Well done.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 4:16PM
Yeah - that's not a false alternative:
"Raise energy prices and go green OR be overrun by a swarm of
immigrants from Bangladesh".
But I should like to think the Bangladeshi's will be all too
pleased to relocate to the newly available beautiful tropical
shores of the North Pole (I hear the view will be lovely there year
round).
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:20PM
Happy to welcome as many Hindus and Buddhists as possible. Love
Indian food. Need more Indian restaurants in Northern
Minnesota.
See, your false alternatives are even worse than that but the
left is just dishonest. Lets just say global warming is real for a
second and follow this logic.
1. We completely restrict energy and the burning of fossil fuels to
lower the CO2 output. The outcome of this: We lower food production
and the manufactoring of pharmacueticals, pesticides and
herbicides. Food becomes scarce in the US and we ship less over
seas and the third world countries starve to death.
2. We ignore it. The world gets warming, the coasts move in and
disease picks up. Less food is produced become some lands become
arid. The food becomes scarce and we don't ship as much food over
seas, the third world starves again.
So if their reality is true, a bunch of people starve to death
either way. So what is the benefit to their solutions? Ah, nothing.
But they do obtain significant power if we go along with them.
dw| 9.19.11 @ 12:52PM
The "Green Crowd" is being used by he "Red Crowd".
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 1:04PM
Gorebull warming is a political power play, nothing more.
Tom Osterman| 9.19.11 @ 1:26PM
Back when Reagan, in one of his first acts as President,
deregulated the price of gasoline, liberals predicted that prices
would soar due to "price gouging," I.e. Big Oil would charge
consumers both arms and legs for a gallon because the government
would not stop them. What actually happened is that the dollar
price per gallon stabilized, and remained stable for around a
quarter century.
After a while, liberals took a different tack: Big Oil was
charging too little, encouraging consumers to drive wasteful and
environmentally harmful vehicles like SUVs. What was needed was
higher gas taxes to encourage conservation.
So here we have the great paradox of energy pricing: when the
private sector raises the price of gas, it's greed, but when the
government raises the price of gas, it's enlightened public policy.
And liberals think no one will notice!
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 1:50PM
Big government to progs is like heroin to a junkie.
Brian| 9.19.11 @ 3:42PM
The left discusses the calamity of doing nothing as a reason to
do "something". But it would seem the rationale for doing
"something" would be definitive proof it would actually work. I am
a computer model skeptic even IF I believed global warming were
real. Do we really think that we've crafted an algorithm that
approximates the complexity that is Mother Nature? Isn't that the
height of hubris? And isn't the most frightening cataclysm that we
do "something" and then it not work (after we've bankrupted our
nation, set off massive geopolitical instability, and be less
equipped to deal with any consequences of global warming - if it
were real to begin with)? Wouldn't any so-called progressive agree
that we should be certain of the outcome - which requires much
deeper understanding of how our climate works, science that is
definitively not settled. Especially when the computer models have
been wrong to date.
GBinPA| 9.19.11 @ 3:46PM
Great article. I suspect that the increase in atmospheric carbon
dioxide may have been caused by the natural warming cycle rather
the other way around. At any rate, nobody's buying this garbage any
more.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:25PM
Chemistry disproves your "suspicion" GBinPA. First, CO2
concentration levels are going up consistent with CO2 emission
levels
Second, there is nothing in the natural carbon cycle cannot explain
increase of 3.2-4.1 GtC per year past 25 years
Chemistry closes the door on your suspicion, as the ratio of heavy
(C-13) to light (C-12) carbon has been declining (which shows the
increased CO2 is traceable back to decayed plant and animal matter,
or fossil fuels); the ratio of oxygen to nitrogen decreasing (which
shows that it is actually carbon being emitted and binding with the
oxygen, rather than naturally occurring CO2), and there is a
decrease in relative amounts of radioactive (C-14) carbon.
David N| 9.19.11 @ 3:49PM
Tom Freidman knows everything, don't you know? Global warming is
a fact, he knows why the economy slowed down, man, he just knows
everything.
MikeN| 9.19.11 @ 3:53PM
The .04% amount of CO2 is irrelevant. Increasing the amount of
CO2 will have a warming effect on the atmosphere and a substantial
one of about 1 degree Celsius. The author of the new study that
shows holes in climate science die to satellite measurements, Roy
Spencer, has posted on his blog about why carbon will warm the
atmosphere. The question is whether this 1 degree will be amplified
or reduced thru feedbacks.
Incidentally I think you are also misrepresenting that study as
well.
R. Nixon| 9.19.11 @ 4:09PM
.04% is the equivalent to 4 seats in a 10,000 seat stadium. Who
are you trying to kid!!!
Think about it people.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 4:23PM
It's even sillier than that - 0.04% represents the TOTAL amount
of CO2 in the atmosphere, not the increase in CO2 observed over the
last half a century. Using that figure (0.008%, or an increase from
0.032% to 0.04%), the analogy would be like adding less than ONE
seat in a 10,000 seat stadium.
Brubaker| 9.19.11 @ 7:42PM
"The .04% amount of CO2 is irrelevant. Increasing the amount of
CO2 will have a warming effect on the atmosphere and a substantial
one of about 1 degree Celsius. "
So, according to you, the amount of CO2 increase is irrelevant.
Increasing the amount of CO2, whether by a minuscule amount or by a
huge amount, will result in 1 degree Celsius in atmospheric
warming.
The scary part is, that probably makes sense to you.
ella8| 9.19.11 @ 4:01PM
I am working on increasing my standard of living. If Friedman
had it his way I would either be sterlized, forced to have an
abortion, or unable to afford raising children. The Obama
administration is already pushing the third agenda; my health
insurance, heating my home, driving my car, and buying groceries
are all more expensive.
ella8| 9.19.11 @ 4:13PM
The next step is making safe family friendly vehicles non
existent and forcing us to live in urbanized areas where only the
rich or those on welfare can afford to have children. I grew up
working poor, we didn't get government handouts, we payed taxes,
and life was a struggle. This heartless man would like that
struggle to be even greater for the average American. People need
to wake up and realize this can't be solved by taxing millionares
and the GOP needs to grow a pair and stand up for those of us that
are losing any gain we have made in our standards of living thanks
to the pseudoreligious ideologues on the left like Obama and
Friedman. We need leaders who stand with fervor and intelligence
against the green machine. I will not sacrifice my standard of
living and my family. Life is hard enough without the watermelon
burden. It sure the hell is a regressive tax.
Ross - Ya dun good man!
Good job of tackling the subject with facts, logic and an easily
understandable writing style. I take back what I've said about some
of your pieces in the past (too long, too complex, too geeky).
However..... and as Reggie McDaniel (RIP) used to say, "there's
always a however" ........ nothing will convince me that it's not
the Tea Party's fault. Just look at what they've done to our
economy as revealed in this Pundit Pete Press article. http://punditpete.blogspot.com.....t-and.html
Keep up the good work!
MikeN| 9.19.11 @ 4:16PM
R Nixon it is arguments like that why climate scientists don't
take skeptics seriously. It is not 4 seats in a 10000 seat stadium,
but rather carbon spread throughout the atmosphere, at a very small
amount. This small amount traps heat, if you increase this amount
it will trap some more heat. You are starting at zero, and the
existing level of carbon raises the temperature by about 30
degrees. Doubling this level of carbon will warm things up by one
more degree.
R. Nixon| 9.19.11 @ 6:14PM
BALONEY!!!
There are plenty of climate scientists who do not buy this CO2
theory.
Those who were involved in the CERN Experiment certainly are not
buying your theories.
They seem to have actually proved that cosmic rays and the sun
have a lot more to do with climate change than CO2 and IPCC
forecasting models.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:16PM
Where to begin?
Mr. Kaminsky starts with an ad hominem attack on Mr. Friedman,
and then criticizes Friedman for utilizing an ad hominem
attack.
Mr. Kaminsky then builds a strawman by taking two things
Friedman said -- that Perry rejects the science of climate change,
and that Texas is on fire -- and claiming that Friedman is falsely
arguing that a singular weather event is conclusive proof of the
science of climate change (Friedman made no such argument).
Mr. Kaminky then makes a semantics argument by focusing on
Friedman's use of the term 'global weirding,' a term that Friedman
didn't coin. Friedman explained exactly what that meant -- the hot
gets hotter, the wet gets wetter, the dry gets drier -- but Mr.
Kaminsky does not try to
challenge the substance of Mr. Friedman's point.
Mr. Kaminsky then dismisses Mr. Friedman's point -- that a
warmer atmosphere holds more water, and this leads to magnified
droughts -- by claiming that Mr. Friedman made the logical fallacy
of appealing to authority. Specifically, Mr. Kaminsky dismisses the
substantive point because Freidman cited ClimateProgress. Never
mind that the referenced ClimateProgress article was actually
quoting from the Texas state climatologist in making the point
about relative humidity and droughts. Also never mind that the
sunbstantive point Friedman was making is, in fact, basic high
school physics, regardless of what authority is being appealed
to.
Most egregiously, Mr. Kaminsky claims that the most recent
science, as revealed by NASA satellites, shows that we have nothing
to worry about. In fact, this report Mr. Kaminsky references was
authored by Roy Spencer. It was so rapidly and thoroughly debunked
that the editor of the journal who published it had to resign in
shame because of the sloppy peer review process that allowed the
serial errors to be published. Dessler recently published a piece
thoroughly destroying Spencer's made-up statistical analysis.
Mr. Kaminsky's own appeal to authority is grossly overstated.
While Dr. Giaever did resign from the American Physics Society, the
man is a mechanical engineer who got his Nobel prize in 1973 for
something to do with electrons tunneling thru solids, or something
like that. He is not a climate scientist. He is an 82 year old man
who hasn't published anything since the 1970s and who has man
Senator Inhofe's go-to man on global warming denialism for
years.
Mr. Kaminsky's next attack is the predictable and oft-repeated
mantra that any attempt to put a price on carbon (a) will wreck the
economy, and (b) is socialism. These scare tactics do not pass for
logic. And Mr. Kaminsky could use a bit of a lesson on
externalities.
Mr. Kaminsky builds another strawman by claiming that no one
reports on the fact that CO2 is only 0.04 percent of the
atmosphere, "not even Fox." Anyone who knows anything about climate
science knows this fact ... it is reported in terms of 394 "parts
per million" after all. It's not news, so why would anyone report
on it? And the fact that CO2 is a small % of the atmosphere doesn't
change the fact that it is the primary heat-trapping gas in the
atmosphere (along with water, which of course has a feedback
effect). But for the heat-trapping effect of this small amount of
CO2, the planet would be approximately 18 degrees C below zero, and
the sun's energy would simply bounce off the planet and radiate off
into space.
Mr. Kaminsky's bullet points at the end are nothing novel and in
no way undermine AGW theory. Scientists have long known that
greenhouse effect of increases CO2 is logarithmic, which is why its
forcing effect is expressed in terms of CO2 doublings rather than
in terms of absolute amounts. We know based on analysis of isotopes
that the increase in CO2 levels is anthropogenic, primarily from
the burning of fossil fuels. And that water has a greenhouse effect
should be troubling, not dismissed, because (as Friedman pointed
out and as high school physics tells us) a warmer atmosphere holds
more water ... in other words, water vapor will be a positive
feedback and enhance the warming caused by rising CO2 levels.
But let's be fair to Mr. Kaminsky, he does have a significant
moment of honesty when he says that the point of his article is not
to offer a science lesson. It is also not a very good lesson on
logic.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:23PM
Buzz- gorebull warming is NOT man made, it is a political power
play by the commies in government, your post that goes around in
circle is typical prog BS, get a grip, the government is NOT your
savior and is completely out of control with the hussein at
1600.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:32PM
And them commies better not take my guns either. Bunch of
faggots.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:37PM
It's called the second amendment.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 4:28PM
Very well put, Buzz. But there's not much point in arguing the
science with these wacko deniers - it's only about politics to
them. Any science that comes between them and their 'property
rights' must be denied and anyone who knows what he's talking about
is, as Perry and co on delight in, simply not as stupid as them and
therefore cannot, by definition, be understood.
At the end of the day, the "science" of the alarmists is based
on an assumption of positive feedback which much smarter people
than I believe is erroneous, such as here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/200.....-feedback/
The politics of the alarmists basically assumes that people are
stupid and that we won't react and adapt to whatever change their
is.
Meanwhile, over a few decades during which temperatures warmed
slightly (before this decade), heat-related deaths declined in
almost every major metropolitan area as humans realized the risks
of too much heat exposure and changed either their behavior or
their environment to mitigate their risks.
I would note that the point of Giaever's resignation is not that
he said (at least not this week) that man-made climate change is a
hoax, but rather than he said that what is being put forward as
science is more like religion.
What other science, other than perhaps evolution, causes this
sort of religious, emotional reaction, and even fear of
disagreement?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 5:02PM
You criticize Friedman for citing Joe Romm, and now you're going
to rely on Anthony Watts to undermine the conclusion of the great
majority of scientists that the net effects of feedbacks will be
positive?!!?
These are the feedbacks we know:
-- As the atmosphere warms, it holds more water, which enhances the
warming.
-- As the planet warms, sea ice melts, reducing the earth's ability
to reflect solar energy,which enhances the warming.
-- As the earth warms, permafrost melts, causing massive release of
methane, which enhances the warming.
-- As the oceans warm, they hold less CO2, which causes more CO2 to
escape to he atmosphere, which enhances the warming.
-- As the soil warms, there is greater microbacterial activity,
which breaks down more soil and releases stored carbon, which
enhances the warming.
And I won't even get into the possible feedback effects of
wildfires and increased air conditioning use.
The only feedback that is plausibly argued as negative is
clouds, and scientists on both sides acknowledge that we do not
know enough about how and where clouds will form in response to
warming(higher clouds enhance worming, lower clouds will have a
cooling effect) ... or even if more clouds will form at all.
The AGW theory-as-religion argument is just another one of those
read-and-repeat catch lines ... I think it was coined first by
Patrick Michaels. Obviously, folks who think climate change is a
real threat believe it is the skeptics hose views are more akin to
religion, in that they deny all of the evidence in front of their
eyes an the only real plausible theory that has been advanced to
explain why the climate is changing.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:50PM
"-- As the atmosphere warms, it holds more water, which enhances
the warming.
-- As the planet warms, sea ice melts, reducing the earth's ability
to reflect solar energy,which enhances the warming.
-- As the earth warms, permafrost melts, causing massive release of
methane, which enhances the warming.
-- As the oceans warm, they hold less CO2, which causes more CO2 to
escape to he atmosphere, which enhances the warming.
-- As the soil warms, there is greater microbacterial activity,
which breaks down more soil and releases stored carbon, which
enhances the warming."
Since I wasn't around then, perhaps you could comment on whether
the above series of events occurred as the earth emerged from the
last ice age. As I recall, that worked out rather well for us.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 6:05PM
Yes, Trinacria, these feedbacks occurred as we come out of ice
ages. The increased solar input from the Milankovich cycles is
quite small, and could not have brought us out of ice ages by
itself. These positive feedbacks were triggered as a result of
those cycles, and it is generally understood that brought us out of
the ice ages.
Furthermore, you say that the feedback we don't understand is
clouds, but my understanding is that that's the majority of the
feedback in the alarmists' models.
What's crazy about your religion is that you say we must
"explain why the climate is changing." It's like asking why there
are poor people; it's the wrong question.
The question is "why wouldn't the climate change over time?"
sort of like the right question is "why are there rich people?" But
the left never asks the right questions because the answers are so
inconvenient to their true motivations, which are political and
economic.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 6:15PM
I didn't read your link, which was to WUWT, but I'm familiar
with Lindzen's iris theory.
Spencer says that most of the models presumse clouds to be a
positive feedback, but my reading of the comprehensive reports is
that they are quite clear in saying they don't know the effect of
clouds. Lindzen obviously argues that clouds will be a negative
feedback. And I don't think any of the models say that clouds is
the majority of the feedback ... water vapor and snow (albedo) are
generally seen as the most important feedbakcs.
Why do you find it necessary to impinge the motives of folks who
believe climate change is a serious threat? My motivations have
nothing to do with politics and economics ... I am motivated solely
by my little girls and wanting them to have a liveable planet. And
everyone I know who thinks climate change is a serious problem has
a similar motivation.
Look, the climate has changed in the past and will change in the
future. What's striking now is the speed at which the planet is
changing, and the infrastructure we have built up that will cause
massive economic loss if even the moderate ill effects of climate
change come to fruition. We know quite wll what has caused most of
the significant climate changes in the past, and none of those
forcings are present now. Human civilizations are a relatively
recent phenomenon in the history of the planet. There's a lot to
lose if we cause the climate to change dramatically. Why wouldn't
we ask what is causing it and what can we do to avoid it?
William| 9.19.11 @ 10:21PM
RK: I am an agnostic on AGW. But I don't see how anyone can take
the categorical position that human activities over the past 150
cannot have had ANY effect on atmospheric CO2 levels or (at least
potentially) global warming.
Bruce Berger| 9.19.11 @ 9:01PM
Buzz,
How do you explain the fact that the earth has been
significantly warmer in the past, with higher concentrations of CO2
than exist today, yet somehow the earth has arrived at today's
relative nirvana?
In fact, when measured relative to the last 2.5 billion years of
the earth's existence current temps are in the lowest quartile.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 9:11PM
There's nothing really to explain Mr. Berger. I'm not sure what
your point is.
Bruce Berger| 9.19.11 @ 9:52PM
You seem to be quite confident in your climate knowledge, so I
was hoping to get a big picture historical perspective from you
about how we should think about relatively recent human history in
the much longer history of the earth.
If you don't feel like tackling it, that's ok.
William| 9.19.11 @ 10:30PM
Buzz: I think it was you who punted on this one. The
question points up the arguable hubris in believing we know the
"right" temperature for the earth and even may be able to stabilize
it. If AGW is significant, we should be concerned about it and take
reasonable, cost-sensible steps to limit it.
But surely even that supposedly 90+% of scientists who accept AGW
would say that, if steps are taken, we can eliminate global
warming. If so,they should go on record that they believe AGW is
essentially the SOLE cause of global warming.
William| 9.19.11 @ 10:32PM
The penultimate sentence should have said the 90+% of scientists
who accept "would NOT say."
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:04PM
Sorry William. Not being coy, just not sure what you're asking.
Human civilization has thrived over the last 15,000 years or so. It
seems reasonable to conclude that keeping temperatures in that
range would be a good thing. We have hundreds of billions living
within a few feet of sea level, and trillions of dollars of
infrastructure money invested in that same area, so it seems
keeping temperatures in ranges that minimize coastal destruction
would be a good thing. We have an infrastructure built around
certain agricultural zones, so it seems like a good idea to keep
temperatures at a level that will keep those zones stable. And it
seems reasonable to keep temperatures at a level that will minimize
extreme weather events. And minimize climate refugees. And minimize
habitat loss and destruction of ecosystems.
Beyond that, I'm really not sure what you're saying.
William| 9.20.11 @ 1:05AM
Wow, I'm not sure what to say. Maybe I've missed something, but
I find your response shocking.
Buzz: I'll accept that the climate for the last 15,000 years
has, on average, been very favorable for mankind. Over this time,
we have grown from single-family or small family groups of early
humans to the cultivating, husbanding and ultimately modern
civilization we are today. This favorable climate likely was a
significant reason for the extraordinarily rapid evolution of
modern man.
But how can you pick this short -- eye-blink -- period out of
the billions of years of geological (and climate) history of the
earth and presume that we can keep the climate forever the way it
has been during this brief period of geological time? Apart from
all the milleniums that came before, just in the past several
million years we have gone through many ice ages, the last of which
ended some 20,000 years ago and eventually led to the rise of man.
If one were going to make a rough guess of what the natural
processes of the earth will produce next, you would have to bet on
another ice age.
There were, of course, hundreds of millions of years, indeed
billions of years, that preceded this recent period of ice ages.
During that time the earth went through extremes of climate change
and the continents came together and parted several times. The
changes in the world's climate during that time were dramatically
greater than even the most extreme projections of modern global
warming enthusiasts.
I don't know whether man could survive those extreme climate
fluctuations from the distant past, and I don't know what these
historical climate fluctuations may say about the future of the
earth's climate, EXCLUDING the effects of man's activities, but I
feel comfortable in saying that there WILL be changes and that man
currently does not have the competence to predict them. I am also
certain that while man has (potentially) the ability to control the
contributions he makes to factors affecting future climate, he
cannot prevent those changes that would have incurred anyway,
without any contribution from humans.
I don't know whether you are saying that, without any AGW, the
climate of the earth would always stay as it has been the last
(few) 10-15,000 years, or whether you are saying that man should do
(and presumably has the power to do) whatever is necessary to
ensure that the earth retains this climate regardless of what the
natural evolution of the earth otherwise would produce. In either
case your view on the importance of man in the scheme of nature,
and our power to control the processes of the environment, is, I
think, way over the top.
Viewed from this perspective, the climate of the last 10-15,000
years, and indeed the evolution of mankind from apes to modern
humans (maybe a few million years) was an almost immeasurably small
portion of the earth's history. Given this perspectcive, how can
you pick out the last 15,000 years of earth's climate as something
that could be expected to extend into the earth's indefinite
future, were it not for the pernicious influence of modern man?
William| 9.20.11 @ 1:08AM
Somehow the last paragraph got out of place.
Buzz B| 9.20.11 @ 1:21AM
I didn't say that I expect the climate of the last 15,000 years
to extend indefinitely.
I also very much agree with you that, based on relatively recent
(in geologic terms) history, we should be trending toward an ice
age now ... but instead we're warming.
You pushed me to write something on what the "right" temperature
was. So I gave you some thoughts. It was based on the last 15,000
years because that is the period in which humans have thrived. You
were just waiting to explode with this diatribe no matter what I
wrote.
Whatever, I get bored and have been known to egg on other
posters as well. But I didn't say anything that was particularly
over the top. I'm not even sure what it is I'm supposed to respond
to from your recent postings.
William| 9.20.11 @ 1:47AM
Buzz; I was not sandbagging you. I made other posts under this
article in which I supported your points, and I did think your
posts seemed to make sense, even though I do not have the detailed
knowledge on the science to make an independent judgment. Also, as
I said, I think a basic understanding of the science plus common
sense suggests there might well be something to AGW.
I don't recall pushing you for a "right" temperature and I don't
think you have answered the issues raised in my last post. I don't
take any pleasure in this: I think those who categorically deny AGW
are in the same category as flat -earthers. I thought you were a
non-idealogical supporter of AGW, based upon a knowledge of the
science. I accept that you do know the science, but I think that in
focusing on the trees in the most recent growth in the forest, you
have lost sight of the bigger forest -- which is several billion
years of earth geologic and climate history.
This is why I was so surprised at your last post. Your other
postings didn't seem to be idealogical, but this one seemed to
reflect the liberal mindset that if you are smart enough, and have
the power (through, e.g., government) you can make people, or the
world, how you want them/it to be. It either had to be that, or
that you believe -- in response to a question I raised in another
of my posts -- that global warming is entirely attributable to
human activity and (although I don't think this follows) that if we
can eliminate AGW we can prolonged the current climate
indefinitely.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:32PM
What's your take on it Mr. Berger? I guess I don't think there
is anything in our paleoclimatic history that undermines the
conclusion that human activities have been the primary driver
behind recent warmings and that things are only going to get worse.
Is there something particular in the Earth's history that you think
contradicts this?
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:28PM
I dunno, Buzz. Looking at it from North of Fargo:
Last year the local lake froze over in Northern Minnesota like
it always does and there was ice fishing. This year (in mid- late
September) the weather was already 36 degrees this morning. I
expect that by late November the lake will freeze and not unfreeze
until late April.
Maybe our lows won't go below minus 30 this winter, this year.
That would be some Global warming, you betcha!
Yah.
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:30PM
Next year, my son will be going on nine---time to buy an
icefishing shed then. Maybe with a set up for below ice TV to watch
the fishies.
Yah. You betcha. Global warming is a real problem here.
Oh, are you suggesting that putting a tax on carbon will not
damage the economy? It would likely be the biggest tax increase in
the history of the planet. You think that's good for economic
growth?
And the plan that the Dems want to pass is socialism, or at
least it is wealth redistribution. If you don't want to call that
socialism, that's up to you, but the semantics are not the
issue.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:52PM
I'm not sure what "plan" you're referring to that the Dems want
to pass with respect to CO2. If you're referring to cap-and-trade
(a la Waxman-Markey), then I'd remind you that was the system that
Bush Sr adopted to deal with SOx and acid rain, and that Bush Jr.
tried to adopt for NOx and SO2 (before a court struck it down). It
is also the plan that McCain had been introducing for yearsin the
Senate before he got a Tea Party scare.
Me, personally, I do support an initially modest,
revenue-neutral carbon tax. Here's why:
(1) Even as one who supported the Waxman-Markey bill (a nearly-2000
page bill passed by the House in 2010), it is hard to deny that it
was a beast. Anytime we start crafting a program that has the
government administering a massive cap-and-trade system, that of
necessity is going to include offsets, we create a system rife for
favoritism and speculation. For many, ‘cap-and-trade’ has become
synonymous with big government bureaucracy, a political
non-starter.
(2) There is growing sentiment on both sides of the political aisle
to eliminate subsidies for big oil and coal. It is also likely that
the production and investment tax credits (and most likely the DOE
guaranteed loan program) for renewable and alternative energy
sources will be on the chopping block when they come up for
renewal, if not before. It is a superficially attractive argument
that all energy “subsidies,” including those for renewables, should
get the same treatment. While many who support alternative energy
expansion will disagree with the presumed equivalency of big oil
subsidies and production tax credits for alternatives, we need to
deal in the politically possible.
(3) The whole basis for the renewable energy tax credits, legally
and morally, is to level the playing field -- not only to account
for subsidies and government-funded fossil fuel infrastructure, but
for the external costs that fossil fuel combustion imposes on
society (and that renewables and alternatives would not). Our
leaders need to start talking in terms of these externalities. Even
without climate change adaptation cost considerations, the National
Academy of Sciences has placed the societal costs from fossil fuel
combustion – primarily health care costs -- at $120 billion per
year.
(4) Historically, talk of tax increases was politically poisonous
to the right. Now, it seems, subsidies are drawing even more ire
from both sides of the aisle. For one worried about climate change,
placing a price on carbon (disincentivizing fossil fuels) and
giving tax credits to alternative energy sources (incentivizing
alternatives) have the same leveling effect.
(5) The proposal would be that, as the tax credits for alternatives
are drawn down, the price of carbon ratchets up at identical
levels.
(6) The revenue-neutral aspect of such a carbon tax needs to be
emphasized. The tax is collected at every wellhead, mine and port
of entry, based on the carbon content of the fuel. Every dollar
collected is returned to the public in equal amounts per adult (and
half shares for each child) by checks issued each Spring. The
initial level would have to be set quite low because the cost of
the tax will no doubt be passed upstream to the end users, and
drastic price increases will scare many (at least until they start
getting their rebate checks).
(7) The low level of the initial tax would not dramatically change
behavior (at least not as much as many believe is needed). But,
again, we need to deal with the politically possible. And, very
significantly, even a low initial price on carbon would put in
place the mechanisms and the logistics to allow for a higher tax to
be collected in the future, once the pendulum of climate change
public opinion swings back and people start appreciating those
rebate checks each Spring.
(8) It will be easily understood that people who are energy
efficient will receive more in rebates than they pay in increased
costs, while folks who live energy-intensive (or
fossil-fuel-intensive) lives will be net losers. The incentives for
personally increasing efficiencies will be in place and easy to
grasp.
(9) Even though the tax itself will be revenue-neutral, this
proposal will ultimately be a debt reducer, another political
selling point. This is because government will be spending less on
alternatives, even though the playing field between alternatives
vs. fossil fuels continues to be as level as it is under the
present system.
(10) Many Republicans, from Susan Collins and Bob Corker to Lisa
Murkowski and Lamar Alexander, have supported some version of a
revenue-neutral carbon tax in the past. There are others in the GOP
who recognize the threats of climate change (Lindsay Graham, John
McCain) and who could return to their statesmen roots and get
behind such a plan. This would be needed to offset likely
Democratic opposition from the coal states.
(11) To gain support from Tea Party Republicans, such a system
would have to be in lieu of, rather than in addition to, EPA
command-and-control regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. Such
regulations are being finalized now and, absent the formidable
legislative hurdle of amending the Clean Air Act, EPA has little
choice but to issue such regulations.
(12) Under international law, a carbon tax would also allow the
U.S. to place a tariff on incoming goods (not just on oil, but on
fossil fuel intensive products from, for example, China). This
should be a political selling point. But, more importantly, it
would allow the U.S. to exercise its huge leverage as the world's
biggest consumer to influence behavior in the developing
countries.
(13) If, as some believe, the threats of climate change prove to be
overblown, then ‘no harm, no foul.’ The low level of the initial
tax will not make much of a difference on the macro level. To the
extent it does, it would just be to steer us towards cleaner (in
the traditional sense) and more domestically generated energy
sources. If, as most scientists believe, the harmful effects of
climate change become more pronounced over the next few years and
the public begins again to demand some action, then the mechanisms
and the logistics are in place to set a price on carbon that will
have a meaningful emission-reduction effect.
john| 9.19.11 @ 5:19PM
fairly sensible; rare on this subject
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:41PM
This is the most profoundly well packaged bundles of bull shit
I've ever read in one of these posts.
Thank you, Buzz, for demonstrating precisely the type of wild
assumptions (made with absolute metaphysical certitude) upon which
the man-made global warming models are based. Well done,
comrade.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:43PM
that's bundle (singular)...
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:23PM
Buzz B,
For someone who takes the position of attacking the author on
his logical fallacies, I find the following statement from your
post rather curious:
"Mr. Kaminsky's next attack is the predictable and oft-repeated
mantra that any attempt to put a price on carbon (a) will wreck the
economy, and (b) is socialism. These scare tactics do not pass for
logic. And Mr. Kaminsky could use a bit of a lesson on
externalities."
Upon what experiemental evidence do you base this conclusion? At
a minimum, the hypothesis that arbitrarily placing a value on the
production of CO2 could thereby increase operational costs that
would either (a) decrease net revenue and, by extension,
shareholder value, (b) result in corporations passing along the
cost to consumers, or (c) place US corporations (and workers) at a
competitive disadvantage relative to coutries who chose not to
participate in this system, seems to have sufficient face validity
to warrant rigorous economic research. Yet you exhibit no reticence
in doing precisely that which you have accused Mr. Kaminsky of
doing; namely, you dismiss as a simple scare tactic a potentially
valid hypothesis without a shred of evidence to support your
position. You don't credibly rebut the substance of his claim;
rather, you dismiss it as illogical without revealing a single flaw
in the logic.
With respect to the second claim (i.e., the notion that placing
a value on CO2 represents a form of socialism), it has widely been
reported that the aim of commoditizing CO2 would be two-fold. Like
any tax on a commodity, the primary aim would be to decrease
consumption; however, since the tax disproportionately affects
those who can least afford it, the presumed second aim of the tax
would be to use the proceeds to provide subsidies to those for whom
the tax would create the greatest burden. By definition, therefore,
the tax would result in a redistribution of wealth and the state
would be the vehicle through which it would occur. Sounds kind of
like socialism, doesn't it?
But enough about debate tactics and underlying biases. Let's
address the practical aspects of the commoditization of CO2.
Who sets the price?
Who polices compliance and will the price be sufficient to both
fund regulatory oversight and subsidize those who are
disproportionately burdened by this regressive tax?
If the most egregious offenders of CO2 emission policies don't
agree to participate in the cap and trade system (think China,
Russia, India, virtually any country in the middle east), does this
not place US-based companies (and, by extension, US workers) at a
competitive disadvantage?
Further to this point, do CO2 emissions observe national borders
or is it sheer folly to regulate emissions from one country when
neighboring countries have no such regulation?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 5:53PM
Trinacia -- I'll try to respond to your points.
The "wreck the economy" scare tactic has been used to oppose
every major piece of environmental legislation that has ever
passed. And industry has always survived just fine. and there are
very credible studies which demonstrate that the clean air and
water protected by those laws, as well as the technologies needed
to comply with them, havehelped the economy more than the cost of
complying has harmed the economy.
I'm fairly certain that placing a price on carbon would result
in higher costs being passed on to the consumers. That's the idea
if we want to create incentives that will effect behavior. I do
worry about it being regressive. But if it were truly
revenue-neutral and offset directly by rebate checks (rather, than,
say a decrease in the income tax rate), then I believe most lower
income folks would wind up getting more in rebates than they pay in
increased costs.
The "socialism" scream is another scare tactic, and it's kind of
silly to have to rebutit with any detailed argument. Taxes aren't
socialism. Socialism involves the ownership of the means of
production and centralized planning of who gets what. You are
absolutely correct that all taxes involve a redistribution of
wealth ... so are you saying that all taxes are socialism? I assume
you agree that we need some taxes.
Who sets the price ... well, whoever drafts the law. As I said,
I would initially set it quite low under my ideal scheme. And I
would ratchet down the production tax incentives for renewables to
correspond with ratcheting up the price on carbon. It would be
based on the carbon content of the fuel.
Policing would probably fall to the Dept of Interior (could be
EPA or Commerce or Energy or another agency though). The regulatory
oversight would be minimal, which is one reason why a carbon tax is
so preferable to cap-and-trade in my opinion. Basic physics tells
us the carbon content of the various types of coal and crude, so
all we'd really need to know is the voolume being extracted or
imported, and we know that already. I would think the current IRS
could get out the rebate checks. I don't really see any significant
regulatory costs from a simple carbon tax.
I favor equal distribution of rebates, for the sake of
simplicity And as I said above, I think the rebate system would
rebut any regressive effect on low income folks. But I live in
Appalachia, where upwards of 90% of our electricity comes from
coal-fired power plants. There's not much question that certain
regions will be harder hit that others. And there's a legitimate
argument to be made that the distribution of collected revenue
should be something other than in equal shares, to account for that
disparate impact.
As far as placing the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage, this
is something we face with all of our environmental and labor laws
... countries that don't have such standards can make stuff
cheaper. The carbon tax I propose has advantages over traditional
regs though, because under GATT we can place tariffs on imported
goods so long as we place the same tax on domestic goods. So we
could tax all incoming fossil fuels. And I would argue that GATT
even allows us tax goods from other countries that use fossil fuels
in the manufacturing process if that country doesn't impose a
similar cost. So it actually gives us some market leverage to
persuade others to adopt similar measures. And, obviously, taking
domestic action gives us more credibility in post-Kyoto
negotiations to get other countries to adopt similar measures.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 7:44PM
RESPONSES BELOW:
I'm fairly certain that placing a price on carbon would result
in higher costs being passed on to the consumers. That's the idea
if we want to create incentives that will effect behavior. I do
worry about it being regressive. But if it were truly
revenue-neutral and offset directly by rebate checks (rather, than,
say a decrease in the income tax rate), then I believe most lower
income folks would wind up getting more in rebates than they pay in
increased costs.
RESPONSE: This is precisely my point. If lower income folks end
up getting more in rebates than they pay in increased costs,
someone else bears the cost of this redistribution. When wealth is
transferred there is, by definition, an economic cost. At a
minimum, there's an administrative cost (someone has to collect and
redistribute the money); on the larger scale, corporations are
faced with increases in operational costs. Some of this will be
passed on to consumers (who, unless they are among those with the
lowest incomes, will not be fully compensated by the rebates), but
some will likely be borne by the corporation. When corporations are
faced with increased operational costs, they pay lower dividends to
shareholders (who in turn have less to invest in things like
growing their own business or buying more widgets) and they begin
to look with increasing scrutiny for ways to cut costs (and we both
know the first thing to go when this happens). But let's assume, as
you suggest, that most of the cost will be passed on to consumers -
if the corporation can pass along the cost with no impact on net
revenue, and the consumer will be reimbursed for the increased cost
that they incur, how is consumption decreased?
___________________________
The "socialism" scream is another scare tactic, and it's kind of
silly to have to rebutit with any detailed argument. Taxes aren't
socialism. Socialism involves the ownership of the means of
production and centralized planning of who gets what. You are
absolutely correct that all taxes involve a redistribution of
wealth ... so are you saying that all taxes are socialism? I assume
you agree that we need some taxes.
RESPONSE: "Socialism involves the ownership of the means of
production and centralized planning of who gets what." When the
government decides what level of CO2 production/usage is
acceptable, sets the "price" that companies shall pay for it's
production/usage, and determines how the proceeds are
redistributed, how can it be said that the market is not centrally
planned?
_____________________________
Who sets the price ... well, whoever drafts the law. As I said,
I would initially set it quite low under my ideal scheme. And I
would ratchet down the production tax incentives for renewables to
correspond with ratcheting up the price on carbon. It would be
based on the carbon content of the fuel.
RESPONSE: "Who sets the price ... well, whoever drafts the law."
So legislators - not market forces - will dictate price? Why stop
at CO2 prices? Why, legislators have certainly demonstrated a keen
understanding of fundamental economic principles. Perhaps they
could dictate the price of things like CT scans and coronary bypass
surgery and ... wait a second, that's been done before -
nevermind.
Moreover, if renewables were economically viable, why the need
for production tax incentives in the first place? Wouldn't the
potential market demand be sufficient incentive for companies to
invest in the development of renewable energy platforms?
________________________________
Policing would probably fall to the Dept of Interior (could be
EPA or Commerce or Energy or another agency though). The regulatory
oversight would be minimal, which is one reason why a carbon tax is
so preferable to cap-and-trade in my opinion. Basic physics tells
us the carbon content of the various types of coal and crude, so
all we'd really need to know is the voolume being extracted or
imported, and we know that already. I would think the current IRS
could get out the rebate checks. I don't really see any significant
regulatory costs from a simple carbon tax.
RESPONSE: "I would think the current IRS could get out the
rebate checks." REALLY? They're going to be awfully busy policing
the health insurance mandate (which will require a projected
increase of 16,000 agents).
"I don't really see any significant regulatory costs from a
simple carbon tax." Has there ever been in the history of this
country a tax that didn't carry with it the need for
enforcement/regulatory oversight? Or are you perhaps suggesting
that current IRS agents aren't fully occupied with their current
responsibilities?
_______________________________
As far as placing the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage, this
is something we face with all of our environmental and labor laws
... countries that don't have such standards can make stuff
cheaper. The carbon tax I propose has advantages over traditional
regs though, because under GATT we can place tariffs on imported
goods so long as we place the same tax on domestic goods. So we
could tax all incoming fossil fuels. And I would argue that GATT
even allows us tax goods from other countries that use fossil fuels
in the manufacturing process if that country doesn't impose a
similar cost. So it actually gives us some market leverage to
persuade others to adopt similar measures. And, obviously, taking
domestic action gives us more credibility in post-Kyoto
negotiations to get other countries to adopt similar measures.
RESPONSE: So if I'm a US small business or corporation that
relies on affordable imports for component parts or other goods, I
get a double whammy: first I'm hit with the increased operational
costs related to my own carbon output, then I have to pay a higher
cost of goods as the result of foreign companies increasing their
prices to compensate for the increased cost of importation. Looks
like I better start shedding jobs...
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 8:10PM
Seems like a lot of this is just arguing for the sake of
arguing.
Yes, the people who bear the cost of the carbon tax would be
those who use the most fossil fuel. That is the desired result, not
an unfortunate consequence.
Your description that attempts to equate a carbon tax with
socialism could be said about every tax and regulation. The
government sets the standards for the amount of some additive that
can go into food, the amount of pollution a source can emit, and
the extent of safeguards a factory must install. The government
sets the level of any tax or fine or penalty collected. And the
government determines how all collected revenue is distributed. So,
under your definition, all taxes and regulations are socialism.
With respect to legislators setting the price ... my response is
the same. They sat the level of all taxes; this would be no
different.
With respect to why renewables need the production tax credit
(which I propose phasing out), the government has provided the
funding, contracts and R&D for a whole host of new
technologies, so that's not unusual. But more importantly, the
government incentivizes fossil fuel in a whole host of ways. Quite
apart from the $10 billion or whatever it is in direct tax
deductions, the government built and maintained an entire
infrastructure that supports a fossil fuel economy, it uses troops
to protect the flow of oil, it gives cheap leases to federal lands,
it pays for miner disability benefits and spill clean-up
assistance, it pays to monitor and clean up traditional pollution,
and it pays costs for health problems associated with fossil fuel
use. I would argue that providing incentives for renewables and
alternatives is just one small step to levelling the uneven playing
field that our government has already created in favor of fossil
fuels.
You don't really make an argument why the regulatory costs of a
simple carbon tax would be high, other than government is bad. I
don't see where it would cost more than any other tax, which is
minimal with existing agencies.
I don't see your double-whammy argument. Products will be
subject to one price increase, either the tax imposed at the first
sale in this country, or the increased price of a product as a
result of that tax. If the fossil fuel comes from another country,
it will be subject to the same tax. If its a good from a country
that doesn't put a price on carbon, it will be subject to a tariff
equal to the increased cost a domestically manufactured good
incurs. Obviously, our major trading partners of Canada and Europe
already put a price on carbon. The most likely outcome if we and
Europe and Canada and the rest of the developed world begin
slapping a tariff on Middle East oil or Chinese products, that
they'll just impose the price themselves so that they can garner
the revenue rather than the countries to which they are
exporting.
George S| 9.19.11 @ 10:34PM
"Simple carbon tax"... Who gets the money? And what did they do
to earn it? Why not attach a monitor to people and tax each breath
they take? Simple, no?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:57PM
Read my previous post at 4:52 in this same thread if you truly
care about what I mean by a simple revenue-neutral carbon tax.
George S| 9.19.11 @ 11:14PM
Oh I did read it and it still does not answer the question of
who gets the money that gets attached to carbon sales and
consumption. Does it go to the Treasury as the sales tax on
gasoline does? Well, we have seen what happened to the revenue
neutral social security system (yes, that was the model of revenue
neutral prior to the late 1980's). Does it go to more Solyndras? Oh
you bet it will.
The purpose of a sin tax is to discourage activity. So far, no
one has yet to prove Al Gore's predictions have any validity. That
is the point of all this, right? To avoid Al Gore's clairvoyant
visions of the Earth? Or else why bother? If you say it is because
of 120 billion in health care savings then congratulations on the
birth of another Straw Man. As if people will stop getting sick if
we only levy more taxes.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:20PM
You must not have read it. I propose that every penny collected
is returned to the American public in equal amounts per adult, with
half shares per child.
Obviously, we disagree on the merits of the science, but nothing
I say or have learned is in anyway based on Al Gore.
The $120 billion number is the National Academies' assessment of
costs we as a society bear as a result of fossil fuel combustion,
and it does not include the effects of climate change or a host of
other things that were hard to estimate. Mostly it is health care
costs and infrastructure maintenance.
Trinacria| 9.20.11 @ 1:47PM
Buzz,
Your argument that US businesses would not be placed at a
competitive disadvantage by virtue of our ability to tax imports is
valid insofar as we're limiting ourselves to the US market. While I
pretend to no particular expertise in internation business, it
seems self-evident that a US company that competes in global
markets would, in fact, incur a further increase in operational
costs that foreign competitors are not burdened with. If I sell my
product in Asia, South America, Africa, etc., I'm certainly not
competing on a level playing field. Add to that the fact that I'm
already burdened with the second highest corporate income tax rate
in the world and extraordinarily high human resource costs relative
to foreign competitors.
Of course, I could always move my operations over seas and lower
both my (carbon) tax burden and my human resource costs, but then
it would be hard to argue the the tax hasn't had an economic impact
in the US (and as far as I can tell, it also hasn't really achieved
it's desired result; namely, decreasing my company's consumption of
fossil fuels).
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:35PM
I think it's a great idea with our economy collapsing to pass
another tax designed to max swine like Al Gore rich and the rest of
us poorer, for dubious, very dubious, climate effect.
China will tell us to screw ourselves, fool. We will weaken
ourselves for nothing, anyway. And then, it has not been shown that
our intervention will do anything anyway, or that it is do to man's
actions at all.
People LIVE in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The most powerful
environmental damage man can do was done to those cities.
William| 9.19.11 @ 4:21PM
This subject is a sad commentary on what happens when science
becomes polluted by political agendas -- and I think this is true
for those on both ends of the debate. The result is that the
average person has no way to know what the truth might be.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:29PM
That's exactly the strategy of the ExxonMobils of the world.
They don't have to disprove AGW theory, just throw enough crap to
the wall so that the average person is confused.
Nick| 9.20.11 @ 5:33AM
Buzz B.,
"They don't have to disprove AGW theory, just throw enough crap
to the wall so that the average person is confused."
It is incumbent on those who propose the theory to prove it, not
the other way around. Skeptics poke holes in the theory, and the
proponents defend it with observations that are repeatable. They
don't hide their data. This is how real science works.
You AGW Hoaxers are losing this debate, big time. Keep dreaming
of some sort of Cap and Tax pipe-dream, it's not going to
happen.
Also, why did you claim that there are "hundreds of billions of
people living ithin a few feet of sea level"?
Even if you meant millions, you're still making it up,
according to a March, 2000, report by Vivien Gornitz:
"Approximately 400 million people live within 20 m of sea level
and within 20 km of a coast, worldwide. However, this
figure is not very precise -- the spatial distribution of
coastal populations is not known to better than 20-30 km."
(Emphasis mine.)
William- A vast majority of the scientists that call MMGB "
real", are funded by governments, what do you think they will
publish as " evidence"?
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:35PM
By the way progs, what ever happened to the up and coming ice
age that the government said was inevitable in the '70's?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:44PM
Another blogosphere-generated myth. Of all the peer-reviewed
articles published in the 1970s that made predictions one way or
the other, by a 6-to-1 ratio they were prediciting warming rather
than cooling. A couple mainstream magazines had the cooling
predicition on the cover, which probably started this blogosphere
myth. But the Bulleting of Meteorological Society (BAMS) did a
comprehensive analysis in 2008 of all the 1970s science literature
and showed that it is just false that scientists were predicting
cooling. Others, notably NOAA, have reached the same conclusion. I
can give you a cite to link for those reports if you want. We knoew
the warming effect of CO2 back in the 1970s, and we also knoew the
cooling effect of aerosols. So there was some bases for the small
minority that was predicting cooling. But the great majority (44
out of 51) of those who made a predicition believed that CO2 would
be the dominant forcing agent in coming decades.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:49PM
If you say so Al, they got you hook, line and sinker.
Paul from SA| 9.19.11 @ 5:29PM
Wrong. Check the headlines. They are very similar to today: 100%
consensus among all scientists, 100% certainty, along with the same
dire, scary predictions of massive death, famine, droughts,
flooding, disease, hurricanes, tornadoes,... and it's caused by
humans and we must raise taxes. The only difference is it was
global cooling.
It's the same headlines they used in previous weather/climate
scares going back to the early 20th century.
This is in addition to my post in this thread above 9.19.11 @
12:13PM.
One of the twelve current permanent contributors listed at the
blog 'RealClimate', in addition to Michael Mann - one of the IPCC
scientists notorious for being completely discredited because he
was repeatedly caught lying and cheating by intentionally
manipulating IPCC non peer-reviewed research inaccurately and
dishonestly in order to knowingly intentionally deceive the public
- is William Connelly.
The link of the article you provide from the blog 'scienceblogs'
is posted by William Connelly and authored by William Connelly
among several others.
The link of the article on a study you provide from 'USA Today'
is authored by William Connelly among several others.
In this thread you repeatedly cite the National Academy of
Sciences.
The National Academy of Sciences is a politically appointed
council.
The politically appointed National Academy of Sciences is
established by Congress.
The politically appointed National Academy of Sciences is
established as an honorific society.
The politically appointed National Academy of Sciences has had
as a committee member and advisor to various panels Michael
Mann.
The politically appointed National Academy of Sciences attempted
to refute the Global Warming Petition Project at
petitionproject.com signed by 31,487 scientists who debunk manmade
global warming, who provide their names, degrees, scientific
specialties, the peer-reviewed research, 132 references to the
peer-reviewed research, and verified the academic credentials and
the professional credentials of all 31,487 scientists in response
to saboteurs.
The politically appointed National Academy of Sciences attempted
to discredit the 31,487 scientists at petitionproject.com who
debunk manmade global warming and provide their names, degrees,
scientific specialties, the peer-reviewed research, 132 references
to the peer-reviewed research, and verified the academic and
professional credentials of all 31,487 scientists in response to
saboteurs.
Your lengthy commentary is light on scientific evidence and
reason and experience and heavy on political ideology and emotional
prattle.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:37PM
So anyone associated with realclimate, the IPCC or the National
Academies is untrustworthy in every study they do? Got it.
Your tin foil conspiracy crowd awaits your return to the
Mothership.
skip| 9.19.11 @ 10:50PM
This brief commentary is devoid of scientific evidence and
reason and experience and is exclusively political ideology and
emotional prattle.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:55PM
Can you refute the BAMS study that scientific literature in the
1970s was overwhelmingly concerned with warming not cooling, except
by saying that one of the authors has some ties to someone who has
ties to some blog or organization you disagree with?
skip| 9.19.11 @ 11:46PM
I couldn't help but notice your political emotional prattle
devoid of scientific reason and experience ignored that the sources
you've used from the non peer-reviewed research of the discredited
IPCC, the politically appointed National Academy of Sciences, and
the blog RealClimate, all have in common Michael Mann, one of the
IPCC scientists notorious for being completely discredited because
he was repeatedly caught lying and cheating for intentionally
manipulating IPCC non peer-reviewed research inaccurately and
dishonestly in order to knowingly intentionally deceive the
public.
I couldn't help but notice your political emotional prattle
devoid of scientific reason and experience ignored the Global
Warming Petition Project at petitionproject.com, signed by 31,487
scientists who debunk manmade global warming, who provide their
names, degrees, scientific specialties, the peer-reviewed research,
132 references to the peer-reviewed research, and verified the
academic credentials and the professional credentials of all 31,487
scientists in response to saboteurs.
Global Warming Petition Project:
We urge the United States government to reject the global
warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December,
1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on
greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of
science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of
mankind.
There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of
carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or
will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the
Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover,
there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in
atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the
natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:51PM
not worth responding to
skip| 9.20.11 @ 12:29PM
To clarify:
It is not worth responding to a connection between Michael Mann
and the sources you cite to support your arguments.
It is not worth responding to a petition 31,487 scientists have
provided about greenhouse gases in general and carbon dioxide in
particular.
It is worth expounding extensively for radical political,
social, and economic tyrannical change adversely affecting the
liberty of mankind on the basis of pseudo-reasoned experience of
trivial quasi-scientific minutiae of statistical insignificance
amounting to nothing more than emotional prattle.
It is worth noting a primary weapon in your arsenal of
argumentation is the non sequitur, and typical of your style would
be alleging this recent news item to be one itself:
"We've just learned that some flares are many times stronger
than previously thought"
"Solare flares were already the biggest explosions in the solar
system-and this discovery makes them even bigger"
"About 1 in 7 flares experience an "aftershock""
"We call it the 'late phase flare'"
"The energy in the late phase flare can exceed the energy of the
primary flare by as much as a factor of four"
(9.19.11 @ science.nasa.gov/science-news/)
Never bring emotional prattle to a reason and experience fight.
This thread is testament to the result. Thank you for the
documentation.
Nick| 9.20.11 @ 5:39AM
Buzz B.,
"Your tin foil conspiracy crowd awaits your return to the
Mothership."
This, from the same guy who also wrote this: "That's
exactly the strategy of the ExxonMobils [sic] of the
world."
What size is your tinfoil hat, conspiracy nut? Did ExxonMobile
also kill the scientist who invented an engine that runs on
water?
Nick| 9.20.11 @ 5:43AM
p.s. Disregard the [sic] in the second
quotation. I spelled it wrong. It just didn't look correct as I
typed it. Bad editing on my part.
My point still stands, though.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:42PM
jack- If you look at something and see it as being blue, but a
member of the " intelligentsia " says it is red, who do you
believe?
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:56PM
What will be the next government scare tactic, bodily functions
done at the wrong time of day?, who knows!
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:57PM
Buzz- Guns are good, they helped build this country.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 5:14PM
buzzz-
"(7) The low level of the initial tax would not dramatically
change behavior (at least not as much as many believe is
needed)."
-------------------------------------------------------
Thank you for proving my point.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 5:16PM
I believe I will fire up the charcoal tonight but before that,
go do some off roading in my V-8 4x4,I love America.
Dick Nome| 9.19.11 @ 9:25PM
Be sure you consume some high gas quotient legumes with the
animal flesh you sacrifice on the pit. Have a blast.
john| 9.19.11 @ 5:17PM
I don't mind Obama but I can't stand Greenies. Environmentalism
has never been about any environment, neither concerned for humans
nor for the ecology as a whole. It is an anti-modern movement, just
like Jihadist Islam, seeking to return all (except the activist
class I suppose) to a medieval standard of freedom and of living.
In fact there is only one Jihad on the other, Enemy, side in the
current Fourth World war, for the Anti-modern Jihad has Greenie and
Islamic wings, as well as a wing for every other religion or
Fascist ideology known to mankind.
Why else do we get so-called environmentalist policy doubling
the price of the world's corn thus starving the poor; poisoning the
soil and water of the Corn Belt, and creating an enormous dead zone
in the Gulf of Mexico, worse than 1,000 oil spills? And that's just
Ethanol...which also consumes billions in direct and indirect
subsidies.
And on a lighter note, we have light bulbs and flush toilets
that don't light and don't flush. The list is endless.
I think repealing the N.E.P.A. and abolishing the EPA would be
good starts, plus repeal of the Endangered Species Act and passage
of a new statute prohibiting people with merely an ideological
interest in a matter from filing any lawsuit. Then perhaps we might
discharge all known Environmentalists from employment at any
university, college, school, or other publicly funded job of any
kind.
These people are enemies of America, as evil as Osama Bin Laden
and ten times as dangerous, and they should meet Bin Laden's
fate.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 5:21PM
Then I see you hate America.
Paul from SA| 9.19.11 @ 5:24PM
Just like the animal rights activists. They don't care about
animals suffering, they just want to control humans.
If they really cared, they should be protesting lions and hyenas
and sharks and birds and ants, and trying to protect the impalas
and other prey from being eaten alive.
Paul from SA| 9.19.11 @ 5:22PM
The bad news for Friedman and AlGore is that fewer and fewer
people are believing this global warming nonsense. People are
finally hearing the other side.
I don't know how these AGW people can preach to us with a
straight face. Friedman's main house is the size of a mall. One of
his libraries is larger than most people's homes. His Co2 footprint
is equal to billions of people. 99% if his inherited wealth could
be donated to the poor and he could still live like a king, spewing
CO2 like it's going out of style.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 5:29PM
It's called socialism.
HiHoSilver| 9.19.11 @ 5:29PM
I think that the author makes some good points, and I hope the
numbers given and references made are done fairly. I'm sure there
is a great deal of climate mongering that occurs which is not based
as much on data as it is on fashion and feeling.
I would take issue with the author on what he is saying about
the green left using carbon to try and take over peoples' lives or
take a larger share of the economic pie. It sounds like a
conspiracy theory to me. (i.e. the left will say whatever they have
to to get control of your money) Some of the climate folks may be
wrong or misguided, but I find it a little improbable that they are
simply using this as vehicle (a low emission vehicle of course :-)
) for a political agenda which has nothing to do with the
environment. I think that most of them actually do believe
anthropogenic carbon dioxide and other GHGs are destroying the
planet. I would suggest attacking their argument without so much
attacking their motives. That is very hard to do with certainty
unless someone explicitly states their motivation.
I don't have time for a long answer at this point, but I would
suggest to you that if Socialist International supports a carbon
tax, then there's something more to this than environmentalism.
a couple of quotes:
"carbon tax revenues could be returned to the public through
dividends or progressive tax-shifting"
"The argument has also been made that a carbon tax applied globally
offers the better prospect for bridging the current division
between developed and developing countries. The idea would be to
try to put the same price on carbon everywhere and in the most
direct way possible. The tax could be adjusted annually by a global
body possibly similar in structure and intent to the international
climate/environmental court discussed in this report. In line with
the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities,
developing countries that commit to a carbon tax could receive a
percentage of the carbon tax revenues from developed countries to
help fund technology transfers, forest preservation and adaptation
to already ongoing climate change. "
And here's a good one:
“A climate change response must have at its heart a redistribution
of wealth and resources,” said Emma Brindal, a climate justice
campaigner coordinator for Friends of the Earth. http://epw.senate.gov/public/i.....59494b48a6
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 6:22PM
Why do we have a tax system that taxes (penalizes) things that
are good for society, like working (the income tax), creating jobs
(the corporate tax), buying things (sales tax) and owning property
(real estate tax)? Why shouldn't we tax things that actually cost
society money?
HoHo is right. Impinging motives is a very weak logical
argument. You attacked Friedman for the same thing.
Actually, it's not weak. It's very important when it comes to
matters of politics and economics to understand what someone's
motives are. This is quite different from science where motives
should be irrelevant (but clearly aren't in this particular area of
scientific discussion.)
You have the beginning of a point with your question about
taxes, but you lose it when you assume that CO2 emissions "cost
society money". I simply don't agree with your premise.
Furthermore, even if I did agree, you have to ask "compared to
what?" Analysis of Waxman-Markey, for example, suggests that it
would impact climate by less than 1/10th of a degree (C) by the
middle of the century at a truly massive economic cost.
Here's Heritage's assessment of the costs. Even if you want to
divide by 2, or by 10!, they're far far too expensive for any
potential benefit. http://www.heritage.org/resear.....man-markey
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 7:21PM
The National Academy of Sciences has estimated the costs to
society from burning fossil fuels is $120 billion per year, and
that is NOT counting the effects of climate change. http://www8.nationalacademies......rdID=12794
I personally think Waxman-Markey is a beast. Though I support it
if the alternative is nothing, I don't love it.
\Three things in response to your particular point >> (1)
anything we do in the U.S. is only going to have a limited effect.
We need global action especially with the direction China and the
other BRIC countries are heading. But that's not an excuse for
doing nothing. We'll never be able to convince another country if
we don't get our own house in order.
(2) Of course given the warming in the pipeline, any actions we
take now aren't going to have a huge effect for decades. All the
more reason to get started now, I would argue.
(3) Many believe the emission-reduction goals of W-M were too
modest, especially the scientists.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 7:56PM
And how many economists do they have on staff at the National
Academy of Sciences?
By the way, they seem to be curiously silent on the subject of
the economic BENEFITS to society of burning fossil fuels. Perhaps
its because they're so enormous as to be incalculable. In either
event, it seems rather disengenuous of them to present the gross,
rather than the net, impact.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 8:20PM
Trinacria -- Respectfully, you are blinded by ideology. No
matter how much evidence you're presented, you cling to your
preconceived ideas. The National Academies is an independent group
of experts, and it was actually their National Research Council arm
of the Academies that did this report. And yes, it does include
economists.
Trinacria| 9.20.11 @ 2:05PM
Buzz,
Thank you for your respectful reply. With equal respect, I'm
quite familiar with the National Academy of Sciences; the question
was rhetorical and intended to point out what I regard as a curious
limitation in the analysis.
Any economic analysis of the impact of a given phenomenon must
deal in terms of the net effect (financial cost vs. financial
benefit); limiting one's analysis to the cost without consideration
of the quantifiable benefits precludes meaningful assessment of the
total economic impact. If you'll pardon the admittedly simple (and
strained) analogy, this would be like adding up the annual costs of
my investments and drawing a conclusion regarding the financial
impact without considering the returns on the investment. Of course
the cost will seem high when there's no counterbalancing
benefit.
Surely you don't think this is an unreasonable expectation?
chemman| 9.19.11 @ 8:03PM
What exactly are you doing personally to stop sucking on the
teat of big energy? Don't talk about what others believe or what
you say you believe. Tell be how you walk the talk.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 8:14PM
Not enough chemman, I don't do nearly enough.
Bruce Berger| 9.19.11 @ 9:24PM
Let's assume there are two different people on opposite sides of
the globe, emitting the exact same amount of CO2. Even in your view
of the world, I think it is safe to assume that any negative
effects of their respective activities cancel each other out. So,
what is the point of taxing each person, when their externalities
cancel out? In a two-person world of the type I have just described
there would be no need for a carbon tax.
Now, two people with two different carbon emissions may
necessitate a carbon tax to compensate the lower user for the
negative effect on his/her existence from the greater use of the
other. In such an example, potentially a case could be made to use
the tax proceeds to compensate one human from the excesses of
another.
However, I see very few people advocating the use of a carbon
tax for such a purpose. Instead, in almost every carbon tax
scenario that I have seen the carbon tax proceeds seem to be
targeted to be the property of the state.
It is just a trojan horse to increase the size of the state.
That is why I have a problem with the carbon tax.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 9:48PM
Collins (R) and Cantwell (D) proposed (in a short 39 pages) a
cap-and-dividend bill that would return 75% of revenue collected to
the public in the form of lower taxes. Murkowski (R) almost saved
the Kerry-Lieberman-Graham bill last year by attempting to
transform it into a revenue-neutral carbin tax. Corker and
Alexander, both GOP senators from Tennessee, have both supported
versions of a revenue-neutral carbon tax. Al Gore thinks we should
reduce the income tax rate by precisely the same about we tax
carbon ("tax what you burn, not what you earn"). And my proposal is
closer to that of James Hansen, clean and simple revenue-neutral
carbon tax where revenue collected is distributed directly back to
the public. Those are just the ones off the top of my head, but the
idea of a revenue-neutral carbon tax has been floated by many.
Bruce Berger| 9.19.11 @ 10:02PM
Yet, the bill that came closest to passing was the one where
proceeds would have gone to the state. Watch what people do, not
what they say.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:46PM
I'm not going to defend Waxman-Markey, because I thought it was
a monstrosity myself. But 80% of the allowances would have been
given away for free, and the bulk of the collected revenue was to
go to impacted consumers and displaced workers. At least that's my
recollection, I haven't studied that bill for awahile since it dies
in the Senate last Fall.
George S| 9.19.11 @ 10:26PM
What Al Gore thinks is immaterial as long as the 16th Amendment
is in place. Won't be too long before we have both a carbon tax and
an income tax.
And by the way, why would government go through all the trouble
to collect a tax from one end and give it back in the other?
Answer: because they will give it back to political interests.
We are not stupid: any extra money that comes out of our pockets
will wind up in someone else's who didn't work for it creating a
good or a service WE NEED. That is the end game here and we are not
buying this happy bullshit anymore.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:47PM
The government should go through the trouble as a way to
disincentivize fossil fuel use and internalize some of the societal
costs that fossil fuel combustion causes.
George S| 9.19.11 @ 10:59PM
That power was never given to the federal government by our
Constitution. Fossil fuels are taxed heavily but we still use them
because without energy we starve, freeze and become immobilized. Is
that a 'societal cost' of less concern than a warmer climate?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:10PM
I'm not sure about your Constitution, but mine gives Congress
the power to lat and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises
...
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:10PM
"lay" and collect
william| 9.19.11 @ 11:35PM
I think George has a point. I've read your posts on a carbon tax
and they are reasonable -- which isn't to say I fully agree with
them. But George is right, we 've become a society whose politics
runs on "soft" corruption: the implicit understanding that if I
direct government money to you, you will support me for office, by
vote if not also by contribution. The Foundinf fathers believed
this was corruption justifying ( in part) a revolution.
william| 9.19.11 @ 11:35PM
I think George has a point. I've read your posts on a carbon tax
and they are reasonable -- which isn't to say I fully agree with
them. But George is right, we 've become a society whose politics
runs on "soft" corruption: the implicit understanding that if I
direct government money to you, you will support me for office, by
vote if not also by contribution. The Foundinf fathers believed
this was corruption justifying ( in part) a revolution.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:43PM
I agree with your comments on politics and government
corruption. In fact, I think it is precisely that corruption that
has prevented any meaningful action on climate change. I'm not sure
why that prevents us from writing a law that specifically directs
where collected money will be spent.
William| 9.19.11 @ 6:50PM
I don't know if you're right, but you deserve credit for hanging
in there.
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:37PM
Whoever needed to fart on this blog, please do so. The gas is
already there, and ya kanna break the laws of biophysics, man.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 5:41PM
Progs-They can't even predict tomorrows weather and you believe
them about the weather for the next several years, WOW.
gary| 9.19.11 @ 6:37PM
Does anyone remember who it was that made this joke?
In twenty years, Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" will be the "Reefer
Madness" of our time.
I must admit that I was unaware of the fallout from and furor
over Spencer's article which was the subject of the Forbes article
I linked to.
While it's certainly not shown that Spencer was wrong, I would
have used another example of recent science which calls into
question the alarmists' theories.
For example, recent work at CERN also raises interesting
questions about climate science...and CERN is staying far away from
the politics: http://www.idealtaxes.com/post3425.shtml
Anyway, using a piece which has that level of question about it
is an unnecessary distraction to my arguments, so for those who
agree with my take on the issue overall, I do apologize for that
oversight. And I thank those who pointed out the controversy to
me.
An honest mistake, I would never impugn your motives. But it
does show you should read more than one side of the debate. And at
least you didn't overstate the results of the CERN experiments, as
I've seen many skeptics do.
As a capitalist, I would have to say, more power to him. But,
isn't it a bit strange that these climate agitators like Friedman
and Algore have not carbon footprints, but HUGE carbon footprints?
After all, he could live in an apartment in NYC and take public
transportation to work without sacrificing himself. That is what
NYC is set up for!
On climate change itself. If it is a science, can't we have a
citation of the paper or papers that are key to this argument, so
we can all read them? Perhaps the math would be too difficult for a
lot of us to understand, but at least we could see what the
reasoning and the data are. And even complicated math one can work
one's way through in many cases.
BenzieBen| 9.19.11 @ 9:01PM
The author points out that our atmosphere is approximately 78%
nitrogen and 21% oxygen. Of the remaining 1%, more than 90% is
Argon and .0016% is carbon dioxide. What he does not mention that
Friedman's columns about science consist of 32% bad logic and 68%
fecal matter.
Friedman is well prepared to lecture us on high-level science
because his major was Mediterranean Studies.
Ross goes on to explain that, because the "greenhouse effect" is
logarithmic, an additional 1% increase in carbon dioxide has less
impact on temperatures than the previous 1% increase.
Similarly, each column authored by Friedman has less impact on
the American public than the previous one.
Interstellar Bill| 9.19.11 @ 9:49PM
Buzz is typical of Warmistas who incessantly recite how the
warmer air 'holds more water'.
Rather, physical law merely says that it CAN hold more water,
but whether it does or not is an entirely empirical matter, not the
syllogism so deceitfully smuggled in by this tiresome mantra.
(Study the entry for 'Data' in an encylopedia.)
Buzz, go check the real world, where absolute humidity has been
CONSTANT. This is because rising CO2 reduces transpiration
water-losses, so that global relative humidity has declined from
what is was in colder prior decades.
Also, did you know the world's deserts are shrinking due to rising
CO2?
See, the planet is already healing!
Once you strip away the bogus extreme-weather accusations, all
the Warmistas have left is their by-now-hoary sea-level screams.
Too bad it's declining. (Warmistas call it a mere pause.)
I only want one thing from the learned Buzz:
Name your AGW falsification-criterion, which every theory must have
if it is truly scientific.
I propose an unmistakeable Little Ice Age by 2020. (Check the early
1300's.)
What say you, Buzz?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:27PM
You are of course correct Interstellar Bill, that the statement
that 'warmer air holds more water' is imprecise. It's a shorthand,
just like GHGs "trap heat" when actually they absorb and reflect
radiant energy. But I think it's pretty well-settled that water
vapor is a positive feedback, both in theory and in observation.
See http://www.nasa.gov/topics/ear.....ming.html. As
the temperature of the atmosphere rises, more water is evaporated
from ground storage (rivers, oceans, reservoirs, soil). Because the
air is warmer, the absolute humidity can be higher (which is where
the shorthand comes from that the air is able to 'hold' more water
when it's warmer), leading to more water vapor in the atmosphere.
As a greenhouse gas, the higher concentration of water vapor is
then able to absorb more thermal IR energy radiated from the Earth,
thus further warming the atmosphere. But it is certainly true that
measurements of absolute humidity are hard to come by (I'm not
aware of your studies showing that it has remained constant).
I am aware of studies that suggest AGW is causing deserts to
shrink, and others reaching a contrary conclusion. It is a
legitimate area of uncertainty.
C'mon, sea levels have risen steadily for three decades. The
fact that they've taken a slight downturn the last six months is
most likely attributable to la nina, not any change in the
long-term trend.
More fundamentally, the fact that not every prediction of every
article over the past two decades has come true does not logically
refute AGW theory. A great many projections have come true, and a
great many are even more severe than predicted. Certainly, all the
precise impacts and the speed at which they come to fruition
continue to be matters of scientific inquiry.
I've seen this falsification stuff on various blogs recently. I
understand it's part of the last step of the scientific process,
and that AGW doesn't fit nicely within some of that process due to
the absence of a 'control' earth where all the components of the
climate can be tested. But the bottom line, if we have several
years of temps back down at average 20th century levels without any
natural forcing as an explanation, then I would say AGW theory has
been falsified.
Interstellar Bill| 9.20.11 @ 2:48AM
Buzz
Your phrase is telling:
'without any natural forcing as an explanation'
sure sounds like a weasel-out
(what would an un-natural negative forcing be?)
Or perhaps your're thinking of cosmic-ray induced albedo
increases.
From they way the Warmistas react to that idea you can be sure they
regard it
as un-natural. Do you?
You can look on WUWT for the humidity facts.
What you implicitly admit is that any immanent cooling, however
you explain it, means that CO2 is relativly weak.
Don't you agree that a doubling-sensitivity of only 1 deg C
would falsify AGW?
And the sea-level decline is older than 6 months.
None of the doomsayers predicted it.
If it continues for 10 more years,
will that falsify AGW?
30 more years?
Sherlock| 9.19.11 @ 10:03PM
I do hope some of the green people read this article. they need
to educate themselves about their religion. Stop reading the NYT,
because it is rare to find intelligence in the articles there.
Liberalism is leaving our society, but some will hold on to it,
even if it means being buried with it.
Mertsj| 9.19.11 @ 10:27PM
What do you think of the blood letters of G. Washington's
day???
That's exactly the way you global warming freaks are going to be
remembered.
Mertsj| 9.19.11 @ 10:30PM
And furthermore, men always look for a god. Having abandoned the
God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, they cling to global warming as
their idol of choice and think they are enlightened.
I mostly agree with this article, but will correct a minor
point. The absolute quantity of CO2 is not the issue - it is the
change in relative quantities. Thus the "problem" (if there is one)
is the ratio 390 to 320 - not the absolute magnitudes of those
numbers.
But the other point is that the ratio has to be measured
logarithmically. Thus one worries about increases by factors of 10,
not by only a few. For example, a hydrogen cyanide concentration in
the parts per trillion would probably not be harmful. But increase
that to parts per billion and folks might start to panic.
Justin| 9.19.11 @ 10:58PM
Great Article!!!
Thank you for not just pointing out how stupid the
fear-mongering, left-wing,
let's-create-green-jobs-even-if-it-makes-zero-sense crowd is.
Also, thanks for the great links to the other articles and real
science that backs your viewpoints!
"I'm not sure what "plan" you're referring to that the Dems want
to pass with respect to CO2. If you're referring to cap-and-trade
(a la Waxman-Markey), then I'd remind you that was the system that
Bush Sr adopted to deal with SOx and acid rain, and that Bush Jr.
tried to adopt for NOx and SO2 (before a court struck it down). It
is also the plan that McCain had been introducing for yearsin the
Senate before he got.."
Nothing like strawmen to move things along. We're not talking
about, poisonous aresols but CO2. Last time I checked CO2 was not
considered a poison. Stay on track; stay focused. I know it is
difficult, but even Progressives can do it.
Taxing CO2 is akin to taking nitrogen in our atmosphere, or
water vapor. But, you must hand it to Progressives. They are very
creative in thier search to tap into new revenue streams.
Rick Smith | 9.20.11 @ 11:21AM
I must while I simply doubted all the crap in & around
global warming or climate change or whatever name they come up with
- I just trusted the fact that anything algore says must be a lie
and directed towards the moron's that surround him. I am thankfully
for this article pointing out something I hadn't thought of and
that being the air being more nitrogen & oxygen than anything
else. So we're talking about less than 1% of our atmosphere - truly
amazing. My other thought was I had learned in grade school we are
closer to the sun in the winter yet colder climate prevails while
being closer to the sun - so I kind of thought that perhaps the sun
actually had something to do with our warming and cooling. But
there I go again!
dw| 9.20.11 @ 6:39PM
The global warming hoax is nothing more that a front for the
socialist continued assault on capitalism and the destruction of
the United States economy. Those who support it are either inter
connected to this effort or the usual dupes conned into taking the
field on behalf of our enemy.
1.) In 1986 Patrick Moore, one of the main founders of
Greenpeace quit the group citing the take over of the enviormental
movement by the neo marxist, who due to fall of the Soviet Union
needed another vehicle through which they could continue their war
against capitalism. Using enviormental green language to mask their
real objectives marxist manipulate scores of naive dimwits in their
effort to achieve the destruction of America.
2.) In 2009 the "Climatgate" scandal erupted, which involved at
least 2 prominent AGW scientist Michael Mann and Phil Jones, whos
emails were leaked to the public. They showed that the two of them
deleted files that had been requested under the Freedom of
Information Act concerning a U.N. climate change report. Also it
was proven that Mann's Hockey Stick graph, which was extensively
used by Al Gore to promote his agenda, purposely left out the
warming that occured during the Medieval Period which would counter
their claim that it is the advent of the industrial age that has
caused man made warming.
3.) More than 31,000 scientist, including over 9,000 PHD's have
signed a petition rejecting AGW. Pretty sure that diffuses the
claim that the science is settled.
In fact recently Nobel Prize winner for Physics, Dr. Ivar Giaever
resigned from the APS and stated in his letter of resignation, "
The claim is that temperture has changed from 288. t0 288.8 degrees
kelvin in about 150 years, which if true means to me that the
temperture has been amazingly stable and both human health and
happiness have definitely improved in this "warming period".
4.) Throughout the 20th and into the beginning of the 21st
century CO2 emmisions have steadily risen while temperture has not
steadily increased. Surface temperture in the 1930's were higher
than today and from the 40s through the 70s tempertures declined,
which led to the alarmist "chicken littles" to declare we were on
the verge of a new ice age otherwise known as "global cooling".
5.) CO2 accounts for .039% of all atmospheric molecules.
- Humans and their activity account for only 3% emmissions each
year.
- Since 1998 surface tempertures have declined
- Over the last 150 years avg. tempertures has risen .8 degrees
kelvin
There is much more detail and additional information that
absolutely disputes man made global warming and shows it for what
it really is--An on going attempt to destroy capitalism and by
extension America by the neo marxist socilaist left.
Putting aside the Eduard de ROT-child 'sourced',
Al Gore fronted, carbon tax, that's to be paid to
the ROT-child owned Bank of International Settlements in
'BASE--ALL' Switzerland
----EVEN, for a moment, putting aside the
awesome Globalization RED China set up and TREASON OP
NOW ----------ONE AND ALL
--look up into those late summer skies
all knitted up with CHEM-trails, take a good
deep whiff, and think--------
This global warming conspiracy needs to be put in perspective to
be properly understood. This far-left attack by government-paid
drones started in the 1970′s with the global cooling scam: we
should disarm our nuclear bombers and fill them with soot to be
spread over the poles and so prevent those new glaciers from
descending south and crushing the New York skyscrapers to dust.
When that did not work the same fakers invented the global warming
hoax in the 1990′s; we should nationalize all industries and
organize a UN-sponsored world socialist government based on “social
justice” with the fakers in charge. What with 12 years of
substantial cooling the fakers switched to the climate change
flimflam in the 2000′s; so whatever happens we should…see above
under the global warming hoax. And now we are faced with the cap
& trade power grab – but the aim is the same as above. Our
socialists, marxists, communists, Hollywood stars, university
professors in social and political “sciences”, and
environmentalists are all clamoring for action while spurring
President Obama ("Tomorrow the oceans will stop rising and the
planet will start healing") and his 35 czars/komissars to undertake
immediate measures to save the planet – with the same aims as
described above.
In the meantime our Mian Stream Media are unanimous in spreading
this criminal propaganda daily; the ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NPR,
the NY Times, the Washington Post, etc. drive this drivel daily.
What is totally ignored are the detailed descriptions of faked
data, skewed computer programs, politically revised conclusions by
the UN-sponsored far-left clique of biased scientists – all
government-paid drones that no private enterprise would hire.
Another thing ignored is the “Global Warming Petition” (see
Internet) where 31,487 independent US scientists (including 9,029
of them with PhD degrees) dispute decisively the findings of the
UN-sponsored panel; also ignored is the “Manhattan Declaration on
Climate Change” (see also Internet) where a smaller number of
competent world scientists, about 712, including 142 pure
climatologists, state the same – i.e., that the man-caused
catastrophic global warming is a farce. The books by Christopher
Horner, Robert Carter, and AW Montford describing the lies, fakes,
phony data, opposite conclusions, redacting by UN political hacks,
reverse graphs, etc., have exposed this far-left propaganda in
painful detail.
In the case of the above mentioned Petition, several
"environmentalists" had submitted phony names with phony
credentials in order to sabotage that effort. It took several years
of painstaking and expensive effort (we contributed a lot of
private money for that) to clean up the list from those saboteurs
and verify all academic and professional data of the
signatories.
To put this whole conspiracy in terms of numbers, let me say that
the projected world-threatening increase of carbon dioxide of 100
ppm (parts per million) by the end of this century would increase
the termal absorptivity of the atmosphere by one-eighth of one
percent; that is the definition of something totally negligible. On
the other hand the sun cycles of cooling and heating are thousands
of times more powerful with regard to the carbon dioxide in the
air; when the sun is cold the oceans absorb many millions of tons
of it; and when the sun heats up the oceans release the carbon
dioxide in quantities thousands of times bigger than anything the
mankind could produce. To illustrate this point in more accessible
terms to somebody who who is not a climatologist or a scientist or
an engineer; the argument of catastrophic anthropogenic
(human-caused) global warming issued by our panic driven
socialist/marxist government-paid hacks is like saying that a burp
of a lonely wolf in Alaska will transform Florida into a
Sahara-like desert - immediately!
As for that bloviating gasbag Al Gore and for Dr. Mann who inverted
cause and effect in his "studies" - they should be brought to the
The International Court in The Hague on charges of crimes against
humanity. And now let us add the name of komrad Krugman to this
list of international criminals.
Marc Jeric (signatory of both documents referenced above)
Marc Jeric| 9.21.11 @ 7:07PM
Sorry - I meant Friedman; but keep Krugman as well in the
criminal group.
POST American| 9.22.11 @ 12:50AM
-----------SOBERING BOTTOMLESS LINE----------
Forget the inspid Rockefellow front op
Thomas Friedman.
----GET INTO Alan Watt and 'Cutting Through
the Matrix'
CHECK OUT his older shows from 2006/7/8.
He goes all into the, then, coming collapse
and RED China TREASON OP finale.
He even delves into the likelihood of Japan
being taken down by a HAARP sourced seismic
event ---and DEPOP OP combo.
Brian Mc| 9.19.11 @ 6:30AM
Very sobering numbers and concisely constructed, worthy of spreading around the web. If I posted to FB though, I would be impressed if even a handful of 'friends' would bother to read it. And that is a shameful indictment of the true state of the Republic.
Timothy L. Pennell| 9.19.11 @ 12:17PM
Look at the Environmental Flat Earthers. The people who SIT IN TREES, so as to prevent them from being cut down. The Great Unwashed. (By that, I mean, THEIR HAIR) Their Hair is always dirty. Their Clothes are always dirty. And they smell.
Because they don't bathe, and they smell so bad, they don't fit in, and they need SOMEWHERE to go.
So, they sit in trees. The work is easy. I'm sure they get food. And the Rent for the branch, is well within their means.
What could be better?
I've explained the MORON'S affinity with the "Movement", but, what about the IDIOTS of the World? The Thomas Friedmans.
How can someone who's so clean, has a nice Apartment, and THINKS he's so smart, align himself with the Dirty, Stupid people who live in Trees?
I think that he's trying to latch on to something. A Cause. Something that he can believe in.
Does he believe in GOD?
I don't know. Does BILL CLINTON count? Does KEYNES? OBAMA?
Why does he believe a guy - AL GORE - who has made Hundreds of Millions selling Carbon Credits, through his Environmental HEDGE FUND? Aren't Millionaires and Billionaires BAD? Aren't Hedge Funds even WORSE?
What about Al Gores huge New House, on the BEACH? Didn't he tell us that the Oceans would rise 100 Ft. if we didn't give him all of our Money, right now?
Or, did Obama really lower the Ocean Levels? (Like he said he would)
And, what's up with all of his Private Jet travel? Are Private Jets GOOD, now?
Why do the Thomas Friedmans let themselves become the USEFUL IDIOTS of one Stupid Cause, after another?
Are they just STUPID?
Was P.T. Barnum, right?
Or, is it that they're WATERMELLONS?
Green on the outside.
RED on the inside.
I'm thinking.......All of the above.
mike| 9.19.11 @ 6:31AM
This sort of example, while dramatic, confuses a short-term situation with a long-term phenomenon.
http://www.besthandbagsshopping.com
http://www.winter-brands.com
MOS was 71331| 9.19.11 @ 10:58AM
Disregard mike's post. It's just advertising.
daddio| 9.19.11 @ 11:35AM
Check your computer for viruses now.
Shamus| 9.19.11 @ 7:07AM
I disagree with Friedman's notion that government is the driving force behind the success of the US economy. In fact, I would argue that it was only during periods where government was at least partially restrained that the US made progress.
oldfart| 9.19.11 @ 7:11AM
Agreed - the best that Government can do, financially, is cause no harm.
Mike Hawk| 9.19.11 @ 7:45AM
Friedman is a Socialist, what would you expect from him?? Free markets are anathama to him.
mames| 9.19.11 @ 12:07PM
Friedman is a lazy pseudo intellectual who has been made a king only by his fellow intellectual pygmies. I am confident he has added tons to the carbon "problem" if for no other reason than hauling his fat ass around the globe and his high intake of calories. Go sell crazy some place else we're all full up here.
Pseudo Intellectual| 9.19.11 @ 3:17PM
HEY! I take offense at that remark. Freidman is most assuredly NOT one of us!
By the way, anyone else see the knee slapping irony in the fact that this pompous "green advocate" makes his living by dissiminating his thoughts via a medium that requires mass deforestation to produce it?
Typical freakin' "Do as I say, not as I do" liberal...
play nice| 9.19.11 @ 4:05PM
"Friedman is a Socialist" - by marriage a very wealthy socialist.
Vote Loud| 9.21.11 @ 11:13PM
Follow the money...
This man is all about HIS wallet and access to the Democrat structure, and the power they can accumulate.
A classic example of why radical "Progressives" (Marxists) like him and the rags and networks that they work for are losing readership and audience.
Yawn!
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:07PM
Yup. He's a gold-digger in multiple ways. And an idiot.
Merlin| 9.19.11 @ 7:19AM
I know that one observation is not science, but getting plants in the garden and orchard to grow like weeds is not difficult and an increase in plant growth is expected if CO2 levels increase. So, let's tax those who are not doing their part to increase carbon emissions.
oldfart| 9.19.11 @ 7:32AM
The Mantra in the 1970's was to plant 10 trees for every person in your household. Those 10 trees would supply each person with lifetime of O2 and tie up TONS of CO2 for centuries. The problem with that it is difficult for the Government to regulate and therefore TAX this kind of activity – so it is ignored today. However, it is still the single most effective way for the average Joe and Jane to make an impact. The exhaust from cars in the '60s and 70's was downright nasty and I can remember smog alerts in Virginia from car exhaust alone on hot August days. The air was so nasty you could see it. That does not happen anymore – I think sometimes we forget how far we have come. Today it seems we are trying separate fly feces from pepper. In business it is called the 'law of diminishing returns' where you are spending more with insignificant results.
Alert1201| 9.19.11 @ 9:21AM
I remember as a kid (late 60s) we had a Pfizer plant that constantly reeked of rotten eggs. When we drove by it my sister and I would playful fall down on the floor gagging and holding our noses. Now you hardly know the place is there. I also remember rivers and streams with a perennial layer of film and scum floating on them and places where you could not fish where now you can even eat the shellfish. On the mouth of the Thames river in New London CT there was a celebration in the mid 80s because the first swan had been seen a few miles up the river where one had not been seen in any living man's lifetime.
Things have gotten much better, but that does not help the envio-wacko's agenda so they are forgotten.
MOS was 71331| 9.19.11 @ 11:01AM
Don't worry about it. If there's more CO2 in the air, plants will automatically respond by growing more and replacing the added CO2 with O2.
daddio| 9.19.11 @ 11:40AM
Why does this seem so hard for people to understand?
JB| 9.19.11 @ 4:24PM
Please, daddio and MOS: We all know that is patently not true. The plants will all burn up or be drowned in the super mega droughts and floods that will encompass the Earth, should the planet's mean temperature rise to levels that they were just a few centuries ago. (Wait, what did I say? We all know the Earth has never been warmer than it is today!) Just ask Tom Friedman.
oldfart| 9.19.11 @ 7:23AM
One key point these people seem to be ignoring is that according to NASA's data the rate of sea level change in decreasing. Also it appears that some data was modified to account to the 'rebounding' of the land masses since the end of the last ice age. Well if the land is going up, including that land below sea level, would it not only cause the sea level to rise as well? DUH? And the sole cause of this is a .039% change in CO2? Do you know why water vapor is excluded? It the single biggest factor in warming. This whole thing is one massive scam.
Rob Schapiro| 9.19.11 @ 7:33AM
Dont get caught up trying to understand the minds of warmists. A lot of people made a very good living perpetuating human caused global warming. They want the good times to keep rolling. In short, follow the money.
daddio| 9.19.11 @ 11:41AM
As in everything-follow the money!!!
play nice| 9.19.11 @ 4:08PM
tulips, any one?
Norbert| 9.19.11 @ 7:36AM
Never heard of Friedman. He may be the enviro-faker you claim. What 'd like to know is - what qualification in any of the geo-sciences do you possess? I ask because I'd like to know how much credibility to your view that global warming isn't man-made.
db| 9.19.11 @ 7:53AM
Hey Dilbert, don't you recognize liberal clap-trap when you hear it?
RustyG| 9.19.11 @ 7:58AM
You should get out more Norbert. Friedman is a pulitzer winning author for the NY Times. He studied at all the same Environmental Science programs as Mr. Kaminsky....... namely none. Mr. Friedman however spews his ignorance twice weekly in the supposed "paper of record" so every lefty can and will repeat it. Mr. Kaminsy needs to geo-science degree to point out the failed logic and inconsistency in the writings of Friedman .....if you would bother to read the article.
RustyG| 9.19.11 @ 8:01AM
Should read "needs NO geo-science degree"..
The Bruce| 9.19.11 @ 11:01PM
Why even get into this discussion? Norbert is the same person, twenty years from now, that'll be trying to convince us that we're all about to die in an ice age due to global cooling -- and I'm sure he'll find a way to make it man made.
In other words, in twenty years, it'll be the 1970s all over again.
JP| 9.19.11 @ 8:43AM
Norbert,
Perhaps you should ask Dr Kevin Trenbeth. He holds a PHD in Atmospheric Sciences, and is currently a big-wig at NCAR. What is interesting is what people like him say off-line. One of the most publicized emails from the Climategate publications came from Trenbeth. He emailed Dr Michael Man and a few other activists in the UK. He asked in exasperation, "What happened to the lost heat content?" It seems thier models over-estimated the amount of heat Greenhouse gases in fact trapped. Just a few weeks ago, his question was answered by the folks at CERN. It appears much more incoming solar radiation is reflected out to space than the experts calculated.
To rub salt in the wound, 2 NASA scientists, Dr Spencer and Dr Christy published a study last month in which they theorized that changes in long term cloud cover variations (especially in the Tropics) have a much more profound effect on Climate than the Alarmists realized. And what did our highly credentialed, high respected, and very well paid Dr Trenbeth do? Why, he pressured the editor of the technical journal which published the paper to resign. That's how our degreed experts do science.
Ross Kaminsky| 9.19.11 @ 9:21AM
Norbert,
My degree is not in science. That said, I have read books, many papers, and been to dozens of lectures by climate scientists, and it is clear to me -- not least because of Climategate -- that what is going on with "climate change" is not science.
It is a combination of a few other things: religion, anti-capitalism, and money-grab by grant-chasing scientists and organizations.
Furthermore, the DATA simply don't support the alarmists' claims. Their models absolutely CANNOT explain the flat temperatures of the last decade.
The primary reason, as I understand it, is that all the alarmist models make one particular kind of assumption, namely one of positive feedback. That is, they assume that a warmer planet generates things such as more cloud cover which then serve to warm the planet further.
However, there is much more credible actual EVIDENCE rather than the alarmists' theories that the climate system has negative feedback.
The story I linked to about NASA satellite data is extremely important, by the way.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 9:59AM
'The story I linked to about NASA satellite data is extremely important, by the way.'
Er, no it's not, Ross. The paper was by Roy Spencer, and it's been shown almost immediately to have no merit and is full of errors - and the editor of the journal has resigned for allowing such an awful paper to be published.
See:
http://www.skepticalscience.co.....dback.html
JP| 9.19.11 @ 11:19AM
Jack,
Pray tell what part of the paper didn't have merit? Was it Spencer's drift calculations, sensor calibrations? statististical methodolgy? What exactly did the peers of Climate Science find wrong with the study?
Offering a citation from some partisan blog no longer holds water -if it ever did. And speaking of peer review, why did Dr Roger Pielke offered this review of UAH's work over the years (including the recently finished study):
"To summarize specifically the UAH MSU dataset, it has gone through about 9 revisions (A, B, C, D, 5.0, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 – some listed in CCSP 1.1.) Two of the revisions involved changes Jim Wentz of RSS spotted, but the other seven were ones John Chrsity and Roy Spencer discovered (i.e. major ones like the spurious warming due to a change in the sensor when the satellite went in and out of sunlight).
Such corrections are what happens in the normal course of science when you are the first to build the data set and discover issues as time goes on, especially when a satellite goes through a calibration shift. Their data are publicly available and their methods published in a diverse range of peer-reviewed journals."
Peilke as well as statistical expert Steven McKintyre took skepticalscience to the woodshed over its strident ad hominem attack on Spencer.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 12:03PM
There's a very thorough roundup with links here:
http://bbickmore.wordpress.com.....y-own-data
And you can read Wolfgang Wagner's resignation editorial here:
http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/9/2002
As he says:
'Peer-reviewed journals are a pillar of modern science. Their aim is to achieve highest scientific standards by carrying out a rigorous peer review that is, as a minimum requirement, supposed to be able to identify fundamental methodological errors or false claims. Unfortunately, as many climate researchers and engaged observers of the climate change debate pointed out in various internet discussion fora, the paper by Spencer and Braswell that was recently published in Remote Sensing is most likely problematic in both aspects and should therefore not have been published.'
JP| 9.19.11 @ 1:02PM
Peer review journals in Climate Science is an incestuous joke, where climate scientists peer review eachothers studies. Not in chemistry, nor in physics or engineering does this occur. They essientially grade eachothers work. And when one steps out of line (like Wolfgang Wagner), they attack. Wagner was forced to resign.
And please, answer my initial question. Please name one major item in Spencer's paper that was so wrong? Please compare Spencer's paper to Mann, Bradley, and Hughes 1998 Climate Reconstruction paper (aka the Hockey Stick). MBH98 was also "peer reviewed". And the experts did such a fantastic job that they failed to notice huge errors in Mann's R2 verification statistics; divergence between the Stripbark Bristlecone tree-rings and local temperatures; falure of both the Monte-Carlo tests and Red Noise tests...I could go on.. but these failures in and of themselves are enough humiliate if not end the careers of most scientists in other fields. Yet. for some reason people like you ignore them and try to raise strawmen over the work of real scientists like Spencer. Spencer's biggest mistake is to publish corrections to his own work.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 1:49PM
You're wrong - the work by Mann and all the other top climate scientists has I'm afraid been on track.
I commend the site of Barry Bickmore to you (see also link I posted above). He's a geochem prof and importantly for this discussion he's a Republican and a Morman, and as he says:
'I’ve recently been involved with other scientists and scholars in Utah trying to stop the spread of outright lies, half-truths, abuses of data, and distortions about climate change. Much of this disinformation is coming from (or through) some Republican members of the Utah Legislature, and the other Republican (and some Democratic) members have swallowed it hook, line, and sinker....
'(In addition, I’m a Republican myself, and it galls me that my own party has locally fallen for a bunch of conspiracy theories and scientifically incompetent trash. In my opinion, something has to be done to save the party from disaster in the long run.)'
And of the current Spencer paper (see his Spencer section at http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/roy-spencer ):
'A new paper by Andrew Dessler shows that this is just another in a long string of Roy’s faulty claims to prove that climate sensitivity is lower than previously thought. The main problem in all of these attempts has been rampant abuse of statistics.'
HUH?| 9.19.11 @ 3:28PM
You're attempting to prove the scientific bona fides of an individual by citing the fact that he's MORMON? "Oh, yes, Barry over there believes that the Lord Himself appeared to some old coot in a barn in Utah in the 1800's and said, 'Pardon me, chap, but there's a thing or two I forgot to mention in my last best seller; I was hoping you'd be so kind as to help me set the record straight'. So, clearly, THIS is a man of unimpeachable scientific credibility."
What's next? "I commend to you the published work of the renowned scientific expert, Dr. Jim Smith, who, as further evidence of his scientific expertise, happens to be a Grand Wizard of the Order of Witchery."
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 4:00PM
I don't care what religion he is - the point is that there are some religious republicans who are part of science and not voodoo. I'll wager he doesn't believe in intelligent design either (unlike Roy Spencer).
HUH?| 9.19.11 @ 4:09PM
Sounds like you should be investing in real estate in the North and South Poles, then. Future beach front properties - you know, buy low, sell high and all that...
Of course, it might take another 100,000 years or so for your investment to mature (and that's assuming the normal cyclic pattern that has characterized global climate for the past several million years doesn't continue) - but hey, I for one admire an investor who's willing to take the long view.
JEM| 9.19.11 @ 4:38PM
Sorry folks - no point in arguing with this guy. McIntyre's and McKitrick's study on Mann's stick was devastating and it has never been refuted. I read the paper a few years ago and what was amazing was the assertion that the algorithm Mann used would create a hockey stick with essentially any dataset used.
http://climateaudit.org/ this paper discusses the errors in Spencer's recent work, the corrections already made, and essentially supports the findings, albeit realizing that there is additional study to do. It also takes a nice shot at Trenbeth for his appallingly poor attack on Spencer, as well as his general CYA activity as he realizes ("where's the heat") what he has claimed for over a decade is not supported by the science in any manner at all.
The Cloud CERN study also destroys all the models upon which the warmists were able to create fear and confusion by indicating that CO2 impact on cloud formation has been off, by a larger factor than anyone realized. In fact it may be almost meaningless. Ammonia may be a trace gas with some impact but stellar radiation and the sun's own radiation disruption seems to drive temperatures more. More study is clearly needed, but if anyone wants to say Mann's work has been validated by anyone other than someone in bed with him on the scam, you would be a liar. There is a reason UVA is fighting the FOI request from the AG of Virginia. Once it becomes apparent that Mann was actually guilty of fraud for govt funds received - because he has no real non-tampered data to support his theories - he will be facing jail time, as will Trenbeth. My guess is in the end they will just be sent to some small nothing university to live out their professional lives where they cannot do anymore harm. But what a hit to their standard of living. So, when you are cornered, fight back hard because the alternative is pretty much a non-starter from most people's perspective.
Am I saying that most warmists are evil, fraudulent hucksters, a modern day version of a snake oil salesman of older days gone by? No, but there are a small cadre of them who are - Mann and Trenbeth amongst them - and who deserve severe punishment. They wanted to kill millions in homage to the god of AGW. And I say that on the basis that their preferred remedy was to reduce GDP worldwide, which means more people on the edge of life don't make it. Jack is just someone who drank the koolaid.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 5:05PM
Accusing a scientist of deliberately falsifying data is about as serious as it gets. But your pathetic little witchhunt is old hat now as the updated models are also showing the same hockey stick effect. I would love warming to be disproven so you can get on enjoying your SUV but it's not working out that way.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:25PM
Hack
Bruce Berger| 9.19.11 @ 8:46PM
Jack,
You seem to consider yourself a man of science. That's good. Let me ask you something. Considering that the Earth is 4.6 billion years old and the industrial age has been around for only 150 years or so, wouldn't you agree that to adequately test global warming models we would need to test actual measured temps over the next 100 years at the very least to distinguish AGW from natural variation?
From what I have read it appears that the climate models have, in effect, been fitted to observed data over the last 100 years. That says absolutely nothing about their predictive ability. That should be tested rigorously.
I realize the need to test the models over this time frame doesn't square with the alarmists' need to "do something now". But it is the only way to do it the right way. I assume as a man of science you agree it should be done the right way.
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:11PM
Yes, I believe that he (Mann) was accused of falsifying scientific data. And his being cleared was a whitewash.
The measurement data appears to be crap from the beginning, AND then the data appears to be massaged to fit, the amount of money for supporting AGW seems to be fantastic.
Jack, if this set up was occuring for a scientist at a Big Pharma company, you'd be crying foul if they found a "miracle drug."
Warwick| 9.24.11 @ 12:04AM
As soon as you throw up the tired old idea that "you attack the idea of man-made global warming because you can't stand to let go of your SUV" you show yourself to belong to the gullible schoolgirl legions of green-left ideology believers.
This is debate at such a low level that I reckon you disgust yourself
Ross Kaminsky| 9.19.11 @ 5:55PM
The Mann "hockey stick" has been thoroughly and completely discredited by McIntyre and McKitrick. I would add that I've spoken to McIntyre about this and that he's no right-winger looking to discredit alarmists just for the fun of doing so. He was just really pissed off that a "scientists" would do some of the crap that Mann did, such as using a methodology that created a hockey stick-shaped output no matter what input the program was given.
Here's one of very very many stories on this:
http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/13830/
Anybody who says that Mann is credible is simply not to be taken seriously.
And that's before Mann's scientific crimes in Climategate which should have been the last nail in the coffin of his reputation.
skip| 9.19.11 @ 12:13PM
Equus Asinus Enthalpy London,
The source 'skepticalscience' you cite is a blog.
The blog 'skepticalscience', in the 'About' page, in the 'About the author' section, states about the author: "He is not a climate scientist."
The link of the blog 'skepticalscience' you provide states the article is a re-post of an article at 'RealClimate' authored by Kevn [sic] Trenberth.
'RealClimate' is a blog.
The blog 'RealClimate', in the 'About' page, states: "The discussion here is restricted to scientific topics and will not get involved in any political and economic implications of the science."
The blog 'RealClimate', in the 'Contributors' page, lists twelve current permanent contributors.
Kevn [sic] Trenberth is not one of the twelve current permanent contributors of the 'RealClimate' blog listed.
One of the current permanent contributors of the 'RealClimate' blog listed is Michael Mann.
Michael Mann is one of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientists notorious for being completely discredited because he was repeatedly caught lying and cheating by repeatedly intentionally manipulating IPCC non peer-reviewed research inaccurately and dishonestly in order to knowingly intentionally deceive the public.
The link of the article you provide from the blog 'skepticalscience' which re-posted an article from the blog 'RealClimate' authored by Kevn [sic] Trenberth has a link for Kevin Trenberth.
The link for Kevin Trenberth, in the 'About Kevin' section, states about Kevin Trenberth: "He was a lead author of the 1995, 2001 and 2007 Scientific Assessment of Climate Change reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)"
You are an idiot.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 1:51PM
Hi Shirley Temple - I see you're still in way over your purty little head.
In what universe has Michael Mann's work _not_ been cleared as authoritative?
DaveD| 9.19.11 @ 2:02PM
"In what universe has Michael Mann's work _not_ been cleared as authoritative?"
The one you and I both live in. Mann's famous hockey stick graph has been completely discredited.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 3:57PM
Sorry but you're wrong. It's just a climate change denier's parroted talking point to say it's been discredited. You need to look beyond your politics.
JEM| 9.19.11 @ 4:47PM
Failing to remember my own advice but here goes.
Jack please provide the link to whatever is your authority for saying McIntyre and McKitrick's destruction of Mann's hockey stick model was ever refuted itself.
And be careful, because statistically speaking, Mann doesn't apparently know much about statistical analysis.
I have looked for a refutation of M&M but have never found one. Give it your best shot - otherwise you are just talking.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 5:13PM
The refutation lies in subsequent research that is also showing a similar hockey stick effect. What you don't seem to realise is yes, there were flaws in the original paper, but the error margins were stripped out in reporting and nothing has actually disproved the overall effect. This article in a British newspaper is the best explanation I've seen:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/envi.....e-mcintyre
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 6:01PM
You're missing the point, in my opinion. M&M made a significant contribution by showing that Mann was extrapolating from tree rings in a limited geographic area when he created the original hockey stick. But Mann's work has also been verified by countless other scientists that have created temp reconstructions since, including a Republican Congress-requested comprehensive analysis by the National Academy of Sciences. M&M pointed out an error Mann made (that's science), but the error did not significantly effect Mann's conclusions. His reconstruction was still valid and has been replicated using countless proxies from countless geographic locations.
JP| 9.20.11 @ 7:17AM
Mann's entire reconstruction depended upon one single proxy - the California Stripbark Bristlecone. Mann totally mis-used Principle Components (Wegeman 2004, McKintyre 2003-2006, von Storch 2005), without which the sharp blade on his Hockey Stick would have been impossible to construct. Remove the Bristlecone, and you remove the Hockey Stick. Later, M&M also showed the Mann did something similar with the Yamal Series of proxies. And no, niether Mann (using ocean sediments as proxies), nor Santer have been able to reconstruct the Hockey Stick using other methods. That is complete bunk.
JEM| 9.20.11 @ 11:49AM
His error invalidated his entire algorithm. When you can take any set of data and get your desired move? And to Jack - no one has refuted M&M's study - no one. Don't give me studies which just resupport Mann. Give me one which takes apart M&M. You will be looking for awhile. And of course please provide the models used by warmists that predicted future temperature increases that have been within even two standard deviations of their forecasts. M&M had to sue just to get the data Mann used which he said he had lost or it got damaged and destroyed - or the dog ate it - lol!
No, Mann is no scientist. That is why he is fighting as hard as he can to keep the truth out of the eyes of the public. If he had nothing to hide - why not turn over his research? Share it. Open it up to scrutiny. He won't because he already knows it can't.
Shane Hanson| 9.19.11 @ 11:13PM
Nope. You are the typical left wing cheer leader. The hockey stick graph has been debunked. But to the left, repeating a good lie like the hockey stick will not be stopped by facts. The fact is it doesn't matter what the climate change crowd says or lies about, you will back them regardless of the truth. Spencer's paper had a couple of errors, but they used those to attempt to totally discredit him. Mann flat out lied but he has people like you backing him. Hansen has deleted and modified original datasets and in science, that is blasphemy. He did so citing "corrections" to the data. This just is not allowed. You can show the calculations you used to adjust the set, but to actually alter the original set is to totally destroy the data, yet the left still supports this loon. So no matter what the facts are, you will never not support the climate warming scare mongers. It has become your religon.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:33PM
With the possible exception of the Loehle outlier, every temp reconstruction of the past several years that has made it into a peer-reviewed journal shows that we have surpassed the highpoint of the MWP and any other period for the last couple millenia. In that sense, Mann's hockey stick has been confirmed.
Spencer's paper had a couple of errors?!??! Ha. He completely made up a global statistical analysis based on one satellite reading (and I'm sure you're aware of his history of serial errors).
Your stuff on Hansen is just right-wing blog slander. You may disagree with him, but his methods and data are and always have been transparent.
I would suggest that it is you who are unable to deal with the facts in front of your face.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 3:36PM
The name "Michael Mann" carries with it the same cachet in the scientific community as the name Anthony Weiner does in the political community. You're basing your argument on the views of a coctail party joke, and yet you expect to be taken seriously?
Drunken Sailor| 9.19.11 @ 4:21PM
No Trinarcria, he doesn't expect us to take him seriously. Jack just likes to jump on some post and stir up the fecal matter to check the aroma.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:26PM
There appears to be no other credible explanation...
tsd| 9.19.11 @ 7:53AM
They want to raise the prices on things we need for basic survival (food, heat and shelter) until that is all we can afford to spend our money on... while they steal the money and take the power for they're ultimate fantasy world. These green preachers are the worst type of evil!!
Timothy L. Pennell| 9.19.11 @ 8:19AM
Look at the Environmental Flat Earthers. The people who SIT IN TREES, so as to prevent them from being cut down. The Great Unwashed. (By that, I mean, THEIR HAIR) Their Hair is always dirty. Their Clothes are always dirty. And they smell.
Because they don't bathe, and they smell so bad, they don't fit in, and they need SOMEWHERE to go.
So, they sit in trees. The work is easy. I'm sure they get food. And the Rent for the branch, is well within their means.
What could be better?
I've explained the MORON'S affinity with the "Movement", but, what about the IDIOTS of the World? The Thomas Friedmans.
How can someone who's so clean, has a nice Apartment, and THINKS he's so smart, align himself with the Dirty, Stupid people who live in Trees?
I think that he's trying to latch on to something. A Cause. Something that he can believe in.
Does he believe in GOD?
I don't know. Does BILL CLINTON count? Does KEYNES? OBAMA?
Why does he believe a guy - AL GORE - who has made Hundreds of Millions selling Carbon Credits, through his Environmental HEDGE FUND? Aren't Millionaires and Billionaires BAD? Aren't Hedge Funds even WORSE?
What about Al Gores huge New House, on the BEACH? Didn't he tell us that the Oceans would rise 100 Ft. if we didn't give him all of our Money, right now?
Or, did Obama really lower the Ocean Levels? (Like he said he would)
And, what's up with all of his Private Jet travel? Are Private Jets GOOD, now?
Why do the Thomas Friedmans let themselves become the USEFUL IDIOTS of one Stupid Cause, after another?
Are they just STUPID?
Was P.T. Barnum, right?
Or, is it that they're WATERMELLONS?
Green on the outside.
RED on the inside.
I'm thinking.......All of the above.
R. Nixon| 9.19.11 @ 4:24PM
People of the MSM like Friedman are so invested in Global Warming alarmism that they have painted themselves into a corner from which there is no honorable escape!!
As a result, they have no choice but to "go down fighting" which is exactly what they are doing.
Indy| 9.19.11 @ 8:38AM
Please pay attention to what your children are learning in school, read textbooks, review the curriculum, what movies are shown in class? Learn about Agenda 21, do your local council members, commissioners know what it is and how it is being implemented?
http://biggovernment.com/lrlee.....d-to-ruin/
York Hawk| 9.19.11 @ 8:42AM
When will I safely be able to emit methane from my arse again? Holding flatulence can lead to diverticulitus.
Anthony| 9.19.11 @ 8:44AM
Tell this clown Friedman to have Michael Mann and the other "academics" release their emails and other data that they are trying to hide, and then let's talk about which side is crazy.
For a science that's "settled", information is hard to come by from these same frauds who pretend to be objective scientists.
Follow the grant money and it will lead to leftist whores with an agenda.
MOS 1 1 2 | 9.19.11 @ 8:44AM
I met a retired State Dept. fellow from the D.C. area, recently, who said he has never met an intelligent person who didn't believe in man made global warming. Sort of reminded me of the story of the Manhattan matron, who was astounded when Reagan won 49 states, because, she said, "I never met anyone who voted for him." Thomas Friedman writes for these people.
Ross Kaminsky| 9.19.11 @ 9:26AM
MOS,
FYI, the story is about Pauline Kael, former movie critic for the New Yorker magazine, and the statement attributed to her was about Nixon.
It's a great line, though it does appear to be a misquotation of what she actually said! Still, I hope she's glad to be famous for something...
RGK
JohnnyB53| 9.19.11 @ 8:53PM
Kael is also famous for starting a lifelong obsession against Clint Eastwood, who in her mind was unredeemable after playing the lead in the supposedly fascist "Dirty Harry." Watch "Dirty Harry" today and you'll wonder what all the fuss was about.
MOS was 71331| 9.19.11 @ 11:09AM
Hey, MOS 1 1 2! I post as MOSwas71331 because 71331 was my Army Military Occupational Specialty, Airborne Combat Engineer Troop Leader. All the MOSs I heard of were four digit numbers (1331) with a possible prefix (7) for airborne qualified. What does "MOS 1 1 2" mean?
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 9:40AM
Dr. Ron Paul Will Stop Global Warming, Whether It's Real Or Not.
The Tea Party Rebellion Escalates.
Rise Up.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 10:24AM
Ricky Perry Will Stop Global Warming,Whether It's Real Or Not.
The Ricky Perry Algore Cheerleaders Are In The Building.
We Go Down For RINO's.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 10:54AM
Yeah, that sounds like something I would post...
Nice try, Clint.
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 10:58AM
You Israel Firster Ricky Perry Algore Cheerleaders can stop Poseur Punk Posting under my name.
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 11:18AM
That Was Not Me.
That Was Israel Firster Ricky Perry My Fantasy Love Algore Cheerleader Pussy Poseur Punk Posting.
Get Bent, Asshats.
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 12:50PM
That Was Drunken Sailor, My Fantasy Love Algore Cheerleader Pussy Poseur Punk Poster.
We Bend Each Other.
Doctor Right | 9.19.11 @ 12:52PM
That Was Drunken Sailor, My Fantasy Love Algore Cheerleader Pussy Poseur Punk Poster.
We Bend Each Other.
Drunken Sailor| 9.19.11 @ 1:12PM
That Was Doctor Right, My Fantasy Love Algore Cheerleader Pussy Poseur Punk Poster.
We Bend Each Other.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 1:57PM
Yeah...I'm sure EVERYONE will think that was me...
Drunken Sailor| 9.19.11 @ 2:46PM
I was just thinking the same thing DR. Poor picked on Clint, I think it has made him unhinged.
Is it just me or does he show a lot of repressed homosexual tendencies?
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 3:11PM
It's NOT just you; I have noticed that as well, and remarked on it on several occasions.
Many of Clint's posts are filled with angry, homoerotic references...Makes you wonder if he's even aware of it?
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 3:22PM
Dr.Reich Thinks About Queer Stuff Quite A Lot.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 4:09PM
...Only when I read your posts, Clint!
Clint | 9.19.11 @ 8:32PM
Uh Oh !
Dr.Reich's Queer For Tea Party Clint.
Drunken Sailor| 9.19.11 @ 3:32PM
I think he is totally aware of it, but can't help himself or come to terms with it. Thus the mental instability.
Then again I think he has a blow up Ron Paul doll so I could be wrong.
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 3:57PM
We Heard Drunken Swabbie Blows The Navy Goat.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 4:10PM
It's part of the "follower" mentality. Extreme politics attracts people with extreme emotions. Eric Hoofer discussed this at length in "True Believer":
SUMMATION:
Hoffer argues that all mass movements such as fascism, communism, and religion spread by promising a glorious future. To be successful, these mass movements need the adherents to be willing to sacrifice themselves and others for the future goals. To do so, mass movements often glorify the past and devalue the present. Mass movements appeal to frustrated people who are dissatisfied with their current state, but are capable of a strong belief in the future. As well, mass movements appeal to people who want to escape a flawed self by creating an imaginary self and joining a collective whole. Some categories of people who may be attracted to mass movements include poor people, misfits, and people who feel thwarted in their endeavors. Hoffer quotes extensively from leaders of the Nazi and communist parties in the early part of the 20th Century, to demonstrate, among other things, that they were competing for adherents from the same pool of people predisposed to support mass movements. Despite the two parties' fierce antagonism, they were more likely to gain recruits from their opposing party than from moderates with no affiliation to either.
The book also explores the behavior of mass movements once they become established (or leave the "active phase"). With their collapse of a communal framework people can no longer defeat the feelings of insecurity and uncertainty by belonging to a compact whole. If the isolated individual lacks vast opportunities for personal advancement, development of talents, and action (such as those found on a frontier), he will seek substitutes. These substitutes would be pride instead of self-confidence, memberships in a collective whole like a mass movement, absolute certainty instead of understanding."
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 4:56PM
Ya Wanna Play Your Cherry Pickin' Games, Religious Hypocrite, Dr.Reich.
"Take man's most fantastic invention -- God. Man invents God in the image of his longings, in the image of what he wants to be, then proceeds to imitate that image, vie with it, and strive to overcome it."
-- Eric Hoffer
The opposite of the religious fanatic is not the fanatical atheist but the gentle cynic who cares not whether there is a god or not.
Eric Hoffer
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 5:06PM
Interesting, that Plastic Faux Christian Dr.Reich has a serial problem with Us Catholics & then quotes Hoffer at Us.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 5:07PM
...And your point is..?
Sorry, Clint, but being able to cut-n-paste from a website about Eric Hoffer does NOT lessen your latent, deeply repressed tendencies...
Clint | 9.19.11 @ 8:33PM
I Could Deeply Recess My Boot Up Your Fixated Fag Ass.
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:17PM
Is that a threat of violence, C(lint) Elegans?
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 3:19PM
Uh Oh !
More Queer Talk From The Ricky Perry Algore Cheerleader Drunken Swabbie.
Dan Hirsch| 9.19.11 @ 11:04AM
In the late '80's Bill Buckley wrote an article in National Review cautioning that since the 'workers' were rejecting the communists' so-called 'help' to improve the proletariat's lot, the communists were looking for more appreciative beneficiaries. Mr. B suggested that the communists would now try to save 'the trees', because trees would never be so rude and ungrateful as to reject the communist salvation as Lech Walesa and the Gdansk shipyard workers so ungallantly did.
Then in September of 1989, Scientific American published an entire issue devoted to "Managing the Planet". Having learned to read research papers in grad school, I subscribed to that rag to maintain my skill at understanding impenetrably dense research writing.
That issue had articles, most written by honest-to-God research workers with more PhD's than names, devoted to some of the major variables in the global climate system. I recall they covered the moisture cycle, the carbon cycle, ocean currents, weather systems. I read every one of them-they all came to the same general conclusion: this is a very complicated subject, we don't have enough data and computing power to model the subject. They concluded that they did not know how or why things were the way they were. They needed a lot more research to have any kind of model for their field of study. Which to those of us fluent in researchese means send more money!
After wading through these articles I was surprised that they shared the "Heck, if we know..." conclusion. I was then shocked when I read the "Editor's Note" at the front of the issue. He obviously was a lot smarter than his authors; he said that it was CLEAR from these articles that there was no time for delay - we had to act about global climate change and act now because of the serious conclusions of the research in this issue.
I was appalled. So I 'cancelled my own g-d subscription,' that day. But I did learn a couple of things:
SA's editor knew that his readers didn't read the articles
that SA's authors didn't read the editorials and
to be on the lookout for more climate malarkey. This was already after the Ice Age, Nuclear Winter, and Global Cooling hoaxes and "Dewey Defeats Truman!"
This global climate farce has been political since it was invented!
It was SA Vol 261, No 3...I encourage you to take a look at this - if they weren't going to enslave us with this, it would be funny.
And another thing; it's amazing how much of our lives and our treasure they'll waste to 'fix' the ocean level rising 3' in a hundred years. Especially when you consider how little they are doing about the ocean level temporarily rising, 30', 40', 50' in half an hour, which actually happened at least twice in the last 8 years! Is anyone doing anything different after 250,000+ real, live human beings with names and families were killed in the 2004 and 2011 tsunamis? Of course not! If they did, they know we would expect to see some positive results, results soon. Maybe they could tote up the lives 'not lost, or saved' based on imaginary events, or maybe Hollywood disaster movies that actually didn't come true...
The climate thing has been a political ruse from the git go. Nothing has shown it to be anything else. Every syllable out of Al Gore's mouth proves it yet again. When oh when will the Securities and Exchange Commission bring Al Gore up on securities manipulation and fraud charges?
DTOM
DH
PS - Recently, in my dentist's office, I picked up an issue of Scientific American. The articles were not written by researching PhD's; they were written by Time Magazine correspondents!! Don't let anyone, throw that bird cage liner, fish wrap, toilet paper at you, ever! Sheesh...DH
MOS was 71331| 9.19.11 @ 11:14AM
Well said, Dan. For puzzled readers, DTOM is short for "Don't tread on me." (I'll save you the trouble of searching for it on the internet.)
WJ| 9.19.11 @ 11:44AM
Friedman is a repulsive hypocrite. Pictures of his 15,000 square foot mansion can be found on the web. His massive carbon footprint with that house is proportional to the massive waistline he sports.
R. Nixon| 9.19.11 @ 4:13PM
....and his overstuffed EGO!!!!
daddio| 9.19.11 @ 11:48AM
http://wattsupwiththat.com/
Dr. X| 9.19.11 @ 12:13PM
My degree is not in natural science, but I've got enough training in critical thinking to be extremely skeptical of the global-warming crowd.
15,000 years ago, the spot where I now sit was covered by glaciers, as was almost 1/3 of the current U.S. The globe sure as hell warmed, and it wasn't because prehistoric Native tribes were driving around in SUVs.
Further, the warming that melted the glaciers was hardly a disaster for Man. One of the things that bothers me about the global warming "science" is that it assumes that the world as we experience it should be permanent. Natural history, from fish fossils on desert floors to glacial recession, demonstrates that the natural world is always in a state of flux. On the one hand, we're taught evolution; on the other hand, the very same folks tell us the would should always remain as it is.
Al Gore warns us of the impending catastrophe and the flooding of New York City, etc. etc. Who says it shouldn't be such? The world has undergone many "catastrophic" changes. Ask the Romans at Pompeii. Or just wait until the caldera under Yellowstone blows.
Anthony| 9.19.11 @ 2:05PM
Dr.X, You make an excellent point, and one that I have tried out on warmers, to no avail. In addition to the glaciers of 15,000 years ago, I have made mention that for millions of years previously, most of the Earth was under a vast shallow inland sea, and numerious variations thereof.
When I remind warmers of our childhood dinosaur books, with the various eras showing vast portions of the U.S. different from today, they remain mute.
But your point about Algore says it all about these fanatics. It's all about them and their time on earth. This generation is the most egocentric ever to have inhabited the planet.
What climate changes that have transpired over the billions of years the Earth has existed is lost on these morons. They want things as they have known them to be, and demand no changes, despite how insane that perspective is. Their 80 years on this planet is the most important in the entire lifespan of Earth.
The Earth has, and will always undergo climate changes, but if Algore & friends are not there to witness it, did it really happen? That is what drives these self absorbed idiots.
The Bruce| 9.19.11 @ 11:24PM
Another good example is... ask the now dead residents of a land mass that is now the Mediterranean Sea.
Seems that ocean levels rose even in the absence of our SUVs back then.
George S| 9.19.11 @ 12:47PM
We are also being suckered by the logic of false alternatives. If AGW is indeed happening, then the only alternatives we are given is:
a) Raise the price of energy and send that money to Democrat bundlers in the form of Solyndra type loans; charge carbon taxes that eventually wind up in the pockets of politicians; install a cap and trade market that creates the latest crop of billionaires becoming rich off your money without having to work.
b) The sea levels will rise as a result of melting ice caps, swallowing cities whole; hurricanes will be more frequent and powerful causing untold destruction; fertile farmlands turn into deserts; drinking water disappears causing widespread human suffering.
That's it, pick one. Not offered as an alternative: longer growing seasons worldwide allowing greater food production from crops and livestock; increase in population in once frozen climates; increase in economic activity as a result of happier people (businesses, vacationers and retirees are found in warmer climates); overall health of people improving from warmer climates.
Scientist may disagree on the mechanisms on the AGW debate. but one thing they'll never agree on is the wild predictions from An Inconvenient Truth.
So, what exactly is the problem with a few extra days of summer and why must we go broke to prevent that from happening?
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 4:03PM
I take it you'll be happy to accommodate a few thousand Bangladeshis in your neighborhood George. Well done.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 4:16PM
Yeah - that's not a false alternative:
"Raise energy prices and go green OR be overrun by a swarm of immigrants from Bangladesh".
But I should like to think the Bangladeshi's will be all too pleased to relocate to the newly available beautiful tropical shores of the North Pole (I hear the view will be lovely there year round).
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:20PM
Happy to welcome as many Hindus and Buddhists as possible. Love Indian food. Need more Indian restaurants in Northern Minnesota.
Shane Hanson| 9.19.11 @ 11:21PM
See, your false alternatives are even worse than that but the left is just dishonest. Lets just say global warming is real for a second and follow this logic.
1. We completely restrict energy and the burning of fossil fuels to lower the CO2 output. The outcome of this: We lower food production and the manufactoring of pharmacueticals, pesticides and herbicides. Food becomes scarce in the US and we ship less over seas and the third world countries starve to death.
2. We ignore it. The world gets warming, the coasts move in and disease picks up. Less food is produced become some lands become arid. The food becomes scarce and we don't ship as much food over seas, the third world starves again.
So if their reality is true, a bunch of people starve to death either way. So what is the benefit to their solutions? Ah, nothing. But they do obtain significant power if we go along with them.
dw| 9.19.11 @ 12:52PM
The "Green Crowd" is being used by he "Red Crowd".
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 1:04PM
Gorebull warming is a political power play, nothing more.
Tom Osterman| 9.19.11 @ 1:26PM
Back when Reagan, in one of his first acts as President, deregulated the price of gasoline, liberals predicted that prices would soar due to "price gouging," I.e. Big Oil would charge consumers both arms and legs for a gallon because the government would not stop them. What actually happened is that the dollar price per gallon stabilized, and remained stable for around a quarter century.
After a while, liberals took a different tack: Big Oil was charging too little, encouraging consumers to drive wasteful and environmentally harmful vehicles like SUVs. What was needed was higher gas taxes to encourage conservation.
So here we have the great paradox of energy pricing: when the private sector raises the price of gas, it's greed, but when the government raises the price of gas, it's enlightened public policy. And liberals think no one will notice!
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 1:50PM
Big government to progs is like heroin to a junkie.
Brian| 9.19.11 @ 3:42PM
The left discusses the calamity of doing nothing as a reason to do "something". But it would seem the rationale for doing "something" would be definitive proof it would actually work. I am a computer model skeptic even IF I believed global warming were real. Do we really think that we've crafted an algorithm that approximates the complexity that is Mother Nature? Isn't that the height of hubris? And isn't the most frightening cataclysm that we do "something" and then it not work (after we've bankrupted our nation, set off massive geopolitical instability, and be less equipped to deal with any consequences of global warming - if it were real to begin with)? Wouldn't any so-called progressive agree that we should be certain of the outcome - which requires much deeper understanding of how our climate works, science that is definitively not settled. Especially when the computer models have been wrong to date.
GBinPA| 9.19.11 @ 3:46PM
Great article. I suspect that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide may have been caused by the natural warming cycle rather the other way around. At any rate, nobody's buying this garbage any more.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:25PM
Chemistry disproves your "suspicion" GBinPA. First, CO2 concentration levels are going up consistent with CO2 emission levels
Second, there is nothing in the natural carbon cycle cannot explain increase of 3.2-4.1 GtC per year past 25 years
Chemistry closes the door on your suspicion, as the ratio of heavy (C-13) to light (C-12) carbon has been declining (which shows the increased CO2 is traceable back to decayed plant and animal matter, or fossil fuels); the ratio of oxygen to nitrogen decreasing (which shows that it is actually carbon being emitted and binding with the oxygen, rather than naturally occurring CO2), and there is a decrease in relative amounts of radioactive (C-14) carbon.
David N| 9.19.11 @ 3:49PM
Tom Freidman knows everything, don't you know? Global warming is a fact, he knows why the economy slowed down, man, he just knows everything.
MikeN| 9.19.11 @ 3:53PM
The .04% amount of CO2 is irrelevant. Increasing the amount of CO2 will have a warming effect on the atmosphere and a substantial one of about 1 degree Celsius. The author of the new study that shows holes in climate science die to satellite measurements, Roy Spencer, has posted on his blog about why carbon will warm the atmosphere. The question is whether this 1 degree will be amplified or reduced thru feedbacks.
Incidentally I think you are also misrepresenting that study as well.
R. Nixon| 9.19.11 @ 4:09PM
.04% is the equivalent to 4 seats in a 10,000 seat stadium. Who are you trying to kid!!!
Think about it people.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 4:23PM
It's even sillier than that - 0.04% represents the TOTAL amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, not the increase in CO2 observed over the last half a century. Using that figure (0.008%, or an increase from 0.032% to 0.04%), the analogy would be like adding less than ONE seat in a 10,000 seat stadium.
Brubaker| 9.19.11 @ 7:42PM
"The .04% amount of CO2 is irrelevant. Increasing the amount of CO2 will have a warming effect on the atmosphere and a substantial one of about 1 degree Celsius. "
So, according to you, the amount of CO2 increase is irrelevant. Increasing the amount of CO2, whether by a minuscule amount or by a huge amount, will result in 1 degree Celsius in atmospheric warming.
The scary part is, that probably makes sense to you.
ella8| 9.19.11 @ 4:01PM
I am working on increasing my standard of living. If Friedman had it his way I would either be sterlized, forced to have an abortion, or unable to afford raising children. The Obama administration is already pushing the third agenda; my health insurance, heating my home, driving my car, and buying groceries are all more expensive.
ella8| 9.19.11 @ 4:13PM
The next step is making safe family friendly vehicles non existent and forcing us to live in urbanized areas where only the rich or those on welfare can afford to have children. I grew up working poor, we didn't get government handouts, we payed taxes, and life was a struggle. This heartless man would like that struggle to be even greater for the average American. People need to wake up and realize this can't be solved by taxing millionares and the GOP needs to grow a pair and stand up for those of us that are losing any gain we have made in our standards of living thanks to the pseudoreligious ideologues on the left like Obama and Friedman. We need leaders who stand with fervor and intelligence against the green machine. I will not sacrifice my standard of living and my family. Life is hard enough without the watermelon burden. It sure the hell is a regressive tax.
Pundit Pete| 9.19.11 @ 4:08PM
Ross - Ya dun good man!
Good job of tackling the subject with facts, logic and an easily understandable writing style. I take back what I've said about some of your pieces in the past (too long, too complex, too geeky).
However..... and as Reggie McDaniel (RIP) used to say, "there's always a however" ........ nothing will convince me that it's not the Tea Party's fault. Just look at what they've done to our economy as revealed in this Pundit Pete Press article.
http://punditpete.blogspot.com.....t-and.html
Keep up the good work!
MikeN| 9.19.11 @ 4:16PM
R Nixon it is arguments like that why climate scientists don't take skeptics seriously. It is not 4 seats in a 10000 seat stadium, but rather carbon spread throughout the atmosphere, at a very small amount. This small amount traps heat, if you increase this amount it will trap some more heat. You are starting at zero, and the existing level of carbon raises the temperature by about 30 degrees. Doubling this level of carbon will warm things up by one more degree.
R. Nixon| 9.19.11 @ 6:14PM
BALONEY!!!
There are plenty of climate scientists who do not buy this CO2 theory.
Those who were involved in the CERN Experiment certainly are not buying your theories.
They seem to have actually proved that cosmic rays and the sun have a lot more to do with climate change than CO2 and IPCC forecasting models.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:16PM
Where to begin?
Mr. Kaminsky starts with an ad hominem attack on Mr. Friedman, and then criticizes Friedman for utilizing an ad hominem attack.
Mr. Kaminsky then builds a strawman by taking two things Friedman said -- that Perry rejects the science of climate change, and that Texas is on fire -- and claiming that Friedman is falsely arguing that a singular weather event is conclusive proof of the science of climate change (Friedman made no such argument).
Mr. Kaminky then makes a semantics argument by focusing on Friedman's use of the term 'global weirding,' a term that Friedman didn't coin. Friedman explained exactly what that meant -- the hot gets hotter, the wet gets wetter, the dry gets drier -- but Mr. Kaminsky does not try to
challenge the substance of Mr. Friedman's point.
Mr. Kaminsky then dismisses Mr. Friedman's point -- that a warmer atmosphere holds more water, and this leads to magnified droughts -- by claiming that Mr. Friedman made the logical fallacy of appealing to authority. Specifically, Mr. Kaminsky dismisses the substantive point because Freidman cited ClimateProgress. Never mind that the referenced ClimateProgress article was actually quoting from the Texas state climatologist in making the point about relative humidity and droughts. Also never mind that the sunbstantive point Friedman was making is, in fact, basic high school physics, regardless of what authority is being appealed to.
Most egregiously, Mr. Kaminsky claims that the most recent science, as revealed by NASA satellites, shows that we have nothing to worry about. In fact, this report Mr. Kaminsky references was authored by Roy Spencer. It was so rapidly and thoroughly debunked that the editor of the journal who published it had to resign in shame because of the sloppy peer review process that allowed the serial errors to be published. Dessler recently published a piece thoroughly destroying Spencer's made-up statistical analysis.
Mr. Kaminsky's own appeal to authority is grossly overstated. While Dr. Giaever did resign from the American Physics Society, the man is a mechanical engineer who got his Nobel prize in 1973 for something to do with electrons tunneling thru solids, or something like that. He is not a climate scientist. He is an 82 year old man who hasn't published anything since the 1970s and who has man Senator Inhofe's go-to man on global warming denialism for years.
Mr. Kaminsky's next attack is the predictable and oft-repeated mantra that any attempt to put a price on carbon (a) will wreck the economy, and (b) is socialism. These scare tactics do not pass for logic. And Mr. Kaminsky could use a bit of a lesson on externalities.
Mr. Kaminsky builds another strawman by claiming that no one reports on the fact that CO2 is only 0.04 percent of the atmosphere, "not even Fox." Anyone who knows anything about climate science knows this fact ... it is reported in terms of 394 "parts per million" after all. It's not news, so why would anyone report on it? And the fact that CO2 is a small % of the atmosphere doesn't change the fact that it is the primary heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere (along with water, which of course has a feedback effect). But for the heat-trapping effect of this small amount of CO2, the planet would be approximately 18 degrees C below zero, and the sun's energy would simply bounce off the planet and radiate off into space.
Mr. Kaminsky's bullet points at the end are nothing novel and in no way undermine AGW theory. Scientists have long known that greenhouse effect of increases CO2 is logarithmic, which is why its forcing effect is expressed in terms of CO2 doublings rather than in terms of absolute amounts. We know based on analysis of isotopes that the increase in CO2 levels is anthropogenic, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels. And that water has a greenhouse effect should be troubling, not dismissed, because (as Friedman pointed out and as high school physics tells us) a warmer atmosphere holds more water ... in other words, water vapor will be a positive feedback and enhance the warming caused by rising CO2 levels.
But let's be fair to Mr. Kaminsky, he does have a significant moment of honesty when he says that the point of his article is not to offer a science lesson. It is also not a very good lesson on logic.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:23PM
Buzz- gorebull warming is NOT man made, it is a political power play by the commies in government, your post that goes around in circle is typical prog BS, get a grip, the government is NOT your savior and is completely out of control with the hussein at 1600.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:32PM
And them commies better not take my guns either. Bunch of faggots.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:37PM
It's called the second amendment.
Jack London| 9.19.11 @ 4:28PM
Very well put, Buzz. But there's not much point in arguing the science with these wacko deniers - it's only about politics to them. Any science that comes between them and their 'property rights' must be denied and anyone who knows what he's talking about is, as Perry and co on delight in, simply not as stupid as them and therefore cannot, by definition, be understood.
Ross Kaminsky| 9.19.11 @ 4:40PM
At the end of the day, the "science" of the alarmists is based on an assumption of positive feedback which much smarter people than I believe is erroneous, such as here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/200.....-feedback/
The politics of the alarmists basically assumes that people are stupid and that we won't react and adapt to whatever change their is.
Meanwhile, over a few decades during which temperatures warmed slightly (before this decade), heat-related deaths declined in almost every major metropolitan area as humans realized the risks of too much heat exposure and changed either their behavior or their environment to mitigate their risks.
I would note that the point of Giaever's resignation is not that he said (at least not this week) that man-made climate change is a hoax, but rather than he said that what is being put forward as science is more like religion.
What other science, other than perhaps evolution, causes this sort of religious, emotional reaction, and even fear of disagreement?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 5:02PM
You criticize Friedman for citing Joe Romm, and now you're going to rely on Anthony Watts to undermine the conclusion of the great majority of scientists that the net effects of feedbacks will be positive?!!?
These are the feedbacks we know:
-- As the atmosphere warms, it holds more water, which enhances the warming.
-- As the planet warms, sea ice melts, reducing the earth's ability to reflect solar energy,which enhances the warming.
-- As the earth warms, permafrost melts, causing massive release of methane, which enhances the warming.
-- As the oceans warm, they hold less CO2, which causes more CO2 to escape to he atmosphere, which enhances the warming.
-- As the soil warms, there is greater microbacterial activity, which breaks down more soil and releases stored carbon, which enhances the warming.
And I won't even get into the possible feedback effects of wildfires and increased air conditioning use.
The only feedback that is plausibly argued as negative is clouds, and scientists on both sides acknowledge that we do not know enough about how and where clouds will form in response to warming(higher clouds enhance worming, lower clouds will have a cooling effect) ... or even if more clouds will form at all.
The AGW theory-as-religion argument is just another one of those read-and-repeat catch lines ... I think it was coined first by Patrick Michaels. Obviously, folks who think climate change is a real threat believe it is the skeptics hose views are more akin to religion, in that they deny all of the evidence in front of their eyes an the only real plausible theory that has been advanced to explain why the climate is changing.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:50PM
"-- As the atmosphere warms, it holds more water, which enhances the warming.
-- As the planet warms, sea ice melts, reducing the earth's ability to reflect solar energy,which enhances the warming.
-- As the earth warms, permafrost melts, causing massive release of methane, which enhances the warming.
-- As the oceans warm, they hold less CO2, which causes more CO2 to escape to he atmosphere, which enhances the warming.
-- As the soil warms, there is greater microbacterial activity, which breaks down more soil and releases stored carbon, which enhances the warming."
Since I wasn't around then, perhaps you could comment on whether the above series of events occurred as the earth emerged from the last ice age. As I recall, that worked out rather well for us.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 6:05PM
Yes, Trinacria, these feedbacks occurred as we come out of ice ages. The increased solar input from the Milankovich cycles is quite small, and could not have brought us out of ice ages by itself. These positive feedbacks were triggered as a result of those cycles, and it is generally understood that brought us out of the ice ages.
Ross Kaminsky| 9.19.11 @ 5:58PM
That was Lindzen, not Watts.
Furthermore, you say that the feedback we don't understand is clouds, but my understanding is that that's the majority of the feedback in the alarmists' models.
What's crazy about your religion is that you say we must "explain why the climate is changing." It's like asking why there are poor people; it's the wrong question.
The question is "why wouldn't the climate change over time?" sort of like the right question is "why are there rich people?" But the left never asks the right questions because the answers are so inconvenient to their true motivations, which are political and economic.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 6:15PM
I didn't read your link, which was to WUWT, but I'm familiar with Lindzen's iris theory.
Spencer says that most of the models presumse clouds to be a positive feedback, but my reading of the comprehensive reports is that they are quite clear in saying they don't know the effect of clouds. Lindzen obviously argues that clouds will be a negative feedback. And I don't think any of the models say that clouds is the majority of the feedback ... water vapor and snow (albedo) are generally seen as the most important feedbakcs.
Why do you find it necessary to impinge the motives of folks who believe climate change is a serious threat? My motivations have nothing to do with politics and economics ... I am motivated solely by my little girls and wanting them to have a liveable planet. And everyone I know who thinks climate change is a serious problem has a similar motivation.
Look, the climate has changed in the past and will change in the future. What's striking now is the speed at which the planet is changing, and the infrastructure we have built up that will cause massive economic loss if even the moderate ill effects of climate change come to fruition. We know quite wll what has caused most of the significant climate changes in the past, and none of those forcings are present now. Human civilizations are a relatively recent phenomenon in the history of the planet. There's a lot to lose if we cause the climate to change dramatically. Why wouldn't we ask what is causing it and what can we do to avoid it?
William| 9.19.11 @ 10:21PM
RK: I am an agnostic on AGW. But I don't see how anyone can take the categorical position that human activities over the past 150 cannot have had ANY effect on atmospheric CO2 levels or (at least potentially) global warming.
Bruce Berger| 9.19.11 @ 9:01PM
Buzz,
How do you explain the fact that the earth has been significantly warmer in the past, with higher concentrations of CO2 than exist today, yet somehow the earth has arrived at today's relative nirvana?
In fact, when measured relative to the last 2.5 billion years of the earth's existence current temps are in the lowest quartile.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 9:11PM
There's nothing really to explain Mr. Berger. I'm not sure what your point is.
Bruce Berger| 9.19.11 @ 9:52PM
You seem to be quite confident in your climate knowledge, so I was hoping to get a big picture historical perspective from you about how we should think about relatively recent human history in the much longer history of the earth.
If you don't feel like tackling it, that's ok.
William| 9.19.11 @ 10:30PM
Buzz: I think it was you who punted on this one. The
question points up the arguable hubris in believing we know the "right" temperature for the earth and even may be able to stabilize it. If AGW is significant, we should be concerned about it and take reasonable, cost-sensible steps to limit it.
But surely even that supposedly 90+% of scientists who accept AGW would say that, if steps are taken, we can eliminate global warming. If so,they should go on record that they believe AGW is essentially the SOLE cause of global warming.
William| 9.19.11 @ 10:32PM
The penultimate sentence should have said the 90+% of scientists who accept "would NOT say."
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:04PM
Sorry William. Not being coy, just not sure what you're asking. Human civilization has thrived over the last 15,000 years or so. It seems reasonable to conclude that keeping temperatures in that range would be a good thing. We have hundreds of billions living within a few feet of sea level, and trillions of dollars of infrastructure money invested in that same area, so it seems keeping temperatures in ranges that minimize coastal destruction would be a good thing. We have an infrastructure built around certain agricultural zones, so it seems like a good idea to keep temperatures at a level that will keep those zones stable. And it seems reasonable to keep temperatures at a level that will minimize extreme weather events. And minimize climate refugees. And minimize habitat loss and destruction of ecosystems.
Beyond that, I'm really not sure what you're saying.
William| 9.20.11 @ 1:05AM
Wow, I'm not sure what to say. Maybe I've missed something, but I find your response shocking.
Buzz: I'll accept that the climate for the last 15,000 years has, on average, been very favorable for mankind. Over this time, we have grown from single-family or small family groups of early humans to the cultivating, husbanding and ultimately modern civilization we are today. This favorable climate likely was a significant reason for the extraordinarily rapid evolution of modern man.
But how can you pick this short -- eye-blink -- period out of the billions of years of geological (and climate) history of the earth and presume that we can keep the climate forever the way it has been during this brief period of geological time? Apart from all the milleniums that came before, just in the past several million years we have gone through many ice ages, the last of which ended some 20,000 years ago and eventually led to the rise of man. If one were going to make a rough guess of what the natural processes of the earth will produce next, you would have to bet on another ice age.
There were, of course, hundreds of millions of years, indeed billions of years, that preceded this recent period of ice ages. During that time the earth went through extremes of climate change and the continents came together and parted several times. The changes in the world's climate during that time were dramatically greater than even the most extreme projections of modern global warming enthusiasts.
I don't know whether man could survive those extreme climate fluctuations from the distant past, and I don't know what these historical climate fluctuations may say about the future of the earth's climate, EXCLUDING the effects of man's activities, but I feel comfortable in saying that there WILL be changes and that man currently does not have the competence to predict them. I am also certain that while man has (potentially) the ability to control the contributions he makes to factors affecting future climate, he cannot prevent those changes that would have incurred anyway, without any contribution from humans.
I don't know whether you are saying that, without any AGW, the climate of the earth would always stay as it has been the last (few) 10-15,000 years, or whether you are saying that man should do (and presumably has the power to do) whatever is necessary to ensure that the earth retains this climate regardless of what the natural evolution of the earth otherwise would produce. In either case your view on the importance of man in the scheme of nature, and our power to control the processes of the environment, is, I think, way over the top.
Viewed from this perspective, the climate of the last 10-15,000 years, and indeed the evolution of mankind from apes to modern humans (maybe a few million years) was an almost immeasurably small portion of the earth's history. Given this perspectcive, how can you pick out the last 15,000 years of earth's climate as something that could be expected to extend into the earth's indefinite future, were it not for the pernicious influence of modern man?
William| 9.20.11 @ 1:08AM
Somehow the last paragraph got out of place.
Buzz B| 9.20.11 @ 1:21AM
I didn't say that I expect the climate of the last 15,000 years to extend indefinitely.
I also very much agree with you that, based on relatively recent (in geologic terms) history, we should be trending toward an ice age now ... but instead we're warming.
You pushed me to write something on what the "right" temperature was. So I gave you some thoughts. It was based on the last 15,000 years because that is the period in which humans have thrived. You were just waiting to explode with this diatribe no matter what I wrote.
Whatever, I get bored and have been known to egg on other posters as well. But I didn't say anything that was particularly over the top. I'm not even sure what it is I'm supposed to respond to from your recent postings.
William| 9.20.11 @ 1:47AM
Buzz; I was not sandbagging you. I made other posts under this article in which I supported your points, and I did think your posts seemed to make sense, even though I do not have the detailed knowledge on the science to make an independent judgment. Also, as I said, I think a basic understanding of the science plus common sense suggests there might well be something to AGW.
I don't recall pushing you for a "right" temperature and I don't think you have answered the issues raised in my last post. I don't take any pleasure in this: I think those who categorically deny AGW are in the same category as flat -earthers. I thought you were a non-idealogical supporter of AGW, based upon a knowledge of the science. I accept that you do know the science, but I think that in focusing on the trees in the most recent growth in the forest, you have lost sight of the bigger forest -- which is several billion years of earth geologic and climate history.
This is why I was so surprised at your last post. Your other postings didn't seem to be idealogical, but this one seemed to reflect the liberal mindset that if you are smart enough, and have the power (through, e.g., government) you can make people, or the world, how you want them/it to be. It either had to be that, or that you believe -- in response to a question I raised in another of my posts -- that global warming is entirely attributable to human activity and (although I don't think this follows) that if we can eliminate AGW we can prolonged the current climate indefinitely.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:32PM
What's your take on it Mr. Berger? I guess I don't think there is anything in our paleoclimatic history that undermines the conclusion that human activities have been the primary driver behind recent warmings and that things are only going to get worse. Is there something particular in the Earth's history that you think contradicts this?
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:28PM
I dunno, Buzz. Looking at it from North of Fargo:
Last year the local lake froze over in Northern Minnesota like it always does and there was ice fishing. This year (in mid- late September) the weather was already 36 degrees this morning. I expect that by late November the lake will freeze and not unfreeze until late April.
Maybe our lows won't go below minus 30 this winter, this year. That would be some Global warming, you betcha!
Yah.
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:30PM
Next year, my son will be going on nine---time to buy an icefishing shed then. Maybe with a set up for below ice TV to watch the fishies.
Yah. You betcha. Global warming is a real problem here.
Ross Kaminsky| 9.19.11 @ 4:42PM
Oh, are you suggesting that putting a tax on carbon will not damage the economy? It would likely be the biggest tax increase in the history of the planet. You think that's good for economic growth?
And the plan that the Dems want to pass is socialism, or at least it is wealth redistribution. If you don't want to call that socialism, that's up to you, but the semantics are not the issue.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:52PM
I'm not sure what "plan" you're referring to that the Dems want to pass with respect to CO2. If you're referring to cap-and-trade (a la Waxman-Markey), then I'd remind you that was the system that Bush Sr adopted to deal with SOx and acid rain, and that Bush Jr. tried to adopt for NOx and SO2 (before a court struck it down). It is also the plan that McCain had been introducing for yearsin the Senate before he got a Tea Party scare.
Me, personally, I do support an initially modest, revenue-neutral carbon tax. Here's why:
(1) Even as one who supported the Waxman-Markey bill (a nearly-2000 page bill passed by the House in 2010), it is hard to deny that it was a beast. Anytime we start crafting a program that has the government administering a massive cap-and-trade system, that of necessity is going to include offsets, we create a system rife for favoritism and speculation. For many, ‘cap-and-trade’ has become synonymous with big government bureaucracy, a political non-starter.
(2) There is growing sentiment on both sides of the political aisle to eliminate subsidies for big oil and coal. It is also likely that the production and investment tax credits (and most likely the DOE guaranteed loan program) for renewable and alternative energy sources will be on the chopping block when they come up for renewal, if not before. It is a superficially attractive argument that all energy “subsidies,” including those for renewables, should get the same treatment. While many who support alternative energy expansion will disagree with the presumed equivalency of big oil subsidies and production tax credits for alternatives, we need to deal in the politically possible.
(3) The whole basis for the renewable energy tax credits, legally and morally, is to level the playing field -- not only to account for subsidies and government-funded fossil fuel infrastructure, but for the external costs that fossil fuel combustion imposes on society (and that renewables and alternatives would not). Our leaders need to start talking in terms of these externalities. Even without climate change adaptation cost considerations, the National Academy of Sciences has placed the societal costs from fossil fuel combustion – primarily health care costs -- at $120 billion per year.
(4) Historically, talk of tax increases was politically poisonous to the right. Now, it seems, subsidies are drawing even more ire from both sides of the aisle. For one worried about climate change, placing a price on carbon (disincentivizing fossil fuels) and giving tax credits to alternative energy sources (incentivizing alternatives) have the same leveling effect.
(5) The proposal would be that, as the tax credits for alternatives are drawn down, the price of carbon ratchets up at identical levels.
(6) The revenue-neutral aspect of such a carbon tax needs to be emphasized. The tax is collected at every wellhead, mine and port of entry, based on the carbon content of the fuel. Every dollar collected is returned to the public in equal amounts per adult (and half shares for each child) by checks issued each Spring. The initial level would have to be set quite low because the cost of the tax will no doubt be passed upstream to the end users, and drastic price increases will scare many (at least until they start getting their rebate checks).
(7) The low level of the initial tax would not dramatically change behavior (at least not as much as many believe is needed). But, again, we need to deal with the politically possible. And, very significantly, even a low initial price on carbon would put in place the mechanisms and the logistics to allow for a higher tax to be collected in the future, once the pendulum of climate change public opinion swings back and people start appreciating those rebate checks each Spring.
(8) It will be easily understood that people who are energy efficient will receive more in rebates than they pay in increased costs, while folks who live energy-intensive (or fossil-fuel-intensive) lives will be net losers. The incentives for personally increasing efficiencies will be in place and easy to grasp.
(9) Even though the tax itself will be revenue-neutral, this proposal will ultimately be a debt reducer, another political selling point. This is because government will be spending less on alternatives, even though the playing field between alternatives vs. fossil fuels continues to be as level as it is under the present system.
(10) Many Republicans, from Susan Collins and Bob Corker to Lisa Murkowski and Lamar Alexander, have supported some version of a revenue-neutral carbon tax in the past. There are others in the GOP who recognize the threats of climate change (Lindsay Graham, John McCain) and who could return to their statesmen roots and get behind such a plan. This would be needed to offset likely Democratic opposition from the coal states.
(11) To gain support from Tea Party Republicans, such a system would have to be in lieu of, rather than in addition to, EPA command-and-control regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. Such regulations are being finalized now and, absent the formidable legislative hurdle of amending the Clean Air Act, EPA has little choice but to issue such regulations.
(12) Under international law, a carbon tax would also allow the U.S. to place a tariff on incoming goods (not just on oil, but on fossil fuel intensive products from, for example, China). This should be a political selling point. But, more importantly, it would allow the U.S. to exercise its huge leverage as the world's biggest consumer to influence behavior in the developing countries.
(13) If, as some believe, the threats of climate change prove to be overblown, then ‘no harm, no foul.’ The low level of the initial tax will not make much of a difference on the macro level. To the extent it does, it would just be to steer us towards cleaner (in the traditional sense) and more domestically generated energy sources. If, as most scientists believe, the harmful effects of climate change become more pronounced over the next few years and the public begins again to demand some action, then the mechanisms and the logistics are in place to set a price on carbon that will have a meaningful emission-reduction effect.
john| 9.19.11 @ 5:19PM
fairly sensible; rare on this subject
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:41PM
This is the most profoundly well packaged bundles of bull shit I've ever read in one of these posts.
Thank you, Buzz, for demonstrating precisely the type of wild assumptions (made with absolute metaphysical certitude) upon which the man-made global warming models are based. Well done, comrade.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:43PM
that's bundle (singular)...
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 5:23PM
Buzz B,
For someone who takes the position of attacking the author on his logical fallacies, I find the following statement from your post rather curious:
"Mr. Kaminsky's next attack is the predictable and oft-repeated mantra that any attempt to put a price on carbon (a) will wreck the economy, and (b) is socialism. These scare tactics do not pass for logic. And Mr. Kaminsky could use a bit of a lesson on externalities."
Upon what experiemental evidence do you base this conclusion? At a minimum, the hypothesis that arbitrarily placing a value on the production of CO2 could thereby increase operational costs that would either (a) decrease net revenue and, by extension, shareholder value, (b) result in corporations passing along the cost to consumers, or (c) place US corporations (and workers) at a competitive disadvantage relative to coutries who chose not to participate in this system, seems to have sufficient face validity to warrant rigorous economic research. Yet you exhibit no reticence in doing precisely that which you have accused Mr. Kaminsky of doing; namely, you dismiss as a simple scare tactic a potentially valid hypothesis without a shred of evidence to support your position. You don't credibly rebut the substance of his claim; rather, you dismiss it as illogical without revealing a single flaw in the logic.
With respect to the second claim (i.e., the notion that placing a value on CO2 represents a form of socialism), it has widely been reported that the aim of commoditizing CO2 would be two-fold. Like any tax on a commodity, the primary aim would be to decrease consumption; however, since the tax disproportionately affects those who can least afford it, the presumed second aim of the tax would be to use the proceeds to provide subsidies to those for whom the tax would create the greatest burden. By definition, therefore, the tax would result in a redistribution of wealth and the state would be the vehicle through which it would occur. Sounds kind of like socialism, doesn't it?
But enough about debate tactics and underlying biases. Let's address the practical aspects of the commoditization of CO2.
Who sets the price?
Who polices compliance and will the price be sufficient to both fund regulatory oversight and subsidize those who are disproportionately burdened by this regressive tax?
If the most egregious offenders of CO2 emission policies don't agree to participate in the cap and trade system (think China, Russia, India, virtually any country in the middle east), does this not place US-based companies (and, by extension, US workers) at a competitive disadvantage?
Further to this point, do CO2 emissions observe national borders or is it sheer folly to regulate emissions from one country when neighboring countries have no such regulation?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 5:53PM
Trinacia -- I'll try to respond to your points.
The "wreck the economy" scare tactic has been used to oppose every major piece of environmental legislation that has ever passed. And industry has always survived just fine. and there are very credible studies which demonstrate that the clean air and water protected by those laws, as well as the technologies needed to comply with them, havehelped the economy more than the cost of complying has harmed the economy.
I'm fairly certain that placing a price on carbon would result in higher costs being passed on to the consumers. That's the idea if we want to create incentives that will effect behavior. I do worry about it being regressive. But if it were truly revenue-neutral and offset directly by rebate checks (rather, than, say a decrease in the income tax rate), then I believe most lower income folks would wind up getting more in rebates than they pay in increased costs.
The "socialism" scream is another scare tactic, and it's kind of silly to have to rebutit with any detailed argument. Taxes aren't socialism. Socialism involves the ownership of the means of production and centralized planning of who gets what. You are absolutely correct that all taxes involve a redistribution of wealth ... so are you saying that all taxes are socialism? I assume you agree that we need some taxes.
Who sets the price ... well, whoever drafts the law. As I said, I would initially set it quite low under my ideal scheme. And I would ratchet down the production tax incentives for renewables to correspond with ratcheting up the price on carbon. It would be based on the carbon content of the fuel.
Policing would probably fall to the Dept of Interior (could be EPA or Commerce or Energy or another agency though). The regulatory oversight would be minimal, which is one reason why a carbon tax is so preferable to cap-and-trade in my opinion. Basic physics tells us the carbon content of the various types of coal and crude, so all we'd really need to know is the voolume being extracted or imported, and we know that already. I would think the current IRS could get out the rebate checks. I don't really see any significant regulatory costs from a simple carbon tax.
I favor equal distribution of rebates, for the sake of simplicity And as I said above, I think the rebate system would rebut any regressive effect on low income folks. But I live in Appalachia, where upwards of 90% of our electricity comes from coal-fired power plants. There's not much question that certain regions will be harder hit that others. And there's a legitimate argument to be made that the distribution of collected revenue should be something other than in equal shares, to account for that disparate impact.
As far as placing the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage, this is something we face with all of our environmental and labor laws ... countries that don't have such standards can make stuff cheaper. The carbon tax I propose has advantages over traditional regs though, because under GATT we can place tariffs on imported goods so long as we place the same tax on domestic goods. So we could tax all incoming fossil fuels. And I would argue that GATT even allows us tax goods from other countries that use fossil fuels in the manufacturing process if that country doesn't impose a similar cost. So it actually gives us some market leverage to persuade others to adopt similar measures. And, obviously, taking domestic action gives us more credibility in post-Kyoto negotiations to get other countries to adopt similar measures.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 7:44PM
RESPONSES BELOW:
I'm fairly certain that placing a price on carbon would result in higher costs being passed on to the consumers. That's the idea if we want to create incentives that will effect behavior. I do worry about it being regressive. But if it were truly revenue-neutral and offset directly by rebate checks (rather, than, say a decrease in the income tax rate), then I believe most lower income folks would wind up getting more in rebates than they pay in increased costs.
RESPONSE: This is precisely my point. If lower income folks end up getting more in rebates than they pay in increased costs, someone else bears the cost of this redistribution. When wealth is transferred there is, by definition, an economic cost. At a minimum, there's an administrative cost (someone has to collect and redistribute the money); on the larger scale, corporations are faced with increases in operational costs. Some of this will be passed on to consumers (who, unless they are among those with the lowest incomes, will not be fully compensated by the rebates), but some will likely be borne by the corporation. When corporations are faced with increased operational costs, they pay lower dividends to shareholders (who in turn have less to invest in things like growing their own business or buying more widgets) and they begin to look with increasing scrutiny for ways to cut costs (and we both know the first thing to go when this happens). But let's assume, as you suggest, that most of the cost will be passed on to consumers - if the corporation can pass along the cost with no impact on net revenue, and the consumer will be reimbursed for the increased cost that they incur, how is consumption decreased?
___________________________
The "socialism" scream is another scare tactic, and it's kind of silly to have to rebutit with any detailed argument. Taxes aren't socialism. Socialism involves the ownership of the means of production and centralized planning of who gets what. You are absolutely correct that all taxes involve a redistribution of wealth ... so are you saying that all taxes are socialism? I assume you agree that we need some taxes.
RESPONSE: "Socialism involves the ownership of the means of production and centralized planning of who gets what." When the government decides what level of CO2 production/usage is acceptable, sets the "price" that companies shall pay for it's production/usage, and determines how the proceeds are redistributed, how can it be said that the market is not centrally planned?
_____________________________
Who sets the price ... well, whoever drafts the law. As I said, I would initially set it quite low under my ideal scheme. And I would ratchet down the production tax incentives for renewables to correspond with ratcheting up the price on carbon. It would be based on the carbon content of the fuel.
RESPONSE: "Who sets the price ... well, whoever drafts the law." So legislators - not market forces - will dictate price? Why stop at CO2 prices? Why, legislators have certainly demonstrated a keen understanding of fundamental economic principles. Perhaps they could dictate the price of things like CT scans and coronary bypass surgery and ... wait a second, that's been done before - nevermind.
Moreover, if renewables were economically viable, why the need for production tax incentives in the first place? Wouldn't the potential market demand be sufficient incentive for companies to invest in the development of renewable energy platforms?
________________________________
Policing would probably fall to the Dept of Interior (could be EPA or Commerce or Energy or another agency though). The regulatory oversight would be minimal, which is one reason why a carbon tax is so preferable to cap-and-trade in my opinion. Basic physics tells us the carbon content of the various types of coal and crude, so all we'd really need to know is the voolume being extracted or imported, and we know that already. I would think the current IRS could get out the rebate checks. I don't really see any significant regulatory costs from a simple carbon tax.
RESPONSE: "I would think the current IRS could get out the rebate checks." REALLY? They're going to be awfully busy policing the health insurance mandate (which will require a projected increase of 16,000 agents).
"I don't really see any significant regulatory costs from a simple carbon tax." Has there ever been in the history of this country a tax that didn't carry with it the need for enforcement/regulatory oversight? Or are you perhaps suggesting that current IRS agents aren't fully occupied with their current responsibilities?
_______________________________
As far as placing the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage, this is something we face with all of our environmental and labor laws ... countries that don't have such standards can make stuff cheaper. The carbon tax I propose has advantages over traditional regs though, because under GATT we can place tariffs on imported goods so long as we place the same tax on domestic goods. So we could tax all incoming fossil fuels. And I would argue that GATT even allows us tax goods from other countries that use fossil fuels in the manufacturing process if that country doesn't impose a similar cost. So it actually gives us some market leverage to persuade others to adopt similar measures. And, obviously, taking domestic action gives us more credibility in post-Kyoto negotiations to get other countries to adopt similar measures.
RESPONSE: So if I'm a US small business or corporation that relies on affordable imports for component parts or other goods, I get a double whammy: first I'm hit with the increased operational costs related to my own carbon output, then I have to pay a higher cost of goods as the result of foreign companies increasing their prices to compensate for the increased cost of importation. Looks like I better start shedding jobs...
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 8:10PM
Seems like a lot of this is just arguing for the sake of arguing.
Yes, the people who bear the cost of the carbon tax would be those who use the most fossil fuel. That is the desired result, not an unfortunate consequence.
Your description that attempts to equate a carbon tax with socialism could be said about every tax and regulation. The government sets the standards for the amount of some additive that can go into food, the amount of pollution a source can emit, and the extent of safeguards a factory must install. The government sets the level of any tax or fine or penalty collected. And the government determines how all collected revenue is distributed. So, under your definition, all taxes and regulations are socialism.
With respect to legislators setting the price ... my response is the same. They sat the level of all taxes; this would be no different.
With respect to why renewables need the production tax credit (which I propose phasing out), the government has provided the funding, contracts and R&D for a whole host of new technologies, so that's not unusual. But more importantly, the government incentivizes fossil fuel in a whole host of ways. Quite apart from the $10 billion or whatever it is in direct tax deductions, the government built and maintained an entire infrastructure that supports a fossil fuel economy, it uses troops to protect the flow of oil, it gives cheap leases to federal lands, it pays for miner disability benefits and spill clean-up assistance, it pays to monitor and clean up traditional pollution, and it pays costs for health problems associated with fossil fuel use. I would argue that providing incentives for renewables and alternatives is just one small step to levelling the uneven playing field that our government has already created in favor of fossil fuels.
You don't really make an argument why the regulatory costs of a simple carbon tax would be high, other than government is bad. I don't see where it would cost more than any other tax, which is minimal with existing agencies.
I don't see your double-whammy argument. Products will be subject to one price increase, either the tax imposed at the first sale in this country, or the increased price of a product as a result of that tax. If the fossil fuel comes from another country, it will be subject to the same tax. If its a good from a country that doesn't put a price on carbon, it will be subject to a tariff equal to the increased cost a domestically manufactured good incurs. Obviously, our major trading partners of Canada and Europe already put a price on carbon. The most likely outcome if we and Europe and Canada and the rest of the developed world begin slapping a tariff on Middle East oil or Chinese products, that they'll just impose the price themselves so that they can garner the revenue rather than the countries to which they are exporting.
George S| 9.19.11 @ 10:34PM
"Simple carbon tax"... Who gets the money? And what did they do to earn it? Why not attach a monitor to people and tax each breath they take? Simple, no?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:57PM
Read my previous post at 4:52 in this same thread if you truly care about what I mean by a simple revenue-neutral carbon tax.
George S| 9.19.11 @ 11:14PM
Oh I did read it and it still does not answer the question of who gets the money that gets attached to carbon sales and consumption. Does it go to the Treasury as the sales tax on gasoline does? Well, we have seen what happened to the revenue neutral social security system (yes, that was the model of revenue neutral prior to the late 1980's). Does it go to more Solyndras? Oh you bet it will.
The purpose of a sin tax is to discourage activity. So far, no one has yet to prove Al Gore's predictions have any validity. That is the point of all this, right? To avoid Al Gore's clairvoyant visions of the Earth? Or else why bother? If you say it is because of 120 billion in health care savings then congratulations on the birth of another Straw Man. As if people will stop getting sick if we only levy more taxes.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:20PM
You must not have read it. I propose that every penny collected is returned to the American public in equal amounts per adult, with half shares per child.
Obviously, we disagree on the merits of the science, but nothing I say or have learned is in anyway based on Al Gore.
The $120 billion number is the National Academies' assessment of costs we as a society bear as a result of fossil fuel combustion, and it does not include the effects of climate change or a host of other things that were hard to estimate. Mostly it is health care costs and infrastructure maintenance.
Trinacria| 9.20.11 @ 1:47PM
Buzz,
Your argument that US businesses would not be placed at a competitive disadvantage by virtue of our ability to tax imports is valid insofar as we're limiting ourselves to the US market. While I pretend to no particular expertise in internation business, it seems self-evident that a US company that competes in global markets would, in fact, incur a further increase in operational costs that foreign competitors are not burdened with. If I sell my product in Asia, South America, Africa, etc., I'm certainly not competing on a level playing field. Add to that the fact that I'm already burdened with the second highest corporate income tax rate in the world and extraordinarily high human resource costs relative to foreign competitors.
Of course, I could always move my operations over seas and lower both my (carbon) tax burden and my human resource costs, but then it would be hard to argue the the tax hasn't had an economic impact in the US (and as far as I can tell, it also hasn't really achieved it's desired result; namely, decreasing my company's consumption of fossil fuels).
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:35PM
I think it's a great idea with our economy collapsing to pass another tax designed to max swine like Al Gore rich and the rest of us poorer, for dubious, very dubious, climate effect.
China will tell us to screw ourselves, fool. We will weaken ourselves for nothing, anyway. And then, it has not been shown that our intervention will do anything anyway, or that it is do to man's actions at all.
People LIVE in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The most powerful environmental damage man can do was done to those cities.
William| 9.19.11 @ 4:21PM
This subject is a sad commentary on what happens when science becomes polluted by political agendas -- and I think this is true for those on both ends of the debate. The result is that the average person has no way to know what the truth might be.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:29PM
That's exactly the strategy of the ExxonMobils of the world. They don't have to disprove AGW theory, just throw enough crap to the wall so that the average person is confused.
Nick| 9.20.11 @ 5:33AM
Buzz B.,
"They don't have to disprove AGW theory, just throw enough crap to the wall so that the average person is confused."
It is incumbent on those who propose the theory to prove it, not the other way around. Skeptics poke holes in the theory, and the proponents defend it with observations that are repeatable. They don't hide their data. This is how real science works.
You AGW Hoaxers are losing this debate, big time. Keep dreaming of some sort of Cap and Tax pipe-dream, it's not going to happen.
Also, why did you claim that there are "hundreds of billions of people living ithin a few feet of sea level"?
Even if you meant millions, you're still making it up, according to a March, 2000, report by Vivien Gornitz:
"Approximately 400 million people live within 20 m of sea level and within 20 km of a coast, worldwide. However, this figure is not very precise -- the spatial distribution of coastal populations is not known to better than 20-30 km." (Emphasis mine.)
Source: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/resea.....ornitz_04/
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:27PM
William- A vast majority of the scientists that call MMGB " real", are funded by governments, what do you think they will publish as " evidence"?
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:35PM
By the way progs, what ever happened to the up and coming ice age that the government said was inevitable in the '70's?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 4:44PM
Another blogosphere-generated myth. Of all the peer-reviewed articles published in the 1970s that made predictions one way or the other, by a 6-to-1 ratio they were prediciting warming rather than cooling. A couple mainstream magazines had the cooling predicition on the cover, which probably started this blogosphere myth. But the Bulleting of Meteorological Society (BAMS) did a comprehensive analysis in 2008 of all the 1970s science literature and showed that it is just false that scientists were predicting cooling. Others, notably NOAA, have reached the same conclusion. I can give you a cite to link for those reports if you want. We knoew the warming effect of CO2 back in the 1970s, and we also knoew the cooling effect of aerosols. So there was some bases for the small minority that was predicting cooling. But the great majority (44 out of 51) of those who made a predicition believed that CO2 would be the dominant forcing agent in coming decades.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:49PM
If you say so Al, they got you hook, line and sinker.
Paul from SA| 9.19.11 @ 5:29PM
Wrong. Check the headlines. They are very similar to today: 100% consensus among all scientists, 100% certainty, along with the same dire, scary predictions of massive death, famine, droughts, flooding, disease, hurricanes, tornadoes,... and it's caused by humans and we must raise taxes. The only difference is it was global cooling.
It's the same headlines they used in previous weather/climate scares going back to the early 20th century.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 6:28PM
http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/....._of_th.php
http://www.usatoday.com/weathe.....ling_N.htm
skip| 9.19.11 @ 10:28PM
This is in addition to my post in this thread above 9.19.11 @ 12:13PM.
One of the twelve current permanent contributors listed at the blog 'RealClimate', in addition to Michael Mann - one of the IPCC scientists notorious for being completely discredited because he was repeatedly caught lying and cheating by intentionally manipulating IPCC non peer-reviewed research inaccurately and dishonestly in order to knowingly intentionally deceive the public - is William Connelly.
The link of the article you provide from the blog 'scienceblogs' is posted by William Connelly and authored by William Connelly among several others.
The link of the article on a study you provide from 'USA Today' is authored by William Connelly among several others.
In this thread you repeatedly cite the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Sciences is a politically appointed council.
The politically appointed National Academy of Sciences is established by Congress.
The politically appointed National Academy of Sciences is established as an honorific society.
The politically appointed National Academy of Sciences has had as a committee member and advisor to various panels Michael Mann.
The politically appointed National Academy of Sciences attempted to refute the Global Warming Petition Project at petitionproject.com signed by 31,487 scientists who debunk manmade global warming, who provide their names, degrees, scientific specialties, the peer-reviewed research, 132 references to the peer-reviewed research, and verified the academic credentials and the professional credentials of all 31,487 scientists in response to saboteurs.
The politically appointed National Academy of Sciences attempted to discredit the 31,487 scientists at petitionproject.com who debunk manmade global warming and provide their names, degrees, scientific specialties, the peer-reviewed research, 132 references to the peer-reviewed research, and verified the academic and professional credentials of all 31,487 scientists in response to saboteurs.
Your lengthy commentary is light on scientific evidence and reason and experience and heavy on political ideology and emotional prattle.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:37PM
So anyone associated with realclimate, the IPCC or the National Academies is untrustworthy in every study they do? Got it.
Your tin foil conspiracy crowd awaits your return to the Mothership.
skip| 9.19.11 @ 10:50PM
This brief commentary is devoid of scientific evidence and reason and experience and is exclusively political ideology and emotional prattle.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:55PM
Can you refute the BAMS study that scientific literature in the 1970s was overwhelmingly concerned with warming not cooling, except by saying that one of the authors has some ties to someone who has ties to some blog or organization you disagree with?
skip| 9.19.11 @ 11:46PM
I couldn't help but notice your political emotional prattle devoid of scientific reason and experience ignored that the sources you've used from the non peer-reviewed research of the discredited IPCC, the politically appointed National Academy of Sciences, and the blog RealClimate, all have in common Michael Mann, one of the IPCC scientists notorious for being completely discredited because he was repeatedly caught lying and cheating for intentionally manipulating IPCC non peer-reviewed research inaccurately and dishonestly in order to knowingly intentionally deceive the public.
I couldn't help but notice your political emotional prattle devoid of scientific reason and experience ignored the Global Warming Petition Project at petitionproject.com, signed by 31,487 scientists who debunk manmade global warming, who provide their names, degrees, scientific specialties, the peer-reviewed research, 132 references to the peer-reviewed research, and verified the academic credentials and the professional credentials of all 31,487 scientists in response to saboteurs.
Global Warming Petition Project:
We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.
There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:51PM
not worth responding to
skip| 9.20.11 @ 12:29PM
To clarify:
It is not worth responding to a connection between Michael Mann and the sources you cite to support your arguments.
It is not worth responding to a petition 31,487 scientists have provided about greenhouse gases in general and carbon dioxide in particular.
It is worth expounding extensively for radical political, social, and economic tyrannical change adversely affecting the liberty of mankind on the basis of pseudo-reasoned experience of trivial quasi-scientific minutiae of statistical insignificance amounting to nothing more than emotional prattle.
It is worth noting a primary weapon in your arsenal of argumentation is the non sequitur, and typical of your style would be alleging this recent news item to be one itself:
"We've just learned that some flares are many times stronger than previously thought"
"Solare flares were already the biggest explosions in the solar system-and this discovery makes them even bigger"
"About 1 in 7 flares experience an "aftershock""
"We call it the 'late phase flare'"
"The energy in the late phase flare can exceed the energy of the primary flare by as much as a factor of four"
(9.19.11 @ science.nasa.gov/science-news/)
Never bring emotional prattle to a reason and experience fight. This thread is testament to the result. Thank you for the documentation.
Nick| 9.20.11 @ 5:39AM
Buzz B.,
"Your tin foil conspiracy crowd awaits your return to the Mothership."
This, from the same guy who also wrote this: "That's exactly the strategy of the ExxonMobils [sic] of the world."
What size is your tinfoil hat, conspiracy nut? Did ExxonMobile also kill the scientist who invented an engine that runs on water?
Nick| 9.20.11 @ 5:43AM
p.s. Disregard the [sic] in the second quotation. I spelled it wrong. It just didn't look correct as I typed it. Bad editing on my part.
My point still stands, though.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:42PM
jack- If you look at something and see it as being blue, but a member of the " intelligentsia " says it is red, who do you believe?
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:56PM
What will be the next government scare tactic, bodily functions done at the wrong time of day?, who knows!
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 4:57PM
Buzz- Guns are good, they helped build this country.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 5:14PM
buzzz-
"(7) The low level of the initial tax would not dramatically change behavior (at least not as much as many believe is needed)."
-------------------------------------------------------
Thank you for proving my point.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 5:16PM
I believe I will fire up the charcoal tonight but before that, go do some off roading in my V-8 4x4,I love America.
Dick Nome| 9.19.11 @ 9:25PM
Be sure you consume some high gas quotient legumes with the animal flesh you sacrifice on the pit. Have a blast.
john| 9.19.11 @ 5:17PM
I don't mind Obama but I can't stand Greenies. Environmentalism has never been about any environment, neither concerned for humans nor for the ecology as a whole. It is an anti-modern movement, just like Jihadist Islam, seeking to return all (except the activist class I suppose) to a medieval standard of freedom and of living. In fact there is only one Jihad on the other, Enemy, side in the current Fourth World war, for the Anti-modern Jihad has Greenie and Islamic wings, as well as a wing for every other religion or Fascist ideology known to mankind.
Why else do we get so-called environmentalist policy doubling the price of the world's corn thus starving the poor; poisoning the soil and water of the Corn Belt, and creating an enormous dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico, worse than 1,000 oil spills? And that's just Ethanol...which also consumes billions in direct and indirect subsidies.
And on a lighter note, we have light bulbs and flush toilets that don't light and don't flush. The list is endless.
I think repealing the N.E.P.A. and abolishing the EPA would be good starts, plus repeal of the Endangered Species Act and passage of a new statute prohibiting people with merely an ideological interest in a matter from filing any lawsuit. Then perhaps we might discharge all known Environmentalists from employment at any university, college, school, or other publicly funded job of any kind.
These people are enemies of America, as evil as Osama Bin Laden and ten times as dangerous, and they should meet Bin Laden's fate.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 5:21PM
Then I see you hate America.
Paul from SA| 9.19.11 @ 5:24PM
Just like the animal rights activists. They don't care about animals suffering, they just want to control humans.
If they really cared, they should be protesting lions and hyenas and sharks and birds and ants, and trying to protect the impalas and other prey from being eaten alive.
Paul from SA| 9.19.11 @ 5:22PM
The bad news for Friedman and AlGore is that fewer and fewer people are believing this global warming nonsense. People are finally hearing the other side.
I don't know how these AGW people can preach to us with a straight face. Friedman's main house is the size of a mall. One of his libraries is larger than most people's homes. His Co2 footprint is equal to billions of people. 99% if his inherited wealth could be donated to the poor and he could still live like a king, spewing CO2 like it's going out of style.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 5:29PM
It's called socialism.
HiHoSilver| 9.19.11 @ 5:29PM
I think that the author makes some good points, and I hope the numbers given and references made are done fairly. I'm sure there is a great deal of climate mongering that occurs which is not based as much on data as it is on fashion and feeling.
I would take issue with the author on what he is saying about the green left using carbon to try and take over peoples' lives or take a larger share of the economic pie. It sounds like a conspiracy theory to me. (i.e. the left will say whatever they have to to get control of your money) Some of the climate folks may be wrong or misguided, but I find it a little improbable that they are simply using this as vehicle (a low emission vehicle of course :-) ) for a political agenda which has nothing to do with the environment. I think that most of them actually do believe anthropogenic carbon dioxide and other GHGs are destroying the planet. I would suggest attacking their argument without so much attacking their motives. That is very hard to do with certainty unless someone explicitly states their motivation.
Ross Kaminsky| 9.19.11 @ 6:07PM
HiHo,
I don't have time for a long answer at this point, but I would suggest to you that if Socialist International supports a carbon tax, then there's something more to this than environmentalism.
From this page
http://www.socialistinternatio.....cleID=2032
a couple of quotes:
"carbon tax revenues could be returned to the public through dividends or progressive tax-shifting"
"The argument has also been made that a carbon tax applied globally offers the better prospect for bridging the current division between developed and developing countries. The idea would be to try to put the same price on carbon everywhere and in the most direct way possible. The tax could be adjusted annually by a global body possibly similar in structure and intent to the international climate/environmental court discussed in this report. In line with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, developing countries that commit to a carbon tax could receive a percentage of the carbon tax revenues from developed countries to help fund technology transfers, forest preservation and adaptation to already ongoing climate change. "
And here's a good one:
“A climate change response must have at its heart a redistribution of wealth and resources,” said Emma Brindal, a climate justice campaigner coordinator for Friends of the Earth.
http://epw.senate.gov/public/i.....59494b48a6
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 6:22PM
Why do we have a tax system that taxes (penalizes) things that are good for society, like working (the income tax), creating jobs (the corporate tax), buying things (sales tax) and owning property (real estate tax)? Why shouldn't we tax things that actually cost society money?
HoHo is right. Impinging motives is a very weak logical argument. You attacked Friedman for the same thing.
Ross Kaminsky| 9.19.11 @ 6:33PM
I assume you mean impugning motives...
Actually, it's not weak. It's very important when it comes to matters of politics and economics to understand what someone's motives are. This is quite different from science where motives should be irrelevant (but clearly aren't in this particular area of scientific discussion.)
You have the beginning of a point with your question about taxes, but you lose it when you assume that CO2 emissions "cost society money". I simply don't agree with your premise.
Furthermore, even if I did agree, you have to ask "compared to what?" Analysis of Waxman-Markey, for example, suggests that it would impact climate by less than 1/10th of a degree (C) by the middle of the century at a truly massive economic cost.
Here's Heritage's assessment of the costs. Even if you want to divide by 2, or by 10!, they're far far too expensive for any potential benefit.
http://www.heritage.org/resear.....man-markey
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 7:21PM
The National Academy of Sciences has estimated the costs to society from burning fossil fuels is $120 billion per year, and that is NOT counting the effects of climate change. http://www8.nationalacademies......rdID=12794
I personally think Waxman-Markey is a beast. Though I support it if the alternative is nothing, I don't love it.
\Three things in response to your particular point >> (1) anything we do in the U.S. is only going to have a limited effect. We need global action especially with the direction China and the other BRIC countries are heading. But that's not an excuse for doing nothing. We'll never be able to convince another country if we don't get our own house in order.
(2) Of course given the warming in the pipeline, any actions we take now aren't going to have a huge effect for decades. All the more reason to get started now, I would argue.
(3) Many believe the emission-reduction goals of W-M were too modest, especially the scientists.
Trinacria| 9.19.11 @ 7:56PM
And how many economists do they have on staff at the National Academy of Sciences?
By the way, they seem to be curiously silent on the subject of the economic BENEFITS to society of burning fossil fuels. Perhaps its because they're so enormous as to be incalculable. In either event, it seems rather disengenuous of them to present the gross, rather than the net, impact.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 8:20PM
Trinacria -- Respectfully, you are blinded by ideology. No matter how much evidence you're presented, you cling to your preconceived ideas. The National Academies is an independent group of experts, and it was actually their National Research Council arm of the Academies that did this report. And yes, it does include economists.
Trinacria| 9.20.11 @ 2:05PM
Buzz,
Thank you for your respectful reply. With equal respect, I'm quite familiar with the National Academy of Sciences; the question was rhetorical and intended to point out what I regard as a curious limitation in the analysis.
Any economic analysis of the impact of a given phenomenon must deal in terms of the net effect (financial cost vs. financial benefit); limiting one's analysis to the cost without consideration of the quantifiable benefits precludes meaningful assessment of the total economic impact. If you'll pardon the admittedly simple (and strained) analogy, this would be like adding up the annual costs of my investments and drawing a conclusion regarding the financial impact without considering the returns on the investment. Of course the cost will seem high when there's no counterbalancing benefit.
Surely you don't think this is an unreasonable expectation?
chemman| 9.19.11 @ 8:03PM
What exactly are you doing personally to stop sucking on the teat of big energy? Don't talk about what others believe or what you say you believe. Tell be how you walk the talk.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 8:14PM
Not enough chemman, I don't do nearly enough.
Bruce Berger| 9.19.11 @ 9:24PM
Let's assume there are two different people on opposite sides of the globe, emitting the exact same amount of CO2. Even in your view of the world, I think it is safe to assume that any negative effects of their respective activities cancel each other out. So, what is the point of taxing each person, when their externalities cancel out? In a two-person world of the type I have just described there would be no need for a carbon tax.
Now, two people with two different carbon emissions may necessitate a carbon tax to compensate the lower user for the negative effect on his/her existence from the greater use of the other. In such an example, potentially a case could be made to use the tax proceeds to compensate one human from the excesses of another.
However, I see very few people advocating the use of a carbon tax for such a purpose. Instead, in almost every carbon tax scenario that I have seen the carbon tax proceeds seem to be targeted to be the property of the state.
It is just a trojan horse to increase the size of the state. That is why I have a problem with the carbon tax.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 9:48PM
Collins (R) and Cantwell (D) proposed (in a short 39 pages) a cap-and-dividend bill that would return 75% of revenue collected to the public in the form of lower taxes. Murkowski (R) almost saved the Kerry-Lieberman-Graham bill last year by attempting to transform it into a revenue-neutral carbin tax. Corker and Alexander, both GOP senators from Tennessee, have both supported versions of a revenue-neutral carbon tax. Al Gore thinks we should reduce the income tax rate by precisely the same about we tax carbon ("tax what you burn, not what you earn"). And my proposal is closer to that of James Hansen, clean and simple revenue-neutral carbon tax where revenue collected is distributed directly back to the public. Those are just the ones off the top of my head, but the idea of a revenue-neutral carbon tax has been floated by many.
Bruce Berger| 9.19.11 @ 10:02PM
Yet, the bill that came closest to passing was the one where proceeds would have gone to the state. Watch what people do, not what they say.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:46PM
I'm not going to defend Waxman-Markey, because I thought it was a monstrosity myself. But 80% of the allowances would have been given away for free, and the bulk of the collected revenue was to go to impacted consumers and displaced workers. At least that's my recollection, I haven't studied that bill for awahile since it dies in the Senate last Fall.
George S| 9.19.11 @ 10:26PM
What Al Gore thinks is immaterial as long as the 16th Amendment is in place. Won't be too long before we have both a carbon tax and an income tax.
And by the way, why would government go through all the trouble to collect a tax from one end and give it back in the other? Answer: because they will give it back to political interests.
We are not stupid: any extra money that comes out of our pockets will wind up in someone else's who didn't work for it creating a good or a service WE NEED. That is the end game here and we are not buying this happy bullshit anymore.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:47PM
The government should go through the trouble as a way to disincentivize fossil fuel use and internalize some of the societal costs that fossil fuel combustion causes.
George S| 9.19.11 @ 10:59PM
That power was never given to the federal government by our Constitution. Fossil fuels are taxed heavily but we still use them because without energy we starve, freeze and become immobilized. Is that a 'societal cost' of less concern than a warmer climate?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:10PM
I'm not sure about your Constitution, but mine gives Congress the power to lat and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises ...
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:10PM
"lay" and collect
william| 9.19.11 @ 11:35PM
I think George has a point. I've read your posts on a carbon tax and they are reasonable -- which isn't to say I fully agree with them. But George is right, we 've become a society whose politics runs on "soft" corruption: the implicit understanding that if I direct government money to you, you will support me for office, by vote if not also by contribution. The Foundinf fathers believed this was corruption justifying ( in part) a revolution.
william| 9.19.11 @ 11:35PM
I think George has a point. I've read your posts on a carbon tax and they are reasonable -- which isn't to say I fully agree with them. But George is right, we 've become a society whose politics runs on "soft" corruption: the implicit understanding that if I direct government money to you, you will support me for office, by vote if not also by contribution. The Foundinf fathers believed this was corruption justifying ( in part) a revolution.
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 11:43PM
I agree with your comments on politics and government corruption. In fact, I think it is precisely that corruption that has prevented any meaningful action on climate change. I'm not sure why that prevents us from writing a law that specifically directs where collected money will be spent.
William| 9.19.11 @ 6:50PM
I don't know if you're right, but you deserve credit for hanging in there.
Occam's Tool| 9.22.11 @ 5:37PM
Whoever needed to fart on this blog, please do so. The gas is already there, and ya kanna break the laws of biophysics, man.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 5:41PM
Progs-They can't even predict tomorrows weather and you believe them about the weather for the next several years, WOW.
gary| 9.19.11 @ 6:37PM
Does anyone remember who it was that made this joke?
In twenty years, Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" will be the "Reefer Madness" of our time.
no hussein 2012| 9.19.11 @ 6:42PM
Ross Kaminsky, good column.
Ross Kaminsky| 9.19.11 @ 6:49PM
I must admit that I was unaware of the fallout from and furor over Spencer's article which was the subject of the Forbes article I linked to.
While it's certainly not shown that Spencer was wrong, I would have used another example of recent science which calls into question the alarmists' theories.
For example, recent work at CERN also raises interesting questions about climate science...and CERN is staying far away from the politics:
http://www.idealtaxes.com/post3425.shtml
And even this one has people who say that the findings aren't big enough to involve climate change:
http://www.physorg.com/news/20.....uzzle.html
Anyway, using a piece which has that level of question about it is an unnecessary distraction to my arguments, so for those who agree with my take on the issue overall, I do apologize for that oversight. And I thank those who pointed out the controversy to me.
Ross Kaminsky| 9.19.11 @ 6:50PM
The debate between the questioned study's author and his critics (and supporters) is quite interesting and can be found here:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/20.....our-paper/
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 7:25PM
An honest mistake, I would never impugn your motives. But it does show you should read more than one side of the debate. And at least you didn't overstate the results of the CERN experiments, as I've seen many skeptics do.
Hank Rearden| 9.19.11 @ 7:44PM
This is Tom Friedman's house...
http://wonkette.com/413811
As a capitalist, I would have to say, more power to him. But, isn't it a bit strange that these climate agitators like Friedman and Algore have not carbon footprints, but HUGE carbon footprints? After all, he could live in an apartment in NYC and take public transportation to work without sacrificing himself. That is what NYC is set up for!
On climate change itself. If it is a science, can't we have a citation of the paper or papers that are key to this argument, so we can all read them? Perhaps the math would be too difficult for a lot of us to understand, but at least we could see what the reasoning and the data are. And even complicated math one can work one's way through in many cases.
BenzieBen| 9.19.11 @ 9:01PM
The author points out that our atmosphere is approximately 78% nitrogen and 21% oxygen. Of the remaining 1%, more than 90% is Argon and .0016% is carbon dioxide. What he does not mention that Friedman's columns about science consist of 32% bad logic and 68% fecal matter.
Friedman is well prepared to lecture us on high-level science because his major was Mediterranean Studies.
Ross goes on to explain that, because the "greenhouse effect" is logarithmic, an additional 1% increase in carbon dioxide has less impact on temperatures than the previous 1% increase.
Similarly, each column authored by Friedman has less impact on the American public than the previous one.
Interstellar Bill| 9.19.11 @ 9:49PM
Buzz is typical of Warmistas who incessantly recite how the warmer air 'holds more water'.
Rather, physical law merely says that it CAN hold more water, but whether it does or not is an entirely empirical matter, not the syllogism so deceitfully smuggled in by this tiresome mantra. (Study the entry for 'Data' in an encylopedia.)
Buzz, go check the real world, where absolute humidity has been CONSTANT. This is because rising CO2 reduces transpiration water-losses, so that global relative humidity has declined from what is was in colder prior decades.
Also, did you know the world's deserts are shrinking due to rising CO2?
See, the planet is already healing!
Once you strip away the bogus extreme-weather accusations, all the Warmistas have left is their by-now-hoary sea-level screams. Too bad it's declining. (Warmistas call it a mere pause.)
I only want one thing from the learned Buzz:
Name your AGW falsification-criterion, which every theory must have if it is truly scientific.
I propose an unmistakeable Little Ice Age by 2020. (Check the early 1300's.)
What say you, Buzz?
Buzz B| 9.19.11 @ 10:27PM
You are of course correct Interstellar Bill, that the statement that 'warmer air holds more water' is imprecise. It's a shorthand, just like GHGs "trap heat" when actually they absorb and reflect radiant energy. But I think it's pretty well-settled that water vapor is a positive feedback, both in theory and in observation. See http://www.nasa.gov/topics/ear.....ming.html. As the temperature of the atmosphere rises, more water is evaporated from ground storage (rivers, oceans, reservoirs, soil). Because the air is warmer, the absolute humidity can be higher (which is where the shorthand comes from that the air is able to 'hold' more water when it's warmer), leading to more water vapor in the atmosphere. As a greenhouse gas, the higher concentration of water vapor is then able to absorb more thermal IR energy radiated from the Earth, thus further warming the atmosphere. But it is certainly true that measurements of absolute humidity are hard to come by (I'm not aware of your studies showing that it has remained constant).
I am aware of studies that suggest AGW is causing deserts to shrink, and others reaching a contrary conclusion. It is a legitimate area of uncertainty.
C'mon, sea levels have risen steadily for three decades. The fact that they've taken a slight downturn the last six months is most likely attributable to la nina, not any change in the long-term trend.
More fundamentally, the fact that not every prediction of every article over the past two decades has come true does not logically refute AGW theory. A great many projections have come true, and a great many are even more severe than predicted. Certainly, all the precise impacts and the speed at which they come to fruition continue to be matters of scientific inquiry.
I've seen this falsification stuff on various blogs recently. I understand it's part of the last step of the scientific process, and that AGW doesn't fit nicely within some of that process due to the absence of a 'control' earth where all the components of the climate can be tested. But the bottom line, if we have several years of temps back down at average 20th century levels without any natural forcing as an explanation, then I would say AGW theory has been falsified.
Interstellar Bill| 9.20.11 @ 2:48AM
Buzz
Your phrase is telling:
'without any natural forcing as an explanation'
sure sounds like a weasel-out
(what would an un-natural negative forcing be?)
Or perhaps your're thinking of cosmic-ray induced albedo increases.
From they way the Warmistas react to that idea you can be sure they regard it
as un-natural. Do you?
You can look on WUWT for the humidity facts.
What you implicitly admit is that any immanent cooling, however you explain it, means that CO2 is relativly weak.
Don't you agree that a doubling-sensitivity of only 1 deg C would falsify AGW?
And the sea-level decline is older than 6 months.
None of the doomsayers predicted it.
If it continues for 10 more years,
will that falsify AGW?
30 more years?
Sherlock| 9.19.11 @ 10:03PM
I do hope some of the green people read this article. they need to educate themselves about their religion. Stop reading the NYT, because it is rare to find intelligence in the articles there. Liberalism is leaving our society, but some will hold on to it, even if it means being buried with it.
Mertsj| 9.19.11 @ 10:27PM
What do you think of the blood letters of G. Washington's day???
That's exactly the way you global warming freaks are going to be remembered.
Mertsj| 9.19.11 @ 10:30PM
And furthermore, men always look for a god. Having abandoned the God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, they cling to global warming as their idol of choice and think they are enlightened.
Dan King| 9.19.11 @ 10:39PM
I mostly agree with this article, but will correct a minor point. The absolute quantity of CO2 is not the issue - it is the change in relative quantities. Thus the "problem" (if there is one) is the ratio 390 to 320 - not the absolute magnitudes of those numbers.
But the other point is that the ratio has to be measured logarithmically. Thus one worries about increases by factors of 10, not by only a few. For example, a hydrogen cyanide concentration in the parts per trillion would probably not be harmful. But increase that to parts per billion and folks might start to panic.
Justin| 9.19.11 @ 10:58PM
Great Article!!!
Thank you for not just pointing out how stupid the fear-mongering, left-wing, let's-create-green-jobs-even-if-it-makes-zero-sense crowd is.
Also, thanks for the great links to the other articles and real science that backs your viewpoints!
POST American| 9.19.11 @ 10:59PM
--------------------BOTTOM LINE----------------------
---Oh yes, the 'carbon tax' thing, which such
'CON--servatives' as Rick Perry and SUB-Mitt
ROME-KNEE have given support to.
leland | 9.19.11 @ 11:07PM
Ignorance is a a rich mans best friend. Your article sir, is toxic.
Ross Kaminsky| 9.20.11 @ 12:08AM
I presume you're talking to me, leland.
Please tell me how ignorance benefits Bill Gates or Steve Jobs or Warren Buffett? Your statement is meaningless tripe of the worst sort.
Dick Nome| 9.20.11 @ 9:12PM
Whoever that guy is Ross, he may not realize we are Carbon based life forms and CO2 is a necessity to sustain life.
Russell | 9.20.11 @ 3:23AM
A renaissance man like Ross Kaminsky stoop to slopping toxic schlock across the airwaves of the American Heartland ? Almost unimaginable:
http://tinypic.com/r/11klbvs/7
JP| 9.20.11 @ 7:27AM
"I'm not sure what "plan" you're referring to that the Dems want to pass with respect to CO2. If you're referring to cap-and-trade (a la Waxman-Markey), then I'd remind you that was the system that Bush Sr adopted to deal with SOx and acid rain, and that Bush Jr. tried to adopt for NOx and SO2 (before a court struck it down). It is also the plan that McCain had been introducing for yearsin the Senate before he got.."
Nothing like strawmen to move things along. We're not talking about, poisonous aresols but CO2. Last time I checked CO2 was not considered a poison. Stay on track; stay focused. I know it is difficult, but even Progressives can do it.
Taxing CO2 is akin to taking nitrogen in our atmosphere, or water vapor. But, you must hand it to Progressives. They are very creative in thier search to tap into new revenue streams.
Rick Smith | 9.20.11 @ 11:21AM
I must while I simply doubted all the crap in & around global warming or climate change or whatever name they come up with - I just trusted the fact that anything algore says must be a lie and directed towards the moron's that surround him. I am thankfully for this article pointing out something I hadn't thought of and that being the air being more nitrogen & oxygen than anything else. So we're talking about less than 1% of our atmosphere - truly amazing. My other thought was I had learned in grade school we are closer to the sun in the winter yet colder climate prevails while being closer to the sun - so I kind of thought that perhaps the sun actually had something to do with our warming and cooling. But there I go again!
dw| 9.20.11 @ 6:39PM
The global warming hoax is nothing more that a front for the socialist continued assault on capitalism and the destruction of the United States economy. Those who support it are either inter connected to this effort or the usual dupes conned into taking the field on behalf of our enemy.
1.) In 1986 Patrick Moore, one of the main founders of Greenpeace quit the group citing the take over of the enviormental movement by the neo marxist, who due to fall of the Soviet Union needed another vehicle through which they could continue their war against capitalism. Using enviormental green language to mask their real objectives marxist manipulate scores of naive dimwits in their effort to achieve the destruction of America.
2.) In 2009 the "Climatgate" scandal erupted, which involved at least 2 prominent AGW scientist Michael Mann and Phil Jones, whos emails were leaked to the public. They showed that the two of them deleted files that had been requested under the Freedom of Information Act concerning a U.N. climate change report. Also it was proven that Mann's Hockey Stick graph, which was extensively used by Al Gore to promote his agenda, purposely left out the warming that occured during the Medieval Period which would counter their claim that it is the advent of the industrial age that has caused man made warming.
3.) More than 31,000 scientist, including over 9,000 PHD's have signed a petition rejecting AGW. Pretty sure that diffuses the claim that the science is settled.
In fact recently Nobel Prize winner for Physics, Dr. Ivar Giaever resigned from the APS and stated in his letter of resignation, " The claim is that temperture has changed from 288. t0 288.8 degrees kelvin in about 150 years, which if true means to me that the temperture has been amazingly stable and both human health and happiness have definitely improved in this "warming period".
4.) Throughout the 20th and into the beginning of the 21st century CO2 emmisions have steadily risen while temperture has not steadily increased. Surface temperture in the 1930's were higher than today and from the 40s through the 70s tempertures declined, which led to the alarmist "chicken littles" to declare we were on the verge of a new ice age otherwise known as "global cooling".
5.) CO2 accounts for .039% of all atmospheric molecules.
- Humans and their activity account for only 3% emmissions each year.
- Since 1998 surface tempertures have declined
- Over the last 150 years avg. tempertures has risen .8 degrees kelvin
There is much more detail and additional information that absolutely disputes man made global warming and shows it for what it really is--An on going attempt to destroy capitalism and by extension America by the neo marxist socilaist left.
POST American| 9.21.11 @ 12:27AM
-----------------BOTTOMLESS LINE-------------------
Putting aside the Eduard de ROT-child 'sourced',
Al Gore fronted, carbon tax, that's to be paid to
the ROT-child owned Bank of International Settlements in
'BASE--ALL' Switzerland
----EVEN, for a moment, putting aside the
awesome Globalization RED China set up and TREASON OP
NOW ----------ONE AND ALL
--look up into those late summer skies
all knitted up with CHEM-trails, take a good
deep whiff, and think--------
----------------------FUKISHIMA------------------------
--------------------------FUKISHIMA--------------------
-----------------------------FUKISHIMA-----------------
Think REAL HARD
--------------------THINK FAST
Marc Jeric| 9.21.11 @ 7:03PM
This global warming conspiracy needs to be put in perspective to be properly understood. This far-left attack by government-paid drones started in the 1970′s with the global cooling scam: we should disarm our nuclear bombers and fill them with soot to be spread over the poles and so prevent those new glaciers from descending south and crushing the New York skyscrapers to dust. When that did not work the same fakers invented the global warming hoax in the 1990′s; we should nationalize all industries and organize a UN-sponsored world socialist government based on “social justice” with the fakers in charge. What with 12 years of substantial cooling the fakers switched to the climate change flimflam in the 2000′s; so whatever happens we should…see above under the global warming hoax. And now we are faced with the cap & trade power grab – but the aim is the same as above. Our socialists, marxists, communists, Hollywood stars, university professors in social and political “sciences”, and environmentalists are all clamoring for action while spurring President Obama ("Tomorrow the oceans will stop rising and the planet will start healing") and his 35 czars/komissars to undertake immediate measures to save the planet – with the same aims as described above.
In the meantime our Mian Stream Media are unanimous in spreading this criminal propaganda daily; the ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NPR, the NY Times, the Washington Post, etc. drive this drivel daily. What is totally ignored are the detailed descriptions of faked data, skewed computer programs, politically revised conclusions by the UN-sponsored far-left clique of biased scientists – all government-paid drones that no private enterprise would hire. Another thing ignored is the “Global Warming Petition” (see Internet) where 31,487 independent US scientists (including 9,029 of them with PhD degrees) dispute decisively the findings of the UN-sponsored panel; also ignored is the “Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change” (see also Internet) where a smaller number of competent world scientists, about 712, including 142 pure climatologists, state the same – i.e., that the man-caused catastrophic global warming is a farce. The books by Christopher Horner, Robert Carter, and AW Montford describing the lies, fakes, phony data, opposite conclusions, redacting by UN political hacks, reverse graphs, etc., have exposed this far-left propaganda in painful detail.
In the case of the above mentioned Petition, several "environmentalists" had submitted phony names with phony credentials in order to sabotage that effort. It took several years of painstaking and expensive effort (we contributed a lot of private money for that) to clean up the list from those saboteurs and verify all academic and professional data of the signatories.
To put this whole conspiracy in terms of numbers, let me say that the projected world-threatening increase of carbon dioxide of 100 ppm (parts per million) by the end of this century would increase the termal absorptivity of the atmosphere by one-eighth of one percent; that is the definition of something totally negligible. On the other hand the sun cycles of cooling and heating are thousands of times more powerful with regard to the carbon dioxide in the air; when the sun is cold the oceans absorb many millions of tons of it; and when the sun heats up the oceans release the carbon dioxide in quantities thousands of times bigger than anything the mankind could produce. To illustrate this point in more accessible terms to somebody who who is not a climatologist or a scientist or an engineer; the argument of catastrophic anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming issued by our panic driven socialist/marxist government-paid hacks is like saying that a burp of a lonely wolf in Alaska will transform Florida into a Sahara-like desert - immediately!
As for that bloviating gasbag Al Gore and for Dr. Mann who inverted cause and effect in his "studies" - they should be brought to the The International Court in The Hague on charges of crimes against humanity. And now let us add the name of komrad Krugman to this list of international criminals.
Marc Jeric (signatory of both documents referenced above)
Marc Jeric| 9.21.11 @ 7:07PM
Sorry - I meant Friedman; but keep Krugman as well in the criminal group.
POST American| 9.22.11 @ 12:50AM
-----------SOBERING BOTTOMLESS LINE----------
Forget the inspid Rockefellow front op
Thomas Friedman.
----GET INTO Alan Watt and 'Cutting Through
the Matrix'
CHECK OUT his older shows from 2006/7/8.
He goes all into the, then, coming collapse
and RED China TREASON OP finale.
He even delves into the likelihood of Japan
being taken down by a HAARP sourced seismic
event ---and DEPOP OP combo.
CHECK IT OUT!
---------------------SPREAD THE WORD!