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January 24, 2013 | 9 comments
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Iraq: Playing the Sectarian Crisis Card
January 2, 2013 | 3 comments
At Large
Instability Spreading
The aftershocks of Gaddafi’s downfall are spreading south — and spreading fast.
Since the de facto downfall of the Gaddafi regime, much analysis has justifiably focused on the questions of Libya’s internal dynamics and future stability. However, the possible implications on the security of the wider region, extending south through the Sahel to Nigeria, have been less widely considered.
One cause for concern that should have been raised during NATO’s campaign in Libya was the fact that airstrikes did not target Gaddafi’s vast stockpiles of missiles and other arms. The predictable result of this massive error has been that several arms depots — including one that contains SA-7b Grail heat-seeking missiles imported by the Gaddafi regime from former Soviet bloc countries — have been found looted in Tripoli.
The consequences of this development are very worrying indeed. The greatest danger is that smugglers could hand over these weapons to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which is the local affiliate branch of the jihadist group across northwest Africa and the Sahel. As Peter Bouckaert — emergencies director of Human Rights Watch — put it, “If these [munitions] fall into the wrong hands, they could turn all of North Africa into a no-fly zone.”
AQIM initially began as an anti-government insurgency (also targeting Berber activists) in the Algerian Civil War of the 1990s under the name “Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat,” eventually swearing allegiance to al Qaeda in 2006.
AQIM has since furthered its range of operations southward into Niger, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. The group primarily engages in suicide bombings and other attacks on outposts belonging to the Algerian security forces, and has been involved in kidnappings of foreigners elsewhere (e.g. in December 2009, an Italian couple en route to Burkina Faso were taken hostage by AQIM in Mauritania).
The outcome of the Libyan civil war will no doubt give further impetus for AQIM to step up its attacks on the Algerian government, which made the tactical error of openly backing Gaddafi against the rebel forces and could well see further unrest among the population.
A further problem is posed by the outflow of pro-Gaddafi Touareg fighters from Libya into the country’s southern neighbors. The Touareg are a nomadic Muslim Berber group, whom Gaddafi supported in their insurgency campaigns against the governments of Chad, Mali and Niger. Gaddafi never disguised his hatred of Berber language and culture, but his cooperation and cordial relations with Touareg fighters were partly rooted in his later rhetoric that called for a borderless Islamic republic across the Sahara.
As Tristan McConnell points out, the Touareg have controlled traditional caravan trade routes across the Sahara, now used for arms smuggling and human trafficking. Disgruntled over the loss of support with the overthrow of Gaddafi, mercenaries within the Touareg might forge ties with AQIM, a development that would only strengthen the latter and foster greater security threats to nations like Niger.
Yet perhaps most troubling is the fact that AQIM has recently been establishing contact and financial links with an Islamist group in Nigeria known as “Boko Haram” (meaning “Western Education is Forbidden”). Some members of Boko Haram may also have received training from AQIM militants. If AQIM gets hold of weaponry from Libya, it is probable that some of those arms will be supplied to Boko Haram as well.
Boko Haram, originally founded in 2002, is a group that seeks to transform all of Nigeria into an Islamic state. Among the organization’s “grievances” include the supposed unacceptability of teaching that the Earth is spherical and the “sinful” idea that rain is caused by evaporation and subsequent condensation of water. Boko Haram came to widespread attention in 2009 for its massacres against minority Christians in the north, and it poses a particular threat in a nation that has a sharp sectarian divide between a predominantly Muslim north and a primarily Christian south.
Unfortunately, the Nigerian government has effectively engaged in a policy of appeasement towards Boko Haram, which forced one university in the country’s northeast to close indefinitely in July (and may be aiming to target other universities in the south), bombed police headquarters in Abuja, the capital city, in June, and was responsible for a car bomb attack on the UN headquarters in Nigeria last month, killing 23 people.
On the other hand, as disclosures from Wikileaks cables show, the Nigerian authorities have released known terror suspects — including affiliates of Boko Haram and AQIM — in an attempt to placate Muslim tribal elders in the north, who were supposed to act as parole officers for released detainees.
In light of these trends, consider how much further damage deeper cooperation between Boko Haram and AQIM will do to Nigeria’s stability.
Unfortunately, NATO, which has been spending billions of dollars trying to prevent the return of al Qaeda to Afghanistan (even though the group is hardly likely to want to return there anyway), now appears to have significantly increased the risk of the creation of a strong hotbed of Islamist militancy in a vast region extending from Libya and Algeria down toward Nigeria.
About the Author
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University. His website is http://www.aymennjawad.org.
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Jesse| 9.19.11 @ 6:34AM
AQIM has since furthered its range of operations southward into Niger, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal.
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The Clintidote| 9.19.11 @ 6:56PM
This death cult needs to go - it's time for Allah to die.
Alan Brooks| 9.19.11 @ 7:33PM
Why do pick on them so much? the Germans have been the most wicked of peoples, ever; Israel was created because of them; to this day the Germans still want to control Europe. The Japanese have officially apologized, but not the Germans.
Timothy L. Pennell| 9.19.11 @ 7:07AM
Why did the Chicken, feed the Crocodile?
So that the Crocodile would eat Him, last, of course.
We've heard that a thousand times. Or, at least, some variance of that tale.
Why did the West, help overthrow Khaddafi?
Because they have so much Invested in Libyan OIL, silly.
Why hasn't the Middle East been WIPED OUT? Why do we put up with these people? In any other time in History, there would be all out WAR, for the things they've done. Sarkozy and What's his name, in England. They seek to garnish favour, with the Crocodile. The BELIEVE, when they are told that, THIS TIME, things will be different. That THIS TIME, Freedom and Democracy will prevail. We have nothing to fear but Fear, itself, and never mind the Jihadists, behind the curtain.
They see what has happened in EGYPT. How the Muslim Brotherhood, indeed, has taken control. The Brutalization of that female Reporter was a Prelude of what was about to take place. A WARNING, of things to come.
The ATTACK on Israel's Embassy, was the next shoe to drop. WAR is in the air.
The failure to learn from History, has always been a Death Sentence, and Compassion can, sometimes, be misplaced.
We (The European Powers) could have stopped HITLER, before he began, but we were tired of War, and thought he could be controlled. Millions died.
We (The WEST) could have dismantled the Soviet Union, right after the war. We had the BOMB. But, we didn't. And Millions more were Brutalized and Murdered.
We could have let SERBIA, finish the Job. But, we intervened.
We hounded RUSSIA, for putting down an Enemy (The Chechens) who would, soon after, take over a Russian Elementary School and MURDER over 300 CHILDREN.
We could have stopped this in it's infancy.
Instead, we made a Deal with the Devil.
Islam is a CANCER. And, it is not "Radical Islam". It is ALL ISLAM. It has nothing in common with Christianity. Nothing in common with Judaism. Nothing in common with Buddhism. It is not a Religion of Peace. It is incapable of Compassion or Mercy. It knows nothing of "Do unto others", Kindness, or Charity.
Islam is CONVERT or DIE. Islam is KILL or be KILLED. Their Prophet was a Cold Blooded Killer, who FORCED his beliefs on to others, with the Sword. And, it remains this way, today.
Like I said: Islam is a Cancer. You cannot co-exists with Cancer. You cannot get by, just by treating it, and you can't win it over.
It must be CUT OUT. It must be Irradiated and Destroyed. And you have to get ALL OF IT, or it will come back. It will SPREAD.
Get the Picture?
Juan Jose Morales-Castillo | 9.19.11 @ 1:50PM
I wish I could contradict you, but every day since 30 May 1972--when 17 fellow Puerto Ricans were murdered in Lod Airport by associates of a Palestine group--I have seen constant evidence that what you say is all too true.
oldfart| 9.19.11 @ 7:39AM
These idiots (radical islam) will destory their own house to burn down their neighbors.
Timothy L. Pennell| 9.19.11 @ 6:32PM
Remember what Alfred told Bruce Wayne, while attempting to "explain" why the JOKER, did what he does.
"Some men just want to watch the World burn."
tsd| 9.19.11 @ 7:59AM
As we chase the rats, they just find a new hole to trash and a new place to make miserable. Time to make a new plan on how to deal with the middle east... maybe get out and let them fight amongst themselves??
Bob K.| 9.19.11 @ 8:23AM
This is just another example of the results of our foreign policy of trying to make "the world safe for Democracy," which hasn't changed since Woodrow Wilson uttered that stupid and fateful phrase.
The Bruce| 9.20.11 @ 12:06AM
Granted, the policy does have its inherent flaws, but I think Europe and Japan turned out okay.
I think the litmus test for how successful such an operation would be would be to look at how civilized a culture was to start with. Europe and Japan were highly civilized prior to WWII.
On the other hand, if we're trying to make the world safe for Democracy in places occupied by a bunch of mindless savages, whose wet dreams include stoning women, killing people in the name of Allah, and seeing every last Jew's head on the end of a spike, we might have a problem there.
Intelligent Design| 9.19.11 @ 8:31AM
But not to worry. Per NATO and Zero Obama the rebel forces in Libya are the good guys.
Harry the Horrible| 9.19.11 @ 8:58AM
Watch the Caliphate grow under our very noses.
The leaders of these countries might be murderous, brutal dictators. But at least they're secular, PREDICTABLE, murderous, brutal dictators. We need to support them. The last thing we need is Islamic Democracy: One MAN, one vote, ONCE.
Chuck| 9.19.11 @ 9:55AM
Nigeria has significant oil reserves, the ultimate prize, something this article failed to mention. The Muslims know oil is the Achilles Heel of the west hence the contrived instability and final seizure of oil rich Nigeria.
loulou| 9.19.11 @ 10:16AM
If we suspended foreign aid to this problematic African "countries" wouldn't they just wither on the vine?
Really, all Africa has is natural resources.
Al Adab| 9.19.11 @ 1:45PM
Thank you for an insightful analysis. While we may refer to Libya and others as countries, westerners need to understand they are not nation-states in the european sense of the word. As we see in Afghanistan and Pakistan there are many tribal areas where those relations supercede the concept of a national identity. Loyalty is foremost to the tribe or clan or the leader rather than to the nation. As with Sudan which finally split in two based on identity lines many of these countries may suffer the same fate.
Clint| 9.19.11 @ 2:00PM
Who Cares About Libya?
We Shouldent Even Be In Libya, We Have No Vital National Interest there
Once Again, Our RINO-CINO Israel-Firsters In The Government Are Taking Their Orders From The Pro-Israel Gefilte Fish Lobby.
The Tea Party Rebellion Escalates.
Rise Up.
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 4:11PM
C'mon Girls !
Let's Do A Ricky Perry Algore Cheerleaders Cheer.
We Want Bibi !
He's Our Man !
If He Can't Do It !
Ricky Perry Can !
Gooooooooooo Israel !
Woooooooooooo !
Yaaaaaaaaaaaay!
Doctor Right| 9.19.11 @ 4:20PM
Yeah...That looks like something I'd post, right?
Riiiiiiiiiiiiight.....
Hi, Clint! FYI, the village called...They want you back.
SpiralArchitect| 9.19.11 @ 5:41PM
Executive order by the POTUS with no oversight - acting alone. You are displaying your inetpitude yet again.
ABNCP| 9.19.11 @ 2:28PM
WOW. What an insightful article. Who knew?
Just another complete botch in international politics by the incompetant Obama administration. This disaster of a President either is the most incompetant boob we have ever had in the White House or everything he has been doing is a part of an agenda that was put in place prior to his being elected. After reading D'Souza, Corsi and many other good men, my money is on these disasters being part of his agenda.
cicero| 9.19.11 @ 4:08PM
This is almost too funny - except it is too sad. So, we are in the middle eastern countries, and supporting not only their fratricidal activities, but giving them the wherewithall to export their murderous idiologies, for the sake of their oil. At the same time, we keep discovering reserves of the stuff that had doubled our previous estimates. We are discovering further deposits every time we turn a corner. But, we will not exploit our own. If you tried to convince any sane society of such a policy, no one would believe you.
If all we did was purchase oil on the open market, and put in place an international order that refused to allow thee sale of weapons, we would be much ahead of the game. The muslim regimes cannot produce weapons on their own. For goodness sake, they don't produce anything. Even their oil is extracted by foreign contractors. This will leave the to their own devices - spears and swords. The press pictures show them all armed with Kalikshnikofs (I think I have the spelling close). These are weapons left over from the cold war.
We make a huge mistake when we try to transpose our culture and mores on them. They see the world differently.
Al Adab| 9.19.11 @ 4:19PM
Cicero,
It is indeed sad and would be funny but for the human price to be paid. This leadership and administration, (and who should know better having been raised in non-western lands?) fails to understand that all cultures are not equal and that attempts to impress a particular set of cultural values on those without the foundation for them is doomed to fail.
john dubose| 9.19.11 @ 5:53PM
It will take at least a generation for the disfunctional autocratic regeims of the middle east to be removed by the people there. It will also include a lot of spilled blood. All we in the West can do is watch and try to limit the damage to our own societies. Maybe we can help them a little around the edges.
It is and will remain a very complicated and frustrating effort.
As for the oil, just buy it when they set the price low enough.
Buck Ofama| 9.19.11 @ 8:56PM
Al Chimpout!
Alla akbar an shit, no muh sayn?
Al Adab| 9.19.11 @ 9:33PM
Ummm, frankly no. However, I have often found myself in agreement with the sentiments if not the language and style of your posts these last few weeks.
POST American| 9.19.11 @ 10:52PM
---------------------BOTTOM LINE---------------------
"Understand, Fremasonry IS a religion,
an ABSOLUTE religion of never ending
revolution and destruction of all that was
----ALLL in the service of the 'Great Work'."
-ALAN WATT
------Does anyone DARE raise an argument
as we behold the fold of our long infiltrated
churches before social and moral degradation
and collapse ---and broad daylight, along with
4 decades of carefully calculated TREASON
viz a viz the US taxpayer underwritten and enabled
RED China 'miracle'.
"We are using MASSIVE third world
(largely muslim) immigration to DESTROY
British culture beyond repair, once and
for all ---FOREVER."
Fmr PM TONY BLAIR
(Daily Mail interview 2005)
And putting aside this latest, no doubt provocateured
Middle East mess ----is everyone
catching Greenspan blaming the
American worker for our problems --as he
calls for open flood gates for immigration?
------------BETTER WAKE UP KIDDIES!
-------------WE ARE BEING DESTROYED-----------
------------------------NO JOKE--------------------------
Dan Mathewson| 9.20.11 @ 6:29PM
I don't believe you. What's the exact date of that Daily Mail interview? Month and day as there were three hundred and sixty-five days in 2005.
mbt en vente | 9.20.11 @ 4:46AM
no!
POST American| 9.21.11 @ 12:18AM
-----Daily Mail article 2005.
(SEE ALAN WATT)
And further on, Gordon Brown admitted
the floodgates were opened to utterly humiliate
the right.
And remember, RIIA/CFR
'CON--serve-IT--ive' front op
Maggie Thatcher was the one to kick
it all off ------back inthe 70's!
LarryG| 9.21.11 @ 5:30PM
Libya and Gaddafi
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XorKTwkFPDU