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At Large
David vs. Goliaths Galore
Can a small country defeat threats of superpower level — without itself being a superpower?
Can a small country defeat threats of superpower level — without itself being a superpower?
The answer to that question may well decide Israel’s future. One encounters among Israelis quiet confidence that the immense challenges Israel faces will not overwhelm the Jewish state. Begin, though, with the many dangers. The Arab Spring has sprung, and is too far along to be returned to the status quo ante of January 2011: the long winter of dictatorial rule over submissive masses. Its direction is country-specific, as were the revolutions of 1848. But like those revolutions against stagnant absolute monarchies, they are destined for an unlovely ending. In the 1848 cases, the re-establishment of monarchical rule allowed tottering empires to endure another two-thirds of a century. Then came the Great War, unleashing upon the world the twin terrors of Nazi and Communist totalitarianisms that gave the “Bloody Century” its infamous name, and now the third terror that darkens the 21st century in its infancy, that of Islamism in its various malignant forms.
That Israel is in the geographic midst of these upheavals forces its leaders and people to think without illusions — or, at least, with far fewer than common in other Western countries. Save for the ideological Left, no one in Israel who is seriously sentient about world affairs thinks the “peace process” anything but moribund. There will be no peace with the Palestinians now, or anytime soon. The furies unleashed by Islamism’s many forms make compromise acceptance of the Jewish state a fantasy.
Israel itself has myriad vulnerabilities. Three of them are: geography, topography, and demography. Israel’s geography is vertical. slender, and cinched at the waist. A unitary Palestinian state uniting Gaza with the West Bank would cleave Israel in two. Topography is no cheerier: Israel is flat, bounded by the Gulf of Aqaba in the south, which leads to the Red Sea; by Lebanon and Syria to the north, the former a hostile Hezbollah-dominated state and the latter a hostile secularist tyranny, albeit one in peril of toppling; and sandwiched between mountains to the east and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Demography is equally daunting: much of Israel’s population is concentrated in its middle, which includes not only Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa, but other consequential cities. Its 7.5 million people include three major groups: Non-Orthodox Jews, Israeli Arabs, and the Orthodox. Most of the heavy lifting is done by the non-Orthodox Jews, while the Orthodox are supported as they study and pray. The Arabs, some 20 percent of the population, are simmering with resentment at discrimination and disproportionate poverty, but at least to date Sharia law is a minimal irritant, unlike the grave threat it poses in Europe. The three groups have equal one-third shares of Israel’s current first-graders.
The country’s water supply is precarious. One-third of Israel’s water comes from the Golan Heights region in the northeast, captured in two stages from Syria, in the 1967 and 1973 wars (not all of it—Syria retained some territory). Israel annexed its share of the Golan in 1981. Water had been the focal points of Israel from the start. With 20 inches of annual rainfall spread across 28 days of annual rain, Israel husbands its water carefully. It flows down from the mountains of the Golan and supplies the Jordan River; 75 percent of Israel’s water is recycled, with the next ranking recycler Spain with 22 percent. Few people know that the early 1960s “Water War” was over what amounts to Israel’s lifeline. The first attack carried out by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was on the National Water Carrier on New Year’s Day 1965—more than two years before Israel took the West Bank after the 1967 war. The PLO’s goal was to “liberate” Israel itself from Jewish control. All credible evidence shows that Palestinians by overwhelming majorities, and all their leaders, pursue that goal today, undiminished.
Add now to this dolorous picture three other factors. First, the growing threat of nuclear weapons that a nuclearizing Iran will likely acquire will tilt the regional balance towards Iran; it will ignite a regional nuclear arms race, with Saudi Arabia and others spending petrodollars to buy bombs from Pakistan, North Korea, or any other willing seller. Worse still, a small salvo of nuclear warheads landing inside Israel would devastate the country, beyond plausible recovery. The United States could survive, albeit gravely wounded, the loss of New York, Washington, D.C., and Chicago better than Israel could deal with the loss of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa. Small countries cannot survive multi-bomb nuclear attacks. Second, the Internet is a hotbed of anti-Israel propaganda, much of it jihadist and viciously anti-Semitic; the demonization of Israel fosters the literal delegitimation of the Jewish state. And third is a weak American President, sympathetic to Muslims — Barack Obama has called the muezzin call to prayers the “most beautiful sound” in the world — and harsh towards the Jewish state, preferring to “lead from behind.” This means that at least until noon on January 20, 2013, Israel will have to watch its diplomatic back as to its number one ally. Cooperation between military and intelligence entities is close and convivial, but frosty diplomacy tilting towards the Palestinians has put Israel on the defensive. A second Obama term would be disastrous for Israel — and for America as well.
So Israel has a rough row to hoe in a rough neighborhood. The Furies will not subside anytime soon, and dangers will increase before, if ever, they recede.
About the Author
Letter to the Editor View all comments (21) | Leave a comment
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Bob K.| 9.7.11 @ 7:07AM
As long as the United States has the political will and the money to sustain it's support of Israel everything will be OK. Europe and the rest of the West has neither of those ingredients.
Mike D.| 9.7.11 @ 8:02AM
Isreal also has an estimated 300+ nuclear warheads, more than enough to completely destroy any agressors who might contemplate lobbing a few at Isreal. The equation is this: if Isreal ceases to exist, the middle east ceases to exist, its just that simple. Isreal has adopted a never again philosophy and its this. If the state of Isreal is in jeopardy of falling and being overun and destroyed they WILL use their nuclear arsenal to its fullest against any and all targets. There is no doubt in anybodies mind that they mean it. In 1948 when Ben Gurion took power they made it their first priority to aquire a nuclear weapons program to insure their own survival. The battle cry was "never again" in reference to the holocaust in Germany and Poland during WW2.
Mike D.| 9.7.11 @ 8:13AM
And is Isreal ceases to exist, so does Mecca, Messina, Tehran, Damascus, the Aswan dam, Cairo, and the rest of key middle east targets. Sadat knew this in the 73 war when he limited his offensive to Sinai targets and the recovery of the Peninsula so as not to trigger any potential nuclear response by attacking Isreali targets directly.
David W| 9.7.11 @ 8:45AM
And if this happens (Israel taking out the middle east) the US should just sit back and watch and do nothing to help the middle east. Let it remain thousands of square miles of fused glass as a reminder of what evil in any form (Facism, Islamism) causes.
Mike D.| 9.7.11 @ 9:16AM
If anybody in Iran or any other country in that region thinks victory conditions of 10's of millions killed, a radioactive wasteland, living conditions for survivors of third century level proportions after the destruction of Isreal is acceptable then these people are bigger lunatics that we can imagine. David has a doomsday size stone in that sling bag and he's had it set in his sling several times.
Mike D.| 9.7.11 @ 9:18AM
AND the oil supply and economy of the world goes up a fireball with it.
elixelx| 10.10.11 @ 4:36AM
Mike ... just a little thought experiment...If Harry Truman had told Hirohito early in August 1945 that the US had a weapon which could kill and maim hundreds of thousands for generations to come, what would the infallible Emperor have replied?
My guess? "Prove it".
So Harry didn't ask; he just went ahead and showed em...
Now, what do you think A'jad will reply when he hears the Israelis threaten to use the "Samson Option"? "Prove it," he'll say "My scripture teaches us that Jews are cowards, dog and pigs. they will never ever use nuclea...!" KA..BOOOOM!
Harry the Horrible| 9.7.11 @ 10:19AM
Neah.
We should grab what oil fields remain accessible, divvy them where diplomatically necessary and run the surviving Arabs off into the desert. Sort a return to the late 19th and early 20th century colonialism.
Bob K.| 9.7.11 @ 10:49AM
Everything will not be OK if Israel uses nuclear weapons. The world beyond the near east also includes China and Russia.
PolishKnight| 9.7.11 @ 11:19AM
From wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Holocaust
"About five million Jews were killed there [central and eastern Europe], including three million in occupied Poland and over one million in the Soviet Union. Hundreds of thousands also died in the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Yugoslavia and Greece."
Ken (Old Texican)| 9.7.11 @ 7:57AM
Bob,
you might wnt to get my book and see how this may play out
"America Alone Said NO"
www.txbooks.blogspot.com
Dai Alanye | 9.7.11 @ 11:35AM
Or get my books, which don't try to push amateurish political philosophy. And they're available )most of them) for free. Just let me know what you want to read.
Ken (Old Texican)| 9.7.11 @ 12:37PM
Dai,
anything for "free" is worth exactly .......ZERO.
Get mommie to "loan" you the price of my book. ((You can get an instant refund.)
www.americaalonesaidno.com
john786| 9.7.11 @ 5:06PM
This is a blog not a sales opportunity Ken to push your ridiculous book. Anyway, not been raptured yet. A shame. This is a ridiculous article written by a Zionist loony. I see the future and it looks Palestinian to me. Why fight History. Inshallah next year in AL-Quds.
Simon Templar| 9.7.11 @ 7:35PM
There will never be a Palestine as there has never been a Palestine. Palestine was a Roman invention. The last sovereign nation existed there over 2,000 years ago. It has been occupied ever since, until 1948. Yeah, why fight history?
Try it and you will be vaporized. They will use them. So, go back to your tent and beat your wife.
Simon Templar| 9.7.11 @ 7:38PM
By the way, you and your ilk are too stupid to manuever anything that is even remotely logical and sane. You blew your chance to have your own state in 1948 and threw it away.
Skippy| 9.8.11 @ 3:04PM
If Israel unleashes their nukes on the great cities of the ME, think of the rich cultural heritage the world will lose.
The art, the architecture, the libraries and concert halls of the Arab nations are the finest in the world.
And the literature!
Who can forget the first time they read an Arab novel?
Most of the technological and medicinal advances of the past 2,000 years have been made by Arabs working in Arabian research facilities as well.
There is too much of the world's rich cultural heritage at risk to allow Israel to threaten it over a silly border dispute.
Maybe the Israelis should just march themselves into the sea and avoid the risk of damaging the iconic skylines of those Arab cities and oilfields.
Mike D.| 9.8.11 @ 9:14PM
Maybe the Arabs should leave them the F2ck alone! Hows that sound idiot. Play with the bull and you get the horns. Maybe you should send an email to that Islamic nutjob running Iran that threatens them with annilhilation weekly and clue HIM in about saving the arab cultural instead of trying to usher in some kind of muslim messiah according to that 6th century barbaric religion he follows.
JimH| 9.7.11 @ 1:14PM
Once you have nukes or some other effective WMD you are pretty safe from external overthrow. This is why evil regimes try so assiduously to get them, especially now as we no longer allow these dictators to quietly retire upon being deposed. For a humorous take on the David versus Goliath scenario I recommend The Mouse That Roared.
Stuart Koehl| 9.7.11 @ 2:08PM
David only wins if Goliath lets him. David has to win every time; Goliath only has to win once.
Mike D.| 9.7.11 @ 8:07PM
Sorry, Goliath is in a no win situation.