The GOP presidential primary, which I continue to
compare to a colorful, shape-shifting kaleidoscope, is now in
overdrive, revolving at a blistering speed, with the latest Gallup
poll showing Texas governor Rick Perry rocketing past all other
Republican contenders.
According to Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones, 29 percent of
Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide say they
are most likely to support Perry, with Mitt Romney next at 17
percent. “Rick Perry has emerged as rank-and-file Republicans’
current favorite for their party’s 2012 presidential nomination,”
says Jones.
There is even more good news in this poll for Perry.
Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) and congresswoman Michele Bachmann
(R-MN), respectively in third and fourth place in the poll, capture
23 percent of the vote. Throw in Herman Cain’s 4 percent, and you
have over a quarter of the GOP primary electorate who, being
unlikely to shift to the more moderate Romney, are ripe for the
picking by the Perry campaign if it builds momentum.
The Gallup poll was conducted August 17-21 with a random
sample of 1,040 Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. Gallup
says that the poll has a 95 percent confidence that the maximum
margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percent.
Perry and Romney were essentially tied in late July. Now
the race is turned upside down. As expected, conservative
Republicans support Perry, “but liberal and moderate Republicans
support the two about equally,” says Jones.
In my last article, I speculated that Sarah Palin’s entry
into the race might, along with the presence on the ballot of
Bachmann and Paul, dilute some of Perry’s support vis-à-vis Romney.
When Gallup factored in both Palin and former New York mayor Rudy
Giuliani, each received about 10 percent of the vote. Still, Perry
maintained “a significant lead over Romney, 25 percent to 14
percent, on this measure.” There’s nothing like a little hard
polling data to kill the fun of free floating political
speculation. The numbers, while only a snapshot in time, do not lie
— at least when Gallup does the polling.
Writing in the National Journal, respected
left-of-center political analyst Ronald Brownstein noted that Sarah
Palin’s appeal was generally limited to voters without college
degrees. He parses the Gallup data, making all the usual
disclaimers about how early it still is in the race, but concludes:
“Perry’s ability in this survey to outpoll both Bachmann among the
devout and Romney among the well-educated shows the Texas
governor’s opportunity to build a broader coalition than either of
his principal rivals.” Perry has the “ability to reach across class
lines,” unlike Palin, claims Brownstein.
“Perry’s official entry has shaken up the Republican race,
making him the new leader for the party’s nomination,” says
Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones. “Gallup also finds Perry generating
strong positive intensity among Republicans familiar with
him, suggesting he has a strong initial base with potential
to grow, given his below-average recognition.”
Perry will have to show up and play the game, but his
polling numbers are nothing if not astonishing given his short time
as a presidential candidate. Moreover, he seems to be bridging the
social and economic streams in the Republican base. He recently
signed on to the strong pro-life
pledge offered by the Susan B. Anthony List, a
leading right-to-life organization, to all presidential candidates.
Romney did not.
If Perry wins the primary, will he go the distance against
President Obama in the general election?
Al Sikes, former chairman of the Federal Communications
Commission, successful businessman and former political compatriot
of mine from our Missouri days, believes that Perry, a very strong
personality and commanding figure, may benefit from the same
phenomenon that Rudy Giuliani did when even liberal New Yorkers
voted for him to bring some kind of order to a city financially and
socially out of control. Sikes, who lived in New York for many
years as president of Hearst Interactive Media, says
simply, “New Yorkers were fed up.”
“I do think in perilous times people look for a strong
leader and particularly after a weak one,” says Sikes.
It is fair to say that many, if not most, Americans, are
fed up with Washington. Perry is betting that they will emulate
Davy
Crockett who, after his Jacksonian opponents
derailed his re-election bid for Congress, exclaimed, “You can go
to hell — I’m going to Texas.”
