The American Spectator : Still Undecided in Iowa

Text Size

Still Undecided in Iowa

By Robert Stacy McCain on 8.11.11 @ 6:09AM

Tonight's Ames debate is make-or-break time for some Republicans.

DES MOINES -- Charlie Cook of National Journal was talking to Gwen Ifill of PBS in the back yard, and Carl Cameron of Fox News was in the front yard, while reporters from the San Francisco Chronicle and the Philadelphia Inquirer milled around among the guests at the home of a local businessman here. They were all awaiting the arrival of the guest of honor at a fundraiser for the Polk County Republican Party. When Mitt Romney finally did arrive, TV camera crews, photographers and reporters rushed down to the street where they encircled him in a moving scrum as he made his way across the lawn to the front door.

The former Massachusetts governor hasn't visited Iowa very often this year, and his rare visit Wednesday was occasioned by the same event that brought so many big-name journalists to town: Thursday's televised debate, two days before Saturday's Republican straw poll at Iowa State University in Ames. But while the national media turned out in droves to cover the Des Moines visit of the GOP's national front-runner, these reporters and pundits from out of town aren't eligible to vote in the straw poll, and few Iowa Republicans are expected to cast their votes Saturday for Romney. Four years ago, Romney made a strong effort in Ames and won the straw poll, but the big headline from that event was Mike Huckabee's unexpectedly strong second-place showing, and Huckabee subsequently beat Romney in the 2008 Iowa caucuses. Romney's name will be on the ballot Saturday, but he hasn't organized heavily in Iowa this year -- he reportedly has only three staffers in the state -- and most observers don't expect him to finish better than sixth place in the straw poll.

The questions surrounding the Ames ballot are still awaiting answers, and tonight's debate (9 p.m. ET, Fox News Channel) could have a crucial influence on those answers, because many Iowans who will vote in Saturday's event say they are still undecided. "The debate is going to be an opportunity for people to make one last assessment before they show up on Saturday," said Donald Racheter, a former university political science professor who is now head of the Public Interest Institute at Iowa Wesleyan College.

Norm Pawlewski says he has narrowed his choices down to four candidates -- Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Atlanta businessman Herman Cain. And he says Thursday's debate will be a big factor in deciding which one gets his vote in Saturday's straw poll. "There are a lot of people who don't have their mind made up, like myself," says Pawlewski, a lobbyist for the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition. "It will depend on how free the debate is, so that the candidates can really express what they're thinking and their real core values. There's a real opportunity there for someone to sway me." Like many other conservative activists here, Pawlewski has already met all four of the candidates who are on his short list -- and he has also met most of the ones who didn't make the list, including Romney.

Regarding prospects for Texas Gov. Rick Perry's push to get write-in votes in the Ames straw poll, Pawlewski said, "That's hard -- you've got people like Bachmann and Pawlenty who've got a lot of boots on the ground. They're working their phones and they're working their personal contacts, and they're going to have people coming out. It's kind of hard just to jump in this late in the game and expect people just to write your name in.… I'd be surprised if he came in anywhere in the top five"

Nine candidates will be on the ballot in Ames: Romney, Pawlenty, Bachmann, Cain, Santorum, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Michigan Rep. Thad McCotter. However, due to the debate rules decided by Fox News -- requiring candidates to show at least one percent in national polls to qualify -- McCotter won't be on the stage Thursday. McCotter has complained about his omission from the TV debate, but some have seen Fox's debate rule as the only way to exclude Fred Karger, a gay man running a sort of stunt campaign for president.

Thursday's debate may be decided by what Racheter calls the "foot-in-your-mouth factor." He recalled Gerald Ford's 1976 debate blunder against Jimmy Carter when Ford claimed that Eastern Europe was not under "Soviet domination."

"If somebody makes a big faux pas, makes a big mistake… it makes people say, 'Oh, this guy's not smart enough to be president of the United States," said Racheter, a veteran observer of Iowa politics. "You know the mainstream media are going to magnify any mistake that anybody makes, because they hate Republicans. They don't want us to be successful. They want Obama to get re-elected. And you know, he makes mistakes all the time, and they never say 'boo' about any of his mistakes."

Obama's mistakes haven't gone altogether unnoticed, certainly not by Romney. Speaking to the crowd at Wednesday's event, Romney recited a list of the president's failures and said, "You've got a lot of people in this country who are hurting, who are suffering by virtue of the president's policies. You may ask, 'What did he do that was so bad?' My answer is, well, almost everything."

That line got a laugh from the Republicans gathered at the McKinley Avenue home of businessman Nick Van Patten, but while many of the guests wore the candidate's blue and white "Romney: Believe in America" stickers on their lapels, several others privately said they were still weighing their votes in Saturday's straw poll. And the national front-runner's name wasn't on their short lists.

About the Author

Robert Stacy McCain is co-author (with Lynn Vincent) of Donkey Cons: Sex, Crime, and Corruption in the Democratic Party (Nelson Current). He blogs at The Other McCain.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (54) | Leave a comment

POST American| 8.11.11 @ 7:23AM

------'ME SHALL ------BALK---MEN'

------------'MITT (Gr. for 'with') 'ROME KNEE'

this capstone wordplay really is endless.

----------------------MEANWHILE----------------------

-------------------AS Fukishima and NOW
England burns in proper agenda advancing fashion

AS our own ILLEGALS swollen underclass is poised
to be turned on the remnant of the middle class here,
ALLLL with generous funding from the deadly sinister
Rocker-feller/ROTchild sin-dick---IT
---------'benny violence' is ON THE MOVE---------

----Remember kiddies, we're the ITs ---so now, where are the MEN?

Alan Brooks| 8.11.11 @ 9:30AM

You are PARANOID beyond belief, PO.

Alan Brooks| 8.11.11 @ 9:36AM

PA.
PA, this is superparanoid wingnut psychobabble raving:
"ALLLL with generous funding from the deadly sinister
Rocker-feller/ROTchild sin-dick---IT"

You may have Alzheimers as well.

Alan Brooks| 8.11.11 @ 9:46AM

Rock 'n' Roll A Feller! The Jew sin dick hate! Yes! and Hyman Roth, too!
It is the End Times! Benny benzedrine Brokeydoke and the Queen of England selling dope to finance the riots perhaps? hmm, will have to ring up Alex Jones on that one. But we DO know the Beatles used dope and they are English PLUS, they were all born just a few years before 1946...

Now how is that for a postwar Communist conspiracy?

Clint| 8.11.11 @ 10:03AM

Uh Oh !

Post American Pushed Brooks' Button.

Alan Brooks| 8.11.11 @ 10:44AM

and the Quetzlcoatl! that sinister evil creature; tell us, PostAmerican... did the Quetzlcoatl influence the Mayan calender to end next year?

Tune in next year, Dec. 31st!
Same bat time; same bat channel.

junkyard infidel| 8.11.11 @ 12:13PM

that's funny brooks, i find post americans pickled brain nonsense more coherent and relevant than yours !

Cosmo| 8.12.11 @ 3:17AM

You've got a bunch of deranged people leaving comments on this site and they are crowding out
intelligent readers....Maybe that's what they're trying to do...

Bill| 8.11.11 @ 3:32PM

"benny" violence: is that Benny Hill or Jack Benny.

Or maybe Benny Siegel?

Timothy L. Pennell| 8.11.11 @ 8:02AM

Look. My Grandmother had a way with words. If she were here, now, she'd say:
"SH*T, or get off the pot."
Look. I could beat this guy. My Beer Can could beat this guy. What's he got? The Press? The Blacks and the Gays?
Every Economic Indicator is DOWN. The Markets are in a FREE FALL. And, His Majesty is off to Martha's Vineyard.
We have LOST whatever Prestige, that we used to have. We have GIVEN UP our Leadership, in Space. We are about to DECIMATE the Finest Armed Forces the world has ever know, at a time in History, when EVIL is on the March, so we can pay for FOOD STAMPS.
And you're NOT SURE if you wanna run?
Get the hell outta here!

Alan Brooks| 8.11.11 @ 9:39AM

But you will elect another Bushclone soon.
With all the good people in America you keep fobbing off GOP mediocrities?

Timothy L. Pennell| 8.11.11 @ 9:47AM

You're so boring, Alan. You're like Alan Colmes. Maybe it's the name?

Doctor Right| 8.11.11 @ 9:51AM

This, from the idiots who gave us Obama, the least experienced man in ANY room he walks into...

Alan Brooks| 8.11.11 @ 11:29AM

I didn't vote for Obama, but I will if you keep running insects.
At any rate, Obama might drop out of the race.

Clint| 8.11.11 @ 12:37PM

Dare We Ask ?

Gloria La Riva: Socialism & Liberation Party
Brian Moore: Socialist, Vermont Liberty Union Party
Róger Calero: Socialist Workers Party

Al Makkah| 8.11.11 @ 1:43PM

Is there any difference between Bush and Obama?

Bo| 8.11.11 @ 8:55PM

Yes. Quite a bit, actually. Things like abortion, nationalized health care, nominating Sotomayor and Kagin to the Supreme Court, etc, etc.

Bo| 8.11.11 @ 8:55PM

Yes. Quite a bit, actually. Things like abortion, nationalized health care, nominating Sotomayor and Kagin to the Supreme Court, etc, etc.

Erling| 8.11.11 @ 8:03AM

Yawn...I'm struggling to find scrounge a modicum of interest in this or any straw pole. But on the subject of Iowa, there's little reason to support a nomination process which places inordinate importance on the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. I'm a Delaware native, so I'm not inclined to pick on the little guy, but regional primaries, perhaps 5 would eliminate the inanity of spending months camping out in a small jurisdiction.

Alan Brooks| 8.11.11 @ 11:30AM

"straw pole"

Poll. A straw pole wouldn't be of much use.

Erling| 8.11.11 @ 12:37PM

Good grammatical catch- but a straw poll is equally useless; silly really.

Dave Williams| 8.11.11 @ 1:23PM

Either one is more useful that then ENTIRE sum of comments to date from the estimable Mr. Brooks.

Mimi| 8.11.11 @ 8:34AM

Iowa matters, so does New Hampshire ! It is the FACE to FACE encounters at the diners and the sidewalks. It is TRADITION and the plain folk get to have a look-see close-up!
When its over in both primaries the world will have a good idea...who their next President will be, and the way things in the country might go in the near future.
There is a remarkable consensus right now that in 2008 we chose wrongly. We pin our hopes on fixing that error. To live in these small states and to meet the candidates, shake their hand, and get an impression in a personal way is joy to watch, for it is truly AMERICA at its best!!!

Kelly Staples| 8.11.11 @ 8:50AM

Palin/Bolton 2012

Dai Alanye| 8.11.11 @ 5:14PM

Not bad.

simon templar| 8.11.11 @ 9:09AM

Tell you what! Screw Iowa! Maybe, we could give the rest of the nation an opportunity to decide besides Iowa, the MSM, and a handful of talking heads for once.

Doctor Right| 8.11.11 @ 9:27AM

PREDICTION:

Michelle Bachman will do VERY well tonight, as will Rick Santorum.

As usual, Newt Gingrich will make a lot of sense, but his campaign was over before it got started, so it won't really matter.

Cain will also do well, but the media is trying desperately to ignore him, so he won't get much traction.

After tonight's debate and the straw-poll, we can say good-bye to Huntsman, Gary Johnson (Who?? Exactly...) and possibly Pawlenty and Gingrich. They won't quit, but they'll start sending out "feelers" to the other candidates...

That leaves Bachman, Romney, Paul, Santorum, and Cain.

And we still have no idea what the two (2) 800lb gorillas-in-the-room, Rick Perry and Sarah Palin, are doing.

GOOD TIMES!!!

Bo| 8.11.11 @ 8:49PM

Bachman is a RINO

Ryan| 8.11.11 @ 9:39AM

The debate and straw poll are more elimination brackets than anything else, probably. It will be where a couple may shine in particular or make a big enough mistake to push them out of contention. The trick now is to simply not lose (but you don't play that game long term).

carnot| 8.11.11 @ 9:44AM

follow the money!

Clint| 8.11.11 @ 10:14AM

Agreed.

See Who's The Big Financing Behind The Obama & Romney Campaigns.

Clinton Lovell| 8.11.11 @ 10:08AM

I hope the sparks fly. My money is on Ms. Bachmann, but it will be interesting to see how things work out. The only certainty is that it is likely to be a real bad night for Obama.

Aces and Eights| 8.11.11 @ 11:13AM

One can only hope that for Romney it is not "make" but rather "break" (as in "Break, like the Wind!")

Ground Control| 8.11.11 @ 11:16AM

This is really "make or break" for the Republican Party. If they nominate some loser non-conservative like McCain and piss off the Tea Party, the Tea Party members will leave, and the Republican Party will find that the Party's over. Turn out the lights.

Alan Brooks| 8.11.11 @ 11:33AM

The Grand Old Poots haven't run a good candidate since 1984!

Ground Control| 8.11.11 @ 11:50AM

That was my point.

Ground Control| 8.11.11 @ 11:50AM

That was my point.

Shamus| 8.11.11 @ 1:46PM

The only candidate the Democrats have had in the last 50 years that wasn't horrible was Clinton. That's a pretty poor showing.

Alan Brooks| 8.11.11 @ 11:34AM

Last time I voted GOP was '86.
Bush 41? he had his chance and blew it.

Ground Control| 8.11.11 @ 11:54AM

Still, as bad as the GOP has been (and I quit the Party in the 1990's), comparing their Presidential candidates to the Democrat candidates since 1992, is (in the words of George Will) like comparing a second class fireman to a first class arsonist.

idalily| 8.11.11 @ 2:31PM

Ok, so if you didn't vote GOP in 2008 and you didn't vote for Obama, who DID you vote for, Alan? Just curious.

Dai Alanye| 8.11.11 @ 5:26PM

Those who don't vote--or who throw away their votes on sure losers--have no right to complain, and very little moral right to comment on this forum..

Yah Coyote| 8.11.11 @ 12:06PM

Why tradition picked Iowa (still is a fairly good representative of midwest voters) it is what it is. Press being the nitpickers and candidates hopefully with a chance to explain their prime ideas. It fits well with local impact on national outcomes. Probably would suit James Madison just fine.

Kingofthenet| 8.11.11 @ 2:53PM

Corporations are PEOPLE too, my Friends!

W| 8.11.11 @ 3:59PM

K, who form corporation, work for corporations, and own the shares of corporations? when you tax a corporation, that tax affects the price of the products and services, the wages to employees, and the dividends to the shareholders. a corporation is a pass through entity.

Look at your pension plan, it has shares of corporations.
Do you think a corporation is an entity from Mars?

rendite| 8.11.11 @ 2:58PM

Argh. Another article that tries desperately to make the former (long time ago) Massachusetts governor look interesting. Robert Stacy McCain seems to be in the tank for Romney. Why?

Cato| 8.11.11 @ 3:20PM

Because Robert Stacy McCain is a squish.....

GENE HAUBER| 8.11.11 @ 4:10PM

IF ROMNEY OR HUCKABEE STAY IN THE RACE, NO MATTER THEIR IMPACT, THE MSM WILL USE BARRELS OF INK TO TELL AMERICA HOW WORTHY THEY ARE TO BE OUR NOMINEE.............DANGER, DANGER...THERE BE DRAGONS THERE. THAT'S HOW WE GOT BOB DOLE AND MCCAIN........WE CAN'T BE SO STUPID TO DO THAT THREE TIMES.

Bo| 8.11.11 @ 8:52PM

Huckabee?

Oldefarte| 8.11.11 @ 4:29PM

FYI:
'....The Next American President Must Redeem Our Exceptionalism
by Pamela Geller
Posted 08/11/2011 ET

The focus for 2012 so far has been exclusively on which Republican candidate is most electable. This is hardly the issue. The next time Americans vote for President will be far more historically significant than as a mere presidential election. The next presidential election is not only an election of a person, it is also, and more importantly, a referendum on American independence and statehood.

The next American President must vow to return to the founding principle of the American idea: individual rights. The next American President must advocate and cheerlead for the most benevolent and productive human system in the world: capitalism.

Barack Obama’s socialism is wrecking the American economy and relinquishing American sovereignty. Obama’s disastrous policies cannot be reversed overnight. This presidential putsch is the crowning achievement of a 50-year campaign of sedition and infiltration of uber-Left, anti-American statism. In many ways it is even older than 50 years, going back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the New Deal. And imagine: Lyndon Baines Johnson, the Great Society socialist, wasn’t leftist enough, and was forced not to run for reelection despite designing the “Great Society” legislation that included Public Broadcasting, Medicare, Medicaid, environmental protection, aid to education, and his “War on Poverty.” The far Left has been working toward the Obama administration for years, and his election was its finest hour.

No, the tragic election of Barack Hussein Obama was no accident, and the consequences of it will be catastrophic and painful. But we as a people, a free people, hold our destiny in our hands. The next President must campaign, and govern, on austerity, and on American power and exceptionalism. He or she must campaign on the promise to dismantle Big Government, roll back this monster, and deregulate the chains on our economic engine. We must unshackle the small businessman and destroy the crippling system of serfdom by way of entitlements. These are harsh but unavoidable realities.

We must be free and we must vote for freedom first, for this was the very idea of America encompassed in individual rights. This was our founding principle. Small government in defense of individual rights, property rights and the national defense.

The next President must have integrity, political will and spine (something in very short supply in Washington, and so we will have to go out of the box). We must fight for accurate information and ignore a media with an activist, propagandist agenda. It has gotten down to that: the media vs. the people. So we must do our homework and we must advocate the candidacy of the American who has the intellectual muscle and testicular fortitude for the coming storm. We need straight answers and not rhetoric. What are his or her mission objectives? Where does the candidate stand on Iran? The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt? The Muslim Brotherhood groups in America? And the powerful malevolent influence of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation?

Where does he or she stand on our participation in the United Nations? The next President must promise to tie funds to the UN to results and reform. The next President must stop sending foreign aid to despots and their murdering regimes. The next President must export political freedom based on individual rights, and reward countries that work toward that goal.

We must demand and elect freedom-loving officials on all levels, who will work with the next President of the United States to return to our founding principles and essential value system.

We can battle over how we got here, but the fundamental point is that such an undertaking must be initiated: a renewal of the vows we made in 1776. For no matter what the causes were, the outcome is clear. We are here, in America and the world of 2011, a new and terrible place, a precipice with disastrous implications for the United States (and consequently, the world).

It’s a battle, I know. The brains of our young have been marinating in a toxic ooze. They have been indoctrinated by a leftist public school system, a morally corrupt and value-bankrupt culture, and a university system designed to destroy critical thinking and instead produce generations of lemmings, foot soldiers who bark and march on command.

Those of us who remember freedom and know what it is must therefore fight all the harder....'

shipley130| 8.11.11 @ 5:55PM

Looks like Romney got his peepee smacked a little, trying to convince people about the travels of corporation money. Pretty fun to watch.

David| 8.11.11 @ 7:28PM

I would like to see Perry in the debate........but I guess we will be seeing him in a debate soon enough.

WHat sucks is that Obama got elected president without any qualifications whatsoever, and now that he may have irrevocably damaged America, when out of office he will make multiple fortunes, and he will never his endless diatribes.

I want the repub nominee in a debate with him to say straight-faced, "it is time for you to go back to community organizing, go back the Southside of Chicago, and actually fix the place there. Then come back to the American and ask for their trust in putting the entire country in your hands. Just acoomplish something - anything - please - before asking to continue in this job".

POST American| 8.12.11 @ 10:48PM

-----------------BOTTOMLESS LINE-------------------

AS Ron Paul's victories in now 2/3 of the straw
polls is being buried ---consider the 'other'
CFR/RIIA vetted, authorized and 'on board'
'choices'

----ME---SHALL_____BALK----MEN----

----MITT____ROME-KNEE----

----'SERA'_____PALE--IN-----

and the unrepentent NAFTA super highway
pusher, infra structure foreign sellout con,
Garadsil injection advocate --and former campaign manager
--for AL GORE ---RRRRRick PAIR ---Heeeeee!

Remember, the capstone lives and dies by
wordplay.

IT really does. That's why they're always
giggling and you don't know why.

REALLY

POST American| 8.13.11 @ 11:12PM

-----------------CHECK THIS OUT!

NEW on Google vids

'VOTE For Rick Perry;(DO U Know His Record)

---IF you though David Rockefeller front ops
Clinton and Obama were bad, or that the third
generation Bush TREASON ('Trading with the Enemies' culprits with NAZI Germany --during
WW2! ---the later multiple RED China sellout
and TREASON OPS, NAFTA, GATT etc. etc.)
was the final straw --

------------------YOU'RE gonna LUV Karl Rove
set up ----TTT---Rick PAIR---Heee.

SO, check it out. Send it to everyone you know.

We're even guessing, at the rate it's going, with
the USURY demolished economy, the first RED China 'sovereignty zone' opening in Idaho --and
those MASSIVE tunnels in Pigeon Lake waiting to
'proactively' connect us with Asia for some unthinkable 'kinetic action' in the future ---2012
MAY BE our LAST election.

-------------------------REALLY--------------------------