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A Further Perspective
Swinging Redder
Swing state Florida grows ever redder — bad news for the two top Democrats on next year’s ballot.
TAMPA — President Obama’s Florida approval rating was well above water just after SEAL Team 6 canceled Osama’s ticket. Not now. A Quinnipiac poll released last week shows 44 percent of the 674 registered Florida voters surveyed approved of Obama’s performance in office, while 51 percent disapproved. In May the same poll showed 51 to 43 percent approval.
As for whom Floridians told Quinnipiac they would like to see as president after 1/20/13, Obama and Mitt Romney are tied at 44 percent. In May, 47 percent of respondents said Obama deserved to be re-elected. In the latest poll, only 42 percent say they want another four years of him. Florida’s 29 electoral votes — 10.7 percent of the votes necessary to take possession of the key to the Oval Office wash-room — are in play.
Looking at the fine print of the poll, we learn that Florida independent voters, the backbone of Obama’s two-point win in Florida in 2008, now disapprove of Obama by a margin of two to one. Not good news for Himself. This is change the conservative side in Florida can believe in.
Romney leads the Republican presidential field in Florida, according to this poll. But he’s the choice of only 23 percent. Texas Governor Rick Perry, yet to announce, is second at 13 percent. Michele Bachmann, the belle of the ball in Iowa, so far gets only six percent support in Florida. But whenever Republicans select their flag-bearer, that candidate will have the advantage of not being Obama, a man more and more Floridians are finally seeing as a failed president.
If there’s no overwhelming choice in the Republican presidential sweepstakes in Florida so far, there even less agreement in the race for the Republican senatorial nomination. The hands-down leader in this race to choose a candidate to face a weak incumbent liberal is “Undecided” with 53 percent. A distant second in the senate race at 15 percent is retired Army Colonel Mike McCalister, who has only recently gotten into the race, has collected little money, and has appeared mostly before Tea Party groups.
Former U.S. Senator George LeMieux, who served the last 16 months of Mel Martinez’s Senate term, came in third at 12 percent. Restaurateur Craig Miller was the choice of eight percent. Former majority leader of the Florida House, Adam Hasner, has attracted the support of national conservative figures looking for the second coming of Marco Rubio. But he only attracted six percent of voters in this poll.
Twelve-year incumbent Bill Nelson, a down-the-line supporter of the Obama agenda, also lost a little ground in the latest poll. Over the two polls, the percentage saying Nelson deserves to be re-elected has dropped from 48 to 45. The percentage saying he shouldn’t be re-elected rose from 30 to 38.
All the Republican candidates are running on unambiguously conservative platforms. Any of them would be the un-Nelson. Another candidate or two may hop in on the Republican side before lineup cards are final next year. But don’t expect any mushy, moderate, Charlie Crist Republicans. Conservatism is clearly the philosophy of choice this cycle among Florida Republicans.
So there will be a clear ideological choice next year for the Senate seat. Nelson has the advantage of being defined as a moderate by a left-stream state media that will be solidly in his corner. The challenge facing conservatives will be to tie Nelson publicly to his record — which includes whooping up and voting for: ObamaCare, cap and trade, the “stimulus” slush fund, and a host of other liberal measures Floridians say they don’t like. It’s the conservative’s race to lose, in a state where people tell pollsters by a margin of more than two to one that they are conservatives.
With more than a year to go before the real ballots are cast, these poll numbers are useless in predicting either the presidential or senate horse races. But they do show the largest swing state in the nation slowly swinging back, at least for now, to red.
About the Author
Larry Thornberry is a writer in Tampa.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (36) | Leave a comment
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emo| 8.9.11 @ 7:50AM
I am less sanguine about getting rid of Obama. At 45% Approval, Obama's has the highest floor on his approval rating of any President since JFK.
45 years of unrestrained third world immigration plus 50 years of NEA Marxist indoctrination has resulted in the USA having a vastly different electorate than just 10 years ago much less 1980.
Alan Brooks| 8.9.11 @ 10:57AM
Besides, whatever pro forma maneuvers the GOP does, you probably know the outcome is for the GOP to nominate another creamed chicken-eating memoir writer at their convention next summer.
There is a drearily comforting repetition every four years with the GOP. in fact, it is a ritual now: say "we will find another Reagan to save us", then you nominate someone who has very little to do with the Gipper.
TrueBlue| 8.10.11 @ 2:04PM
One of the downsides to citizen voting not being public record is that once you cast your ballot you have no real guarentee the establishment will actually count it for who you want. They could change, and unless you know who EVERYBODY else voted for, you would never know it.
Sure it prevents people from being attacked for their vote too, which I totally understand, but the cloak over the whole thing makes it so easily manipulated. Washington state is going to be interesting this upcoming year, since it is now 100% mail-in-ballot. Mail-ins are even easier to manipulate than electronic voting booths since having multiple addresses more easily allows people to vote multiple times, and there is no ID check to ensure someone is a citizen.
POST American| 8.9.11 @ 9:07AM
---'90's Show' Tavistock/Stanford Research
SAP OP --ALERT!--
Meanwhile, as news of that MASSIVE trans
Pacific tunnel project in Pigeon Lake B.C.,
to say nothing of that 'first of several' 50
sq miles of RED China sovereign territory
south of Boise is looking more than ominous ----we're
pitched 'Ancient tunnels spanning Europe to Turkey'
(---COG-nitive dissonance OP)
---and continued SILENCE on that
1.5 quadrillion in FAKE USURY derivatives.
As we sit spellbound sipping our lattes
in Tower #2 ----will no one take in the
reality of the RED China TREASON OP
and head for the EXITS? ---and onward
to our Constitution? ---our GENUINE
spiritual selves?
Alan Brooks| 8.9.11 @ 10:49AM
PostAmerican, you make Alex Jones seem like WFB.
Alan Brooks| 8.9.11 @ 10:52AM
...BTW, I have some old Haldol in the medicine cabinet;
give me your PO box address and will send it to you by Overnight Mail.
Dr. Kurtz| 8.9.11 @ 1:21PM
Alan, we've all been very concerned about the possibility you weren't taking all your meds. You remember the old regimen, don't' you? You don't want to lose your privileges again, do you?
Now quit posting inane, non-sequiter replies to the first comment in AmSpec's comment threads. You are not an elder statesman, but you are a babbling old fool. Now come back to the dayroom and finish your macrame project.
Mike| 8.9.11 @ 2:45PM
Now that was funny! Thanks, Dr. Kurtz!
Alan Brooks| 8.9.11 @ 3:00PM
"You don't want to lose your privileges again, do you?"
Privileges? AS is just another dime a dozen blog. The illustrations are what are unique, the rest you can get from NRO, and dozens of rightist websites.
Privileges? whoop de do.
Alan Brooks| 8.9.11 @ 3:01PM
you make a big She-Do about it all, when its merely bread and circuses.
Dr. Kurtz| 8.9.11 @ 5:00PM
Ah. Yes. I see.
Alan, we've discussed "She-Do" before. And we both acknowledged that clowns - even "great, large lady clowns with huge breastheses"- have to travel with the circus in summer...
(Nurse Jones, get me five cc's of demerol now)
...And we just have wait for her to come back in Fall. We don't want her to lose her job with tigers and the white ponies...
(No, the left arm)
... Are you sure you don't want to try some different colored yarn for your macrame project? There's a box in the dayroom..
Occam's Tool| 8.9.11 @ 9:52PM
Demerol is a pain medication, not used for sedation of agitated psychotics. Ever.
Occam's Tool| 8.9.11 @ 9:57PM
For Alan, 2 mg of Ativan should do nicely, with 50 mg of benadryl as a chaser. What are friends for!
da monk| 8.9.11 @ 7:10PM
Hey Kurtz: Stop fighting reality.
PCP Smoker| 8.9.11 @ 10:34AM
The poll showing Romney and Obama tied at 44% is concerning. Why would anyone think Obama is up to the job?
Al Adab| 8.9.11 @ 3:47PM
Maybe his approval rating is due to too many PCP (or meth) smokers. You can, as Lincoln knew, fool some of the people all of the time.
PCP Smoker| 8.9.11 @ 9:14PM
Could be, you seem to know, but they do take part in polls?
Elgordo| 8.9.11 @ 10:52AM
To COUNTER the UNFAIR DEMONIZATION of the TEA PARTY
The Dems are trying to demonize the Teaparty with generalized, nebulous attacks on them as terrorists
A Teaparty SpokesPerson(s) should clearly list the 4 or 5 itms the Teaparty wants in a discussion of the Debt Negotiations to upgrade our S&P Rating back to AAA
Then demand to know what's terrorist about these demands.
Also, the Teaparty should point out that it was the underlying policies of Obama not the contentiousness of the Debt Ceiling debate that got us to the brink of insolvency.
Elgordo| 8.9.11 @ 10:52AM
To COUNTER the UNFAIR DEMONIZATION of the TEA PARTY
The Dems are trying to demonize the Teaparty with generalized, nebulous attacks on them as terrorists
A Teaparty SpokesPerson(s) should clearly list the 4 or 5 itms the Teaparty wants in a discussion of the Debt Negotiations to upgrade our S&P Rating back to AAA
Then demand to know what's terrorist about these demands.
Also, the Teaparty should point out that it was the underlying policies of Obama not the contentiousness of the Debt Ceiling debate that got us to the brink of insolvency.
Peter McGrath| 8.9.11 @ 1:00PM
In the 2010 election cycle, Floridians voted in a Republican Governor, a 100% Republican Cabinet (1st time in 100 years), and 2/3 Republican majorities in the State Senate and State House. Our state government has drastically cut spending, reduced taxes, abolished tenure and introduced merit pay in government schools, and will next year abolish mandatory union dues ("paycheck protection"), as well as deregulate numerous licensed "occupations" (such as interior decorating).
Florida is on the right track. Nelson is finished, extinct like a dinosaur. He'd be wise to consider retirement rather than suffer a humiliating repudiation at the polls. What a waste of skin and bones, this Nelson - a parrot of the Big Government Left, squawking and sputtering the same tired, inane, pathetic talking points. He and his ilk have nearly ruined the country and - in Florida - he has a snowball's chance in hell of being elected dog-catcher, let alone Senator.
da monk| 8.9.11 @ 7:14PM
Pete McGrath: Check the poll results of the popularity of Governor Scott. It's scraping the bottom of the barrel of Florida voters.
RCV| 8.9.11 @ 1:41PM
Boy, is Thornberry looking through GOP-rose-colored glasses! The best the GOP can do in the latest Florida poll is a tie for Romney -- whom conservatives despise. Every other GOP candidate loses to Obama by 5 to 14 points (Bachmann). Every senatorial poll I've seen shows Nelson beating every potential GOP opponent. If this is Florida -- the state that put Bush in the White House -- turning red, the GOP is really in trouble.
Peter McGrath| 8.9.11 @ 2:26PM
You're whistling past the graveyard.
Occam's Tool| 8.9.11 @ 9:54PM
RCV, Minneapolis is the nearest Ruth's Chris to me. You are welcome to come out and buy me dinner after the 2012 elections---don't worry, I don''t drink. All I'll want is the Rib-eye with the garlic mashed potatoes, a coke, and chocolate mousse for dessert. Should be under $50 easy, and you can teach my kids some basics on the Constitution.
Occam's Tool| 8.9.11 @ 9:55PM
Yeah, I know it's "don't." Damn key stuck.
RCV| 8.10.11 @ 12:44AM
Occam, I don't drink either. And I will indeed come to Minneapolis to have the pleasure of you buying me dinner at Ruth Chris. I'd enjoy it. I take mine rare, with a baked potato, some Pelligrino, and that mousse sounds wonderful!
Nick| 8.10.11 @ 12:01AM
RCV,
"He who doth liveth by the polls, will surely die by the polls."
- Nick from Detroit
RCV| 8.10.11 @ 12:44AM
Hey Nick from Detroit!
Al Adab| 8.9.11 @ 3:50PM
Florida alone won't be enouhg. It ia all about electoral votes so Virginia, NC, Ohio and a couple others are needed too. Dems start with the big states save Texas so it is a great uphill battle.
Question, Should States that will never give an electoral vote to the GOP, like California and NY, have such a big say by way of their primaries and convention delegations in selecting the candidate?
Brian| 8.9.11 @ 7:09PM
Jeb Bush should run against Nelson and forget this running for Prez biz. He is the only one that can beat Nelson so its his duty to do so.
Nite| 8.9.11 @ 10:26PM
Frankly, I hope Florida does toss out most of the liberal Democrats. Obama and with their help, has driven this country into the ditch. Gas prices doubled, food costs up, the deficit nearly doubled in the past 3 years, out of control federal agencies, failed stimulous, and people out of work at over 9%. My family is worse off since Obama took office. How about yours?
POST American| 8.9.11 @ 11:53PM
------------------BOTTOMLESS LINE------------------
Just in
Eyewitnesses in the ongoing English riots
are consistently reporting massive police
stand downs, and rampant, as usual, no doubt
Freemason instigated, provocateuring.
ALL this just weeks after the now OBVIOUSLY
set up, 'agenda advancing' Freemasonic styled
horror in Norway.
Their strategy is called 'Humiliate and DESTROY
their hearts'.
In short, self inflicted, seeping, open wounds
on every level and all fronts.
Think Ground Zero, and Katrina, and Multi-culturalism,
and Collpased Mexico, Collapsed Borders, Collapsed Cultures, Collapsed Economies, Collapsed Nations --------------
all thought out long, long ago in our TAX FREE
'benny violent' think tanks.
Now,as you sip your bisphenol A leeching,
GM latte, look up -----we're one and all sitting
in Tower #2.
REALLY
TRULY
---------------------LETHALLY-----------------------
POST America| 8.9.11 @ 11:57PM
-----------------BOTTOMLESS P.S.----------------
BTW ----DO check out yesterday's ALAN WATT.
---ESP. starting at around 25 min.
REALLY ----------------GO!
YES, this is REAL----------------------------------------
MikeN| 8.10.11 @ 6:52PM
This is before Obama spends $1 billion on his reelection. Is there any evidence that the map has enlarged, or is the game plan for Republicans to flip Indiana, Nebraska's last electoral vote, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and one or two more states to get to 271 votes? Will Obama have to spend any money in California, Oregon, Maine, Washington, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Minnesota, or will these all be conceded, leaving him free to pick off one state for a win by spending 60 million in ads in each state?