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The Current Crisis

The Long War and the Budget

Get ready for a long war to balance the budget and to bring government spending back to 20 percent of GDP.

WASHINGTON — We are engaged in a long war — actually two long wars. The first and most commonly accepted of our wars is the long war against Islamofascists. It is not a war against vast armies. Comparatively speaking it is just a war against a handful of thugs, but they want to strike at our heart, wherever we are ill-prepared, and if they can they will cause incalculable destruction. This we discovered on September 11, 2001. We are on the hem of wiping al-Qaeda out, but there are other thugs waiting. We must be vigilant against them. It will be a long war.

The second long war is at home on budgetary matters. That both the left and the right are in a fury about an early battle in that war, the debt-ceiling battle, suggests just how long that war will be. We have little consensus on this war. Yet a war it is, and a very long war I fear it will be. It is a war to balance the budget, putting the economy on a sustainable course, and ensuring growth and jobs. It is a war to get the country back to a federal budget that accounts for 20 percent of GDP rather than the 25 percent of GDP that President Barack has snatched from us while we were not looking.

Today the left is grumbling that the Congress agreed to budget cuts of nearly $900 billion over the next ten years but with no new taxes or as they delicately put it, no new “revenue enhancements.” As Congressman Jerrold Nadler, a Democrat from New York, exclaimed, “It’s a surrender to Republican extortion.” He elaborated, “It’s one thing to say ‘we want this. We don’t want that as part of negotiations.’ It’s another to say ‘we will destroy the country and the economy if you don’t do what we want.’” My response is just get government spending back to where it was before the Obama revels. Tax increases kill job growth, are unfair to those whom the left targets to pay them, and give us a false sense that we can continue on this perilous path to ever-larger government.

The federal budget has accounted for roughly 20 percent of GDP in recent years. When President Obama came to power he increased that to just shy of 25 percent of GDP, a peacetime record. In other words, he increased government’s size in our economy to 25 percent of GDP and he wants to keep it there at that historic level forever, or until he can grow it larger. It will mean slower economic growth, but he rather likes that too. The answer to Obama and the grumbling left is “give us the 5 percent of the economy that you took form us.” I think that is reasonable. That is what we want.

Unfortunately, the Tea Party is unhappy. It is the most successful political development in decades. It removed “revenue enhancements” from the recent Washington agenda, at least temporarily. As recently as July 28 President Obama was insisting that tax increases had to be part of the debt-ceiling deal. He lost. The Tea Partiers focused the agreement on spending cuts but many do not think they got enough cuts.

To be sure, they did not get enough cuts in the debt-ceiling battle, but they are in a strong position to get them in the battles ahead. They must not be distracted. They must not pack it in and go home. A Tea Partier by the name of Ellen Gilmore told the Wall Street Journal, “People are saying, ‘These tea partiers, aren’t they wonderful, they are changing the conversation.’ Well, we got absolutely squat — except for the conversation.” Actually, the Tea Party is leading us toward a tipping point, as Sean Hannity and Jeffrey Lord pointed out on Tuesday. And the tipping is to the right and it can stay there for years to come if the Tea Party and conservatives play their cards right.

We now are heading for the small battles to ensure that the debt-ceiling agreement is carried out properly. Then there is the great battle of the 2012 elections and the retirement of Barack Obama. Finally there will be other battles after 2012. The Tea Party is essential to winning these battles. It must not give up. It must stay the course. We are in a long war, but with the Tea Party’s assistance it is winnable. The fight has just begun.

About the Author

R. Emmett Tyrrell, Jr. is the founder and editor in chief of The American Spectator. He is the author of The Death of Liberalism, published by Thomas Nelson Inc. His previous books include the New York Times bestseller Boy Clinton: the Political Biography; The Impeachment of William Jefferson Clinton; The Liberal Crack-Up; The Conservative Crack-Up; Public Nuisances; The Future that Doesn’t Work: Social Democracy’s Failure in Britain; Madame Hillary: The Dark Road to the White House; The Clinton Crack-Up; and After the Hangover: The Conservatives’ Road to Recovery.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (33) |

Timothy L. Pennell| 8.4.11 @ 7:48AM

What we NEED, is someone who can Articulate. Paul Ryan has a Plan, for medicare. Paul Ryan's Plan for Medicare, is seen by some, as something the LEFT can use against us.
"How can that be? Ryan's Plan SAVES Medicare."
You're right. Now, GO TELL EVERYONE!
WE know it saves medicare, but, the LEFT is out there, doing what they've been doing for 50Years. Lying through their teeth, to SCARE our Elderly. We need to be out there, every day, telling Seniors THE TRUTH. That, unless something is done, NOW, there won't be a Medicare. EXPLAIN to them that Medicare is LESS SOLVENT than Social Security. Tell them how many TRILLION$ in the Red, Medicare is.
We've gotta stop with the Karl Rove Kabuki Dance. For 8 YEARS, the Bush White House was SILENT, as the LIARS on the LEFT, viciously attacked their Administration, because KARL ROVE deemed, DEFENDING ITSELF against relentless LIES, UNWORTHY of a White House. And we all know how that turned out.
We have Plans. We have Ideas. But, we have to get them OUT THERE. Enough with all the Inside baseball. The people will UNDERSTAND. They understood Reagan. They will understand Paul Ryan.
I'm not holding my breath, though.

buckeyeman| 8.4.11 @ 9:33AM

Except that Paul Ryan's plan also included massive deficit spending into the indefinite future. What we HAD was a golden opportunity to slay the dragon (refuse absolutely to increase the debt limit) and "we" blew it. We will continue for a while now. We saw in 2007/2008 the nature of our future. Bubbles go on and grow for a while and then they burst. They don't decline gradually, they burst.

Prepare yourselves, our economy is doomed.

WeMustResist| 8.4.11 @ 7:54AM

The first war has already been a long war, many centuries long. Every generation it always seems like "it is just a war against a handful of thugs" but the thugs we see get lots of passive and active support from their hidden silent majority. Why don't we admit it is a clash of civilisations?
The Tea Party is in a race against time. Good luck to the brave and wise who love America.

Al Adab| 8.4.11 @ 12:47PM

Freedom has been the exception rather than the rule throughout human history. It is a battle never won but only continued. As long as there exist those who find their reward in power over others, Liberty is in danger.

Now we have given the United States over to those who either believe: (1) thay are annointed to rule or (2) seek power for its own sake. If the first they are mentally unstable and if the second they are in violation of their oath of office. in either event it represents a serious crisis for Freedom and a "clear and present danger" to the U. S.

martin j smith| 8.4.11 @ 7:55AM

The problem is we need new leadership. McConnell and Boehner do not cut it for me. Very uninspiring and bad for moral. There lies the problem--not the Tea Party.

Bill S| 8.4.11 @ 8:38AM

The budget battle isn't winnable. It's bad enough that the official deficit is $1.6 trillion. Once you include the $5.3 trillion in unfunded liabilities it's lost. Congress would have to cut spending by 75%-80% to truly have a balanced budget. Everyone knows that will never happen. The government is headed to default. It will avoid that by hyperinflating the dollar. That will lead to millions of people being unable to buy food and other basic necessities. It will be the greatest disaster in the history of mankind.

Michael Hawke | 8.4.11 @ 8:50AM

The long war may be lost before it has begun because the GOP surrender created a Super Congress beyond the reach of normal politics. But, the Tea Party will battle on - against the Washington (GOP & Dem) establiahments.

Prester John| 8.4.11 @ 9:21AM

We need a GOP version of William Proxmire and his "Golden Fleece" award, except instead of highlighting one stupid expenditure at a time we need to showcase $1 billion of stupidity at a time.

Make the Dems defend all the ridiculous studies and redundant programs one by one, and make them do it every week.

If we can't get rid of those how can we ever deal with Social Security, Medicare and all the rest?

ncatty| 8.4.11 @ 9:35AM

An excellent idea. Such examples are easy for the people to understand. Reagan used to use anecdotes to make his larger points, didn't he?

John McG| 8.4.11 @ 9:48AM

Now *there's* a good idea!

Al Adab| 8.4.11 @ 1:49PM

Heritage Foundation or maybe YAF could sponser such. Cato possibly.

POST American| 8.4.11 @ 9:55AM

----EVEN AS the American taxpayer continues to lavishy fund all kinds of development and infrastructure in RED China and elsewhere.

"There is absolutely NO reason why
ANY nation should be borrowing money
--EVER! --least of all the USA."
-ALAN WATT

USURY is, was, and cosmically always will
be, God mocking, creation hating, perversity engendering ABOMINATION.

You can NEVER pull something good and
genuine from the abnormal. NEVER.

The systemcertainly on record seems to
be about nothing more than actuarial ideals
of expediency (a--bore--shun, YOU-genocide).

It truly is sodomy by the numbers. It truly
makes every day an UN-birth-day.

Again, the unfolding reality , and certainly the
record, are UNDENIABLE.

Call us when you've come to grips with this
unalterable FACT of life------------------------

--------------AND SEE YOU IN NUREMBERG!

Who Knows?| 8.4.11 @ 10:51AM

Republicans don’t know how to negotiate.

Besides, voters are mathematically illiterate, at least the vast wrong wing of them.

So, all the dollar numbers, especially those distilled into “simple” percentages, for most people just don’t register.

I think the fact that the feds have been spending 20% of GDP for some years, now, and that BHO has it up to 25%, and wants to keep it there, is about as clear a way of understanding the problem as we’re going to have, in number terms.

And, want to bet that a sizeable percentage of Americans go, “Ho hum. What’s a tiny five percent matter?”

Paradoxically, too many people “know” too much, in particular our betters, to wit, all the pundits who spoon-feed us our “news”.

So, if someone said, “What if the GOP had been able to reduce the fed’s share of GDP to 15%, and wanted to keep it there?”, this query doesn’t even pass the laugh test!

We all “know” that PERMANENT entitlements make such a thing impossible.

Don’t forget the “underground economy”, either, as the real workers and creators of the wealth that’s being shared attend to cutting the federal government “costs”, aka taxes.

Hubris rules us all.

One final thought for today---

Obama and his team have been playing the role of Lucy, always pulling the football back when Peanuts tries to kick it, after promising and promising the moon.

Let’s mix metaphors, here---all the Peanuts in America are waking up, and realizing it is THEY who really already have the football, meaning THEY are in control of their own lives.

And, when it comes to the Lucy = Obama types, who ever try to take it from them, well: it’s time to take their football and go home!

Just say no morphs into don’t play their game!

Pecos Pete| 8.4.11 @ 11:27AM

WK: Excellent point about the underground economy. It is alive and well. The more taxes, the larger the underground economy.

Two easy illustrations: (1) Cigarettes. (2) Gasoline.

Al Adab| 8.4.11 @ 12:23PM

I see that borrowing has today reached 100% of GDP. Oh yeah and the DOW is off about 350 as well making about a 1500 decline in two weeks. Good debt deal huh?

Let me think, can I borrow 100% of my family household income every year just to enjoy the good life? Can I pay my Visa with my Mastercard? Not hard to see where that would leave my family.

Nick| 8.4.11 @ 11:44AM

Do not forget about Boehner the liar:


John Boehner is a liar and broke his word
. He promised in the
2010 Pledge to America (remember that GOP?) to give
Americans THREE DAYS to read legislation
before a vote.

"Americans should have three days to read all bills before
Congress votes on them."
- John Boehner, Oct. 30, 2010

He's only been Speaker of the House for seven months, and he is
already breaking his word. How is this any different than when
SanFran Nan Pelosi did the same thing?

It's not like Boehner is incapable of keeping his word. That is, for
democrats
. Remember H.R. 1, earlier this year? He let democrats
offer hundreds of amendments to keep "the Pledge’s commitment to an
'open process that makes it easier – not harder' to cut spending
[...]."

I guess we conservatives can just go pound sand, huh?

By the way, this grand deal has cut $4.5 billion from
national security spending for Fiscal Year 2012. These are
real cuts, $4.5 billion less spending
than FY 2011, not the phony C.B.O cuts from baseline
budgeting
, which only reduce the growth of spending.

Thanks to this cry-baby Oompa-Loompa, we no longer have a veto
over that incompetent boob in the White House. Thank
you, sir, may I have another!

"'The American people are in charge of this country, and they deserve a Congress that acts like it,' said Boehner. 'Americans should have three days to read all bills before Congress votes on them--something they didn't get when the "stimulus" was rushed into law. We should put an end to so-called 'comprehensive' bills that make it easy to hide wasteful spending projects and job-killing policies. Bills should be written by legislators in committee in plain public view--not written in the Speaker's office, behind closed doors.'" (All emphasis minne.)
- Penny Starr, CNSNews.com, quoting John Boehner

"'Americans have lost trust with their government, which has too often ignored the will of the people in favor of party loyalty and a desire to pass partisan bills at any cost,' said the introduction to that part of the Pledge to America. 'Backroom deals, phantom amendments, and bills that go unread before being forced through Congress have become business as usual. Never before has the need for a new approach to governing been more apparent than under Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her leadership [ARRRRRRRGH!]. Americans are demanding change in the way Congress works, and we are fighting to bring much-needed sunlight to the process and give the American people a greater voice in their Congress.'" (All emphasis mine.)
- Penny Starr, CNSNews.com, quoting the GOP's Pledge to America

$*@!#%*#! HYPOCRITE!!!!!!!!!

billg| 8.4.11 @ 8:56PM

Bravo Nick

Nick| 8.4.11 @ 11:06PM

Billg,

Thank you, very much.

Petronius| 8.4.11 @ 11:51AM

Bob
Both wars are lost: The first because this country doesn't have the guts to nuke those filthy bastards in Baluchistan, Wasiristan, and whateverotherstan they breed in. The second was lost during the Johnson adminstration when we had Medicare stuffed into our wallets along with S.S. then Medicaid, SSI, and the rest of the alphabet soup that turned the federal government into the slacker support group it is today. And when those of us who are solvent have nothing left, the real war will be fought between the producers and the parasites.

james wilson| 8.4.11 @ 11:56AM

It is a mistake to think we can peel back bad habits one by one because that is how they were applied. Solutions are made in the short war, because we already have the experience of what works. The long war was lost, and would be lost again.

If men have at last become incapable of seeing what they once saw, it is because they have gone for so long a time not looking at it--Owen Barfield

In the lack of judgement great harm rises, but one vote can set a house right--Aechylus

Al Adab| 8.4.11 @ 12:01PM

Many towns and other local governments operate in the black year after year. They do it by basing the current budget on last years' net not on projected revenue increases. They do it by not having built in automatic increases in department budgets. They examine their staff needs and adjust accordingly.

That said, will anyone on the Federal level stand up and admit that hundreds of agencies are redundant or un-nessesary? Will anyone admit that the economy is not growing at 8% while mandated budget increases are that percentage? How can anyone spend 40 cents on the dollar by borrowing it? Homes who pay their Visa with their Mastercard don't manage for long.

Cut spending
Cut taxes
Let wages find their own level
Encourage business expansion

All quite simple really.

Anthony| 8.4.11 @ 12:34PM

RET, I'm afraid that the war to save America from the leftist parasites seeking to suck the very life out of America is not going to be a long war.
We are almost at the tail end of this insane Marxist redistributionist mentality.
Today, our federal debt has reached the same level of our entire GDP, almost $14 T. Congress just agreed to bail the Titanic out with teaspoons.
With all due respect RET, this war is not just beginning, it's almost over; and if we sane Americans cannot take control of our government from the leftists and the establishment RINOS in 2012, Obozo and Co. will bury America like Kruchev only wished he had.

Anthony| 8.4.11 @ 4:21PM

P.S. HAPPY 500th OBOZO!!! Blow all those 500 candles out for the death of American exceptionalism. You ain't the one we've been waiting for, but sure as hell, you're the one we'll rid ourselves of in 2012.
Anybody want to buy an apple, and I'm not talking about a Mac either!!!

Bill Shambrook| 8.4.11 @ 1:49PM

The debt ceiling bill is just window dressing and does not address the core and fundamental problem which is the bloated federal bureaucracy. If the debt problem was being addressed correctly it would result in the downsizing or elimination of departments and many employees. I would anticipate that enough redundancy, waste, duplication or worthless services, would be identified that their elimination would quickly bring the budget into balance. It would certainly cause an uptick in the unemployment number but I would expect that the unemployed in the private sector would not shed a tear.

HOW TO SLASH THE DEBT IN A WAY THAT CAN BE EASILY EXPLAINED TO TAX PAYERS AND CAN MINIMIZE THE ABILITY OF THE DEMOCRATS TO FIGHT THE ACTIONS.

As part of the process in identifying federal programs and departments that should be cut or eliminated, the Republicans should use the same criteria that insurance companies must meet in Obamacare. Specifically the maximum that is allowed for admin expenses is 20% of the premiums collected and benefits paid out. Given that the government does not have to meet a bottom-line profit to stay in business, let alone grow, I would suggest that the admin expenses for government programs be limited to 15% of the benefits(if they even exist) provided. Each department should be required to build a "Zero-based budget” plan to justify both its existence and spending programs based upon measurable objectives and returns. I expect this would cut or eliminate many departments, and duplicate and useless programs. I also expect that there would be much waste found in the administration of the “entitlement programs”. By removing this it could make a major contribution to dealing with Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security running out of money.

martin j smith| 8.4.11 @ 2:12PM

I have been following the economic news with markets sharply down. Apparently Obama and Geithner have no tools to fix it. Watch out folks--this may be their fix. The debt Ceiling "deal" may well have been a facade for a real breakdown--time will tell. The thing is, our"leaders" must step forward and not sit idly by.
One comment I have heard from Marco Rubio hits to the matter but must be expanded upon: That comment asserts that the American people in essence must chose between Free Market Capitalism and Freedom or Government controlled, social ,justice Socialism. That is why it has been and will be impossible to "negotiate" with Obama and his cronies. This disparity--this stark either or "choice" must be talked about more. Voters must be helped to understand this explains a great deal about several things: Who the Democrat aka Socialists really are and it also explains clearly why it was nearly if not totally impossible to negotiate a "compromise" on the Debt Ceiling and in fact even the raising it itself.
So ladies and gentlemen fellow citizens its time to bring the 'cat out of the bag aka tell the truth about what is happening. Then indeed people the voters will be informed and have an opportunity to choose and be informed about their choice.

Al Adab| 8.4.11 @ 4:44PM

We (I use the term advisedly) voted for Hope and Change.

Dow closed off 512 almost 1500 in two weeks. Lost all this years gains...SO...

Hope is gone
Change ($) is all we have left

Theo Prinse| 8.4.11 @ 3:03PM

Indeed mr Emmett Tyrrell ! An ace remark. These are indeed the two wars !
1. Turkey will seize for Ottoman atavism and needed be removed from Nato. Greece must be supported to protect Constantinopel & the whole of Cyprus. The west must acknowledge secular Kurdish right of self determination in Turkey & Syria. Norway must be removed from Nato too if they don't break with Fatah.
2. Because intnernationally oil has to be payed in US dollars, the dollar is much stronger than financial specialist thus far admit & this is what the worlds banking elite is floating & speculatin on.
There are 4 financial battle grounds in which the US & the EU (Germany) make up 80 % of the worlds economic power.
1. 14 trillion US Debt (7 trillion nett)
2. 5 trillion speculative devivate capital in defaulting US banks
3. 3 trillion debt in EU defaulting PIIGS countries
4. 5 trillion speculative devivate capital in defaulting EU banks.
US Congess & Senate have passed ... nothing but a timeout untill november were as the Euro & the EU parliament can go bust in september.
So the Ben Bernanke, Geithner, Volkert, Summers, Reich's are waiting just for that to happen and after that .. weak US banks can & will default.
Look it at as an enormous international write off.
The US (China & Japan) as well as the (North) European states - having 20 trillion debt in total - both have to liquidate about 3 to 4 trillion each minimum immediately and invest 1 trillion in nuclear power (thorium) to lower the energy prize drammatically & a vast Electric Automobile Industry to stimulate the economy specifically instead quantitatively.
Until nov. 2012, an impeachment or another Breivik .. nothing will happen.
1. China whoever must be forced to appreciate the Yuan/remnimbi.
2. The US has to recall outsourced industry from China back to rhe USA
3. The US must remigrate 12 million illegals back to place of origin.
http://roygermano.wordpress.co.....come-from/
4. US domestic oil & gas drilling (Frank Gaffney, Robert Zubrin) also helps strengthening US dollar based geo-political stability if Iran (after its nuclear arms installations are destroyed) cooperates to sell its oil in US dollars again

TheRightIsAnythingBut| 8.4.11 @ 6:36PM

Americans for Prosperity, the conservative advocacy group backed by billionaires Charles and David Koch, has been accused of attempting to suppress Democratic voter turnout in the Wisconsin Senate recall elections.

Patch.com reported that Charles Shultz, a Democrat who lives in the 10th Senate District, received an absentee ballot application form last week from AFP that contained incorrect information on it. The form instructed him to mail it back to the wrong location by Aug. 11 -- two days after the recall election in his district between Sen. Sheila Harsdorf (R) and Shelly Moore (D) is set to take place, on Aug. 9.

Politico obtained a copy of the AFP mailer, which was also distributed to voters in the 2nd District.

The Wisconsin Democratic Party filed a formal complaint Tuesday with the state's Government Accountability Board over the issue, accusing AFP of "falsely representing the time frame" for the upcoming August 9 recall election. Shultz filed his own complaint with the GAB on Saturday.

AFP may also be getting involved in the increasingly heated ad wars that have been leading up to the recall elections. According to One Wisconsin Now, AFP has reportedly purchased over $150,000 in television ad time in the Green Bay, Madison and Milwaukee areas.

Al Adab| 8.4.11 @ 6:51PM

Same post as on the other thread. Interesting to me how many people use this moniker. There is even one in my town who uses it. Is it possible that these are simply Leftist talking points and this person is a plant?

W| 8.4.11 @ 7:30PM

Don't believe anything posted by this Wisconsin SEIU guy who goes by name of David and Right....
He posted a quote by Justice Scalia that he edited to make it appear Scalia said the Constitution is dead. When confronted, he says he won't answer.

POST American| 8.5.11 @ 12:40AM

---------------------BOTTOM LINE---------------------

Psycho-pathic, God mocking, creation hating,
Sodom enabling, a---BORE---shun feuled
USURY remains ---THE---- ISSUE.

ABSOLUTELY

UNDENIABLY

ETERNALLY

Erling| 8.5.11 @ 8:44PM

"The Tea Partiers focused the agreement on spending cuts but many do not think they got enough cuts."

Cuts? What cuts, Bob? The deal didn't cut one penny in spending. Until conservatives agree that the whole bunch must be fired, we'll never reduce Government spending and power.

POST American| 8.9.11 @ 1:05AM

-----------------BOTTOMLESS LINE-------------------

----The Glow--BALL--IST RED China TREASON
OP

----The almost century of ILLEGAL, Constitution
violating, USURY drive, foreign owned, PRIVATE 'Federal' Reserve

----The 1.5 QUADRILLION in FAKE, USURY
driven dervivatives debt

----The, cover up of the perhaps HAARP instigated, on cue Fukishima world DE-POP OP

----The TAX FREE subsidy status of the
ULTRA RICH, culture subverting, 'benny
violent' foundations and their thousands of
front (--like this magazine?)

"-----THIS IS TREASON."
-ALEX JONES

-----------------------TAKE HEED AMERICA

And, as we incrementally REAL-eyes
USURY = Glow-BALL-ism =TREASON = EUGENICS
--------grab your bags n'

--------------SEE YOU IN NUREMBERG!----------

More Articles by R. Emmett Tyrrell, Jr.

More Articles From The Current Crisis

http://spectator.org/archives/2011/08/04/the-long-war-and-the-budget

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