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Political Hay
Is the Orange State Still Red?
Whither Florida as 2012 approaches, with a GOP governor enjoying 29 percent approval ratings?
TAMPA — In presidential politics, Florida is very big medicine. Florida’s 27 electoral votes in 2008, ten percent of what was required to be elected president, went to the community organizer from Chicago by a couple of points, making him only the third Democrat in the last 11 presidential cycles to carry Florida.
Democrats nowadays tend to win in Florida only after Republicans have badly lost voter confidence — Jimmy-Bob in ‘76 after Watergate, Obama in ‘08 after the great economic infarct — or after Republicans pick a superannuated war-horse with no direction whose only argument for the nomination is that it’s his turn — Billy Bob in ‘96 over Bob “Bob” Dole. This was part of the story in ‘08 as well when Republicans chose a great patriot and honored warrior but a political non-starter in Captain John McCain.
After the 2010 census Florida is even more buffed politically, bringing 29 electoral votes to the table in 2012. And whoever the Republicans send out against the lefty now in the White House, that candidate will be nominated and showcased in a Republican convention in Tampa. So, was Florida’s ‘08 romance with a radical rock star an anomaly, or is red state Florida turning a bit purple around the edges? With 17 months left before the election — dozens of political lifetimes — it’s too early to say. But the smart money leans toward anomaly.
“Florida is center-right,” RNC co-chair Sharon Day of Ft. Lauderdale told me this week. “We’re still a red state. If the Republican Party has its ground-game together we can see that Obama is a one-term president. And that’s our most important role. The stakes are as high as they can be. We’re talking about saving the country.”
Of course, electing Republicans is not always a reliable proxy for advancing conservatism. But of late in Florida it has been. In state cabinet elections in 2010, Florida Republicans went three for three, and each of the victors ran on an unambiguously conservative platform. As did popular rookie U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, who not only ran well to the right of his primary opponent, liberal former Republican Florida Governor Charlie Crist, but ran Crist out of the Republican Party and into the private sector. (Crist is now a TV drummer for a large personal injury law firm — he may be reached at 1-800-AMBULANCE.) Florida now has a conservative former corporate CEO for a governor.
Day, who in addition to her high RNC post is Florida’s Republican State Committeewoman and Broward County’s Republican State Committeewoman, calls herself a “red-meat conservative.” There’s ample support for her optimism about the conservative cause in the Sunshine State.
For several years Floridians have self-identified themselves to pollsters as conservative over liberal by two to one. The 2010 off-year elections were a turkey-shoot for conservative candidates. In office, Rubio has worked the very conservative initiatives he ran on and earned a plus-12 favorable over unfavorable rating in the latest poll. Obama’s policies and programs — Obama Care, cap and trade, incontinent spending — do not poll well here.
These are things one might expect in a state where both houses of the state legislature are 2-1 Republican, the cabinet is all Republican, and the state’s U.S. congressional delegation is top-heavy with R’s. They probably account for the fact that the three candidates for the 2012 Republican U.S. Senate nomination — Florida Senate president Mike Haridopolos, former U.S. Senator George LeMieux, and former Florida House majority leader Adam Hasner — seem to be vying for the title of the true conservative in the pack. The winner will run against two-term Democrat Bill Nelson, an off-the-rack liberal.
But wait. There may not be a totally unobstructed path for conservatives in Florida. There are some counter currents. Likely just enough to consider Florida the largest swing state still in play. New York, also with 29 electoral votes, and California with its hog-choking 55 (is it really a good idea to give a state that has made such a dog’s breakfast of its own affairs such a big say in selecting a president?) are safely in the Democratic camp. Texas, with 38 electoral votes, is almost certainly the other thing. On to the currents:
First there’s the business of about 600K more registered Democrats in Florida than Republicans. This is a holdover from when Florida was a one-party, Southern state. And the one party was the Democrats. Many older registered Florida Democrats haven’t voted for a Democrat for president since Carter (and most who did this soon regretted it).
North Florida, paradoxically the most Southern part of the state, is solidly conservative, even though a Democrat scored an upset win in the recent Jacksonville mayor’s race. Central Florida is competitive, but almost certainly has a conservative majority in most times. But liberalism is alive and well in South Florida, especially in the populous Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. This part of the state is sometimes known as Baja-New Jersey.
About 20 percent of Florida’s voters are independents, and Florida can swing on the whims of these voters. In 2008 independents were enchanted with Obama. By 2010 they had moved strongly to the right. Too soon to tell where they will show up on the spectrum in 2012. It’s also too soon to tell if young people, excited enough by having one of their own running for president in 2008 to vote in larger than usual numbers, will return to their normal state of political inertness in 2012.
Another political ambiguity is the unpopularity of Florida’s conservative Republican governor Rick Scott. Scott won the governor’s office narrowly in 2010 on a platform of reducing state spending and has, with a cooperative state legislature, dealt with a $4 billion state deficit. He’s cut down on the number of state employees and obliged state employees to pay a small portion of their retirement costs. He also told the Obama administration to keep its $2.4 billion for high-speed rail as that project is simply a huge hole down which to pour taxpayer money.
For these accomplishments and moves, which parallel closely what Scott said he would do when he ran, a Quinnipiac poll last month pegged his approval rating at 29 percent, one of the lowest of any governor in the nation. Many of those whining are just the usual suspects — state bureaucrats, Democratic officials, enviros, teachers unions, et al. — but the widespread nature of the opposition to Scott’s austere policies brings into question exactly how conservative some people who label themselves conservative really are.
So there you have it. A mixed business. But more reason for conservative optimism than gloom. For the liberal cause in Florida in 2012, Sharon Day and her ideological soulmates hope and expect the final line score will be: no hits, no runs, no anomalies.
About the Author
Larry Thornberry is a writer in Tampa.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (44) | Leave a comment
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Brian| 6.9.11 @ 6:47AM
Press against Gov Scott has been vicious and of course the state Repub pols are a feckless bunch of Rino's. Scott has my vote but the other repubs in this state can go suck an egg.
Michael Tomlinson| 6.9.11 @ 8:02AM
Scott nearly lost a sure thing so his current poor polling isn't surprising. One could conjecture he rode Rubio's coattails to victory, but Obama fatigue probably explains why he was able to eke out a victory – the same Obama fatigue that will help Republicans in November 2012 when the unpopular Scott isn’t on the ballot. Scott should have marginal impact on the 2012 general election, but if Obama is polling well in Florida don’t be surprised to see Marco Rubio on the ticket.
As for Jacksonville voters who swallowed the blue dog rhetoric of a faux conservative they’ll rue the day they voted Democrat. Ask Virginians about Jim Webb.
In light of the Tea Party fiasco in NY 26 and a Marist Poll where 70% of self-identified Tea Party supporters sided with Obama and opposed cutting Medicare or Medicaid in order to “deal with the federal budget deficit” Mr. Thornberry’s rumination about how conservative some “conservatives” really are should be a signal to Republicans to craft a positive conservative message that is easily understood, explained and defended avoiding complexity, nuance and antagonistic language.
Dai Alanye | 6.9.11 @ 10:44AM
What he said.
The language with which policies are explained can be as important as the policies themselves when it comes to gaining passage.
Intelligent Design| 6.9.11 @ 8:03AM
In November 2010 Rick Scott defeated liberal Democrat Alex Sink, who told Florida voters that she thought Obama was doing a good job. (She must really like him now!) Ever since that election, the FL media has run daily attacks against Governor Scott, since they are outraged, livid, really in a total hissy fit, because their dear Alex lost.
Scott has proceeded to cut wasteful spending and make Florida more attractive for business, and jobs. (Scott reminds me of Governor Rick Perry of Texas, who will make an excellent President if he decides to run.)
In 2012, Scott will be reelected, Obama sycophant Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) will lose to the outstanding conservative Republican George LeMeiux, and Obama will lose the State of Florida plus the White House.
Intelligent Design| 6.9.11 @ 8:17AM
Probably no one would even notice that I made a mistake above. Governor Scott's term is four years, not two. That's good!
Michael Tomlinson| 6.9.11 @ 8:19AM
Good points. Once the reforms Scott has made begin to yield fruit thing will brighten for him.
The really good news is the Osama bin Laden bounce is tanking and soon Floridians will remember how bad Obama/Nelson and Democrats are.
grant1863| 6.9.11 @ 9:27AM
Good points, most people I know here in Tampa dislike Gov Scott because of the media but like his policies or the idea of his policies once they have been explained ie pension reform. Nobody likes taking medicine but they like the results. Time will tell how well the medicine worked.
The local media has beaten up Gov Scott as badly as Sarah Palin. It takes a lot of gentle discussions with fellow citizens to undo that damage.
Purpleguy| 6.9.11 @ 1:19PM
Rick Perry for President - the guy who promotes secession for Texas, are you serious? Scott's had his shot and the Florida populace have had enough of his shenanigans blaming fiscal armageddon to promote his ideological budget cutting. All you need to know is where he cut - and the people can see he's not on their side.
Mutch Moore | 6.9.11 @ 10:27PM
Hyperbolic, alarmist, chicken little the-sky-is-falling comments seem to litter the liberal Florida newspapers about Governor Scott. Phrases seen such as "coup d' e tat" and "usurpation of power" and "unAmerican" in reality are the ANTITHESIS of what Governor Scott is all about. He is literally rescuing the citizens of Florida from their own sinking ship. - like taking a very sick kid, kicking and screaming in protest, to the hospital. What part of the state is dead broke and destitute do those Governor Scott detractors not understand?
Scott is fabulously wealthy and does not need the money or the aggravation of the governorship. Nonetheless he has selflessly, and to his own peril and detriment, been a benevolent governor to suicidal Floridians who think they can somehow tax themselves back to prosperity. As a successful entrepreneur, not a career politician, Governor Scott will bring jobs back to the Sunshine State IF ANYONE CAN!
May the people of Florida support the Governor's courage and therein support their own survival. Gov. Scott is dealing with a fiscal mess but the sky is not falling under his governorship. This Governor's term will end in due course and he will go back to relaxing life he could be enjoying already if it weren't for his urgent sense of duty.
Florida can look back to the governor that put the sunshine back to save them from themselves. Then elect some liberal democrat to start the reckless spending cycle once again.
Jordan| 6.9.11 @ 8:05AM
Well it was considered an upset that Rick Scott won the election for Governor, even though Rubio and his GOP House cohorts stomped all over the Dems in those races.
Obviously the House went Republican and that happened in every swing state out there including Florida. Rubio was running against a VERY weak Democratic candidate and of course Crist, who most voters were not able to see as their Governor any more, but just as a politician who didn't want to leave a high elected office.
Stormzeye| 6.9.11 @ 8:08AM
What I see here in Florida is that the Republicans in the state legislature are trying to appear "moderate" i.e. not as conservative as the Gov. As a result they have opposed him on a number of initiatives and the their leadership has not taken them in tow. One problem with the article though:
How can the writer ignore African-American Representative Alan West! The most conservative man in the House who defeated a Liberal Democrat Jewish Obamanista in the most liberal congressional district outside of Waxman's Beverly Hills? I don't get the article's take except as a wake-up call to complacent conservatives.
Westie| 6.9.11 @ 3:01PM
Sounds like the FL State R Congressfolks are just like the R serpents here in SC that attacked Gov. Sanford incessantly and tried to take our new Gov. Haley....the worst type of good old boy RINOS and Rats infest State Houses all over the country. One day soon.....
Peter McGrath| 6.9.11 @ 4:48PM
Don't be too hard on Florida. In the last session alone, we eliminated tenure for government school teachers, introduced merit-pay and other government school reforms (no, we didn't shut them down, yet), required government employees to contribute to defined contribution (not benefit) pension plans, balanced the budget, drastically reduced corporate taxes, reformed Medicaid, introduced tort reform which caps non-economic damages for Medicaid patients at $200k, requires drug testing for persons receiving welfare assistance, among other big reforms.
Scott's approval rating is proportional to the (i) size of the changes, and (ii) a general lack of understanding concerning same.
The reporting in the press has been shameful.
It's actually hard to find a comprehensive explanation, from anyone, anywere, about the size and scope of the recent reform efforts.
The reforms make A LOT of sense, and good results can be expected from same over the next few years.
Texas Engineer| 6.9.11 @ 8:24AM
The big question that needs to be tied down is "How many of the Dade, Broward and Palm Beach county voters are voting absentee in New York and voting in person in Florida...or vice versa?"
Michael Tomlinson| 6.9.11 @ 8:59AM
Good question! Being Democrats and considering how easy it is for Democrats to vote after death at least a plurality are voting in both places.
Doctor Right| 6.9.11 @ 9:21AM
Don't believe any polls about Rick Scott.
The idea that he's gone from winning a plurality of votes to 29% in a mere 6 months is absurd.
After all. it's not like he seized control of key industries, supports massive environmental legislation that will cripple job creation and stifle growth, is forcing Floridians to purchase health care, and is an economically illiterate, clueless left-wing ideologue...
'Cuz if that were true, he'd be a shoe-in for re-election!
Purpleguy| 6.9.11 @ 1:23PM
No, but he's a heartless b* that has now been exposed . And, what's with the voter registration debacle in Florida. Instead of making it easier to register voters to participate in American Democracy, they have passed legislation and Scott signed it making it harder to register to vote. Why are they so unpatriotic, the Florida Republican Communistas? Floridians are wise to their tricks, and 2012 won't be pretty for the R's.
Peter McGrath| 6.9.11 @ 4:58PM
Oh, and here's another GREAT reform. Florida has widened the time gap between registration and voting, drastically limited the time frame for mail-in voting, and made it somewhat more difficult to register - thus hindering fraudulent, mob-style voting fraud engendered by fascist organizations like ACORN, and its ilk.
Leftist scum will have a much harder time running school buses through urban neighborhoods, offering "street money" (usually $20 bills) to bribe folks otherwise too lazy to vote on their own initiative, and bus them to the polls.
Persons too stupid or lazy to comply with the new voting and registration requirements will now - thankfully - do neither.
Mutch Moore | 6.10.11 @ 12:36AM
Outstanding Peter McGrath. Especially final paragraph. Voting is way too easy for the lazy and stupid. The effect it the watering down of votes cast by the informed voters. Its odd that folks don't get this concept.
Purpleguy| 6.10.11 @ 12:33PM
And, yet this country was founded on 1 person 1 vote. Informed doesn't mean right.
Purpleguy| 6.10.11 @ 12:32PM
Yeah, that's American of you. How patriotic to be glad that voters are disenfranchised. What kind of scum are you people that want to violate everything the Founders stood up against? Move to Texas so it can secede and take u with. We don't need unpatriotic fascistas like you in America.
Mutch Moore | 6.10.11 @ 11:08PM
Gosh Purplegay, your animosity would appear misdirected at those who merely want a fair, equitable electoral system and not one tainted with legally ineligible voters. We're on the same wave length in this quest, aren't we? Are you a champion of the truly "disenfranchised" or do you clamor for a blind eye toward voting corruption committed by those who would dilute our votes? If those of low or limited political perspicacity are not compelled on their own to vote, should they be rounded up like cattle to the polls? This is tantamount to interfering with a fair electoral process. Regardless, your free and loose use of the word "scum" is duly noted. Your misguided contempt may be futile anyway because America's problems are far beyond being remedied in any voting booth. Unqualified voters have already been instrumental in causing serious, perhaps irreversible damage to this Republic.
Chuck| 6.9.11 @ 9:41AM
Rick Perry needs to enter the race. He would sweep out all of these second raters including global warming Romney. Global warming has burst Romney's balloon and Chopper Christie has eliminated him from a veep pick. Hence Perry should pick Marco Rubio, winning both Texas and Florida in the general election puts him one giant step closer to the White House.
Michael Tomlinson| 6.9.11 @ 9:51AM
Perry-Rubio 2012 sounds good. I’m reserving tickets for that inaugural. Herman Cain has got to be the Secretary of the Treasury and John Bolton Secretary of State.
Purpleguy| 6.9.11 @ 1:24PM
Argh, I just threw up in my mouth.
Westie| 6.9.11 @ 3:03PM
Now you know the effects your post cause...purple pimp.
Purpleguy| 6.10.11 @ 12:33PM
how nice of you
Lois C| 6.9.11 @ 9:51AM
Gov. Scott is the best thing to happen to FL in many years. He is methodically cutting wasteful spending and reeling in the union scourge that has infected the state. If he could get a little more support from the alleged republican legislature the pace of recovery here would improve.
He continues to get very negative coverage from the Florida press and the teachers unions are screaming bloody murder about his policies. Both of these things make me sure that our governor is doing what is best for the state.
Intelligent Design| 6.9.11 @ 11:45AM
To: Lois C
Amen.
Al Adab| 6.9.11 @ 12:26PM
Conservative Governor
Republican legislature.
That about covers it.
Purpleguy| 6.9.11 @ 1:31PM
Oh, right, the unions caused the budget crisis. It wasn't those rich b* on Wall Street dealing away from the oversight of the government. And it was the unions, not the banks that lent the money to people who couldn't afford the housing they bought. Just blame the unions for everything all the time. But remember to give them credit for your lifestyle. Without unions you would have no paid vacation, paid sick leave, no paid health insurance, no 5 day work week, a guaranteed minimum wage, and a dozen other worker benefits and rights that ALL Workers enjoy - not just union members. Over the years union influence has dropped, and at the same time Corporate influence has grown - that is no accident. Don't you know that when the CEOs can take something away from the workers, they will? Profit is their motive, not their workers welfare. And, yet y'all still vote for the Corporate shills in Congress that do the Corporations' bidding. They have theirs , and could care less about you or yours. Wake up!
Purpleguy| 6.10.11 @ 12:34PM
Guess no one could counter this .. good, then what I say stands. Thank you for seeing the value of unions. I myself have never been in a union, but thinking, informed people know their value.
Cory| 6.10.11 @ 4:45PM
Lol, you're right. Unions who have complete bargaining power with our taxes are a good thing. Teachers unions gripe and moan because they are asked to finally contribute to their own benefits instead of some poor schmuck like me working hard for a living, paying for my own benefits and then using my tax dollars to subsidize theirs.
Yes, you're right. Greedy banks lent money to people who couldn't afford to repay the loans. The community reinvestment act almost completely altering our banking lending practices had NOTHING to do with it nor did the US AG or Sec of HUD claiming racism for those greedy banks you know..NOT giving money to those who couldn't afford it.
Mutch Moore | 6.12.11 @ 10:08PM
Wow! Nicely stated Ms. Lane. Amen, amen! And yes, the intensity of the screaming, scheming teacher's unions would be a measure of Scott's success and effectiveness. I agree Louis, he is thee best thing to happen to Florida since the citrus. The alleged Republican legislature may be sorry for not lending more ardent support to the Governator.
Al Adab| 6.9.11 @ 11:55AM
We will need the electoral votes come Nov. 2012.
JimH| 6.9.11 @ 12:42PM
The Augean stables are nothing compared to the Florida state house. Whatever Scott may turn out to be he comes in tainted with the general crookedness of the Florida GOP as well as the fines paid by his hospital company for I believe to have been dubious billings to the government. Here in Hillsborough country the county commission assisted by the local C of C built themselves a nice little pleasure dome called the Regent using TARP and other money by calling it a hurricane shelter. Most Floridians are personally conservative but they know the nature of the GOP here and do not trust it even if they vote for it. Part of Rubio’s success was to be able to cast himself as an outsider to the party machine.
Jack London| 6.9.11 @ 12:53PM
Rick Scott is about the closest thing to a crook of any elected officer. He presided over the biggest fraud fine in our history. How he got away Scott-free is simply amazing. Yet this is a man you admire - I guess if you're not a crook or crazy you're not in the GOP running these days.
If you want to know why he's so unpopular read this, which details how he's attacking ordinary Americans:
http://www.thewestsidegazette......emSource=L
As the last point says:
'GRS is just plain creepy.'
So crook, crazy and creepy.
Groad| 6.9.11 @ 1:30PM
It stinks to be you, after all you could have had Charlie Crist in the Senate.
Mutch Moore | 6.10.11 @ 12:57PM
Gubbnah Scott is literally rescuing the citizens of Florida from their own sinking ship. - like taking a very sick kid, kicking and screaming in protest, to the hospital. What part of the state is dead broke and destitute do those Governor Scott detractors not understand?
Nite| 6.9.11 @ 10:21PM
I agree with a previous poster. Rick Perry and Rubio would be winners for the WH. A second choice would be Perry and Floridas Col. Allan West. That would be another slam dunk. I prefer to reserve judgement on Gov. Scott, and see if he can bring in jobs. Florida has based its economy on tourism, and in this economic atmosphere, that is not a good basis. The housing flame out ruined Florida. The public sector unions is another thing Florida no longer can afford. Public safety should be excluded. The GOP may have an exciting candidate for 2012 before we are through and throw Obama and his radicals out of office. It would be an improvement.
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insanity | 6.13.11 @ 11:00AM
good to hear that
Christian Louboutin | 6.23.11 @ 6:07AM
Democrats nowadays tend to win in Florida only after Republicans have badly lost voter confidence