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Special Report
Squaring the Triangle: America, China, and Taiwan
The critical importance of U.S. arms sales to Taipei.
The U.S. and China recently held their third annual Strategic Dialogue. Limited economic and security agreements were reached. Perhaps more important, Chinese military officers joined the discussions and toured American military facilities afterwards. Relations between the two nations appear to be thawing.
However, bilateral controversies remain. Washington and Beijing disagree on much, including trade, North Korea, and maritime rights in China’s “Near Seas.” But nothing causes greater discord than the status of Taiwan, which is pressing the U.S. to sell submarines and advanced fighters.
After being detached from the mainland by Japan more than a century ago, the island of Formosa was under effective Chinese authority only during the short interregnum between the end of World War II and the Chinese Revolution. In 1949 the defeated Kuomintang Party moved the Republic of China government to Taiwan.
During the Cold War the two Chinas were bitterly at odds. As the People’s Republic of China has grown economically and moderated politically, Beijing surged past Taipei on the international stage. Even the U.S. recognizes only the PRC and formally acknowledges but one China.
However, Washington retains a quasi-embassy in Taipei, enjoys a profitable trading relationship with Taiwan, and has promised to sell the latter weapons for its defense. China’s patience with both the ROC’s separate existence and America’s arms sales has been declining. Last year Beijing ended military contacts with the U.S. in retaliation for the latter’s announcement of a $6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan.
Despite the recent uptick in U.S.-China relations, acceding to Taipei’s latest weapons request could spark Chinese retaliation. Nevertheless, Washington should help its democratic friend defend itself.
The U.S.-China relationship likely will be the world’s most important bilateral connection this century. The two nations are tightly linked economically. They share many other interests: stability in East Asia, freedom of the seas, open global economy, cooperative international institutions.
Perhaps the most important objective between the existing superpower and the potential superpower is to avoid war. When faced with two rising powers in the late 19th century, Great Britain accommodated the U.S. and confronted Germany. The result was two world wars involving the latter. Similar conflicts between the U.S. and China would be catastrophic.
In fact, there is little over which Beijing and Washington might fight. The PRC has demonstrated little interest in overseas military expansion or attacking the U.S. Economic competition between the two is growing in Asia, Africa, and even South America, but Washington’s best response would be to liberalize the American economy, not deploy the U.S. Navy.
A clash is possible in East Asia, however. Today the U.S. dominates the region, even along China’s border. But the PRC is building deterrent forces, particularly missiles and submarines capable of sinking U.S. carriers.
The Pentagon’s latest assessment of Chinese military spending speaks of “anti-access” and “area denial” capabilities. Notably, the PRC poses no threat to the American homeland. But Beijing doesn’t want the U.S. to be able to threaten its homeland. One can imagine the U.S. reaction if the Chinese navy was patrolling America’s coasts, prepared to intervene in, say, Washington’s struggle with Hawaiian secessionists.
Unfortunately for the U.S., it is far cheaper to build defensive than offensive weapons. America could bankrupt itself attempting to protect its carriers and buy additional platforms in order to maintain its ability to attack the Chinese mainland.
Nevertheless, Washington should not abandon Taiwan, as tempting as that option might be to some. Even if the U.S. does not formally recognize the ROC, the Taiwanese people have made a separate identity for themselves.
Whatever the technical, juridical issues surrounding the China-Taiwan relationship, Taiwan is entitled to decide on its own destiny. Certainly Beijing is not justified in attempting to coerce the Taiwanese people.
The best solution would be a negotiated settlement when China institutes political as well as economic reforms. The two states and peoples have been drawing steadily closer. However, the PRC will make itself politically attractive only when it accepts a free society as well as a freer economy.
About the Author
Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is the author and editor of several books, including The Politics of Plunder: Misgovernment in Washington (Transaction).
Letter to the Editor View all comments (13) | Leave a comment
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dee see| 6.1.11 @ 6:25AM
"Squaring the triangle'?
ENOUGH with the coy allusions to deadly
Social Darwinist capstone FREEMASONRY
---esp. when touching on one of their 'fave'
operations --the destruction of classical Chinese
culture via opium and MAO ---and the current
'EUGENICS friendly' model so beloved of David Rockefeller,
Ted Turner,Bill Gates and Rupert Murdoch.
BTW --note the lack of ANY quality coverage
of this Monday's Anniversary of the outbreak
of the perpetually 'EUGENICS friendly' KOREAN WAR.
Texas Engineer| 6.1.11 @ 9:01AM
Um dee see...perhaps you should read some OTHER history books. The NK's crossed the 38th Parallel to initiate hostilities on June 25th 1950.
maximumrandb| 6.1.11 @ 9:25AM
Dear Mr. Bandow:
To your point that the PRC is not patrolling American waters, but the U.S. is patrolling Western Pacific waters, it should be acknowledged that the U.S. has official bilateral defense agreements with South Korea, Japan and the Phillipines (and an informal agreement with Taiwan). China has no such agreements with any nations in the American littoral. Moreover, the U.S. has territory in the region, e.g. Guam. So our presence in the region has both a diplomatic and sovereignty basis.
Cordially,
Dan Hirsch| 6.1.11 @ 9:46AM
Doug,
You are talking to Obama and Mrs. Clinton, 'member. Tell them that they should NOT help the Taiwanese to defend themselves, then, maybe, just maybe, you'll get the results you desire.
Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama obviously never did very well on the playground during recess. By this I mean neither has any detectable understanding of alliances, friends, and BULLIES!
Sheesh - bloody idiots, they are.
Leroi| 6.1.11 @ 9:46PM
"Chinese military officers joined the discussions and toured American military facilities afterwards. "
And what did they discuss? US Military things?
And how did the US visits to Chinese military facilities go?
dee see| 6.1.11 @ 10:22PM
The KOREAN WAR was green lighted from
Beijing ---opened with the greatest artillery
and rocket attack in history and soon ABSOLUTELY taken over by the RED Chinese.
Fact is MORE Chinese died in Korea than North
Koreans.
The fact also is that, as American forces were
poised to virtually throw the RED Chinese and
NK forces out ---was betrayed by Dean Rusk
acting on behalf of the Dean Acheson/Averell
Harriman RED China set up cabal.
MILLIONS of KOREANS have died since
'peace' was established.
5000 AMERICANS and tens of thousands
of others remain 'missing' and unaccounted
for to this day.
AT this moment NK receives over 90% of
its electric power from RED China.
IF Korea were to be an open and united nation
after 35 years of largely Roosevelt (Teddy)
greenlighted Japanese colonization ---and 60
plus years of Globalist RED Chinese supported police
state and EUGENICS ----as every 'innie' knows
---RED China itself will be OVER.
GET REAL---------------------------------
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Zbigniew Mazurak | 6.2.11 @ 2:23AM
Utter gibberish from the ignorant, anti-American, isolationist Doug Bandow. Firstly, the US defense budget constitutes just 3.5% of GDP and the entire military budget amounts to merely 4.6% of GDP, so there is zero risk of the US military bankrupting the US.
Secondly, weapons capable of defeating access-denial weapons are much cheaper than traditional weapons such as carriers. One carrier costs $5-6 bn. One Virginia class submarine costs $1.8-2 bn, i.e. 3 times less. But then you also have to buy all the aircraft for that carrier as well, so its total cost could be $10 bn, which could pay for as many as five Virginia class submarines. They are the quietest submarines in the world.
Thirdly, China DOES pose a strategic threat to the US homeland - not just to Hawaii and Alaska, but also to the CONUS - with its hundreds of ballistic missiles, spies, cyber warfare units, and SSBNs, one of which launched a JL-2 SLBM near California's cost last year.
Fourthly, the claim that China has not been sending ships near the US coast or anywhere else other than its own coasts is a blatant lie. It has been sending its ships globally, not just to protect sealanes important to it, but also to America's coast (see above).
Fifth, the claim that its ambitions are limited is also a blatant lie. China claims a large number of islands plus the entire Western Pacific, which it claims is an internal Chinese sea. China is also itching for a war with the US. One Chinese colonel has said of Americans, "we must make them hurt". Another one promised the US "a hand-to-hand fight". Hu Jintao has promoted many hawkish generals to high offices. Two generals, Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, are members of the CPC's Politburo, although neither of them is a member of the PSC, the highest party organ.
Sixth, the claim that the US and Communist China have shared interests is a blatant lie. China is not interested in an open economy, it's interested in protecting its own industry and walling it off from foreign competitors. China is not interested in a stable East Asia; in fact, it's doing everything it can to destabilize it to make problems for the US.
The US should rebuild its military AND sell Taiwan any weapons it needs to defend itself, including F-22s and F-35s.
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