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The Nation's Pulse
Famine to Feast
Record snowpack levels will soon result in major flooding through the normally arid West.
America is certainly suffering the effects of flooding this spring and while we have no large-scale disaster such as that currently plaguing the Mississippi Valley, the West has its own flooding problems. As I look out my window at the Bitterroot Mountains I see a solid mantle of white, a scene more likely noted in March rather than May. After a cold, wet spring that inhibited the melting of that snow and even added to it, the Salmon River has finally risen with runoff.
The West has experienced a decade of “precipitation deficits,” if not outright drought, so this past winter saw an embarrassment of riches for skiers and other winter recreationists. Snowpacks in the Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and the Sierra Nevada in California are running 150-200% of average. Here where I live in Idaho, the Salmon Basin is 155% of normal, which is actually a low number. Farther south, the Portneuf River Basin above Pocatello sports an amazing 286%. These numbers promise at least minor flooding regionwide. But if the weather suddenly gets hot or rainy, it will be disastrous.
According to a recent story by AP, climatologists are pointing to this year’s strong “La Niña,” in which cooler water in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean causes wetter-than-normal winters in the Pacific Northwest, California, and Northern Rockies, and drier conditions in the Southwest. New Mexico, for instance, is suffering an early fire season with over 300,000 acres already scorched. The snowpack there along the Rio Grande is only 72% of average.
The numbers are extraordinary. Loveland Ski Area west of Denver broke its annual snowfall record of 572 inches (49 feet) set in the winter of 1995-‘96. Snowbird Ski Resort near Salt Lake City also broke its own record with a massive 711 inches (as of three weeks ago), which is 59 feet. AP tells us that the resort plans to remain open until July 4.
The latter indicates huge snowpacks averaging over 200% along Utah’s Wasatch Front, which spells flooding woes for metropolitan Salt Lake City. These snowpacks are even higher than those seen in 1983 when City Creek flooded parts of downtown. Interstate 80 was closed and the Great Salt Lake lapped at the runways of Salt Lake International Airport. This year sandbagging has been done earlier throughout the area.
The snowmelt in the Colorado River this year has caused the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (BuRec) to release 3.3 million acre-feet of water from Lake Powell to Lake Mead, thus raising it 23 feet. That flow itself is 14 times the amount of water used in Las Vegas last year. Metro Las Vegas was in a drought with impending water restrictions as recently as last fall. “I’m delighted, absolutely delighted,” Southern Nevada Water Authority general manager Patricia Mulroy told AP. BuRec is draining reservoirs throughout the West, as it seeks to move “storage” from one to the next to better handle the snowmelt. Palisades Reservoir sits at a mere 11% of capacity after water was sent downstream to other Snake River reservoirs in anticipation of the big snowmelt soon coming from the upper Snake drainage, notably Wyoming’s Teton Range and the southern reaches of Yellowstone National Park.
The major problem regionwide is that a cold April has passed without snowmelt. Usually about 25% of the snowpack melts before May 1, but not this year. This means that a substantial warmup, or what meteorologists euphemistically call a “rain event,” could trigger disastrous flooding, degrees of which are inevitable. In Montana, for instance, the last big flood year was 1997, when the Yellowstone River (the last great undammed Western river) inundated parts of Livingston and other towns downstream. That scenario is likely again this year. Already the Yaak River in northwest Montana, the Clark Fork downstream from Missoula, and the Bitterroot River flowing from the south through its eponymous valley toward Missoula are at flood stage.
In California the Sierra Nevada snowpack is so bountiful that Central Valley Project irrigators will have 35% more water available to them this year than last. The snowpacks average 159% down to 127% north to south along the mountain range. The higher peaks around Lake Tahoe accumulated over 60 feet this past winter. Again, a fast warmup could inundate valley towns as in flood years past.
The West doesn’t flood on the scale of the South. And considering that ongoing aridity is our normal state of nature, we’ll take the bad with the good. It’ll be a nice green summer.
About the Author
Bill Croke, formerly of Cody, Wyoming, is a writer in Salmon, Idaho.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (27) | Leave a comment
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Stormzeye| 5.23.11 @ 6:25AM
Does this mean that even the EnviroNazis won't be able to deprive Central Valley agricultural interests of water? I'm sure the Jug-Eared Marxist will find some way to continue to cripple these unfortunates in spite of this example of needed "climate change".
SpiralArchitect| 5.23.11 @ 1:11PM
The best story I have hear so far is how the warmer climate & air due to, you guessed it, Global Warming, has caused more water to evaporate into the clouds to create these massive and perpetual storms.
I am still laughing at that one.
This article is quite accurate, the culperate is 'La Niña' - google for what the wonders and perils of La Niña usually are.
Living only a few miles east of Lake Tahoe for the last decade and in the Tahoe basin for nearly 15 years prior this is a winter to remember.
Sierra snowfalls have not been like this since the early '70s and then the '50s. The only thing close was '82-83 which also brought tremendous floods in the (Ca.) Central Valley.
Occam's Tool| 5.23.11 @ 5:28PM
Spiral,
you DESERVE to live in a beautiful area.
Skippy| 5.23.11 @ 8:33PM
Christmas week 1996 saw a 25' blizzard in the Sierras melt all at once and nearly sweep the Central Valley away.
Since then no further Biblical deluges, but the season is young...
Kitty| 5.23.11 @ 6:46AM
Here in Upstate NY, farmers are still waiting for some of their fields to dry out enough to plant. I heard only 40% of crops have been planted. Pretty soon it will be too late to plant. Financially, farmers lives on the cusp as it is; this year does not bode well for them. Personally, I'm amazed there are any farms left in NYS.
Die Fledermaus| 5.24.11 @ 1:52AM
Folks east of Little Rock in rice country are also worried it's going to be even too wet for their crop.
Appleby| 5.23.11 @ 7:03AM
These things have a way of evening out -- and confirming the truth that our stupid attempts to do anything about the climate of Planet Earth are as ineffective as fleas arguing territory on a dog.
I recall when I lived in Georgia the howling and shrieking after two years of drought, that the End was Near and Georgia would turn into the Gobi Desert, followed by a year like this when water lapped at the doorsteps. We religious folks drew little cartoons of God saying, *HAPPY NOW?*
PS Farmers have always been gamblers. If you want a job where every day is guaranteed to be like the last one, you better sell the farm and go to work at MacDonalds.
Michael L. Hauschild| 5.23.11 @ 8:52AM
This phenomenon in pre-Army Corps of Engineers history was referred to as the “June Raise.” Most geologic time scales are built on the epoch; psudo-scientists such as Gore, “Corps,” and academic navel gazers base their disbursement of your tax dollars on the rational of a “hundred year flood.” i. e. “Very few people live past a hundred so let us use that time scale to establish parameters of geologic flux.”
Remember “global warming,” it was based on weather (not climate) records from about 1888, it was “hockey sticked” to doom by fabricated algorisms, faulty instrumentation, and invalid experimentation from pre-conceived conclusions . This rational is best exemplified by a PhD. who owns a set of dice and rolls them four times. His point count is two, four, seven and nine; he thus “scientifically” concludes that rolling dice always results in increasing point value totals.
God in his divine wisdom created Gaia in order to punish researchers who do not follow stringent scientific methodology. They are doomed to the self-flagellation of drawn “high water marks” ,”record” low temperatures, “drought/flood” prediction analysis, and other meaningless drivel. They have the most indefensible of arguments; all you have to do to prove them wrong is to wait a bit.
SpiralArchitect| 5.23.11 @ 1:13PM
The ride is usually quite enjoyable for us winter enthusiasts. :)
Groad| 5.23.11 @ 3:52PM
"June Rise " means something different to Democrats like the Kennedy's , SPitzer, Slick Willy and Kennedy acolytes like Ahnold.
Occam's Tool| 5.23.11 @ 6:59PM
I always love the guys who say "the science is settled"---especially when they had a "C" average in college and no scientific background, like our former veep and current Nobelist and masseuse molester.
Quartermaster| 5.23.11 @ 8:07PM
The term "100 year flood," is a misnomer. The actual idea is the flood for which there is a 1% probability. Therefore,a "100 year flood" can happen at any time, the probability of it happening is 1%. Just because the probability is small, does mean it won't happen.
The idea of a "100 year flood" happening only once in 100 years is false.
Michael Tomlinson| 5.23.11 @ 11:04AM
Natural disasters are devastating the heartland of the US and aside from one quick stop on his way to Florida Obama is nowhere to be seen.
He declares war from Brazil, wants to give billions to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt while refusing to declare burning Texas a natural disaster area and runs off to Europe as Joplin is destroyed and Louisiana is being devastated by floods he runs off to Europe without a word of sympathy for suffering Americans.
It is clear Obama and Democrats don't give a damn about Americans, but definitely want 15 people rationing health care, bailing out unions at the cost of billions to taxpayers and shoveling American taxpayer’s money to Muslim fundamentalists and the Brazilian oil industry.
Kevin Compton| 5.23.11 @ 11:37AM
The Southwest isn't all that dry this year. At least not in the central Arizona mountains. we've had near record snow fall in Prescott and it's been very slow to turn into spring-like weather. I did a little independent research and discovered this is "normal". Until about the mid-1980's most years were like this one we're having in Prescott, Arizona.
SpiralArchitect| 5.23.11 @ 1:21PM
As presented by Michael previously, weather cycles ( definite reason they are called cycles) are not to be measured by a couple years or a small stretch of decades.
When the author correclty identifies the massive weather out pour this years at 100% - 2005 of normal...
Consider what that really means and what creats "normal".
The highest and the lowest are averaged to create a middle place -> the average. A lot of records are set this year but most not by much.
Look up annual snowfall in the Sierra or Donner Summit, over 500" is a typical year.
Dustoff| 5.23.11 @ 1:36PM
MOTHERNATURE, doing what she does.
LOL...
Occam's Tool| 5.23.11 @ 5:34PM
You know, I LOVE living in Western Northern MN---we have blizzards---that's it. The Mississippi is a creek where I live (I live within a short drive of the origin of the river), no earthquakes, too far North for tornadoes (mostly). No wildfires, obviously no hurricanes---yup, things are sweet.
Alabamians are wonderful people, and they get hit. Pray for them, and the other tornado victims.
Nunya| 5.23.11 @ 7:06PM
Occam, you also have incredibly cold winters. I'm originally from the midwest (IA) and remember when schools were closed because actual temperatures were in the -35 to -45 range with -88 and lower wind chill factors. We were always about 10 degrees warmer than MPS/StP, and I'd guess you were probably 10 degrees colder still. I'd guess that most AmSpec readers would rather take a pass on that one. :-)
HSmith| 5.23.11 @ 6:40PM
We here in southern Nevada are overjoyed at the prospect of getting more water into Lake Mead. We've been told more times than I can count that we were doomed to have Mead dry up. In fact one of our local MSM outlets ran one of those "we're all gonna die!" series last year. Of course now they're not acknowledging their former position, but instead, everything is sunshine and lollypops. As an aside, the latest forecast is for Lake Mead to get enough water to raise it's level by 30' . In this case, more is better. The local water authority has said that should postpone any shortages for years.
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Dee See| 5.23.11 @ 10:50PM
---Of course, as usual, not a peep about the
REALITY of world CHEM-trailing and
'weaponized weather ops'
(their words not ours).
MEANWHILE, while we get top billing for
a routine volcanic eruption in volcanic Iceland
----the greatest world nuclear disaster in history
is nowhere to be found.
Can we say 'population reduction'---------------?
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Marc Jeric| 5.24.11 @ 2:55PM
There is a sun cycle, between 11-12 years long, here in the American West, since at least 60 million years. The cycle corresponds to sunspot activities and goes approximately like this: 3-4 years of drought; then 3-4 years of normal precipitation; and finally 3-4 years of heavy snow and rains. This year, after 4 years of drought, we have the first year of heavy rains and snows.
After so many millions of years of this natural phenomenon one would think that the bureaucrats would have learned - but no. Now it is all a consequence of the global warming hoax. Back in the 1970's under Moonbeam Brown's first governorship we entered the 3rd year of drought; so the s...head established a "Drought Control Administration" with 1500 new bureaucrats in newly rented offices in LA downtown skyscraper.
The creeps occupied 3 floors and issued a number of ordinances - mainly fines for weekend car washing, for excessive watering of too-large lawns, devices to put in the flushing tanks to decrease flushes, and FINES, FINES!!!
The following year the floods came and heavy rains day after day. I visited the Drought Control Administration offices to see what happened; the big bronze plaque with "Drought Control Administration" was covered by a carton spelling in manual letters "Flood Control Administration"!
How about this incredible inventiveness of our bureaucrats? All those salaries, raises, sick leaves, health care benefits, pensions...all to "control" sun spot activities!
steve| 5.24.11 @ 5:14PM
Actually, your numbers are a bit outdated for the Rio Grande. Late season storms and cool temps have brought us above average in the Rio Grande mountains. At least I see this according to SNOTEL.
Steve| 5.25.11 @ 12:46PM
I meant---mountains of the Rio Grande headwaters!