I faithfully listen to
audiobooks as a means of coping with
northern Virginia traffic. Recently, I have been engrossed by
Edmund Morris’s
Colonel Roosevelt (2010), which,
like the first volume of his biographical trilogy, could very well
earn him another Pulitzer Prize.
At one point in the book, Theodore Roosevelt describes the
workings of politics as a kaleidoscope that is constantly changing
form and circumstances never repeating themselves again. At least
that is what I recall. I do not have a text to consult, a small
price to pay for listening rather than reading a book.
That vivid metaphor came to mind while reading about the
latest twists and turns of the fascinating Republican presidential
primary.
Haley, The Donald, and Huck are out. Dr. Ron is in. Tim
Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, and Mitt Romney are in the launch
position. Rick Santorum campaigns hard. Mitch Daniels and Sarah
Palin do their best Hamlet imitation, and the crowd calls for more
Chris Christie and Paul Ryan despite their Shermanesque
disclaimers.
Then, there is Newt. Ohmagawd. Whatever was he thinking?
There was his pandering after the corn ethanol vote in Iowa, his
I-love-my-country defense (I never thought of that one, exclaimed
Pat Buchanan) of his ignominious marital and extra-marital behavior
and, most spectacularly, his trashing of GOP House Budget Chairman
Paul Ryan (R-WI) and, by implication, the entire Republican caucus
that voted for the Ryan Medicare reform proposal as “radical”
social engineers. Incredible.
Give the guy credit, Newt Gingrich accomplished one heck
of a hat trick by way of political self-immolation. He better start
up another think tank and promote one of his 100-point programs
that nobody understands except for those avid readers of Alvin
Toffler. I mean, it takes a lot of talent to (censored) off,
simultaneously, the Wall Street Journal editorial board,
Charles Krauthammer, Rush Limbaugh, Bill Bennett, and almost every
right-of-center pundit and voter maintaining a pulse. His
performance merits several twists of the kaleidoscope for
sure.
Regarding the broadside directed at Chairman Ryan, no one
would have cared if Gingrich had merely declined to endorse his
plan while applauding his leadership, bravery, yadda, yadda, yadda.
That, essentially, is what Pawlenty and Romney did. No, he had to
craft some really searing talking points for the present and future
benefit of the Democrats that will be played back endlessly between
now and November 2012. Another twist of the kaleidoscope, please!
Oh, oh. It just turned completely black.
But let’s look at the bright side. The GOP primary is
beginning to congeal, that is, get real. Mike Huckabee’s departure
will solidify Tim Pawlenty’s standing with social conservatives
unless there is a mass (no pun intended) conversion to Catholicism
among the GOP electorate and a miraculous movement toward Rick
Santorum. Haley Barbour’s bowing out frees up more big money for
Mitt Romney and puts many established party leaders in play for all
the contenders.
Pawlenty is baggage-free, not the case for Romney. The
former governor of Massachusetts is a) father of Romneycare, the
model for Obamacare which, by the way, Newt Gingrich both opposes
and supports, and b) open to the charge of flip-flopping on
abortion. In addition, Pawlenty is an anti-tax budget-balancer who
thrived politically in Minnesota, a state generally described as
“liberal.” However, Mitt Romney is probably the one candidate,
along with Santorum, who does talk about defense and foreign
policy.
Mitch Daniels certainly has a following among the GOP
establishment and has done outstanding work making conservative
Indiana more consistently and intelligently conservative in terms
of budget and overall governance. However, he has caused
consternation among social conservatives given his gaffe on the
Reagan-era Mexico City policy against funding abortions overseas
and his rather strange idea about a “truce” on social issues
notwithstanding the near certainty that it would amount to
unilateral disarmament by conservatives with little impact on
social liberals. He will also have to explain his role in or
resistance to blowing out the budget during the Bush administration
while he ran the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the White
House. More twists of the kaleidoscope.
As to Congresswoman Bachmann and Governor Sarah Palin, is
there really any chance that they can win their party’s nomination
much less the general election? The answer is to the first question
is “maybe.” The answer to the second is “unlikely.”
Since my day job is not political punditry, I am going to
let it all ride and offer my assessment, not an endorsement mind
you, that, absent Jeb Bush or Chris Christie throwing their
respective hats in the ring, the race comes down to Governor
Pawlenty versus Governor Romney. Twist, twist. If Governor Daniels
actually enters the race, he will be a strong contender but in
third place. Twist.
