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A Further Perspective
The Kaleidoscopic GOP Primary
Still, the field is shaping up at last.
I faithfully listen to audiobooks as a means of coping with northern Virginia traffic. Recently, I have been engrossed by Edmund Morris’s Colonel Roosevelt (2010), which, like the first volume of his biographical trilogy, could very well earn him another Pulitzer Prize.
At one point in the book, Theodore Roosevelt describes the workings of politics as a kaleidoscope that is constantly changing form and circumstances never repeating themselves again. At least that is what I recall. I do not have a text to consult, a small price to pay for listening rather than reading a book.
That vivid metaphor came to mind while reading about the latest twists and turns of the fascinating Republican presidential primary.
Haley, The Donald, and Huck are out. Dr. Ron is in. Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, and Mitt Romney are in the launch position. Rick Santorum campaigns hard. Mitch Daniels and Sarah Palin do their best Hamlet imitation, and the crowd calls for more Chris Christie and Paul Ryan despite their Shermanesque disclaimers.
Then, there is Newt. Ohmagawd. Whatever was he thinking? There was his pandering after the corn ethanol vote in Iowa, his I-love-my-country defense (I never thought of that one, exclaimed Pat Buchanan) of his ignominious marital and extra-marital behavior and, most spectacularly, his trashing of GOP House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) and, by implication, the entire Republican caucus that voted for the Ryan Medicare reform proposal as “radical” social engineers. Incredible.
Give the guy credit, Newt Gingrich accomplished one heck of a hat trick by way of political self-immolation. He better start up another think tank and promote one of his 100-point programs that nobody understands except for those avid readers of Alvin Toffler. I mean, it takes a lot of talent to (censored) off, simultaneously, the Wall Street Journal editorial board, Charles Krauthammer, Rush Limbaugh, Bill Bennett, and almost every right-of-center pundit and voter maintaining a pulse. His performance merits several twists of the kaleidoscope for sure.
Regarding the broadside directed at Chairman Ryan, no one would have cared if Gingrich had merely declined to endorse his plan while applauding his leadership, bravery, yadda, yadda, yadda. That, essentially, is what Pawlenty and Romney did. No, he had to craft some really searing talking points for the present and future benefit of the Democrats that will be played back endlessly between now and November 2012. Another twist of the kaleidoscope, please! Oh, oh. It just turned completely black.
But let’s look at the bright side. The GOP primary is beginning to congeal, that is, get real. Mike Huckabee’s departure will solidify Tim Pawlenty’s standing with social conservatives unless there is a mass (no pun intended) conversion to Catholicism among the GOP electorate and a miraculous movement toward Rick Santorum. Haley Barbour’s bowing out frees up more big money for Mitt Romney and puts many established party leaders in play for all the contenders.
Pawlenty is baggage-free, not the case for Romney. The former governor of Massachusetts is a) father of Romneycare, the model for Obamacare which, by the way, Newt Gingrich both opposes and supports, and b) open to the charge of flip-flopping on abortion. In addition, Pawlenty is an anti-tax budget-balancer who thrived politically in Minnesota, a state generally described as “liberal.” However, Mitt Romney is probably the one candidate, along with Santorum, who does talk about defense and foreign policy.
Mitch Daniels certainly has a following among the GOP establishment and has done outstanding work making conservative Indiana more consistently and intelligently conservative in terms of budget and overall governance. However, he has caused consternation among social conservatives given his gaffe on the Reagan-era Mexico City policy against funding abortions overseas and his rather strange idea about a “truce” on social issues notwithstanding the near certainty that it would amount to unilateral disarmament by conservatives with little impact on social liberals. He will also have to explain his role in or resistance to blowing out the budget during the Bush administration while he ran the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the White House. More twists of the kaleidoscope.
As to Congresswoman Bachmann and Governor Sarah Palin, is there really any chance that they can win their party’s nomination much less the general election? The answer is to the first question is “maybe.” The answer to the second is “unlikely.”
Since my day job is not political punditry, I am going to let it all ride and offer my assessment, not an endorsement mind you, that, absent Jeb Bush or Chris Christie throwing their respective hats in the ring, the race comes down to Governor Pawlenty versus Governor Romney. Twist, twist. If Governor Daniels actually enters the race, he will be a strong contender but in third place. Twist.
About the Author
G. Tracy Mehan, III served at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the administrations of both Presidents Bush. He is a consultant in Arlington, Virginia, and an adjunct professor at George Mason University School of Law.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (47) | Leave a comment
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Carlton Lucifer Chance| 5.20.11 @ 6:16AM
Although Mitt Romney appears to be on a roll now, you didn't cover Herman Cain. He also is rolling.
Pawlenty looks weak, although he gave some good responses.
Mitch Daniels is cautious like Palin and Bachmann.
Palin or Bachmann could really shake this race up.
Whoever is left standing will be the stronger for it.
Vern Crisler | 5.20.11 @ 6:48AM
I think the writer has a thing for Pawlenty (who is he?). It amazes me that conservative writers can so easily dismiss Sarah Palin, the most Reaganesque politicians we've had in years.
Spectator| 5.21.11 @ 1:01AM
New President won't be inaugurated til 2013.
Try to focus on the now--over-throwing Boehner,
battling Obama on every single front....impeaching this montebank...The fight is now, Republicans, not in Nov.2012.
Occam's Tool| 5.21.11 @ 4:09PM
Pawlenty: Conservative former Governor of Minnesota.
Did nothing while Franken stole 2008 senatorial election. Completely useless to the Republican candidate for Governor, Emmer, who was trying to replace hiom. allowing the most Liberal Governor in the Mid-West to be Minnesota's (Dayton).
Not inspiring. Also Fubared on Cap and Trade, although has apologized for it (unlike Mitt and Romneycare).
Occam's Tool| 5.20.11 @ 3:50PM
Pawlenty does not inspire. I know a LOT of Minnesota Republicans who are just mild about Tim.
righthook38 | 5.22.11 @ 5:41PM
Exactly. No charisma, pretty boring. Needs to lighten up a little.
Occam's Tool| 5.20.11 @ 3:50PM
Pawlenty does not inspire. I know a LOT of Minnesota Republicans who are just mild about Tim.
Occam's Tool| 5.20.11 @ 3:50PM
Pawlenty does not inspire. I know a LOT of Minnesota Republicans who are just mild about Tim.
Alan Brooks| 5.20.11 @ 11:19PM
Fact is, the GOP hasn't elected a good POTUS since 1984-- over 26 years.
The Bushes deep down cared only about their dynasty, not America.
Oldefarte| 5.21.11 @ 3:15PM
Get that Bush cockaburr out of you saddle, and move on. You're a broken record!!!!
Alan Brooks| 5.22.11 @ 6:49PM
But you will run another one of his sort next year or in '16!
the last 20 years:
Bush
Dole
Bush
Bush
McCain
You are 0-5
The Quadfather| 5.23.11 @ 1:34AM
Yeah, and the Dems haven't elected a good president since I can remember.
Dee See| 5.20.11 @ 6:35AM
NOT even a single fresh, essential, dynamic
--let alone compelling, figure on offer.
The levels of dumb-down and globalist
indoctrination, media subversion etc., now spanning over
half a century have truly
taken their well planned toll.
And then there's the utterly unexamined
matter of the levels of outright blackmail
and extortion at work in this age of surveillance
grid PC 'culture'.
Somehow it just never gets mentioned.
THINK ABOUT IT----------------
John| 5.20.11 @ 7:07AM
Since Trump dropped out there is not an American-first candidate in the bunch; they are all for multi-national corporations outsourcing our industry to foreign powers, including enemy states for slave labor. None so far have advocated demanding OPEC to lower oil prices -- or else, until we drill for more here. Yes, they are all for stopping the reckless spending and lower taxes but that alone will not turn this sinking ship around -- as long as the GOP embraces suicidal economic globalism we will be at the mercy of foreign powers.
Another issue the GOP candidates have not discussed is to crack down on the too-big-to- fail multi-national corporations, especially the reckless finance companies that are more like gambling casinos. We need to re-enact the Glass-Segal wall that separate these pseudo-banks from the traditional corner bank and institute stricter banking laws, otherwise another crash will definitely occur.
Unless the candidates tackle these issues and put forth a strong pro-American message even if we win the presidency our country loses. America will never be great again until we are once again a sovereign and self-reliant nation, which results in a strong industrial base and a thriving middle class.
The Quadfather| 5.23.11 @ 1:26AM
What we need is to get rid of the Community Investment Act. It wasn't the banks that caused the financial crash, it was the government for pressuring them into making all those bad loans. If you have the government breathing down your neck, and they're offering to buy off the loans (freddie and fannie) at the same time, what do you do?
Sean| 5.20.11 @ 7:54AM
"Pawlenty is baggage-free" what are you talking about? The guy was for cap and trade liberal crap.
Occam's Tool| 5.20.11 @ 3:51PM
Indeed. He also was completely worthless on the Franken recount, and did NO campaigning for the Republican candidate to replace him. Mild and fairly ineffectual Pawlenty.
OllieK| 5.20.11 @ 8:47AM
How could you leave Rick Perry out? I think (hope) he is biding his time for an opportune entry after all the others have shot themselves in the foot. He is the real deal: a rock solid conservative on all major economic and social issues with extensive executive experience. Oh, and he's clean and articulate, too (as Plugs Biden would point out).
righthook38 | 5.22.11 @ 5:45PM
I would love to see Perry get in this race. He's tough, and he has a proven track record. He can run things, so unlike Pres Obama. And it would be fun to watch Perry go toe to toe with Obama in a debate. Obama would be uh,uh, uh'ing through the entire show.
Louis Jenkins| 5.20.11 @ 9:19AM
All of this talk, and not one mention of Cain? Come on, let's get honest here Mr. Mehan. The field is still wide open.
Patrick| 5.20.11 @ 10:21PM
He has a few good, loyal followers, which is good, but that alone doesn't make for a win. He's still in "unknown" territory.
I nearly vomited when I saw Mitt as a real contender.
John| 5.20.11 @ 9:22AM
Another issue these one-world pseudo-conservative candidates seem silent on is the Fed-gone-wild -- printing monopoly money to enrich too-big-to fail banks/investment firms and to prop up Wall Street, while Main Street gets pink slips, foreclosed houses, and 1% CDs. Another crash is coming soon from this reckless Fed behavior.
Pecos Pete| 5.20.11 @ 9:52AM
How can you write about a kaleidoscope without including Herman Cain?
Mr. Cain might not end up being the republican candidate but he certainly will provide the primaries a, ummmm, twist.
righthook38 | 5.22.11 @ 5:46PM
I like Cain a lot. Unfortunately, he does have the name recognition right now. I would definitely consider voting for him, but just not sure if he can get the nod. May be a good VP pick though.
Dai Alanye | 5.20.11 @ 10:22AM
This is a strange article in many ways. Mehan #3 seems to dismiss Santorum simply on the basis that Americans won't vote for a Catholic. I thought we had settled that question when Kennedy was elected.
He then dismisses Palin and Bachmann without any basis whatsoever, leaving one to assume that he either swallows Dem propaganda that each is merely a content-free sloganeer, or that he believes in kinder, kuche, kirche.
As for his anointed leaders--Pawlenty, Romney, Daniels--each is carrying baggage that might prove difficult to discard. It's early innings yet, and as far as I can see the field is wide open.
Chalkdust| 5.20.11 @ 11:32AM
Listening to books on tape while driving in Northern Virginia traffic may cause brain damage. Please...why not bring back John McCain?
Why is it so many Conservative pundits fell compelled to write what they over-hear at Washington, DC cocktail parties? Romney and Pawlenty (Mass./Min. men respectively) are just the types liberals would love to see cast against Obamisky.
The editor of AS should be spanked for paying good money for this tripe.
Pall Leosson| 5.20.11 @ 11:53AM
As a Canadian observer of the GOP situation gearing up for 2012, Herman Cain strikes me as the most intelligent, attractive, and viable candidate for the Republican Party leadership and the President of the United States.
Michael| 5.20.11 @ 12:14PM
Liberals and the media must learn to say, just like "President Reagan",...."President Palin".
Dave Williams| 5.20.11 @ 1:48PM
Perry / Cain or Cain / Perry for me!
PattyMor| 5.20.11 @ 3:43PM
You must have been breathing exhaust fumes to be able to write this article. TPaw did indeed embrace global warming before he did his mea culpa. Then there is his daliance with Sharia compliant financing for a housing project.
Don't count the Hermanator out. He was superb in the debate. Clear, concise and direct. No political double speak.
And Sarah is the most Reanesque. She can draw crowds and raise money. If she jumps in, she will give every one a run for their money. And, I do think she is running.
Mr. Daniels is Mr. Milktoast. He does have a great record as a governor. But Bush showed us that being the governor of a conservative State does not make you a conservative. The reason is that as governor, you have a lot more restrictions on your actions.
Occam's Tool| 5.20.11 @ 3:52PM
PattyMor,
agree with every word.
Rob| 5.20.11 @ 4:30PM
Left unmentioned is that Mitt Romney is the father of gay marriage in Massachusetts, as documented in extensive detail in a recent book by Amy Contrada. His decisive role in changing state policy on gay marriage, without regard to the requirements of the state's constitutional requirements, deserves far more attention than it has received to date by conservative commentators.
Wayne | 5.20.11 @ 10:46PM
Sorry I am not getting the sexism.
Replica Handbags&wallet; | 5.21.11 @ 1:17AM
Left unmentioned is that Mitt Romney is the father of gay marriage in Massachusetts, as documented in extensive detail in a recent book by Amy Contrada. His decisive role in changing state policy on gay marriage, without regard to the requirements of the state's constitutional requirements, deserves far more attention than it has received to date by conservative commentators.
Bob| 5.21.11 @ 8:05AM
A stitch in time saves nine, 16 stitches couldn't save Governor Runt's presidential aspirations. A swinging door got the best of him. He and his runaway wife Cheri have just been scratched. Please post a pic of the Gov with his bald head stitched up.
JimW9| 5.21.11 @ 9:13AM
Wow, what a Rorschach test!
Let's see, I look at the Republican field and see Herman Cain, Herman Cain, Herman Cain. Someone else looks at the same field and sees Ron Paul, Ron Paul, Ron Paul, etc., etc.
Now, I'll be upfront and admit my bias. Yes, Herman Cain excites the hell out of me. I strongly believe that his intellectual, philosophical and leadership abilities will rally the country like no other.
But Mr Mehan (the III), please; at least take your gray-colored glasses off for a moment and take another look at this picture. Now, you see. He's there. Once you remove the bland blinders good ole Tim fades back into the pack. Hey, look, he's there next to Mitt. (What kind of name is Mitt, anyway?)
At least you can now see Herman. He's the one with the oratorical glow, the winning smile, the quick wit.
Hope you keep those glasses off for a while - at least until you can get an article or two on the Spectator.
Dee See| 5.21.11 @ 11:47AM
----Far as we can tell, one and all vetted and 'on board' with the Globalist's American takedown agenda.
A kaliaidescope in black and white of franchise
slum logos ---surely, surely.
Oldefarte| 5.21.11 @ 3:23PM
The race is just beginning. Along with Sarah, I prefer a candidate who knows how to read/prepare/analyze budgets as a governor or corporate executive. Our most critical problems are the defecit/debt, and unemployment, which will require not a single-tongued devil [we've have a excrement-pot full of those in my lifetime, and the result has been the current cesspool we're now in], but a competent, professionally capable administrator that knows how to make difficult decisions, to analyze, and the political guts/courage to carry same out. I'm sick and tired of political blowhards puffing smoke up my backside, and I want a do'er, not a talker!!!!!!!
Bob| 5.22.11 @ 6:09AM
Hot off the presses! Daniels out of presidential race KO'd by swinging door. I predicted it yesterday, please note comments above. Darn, I wanted the full story on Cheri and the Doc.
Michael L. Hauschild| 5.22.11 @ 7:58AM
Those stiches were actually from a snowmobile belt spanner wrench, he woke up last night with a severed caribou head in his bed.
OLD RAY| 5.22.11 @ 12:53PM
Don't write off Sarah Palin. This lady has a sense of timing ,real values, experience in a range of polital struggles. She is a blend of Ronald Regan , Thatcher and a bit of Churchill . No current Republican can come near her as a stimulating speaker. Liberals and European haters of America naturally hate her. What could be a better recommendation? AND she can take it as well as dish it out. Courage, patriotism, common sense. She's the real thing. If chosen and if she runs with someone like Marco Rubio along side, there could be a Republic landslide victory (for the country and the Free World).
righthook38 | 5.22.11 @ 5:49PM
Most definitely. Palin/Rubio would be a great ticket!
Bubba Shawn| 5.22.11 @ 1:31PM
America desperately needs conservative former governor as President. Tim Pawlenty will provide the Presidential leadership that will reduce the size and cost of the federal government.
Tim Pawlenty understands that the 2010 election was about how fed up American taxpayers are with being stuck for paying for expensive unintentional consequences from good intentioned big government decisions. Tim Pawlenty has smart solutions and is on the same page as Paul Ryan and other Republican leaders in Congress that are seriously addressing the out of control federal spending and growing federal debt.
The 2012 election gives voters a chance to elect a conservative governor who passed 8 state budgets that reduced spending without raising taxes through a hostile liberal Democrat majority legislature. Governor Tim Pawlenty’s successful conservative record proves that he is the only Presidential candidate that can be trusted and is up to the job.
2012 can’t get here soon enough.
da monk| 5.22.11 @ 6:51PM
Per Stan Laurel of Laurel and Hardy regarding the candidates: "It's a fine kettle you've got us into"
The Quadfather| 5.23.11 @ 1:11AM
I do like Bachmann. She is a fighter and she will take the fight to the liberals. As for columnists determining who is viable and who is not, that's our job. I suspect the real reason for that is to sabotage their chances anyway. I think that any of them could beat Obama, now that the country has seen what he's all about. We just need to concentrate on who would do the best job of cleaning up Obama's mess. I believe Bachmann can do it.