Does torture work? Can we get reliable, actionable intelligence
by torturing people?
That ugly debate has raised its head again after the death
of Osama bin Laden. Some are claiming that waterboarding provided
vital information that led to his whereabouts and ultimate demise.
But are these claims accurate?
With the information available currently, there is no way
of knowing for sure. It is entirely possible that other methods
could have extracted the same information. The more important
objection, however, is that the accuracy of the information
obtained from waterboarding is not known. Maybe waterboarding led
the U.S. to Osama. Good. But, it is only one data point. What if
waterboarding also gave us 99 false leads? That would make enhanced
interrogation methods only 1% accurate.
Without more data, it is simply not possible to declare
waterboarding to be more successful at gathering authentic
information than any other method. Thankfully, science can
help.
A very straightforward experiment could provide a nearly
definitive answer to the torture question. Critically, if you are
willing to suspend ethics and morality, I would like to offer a
modest proposal: a randomized controlled trial (RCT).
Normally, biomedical researchers conduct RCTs to determine
the effectiveness of new treatments or experimental drugs. In our
experiment, we will substitute potential life-saving therapies with
waterboarding. Patients in need will be replaced with terrorists
indeed.
Start with 100 terrorists. (If concerns about statistical
significance arise, that number could easily be bumped up to 200
terrorists.) Finding voluntary participants could be challenging,
but several potential enrollees are already waiting at Guantanamo
Bay. Then, split them into two interrogation groups. The first
group will constitute the “control” group. They will receive
cookies and milk. The second group will be the “experimental
group.” They also will receive cookies and milk, but a regularly
scheduled daily waterboarding will be added, as well.
After five or ten years, all the information gathered from
the two interrogation groups would be analyzed and assessed for
accuracy. If the control group was more accurate, then
waterboarding does not work. But, if the experimental group was
more accurate, then the CIA may want to consider ordering more
buckets.
Using this technique, there is no limit on the torture
methods that could be tested. Sleep deprivation, constant tickling,
and forced watching of Justin Bieber music videos could constitute
follow-up experiments.
Of course, this project does pose some moral hazards.
However, science is not in the business of dealing with pesky
issues like ethics. Just ask the U.S. Public Health Service about
all the African Americans they let die from syphilis in Tuskegee,
Alabama.
Science could settle the torture question. How badly do
you want to know the answer?
