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Streetcar Line
Augusta’s Rising Sun
Tiger challenged by age and youth.
So you’re sitting in the Charlotte airport waiting for your connector flight back to D.C., and the guy next to you is wearing a Masters hat. He is just returning from watching a practice round at Augusta National — his first-ever visit to golf’s grand cathedral. His eyes are almost glazed, his voice wistful, just as your own eyes and voice were glazed and wistful after your first visit to the storied Georgian hills. Suddenly, as he describes what he saw, you yourself are back there, too, reliving last year’s in-person experience of Phil’s fine final two rounds. Somehow, though, your most vivid image isn’t of Mickelson’s exploits, but of Fred Couples chipping in for eagle on Saturday. You hear yourself saying that no matter how casually cool and at ease Couples usually looks on TV — almost preternaturally so — he somehow seems even more cool and casually at ease, with his sockless deck shoes and his trademark stroll, in person.
Then it hits you: EVERYTHING at Augusta seemed even more than it looks in the always-brilliant CBS telecasts. More beautiful. More rolling. More daunting. Everything and everybody just seems more itself or more himself. It’s like going from a daguerreotype to a perfectly focused digital photograph — and then watching it start to live and breathe in front of your eyes.
That’s what the guy at the airport had just experienced. No wonder he was glassy-eyed and wistful.
Anyway, telling about the guy at the airport let me avoid leading this column with Tiger Woods. That’s a good thing, because ever since 1997 the lead storyline entering The Masters always involved Woods, in one way or another, and those storylines always annoyed me because I never was a Tiger fan. It’s not that I disliked him, but he never struck me as being very likeable, either, and I resented how he dominated the game without showing quite the grace or approachability of Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer.
The problem with not leading with Woods this year is that for months I have been convinced he would win the 2011 version. A good journalist leads with his key point, and my key point was going to be that Woods would win Masters title number five.
The big question about Woods, of course, is whether he will get enough of his mojo back so that he can renew his chase of, and then overcome, Nicklaus’s record of 18 major professional titles. Woods stands at 14. Woods is now 35 years old. The three other greatest pros, all-time, kept playing superbly for years beyond their 35th birthdays: Ben Hogan won eight majors after birthday 35, Nicklaus won six, and Sam Snead won five. Surely, then, it would seem to be doable.
Except… except…except that for every other mere mortal, and even for a number of golf immortals, the 35th birthday has been a major dividing line. Remember, Woods needs four more major victories to tie Nicklaus. Let’s consider how many majors, combined, were won by all the following players after their 35th birthdays: Bobby Jones, Arnold Palmer, Byron Nelson, Billy Casper, Cary Middlecoff, Gene Sarazen, Tom Watson, Lloyd Mangrum, Severiano Ballesteros, Lee Trevino, and Johnny Miller. Heck, why stop there? How about adding all of the following to the list, each of whom won at least 20 PGA tour events: Horton Smith, Harry Cooper, Leo Diegel, Gene Littler, Paul Runyan, Henry Picard, MacDonald Smith, Johnny Farrell, Lanny Wadkins, Davis Love, and Doug Sanders.
Remember, we’re asking how many major titles these people won, after age 35, when combining all their records. Let’s keep going. Throw in Ernie Els, Curtis Strange, Jim Furyk, Ralph Guldahl, Fred Couples, Jose Maria Olazabal, Fuzzy Zoeller, Dave Stockton, Tony Jacklin, Lee Janzen, Sandy Lyle, John Daly, John Mahaffey, Mark Calcavecchia, David Duval, Tom Weiskopf, Craig Stadler, and Colin Montgomerie.
Together, these 40 men have won (by my count) 871 PGA tour events, at least 156 European Tour events (that’s not counting how many Euro events were won by the listed Americans), and 102 professional major titles.
But how many majors did they win after their 35th birthdays?
Three. Casper, Middlecoff, and Trevino won one each. The other 37 struck out. Nada. Zip. Zilch.
Even in a game like golf that lends itself to long careers, sport at the highest level is a young man’s pursuit. Great athletes have a very hard time maintaining their superior skills into their late 30s. Sure, occasionally a very good golfer will win a single major after age 35. Ben Crenshaw, Hale Irwin, Greg Norman, and Tom Kite each won one. Fine: Woods would have to match the combined post-35 careers of those four superstars, all of whom won more in the latter parts of their careers than the early parts, just to pull even with Nicklaus.
But here’s where the contrarian steps forward. Modern equipment, he says, is so much more forgiving, and fitness levels are so much higher these days, that golfers now last longer. A slightly mishit drive still travels 285 yards and stays in the fairway. An off-center approach with a cavity-backed iron stays on the green the way an approach with a blade would not. And Lee Trevino and Billy Casper surely never set foot inside a fitness trailer. For evidence, contrarians can point to three players in the last decade alone who have won three majors after their 35th birthdays: Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, and Padraig Harrington. As for fitness being important, they can point to famously fit Gary Player, who also won three majors post-35. Woods, say the contrarians, is at least the player those four are.
Fine. Let Tiger win three more majors as well. That still would leave him one shy of Nicklaus. And Tiger appears to be an old 35. His knee has been torn up and probably will never allow him the same torque he applied as a youngster. His fitness obsession probably went too far: Like Johnny Miller after chopping wood all one winter, Woods seems to have developed a physique not conducive to the flexibility a golfer needs. And, of course, his post-divorce psyche and his propensity to make huge swing changes are both seen as hindrances as well. For all those reasons, the smart money is on Woods not surpassing the Golden Bear. That’s especially so if Woods doesn’t win this week at Augusta: Nicklaus won The Masters at age 35, when he was still at the top of his game, before Tom Watson arrived to challenge his dominance. If Woods can’t win this week, it would mean he’s already gone 11 straight majors without a victory. Nicklaus played the entire decade of his 30s without going winless for more than 10 majors — and in that streak of 10 he finished second twice to Watson, second to Miller at the British Open, and notched two other thirds, a fourth, a sixth, a seventh, a tenth and an eleventh. Woods, instead, has just one runner-up in his current winless streak of ten, and has also finished 23rd, 28th, and missed a cut. In short, Woods’ game at age 35 seems far more degenerated than Nicklaus’s did even at 38, when Jack broke back into the winner’s circle at St. Andrew’s.
For all those reasons, smart money is writing off Wood’s chances this week. Smart money knows that a golfer with his swing askew, his psyche in question, his putter inconsistent, and his age past the historical cusp is a golfer who can’t navigate the razor’s edge that is Augusta National’s test of worthiness.
About the Author
Quin Hillyer is a senior editor of The American Spectator and a senior fellow at the Center for Individual Freedom. Follow him on Twitter @QuinHillyer.
Who Knows?| 4.7.11 @ 8:35AM
What those experts with big sticks hitting a tiny ball can do is, truly, astounding.
Even so, might as well watch an archery contest.
Ho hum.
In my dotage, having long ago gotten over the “special” tiny ball hitters of my youth---to wit, Palmer and Nicklaus---I find it impossible to seriously care about any of it.
When I do bother to observe, and understand, the earnestly jacked efforts beamed out of my TV, it just makes me laugh.
Perhaps aging, or better put, living long enough to have seen generational shifts in any sport, makes one wise---or, is that jaded?
At any rate, for as long as Woods has been a standout, the puke response when I happen to see his TV image has just continued to grow.
Of course, this always happens for me for all presidents, especially the jackasses like Obama.
Thank Gaia for remotes!
When I “see” Woods, it’s an instant change to another channel, before I get sick and die---and, I don’t want to die, YET!
PCC| 4.7.11 @ 8:57AM
Nice article, Mr. Hillyer.
The key to victory at the The Masters has always been the short game, and often it has come down to putting alone.
Everyone remembers Norman's collapse against Faldo on the final day in 1996, but actually Norman played tee-to-green on Sunday pretty much the way he had on Saturday: poorly. The difference was, he putted like a god during the 3rd round, especially the back nine, and there was just no way he could conjure that magic again on Sunday. Which he didn't.
michigander_sandusky| 4.7.11 @ 8:58AM
Woods may break Jack's record of major wins. However, Woods will never come within a million miles of Jack's class and grace. When it comes to integrity Tiger always miserably fails to make the cut.
tdiinva| 4.7.11 @ 9:04AM
Last year I got paired with an orthopedic surgeon and I asked him if he thought Tiger played in pain. He said that after our knee surgeries hell yeah. Tiger had to change his swing because of his knee problems. The new swing is not a championship swing. He is pretty much done as a top ranked golfer. He will still win a few more times if he chooses to play on but he will not break Nicholas' major record or Snead's total victory record.
LarryK| 4.7.11 @ 9:57AM
Woods is through. Period!
Reap - sow
Karma,
Call it what you will.
Kilgore Trout| 4.7.11 @ 10:32AM
I hope he never makes another cut in a major. He's an arrogant, sleaze bag.
Occam's Tool| 4.7.11 @ 10:36AM
Didn't Woods blow off POTUS (Bush) in an event honoring Jackie Robinson? Should have known then he was a rotter.
Steve A| 4.7.11 @ 10:38AM
I am just shocked that not one single golf analyst has picked up on this in all of the analysis of Tiger.
If you paid close attention to Tiger through the years, you come to 2 concrete facts:
#1: Even during his incredible dominant streak, there were many players who hit it as well tee to green.
#2: The difference maker for him was the putter. Every big putt, every clutch putt, every 4' downhill bender,in the back of the cup for about a 6 year period.
After the bimbo parade, the putter went south & has not been seen since. Tiger is an also ran tee to green. Plenty of guys hit it by him now. History shows that once the putter goes, it may come back in brief flashes, but it is never the same.
Woods will win again & he will win a major again, but the dominant Tiger is a thing of the past. He sold all of his putter karma for a string of hos.
NaturalBorn Texican| 4.7.11 @ 10:48AM
I love golf! I have golf in my family. My oldest son is superintendant of a beautiful course in the Austin area, AND he is an excellant golfer himself. My middle son played golf (as well as basketball and football in high school) and is also an excellant athlete!
I am pulling for Phil. Tiger? Ehhhh! another talent deminished by the choices he made in his personal life. I have no respect for him despite his talent concerning golf.
Roll models should be role models in so many MORE ways than just their chosen profession.
I pick Phil as a role model for my sons and my daughter.
And I pick Phil to win the Masters again!
MacDaddy| 4.7.11 @ 10:55AM
I truly hope it is not an unacknowledged racism which is spurring the schadenfreude which many seem to be experiencing as Tiger Woods' era of dominance ebbs. Once upon a time, Tiger could and did amazing, astounding things on a golf course. He strutted and strode the courses of the world the way Babe strutted at Yankee Stadium, the way Ali strode into the ring. Sad to see how the mighty fall from grace when they are deemed wanting in social grace or standing. I, too, must admit that I've never wanted to see the day that Tiger surpassed Mr. Nicklaus' win total for majors. But I no longer cheer Tiger's failures. I wish him a level playing field and health so that he might continue to challenge Jack's record, and in doing so find humility, redemption and peace.
benny havens| 4.7.11 @ 11:02AM
No matter who wins, no matter what place Woods finishes, the media can’t wait to interview him. When I competed in sports, the guy who came in second, third or fourth was never brought before the camera. I don't get it.
Steve A| 4.7.11 @ 11:06AM
MacDaddy, the reality for me is this. If Tiger is not playing, good or bad, I am less interested in watching. I have always pulled for Tiger because I appreciate excellence. Phil bores me to tears. Not sure why.
To even insinuate race is a factor I believe is utter nonsense. It is lonely at the top & if you stumble, there are those who wish to see you fail. This goes for white dudes also.
astorian| 4.7.11 @ 11:19AM
I’ve seen a LOT of columns like Mr. Hilyer’s. In fact, over the past year, I’ve seen DOZENS of columnists saying, in essence, “Not only will Tiger be back better than ever, all the millions of nay-sayers who are counting Tiger out and writing him off are only motivating Tiger!
Some time ago, Joe Posnanski addressed and rebutted that kind of commentary :
http://joeposnanski.si.com/201.....off-tiger/
Posnanski asks, fairly, “WHAT nay-sayers? WHO’S counting him out? WHERE are all these millions of commentators who are writing him off? Practically NOBODY is saying Tiger is washed up… even though there’s plenty of reason to think he is.”
Posnanski also notes that, whereas SOME great athletes psych themselves up by telling themselves, “Nobody thinks I’m any good, nobody gives me my props, nobody gives me any respect EVERYBODY is against me, EVERYBODY thinks I’m nothing… but I’ll show them.” But to put it mildly, Tiger Woods has NEVER been one of those guys! On the contrary, Tiger always walked onto every course knowing that he was much, much better than anyone he was competing against. And his competitors knew it, too! Every player on the course knew that, if Tiger was anywhere CLOSE to peak form, nobody else had a prayer.
Tiger is still dm good. He CAN still win more tournaments, and I’m sure he will. He CAN still win more majors, and it won’t surprise me if he does. But he doesn’t intimidate anyone, and he never will again. Nobody will EVER again melt down on the back nine, just because Tiger is making a run of birdies.
Tiger is now just ONE of the world’s best golfers. He still has a chance to be the best again- but he will NEVER again stand head and shoulders above everyone else. And that is a HUGE blow to his chances at the Masters this year.
The fact that so many fans and reporters still expect Tiger to come roaring back and dominate the PGA tour as he used to proves something: a lot of people just don’t take golf seriously as a sport. People think of golf as an old man’s game. Hence, they figure Tiger, at “just” 35, is still a young man with decades of top-notch golf ahead of him.
They’re wrong.
Five years ago, I was 100% certain that Tiger would surpass Nicklaus’ record for career majors. Today? I’d say he still has a chance, but only a slim one.
Roscoe| 4.7.11 @ 11:40AM
Occam's Tool said: "Should have known then he was a rotter."
I knew way before then.
Bob Grant| 4.7.11 @ 11:48AM
Quinn, I like your piece but the where's the true analysis? ...
I'm no Tiger fan but he should, sadly, surpass the Golden Bear's record with relative ease for the following undeniable reasons:
(a) The competition. The greats of the past had to win their majors competing against real competition who played, not only for titles, but for survival. The competition was fierce because the pros were gamblers who played for MONEY, not weekly lotto winnings. The pros played each other, week-in, week-out, and the competition against each other was palpable. Today's player is a production-line-type athlete who, I believe, has no intention to be great but to make small fortunes during their 15 minutes of fame. The countless, faceless, winners of majors the past 10 years is truly unremarkable. Players today simply don't have what it takes to make those impressive Sunday runs like past champions of lore. Tiger Will ALWAYS be in contention because of the nature of today's competitor.
(b) Granted, Tiger's driving ability is completely overrated but his putting is underrated. He has the capability to go on TRULY INSANE putting streaks that are in-and-of-themselves good enough to blow past the competition. His putting streaks are truly legendary.
(C) Although he has knee problems, it wont prevent Tiger from competing for majors the next 15 years. With his sizable bank account and medical breakthroughs, his ability to compete will not erode.
skip| 4.7.11 @ 1:27PM
Golf is the ultimate sport.
Failure can never be blamed on incompetent or corrupt officiating or the performance of a teammate.
The ultimate in golf is The Masters.
The Masters is bigger than any golfer, even Bobby Jones.
Pointless predictions of potential performances by any golfer pale in comparison to witnessing the actual rounds played.
A conservative acknowledges 18 is greater than 14.
A liberal emotes that should 14 increase by 50% then 18 could never be considered great like 21.
mames| 4.7.11 @ 2:11PM
I am convinced that integral to Tiger's ability to win was his perception of himself as "king of the hill, "more influencial than Christ" as his indulgent daddy was want to say. Nobody sees him that way anymore and I'm confident that is why he is not winning - he must have ALL the admiration and that will never happen again. Nicklaus, Player, Palmer, Watkins, Miller all displayed a high level of integrity , morality and ethics both on and off the course making their achievements even more impressive. No one will love Tiger the way he once thought they did and he can't handle that, can't feed off of that energy anymore because it does not exist anymore.
CalMark| 4.7.11 @ 2:35PM
Tiger Woods is among the rarest of cult figures. Only Michael Jordan, Joe DiMaggio, and Babe Ruth compare.
Such "gods" typically have unhappy endings because they are one-dimensional. Babe Ruth and Joe DiMaggio: tragic off-field lives, both. Michael Jordan is well down that path (messy divorce, unending attention seeking including a comeback, etc.). Tiger is struggling to turn back from that road.
Build not monuments to men in their own lives, especially those conscious of their own greatness. Shelley sums it up in his poem, "Ozymandias."
Bob Grant| 4.7.11 @ 3:26PM
Response to Mames:
Yes, I agree the degree to which the public fawns over him will be nothing like in the past, and, as a result, won't have quite the level of energy from the crowd from which to feed.
I disagree that he had a superiority complex, but a level of competitiveness that is rarely, if ever, seen.
I'm not a fan by any means but always respected him as a competitor.
Tina B| 4.7.11 @ 6:53PM
Tiger, Tiger, burning bright.
Watching that 16th hole shot was like watching magic. Every last inch of it. Right down to the pause on the lip. And Tiger's response, arm pumping, high fiving, a look of ecstasy, for just a moment, total awe in what he had just felt himself do.
I felt an almost abnormal mathematics was taking place as I watched it roll and curve and then pause, and then just drop in, as if blown by a whisper of God, or someone.
Only time will tell who or what was propelling Tiger back then. His dad, his work ethic, his ability to almost meditate just before he took his swing, the zen of it was definitely his for a long period of time. And then . . . pride comes before a fall? Or the bigger they all, the harder yadda yadda .
Only Tiger can choose who he serves. If it gets him to heaven, I'm all for it, personally. Win or lose, whatever gets him home.
C S Lewis| 4.8.11 @ 10:30PM
Tiger's on a roll! 9 birdies and two bogies. And three missed birdie putts under 6 feet. And that's just on Friday! 7 under and T3.
Creative Recreation | 8.10.11 @ 10:40PM
is good