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Overstating Boston
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The Obama Watch
Withholding Credit
Everyone knows the president deserves no credit for the recent employment gains — but do Republicans?
Like a medieval “doctor” telling an ignorant patient that his recovery was due to being bled by leeches, Barack Obama’s claims that our recent modest economic improvements flow from his economic policies aren’t — and shouldn’t be — fooling anyone (except perhaps reporters and other Democrats).
On Friday morning, the Department of Labor released the March employment data showing a gain in nonfarm payrolls of 216,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 8.8%, down 0.1% from February and down 1% since November.
N.Y. Times reporter Jackie Calmes, no partisan she, offered this hopeful analysis: “[A]s the unemployment rate ticked down, the hopes of Mr. Obama and his party ticked up: perhaps by the approaching election year they could claim vindication for the stimulus policies Democrats have enacted, or at least dodge the sort of blame that Republicans so effectively stuck them with last November in the midterm elections.”
Ms. Calmes’ NYT colleague Michael Powell gave a more balanced discussion, noting that although “March was the 12th consecutive month of private sector job growth… [the] numbers also offered more than a few cautionary signs that the national economy was not cured of all its ills.”
Indeed job growth coming out of this recession is taking far longer and recovering much more slowly than in prior recessions, bad news for a nation that has suffered far worse job loss than at any time since the Great Depression. (See this chart from Calculated Risk Economics for a “picture worth 1000 words” representation of the data.)
Nevertheless, the Obama Administration is trying to use Friday’s report to its political advantage. Indeed, Ms. Calmes’ article was entitled “Job growth alters playbook for Obama and his Critics,” though there is no evidence that Obama’s critics or political opponents — or even American citizens more broadly — give Obama credit for any improvement in our economy.
And why should they? Obama famously promised, based on the report by his former chief economic advisor, Christina Romer, that if the “stimulus” were passed, unemployment would stay below 8%. Instead, it hit 10%. Furthermore, the number of unemployed Americans remained almost constant around 15 million people, and the unemployment rate fairly constant between 9.5% and 10.1% from June 2009 until (wait for it!) December. What was December? It was the first month after the election in which Republicans won back control of the House and made solid gains in the Senate, setting up a likely Republican majority in that body after the next election. And perhaps more importantly, it was the month in which that new Republican majority compelled Barack Obama to agree to extend the Bush Tax Cuts.
In other words, essentially all of the improvement in employment conditions occurred once employers knew that the Democrat radicals led by Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Barack Obama would no longer be capable of to shoving their Keynesian econo-nonsense and hyper-regulation down our throats, at least not through legislation.
But President Obama is oblivious to what the rest of the nation (except Democrats) sees. Speaking at a United Parcel Service facility on Friday (UPS is unionized while FedEx isn’t…), the president warned that a government shutdown over the size of federal budget cuts would be “the height of irresponsibility” and that a shutdown would “halt our economic momentum because of the same old Washington politics.”
Beyond the fact that arguing over whether to cut government spending by $30 billion or $60 billion (or even $100 billion) is hardly the same old politics, Americans recognize and the data show that the American people believe Republican plans to cut spending are good for the economy and good for business.
It’s not just the backward-looking employment data that bear this out. A Rasmussen Reports poll also released Friday shows that “57% of Likely U.S. Voters think making deeper spending cuts in the federal budget for 2011 is more important than avoiding a partial government shutdown. Thirty-one percent (31%) disagree and say avoiding a shutdown is more important.” Not surprisingly, 54% of Democrats want to avoid a shutdown while 76% of Republicans think deeper spending cuts are the priority. The point of the political spear, however, is the all-important unaffiliated vote, of which a remarkable 67% also prioritize spending cuts over avoiding a federal government shutdown.
Similarly, while 69% of Democrats would keep funding the government at current levels until a spending agreement can be made among members of Congress, “74% of GOP voters and 70% of unaffiliateds would rather have a shutdown until an agreement on deeper cuts can be reached.”
Members of the Obama Administration are drinking their own Kool-Aid. Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis asserts that “the policies and programs of this Administration are working.” Indeed they are, in the way that a leech works on a patient; the patient improves in spite of, and not because of, the treatment.
But that’s just their red Kool-Aid; we can’t forget about their green Kool-Aid, which was also on offer on Friday as both Obama and Solis touted the Administration’s “green energy” obsession. According to the president, “But we have to keep up the momentum, and transitioning to a clean energy economy will help us do that.” And according to Solis, “The growth of the clean energy economy will bring significant changes to the American workplace and require workers to acquire new and different skills.” Anyone catch that “require” bit? Since when has government requiring millions of people to “acquire” skills or anything else helped do anything but swell the ranks of government bureaucrats?
If there’s one thing you can count on “Progressives” for, it’s to ignore the lessons of history, even very recent history, with their belief that any big-government plan that goes wrong was simply due to its not being big enough or implemented by smart enough people. Nevertheless, a few European examples of “green jobs” are instructive.
About the Author
Ross Kaminsky is a self-employed trader and investor and is a senior fellow of the Heartland Institute. He is the host of The Ross Kaminsky Show on Denver’s NewsRadio 850 KOA at 11 AM on most Sundays. You can reach Ross by e-mail at rossputin(at)rossputin(dot)com.
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Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 4.4.11 @ 7:07AM
I think this is the first month, and it may be the only one where the number of jobs allegedly created exceeded 150,000. That's the minimum number needed just to stay even.
So the latest numbers show job growth. But that's only one month, and those numbers are hardly encouraging for the long run.
What those numbers mask is that income in America continues to fall and at an alarming rate. While incomes fall, governments still want more income which appears to portend a dangerous situation as governments continue to live on more and more wealth seized from the public.
Between 2007 and 2009 incomes in America fell 4.8% and also fell 4.8% between the years 2000 to 2009. The number of offspring still living with their parents has skyrocketed to 60% between 2008 and 2010.
According to the Census Bureau, 34 states saw income declines for families, while only one state North Dakota, saw incomes increase, and not by much.
The facts are there is nothing to brag about here by either party.
In fact, the Republicans need to dig out these facts and highlight and use them as factual talking points. They are real and the public will relate to them because they are living the results of the scheme triggered by one idiotic government plan after another.
vtwin| 4.4.11 @ 1:54PM
Under Obama, with seven straight quarters of economic growth since enacting his stimulus package, the nation’s jobs picture has improved from the 750,000 jobs/month LOSS rate Obama inherited from Bush to a 200,000 jobs/ month GAIN rate we have today. That’s a positive jobs turnaround picture from the Bush years of nearly a MILLION jobs per month.
Looks like four more years?
Elbows Decerega| 4.4.11 @ 2:00PM
Vote for Obama and unemployment will never get above 8%. Oh yea he's the man. It is time to give him more time for golf and NCAA picks. What a joke. He is unsustainable. I am sure GE and the solar and wind con artists will miss him.
daddio| 4.4.11 @ 4:44PM
"Vote for Obama and unemployment will never get above 8%"
Or did he say "below"....
Steve A| 4.4.11 @ 2:22PM
Hey vtwin, Can you give me the unemployment #s per year from 2000 to 2011 & then list what party controlled Congress? If you break it down by month, it is even more fun.
vtwin| 4.4.11 @ 2:53PM
Steve A, I don’t know but here’s an interesting unemployment statistic: Bush is the first President in history to have less people working at the end of his second term in office than were working at the start of his first term in office.
WhiteBikerTrash| 4.4.11 @ 4:01PM
Hey V-Twin, hows the Honda running? You noticed that too? I also noticed that GWB started with a Republican Congress but ended with a Democratic Congress, and deficits didn't really balloon until the Democrats started writing the budgets.
Wasn't it after that when GWB started losing jobs?
Karl Lucider Marx| 4.4.11 @ 4:20PM
Yes, unfortunately for Bush and the nation the Democrats took over the Congress in 2006 and immediately started screwing things up.
skip| 4.4.11 @ 9:16PM
vtwin vtwin vtwin,
I'm on to you. You so perfectly manipulate every position to be absolutely incorrect one hundred percent of the time.
You vtwin are a conservative who in order to further the cause plays devil's advocate to underscore the conservative position effectively and efficiently.
You have been outed.
William L. Gensert| 4.4.11 @ 7:27AM
If you are an obese, two pack a day smoker with pneumonia, if it doesn’t kill you, you will eventually get better. Crediting the cigarettes, the fatty foods and all the extra calories, is just like crediting the president’s stimulus for recent economic upticks and increases in employment. It requires a suspension of disbelief only present in Obama sycophants and journalists.
suzy000| 4.4.11 @ 8:17AM
It was predicted in Nov. that a return of the House to the GOP would improve job numbers just on the KNOWLEDGE that the Lib machine's forward movement had been stopped. But a recovery in full swing based on the GOP control of the House was not in the tea leaves. Obama's taking credit of this "new" job development will be shortlived. Housing numbers are so bad that a double dip recession does look evident.
Louis Jenkins| 4.4.11 @ 8:41AM
Ain't it grand? The government is on the verge of a shut down, and Obama claims things are getting peachier. Let it shut down and send the government employees packing for a few days. Jobs are created by the general business atmosphere, not by some person at a desk in DC. Yeah, the jobs created so far have been led by an extension of the Bush tax policy, but don't get too happy. Elections can change things quickly, and we could be back into the doldrums of a Democratic led congress in less than two years.
Louis Jenkins| 4.4.11 @ 8:41AM
Ain't it grand? The government is on the verge of a shut down, and Obama claims things are getting peachier. Let it shut down and send the government employees packing for a few days. Jobs are created by the general business atmosphere, not by some person at a desk in DC. Yeah, the jobs created so far have been led by an extension of the Bush tax policy, but don't get too happy. Elections can change things quickly, and we could be back into the doldrums of a Democratic led congress in less than two years.
JP| 4.4.11 @ 9:34AM
The uptick in private jobs is due to Obama's and Bernecke's easy money policies. When you're borrowing $4 billion/day some jobs are bound to be created. Each job cost the taxpayer $480,000. For some in the Democratic Party that is a bargin.
Dan| 4.4.11 @ 11:11AM
Did President Obama steal his 2012 re-election campaign slogan from a rival? http://t.co/pau3Yqu
vtwin| 4.4.11 @ 2:36PM
“Congressional Republicans must remind the voting public over and over that the recent turn for the better in job creation occurred immediately following the November election. They must repeat, early and often, the value of the extension of the Bush Tax Cuts.”
Do you really think the voters are dumb enough to believe that the “extension of the Bush Tax Cuts” which was in place when the economy crashed or that the defunding of Planned Parenthood and NPR by the Republicans is what made the difference?
WhiteBikerTrash| 4.4.11 @ 4:18PM
Ummm, V-Twin, Do you pay attention at all? Those tax cuts are now the Obama tax cuts! Are you really so dumb to believe that repeating George W. Bush's name will make it less than Obama's signature that extended that law and allowed this weak "Recovery" to continue?
And has Obama signed the bill that will defund PBS and Planned Parenthood? You know that NPR is just a branch of PBS. So are you so dumb that you thought such a vacuous argument could truly bend all but the most ill informed reader? Or is that the line you've bought?
arlo price| 4.4.11 @ 9:59PM
Wait until the 3rd 1/4 results are released.
Let's Roll
Joe Hamilton| 4.4.11 @ 11:28PM
Obama has done everything possible to permanently damage the US economy. Herbert Hoover was an economic genius in comparison. The rising price of imported oil transfers increasing billions of dollars from the US to some of our worse enemies such as the Saudis. Obama is doing everything to increase this loss of wealth by continuing his insane policies which , if enacted would raise the price of a gallon of gas to $6. His incredibly ignorant ideas are too numerous to mention. He is another democrat President who can thank a Republican congress for any improvement in the economy.
Johnny| 4.5.11 @ 6:46AM
Amen, JH, and in the same vain let us remember when Bush, whom I do not particularly like, is blamed over and over, was dealing with the dem congress that sank this ship in the first place, BARNEY FRANK via Freddie & Fannie!
Sam Levi| 4.5.11 @ 5:54PM
Why, I love Obama. Thanks to him, I had an extended two year vacation, without pay. When my vacation ended, I found the privledge of returning to work, in the same industry making 47.86 percent of what I made while that dastardly Bush was president.
Creative Recreation | 8.10.11 @ 10:55PM
is good
aluma wallet | 10.9.11 @ 2:27AM
I could have beat them both with a 1,000 good guerilla fighters. By the time they formed up to take on my attack I'd be gone leaving hundreds of dead on their side.
dual saw | 10.19.11 @ 11:22PM
Balance being further integrated to provide enterprise application deployment on a separate partition without data leakage into consumer class applications.
Peanut Machine | 10.27.11 @ 2:40AM
The penalties sadly do not include being shot, whipped and then secured in the stocks for a fortnight
Dried Fruits | 11.15.11 @ 9:18PM
I'd received a text, read the message, invited me to respond and then sent the response without me having to touch the phone. Now that really is useful and a lot safer.