Governor Jerry Brown’s foolproof plan to deal with California’s
$26 billion deficit hasn’t quite gone off the rails, but it’s
teetering.
The plan, announced early in his new term this year, was
to call a special election in June to let the voters decide whether
to extend for five years several taxes about to expire. At first,
the idea polled well, including majority support for the tax
extensions. This, along with some legislative budget cuts, would
solve the problem. If the voters said “no” to the tax extensions,
severe cuts would ensue, but the voters would have been warned in
advance. It was the perfect way for the Democrats to avoid being
held responsible for cutting popular programs. If the people voted
against the tax extensions, they couldn’t blame the
legislators.
Getting to the special election required a two-thirds vote
of the legislature. The Democratic majority is not quite lopsided
enough to do this without some Republican votes. Gradually,
Republican resistance to the costly special election stiffened.
Brown taunted the Republicans to come up with their own plan for
solving the deficit. His self-imposed deadline of March 10 for the
enabling vote came and went. A small group of Republican
legislators began meeting with Democratic counterparts and the
governor’s staff to see if a deal could be struck. They would
deliver the votes in exchange for public employee pension reform.
That’s the last thing the Democrats want, for these unions are the
state’s biggest special interest and the financier of many
Democratic legislative campaigns.
Next, the Republicans came forth with a comprehensive list
of four dozen elements to a deficit-reduction plan. Brown acted
surprised, though this is what he had requested. He abruptly cut
off talks with them. Now it’s back to politics as usual. He’s about
to barnstorm, including a visit to the district of the Senate
minority leader who, Brown says, “…is leading the charge to block
any other alternatives other than massive and destructive cuts.”
This translates into English as “blah, blah, blah,
blah.”
Meanwhile, voter support for the special election and the
tax extensions is slipping. Brown’s main option now is to get a
petition drive mounted to collect enough signatures for a November
ballot issue. This is high risk. Tax issues on the ballot
historically see their support decline as election day comes
closer. If they are not well above 50 percent when campaigning
begins, they are usually defeated. November is well beyond the June
30 date when the 2011-12 budget is required by law to be adopted.
If it loses in November, the last arrow in Brown’s quiver will be
to blame the Republicans — again. Yet it would be the Democratic
majority that must enact the “massive and destructive cuts.” Who
will the people blame for that?
Many Democratic legislators don’t want to think about
that, so they are turning their attention to more serious business.
They have introduced 2,323 bills this year, covering such urgent
issues as a revised definition of olive oil, Parks Make
Life Better Month, tax credits for commercial space vehicles, Spay
Day, regulation of caffeinated beer, how to describe a dog pound,
and regulation of pavement reflectivity in order to reduce global
warming.
