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At Large
The Brotherhood
The absence of clarity about its politics may be its greatest strength.
Just how dangerous is the Muslim Brotherhood? And if it is dangerous, just how capable is it of accomplishing its aims? The answers may not be as clear as one would think. At the same time the lack of clarity may be its greatest strength. It is surprisingly easy to conceive of a theoretical Muslim Brotherhood of far less capability than the one that is regularly characterized as a principal action instrument of Islamic ambition in Egypt.
No less an authority than Al Qaeda’s #2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, left the organization in the late 1980s, for, among other reasons, his perception of the Muslim Brotherhood’s crime of public espousal of nonviolence. He turned to the far more reliable murderous proclivities of Osama bin Laden and never once looked back.
These days the Brotherhood is characterized as everything from “an old man’s club of toothless talkers” to a powerful instrument of Sunni political aims. The group dropped out of sight after it was banned for its supposed role in a failed assassination of Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1954. Slowly the Brotherhood worked its way back into acceptance in Egypt as a counter balance to growing leftist movements, though Hosni Mubarak’s security apparatus found it to be a possible link to radical Islam and therefore kept it under careful surveillance.
In 1982 the Brotherhood’s international outreach in Syria was crushed. The Shia dominance of the government of Hafez al-Assad felt threatened by the Sunni ambitions personified by the Brotherhood’s covert operations. Trusted units of the Syrian army led by Hafez’s brother destroyed most of the city of Hama and tens of thousands of Sunnis were killed in the process. The Brotherhood’s Islamist insurrection had failed and its broader role in Islamic affairs was stunted for years to come.
The name itself carries a sense of Islamic militancy. Nonetheless, the Muslim Brotherhood is now expected to win at least 20% of the open Egyptian parliamentary seats, as it did in 2005 running as “independents” after being banned from electioneering under its own aegis. That may seem an inadequate number to create an effective voting bloc, but in this case of a divided electorate a firm 20% can construct a working majority coalition.
In the Egyptian political scene today, no other group can approach the cohesiveness and discipline of the Brotherhood. While spokesmen for the group do not shy away from using the term jihad, it is a social rather than political agenda that is emphasized. It has been said that the Brotherhood’s formula will be close to the winning popularity of Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has retained its position by downplaying the link between religion and politics while still observing a strong commitment to Islam. This political camouflage requires charismatic leadership.
In modern Egypt, post-Mubarak, it’s quite possible that an organization with anti-colonial, anti-secular roots that go back to 1928 could be accepted as representing a broad spectrum of voters in spite of its focus on Islam. And that is the key. If the Brotherhood can play the liberal Islamic card, appealing to a younger generation, it may be able to reproduce the success of the Turkish AKP. To do this will take a commitment to a new Egyptian leader and Mohammed ElBaradei is seeking that role.
The former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — and calculatedly not an America-friendly political figure — has rushed to gain approval of the Moslem Brotherhood as the sponsoring organization for his run at the new Egyptian presidency. It’s a bold move on the secular ElBaradei’s part and would be equally so for the Brotherhood. The endorsement is still in the “working out” stage within the Brotherhood despite an initial announcement of support in February. The older more conservative members are challenged for leadership roles by a younger generation who tend toward what Cairo analysts refer to as being more modern and reform-minded.
Today’s Egyptian voting public has no memory of the days when Hitler’s Mein Kampf was translated and distributed by the Brotherhood, with Nazism and hatred of Jews as a foundation of their politics. These days the Moslem Brotherhood works its anti-Zionist theme into its political rhetoric mostly in the context of support for Hezbollah and Hamas. This factor becomes key in electioneering as the Egyptian public awaits the Brotherhood’s decision on whether it will make an issue of abandoning Anwar Sadat’s peace treaty with Menachem Begin that has lasted since 1979.
So far the Moslem Brotherhood has put most of its pre-election effort into emphasizing its traditional and extensive commitment to social enterprises such as health programs and community centers countrywide. Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians are said to be members of the Brotherhood and they provide an outreach that the organization uses to maintain and expand its political influence.
One of the Brotherhood’s slogans is “Islam is the solution.” As most things Islamic, the meaning is ambiguous and varied in interpretation. One thing is clear, however: the Moslem Brotherhood will be a major factor not only in the next parliamentary and presidential elections, but in Egypt’s future strategic role. The question remains as to what form a future Brotherhood will take and if the secularly committed Egyptian military will accept it in a leadership position.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
btims| 4.1.11 @ 6:37AM
To many muslims, the MB are simply pios, devout faithful; perhaps a bit too political but they mean well. Their aim is to spread Islam throughout the world.
This is what the typical muslim believes (not me).
But its just about too late. The MB is now in the USA, thanks to endless immigration. And now we have a president who has some Islamic sympathies as well as having an actual, real past, being a muslim as a boy.
Is there any doubt why Obama's policies are as they are?
martin j smith| 4.1.11 @ 7:55AM
Waite till the MB crowd convert to Judaism. That will show Obama a thing or two. And waite till Obama visits Israel with his family on one of their famous vacations. Will he stay with the Netanyahu household ?
WilliamInWien| 4.1.11 @ 8:12AM
"This political camouflage requires charasmatic leadership". Well, then that rules out ElBaradei. ElBaradei is (was) a stiff UN bureacrat, with poor speaking skills and lack of interest/concern for those who worked at the IAEA. He gained his level of recognition standing next to former IAEA DG Hans Blix during the search for WMD in Iraq. Any "thinking" Egyptian voter should ask himself/herself: Where was this guy when we were uder the Mubarak regime? Answer: Being driven in a chauffeured Mercedes to and from work in a very comfortable and secure Vienna, Austria. But then again, the Nobel Prize winning ElBaradei would provide political camouflage for the brotherhood.
Thomas| 4.1.11 @ 11:26AM
The Muslim Brotherhood has sort of fallen off the world's radar screen in the last twenty years. Since their unsuccessful forays into violent opposition in the 70's and 80's, the Brotherhood went political, like Sinn Fein. But, as with Sinn Fein, their goals have not changed; the re-establishment of a Sunni Muslim empire from Spain to India. While Al Qaeda, Hamas, and others engage in active para-military and terrorist actions against Western and Middle Eastern governments, The Brotherhood pursues a political agenda. And, its greatest strength is the ability to organize, direct and, in some cases, control the actions of opposition factions across the entire breadth of the Middle East and even into Europe and the U.S. The Brotherhood, more so than any other Muslim organization, is truly international in scope.
The greatest danger presented by the Brotherhood arises from a political vacuum in Middle Eastern countries. The Brotherhood has the organization to heavily influence or even control countries used to autocratic rule. And, they have an espoused desire to do so.
Interestingly enough, the Persians [Iran] have the same objectives. The current leadership of Iran strongly desires to re-establish, and expand, the old Persian empire under a Shia Muslim leadership. Should the Brotherhood and Iran begin to expand in the region, they are going to clash, sooner or later. And Israel is between the two.
gary siebel| 4.1.11 @ 4:08PM
A key difference between Sunni and Shia, and one that makes Sunni, strangely enough, more susceptible to change over time, is that Sunni's believe in the election of their religious leadership, while Shia insists on leadership only by those who can claim lineage to Muhammad himself. The former is democratic, the latter tends toward recreating an aristocracy, or nobility, but with an Ayatollah at the top instead of a king.
The Muslim Brotherhood will be faced with a very simple but profound question, forced upon them by their fellow Egyptians: will the tourists still be welcome? If the Bro's say 'NO' they will have a political-economic crisis/dilemma on their hands. It therefore seems likely that they will have to say 'YES,' but with certain caveats (eg, women tourists will have to dress differently).
Iran hardliners have already said they hope the Bro's can get a government more to the Bro's liking, which has an ominous sound. The Bro's remark, that the 25% who voted against the recent referendum should not go "unnoticed' also sounds ominous. If I was one of those Facebook/Twitter youth, I would be looking for an exit strategy immediately. Instead of trying to organize above ground, they should start organizing Lenin style, cells of three, because, as with Castro, those who praise freedom too highly will become targets down the road.
It took centuries for Catholicism to be brought (almost -- they still hide their pedophiles) under the heel of civil government. Islam will follow a similar process.
Clint| 4.2.11 @ 9:09AM
Do your homework Gary.
"Despite headlines focusing on the priest pedophile problem in the Roman Catholic Church, most American churches being hit with child sexual-abuse allegations are Protestant, and most of the alleged abusers are not clergy or staff, but church volunteers.
These are findings from national surveys by Christian Ministry Resources (CMR), a tax and legal-advice publisher serving more than 75,000 congregations and 1,000 denominational agencies nationwide.
CMR's annual surveys of about 1,000 churches nationwide have asked about sexual abuse since 1993. They're a remarkable window on a problem that lurked largely in the shadows of public awareness until the Catholic scandals arose.
The surveys suggest that over the past decade, the pace of child-abuse allegations against American churches has averaged 70 a week. The surveys registered a slight downward trend in reported abuse starting in 1997, possibly a result of the introduction of preventive measures by churches.
"I think the CMR numbers are striking, yet quite reasonable," says Anson Shupe, an Indiana University professor who's written books about church abuse. "To me it says Protestants are less reluctant to come forward because they don't put their clergy on as high a pedestal as Catholics do with their priests."
" Archbishop Silvano Tomasi, the Vatican's permanent observer to the UN, defended its record by claiming that "available research" showed that only 1.5%-5% of Catholic clergy were involved in child sex abuse.
He also quoted statistics from the Christian Scientist Monitor newspaper to show that most US churches being hit by child sex abuse allegations were Protestant and that sexual abuse within Jewish communities was common.
He added that sexual abuse was far more likely to be committed by family members, babysitters, friends, relatives or neighbours, and male children were quite often guilty of sexual molestation of other children.
The statement said that rather than pedophilia, it would "be more correct" to speak of ephebophilia, a homosexual attraction to adolescent males.
"Of all priests involved in the abuses, 80 to 90% belong to this sexual orientation minority which is sexually engaged with adolescent boys between the ages of 11 and 17."
The statement concluded: "As the Catholic church has been busy cleaning its own house, it would be good if other institutions and authorities, where the major part of abuses are reported, could do the same and inform the media about it."
Occam's Tool| 4.2.11 @ 1:59AM
Dear Gary: what will be the impetus for reform of Islam? For Catholicism, it was clearly Protestantism. But where is the intra-faith critique of Islam that is both popular and humane?
IMKessel| 4.2.11 @ 2:02PM
As long as there are stones and Jews, someone will find a way to kill Jews.
Occam's Tool| 4.3.11 @ 1:42PM
The Egyptian elections showed that Religious Maniacs, rather than secular moderates, will be in power, just as I predicted (no great intelligence required, just a willingness to face uncomfortable facts). I expect bad things will happen.
To some of the more idiotic posters on this site: Islam resurgent is NOT a good thing for Catholicism.
weddingdresses | 6.24.11 @ 2:10AM
As long as there are stones and Jews, someone will find a way to kill Jews.
Creative Recreation | 8.10.11 @ 11:02PM
is good