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Sports Arena
My 2011 MLB Predictions
Going for all the ivy.
(Page 3 of 3)
The Cubs’ fortunes began to turn late in the 2010 season when they promoted third base coach Mike Quade their interim manager following Lou Piniella’s abrupt departure from the club in late August. I have been an admirer of Quade since 1993 when he managed the Ottawa Lynx (the Triple-A affiliate of the Montreal Expos). Quade’s low-key approach was a welcome contrast to Piniella’s volatile temper. The Cubs went 24-13 over the last six weeks of the season. Cubs’ management was sufficiently impressed with Quade’s stewardship to give him a two-year contract with a club option for 2013.
The Cubs have also made a number of off-season improvements. They have added ex-Tampa Bay Rays Carlos Pena and Matt Garza. Pena gives the Cubs some much needed left-handed power in the middle of the lineup. And don’t expect him to hit .196 in 2011. Meanwhile, Garza adds depth to a starting rotation that includes Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells. Garza and Zambrano are arguably the most intense pitchers in baseball. Once Quade took over, Zambrano was able to channel his intensity and did his best pitching of the season. I see Garza similarly thriving under Quade’s quiet leadership.
Meanwhile, the bullpen has added a familiar face in Kerry Wood, who will be closer Carlos Marmol’s eighth inning set up man. I also expect rebound years from Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez as well as a breakout season for Kosuke Fukudome. Look for both Tyler Colvin and Starlin Castro to avoid the sophomore jinx and for Marlon Byrd to have another solid season in centerfield. The returning Reed Johnson gives the Cubs additional depth in the outfield.
Now the Cubs aren’t exactly speed demons and more than a third of the roster is over the age of 30. But Quade is ideally suited for a veteran team that needs a manager who can stay at arm’s length and let them play. I have a feeling this is the Cubs team that will make history.
About the Author
Aaron Goldstein writes from Boston, Massachusetts.
Chalkdust| 3.30.11 @ 6:44AM
I don't think your AL East predictions are so outlandish. Picking the new-look Orioles to finish second ( I predict 91-92 wins ) is exactly where I put them.
CB| 3.30.11 @ 6:59AM
The Astros ?
The wild card team?
Carlos Lee as the MVP?
That must be some really good stuff that you are smoking......
Jeff R| 3.30.11 @ 7:43AM
The Astros win the wild card - I don't think so. The Phils win the NL East, agreed. But given the Braves' pitching, I think they're the favorites for the wild card.
Richard Baker| 3.30.11 @ 7:45AM
As a longtime Cardinals fan, I say the Cubs will swoon in June. Maybe it's Bill Veeck's ivy on the outfield walls at Wrigley which affects their minds and play, who knows. Go Cards!
Who Knows?| 3.30.11 @ 8:57AM
Ah, wilderness = baseball!
So you’re the guy who predicted Seattle would win it all, and instead they “lost it all”?
Remember Sparky Anderson, hall of fame manager?
I seem to recall a study of what difference a manager makes, and the conclusion was that they either don’t matter much, or not at all.
Given that a “great” baseball team loses “only” 40% of its games, and an average one 50%, it seems to me that of all the sports, this one with nine players of mostly equal ability on either side is the one that deserves the least real caring.
That is, unlike, say, the 49ers when Montana was teammates with very superior athletes selected by the “genius” Bill Walsh, when they were clearly the better “team”, in baseball---I hate to put it this way!---the playing field is REALLY level.
Besides, the other aspect of this sport is that it has been dominated by pitching. When success is 33% for a hitter, which means 67% success for a pitcher, essentially, well---the sport would be more engaging, IMHO, if there were a LOT more hitting and scoring.
Let’s face TIMELY facts.
Baseball is basically a slower-than-molasses-in January game, in contrast with basketball, which just overflows with action, second by second. A camera that only recorded the time between when a pitcher threw the ball and the end of each “live action” has shown that something is happening, what, for all of ten minutes. Maybe less, for a no hitter, eh?
Lucky me---I finally wised up and cancelled cable TV. Thus, this year, I won’t be tempted to fill my precious last years watching the Mariners, or any other team.
No more watching OTHER people playing, for me!
LiveFreeOrDie| 3.30.11 @ 12:52PM
I'm hastily composing this as I don't want to spend too much time on a baseball post so please forgive the poor writing and lack of detail. I gave up on MLB a few years ago for the following reasons. First, teams spend vastly different amounts of money for players. A team like NYY can drop 200 million a year while another team spends less than 20 million. I know, some people actually like this aspect of the game but I do not. MLB could learn something from the NFL in my opinion. Second, the strikes that mess with the season. Starting late or not at all etc. Greed on display from both sides has been disgusting. Lastly, Paul Tagliabue. When he called the '02 all star game a tie after the ninth inning for a myriad of mostly vaginal reasons... this was the final straw for me. It's amazing how that man single-handedly ruined baseball for so many. I've been able to find better things to do with my time and never looked back.
JohnD| 3.30.11 @ 2:38PM
Not Tagliabue, you mean Bud Selig. Tagliabue was an a-hole too, but he was the NFL's a-hole.
canuckistani| 3.30.11 @ 4:18PM
....so you are suggesting a salary cap to level the playing field?
The NFL is the most socialist of orgs, hard salary cap, staunch redistributionists and anti-trust protected.
I like baseball in that you can see billionaire owners whining about the Yankees' revenue streams. Boo hoo.
Solution: contraction.
jrp61356| 3.31.11 @ 12:19AM
"Second, the strikes that mess with the season. Starting late or not at all etc. Greed on display from both sides has been disgusting."
Perhaps you haven't been keeping up with recent developments in your cherished NFL, but they are looking at the very real possibility of not having a 2011-12 season because of differences between the league (i.e., the owners) and the players union. How does this differ from MLB's labor disputes of the past?
MacDaddy| 3.30.11 @ 9:30AM
Thank you for your kind prediction concerning my favorites, the Detroit Tigers. Also, it would be refreshing if some of the lesser-payroll teams like the A's and Orioles and Astros were to enjoy some good, old-fashioned success, to the chagrin and embarrassment of the big-money teams like the Yankees and Dodgers. Would that it be so that those teams, upon seeing their 'investment' not return success as they envision, that they would turn to the hard-work, scouting-and-developing team-building approach which other teams, by necessity, must use. Alas, what the top-tier teams would likely do is manically throw MORE free-agent dollars into the game. This would create MORE of a financial imbalance and financial strain on the game and on fans and lead to the inevitable: the death of 'free baseball' on TV as all games will, IMHO, soon become pay-per-view events.
Doctor Right| 3.30.11 @ 9:41AM
You must be a native of Baltimore (as I am) to be so optimistic about the Orioles chances.
I don't share your optimism; the Orioles will have another crap year. This once-proud franchise will never turn it around until the name "Angelos" is no longer associated with their operations.
I used to love baseball, but now I could not care less. The billion-dollar salaries, the resultant expensive tickets, the corporate sky-boxes, the yuppy food at the concession stands, the $7 cups of awful beer, the tax-financed stadiums, the cheating (steroids), the a-hole players, the pajama-esque uniforms (whatever happened to the genuine baseball sock, anyway?), PSLs, special cable channels to watch the games on TV, the non-smoking hysteria...Bleh.
I'm sure I sound like an old fart, but in a lot of ways, the OLD days were better. You could get decent tickets on game day for less than $10 each, and with parking and hot dogs, have fun at the ballpark with your kids for less than $40. $40 bucks won't even buy you a t-shirt at Yankee stadium anymore.
Pro sports has become a racket. Thank goodness for my High-Def TV, 'cuz I aint payin' for that nonsense
JohnD| 3.30.11 @ 9:47AM
As a Baltimore native also, I have hope for the first time in 13 years. The key will be their young starters (Matusz, Arrieta, Bergeson, Britton, et.al.). The young starters improved immensely when Showalter took over, like night and day.
My 10 year old son has never seen Baltimore have a winning baseball team. By the time I was his age, I had seen my Orioles compete in 4 World Series. I want him to experience a pennant race for the first time.
Aaron Goldstein| 3.30.11 @ 10:40AM
I have never set foot in Baltimore.
JohnD| 3.30.11 @ 11:47AM
OK, Aaron, then when are you coming to visit. Baltimore is a great city, especially in the summer, and especially when the Orioles are in town.
JohnD| 3.30.11 @ 2:43PM
Remember the great Baltimore Clippers' fight song?
"Go you Baltimore Clippers,
Go you Clippers, from Baltimore,
Go you Baltimore Clippers,
Face off - fight for a Baltimore score,
Defensemen, forwards, and Goalie,
we'll win without a doubt,
for Baltimore, and Maryland,
every Clippers fan will shout
FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!"
Baltimore has its problems, and I wouldn't live in the City (and I don't) but the Inner Harbor, Camden Yards, Fells Point, Mount Vernon, Hampden, are all nice. And old Baltimore still exists, you just have to leave the city and go to Arbutus, Essex, Catonsville, etc., to find it.
Doctor Right| 3.30.11 @ 5:25PM
I remember hearing the song at the Civic Center when I was a kid, but I don't remember the words!
I will say that I attended the very first BLAST game in '81.
And, I'm proud to have actually seen a game at Memorial Stadium when Brooks, Boog, Jim Palmer, Frank Robinson, Mark Belanger, Paul Blair, Bobby Grich, and Davey Johnson were all wearing Black & Orange at the same time.
I work in Manhattan and am naturally surrounded by Yankees fans and Yankees lore, so most people don't understand what that feels like. I'm guessing you do!
Chalkdust| 3.30.11 @ 6:20PM
Doctor Right you hit the nail on the head.
Aaron Goldstein| 3.30.11 @ 10:27PM
Well, the Red Sox do make frequent trips to Camden Yards.
DonBaltimore| 3.30.11 @ 6:46PM
Dear Doctor, I sadly agree with you on Angelos, until he changes his stripes or becomes room temperature, the Orioles chances are low for success. I would love to go to games again, but the thought of supporting Baltimore's version of Napoleon Bonaparte stops me. He has lots of money, but won't spend it on the farm system.
Joe R| 3.30.11 @ 10:31AM
Another year, another prediction of a World Series championship by a moron Cubs fan. Why did you even waste people's time with this prediction?
Ampleforth| 3.30.11 @ 10:43AM
Ah, yes. The Chicago Cubs sell more World Series tickets in April than any other month. I'm a Cardinals fan and always sing "See You in September" to Cubs fans.
There might be some symmetrical hope of history that might help the Chicago Cubs. In 1908, our nation was 103 years from challenging the Barbary Pirates in Tripoli. This year, we'll be 103 years from the Cubs' last World Series championship, and our nation is taking kinetic military action against Tripoli.
Maybe it IS the Cubs' year. If the Cubs win the Series, I might start to believe all the crazy stuff I read about the Mayan calendar and start to worry if the 12th Imam will crawl out of a well in Iran. I'll scan the skies for white horses and golden chariots full of flames.
Jim Woodward| 3.30.11 @ 12:03PM
The Orioles finishing 2nd in the AL East????
Y'all forget who still owns that team!
Hey, being a naitive of Baltimore, I think it would be sweet, but as long as Angelos is in charge, I don't think so.
Charles Kammermann| 3.30.11 @ 12:12PM
This guy is a moron. Except for the Phils, his picks are nonsense.
HC| 3.30.11 @ 12:55PM
I love my Astros, but they won't even have a sniff at the post season and Carlos Lee is the laziest starter in baseball.
james wilson| 3.30.11 @ 1:14PM
Thatsa lotta spaghetti against the wall.
Baltimore's pasta will stick to the floor. There is a reason Buck hasn't stuck.
Tampa Bay ain't going away. In the battle of the Hebrews, Teo will get Fried.
You can't get the Twins off that wall with a chisel.
Anybodies mess in the West.
It is plain the Cubs virus has eaten your brain, but no matter, the Central will be won in vain.
In the East Phillies are beasts; Braves are wild.
In the West Rockies are best, Giants are pests--after so many innings, arms are due for pinnings.
Humphry Dumfries | 3.31.11 @ 10:28AM
test
Cpm| 3.30.11 @ 1:36PM
This would be funny if it weren't so sad.
Humphry Dumfries | 3.31.11 @ 10:29AM
test
Joe D.| 3.30.11 @ 2:35PM
Just like your pick last year Seattle, the Cubs will not even make the playoffs. You are off your rocker. However, most everything else is interesting and plausable.
bob alou| 3.30.11 @ 9:39PM
agreed.
Buster| 3.30.11 @ 3:46PM
Dear Mr. Goldstein,
I am shocked, deeply shocked that you --a Bostonian--are unaware that the Red Sox will win the 2011 W****d S****s (note that I do not risk a jinx by using the words) in six versus the Phils.
f| 3.31.11 @ 10:28AM
test
Humphry Dumfries | 3.31.11 @ 10:24AM
test
Brian Mc| 3.30.11 @ 4:24PM
Ah, this orphaned O's fan stranded in Cubs country finally has hope that has been lacking for more years than I'd like to count right now.
P.S. I miss Section 34
DonBaltimore| 3.30.11 @ 6:53PM
THIS HAS BEEN FUN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ken (Old Texican)| 3.30.11 @ 8:25PM
Aaron,
I would rather watch a little league game.
PCP Smoker| 3.30.11 @ 8:36PM
The Twins THIRD in the division? Fuck you motherfucker. I hope you and your family die a miserable and painful death.
Frank| 3.31.11 @ 12:40AM
Tigers over the BoSox in the ALDS? Cubs win it all?
No drug testing at Am Spec, is there?
Mark| 3.31.11 @ 9:18AM
2011 WORLD SERIES – Best four out of seven
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs – Cubs in seven .... Is today April 1
Steve A| 3.31.11 @ 10:34AM
good riddance, thanks for playing
Steve A| 3.31.11 @ 10:33AM
good riddance. thanks for playing
Nelson H.| 3.31.11 @ 5:53PM
Cub prediction: bold, but not insane.
Astros and Orioles as wild cards: off your rocker.
Creative Recreation | 8.10.11 @ 11:13PM
is good
toolkien| 8.28.11 @ 2:02PM
Must have made these predictions standing on your head. Pretty much upside down.