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Political Hay
Jerry Brown’s Dilemma
How to get away with raising taxes and avoiding budget cuts?
At first it looked as if Jerry Brown had devised a no-fault way to cover California’s expected $26.6 billion deficit. He would ask the legislature to mount a special election in June so the voters could agree to a five-year extension of several taxes about to expire. If they didn’t, draconian program cuts would ensue, but they would know in advance what these would be (the usual suspects such as home health care for the indisposed; child welfare; education).
Special elections require approval of two-thirds of the legislature. This means he would need a few Republican votes. Most balked. They said the voters turned down tax increases on the 2008 ballot. Nevertheless, a few began to negotiate with the governor’s staff, thinking they could wring out of him a concession to reform the state’s wildly generous public employee pension scheme. This hasn’t happened and the deadline for a June ballot is fast approaching.
Brown has options, none of them quite what he wanted. He can get the Democratic majority in the legislature to use some fancy footwork to circumvent the two-thirds rule and activate the election without any Republican votes. This would probably face legal challenges and, thus, delays.
Alternatively, he can ask his organized labor friends to mount a signature drive to get an initiative proposal on the November ballot. They have the money and person-power to do it, but it also would give opponents six months in which to mount a campaign. Historically, California initiatives involving tax increases decline in support the closer they come to election day.
The Dems in the legislature claim they have already made about $14 billion worth of cuts in Brown’s proposed budget. No one has seen the fine print, so it’s impossible to know how many of these are bait to popularize the special election idea, how many are illusory, and how many are real. If all are in the last category, there would still need to be about $12 billion to be made up by way of voter approval in the special election.
Joining the muddied waters are two new statewide polls. The Field Poll reports that 56 percent of Californians favor extension of the taxes to avoid the big cuts. The Public Policy Institute of California, on the other hand, reports that only 46 percent of Californians favor it, down eight percent from January. Two polls can, of course, get different results depending upon how their questions are framed. Also, both polls in the past have sometimes oversampled Democrats.
Whichever route the issue takes, Brown hopes the voters will approve the tax extension and thus he could take the credit for “saving” all those programs, each of which has a large constituency. If they turn down the extension, all he needs to do is blame the Republicans for causing the deep cuts that would follow.
It’s all part the Democrats’ Grand Plan in action: Steadily increase the number of people dependent upon government largesse, then announce cuts if need be and watch the demonstrations begun until the cuts are rescinded and government grows yet again. One way or another, taxpayers will pay for all this. In California at least they regularly tell pollsters they want balanced budgets, but don’t want programs cut.
As the saying goes, go figure.
About the Author
Peter Hannaford was closely associated for a number of years with the late President Reagan, beginning in the California Governor’s office. His latest book is Presidential Retreats.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (52) | Leave a comment
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Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 3.25.11 @ 6:41AM
This article is typical Washingtonian. It views politics as a blame game.
I think the public wants results, not blame.
They won't see that in California or from inside the beltway.
Bob K.| 3.25.11 @ 9:01AM
Right on Bill!
Now if the people who run this magazine out of Washington DC would only realize that!
Occam's Tool| 3.27.11 @ 4:33PM
I left CA after Residency and the Riots. Southern California is expensive, and the people suck, as a general rule.
I had a friend who told me, "Be careful, Ock, California isn't really America. America is a backwards place compared to SoCal."
I said, "I certainly hope so."
(As for backwardness, I trained at UCLA. Mayo Clinic is light years ahead of UCLA in surgery. Information retrieval is also much better.)
Occam's Tool| 3.27.11 @ 4:39PM
There is an RCV waiver for the above statement about Californians. Also to my friends there who know who they are.
But the snooty waitresses, salespeople and general mellow asshattery does grate after a while.
Dee See| 3.25.11 @ 7:17AM
---Jerry Brown, in 2011 POST American California? ---They're joking right?
MEANWHILE the fallout particles from
Fukushima come raining down with the usual
cancer, sterility and alzheimer's inducing
Barium and Cadmium CHEM-trials
-themselves going into their 10th year.
Tim the Enchanter| 3.25.11 @ 12:39PM
Do you need a new tin-foil hat? I can make you one...
Lullabys, Legends and Lies| 3.25.11 @ 7:45AM
Keep looking the other way Governor Brown, the Black Hole Train of destruction to California is not here yet, it's only seconds away from the Station, but it's not here yet!! California doesn't have four more years to wait, for the "next" Governor, who might do something about their extreme problems, the time is now, and the Governor "is" Jerry Brown. Like it or not Governor Brown, you need to lead today, not to wait and blame it on the Republicans, there's no time to waste, playing stupid political games anymore. California is going to implode, and this guy's worried if people are still going to like him in the end. Here's the answer to that, the residents of California don't need a Friend, they need a Leader is Sacramento, so stop worrying about your popularity, and save the "once" Great State of California!! I don't hold out much hope for him though, to be that Leader they truly need, and I don't hold out much hope for California in general anymore, they will be the first State to fail, and that's a shame!! Keep voting the Democratic Party line California, it's really working out for you, in that post apocalyptic Detroit kind of way.
Shamus| 3.25.11 @ 8:57AM
The upside here is that labor will have to waste huge amounts of money backing higher taxes. It's a fight they can't win, as taxes can never be raised enough to satisfy the unions.
Brown can try to blame conservatives for the problems, but this is a hard sell, because leftists have been in control of the state for decades. And the clock keeps ticking. Bankruptcy is looming.
axbucxdu| 3.25.11 @ 9:27PM
"leftists have been in control for decades....Bankruptcy is looming."
The inevitable consequences of progressive philosophy laid bare. The prog's vacuous ideas are uneconomic, impractical. The empirical proof is everywhere.
Now, what is it that conservatives and libertarians are going to do about it, given that history has provided them an opportunity to eliminate something for nothingism once and for all, in its last remaining refuge, the US political system?
Not much, it'll fall to Mr. Market to do the heavy lifting.
Steve A| 3.25.11 @ 9:10AM
Will someone remind me again why I care about what happens in California?? It could break off the continent & float out to the Pacific for all I care. Yes, you can take Hollywood, all the tech & porn industry & Kobe Bryant along. Not bothered.
Harry the Horrible| 3.25.11 @ 9:46AM
Because its the seventh largest economy in the world? Because it pays a substantially more in federal taxes than it consumes?
Mind you, I wouldn't miss Hollyweird or the porn industry and the tech industry could move... problem is, I think it would move outside the US.
But it would certainly be welcome here in Georgia!
Steve A| 3.25.11 @ 11:00AM
Harry, Sorry, keep the tax $$. Still don't care.
buckeyeman| 3.25.11 @ 12:06PM
I would miss the porn industry.
Hung Right| 3.25.11 @ 10:44PM
I would miss my great job acting in the porn industry.
And, would also miss reading my favorite magazine, in between takes.
Occam's Tool| 3.27.11 @ 4:38PM
I'm sure the porn industry would just move to Toronto, like all American film is doing. ;)
emo| 3.28.11 @ 5:50PM
No one is paying more in federal taxes than it consumes anymore, maybe CT.
RCV| 3.25.11 @ 12:52PM
Don't you care what happens to me, Steve?
Steve A| 3.25.11 @ 1:33PM
Once again, I find myself with the need to extend an RCV waiver. Kinda like the ones Obama hands out for Obamacare:)
Of course, I am not completely serious with my comments. I would like to see California forced to admit that the liberal track is a financial disaster. Many quality people in CA, including our own RCV.
RCV| 3.25.11 @ 2:31PM
Thanks, Steve. Next time you try to cross the border into the Golden State, I'll be your liberal sponsor. :D Be well!
Occam's Tool| 3.27.11 @ 4:35PM
Yes, I do. Move to St Paul, RCV. Lots of Liberals there, and the bookstores are better than in LA, and easier to get to.
RCV| 3.27.11 @ 10:20PM
Despite the lure of Garrison Keillor, Occam, I think I'll stay contented in Southern California. Great weather, wonderful creative talented and tolerant neighbors, unparalleled opportunities for cultural and recreational activities all year long. I'll fly in for the Ice Festival and to visit friends, who actually live in Fargo. Thanks for the invite, tho!
Ruebacca| 3.26.11 @ 9:38AM
Because our over paid bureaucrats retire in your state and your welfare population moves to California every day.
ncatty| 3.25.11 @ 10:02AM
Federalism means the 50 States are laboratories for political theories. The more clear cut the differences, the more to be learned from the results. Let the blue get bluer and the red get redder, and we judge the results.
HL| 3.25.11 @ 10:21AM
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
Thanks for Barbara Boxer, Diane Feinstein, Pete Stark, Henry Waxman, the disgusting city of San Francisco and for invading neighboring states with you and your stupid ideas after it finally occurs to you that California is really screwed up for some mysterious reason. Good and really hard.
Gr0w1er| 3.25.11 @ 11:17PM
Don't forget about that paragon of social conscience as well as a shining example of Democrat purity named Maxine Waters!!
cowgirl| 3.25.11 @ 10:25AM
I am a native San Francisco Bay Arean who has resided in the Stupid State most of my life. The only way out - let it fail. Please - no one intervene or try to help. LET IT FAIL.
Steve A| 3.25.11 @ 10:59AM
Agree. Liberalism taken to the end of the line on full display.
The Woz| 3.25.11 @ 11:32AM
California is "too big to fail". And we all know what that means....
Petronius| 3.25.11 @ 10:32AM
Browns dilemma? he's the left channel of the stereo pair of Our dilemma: the other being that nihilistic man child at the top of the political food chain. Most all of California's conservatives decamped long ago leaving us with another border to seal off if only we could. The result is that Californication keeps advancing on the rest of us.
Who Knows?| 3.25.11 @ 11:14AM
California, here I come---NOT!!!!!!
Dave | 3.25.11 @ 11:21AM
The question this column asks is "how can Brown get away with asking the voters of California for more tax increases?" Well, the answer comes in the form of a rhetorical question: "Who do you think re-elected this clown for a 3rd term?
(tick-tick-tick) ...
As one who'll be exiting this unionized cesspool soon, I can tell you that the patient is already dead. The undertaker just hasn't been called ... yet.
(sniff) What's that smell?
LiveFreeOrDie| 3.25.11 @ 11:34AM
Jerry Brown shows up to save the day. His solution? The same thing that was tried (and failed miserably) right before he took office. Let's put tax increases on the ballot and see if the voters will tax themselves. They'll kick it off with a media campaign with all the typical lies. Less police, less firemen, little old ladies are going to starve to death in the streets and for God's sake, what about the children?! The children!!! If you don't vote for increased taxes you must hate children!
What a great plan! Jerry Brown doesn't get it. This plan is a total failure and a bad idea, just like Jerry Brown. Please Jerry, go back to your irrelevant existence. We've grown tired of being threatened and scared out of our hard-earned money. Enough people have finally realized that forever increasing taxes never seems to balance the budget while services from the state get worse. Why pay for another special ballot measure? It will fail miserably, again, just like Jerry Brown.
Steve A| 3.25.11 @ 11:54AM
Will the last business to leave California please turn off the lights.
Tim the Enchanter| 3.25.11 @ 12:42PM
Hey! I was just going to post that!
Kreinke Weibchen| 3.25.11 @ 12:32PM
Is it too late to give California back to Mexico?
Ruebacca| 3.26.11 @ 9:40AM
That is happening as we speak.
William Wallace| 3.25.11 @ 1:00PM
When Kahleefornia implodes, the left will try to pin the blame on Republicans because Ahnold was a "Republican." Never mind that he doesn't have a conservative bone in his body. He's a big fat RINO. But that won't matter since he got elected with an (R) after his name.
Gov. Moonbeam and the rest of the fruits and nuts will project their failure onto Republicans.
CalMark| 3.25.11 @ 1:25PM
Amazing, isn't it?
My blood is boiling after reading this piece. Once again, the "conservative" punditocracy surrenders to irrational, incoherent Conventional Wisdom.
The Democrats overwhelmingly control everything in California, but according to Conventional Wisdom, their mess is a political win-win. Fix the mess, get credit; can't fix it, Republicans (a small minority) take the fall. Pundits like Hannaford here abet this dishonesty.
Hey, Elite Infallible Pundit/Politician Class: take a page from us unwashed plebeians out here: show some guts. (Novel concept for Republicans.) Stand up for yourselves, for a change.
In other words, DON'T LET the Democrats blame Republicans. Fight back, hard, with the truth. Repeat, over and over, "Democrats control everything in California. They've made a huge mess and their solution is to steal more of your hard-earned money. Democrats are bad for California and America. "
Simple. But it might stop Hannaford & Co. from getting invited to the cocktail parties. (Can't have that.) Passive acquiescence to slander, thy name is Republican. Or in this case, "Hannaford."
wolflen| 3.25.11 @ 1:45PM
the fact that brown, boxer won elections tells us that taxes will be our best friend for far into the future...many parts of the state have a sales tax of 10% - and climbing - my city of santa monica just voted itself a sales tax increase-of course it was for the children-schools..and another tax is expected to balance the financial mess that is waiting next year..thing about taxes out here is.."ya just can eat one"...they grow on trees...if the country can have a national debt of 14+ trillion...why cant california...raise prices on every thing to fund the fun..so to speak..gas prices of 4.50+ not to worry...food prices up 27% - calm down..will california vote for more tax..of course..will it balance the budget..of course not..we cant support california & mexico at the same time and that is much of the problem that will never enter the solution..we will never have a "real" balanced budget just as the feds we will never pay the national debt..
Redstateboy| 3.25.11 @ 4:47PM
"It's all part the Democrats' Grand Plan in action: Steadily increase the number of people dependent upon government largesse, then announce cuts if need be and watch the demonstrations begun until the cuts are rescinded and government grows yet
again."
This is it all in a Nutshell - as distinctly stated as I've ever seen it - Bravo! And I would defy any Slave Party member to try and argue this differently - that's what SS was, Medicaid and Medicare, Welfare, HusseinCare.. you name it... it's get em' addicted to the Nanny State and there by gurantee Slave Party Hegemony in to the future.
Gold BC| 3.25.11 @ 6:04PM
The citizens of the Golden State have elected the right man for the job ahead. Timing is everything, Jerry Brown will take the next and last step and lead his state into total economic ruin. He began the process and now he has the task to finish the job.
Pat| 3.25.11 @ 7:08PM
As a Californian, rest assured we take this budget deficit thingy seriously. But we aren’t going to allow any off-shore oil drilling, sell off big pieces of the state’s many natural wonders or ask the Chinese to give us a second mortgage on DisneyLand as a way to raise money.
We’ll do what we always do when politicians mess up our finances, we’ll elect an actor to replace the current governor and vote for 5 or 10 ballot Propositions which will increase our existing debt. Charlie Sheen could be our next governor of Southern California – and that’s after we split the state in two. Creating the new states of North California and South California has been a popular groundswell issue for many years with voters throughout California. Those no-good &$@** southern Californians have been trying to steal more and more water from northern California for decades now, filling up their swimming pools with our precious snow melt – northerners have had it with the Hollywood crowd.
Southern Californians think the Marin County and San Francisco folks should pack it off to Canada as they constantly threaten to do if not given their way. But Canada has asked us not to allow anymore Tommy Bahama illegals from the Bay Area to scale their border walls. Canadians have had it with finding shivering Californians hiding out in their barns with only a meager supply of no-whip lattes and organic tomatoes to sustain them. “We keep catching Californians wandering around Alberta and Manitoba searching for a Starbucks, we promptly send them home and they just sneak back over our borders – our cows don’t like Californians and we don’t like em’ either, eh”. Well that’s just too bad, but northern Californians refuse to move to L. A.
And after we divide the state in two, Northern California is threatening to secede from the Union. We will then model our finances on another great country just over our border and print our own Sunshine-bucks in 50, 100 and 500 S-buck denominations backed by C-Bills which we will issue and sell to China and Japan, plus any other country who wants to purchase them. When the C-Bills come up for redemption, we’ll simply issue more – this refinancing without the money to sustain it is easy, we’ve watched the United States do it for years, so how hard can it be?
And many Americans may be thinking “good riddance, we don’t need you” but we don’t care what you think - if you want to leave your heart in San Francisco or ski in Tahoe, you’ll need a valid passport to cross our border, so ha-ha. Oh yeah, bring lots of money when you come to visit or perhaps we’ll vote to rejoin the Union.
Ruebacca| 3.26.11 @ 9:52AM
An independent California could not afford it's gold plated bureaucracy and it's gold plated welfare system. Lose the federal funding we get from our 50+ congressmen and California implodes.
The Bruce| 3.26.11 @ 1:40AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related
Blacque Jacques Shellacque| 3.26.11 @ 1:47AM
Nevertheless, a few began to negotiate with the governor's staff,...
Challenges should be mounted against these cretins on the next election cycle.
sundesy| 3.26.11 @ 2:22AM
Californians are taxed to the hilt, economy is sour, job prospects dim and housing is expensive. You cannot just hang around for the weather. Look at the industries that have left CA, banking, defense and manufacturing. Bio-tech never took off. Clean energy is a mirage. Like our Compadres, we just have to down a shot of Tequila and drown in sorrow.
Ruebacca| 3.26.11 @ 10:04AM
Californian democrats and state bureaucracy will suck-out every last bit of wealth out of the state. Businesses leaving mean republicans leaving. Fat welfare benefits means democrats staying. Democratic Utopia is here and now.
Richard Baker| 3.27.11 @ 9:27AM
Peter Hannaford :
"person-power?" Are you infected with the PC bug? Otherwise, I agree with your column.
Michael L. Hauschild| 3.27.11 @ 10:39PM
Our local loony tune democrat just came back from a Washington junket. Now I am not making this up, he wanted the Congress to impose a ten cent per roll tax on toilet paper. I repeat, I am not making this up.
mjfin| 3.28.11 @ 2:29PM
Peter:
" . . . organized labor . . . . have the . . . person-power to . . . . . ."
Piece of advice:
In the future, don't use the phrase "person-power". Only people on the wrong side of all political issues use 1980's politically correct crap progressive language like that.
naksuthin| 5.18.11 @ 12:37PM
According the the Budget Department the new deficit is $9.6 billion, down from the $15.4 billion shortfall the state faced following the Legislature's actions in March to cut into what started as a $25.4 billion deficit in January. The governor wants to include a $1.2 billion reserve as well
Creative Recreation | 8.10.11 @ 11:27PM
is good