The American Spectator : Raymond Davis Held Hostage

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Raymond Davis Held Hostage

By George H. Wittman on 3.11.11 @ 6:07AM

The reasons for Pakistan's power plays against the U.S.

It was bound to happen. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had been embarrassed far too often by the Americans. At least that's the way the ISI saw it. American drones had killed many Taliban fighters in North Waziristan, but also many civilians. This was after the Pakistan Army -- at ISI's insistence -- had promised the Haqqani network headquartered in that region that there would be no further attacks. And this wasn't the first time the U.S. had put Pakistan in a difficult position.

To make matters worse the CIA had begun to run unilateral operations against Pakistan Islamist groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba that had had a principal role in the Mumbai, India attack. This was an operational step too far for ISI and Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, who as Chief of Army Staff now heads the entire Pakistan Army. Considered pro-American he previously commanded ISI and was deemed very close to the CIA in the past. American actions perceived as undercutting Pakistan sovereignty ultimately therefore became a public insult to Kayani.

The shooting and killing of two apparent robbers by the CIA-contracted, former Special Forces soldier Raymond Davis, and his subsequent arrest, forced to the surface the long simmering disagreements that had grown between the Pakistan and American intelligence agencies. The General Directorate of the ISI could have quickly intervened but chose not to do so. A weak explanation was offered along the lines that the killings were a local police and judicial matter in Lahore. Anyhow, the Pakistani government said, Davis's diplomatic immunity was questionable.

Certain factors must be recognized in order to gain some perspective on this seemingly complex but actually simple operational issue. The ISI is not merely a military intelligence agency. ISI overall is the single most powerful political instrument in Pakistan. It is indeed controlled by the military, but it operates in all phases of internal and external security, civilian and military. This fact is not particularly secret, it's just not talked about very much -- and for good reason.

Pakistan's strategic command structure is based primarily on defense against possible aggression from India. For that reason it has been held that it was essential that internal and external intelligence always should be coordinated in a manner that provides an interlocking capability to combat and counteract anything that would tend to support efforts to weaken Pakistan's defense against India's perceived aim to control and even conquer its neighbor.

CIA unilateral covert activities in Pakistan in areas of mutual interest would be directly counter to the usual host nation agreements. Nonetheless, ISI, as an experienced intelligence organization, would long have known there were covert American activities in progress even though they might not have known the exact nature of the operations. That the Americans after the Mumbai attack had insisted on launching their own activities relative to Pakistani radical groups was not only an affront to ISI but in direct contravention of existing operational accords.

The American argument for covert U.S. intelligence against Pakistani nationals was dramatically justified when clear evidence was uncovered of Pakistani Islamist operations in process to kill key members of the local CIA station. The matter was serious and credible enough for an emergency project to be activated to provide ops officers with armed team protection. Abruptly the station chief, the principal target, was pulled out of the country.

Raymond Davis's situation now has become part of the behind-the-scenes conflict between Pakistan and the United States in general and ISI and CIA specifically. The billions of dollars that the U.S. Government spends in and makes available to Pakistan would appear to be adequate leverage to allow Washington to exert its will whenever it was really necessary. Unfortunately that's not true.

To begin with, China's relationship with ISI -- and thus Pakistan -- clearly has grown in recent years. The Chinese always had a special friendship reaching back to the days when the USSR was India's principal backer and China supported a competitive balance with Pakistan. On top of this enhanced level of Sino-Pakistani diplomatic amity is the contemporary effort of the United States to press forward with improved relations with India. Raymond Davis has become a pawn in the complicated game of American/South Asia relations.

Leon Panetta, Director of the CIA, has been in contact with the current head of ISI, Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha. Both men reportedly "niced" each other in their well-practiced manners, but Davis as of this writing remains in jail. General Kayani now effectively is the true power broker in Pakistan with scores of nuclear weapons in his armory and the ability to create a military coup whenever he desires.

Kayani is said to want a substantial alteration of U.S.-Pakistan relations. The price is not yet clear, but complete cessation of American unilateral intelligence operations within Pakistan against Pakistanis, no matter the stripe, undoubtedly is part of it. Until the final figure is agreed upon and put into effect, Raymond Davis and other contested issues, such as joint anti-Taliban operations, will remain hostage -- and so will the ISAF supply line into Afghanistan.

About the Author

George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (21) | Leave a comment

Alan Brooks| 3.11.11 @ 8:42AM

"The shooting and killing of two apparent robbers."

Perhaps robber-spies?
perhaps robber-spy-murderers?
In a 3rd world cesspool, you never know.

John| 3.11.11 @ 10:03AM

You can describe Raymond Davies as being many things but a diplomat is not one of them. The drones are murdering scores of innocent pakistanis
In the tribal belt. It now appears pakistanis are not safe even in the cities from gun ho American mercenaries . This will not end well.

Husarz| 3.11.11 @ 1:43PM

Dear John,
1. Diplomatic immunity extends to embassy personnel other than diplomats;
2. The enemy - that's the Taliban - has long used human shields. I am certain that all reasonable precautions are taken to ensure the drones hit no one other than the intended target, but wars do have unintended consequences.
3. What would you have Mr. Davies do when set upon by "bandits" - meekly allow them to kill him? Gun (sic) ho American mercenaries - twaddle, sir, classic twaddle!
This will probably not end well for Mr. Davies, who will presumably pay the price for the current administration's fumbling diplomacy.

John| 3.11.11 @ 6:07PM

There is absolutely no proof that Davies was a Bon fide diplomat. Obama saying so doesn't make it so. Davies was having secret meetings in a seedy hotel carrying weapons which were not registered. regarding the two men shot we still don't know the full story. But we do know that the rescue mission involved running over many pedestrians and killing at least one. All this has rightly caused outrage in Pakistan. A foreign power running amok with complete and utter arrogance. America will have a chance this month to prove Davies 's diplomatic immunity which they have failed to do so far. But the damage has been done.

The One Who Runs Like a Duck| 3.11.11 @ 9:52PM

WTF, John. You are the man. Blaming America first takes some talent in Pakistan. They never seem to solve those machine gunning Christian church cases but they are all over this one. You have some real troll talent if you are interested in a job. Military tribunals are a thing of the past, baby.

Juster| 3.11.11 @ 11:19AM

With all due respect, I hereby sentence Mr. Davis to 86 years in prison

Bill| 3.11.11 @ 2:25PM

All I can say is that whoever did the shooting fired a heck of a group at a moving target with a handgun. Damn good shooting!

davelnaf| 3.11.11 @ 2:41PM

Someone with even a slight acquaintance with what happens when Americans deal with half-baked countries like Pakistan knows that something like this was bound to happen. Pakistan tries to get as much as it can from the US and sometimes their primary motivation is just the pleasure of gaming Americans and the US. Even ex-Pats on Bagram could see this happening with the crap coming in from Pakistan for which that country’s ‘business community’ frequently over-billed the US government. We’ve played along with Pakistan for far too long. There is a reason why Al Qaeda is in that country and it isn’t because the Pakistanis can’t do something about it.

David Schwartz| 3.11.11 @ 5:18PM

A very thoughtful and helpful piece.

Notwithstanding my view that Davis is (a) probably not legally entitled to immunity for grave crimes and (b) probably guilty of at least 2nd degree murder, your point is still very well taken.

Under other political circumstances (internal and external to Pakistan) this class of criminality might well have been quickly papered over. So, in that sense Davis can clearly be viewed as a pawn (albeit a guilty one) in a game that is much larger and more complex than the mere legal/factual issues related to his criminal acts.

Another way of framing this issue is to ask, what are the limits of American imperialism? To what extent can this country act as a law unto itself within the borders of another (supposedly) sovereign state? The Davis situation and the other factors that you identify certainly focus our attention on that question.

Interested conservative| 3.12.11 @ 9:21AM

Wow DS. That is a speedy trial and largely fact free conviction in two paragraphs, and a typically misleading characterization of geopolitics in the third.

I'm sure Emperor Obama the First approves!

IKRAM PAK| 3.11.11 @ 11:51PM

Learn to spell Kiyani. Raymond Davis, is a murderer who was in illegal possession of a weapon. You Americans have a habbit of degrading and threatening Pakistan. We dont want your moneys. We dont like you, and we want you gone. Remember Dr. Aafia, Mir Aimal Kansi? Remember Faisal Shehzad? Now its our turn.

Jordan179| 3.12.11 @ 9:41PM

We do have an alternative to targeted killing of Pakistani Al Qaeda operatives in Pakistan. Given that Pakistan is sheltering Al Qaeda, that alternative is to declare war on Pakistan and proceed to ream your cesspool of a country from end to end. Afterward, we should turn the job of occupation over to the Indians, your natural lords and masters. Like the idea?

No? Then DRIVE AL QAEDA OUT YOURSELVES.

Remember, Paks, in two more years we'll have a real President again. Play your games now -- tomorrow, you'll be crying as a major victory of the medieval jihad is reversed, and you lose your country.

Bill| 3.14.11 @ 9:30AM

Back when the Pakistanis were leaders among those who among the U.N. troops at the Mogadishu stadium who wanted to take armor out into the city to protect the U.S. Delta and Ranger troops who were having big trouble holding their own, many of us liked Pakistanis. Now that Pakistanis have apparently cast their sympathies with Osama bin Laden, we don't like y'all nearly as much as we once did.

Richard Baker| 3.12.11 @ 8:38AM

IKRAM PAK:
As an American, I wish we had nothing to do with your illiterate country. Go have that war over Kashmir so you and India can nuke each other. Reduce the Earth's population and be rid of you both. Of course, your hatred of India has nothing whatever to do with Pakistan being Moslem or that Mr. Jinna hated the Hindus.

John| 3.12.11 @ 10:50AM

There is not a shred of evidence that Davies was a diplomat before this incidence . America has added his name to the diplomatic staff list after the event. If his diplomatic immunity is not proven then he will have to stand trial. There is a case to answer. what this incidence has brought to end is thr use of foreign mercenaries in Pakistan . No doubt pakistans ruling elite are incompetent and corrupt to the nth degree. But Pakistan wad treated as football during the cold war which just made a bad situation worse. Remember Pakistan was in NATO at one point.