TAMPA — Considering the overall importance in 2012 of getting
Barack Obama back to attempting to organize a community smaller
than the United States, you’d think national Republicans would want
to keep their eyes on this ball to the exclusion of all else. But,
maybe not.
There’s appears to be a counterproductive and pointless
intramural squabble brewing between the Republican National
Committee and one of the biggest and most important Republican
states over who’s on first.
The whole business is reminiscent of the National
Republican Senatorial Committee’s 2009 attempt to choose Florida’s
U.S. Senate candidate. After conservative Republican Marco Rubio
announced for the office, the NRCS showered kisses and money all
over liberal Florida governor Charlie Crist, then the Democrats’
favorite Republican. Crist didn’t even remain a Republican through
to the election, which Rubio won by 20 points. Learning nothing
from this sorry episode, the RNC now wishes to determine when
Florida may have its presidential primary.
The Florida Legislature has set the date of the 2012
Florida Presidential primary at January 31. The RNC has taken the
eccentric position that the heavens will fall if any state save the
favored precincts of New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, and
Nevada let their presidential preferences be officially known
before the first Tuesday in March. RNC Officials say this is so
important they have agreed with the Democratic National Committee
to penalize states who attempt to cut the line. The reaction of
most Florida Republicans to this is, “Huh? Get outta
town!”
It would take a wilier political analyst than I’ve ever
encountered to figure out a way a Republican could win the White
House in 2012 without Florida’s 29 electoral votes (buffed up from
an already hefty 27 before the 2010 census). Not only this, but
Tampa will host the 2012 Republican convention, the principal
purpose of which is to give the Republican presidential ticket a
big national send-off.
So why is the RNC threatening to diss its convention hosts
and help the media generate all manner of negative stories by
threatening to penalize Florida convention delegates if Florida has
its presidential primary earlier that the RNC considers seemly? The
folks there don’t really want to say.
So far the RNC has been doggedly taciturn on this subject.
When I asked why it’s so important that four small states that are
hardly representative of the nation should be guaranteed spots at
the top of the primary lineup, I received two and a half pages of
the RNC rules on this subject in impenetrable lawyerese. RNC
spokesman Kirsten Kukowski — a pleasant young woman who’s only
saying what her bosses tell her to — gave me press release
language about “preserving tradition” and “the integrity of the
process” so general, so uninformative, and so narcoleptic that not
only did I know no more after hearing her, I purposely made sure
not to drive or operate heavy equipment for the rest of the day.
It’s really tough defending the indefensible (whatever the RNC is
paying Kirsten, it’s not enough).
I told her I’d like to know how the integrity of the
voting process is put off if Republicans in Tampa, Jacksonville,
and Orlando have their presidential say before those in Las Vegas,
Reno, and Winnemucca. I also pointed out that Nevada only joined
the early-bird states in 2008, with South Carolina and Iowa not
that much earlier. So the “tradition” the RNC is hamstringing
Florida with is hardly a venerable one. But she would say no
more.
I also asked Kirsten to be added to the queue to speak
with RNC Chairman Reince Priebus on this matter. But she said she
didn’t like my chances of getting through to him, and in any case
he wouldn’t say any more on this subject than she just had. So
there it is. In the presence of this kind of stonewalling I can
only conclude that there is a very flimsy reason to go to the wall
for the favored four, or, more likely, there’s no reason, it’s just
a policy.
And it’s a policy Florida Republicans don’t fancy. Florida
has always been great fundraising territory for national Republican
candidates, but until 2008 when the Florida Legislature moved the
presidential primary to January, and lost convention delegates for
doing so, Florida Republicans could only say who they wished to
carry their banner after a nominee had been pretty much settled on.
They’d like to have a say in the process somewhere commensurate
with the importance of the nation’s fourth largest state (soon to
be third), and a very representative one, which contains every
national demographic. A candidate who can win in Florida can win
nationally. What better testing ground?
It’s too soon to say if this one will be quickly resolved
or will fester into a target-rich environment for left-stream media
stories and commentary. “How can we trust the Republicans to run
the country — they can’t even run themselves.”
Florida State Senate President Mike Haridopolos
(R-Melbourne) told me Friday he’s optimistic that Florida and the
RNC can come to an understanding, but says “Florida should go
earlier” than it has in the past. He says he’s not opposed to the
favored four voting before Florida, but does not want to be deeper
into the process than fifth. “Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida are
bellwether states,” He said. “But Florida is the richest nugget of
the three by far. So it makes sense for Florida to go earlier, for
candidates to spend more of their time here. There should be no
threats here either way. We’re going to work with our friends in
the party.”
Katie Betta, a spokesman for Florida House Speaker Dean
Canon (R-Winter Park), says Canon is “not bound to the current
date,” but “doesn’t see the date moving much or at all.” She says
Canon is “not inclined to cast a vote that would make Florida less
important in the primary process.”
Other Republicans I talked with about this issue, many of
whom didn’t wish to be quoted by name, were less diplomatic. “It’s
our grass-roots Republicans who will be hurt the most” if Florida
has to wait as long to vote as the RNC wants, a high-ranking
Republican official said to me. “Why are we even having this
issue?” a Republican political consultant asked. Another
characterized the RNC position as “empty threats.” The easily
distilled message here is: “Florida is big, diverse, and important,
and we’re not going to wait our turn anymore.”
Stay tuned. Most Republicans hope this issue will resolve
like the morning dew well before the convention. Right now the most
reasonable course would be for the RNC to accommodate a state
Republicans must win in 2012 to recapture the White House.
President Obama inserted himself early into Wisconsin’s budget
battle on the side of the unions, but backed out when he realized
it wasn’t good politics to stick his nose into state business. Is
there reason to hope that the folks at the RNC are at least as
politically nimble as our rookie President?
