Another Perspective
What Makes Jordan and Bahrain Different
For the U.S. the stakes are enormous.
With regimes collapsing throughout the Middle East, many Washington experts wonder if two U.S.-aligned monarchies, Bahrain and Jordan, might be the next possible candidates for the type of regime change seen of late in Tunisia and Egypt. In recent weeks, thousands have demonstrated in Bahrain in favor of overthrowing the monarchy after security forces killed several protesters calling for constitutional reforms and investigations into government corruption and human rights abuses. In Jordan, meanwhile, demonstrations against rising food prices and rampant unemployment quickly transformed into pro-democracy rallies, rocking the Hashemite Kingdom to its core.
The stakes for the U.S. are enormous. The overthrow of either regime would threaten American interests and further destabilize the already-volatile region. Bahrain’s strategic position in the Persian Gulf, through which approximately a fifth of the world’s oil exports pass, as well as its role as host to the U.S. Fifth Fleet (which helps protect that oil), makes its continued alliance with the U.S. crucial to American energy security. As for Jordan, its long border with Iraq, which will likely host American troops for many more years, and its peace treaty with Israel, makes the country an important strategic partner for America.
The good news is that the Bahraini and Jordanian regimes are less susceptible to overthrow than those in Tunisia, Egypt and even Libya. The reason has everything to do with identity; whereas the soldiers of the those countries hailed from the same ethno-religious group as the protesters, the Bahraini and Jordanian militaries are manned by ruling minorities less sympathetic to the plight of a disenfranchised majority.
This difference goes to the core of why revolutionary groups succeed or fail. If a revolutionary group lacks a guerrilla army capable of overpowering the government’s military, their efforts can only succeed if there are mass defections from the armed forces. Because none of the revolutionary movements that have recently surfaced in the Middle East possess a guerrilla army, the extent of their success has corresponded to the scale of the military defections to their cause. In instances where the entire military leadership defected, as was the case in Tunisia and Egypt, the ruler had to resign almost immediately. On the other hand, in Libya, where only part of the military defected, a civil war erupted and the fate of the Gaddafi regime is still unclear as of this writing.
The Tunisian, Egyptian, and Libyan soldiers who refused to suppress anti-regime demonstrations did so in part because they identified with the protesters and had qualms about shooting their fellow countrymen. In each case, the soldiers and demonstrators came from the same ethno-religious group. By contrast, Bahrain’s Sunni minority, which comprises about 30 percent of the nation’s population (including the monarch and most military personnel), lords over a large Shi’ite majority. Similarly, Jordan’s monarchy and military are dominated by members of Jordan’s East Bank tribes, which represent only a third of the country’s population; largely disenfranchised Palestinians make up the rest.
Not only do Bahrain and Jordan’s soldiers not come from the same families as the demonstrators, their families actually stand to lose their privileged status if the demonstrators achieve their aims. And, since a Shi’ite-dominated Bahraini government is unlikely to trust a predominantly Sunni military to defend it, that government can be expected to alter the religious balance of the military so that it more accurately reflects the country’s religious make-up — providing a powerful disincentive for the country’s current crop of military leaders to contemplate abandoning their posts. Majority rule in Jordan would similarly end the East Bank tribes’ control over their country’s economy and military, a development the armed forces are not eager to contemplate.
History teaches that few minority-run regimes accept democratization peacefully, and the Middle Eastern record is especially blood-soaked. Following the 1991 Gulf War, revolutionaries from Iraq’s Shi’ite majority sought to oust Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-backed dictatorship. At the revolt’s height, Saddam controlled only four of Iraq’s 18 provinces and most pundits assumed that his Ba’athist regime would soon collapse. But recognizing the threat the Shi’ite rebellion posed to Sunni interests, the largely Sunni Republican Guard mercilessly quashed the insurgency with helicopter gunships and tanks, killing tens of thousands of Shi’ite civilians in the process. Similarly, when Yasser Arafat’s PLO attempted to depose Jordan’s King Hussein in 1970-71, the Jordanian military killed thousands of Palestinians and expelled the PLO from the country.
The lesson remains true today. As long as Bahrain’s Sunnis and Jordan’s East Bankers continue to oppose majority rule, few soldiers are likely to defect to the opposition. As a result, a future struggle for majority rule in Manama and Amman might end up looking a lot more like Iraq in 1991 or Jordan in 1970-71 than Tunisia, Egypt or Libya circa 2011.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (11) | Leave a comment
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Ret. Marine| 3.7.11 @ 7:38AM
There is the weakness in the armour of the agitator-n-thief guided by his revolutionaries, ayers, dhorn and various other leaders of the unions, did not seem to contemplate or anticipate. They think just because they help out in the formation of other revolutionaries, i.e. the other Nation States under muslim control be it sunni or shiite's, they could spark the fire needed to over throw customs, tribal and norms of their way of life. It never ceases to amaze me how these anti-American haters in their arrogance, try to execute their plans, never looking past their noses, do not recognize the obvious. The plan of attack they brought forward only brings out the misdeeds, actions and direct links leading back to them and then they continue with the meme of their intentions. Some where I read about this type of activity where we are now witnessing, the anti-American thugs in action trying to spark a world war out of their thin cloth of intentions, I am pretty sure it has something to do with sedition, exporting their wares of discontent upon other Nations or something of this nature. Now only if we had a legal Justice Dept we might well get into a legal investigation between this poser calling himself the president and his minions, labor union leadership and the unrepentant domestic terrorists among his crowd. Good Lord I do pray on a daily basis the adults return to the Republican way of law and order. I suspect this whole dilemma will start a massive uprising here in these United States. I see this eruption of civil disobedience as part of a plan to bring about chaos as a "false flag operation" coming right from the top in the executive branch. He must be held to account, he is not above the laws of this Country. Could this be the introduction of the fundamental transformation this pretender-n-thief was talking about? We here daily from this poser about his enemies through his DHS. We hear daily how OUR Democracy is better with these voices of discontent and it's effects upon the world over. We hear nothing about the actual threat to this Republic, which is him the poser calling himself the president. Yeah we are stupid alright, at least about 53% of them voting for this fraud were. I find it extremely interesting the author of this article never once pointed out the cause of all of this unrest and who started it. What say you?
John| 3.7.11 @ 9:44AM
The author makes an interesting anLysis but one that is ultimately wrong. Arabs want to move beyond sunni/Shia categorisations . They want representative governments . they want more freedoms and an end to occupying blood sucking foreign armies. the genie is out of the bottle. To retain influence in this region America must realign itself with the wishes of the Arab street. in case you are under any illusions the gulf kingdoms are unversally hated by the arab people. This hate extends to those who support these tyrannies. I ask each one of you to lobby your member of congress to support the Arab revutions and make plans to remove American occupying forces, bases from ME. Time to bring soldiers home. Most definitely not wanted in ME.
Doc| 3.11.11 @ 9:03AM
God your such a dufus, really you have never ever been to the ME for starters so you have no idea about their culture, let me put it to you in a way even you can understand.
Me against my brother, my brother and I against my father, my father, my brother and I against the tribe, the tribe against government and my family, my tribe, my country against all others...
Put the Kool Aid down, we support who ever the hell will sell us oil and buys our products, we keep out of their affairs unless it affects any of the first two...
Wee Willie| 3.7.11 @ 10:19AM
Jordan and Bahrain as well as Morocco are legitimate Monarchies. Has there ever been an over through of a legitimate Monarch that head to better government? The American right and the American left are united in a distrust of Kings. This vile prejudice has lead to the great disadvantage of America. Remember the results of President Wilson hatred of Monarchy and his efforts to make the world safe for democracy.
gazinya| 3.7.11 @ 10:46AM
Mr. Levinsons' argument sounds well thought out. I have little grasp of the Muslim history but there is one question I have. Which of these 'learning moments' will The Obama come away with? Are there so many in Government that think we, the masses, are too sophisticated to resort to open rebellion if the Gov decides to load just one more straw on our backs? Or does someone in the Lucifarian Party pull their head out and understand that it is not 'human nature or education' that seperates us from them, it is the Constitution. If that Law was adhered to then there would be no chance of rebellion.
InLineFour| 3.7.11 @ 11:36AM
Sorry John, but I simply cannot trust that what muslim protestors SAY their intentions are will actually come to pass if the protesters successfully overthrow their governments.
History has taught me not to. Substitute "Shah" in place of "Mubarak" and today's protests look exactly like Iran in 1979. Carter said he was giving democracy in Iran a chance, and the mullahs took over. Iran traded the rigid authoritarian rule of the Shah for the iron boot of an Islamic theocracy, where token democratic elections produce only mullah-approved presidents like Ahmadinejad (though I admid not quite as brutally rigid as the Islamic Taliban ruled Afghanistan). All these middle eastern and north African countries where the protests are occurring are dominated by muslims. And the freedoms and liberty guaranteed to us as Americans in our founding documents, what those protesters appear to be protesting for, those freedoms and liberties are anathema to Islam.
John| 3.7.11 @ 11:47AM
If the sanctions against Iran are removed the ayatollahs will fall. Nobody to blame for their incompetent rule. Paradixially the sanctions support the Iranian regime. America does not fear Islam it's closest ally in ME is islamically the most repressive regime on the planet. What is feared is Arab independence. when people are free they don't do what you tell them.
Occam's Tool| 3.7.11 @ 11:51PM
Dear John,
Removing sanctions will not hurt the ayatollahs. You are a blithering nincompoop.
Dixie Pixie| 3.7.11 @ 5:49PM
The funny thing is that Obama and Hillary are considered so incompetent that they can not be held responsible for Libya and the rest of the Middle East burning down.
After all how foolish is it to think "Soft Power" can substitute for "Hard Power".
To compound foolishness with stupidity, Obama substituted "Moral Preening" for "Soft Power"
Today Obama issued a statement suggesting that Daffy Colonel Gaddafi was being watched and would be held responsible for the violence in Libya.
This was sent to a Dictator fighting for his life in the middle of a civil war!
Obama might as well threatened that the Rectification of the Vuldrini is upon us and Gaddafi will roast in the belly of a large moving !!Torg!! if he does not leave Libya now!
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The fact that Trump has come out against the Korea-U.S. trade deal and this week's pulling of a vote on a trade deal in the House by the leadership shows there a very fluid House GOP caucus against the kind of trade deals which benefit only corporate interests and infringe upon U.S. sovereignty
Creative Recreation | 8.11.11 @ 2:19AM
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