The American Spectator : Unsustainable -- Do the Math

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Unsustainable — Do the Math

It’s come down to John Boehner vs. Pete Seeger.

“So be it.”

Those three words, uttered by House Speaker John Boehner last week about the prospect of federal work force layoffs, generated a firestorm of anger and anxiety among congressional Democrats, liberals, federal workers (and federal nonworkers in no small number of cases, considering the absence of output) and various other advocates of ever-expanding government.

The House speaker’s answer came in response to a question from Pacifica Radio’s Leigh Ann Caldwell.

“Do you have any estimate on how many jobs will be lost through this?” she asked, referring to the impact on government payrolls of the Republican majority’s plans to reduce Washington’s record levels of red ink by cutting federal spending by billions of dollars.

Boehner’s reply: “Since President Obama has taken office, the federal government has added 200,000 new federal jobs, and if some of those jobs are lost in this, so be it. We’re broke.”

As a footnote, Pacifica Radio describes itself as “America’s progressive news source.” Its idea of good programming is putting folk singer Pete Seeger on the air every Fourth of July to talk about his father’s communist ideology, just so listeners don’t get too patriotic about America’s founding and exceptionalism: “In those early days, he linked up with the communist movement. They had a thing called the Composers’ Collective. After all, in Russia they had collectives this and collectives that. And there, they decided, as skilled musicians, they would compose the new music for a new society.”

I don’t think there were any follow-up programs to explain how the massacres, terror, torture, jailing, executions, famines and mass deportations utilized by the communists to bring about the forced collectivization of the “new society” resulted in the deaths of between 85 million and 100 million people — victims killed by their own governments (see The Black Book of Communism, Harvard University Press, for an accounting).

In any case, Boehner is simply attempting to deal with out-of-control Washington spending — projected multitrillion dollar deficits, an accumulated federal debt of $14 trillion (and another $12 trillion projected to be added over the next decade), and budget plans from the Obama administration that fall drastically short of even putting a dent in the deficits and debt.

Mr. Obama’s current budget proposal, for instance, includes a well-publicized “spending freeze,” but the freeze applies to only 12 percent of the budget — freezing operations at their current deficit-producing and bloated levels and leaving the remaining 88 percent of the budget free to fly.

For this year, Obama’s budget projects spending of $3.8 trillion and incoming revenues of $2.1 trillion, producing a deficit of $1.7 trillion.

Do the math and it’s clear that these massive and unprecedented flows of red ink are simply not sustainable. The current $14 trillion federal debt averages out to $45,957 per American — $183,828 for a family of four.

With only half of U.S. households paying federal income taxes, double that $183,828 for the half that’s picking up the tab and the debt equals $367,656 per taxpaying household.

Double again to account for the $12 trillion to $14 trillion in Obama’s projected new federal debt over the next decade and the cost climbs to an average of $735,312 per household paying federal income taxes.

Increase the Chinese interest rate on that growing stack of debt and double the price of Saudi oil and we’ll be working for nothing, firmly stuck over two barrels.

And we’re not supposed to say we can’t afford 200,000 new federal workers, or 200,000 more nonworkers? “So be it” is language that’s too much — too rough, too uncivil — for some people to hear? We’re supposed to drown quietly in the red ink, with unfaltering civility?

About the Author

Ralph R. Reiland is the B. Kenneth Simon professor of free enterprise and an associate professor of economics at Robert Morris University in Pittsburgh.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (63) | Leave a comment Leave a comment

wodiej| 2.22.11 @ 6:41AM

This is mild considering how desperate the situation is. They are going to have to stand their ground. Im sure Obama and the Senate are drooling over making the GOP back down.

coal carrier| 2.22.11 @ 7:53AM

“For this year, Obama's budget projects spending of $3.8 trillion and incoming revenues of $2.1 trillion, producing a deficit of $1.7 trillion.”

This one sentence states it all. Anyone in our government that supports this sort of irresponsibility is obviously working toward the collapse of our nation. These individuals and/or their supporting groups should be deported.

Tim the Enchanter| 2.22.11 @ 11:19AM

Who'd want them, if deported?

USSAlabama| 2.22.11 @ 12:40PM

WANT them? Who would TAKE them?

Kurt in S.L.C.| 2.22.11 @ 6:20PM

Cuba , Venezuela,most of the countries in the Middle East,North Korea, you name a country that's an enemy of the U.S and they would be welcome.

Quartermaster| 2.22.11 @ 8:25PM

I very seriously doubt they would take them either. They might put them on display for awhile to show how humane they are rescuing those do-nothings. BUt, after awhile, when the left-stream media has lost interest, they would quietly deport them.

Grzmlyk| 2.23.11 @ 11:07AM

You mean conservatives.

You are so limited in your imaginations by "reality." We liberals don't think about the world as it is, we think about what might be.

That's why we think every Democrat should get $15 million from the government just for being a Democrat. Every Republican, of course, should be shot.

Ah, what a beautiful world it would be.

martin j smith| 2.22.11 @ 7:59AM

There is very little of value that one can say in a situation where one political party refuses to acknowledge the economic state of crisis we are in and other wants to repair it. In addition, that party that refuses to admit the crisis also purposefully wants to stoke it,inflame it and create a total breakdown. That is the honest and truthful view I have of what is really going on. This must be hammered home to voters who a\are open to hearing the truth.

Dan Hirsch| 2.22.11 @ 8:59AM

This is from the "Don't waste a crisis" crowd. What did you expect, economic sense? We just need to respect the laws, even though they seem unable to.

There is one lesson we can learn from the communist-progressives, they have been beating this dead socialistic horse for over 100 years. You have to admire their endurance.

Like them, we pro-constitutional, pro-country of laws citizens need to "Never give up, never quit, never surrender!!!

allanoleo| 2.22.11 @ 8:19PM

This is a great crisis! get out the Chainsaws!

Quartermaster| 2.22.11 @ 8:27PM

Will you be using "Texas Chainsaw Murders" for refresher training? :-)

Old Soldier| 2.22.11 @ 8:08AM

200,000 is nothing but a good start before the real cuts. It boggles my mind how little work we get out of so many people.

Alert1201| 2.22.11 @ 8:55AM

True. I currently work as a contractor for the IRS and worked for 10 years as a contractor for the EPA. I would estimate the average contractor can do the work of 5 or 6 government workers. Its not that we are great, but they do nothing. One of my first projects was developing an electronic document retrieval system. The one the EPA proposed would take about 3 years to develop and require training of programmers to write custom interfaces between the storage systems and the servers. As contractors we used off the shelf technology and had a prototype done in less then a week and had a fully implemented system in about three months. Even though it was 15 years ago I can still remember the look of shock on the EPA lead developers faces when we showed them the prototype. I have seen this same scenario play out dozens of times over my career. And the funny thing is the IRS is currently making a big push to get ride of contractors.

StarbucksDave| 2.22.11 @ 9:12AM

My experience is similar but somewhat different and much more dated (as in decades ago). I worked as a consultant with the State of Minnesota and it was not so much that the state employees didn't work, as it was that the work they did was nonsense. Programmers were so bogged down with useless and mind numbing procedures, meetings and the concomitant difficulty in getting decisions that they were lucky to get two to three hours of productive work accomplished in any given day. They all scurried around working hard, accomplishing nothing.

USSAlabama| 2.22.11 @ 12:43PM

The definition of bureaucracy.

Pelligrino| 2.23.11 @ 12:49AM

There is a lot of the nonsense EVERYWHERE to be found in government work and workers. Never think that even overall worthy departments like the Dept. of Defense are above reproach. No way. Bureaucracy that is mind-numbing. AND not just done by the civilians. Many of those uniformed officers now commanding desks (with special assignment at the coffee pots) were just as adept at looking good while doing nothing.

Just pull out a Dept. of Defense bubble chart (it's huge) to see this sub agencies and that sub department or office strewn all throughout Beltwayland and into the 50 states.

It's sickening. Much of it has zip to do with defending the nation.

All on your dime. And on your back.

Old Soldier| 2.22.11 @ 9:24AM

Can we get rid of all of them except the contractors?

Al Adab| 2.22.11 @ 10:00AM

200,000 is indeed a good start. Entire agencies must go having outlived any usefulness they might have once had. Add the Czars, please, and free us from these petty dictators.

Ned| 2.22.11 @ 11:28AM

Similar experiences here. One of the big priorities when I came here ten years ago was to decommission our old Digital Equipment "VAX" servers. One of the big priorities THIS year is to decommission our old Digital Equipment "VAX" servers.... except now the only source of spare parts for the still-operational machines is a nearby museum!

John Navratil| 2.22.11 @ 6:17PM

I'm getting old. I remember the 11/780 as some smokin' gear!

Quartermaster| 2.22.11 @ 8:29PM

That really wasn't that long ago.

Mark G| 2.22.11 @ 11:48AM

And all of them hired in the middle of the greatest downturn since the Great Depression. Just astounding. Its like the captain of the Titanic asking for the engines to be "Full Speed Ahead".
Insanity!!

John - TMF| 2.22.11 @ 8:22AM

Ah yes, "The Error" rears its head, again. What is "The Error" you ask, in this generally very accurate analysis?

The Error is the Conservative notion that the Left believes that we are actually running a deficit, and that bill is being laid upon the next several generations. (ok... please I KNOW we ARE)

The Error is that we are dealing with an Sociopolitical belief system who haven't an intellectual, moral, or economic clue as to what sort of concept that debt is.

One need only look at Wisconsin, Ohio, New York... California.... Blue Hole States with powerful wealth sucking gravity wells... to understand the problem.

The "rank and file" wants what it figures is due it, and it is due it, regardless of whether or not there is actually any more "it" to have.

They have a "contract"!!! Never mind that the contract is essentially a fraud. Don't worry about the fact that union membership is coerced and dues essentially a tax and kickback scheme. Pay no attention that the evil management target is actually the taxpayer. Forget that the children are maleducated to begin with, and then further treated to manipulation and even fraud in regard to the remnant of their educational experience.

What we are seeing is the revelation of the permanent child. The perpetual adolescent, for whom responsibility is for somebody else, and there is always money in the til for goodies...

Folks, please understand this. It is critical. The Left simply does not recognize that it is running up huge debts that nobody can pay. It doesn't care,"..there are NO Debts. It's all a a big "whatever"!" If the money ran out today, they would just write more checks. Who cares? It's all just pretend anyway.

- The grim reality is that we are running up on the time when corporate/personal/economic debt becomes a Sovereign issue. Once the bulk of the world's economy is proven to be nothing more than Sovereign debt, there is no telling how it will be collected, or how it will be paid.

Regards,

The Mighty Fahvaag

cuban pete| 2.22.11 @ 9:11AM

"What we are seeing is the revelation of the permanent child. The perpetual adolescent......"
End of story.
John-TMF you have said it all.
Thank You.

Rick Z| 2.22.11 @ 11:51AM

The Pubic Employees DESERVE the outrageous wages and benefits. They coerced and bribed the legislators, and now they deserve payback for their hard earned bonanzas at the taxpayers expense.

If the Pubic Employees don't get every cent, they will hold their breath until they turn blue in the face. ...

Damuser | 2.22.11 @ 8:43AM

While I can appreciate and actually enjoy some of Pete Seeger's little folk songs and such, these days when PBS, et al props him up on stage to snivel out a few more of his timeless "America Sucks" songs, all I end up hearing is ... Blowing In The Wind. Or in Pete's case -- Hot Air.

Tell 'ya what, Pete ... why not find a nice cozy rocker, park your skinny fanny in it while collecting your month S.S. check and just whisk away with that wind Dylan the younger wrote about in '63. See, it's 2011 already and ... your stage time has come and gone.

Kind of like that last wind.

Anthony| 2.22.11 @ 9:02AM

Right On Damuser. The "We're The One's We've Been Waiting For" crowd, come to think of it, they do look an awful like those sclerotic '60s types.
Bring in the Momma's and the Pappa's while your're at it. No, better yet, Sly and the Family Stone. Yeah baby, that will get the juices flowing, even without the Viagra.
And Jessie's coming back to Wisconsin, (after a brief visit to see his love child to pay his child support, with our tax dollars, no doubt).
O.K. just to amuse this old fool, when he arrives everybody chant "It's Selma, It's Slema".
Maybe they can also stage walker races to amuse the brave striking teachers standing for AMERICA!!!

Michael L. Hauschild| 2.22.11 @ 8:51AM

OK, after you raise the enrollment age for Social Security four months every year till the system becomes self supporting (people live longer because they are healthier, why not work longer?) you then cut any non-military government salaried bureaucracy five percent of its staffing a year. To take the "beltway" out of these cuts they will be across the board (the winners move up the ranks) and done by lottery. Don't tell me this cannot be instituted fairly, I "lost" a government lottery in 1969.

JP| 2.22.11 @ 9:08AM

I think the President seriously underestimate the grass roots anger out there, and over-stated the influence of his party, the unions, and the MSM. Essientially, he is practicing political brinksmanship. But, this kind of brinksmanship has a limited shelf-life. There is an elction in 18 months, and if he and his allies persist, they will be throwing the elections to the GOP. I think the President has too much confidence in his charisma. It should have been obvious in November that there are limits even for him.

Let the games begin.

Mimi| 2.22.11 @ 12:05PM

JP..In my mind He's already lost the 2012 election and for TWO clear reasons just recent.
1....Too many waivers to favorites on Obama-care
2...Choosing to side with the Unions and encouraging disruption on childrens education.
These are outrages with great impact...despotic, dictator like activity on the part of a PRESIDENT of these United States of America ....very..totally great disrespect of the office.... and third world country like!
The 2012 election has just been lost to him ...NOW OVER at this HOUR!!!!

David T| 2.22.11 @ 5:19PM

Mimi--I truly hope you're right, but I have one question: Who's going to beat him?

Occam's Tool| 2.22.11 @ 6:37PM

John Bolton can take him---a Goldwater Conservative on Domestic issues and a Win the War on Terror guy on Foreign issues... Easy, peasy, lemon-squeezy.

Quartermaster| 2.22.11 @ 8:34PM

Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. Just remember 1996. The GOP was insane to nominate Dole, the only man Clinton could beat handily, and Clinton beat him like a drum.

idalily| 2.22.11 @ 3:57PM

18 months? Why does it seem like 18 years? I just hope we still have a country by then.

Dan Hirsch| 2.22.11 @ 9:16AM

Two things:

The next time I hear someone, especially a Fox commentator refer to Social Security as an "entitlement" I'm going to pitch the curvy couch through my own flat screen!

Dammitall, I and my employers have been PAYING into the Social Security Trust Fund since 1970! I paid into that fund on the promise that I'd get it back later, if I managed to live that long. In any case this is not some social justice concept -it's cash that I earned, that they took on the condition that they'd pay it back. This is not welfare, this is not charity, this is a savings plan.

Er, they said it was a savings plan. 'Til they needed some cash and saw that this was laying around unguarded.

Think I put money into 401K's? Not on your life!

Oh and another thing! Everyone talks about how people are living longer these days because life expectancy keeps increasing. That's statistical hogwash!

Do the math: Life expectancy is the number of years lived divided by the number of lives. If I have a population of 2 people and they both live to 80 years of age, the next one born will be cheerily told you have a life expectancy of 80 years.

But if one of the two dies a week after he's born, the next one born will be told, not so cheerily, you have a life expectancy of 40 years. It's infants and kids dying or not dying that lower or raise life expectancy. Black American men worried about their own life expectancy can greatly improve their own outlook by looking at the number of black boys (young males, for you Operation PUSH types) going to early graves because of 9mm bullets, drug overdoses, and any other cause and doing something about it. Give Bill Cosby a call - he'll tell ya!

Brian Mc| 2.22.11 @ 9:57AM

I wonder what the life expectancy is when abortions are factored in? As for your earlier remark, Dan: I'll take my SS contributions in one lump sum and put it in the bank, and thanks for the concern to the do-gooders for all they've done for me over the years...NOT. Oh, that's right...I'm too stupid to be trusted with my own money. Treason and thievery runs amok and we are powerless to stop it? Socialists have been trying to prove all along that you can legislate compassion and rid us of stupidity by executive fiat. Idiots, all. So, let us boldly draw near the throne...of big government...hail, Caesar! This aside, God help us.

Ned| 2.22.11 @ 11:44AM

Dan - Social Suck-curity IS an "entitlement", because it was and is the world's largest Ponzi scheme.

FDR led the disingenuous campaign to *describe* S.S. as a 'savings and retirement plan' to fool the 1930's public, but it HAS NEVER been that at all.

On the one hand, it's just another form of taxation that the Federal wastrels cloak behind magic words. And on the other hand it's a social welfare plan based upon unsustainable demographics that ARE - right now - eating us alive.

I've been trying to get out of the damn thing since '63. Yes, just give me my money back, interest free, and I'll absolve the government of paying me anything going forward, and be much the better off for being free of them.

Dan Hirsch| 2.22.11 @ 2:24PM

It was turned into a Ponzi scheme only when the payment of benefits was divorced from the payment into the trust fund. I do not want the amounts they are offering nowadays - amounts which are unsustainable, I just the money I and my employers put into the system.

So to accept your logic, you would have to differentiate between the net present value of the payments into the SSTF and the OVERpayments legislated by Congress. The payments' NPV are NOT an entitlement. The overpayment beyond the payments' NPV is.

I just want my money back! Why do I have to pay more taxes to pay government employees their pensions, when we call returning money I've paid in to a "Trust Fund" an entitlement.

BTB it's not like I just figured this out. I've known it since 1972 or 1973.

We are SO screwed...

idalily| 2.22.11 @ 4:02PM

I would GLADLY sacrifice all the money I have paid in over the 35+ years I have worked if from this day on the government kept their greedy hands out of my wallet and let me fund my retirement all by myself and if they would stop messing with the banks, the stock market and my ability to buy precious metals so that I could put MY money safely away on my own.

Quartermaster| 2.22.11 @ 8:37PM

There is no trust fund. Congress done spent it all. It's nothing but US Gov bonds. Anyone wanna guess the probability of those bonds being redeemed?

John Navratil| 2.22.11 @ 6:20PM

Dan Hirsch,

Two points!

(1) You will get you S/S payments back within a couple of years of retirement.

(2) The baby who died at birth never pay in. You need to compare the life expectancies of people who pay in and will actually draw a payment.

Richard Baker| 2.22.11 @ 9:58AM

This what you get for government when you spend your youth pursuing sex, drugs, and Rock 'n Roll. Not much reality in the government these days. Create 200K+ Federal jobs, spend all the money, and those who attempt to right this sinking ship are "mean?" How childish. Oh, by the way, this includes ALL political parties and hangers-on.

Seek| 2.22.11 @ 12:52PM

How does rock n' roll, as anti-bureaucratic an expression as one will find, fit into all this?

Occam's Tool| 2.22.11 @ 6:40PM

Woodstock was not a Conservative meeting ground, Seek. Or, as John McCain put it---"I'm sure it was fascinating, but I was tied up at the time."

Bob K.| 2.22.11 @ 10:01AM

As usual, and with his economy of words, Professor Reiland takes no prisoners!

Bob K.| 2.22.11 @ 10:04AM

And the the thoughts expressed in the comments above deserve accolades to!

PattyMor| 2.22.11 @ 10:07AM

The Demons know full well what they are doing. They know they are spending us into oblivion. Its the Cloward/Pivens Strategy. When the takers are told that there is no more money, the riots will begin. Then dear Obamalini will usher in martial law. Good Bye the late great, U.S.A.

Bob Miller| 2.22.11 @ 10:20AM

I'm concerned that our military, which would have to deal with any serious civil (uncivil!!) unrest, is now being managed at its highest levels by the politically correct.

David W| 2.22.11 @ 11:27AM

I happened to be watching PBS (the Dallas station) and saw a "commercial" concerning the importance of Federal Government funding. We were encouraged to contact our government reps to show our support for PBS (though I'm sure Mr. Soros would be more than happy to make up the difference).

We need to keep our Republican Reps and Senators' feet to the fire and make the cuts. If they fail, then God help us.

Dean| 2.22.11 @ 11:57AM

The roots of our current Social Security and education systems can be traced back to 19th-century Prussia. The driving force behind such "reforms" was the infamous "Iron Chancellor," Otto von Bismarck.

Anthony| 2.22.11 @ 1:11PM

ODE TO THE DEMOCRAT PARTY
Bye, Bye, Miss American Pie,
Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee's run dry.
Them Union boys, cry'n why oh why
Singing this will be the day the Ds die!!!

A.M. Mallett| 2.22.11 @ 1:56PM

The New American Revolution is underway

Anthony| 2.22.11 @ 2:12PM

UNSUSTAINABLE
( sung to the song Unforgettable)

Unsustainable that's where we are
Unsustainable we've gone too far
Like a ton of debt that clings to me
The very thought of it does things to me
Never before has crisis lingered more......

What can I say folks, I'm in a singing mood, the Democrat Party, the Unions, and Obozo are all imploding.
As A.M says, The New American Revolution. INDEED! BRING IT ON!!!!

Timely Renewed | 2.22.11 @ 2:29PM

Spending cuts are good and more would be better, but that is a retail solution to a wholesale problem. The House needs to address a deeper issue. Republican Congresses since the end of World War II have all failed in one significant respect, a failure which has allowed the continued growth of federal government overreach. This is that they have failed to reverse the New Deal Supreme Court's elimination of the Constitution's restraints on federal power. The original constitutional meanings have been so misconstrued and abused by over 70 years of progressive control of the Supreme Court and other branches of the federal government that simple legislative action is not enough. We need to promote amendments to the Constitution to restore its original meaning and structure and lock in this moment of constitutionalist resurgence. See http://www.timelyrenewed.com

JeffB| 2.22.11 @ 2:43PM

It all sounds great up until it looks like their might be actual cuts then the media will trot out the homeless veterans and grandma who will go without her medicine. After that the republicans will go soft and agree to kick the can down the road again.

I know we all think it's really serious this time but it has worked for them every other time.

Wish I could be optomistic.

Redstateboy| 2.22.11 @ 3:21PM

"Double again to account for the $12 trillion to $14 trillion in Obama's projected new federal debt over the next decade and the cost climbs to an average of $735,312 per household paying federal income taxes."

$735,312?? My end?? Uh...... Will ya take a post-dated check?

Who Knows?| 2.22.11 @ 6:44PM

Boehner and our gang of awake elected leaders who can stop the spending bleeding should build on

SO BE IT.

Change this three-word dash of cold water into the face of suicidal leftists to

LET IT BE.

Yes, let it be John Lennon, arising from the dead, to punctuate the coming application of a tournaquet to the bleeding federal fisc.

Impeach Don't Wait| 2.22.11 @ 8:18PM

They're "going Greek" in Wisconsin.
The president proposes a $1.7 trillion deficit.
They want to build high-speed rails with no sustainable market for it?....
The immaturity is mind boggling.

The kids have had their fun. The adults are taking over.

So be it.

Richard Baker| 2.23.11 @ 7:55PM

Seek:
The entire expression described the '60s mindset that led to the liberal nightmare, whether done by the left or right, which has us on the ropes, at present. Infantile thinking would be another way to describe it.

Mike Rogers| 2.26.11 @ 11:27AM

I am liking what I've seen of the new speaker Boehner, and I'm happy to support him and Paul Ryan all the way.
According to multiple studies, regardless of actual tax rates, income is fungible, and the American people won't pay more than 19% of GDP in Federal taxes. (Long term average 18%)
Income 19%, outgoings 18%, result, happiness.
Income 19%, outgoings >20%, result, disaster!
(With apologies to Mr Micawber.)
Reason Foundation's recent study suggests that we need to cut about $850Bn from current spending, and hold the line from there. Their alternative scenario was to cut 6% each year until 2020 and let the GDP catch up so that expenditures are below 19% of GDP by then.
Personally, I believe that Draconian cuts up front are the better answer, not the least of reasons being that prolonged small pain will not result in a rapid turn in the economy, and will result in the big spenders getting back into office.
My favorite numbers are 1920 and 1946, when Federal government spending was slashed dramatically, and the pain was very brief, followed by an impressive boom in each case.
Carpe Diem, Mr Speaker, and apply a tourniquet to halt the bleeding. I can think of several limbs of the government octopus which can be dispensed with outright.
More here:
http://granitegrok.com/blog/20.....artme.html

Reebok | 8.11.11 @ 3:05AM

is good

العاب | 4.11.12 @ 5:31PM