The American Spectator : An Arab Spring?

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An Arab Spring?

By Roger Kaplan on 2.18.11 @ 6:08AM

What's it all about -- an unquenchable thirst for freedom? The Muslim Brotherhood? As Algeria is showing again, this just the start.

If crowds can inspire one another, can security agencies do the same? It may be that Tunisians venting their frustrations against the Ben Ali kleptocracy inspired disgruntled Cairenes fed up with the Mubarak system. This in turn may have encouraged Iranian anti-mullahs to take up where the protests against last year's electoral frauds left off, even as Algerians of various political backgrounds got together in a "coordination" (ad-hoc committee) to descend on the capital last weekend, as they propose to do again tomorrow.

In Morocco the crowd movements were more discreet, but Justice and Benevolence folks -- the Islamists -- let it be known change must come, lest it happen. In Jordan, where deaf and blind American observers have always assumed the unbreakable loyalty of the Bedouin tribes to the monarchy, the situation suddenly turned shaky when it emerged it was not only those truculent and malcontent Palestinians (85 per cent of Jordan's population) who were demanding "change," but the tribals as well.

So you never know. But following unrest in Yemen, a primitive desert autocracy, and Bahrain, a modern Gulf state, you have to say it can happen anywhere, not that anyone knows what it is.

Initially paralyzed in their heads by the suddenness of it all, security agencies in Tunisia and Egypt evidently broke down at the command and control level, allowing lower grades to commit excesses, notably by wielding batons and discharging their firearms. This is what happens when there is panic at the top. In Yemen and Bahrain the nerves at the top seem to be of a different steel -- so far -- and the violence is ordered. There could be an international thread running through the wave of protests from the Atlantic to the Gulf, but we are not sure what it is (are we, Mister Jones?). The optimists believe it is the unquenchable human thirst for freedom. The pessimists say it is the Muslim Brotherhood.

Of course, it could be both. The Brothers, a Sunni movement, are not active in Iran, where the preponderantly youthful protesters are quite openly anti-mullah and, last year, called for American support (we let the phone ring). Elsewhere, it is the old strange-bedfellows scene, enemies under the skin taking aim at the same target. If the targeted regimes are not the same, they compare in that they are run by closed cliques. If a clique says it is running your country, you can agree to blame it for everything.

You overthrow the clique, then you get rid of your bedfellow. Or he gets rid of you. The model for this, studied by generations of Arabs, is the Comité de Salut Public (Committee of Public Safety) set up in April 1793 by French radicals. It ended badly. Depending on your inclinations, you can translate the word salut as security or salvation. Either way, revolutions have a dangerous pedigree.

However, last weekend the Algerian government refused to issue a permit to marchers assembling under the banner of the Coordination for Democracy and Change, and it enforced the ban. There was a march, and it did not get very far, and, reportedly, hundreds were arrested among the estimated five to ten thousand demonstrators. The police, who by some accounts outnumbered the protesters, were ready and strategically led. They held the key street corners of the capital, the access venues, the important buildings.

They looked very French in their navy-blue riot gear, but the French government reacted by calling for respect of human rights, freedom of assembly and expression and so forth (as did the State Department), though this is unlikely to have any more consequence (though for different reasons) than the French foreign minister's suggestion a few weeks earlier that the Tunisian government sub-contract crowd control to French law enforcement. The howler continues to reverberate in Paris as the said foreign minister's family's business deals with the Ben Ali clique come to light.

The Algerians are fiercely protective of their freedom of action, and in any case they do not owe the French or us anything, quite the contrary. They are major suppliers of oil and natural gas. The U.S. strategy of containing al Qaeda in the Sahara, blocking a breakout into the populated coastal zones of North Africa, on one side, and sub-Saharan black Africa on the other, leans heavily on cooperation with Algerian security agencies. Indeed, top U.S. anti-terror officials were in Algiers praising their counterparts when the Tunisians began tearing down their Bastille.

It is not impossible that the Bahrainis got the message last weekend: if the malcontents can make an internationale, so can security men. They came down hard in the days following and promise to come down harder. Recess is over.

But is it? Our trillion dollar intelligence-and-foreign policy services, aided and abetted by the most narcissistic press corps in history ("Watch me make the revolution, ma!") and a totally useless democracy-manufacturing industry whose emblem and hero is former President Jimmy Carter, does not know.

Well, with apologies to the U.S. taxpayer, that is okay, because we will find out soon enough. The Coordination for Change and Democracy is calling for indefinite Saturday demos in Algiers and other cities, apparently prepared to test the limits of the regime's nerve.

FOR THE MOMENT, the important factor in Algeria is whether the change-and-democracy movement can grow beyond its Kabyle base. The Kabyles are a Berber group concentrated in the capital and the region to its east, called Kabylie (Kabylia in English). They are historically the most liberal, democratic-socialist, secular, anti-Islamist, and truculent people in the country. Matoub Lanes, a popular singer with an international following, was known for insulting Arabs and Islam on the stage. He was assassinated in 1998. He went down fighting, and there were weeks of unrest in Kabylie, to the cries of "Pouvoir assassin, government of killers." However, the regime rejected the blame, blaming terrorists for the murder.

The Kabyles, about eight million in a country of under 30 million, were the core of the national movement which wrested the country from France in an atrocity-filled war in the 1950s, and they staff all levels of the Algerian state. The present prime minister is a Kabyle. The president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, is widely thought to harbor an anti-Kabyle bias (he denies it), as did the austere Houari Boumediene, whom he served as foreign minister in the 1970s, but he put through a law making the Kabyle language co-equal with Arabic, not that many Algerians would understand the Arabic spoken in Yemen (which is supposed to be very pure) or even Egypt. The point, at any rate, is that there are plenty of Kabyles who have a stake in the Algerian state, or want to reform it from within, or both.

The reason this matters is that many Kabyles are fed up with it all and want the country to devolve into a federal union in which their territory would be largely autonomous, on the model of Quebec or Catalonia (or Texas?). They feel they gave and gave and never got back. Early in the first Bouteflika term, in 2001, brutal repression came down on the region following the death of a high school student in police custody. The weeks and months of demonstrations and protests revealed the extent of anti-government feeling. Local councils were elected and proposed to take charge locally. The government reacted with heavy, and heavy-handed, police presence, along with some concessions, on the language issue for instance, but mistrust persists and runs deep. Kabylie is one of the rare regions in the Arab-Muslim world where support is openly expressed for the U.S. and Israel, alongside criticism.

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About the Author

Roger Kaplan is a writer in Washington, D.C.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (66) | Leave a comment

Herb| 2.18.11 @ 7:23AM

The author's stated frame of reference is the last sixty years. He might have included some vignettes from that past: Algeria as briefly part of France, guerilla warfare and the Secret Army Organization, the expulsion of the pieds-noirs who burned their automobiles rather than see them expropriated, and the Islamification of once-western Algiers. Now, the only possible hope for Algeria is simply that it is majority non-Arab.

Alan Brooks| 2.18.11 @ 11:38AM

Spring?
March comes in like a socialist and goes out like a Communist.

ENOUGH ROPE| 2.18.11 @ 12:18PM

Recognize that Obama is a saboteur who wants America to become a third world country. Obama regards America and its upper and middle classes as oppressors of the world and the poor in the same way that European colonial powers exploited their colonies.

Obama is an habitual liar in order to bankrupt and destroy America. He is a SMILING COBRA.

Alan Brooks| 2.18.11 @ 12:51PM

But even if Obama stood still frozen in place, he couldn't do worse than Bush 41 & 43.

canuckistani| 2.18.11 @ 4:39PM

So true....
41's renewal of China's MFN (and Clinton as well) and his desire to defend the fat bastards of Kuwait and Saudi without running Saddam out delivered a one-two punch to the country.
Junior, by all accounts, turned everything he touched to sh!t. No one within or without his admin can take a position defending his decisions with a straight face. The Bin Laden connection to his Arbusto oil interests is also fascinating.

Relatedly, Powell's apparent shock that he was duped by rogue Iraqi's is humorous if it didn't precipitate the deaths of soldiers and hundreds of thousands of civilians.

Can we have an amendment banning presidents from Texas? They seem to be able to ruin things regalrdless of party stripe.

believer| 2.18.11 @ 6:30PM

Lets not forget L.B.J., it was his decision to lie and escalate the war in vietnam, and his stupidity to get into the S.S. fund and fund the war on poverty, which by the way resulted in our eventual poverty. Yes I would say make it illegal for a Texan to become President.

Alan Brooks| 2.18.11 @ 8:45PM

The motion has been seconded.

martin j smith| 2.18.11 @ 7:40AM

When one hears of violence to reporters from the West then in my view there is NO SPRING!!!!!!!!!!
Oh, it would be wonderful if there was a genuine Democratic Revolution.
But, I would not place one cent on that. Especially if we take into account our own great leader who is less inspiring that a shriveled piece of asparagus.
No, we in the US even in the best of times would have to wait out the outcome--but with a real leader who cares about American interests
there would be human intelligence on the ground. And, as in the Cold War and WWII we would encourage when possible elements that supported real Democracy. Not another Dictator.
Having said that I would also sadly add...unless there is no choice--as a stop gap measure.

canuckistani| 2.18.11 @ 4:45PM

Between Ike and Nixon and Bush 41, they planted the seeds and now we have the reapings of our "interventions".
Junior was just the icing on the cake.

Alan Brooks| 2.20.11 @ 11:22PM

Let's also ban Georgians from being POTUS.
Carter meant well, but so did Harding.

Carter was an absolute incompetent;
cogent progressivism is necessary, but NOT squishy, boneheaded, bungling illiberalism. Carter was to politics as Frank Burns was to M*A*S*H... a quack.

Am Freemen| 2.18.11 @ 8:34AM

----Globalists sticking to their schedule for their now centuries stale EUGENIC world utopia.

Seems they simply won't enjoy their pudding until
there're 7/11's, Oprah be-ins and mandatory
injections and abortions from Tangier to Islamabad.

Set-up tyrant Mubarak, a fierce opponent
of 'smile button eugenics' (FACT), just simply didn't measure up anymore.

NOW for those 'popular leaders' with Oxford accents and beckgrounds in the UN/Soros
cliques that seem to pop up out of nowhere.

The Tavistock Institute really is losing its renowned subtle and cunning 'social engineering'
touch.

No doubt so much 'success' carries an
inevitable price.

NO DOUBT AT ALL

canuckistani| 2.18.11 @ 4:46PM

Huh?

Alan Brooks| 2.18.11 @ 8:51PM

The Illuminati sent Lee Harvey Oswald and Jack Ruby to fluoridate our Purity Of Essence (POE); then Caroline Kennedy and John John shot their father in Dallas in '63.
Now do you get it?

Stormzeye| 2.18.11 @ 9:33AM

Fascinating overview of the Berbers vs. the Arabs. People forget that the "Arabs" are a colonizer of much of the Islamic world. There were many viable minorities that were not from the Arabian desert that still resent the "Arabs".

Doctor Right| 2.18.11 @ 9:47AM

Obama is a Muslim.

Let the fun begin.

loulou| 2.18.11 @ 10:08AM

Arabs are predators.
They are barbarians incapable of living in modern, civilized society.

Doctor Right| 2.18.11 @ 10:21AM

Genesis 16:12 (Regarding Ishmael, the second son of Abraham, and the "father" of the Arab people)

12 He will be a wild donkey of a man;
his hand will be against everyone
and everyone’s hand against him,
and he will live in hostility
toward[a] all his brothers.”

believer| 2.18.11 @ 6:41PM

LouLou- If your right all of our western allies will be predator controlled in 50 years. Check it out on the net how Muslims are slowly becoming the majority in all but a couple of Europian Nations. According to stats in 100 years England as well as some other Europian friends will be allmost totally white free.

believer| 2.18.11 @ 6:44PM

John| 2.18.11 @ 11:53AM

I've been waiting all my life for the arab reawakening. Suddenly its here. I'm estatic. In tears. things will be different in the future . America can continue to be part of the future in ME if it backs the people not tyrants, and escorts the six million Palestinian refugees home . change you can believe in. Peace.

Ken (Old Texican)| 2.18.11 @ 12:37PM

John,
I wish the Muslims well in the middle east. Let's just place an impenetrable barrier around all of them, and wish them God's speed.
Oh,
First, let's pull out every westerner, and every nut and bolt of our technology.

John| 2.18.11 @ 12:59PM

Everybody is welcome in ME. also ME is not just Muslims it's also christains Jews . who have as much right as any Muslim to be in ME. What is not wanted: occupation, military bases, apartheid etc. no that is just plain nasty. here's hoping for better ME. peace to you ken.

canuckistani| 2.18.11 @ 4:58PM

Real Americans like Roosevelt, Ike, Nixon, RR, 41, Clinton and Junior all whored themselves for the Arab black gold.

We are the whores, not them. We went to their doorsteps, accepted their money and handed over our people and materiel....perhaps we need a chastity belt around our selfish egos.

China is next in line for their "servicing".....are you ready to call BS on other Real Americans like Sam Walton, Greg Page, Hugh Grant, and Patti Woertz?
Get ready, the hosing at the grocery shelf is next.....

W| 2.18.11 @ 7:34PM

You are not an American, we spell it material not materiel. Who cares what you think, worry about your own country, we can take care of ourselves, and don't need another sissy lefty anti american.

simon templar| 2.23.11 @ 2:10AM

canuckistani, Got caught, eh? Gotta watch those dead give aways, canned Socialist posing as a Conservative in a Box!

skip| 2.18.11 @ 12:31PM

Gee, less than a week ago you warned us if we didn't get our own petroleum the middle east would destroy our economy.

Will the middle east including palestinians recognize Israel's right to exist in all the reawakening and change you can believe (why does that sound so familiar?) and the different ecstatic future?

In all the great multiculturalism that is deeply enriching and melts hearts and every American celebrates the national islam holiday every September 11th will women be deemed worth more than cattle and goats or will it be same old same old?

John| 2.18.11 @ 1:04PM

Hope for a better tomorrow is better than hate today and tomorrow. America can play a very positive role in ME but has to back the people not the tyrants . At the heart of America there is goodness. Unfortunately its hidden under the military industrial complex which is bleeding America dry. I think Americans are waking up.

Occam's Tool| 2.18.11 @ 1:16PM

John, Are you sure you're not Clint? You sound an awful lot like him, except for the caps.

We are destined for VERY BAD things. The Generation that stopped the Soviets by coming of age in Reaganland will have to stop this menace, too, the menace of John's friends.

John| 2.18.11 @ 1:39PM

Yeh, you keeping backing the tyrants. I'll back the people. even if we lose we still win.

W| 2.18.11 @ 4:54PM

name the tyrants

John| 2.18.11 @ 6:31PM

Name the tyrants? Is that meant to be a joke.

W| 2.18.11 @ 7:34PM

No. name them.

W| 2.18.11 @ 8:01PM

John
Do you need permission or clearance from your mullah to name the tyrants?

John| 2.18.11 @ 11:22PM

I will humour you on this occasion -
Rulers in ME in the pockets of CIA
Saudi UAE Qatar Yemen Bahrain Kuwait etc etc ofcourse eygpt is partially of the list.
these are among the most repressive regimes on the earth. They rulers exist only to provide military bases, kill their people, steal the money which mostly laundered in London Zurich newyork. But the Arabs are waking up. Its time America ditches the tyrants and backs the people. or it will be on wrong side of history. Americans are waking up. the biggest bully in the region is ISReal. This revolutions spell disaster for zionism.

skip| 2.19.11 @ 1:29AM

Is it true the name 'John' is a moniker used to cleverly mislead all the infidel swine?

And that your real name is 'Raghead bin Pound Sand'?

W| 2.19.11 @ 12:03PM

real name is adolf

W| 2.19.11 @ 4:34PM

are the rules of Iran and Syria tyrants, john?

W| 2.19.11 @ 4:34PM

are the rulers of Iran and Syria tyrants, john?

George| 2.19.11 @ 4:40PM

A country with four million people,Israel, is a bully to the Muslims countries of over 500 million people. You cannot accept that Israel has kicked your ass in every war since 1948 so you have to make up fantasies like the CIA. Israel is not going away.
Admit it, face the truth, you will feel better.

skip| 2.18.11 @ 5:24PM

Answer whether women are included as people, or whether they are still trailing goats in worth.

If you middle easterners win even when you lose congratulations you are undefeated.

Clint| 2.18.11 @ 5:17PM

Uh Oh ! Israel Firster AgendaBoy Tool Job is seeing Clint behind every rock.
Apparently, Tool Job ,The Israel Firster is Fixated on Clint because We Tea Party Patriots & Our Mission Statement don't Asskiss His Personal Israel Firster Agenda.

America First.

The Tea Party Rebellion Escalates.

Wisconsin Tea Party Rallies in Wisconsin Tomorrow.

Too Many Tims| 2.18.11 @ 1:34PM

Latest news is Djibouti is going down too. I don't even know where Djibouti is.

Will| 2.18.11 @ 1:59PM

On the Horn of Africa.
And one wonders why Americans have a reputation for being ignorant and contemptuous of the world around them.

canuckistani| 2.18.11 @ 5:01PM

"One" cannot be an average American, because we lost any self-examination skills sometime during the 41 admin.

The usual perception of America is "intelligent, powerful" but really stupid and unwise - much like a 17-year-old computer whiz without any nuance.

W| 2.18.11 @ 8:02PM

You are not an American, but your are describing yourself as stupid and unwise.

Fred| 2.18.11 @ 2:37PM

When you have a primitive, violent honor/shame culture, on top of that, a fanatical, violent religion that maintains substituting the will of the people for the will of Allah as expressed in Shari'a is blasphemous, and on top of _that_ a centuries (if not millenia) long tradition of corrupt, nepotistic, brutal, oppressive politics, you don't have an environment terribly conducive to democracy and the rule of law. What we're seeing is not 1989; it's 1979 - - on steroids.

John| 2.18.11 @ 8:34PM

A primitive violent culture-you should stop talking about the American industrial complex.
tradition of corrupt, nepotistic, brutal, oppressive politics- yeh, colonialism stinks.
you don't have an environment terribly conducive to democracy and the rule of law-American ocupations in ME isnt that great.
What we're seeing is not 1989; it's 1979 on
steroids-agree this glorious revolution is definitely on steroids.

skip| 2.19.11 @ 3:14PM

It is easy to see how much colonialism stinks by looking at a list of nations that started out as colonial territories, nations like the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, and, as anyone can see are nations at the bottom of all global lists such as wealth per capita, economic output, military capability, available medical care, standard of living, degree of liberty, charitable giving, and quality of life, and other lists.

If women are worth less than cows or goats, and a woman gave birth to you, how do you square the fact you who was spewed forth out of a woman would have to be considered worth less than the woman who is worth less than a cow or goat, would you not be worth less than a pig even?

Are women treated this way because they have to squint to see the men's genitalia in your world, or in some cases to see if the men even have genitalia?

tatosian| 2.19.11 @ 12:57AM

Muslims Abduct Coptic Christian Woman in Egypt --
"Muslims broke into the home of a Coptic family this afternoon and abducted their 18-year-old daughter...The home belongs to the building contractor who built the controversial St. Mary and St. Michael church in Talbiya.
St. Mary and St. Michael church was the scene on November 24, 2010 of severe clashes between State Security forces and Copts protesting over the closure of their church, during which the forces used tear gas and live ammunition against the protesters, resulting in the killing of three Copts, hundreds of injuries and the arrest of 176 Copts (AINA 11-27-2010).
During the protests in Tahrir Square...the congregation of St. Mary and St. Michael church was guarding the church...On February 6, as soon as a few security officers came back on duty, they stormed the church and evicted the priest and the congregation who were keeping vigil there and holding services praying for peace in Egypt...On February 8 sectarian violence broke out...when some 80 Muslims attacked a number of Copts because they attempted to pray in a house belonging to the Diocese since 2007...On February 16 the Church of St. George in Rafah was torched, the walls of the church had writing saying "No to Christians in Muslim Land...on February 17 Muslims attacked Christians inside the church of Saint Georges in the village of El-Hathatah near Samalout, Minya."

That's not a glorious revolution. That's just Muslims being Muslims.

http://www.aina.org/news/20110218224244.htm

tatosian| 2.19.11 @ 1:06AM

Libya Internet shut off by gov’t

http://bikyamasr.com/wordpress/?p=27778

Islam likely to stay Egypt’s state religion: sources

http://www.alarabiya.net/artic.....38073.html

tatosian| 2.19.11 @ 1:27AM

Egypt protest hero Wael Ghonim barred from stage

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/e.....rred-stage

Couple accused of illegal relationship freed (Kuwait)

http://www.emirates247.com/new.....9-1.357997

Egyptian Revolutionary| 2.19.11 @ 9:51AM

The imperialist Shah once said Hormuz jugglar of west, today Suez Canal. Zionist shipping-NO! Oil for Imperialists-NO! Iranian warships-YES! Stock Market Crash-YES! Bye Bye American Imperialists!

skip| 2.19.11 @ 6:11PM

You must really be an embarrassment to Allah.

You should give thanks to Allah every day that Israel, a sovereign nation who can bomb you into the stone age in less than a minute, hasn't already done so, or will not do so tomorrow.

Allah must consider anyone more worthless than swine an infidel such as you who is so stupid as to taunt the United States, the greatest nation Allah has ever witnessed, and a nation that can bomb even Israel off the face of the earth in less than a minute.

Ken (Old Texican)| 2.19.11 @ 2:45PM

Revolutionary,
Congratulations. You have just cut off your own nose to spite your face.
You are just going to LOVE Egypt without our grain to eat.
You guys are going to get mighty hungry over there.
Best of luck.

tatosian| 2.19.11 @ 7:39PM

Egypt to reveal constitutional reforms, women not included
http://bikyamasr.com/wordpress/?p=27820

tatosian| 2.19.11 @ 7:52PM

Egypt court approves moderate Islamic party

"Al-Wasat was founded in 1996 when a faction broke away from the Muslim Brotherhood...The party...according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace "seeks to interpret Islamic sharia principles in a manner consistent with the values of a liberal democratic system...Although al-Wasat advocates a political system that is firmly anchored in Islamic law, it also views sharia principles as flexible and wholly compatible with the principles of pluralism and equal citizenship rights."

Really?

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/e.....amic-party

tatosian| 2.19.11 @ 8:04PM

Najis Things (things or persons regarded as ritually unclean by Shia Moslems)

84. * The following ten things are essentially najis:

* Urine
* Faeces
* Semen
* Dead body
* Blood
* Dog
* Pig
* Kafir
* Alcoholic liquors
* The sweat of an animal who persistently eats najasat.

http://www.al-islam.org/laws/najisthings.html

tatosian| 2.20.11 @ 7:03PM

Constitutional amendment committee: Article II will not be touched
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/e.....be-touched

Muslim Brotherhood: Christians and Women Unsuitable for Presidency

http://www.aina.org/news/20110220150657.htm

tatosian| 2.20.11 @ 7:11PM

Egyptian convicted of killing Copts to hang
http://213.158.162.45/~egyptia.....e=Egyptian convicted of killing Copts to hang

Egypt's Copts march to demand a secular state
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/e.....ular-state

Marc Jeric| 2.22.11 @ 4:20AM

All these "revolutions" in Arab countries are fomented by Muslim Brotherhood, a murderous bunch of Muslims bent on the world domination. They are amply supported by our Community Organizer-in-Chief Abu Hussein al-Mombassa, by his Secretary of State (she of the "politics of meaning"), by the professoriate in our universities, by our Main Stream Media, and, of course, by the modern-day 5th column of Muslim associations all across the country.

simon templar| 2.23.11 @ 2:16AM

Arab spring? Well, here is a clue. March will come in like a pro-democracy movement and go out like another Islamic Terrorist State.

Yiwen| 2.24.11 @ 9:46AM

Thanks for this very thorough report. I hope many people will read it and start undestand what is really going on in North Africa in particular and in whole Africa in general.
The book from Ferhat Mehenni " le siecle identitaire" is a recommended reading. A pity that it is only for those who understand french.

Note: The french defeated Kabylia only in 1857, and put it to the rest of the regions under the common name of Algeria. The French were the first ones who denied the Kabyle culture and language in that they put a common label to this newly founded Algeria; The "Muslim and arabic" country. With time, North Africa became Maghreb ( arabic for West), then the Arab Maghreb (The regimes arabising and islamizing more and more).
Consider this famous sentence from Kateb Yacine:" if Algeria is arabic, why arabize it? If Algeria is not arabic, why arabize it?".