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Health Care, Israeli-Style
August 9, 2012 | 58 comments
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My ‘Israeli’ Roots
July 31, 2012 | 12 comments
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Kicking the Palestinian Addiction
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Israel’s Egypt Conundrum
April 11, 2012 | 62 comments
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Report From an ‘Asymmetrical’ War
March 13, 2012 | 76 comments
At Large
Obama’s Fantasies, Egyptian Reality
How magnificent will Omar Suleiman turn out to be?
One can take heart from this week’s Wikileaks revelations about how intensely Omar Suleiman, Egypt’s new vice-president and former intelligence chief, dislikes both homegrown Egyptian and Iranian Islamists.
Regarding the domestic Muslim Brotherhood, Suleiman in 2006 told FBI director Robert Mueller that they had spawned “11 different Islamist extremist organizations” and that “the principal danger…was [their] exploitation of religion to influence and mobilize the public.”
As for Iran, in 2007 and 2008 Suleiman called its regime “devils” and “a significant threat to Egypt” and said “Iran is supporting Jihad and spoiling peace, and has supported extremists in Egypt previously. If they were to support the Muslim Brotherhood this would make them ‘our enemy.’”
Less heartening, though, is the fact that Suleiman already met with the banned Brotherhood, along with other groups, over the weekend and offered them a package of concessions — which they appear to have turned down contemptuously.
A swift, alarming capitulation by Suleiman and his boss Hosni Mubarak, or a deft handling of the situation aimed at keeping the Islamists at bay? Though it is hard to know, given Suleiman’s background as an unsentimental Middle Eastern intelligence chief, the latter seems more likely.
Also on the — relatively — heartening side of the ledger is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s warning on Monday against forcing Mubarak out while stressing the need for an “orderly transition.” It seems a slight improvement over her boss, President Barack Obama, taking an “instant-democracy” line on Egypt on Sunday and downplaying the threat that the Brotherhood poses.
One place where no one is taking chances is Israel, where Suleiman has been a frequent visitor to meet with top officials, and where the Mubarak regime’s three-decade adherence to nonbelligerence with Israel — enhanced more recently by tacit strategic cooperation — is understood across the political spectrum as the priceless asset for stability that it is.
According to the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, Israel is supposed to import a considerable share of its natural gas from Egypt. On Saturday an Egyptian gas terminal in the Sinai blew up, sparking a massive blaze that could only be stopped by shutting off the gas flow to both Israel and Jordan.
Although Egypt’s natural gas company blamed the fire on a gas leak, the Jerusalem Post cites “local officials” in Israel as saying saboteurs — almost certainly Islamist terrorists exploiting the chaos in Egypt — were responsible.
The incident concentrated minds wonderfully, prompting calls to speed up development of gas fields recently discovered off Israel’s coast. One parliamentarian warned that “Israel’s energy economy must take into account a scenario of no gas deliveries from Egypt.”
No doubt, Israel’s concerns about what is happening in Egypt go well beyond a cutoff of gas supplies. It is one thing to look from afar and see “democracy protesters” in the streets of Cairo, a noble cause to be supported.
It is another thing, though, to live in this region and be exposed to its harshness all the time. Israelis also remember the democracy protesters — in that case, unquestionably unified and authentic — in Lebanon in 2006, and the Bush administration’s insistence that same year on holding elections in the Palestinian territories. Israelis know that Lebanon is now run by Hezbollah and Gaza by Hamas, and that in both cases a regional dynamic favoring Islamism prevailed over good — whether local or foreign — intentions.
The repression used by a regime like Mubarak’s is not pretty, but no worse than that used by the Shah’s regime in Iran before — to the cheers of Western leftists including President Jimmy Carter — it was replaced by the much worse reign of the ayatollahs. Those whose moral sensibilities are offended by Omar Suleiman need to have a look at Muhammad Badi, the Muslim Brotherhood leader who, as noted by Israeli Middle East scholar Barry Rubin, “has endorsed anti-American Jihad and pretty much every element in the al-Qaida ideology book.”
Obama’s talk of a pluralist democracy sprouting in Egypt — by September at the latest — ignores the reality of a largely illiterate populace lacking democratic institutions, where the Muslim Brotherhood forms the only strong, organized opposition to the regime in part because of its great appeal to that intensely religious populace. Impulsively backing the “protesters,” nudging Mubarak-Suleiman out whether roughly or more gently, means reigniting Israeli-Egyptian conflict and handing a huge victory to the radical forces in the region.
About the Author
P. David Hornik is a writer and translator in Beersheva, Israel, blogging at PDavidHornik.typepad.com.
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PCC| 2.8.11 @ 6:23AM
So the argument is that 80 million Egyptians must endure endless repression for the sake of Israel's peace of mind? That democracy in Egypt in any form is a threat to Israel, and on that basis should be opposed? Or that the so-called "stability" in the region rests on corrupt dictatorships that are at risk of being swept away in less than a fortnight?
I can't see how these arguments favour Israel's or the U.S.' long-term interests, security and otherwise, in the region.
More imagination, please.
Mimi| 2.8.11 @ 8:40AM
When I see a cry from the streets of Egypt for....Religious freedom, non-violent PLAN, Liberty and Freedom for all..Justice..on and on my suspicians will fade...Now all you see is rabble rousers throwing rocks. For now a promise of change in thrust forward for FREEDOM a quiet organized, transition by present government to maintain a civil society is called for. A violent new Islamist theocracy would be a TRAGEDY. 80 million have not spoken only a small percentage are rioting....not at all a peaceful crowd...ie Tea Party with baby carraiges and home-made signs, children and older folks protesting peacefully.
Ken (Old Texican)| 2.8.11 @ 9:16AM
PCC,
I don't have to use my imagination. I was on the ground in Iran when the Shah fell. Within a week, the bloodbath began.
You are singing kumbayah in the midst of an imminent holocaust, not only against the Jews, but of the Coptic Christians, and even quiet Muslims that just want a better life for their kids.
The Muslim Brotherhood cancer already has metastasized world wide. They even have cancer cells all across the US preaching hate and "Grand Jihad" here.
The best estimates of the Brotherhood % in Egypt range from 25% to 30% of the population.
That is 20 MILLION jihadists, knot-head!
Please, use your own imagination.
to quote myself: Today, we are going to talk about "last ditches". Some very bright guy in the mists of history stated "You must not be thinking about what your "opposition" might do, but what they can do"!
Dan Hirsch| 2.8.11 @ 9:17AM
PCC;
You fail to recall that in the Soviet Union they had 'democracy,' same thing in Nazi Germany. Democracy is not the deus ex machina that will end "repression." (What repression? Where are the citizens in wood chippers, where are stonings, where are the burkas?)
In Egypt it appears that there is no real organization to replace the Mubarak government other than the Muslim Brotherhood.
I am reminded of the story of V. Lenin's panic at finding himself outside of Russia when the street riots broke out in St. Petersburg at the realization of Russian defeat in the First World War and subsequent food riots. Fortunately for Lenin, and unfortunately for the tens of millions of Russians and their fellow comrades later slaughtered by Lenin, Stalin, et al., VI managed to get to the riots on time and steal power from the Czar (Tsar) under the guise of 'power to the masses' and 'the end of repression'. The Communists did end repression; they replaced it with mass murder and societal slavery.
Don't you people ever learn?
Don't tread on me!
PCC| 2.8.11 @ 2:27PM
It seems my agonistes are saying that the Egyptians are unprepared and undeserving of the civic and political freedoms Americans and others enjoy as a birthright.
Furthermore, they do not address the point that repressive regimes are themselves fundamentally destabilising.
Well, I guess that's what makes it a horse race.
skip| 2.8.11 @ 7:20PM
Nations get the government they deserve, including America.
Alan Brooks| 2.9.11 @ 12:07AM
As for Iran, in 2007 and 2008 Suleiman called its regime "devils" and "a significant threat to Egypt" and said "Iran is supporting Jihad and spoiling peace, and has supported extremists in Egypt previously. If they were to support the Muslim Brotherhood this would make them 'our enemy.'"
Welcome to the future.
Appleby| 2.8.11 @ 7:00AM
My late Daddy, who was of Jewish heritage, used to say that if we knew the Great Flood was coming next year, the Christians would pray for a miracle and the Jews would start learning how to live under water.
Apparently this is still true.
PCC| 2.8.11 @ 7:03AM
The Chinese would build a boat.
Clint| 2.8.11 @ 9:52AM
Americans would wax their surf boards.
coal carrier| 2.8.11 @ 5:23PM
And the progressives will tax it.
Alan Brooks| 2.9.11 @ 12:09AM
Rich Lowry would nominate Jeb Bush to build the Ark.
Janelle| 3.24.11 @ 5:56AM
And you and the commenters above are funny, Alan.
martin j smith| 2.8.11 @ 9:34AM
FCC is the Federal Communication Comission
That said: We in this country have to be very sober about outcomes in Egypt and other middle-eastern nations. I stand with the pessimists but I willing to accept hope if it really is there. There are too many negative forces ( to Democracy in that region ) and even in our own country as well. We too should look into the mirror ourselves.
Glen Beck. He and other have warned us about various persons in our nation and abroad. George Soros, the Muslim Brother Hood, ElBaradei
Hamas Hizbollah. The region is not a happy. Best position: get as much on the ground intelligence as possible. I will bet Israeli intelligence is hard at work on the ground in many countries of the region including Egypt. And If I were Netenyahu--I would NOT tell Obama
anything that could compromise Israel's security.
That is how bad it is.
Michael L. Hauschild| 2.8.11 @ 10:00AM
The Army runs Egypt.
The Army wants Suleiman.
The Army wants stuff.
We have stuff.
The leverage for democracy will need diplomacy and the barter is not how vehement the demonstrations, but how much stuff we are willing to part with. The Middle East is like most of the world, you tip before you dine and a meal of some form of democracy is far more palatable than a meal of Sharia Law.
The people of Egypt are relatively westernized and fully understand that the Muslim Brotherhood's idea of stuff is men whipping women with car antennas and fifth century martyrism.
Stan REdmond| 2.8.11 @ 10:35AM
Democracy sounds all warm and fuzzy. 99% of North Koreans vote for kim Jong Il. 99% of Iraqis voted for Saddam. 99% of Germans voted for Hitler. Obama is a fool if he thinks rock throwing neanderthals with English signs showing Star of Davids "x"ed out over Mubarik's face are going to peacfully transition to a stable government. One need look no further than Gen. Musherif leaving Pakistan. Dictatorships are not good but in a religious society stuck in the 700's it's as good as it gets (Until Islam is reformed).
Goodbye Suez canal and hello to the new southern front in Israel.
We aren't even allowed to vote for our own president in the USA.
Ken (Old Texican)| 2.8.11 @ 10:37AM
Stan,
a pretty darned good summation.
John II| 2.8.11 @ 1:36PM
It seems as if, since the end of World War II, when America emerged as the reluctant premier world power, we've always been stuck between a rock and a somewhat spongy hard spot. And at least since the farcical Suez Crisis of 1956-57, we've seen a political division in America between two types of self-styled "realists" in foreign affairs.
Given that about three-quarters of the world's 200-odd nations are stubbornly corrupt and undemocratic and often vicious to boot, one brand of "realism" among the foreign-policy geeks is that we should "engage" the tyrants who are friendly toward us; the other (chic) brand is that we should "engage" the tyrants who want to destroy us.
Both brands are fraught with moral dangers, but the second (chic) brand is fraught with an attendant corruption and imbecility that is uniquely self-destructive. There is no clearer indication of the character of this second pattern than the obvious contempt felt by the chic types (read: the Obama administration, all liberal Democrats, and certain types of Arab-besotted Republicans) toward Israel.
In other words, the chic habit of "engaging" America's enemies abrades the moral sense (as all bad habits do), so that those addicted to the habit wind up despising not only friendly tyrants but also a tiny nation of democratic constitution and due process--solely because that nation is deemed to be a political inconvenience. A comment dropped by the French foreign minister a few years ago sums up the chic view, to the effect that Israel is "that shitty little entity."
Yet even her bitterest enemies admit that Israel has the best and most reliable intelligence apparatus in the world, and Prime Minister Netanyahu recently summed up three possible scenarios consequent to the current Egyptian unrest, two of them disastrous for the West.
Physical survival tends to concentrate the mind that way, and it looks as if the fuse to the Middle East powder keg has been lit. In a oddly Biblical sense, Israel is the canary in the mine-shaft. If she is snuffed out, the West is finished.
VBMax| 2.8.11 @ 8:18PM
Excellent analysis!
cicero| 2.8.11 @ 2:16PM
Democracy doesn't depend on the peoples' ability to vote someone into office. Rather is is their ability to vote someone out of office. Lenin seized the power from a duly elected government - the Kerensky duma. The problem came when no one could vote Lenin\Stalin out. America's most significant election wasn't in electing Washington, but in unelecting Adams. Adams was the author of the alien and sedition acts, recall. The best thing that can happen in Egypt would be for Mubarek to finish his term, and someone not named Mubarek voted in in a regularly scheduled, fair election. To allow the so called "street" to overthrow an elected government calls for election by oveerthrow, rather than by popular vote. The mobs in the street are only that - mobs. We saw that old scene on college campuses here in the 60s. Our colleges were captured by the left, and have never gotten back to anything close to orderly give and take since. The same went with Nazi Germany, Iran, ect.
The US should encourage free election to take place when scheduled; try to encourage them to be fair and open; then accept and recognize the results. If the elections result in rulers that are inimical to our interests, they are on their own. When they fail, we should then incourage open and fair elections . . .
Jack in the Midwest| 2.9.11 @ 11:35AM
What a pile of hooey! 80 million egyptians are supposed to live in a police state forever, just because the Israeli's want to mistreat their Palistinian subjects
Sam Levi| 2.10.11 @ 10:44AM
And you would want to treat those who want to kill you with love and hugs? Grow up.
Bee Free| 2.10.11 @ 9:31PM
---Putting aside the latest, by now no doubt manipulated,
CFR/Trilateral 'reveolution'.
"When an ideal, ANY ideal, holds the
levers of REAL power ---you get PURE EVIL."
D H Lawrence
Essays
1919
'FREE trade', and certainly eugenics and Globalism ARE IDEALS.
-YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED-
Christian Louboutin | 6.23.11 @ 6:04AM
As for Iran, in 2007 and 2008 Suleiman called its regime "devils" and "a significant threat to Egypt" and said "Iran is supporting Jihad and spoiling peace, and has supported extremists in Egypt previously. If they were to support the Muslim Brotherhood this would make them 'our enemy.'"
Reebok | 8.11.11 @ 4:05AM
is good
العاب | 4.11.12 @ 4:37PM
is good
thank you