No country finds itself at greater unease with the
developments in Egypt than Israel, and for good reason.
It isn’t that Israel opposes the genuine democratic
aspirations of the Egyptian people. If a new government in a
post-Mubarak Egypt clearly stated it planned to maintain peaceful
relations with the Jewish State, there would be no problem. But
when Israel purportedly
gave its blessing for the Egyptian military
to mobilize in Sinai, you know it’s very worried. Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu
called these developments a “tremendous
threat.”
Let us not forget that there was a time not so long ago
when Egypt was Israel’s arch enemy. In Israel’s first quarter
century as a state it fought four wars with Egypt. The sight of
Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat shaking hands along with Jimmy
Carter was surely as inconceivable as the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Egypt would be expelled from the Arab League for its rapprochement
with Israel and Sadat would pay for peace with his life. Who in
1978 could have imagined that Israel and Egypt would be at peace
with each other longer than they had been adversaries?
Now I certainly don’t want to convey the impression Israel
and Egypt are bosom buddies — far from it. When I visited Israel
during the summer of 1988, Egypt was a frequent topic of discussion
as the tenth anniversary of Begin and Sadat’s handshake was
forthcoming. The consensus was, “Israel and Egypt are at peace. But
it’s a cold peace.”
Over the years, the Mubarak regime has tolerated
anti-Semitic sentiment as when Egyptian state television
broadcast a 41-part mini-series on The
Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion throughout Egypt and
the Arab world in 2002. In May 2008,
Farouk Hosny, who has served as Egypt’s
Minister of Culture since 1987, said he “would burn Israeli books
in Egyptian libraries.” These comments would later cost Hosni his
opportunity to become Director-General of the United Nations
Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). When
Hosny came up short in his bid he
blamed his loss on “a group of the world’s
Jews.” Earlier this month, Abdallah Al-Ash’al, a former Egyptian
Deputy Foreign Minister, blamed
Mossad for inciting December’s Alexandria church
bombing.
Yet for all the public hostility in
Egypt towards the Jewish State and Jews in general, Mubarak has
steadfastly maintained peace with Israel. Indeed, the two nations
have common security interests. While much of the world was busy
condemning Israel for its blockade of Gaza, Egypt was also
blockading the Hamas run territory. It may be a cold peace but it’s
still peace.
Now there is no denying that Hosni Mubarak has governed
Egypt in an autocratic, dictatorial manner and has only himself to
blame for the current state of affairs. Yet for all his faults and
shortcomings, Mubarak is the devil Israel (and for that matter the
United States) knows. Of course, Mubarak is 82 years old and will
not stay in power forever. But there is every reason to believe
that if Mubarak loses his grip on power it will not bode well for
Israel.
It appears that both secular and Muslim opposition forces
are coalescing around Mohammed ElBaradei, the former head of the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In his capacity with the
IAEA, ElBaradei became known for his kid glove treatment of Iran.
In fact, in a joint press conference with Iran’s then Atomic Energy
Agency chief Ali Akbar Salehi (who is now Foreign Minister) in
October 2009, ElBaradei
said, “Israel is the number one threat to
the Middle East.” In April 2010, ElBaradei expressed his
support
for “Palestinian resistance.” This is nothing more than
parlance for acts of terrorism.
Of course, there are the likes of
Stephen Walt, the noted anti-Israel
academic, who naturally downplays the adverse consequences of a
sudden change of government in Egypt for Israel:
For starters, a post-Mubarak government is unlikely to
tear up the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, because such a move
would put it immediately at odds with the United States and Europe
and bring Cairo few tangible benefits. Although ordinary Egyptians
do feel strong sympathy for the Palestinians, the primary concern
of those now marching in the streets is domestic affairs, not
foreign policy.
I am not sure what makes Walt think a post-Mubarak Egypt,
especially one where the Muslim Brotherhood plays a role, will give
a damn about what the Obama Administration or the EU might think of
its actions any more than Iran does. Besides, what happens if a new
regime in Egypt, whether led by ElBaradei or someone else, cannot
redress the primary concerns of those now marching in the streets
any better than Mubarak? By Walt’s own admission, ordinary
Egyptians do feel strong sympathy for the Palestinians. Should a
new Egyptian government be unable to address the domestic concerns
of it populace, what card is it likely to play? Well, Muhammad
Ghannem, a leading spokesperson
for the Muslim Brotherhood in the U.K., says
the people of Egypt “should be prepared for war against
Israel.”
This, of course, would be Israel’s worst nightmare. Now
some might argue that Egypt is no match for Israel militarily. But
Israelis are more likely to remember the IDF being unable to defeat
Hezbollah in Lebanon less than five years ago than they are to
remember the triumph of the Six Day War. The prospect of another
war with Egypt is complicated considerably by a regime in Iran
(along with its surrogates in Syria and Lebanon) bent on Israel’s
annihilation. And what if the kind of protests we’re seeing in
Egypt spread to Jordan in any meaningful way? The Muslim world
could very well do to Israel what it was unable to do in
1967.
