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With the Tea Partiers
Getting Below the Surface
The real story of the 2010 elections, in preparation for 2012.
We of course know that the November 2, 2010, elections were historical on many different levels. The Republican gains of 63 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate dwarf the Republican Revolution of 1994 and double the historical average gains in the Senate for a party out of power. These gains were made despite a cash-strapped Republican National Committee (RNC), strategic decisions by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) to spend $8 million in the long-shot California Senate race instead of Washington and Colorado, and the fact that the RNC, NRSC, and National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) had a zero ground game.
But what the November midterm elections did do was confirm and destroy some of the most talked-about conventional wisdom about the so-called Tea Party movement, as well as raise some warning flags for Republicans moving into the 2012 election cycle.
Tea Party activists revealed themselves to be, if not completely organized, at the very least politically pragmatic, engaged, and ready to press their agenda on the local, state, and federal level well after Election Day. How the relationship between the Tea Party movement and establishment Republicans will develop is going to be one of the most closely watched storylines of the next year. But if you dig deeper into what took place on Election Day, you notice some incredible missed opportunities for the Tea Party and Republicans to build on. And if Republicans expect to make a greater impact in 2012, those missed opportunities will have to be addressed.
The gains of November extend beyond the achievements at the federal level and are staggering in their implications. Consider for a moment the gubernatorial races in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida — all won by Republican governors in a redistricting year leading up to the 2012 presidential elections. But go past the gubernatorial races: in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Republicans won the secretary of state races, despite George Soros’s S.O.S. project, and in Florida, Republicans retained that position. Again, having Republican secretaries of states in charge of the elections in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will have considerable implications for 2012. With the governorships, secretaries of state, and state legislatures firmly in Republican hands in the three most important battleground states, Obama’s path back to the White House in 2012 did not get any easier.
If you go deeper into the state-level elections, you see Republicans ran roughshod over the Democrats. On November 1, according to Ballotpedia.org, Democrats had a 783-member advantage over Republicans. On November 3, Republicans held a 523-member advantage, a swing of more than 1,300 seats. Across the country, conservatives and Republicans saw historic results: Republicans will hold the Minnesota state for the first time in history, the Alabama legislature for the first time since Reconstruction, and the North Carolina legislature for the first time since 1870. In Maine, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, states that Obama won definitively in 2008, Republicans won control of both the state senate and house chambers. And those changes were not by one or two seats: in the Wisconsin state assembly, Democrats had a 52-46 advantage before Election Night. After the dust settled, Republicans now hold a 60-38 advantage. Even in states where Republicans did not gain the majority, they made significant gains: before the elections, Republicans in the Arkansas state house held only 25 seats of 100. Now they hold 45, with serious talk of some Democrats switching parties.
With 11 congressional districts to be reapportioned before 2012, the state legislative races will impact the federal level. Consider Texas, which stands to gain four congressional seats in 2012. Before Election Night, Republicans held a slim two-seat advantage in the Texas house. Now Republicans have a 99-51 advantage in the house, 19-12 in the senate, and hold the governor’s mansion, enough of a margin to ensure reapportionment in favor of a Republicans should go more smoothly than in previous attempts.
These election results will have a long-term impact beyond redistricting and presidential races. Consider that roughly 70 percent of the 111th Congress began their careers at the state and local level. Some of our future congressional leaders will come from the state legislative victories of November 2.
THERE WERE MISSED opportunities. The easy ones to highlight are the U.S. Senate races in Colorado and Nevada and even Washington. (I’m sorry, Delaware was not a lost opportunity; Christine O’Donnell was a deeply flawed candidate, but Mike Castle would have lost the race as well.) Poorly run campaigns (Nevada), combined with mismanaged funds (NRSC) and a nonexistent ground game, caused many of the GOP Senate candidates to underperform by two to four points from their last pre-election poll numbers and final results.
What was also missed amid the euphoria and the staggering state-level gains is that more than 26 percent of incumbent state legislators, or nearly 1,300, were not challenged in the general election. In what was generally viewed as a wave election, it makes one wonder what could have happened had more state legislative candidates been groomed to run.
Much of the blame for a lack of contested races on the state level lies with Republican state parties. But this is where a happy by-product of the so-called “Tea Party” movement comes in: a growing network of grassroots conservative organizations not aligned with the Republican Party that are recruiting, training, and running candidates on the local and state levels, and preparing for the 2012 election cycle. These organizations are spreading the word about what is increasingly being called “constitutional conservatism,” and news of what these organizations are undertaking and how they undertake their activities is what this column will be about moving forward.
About the Author
Ned Ryun is the founder and president of American Majority, a political training institution. His “With the Tea Partiers” column run each month in the The American Spectator’s print edition. You can follow him on Twitter @nedryun.
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MikeD| 12.30.10 @ 7:57AM
I always find it interesting that, regardless of what polls show, demoncraps ALWAYS manage to discover just enough votes in somebody's trunk, or back room to win an election that required an almost mathematically impossible turnaround in 24 to 36 hours. Democrats have no moral compunctions about vote fraud, outright vote theft, and anything else that will get them victory in tight races. See Washington state 2004, 2008, and 2010; Minnesota 2008, and Illinois any year you can pick. Joe Kennedy bragged that the election in Illinois was so close in 1960 that he didn't think he needed to by any more voted than needed. One vote was as good as a landslide!
There is a great book titled something like :"If It's Not Close, They Can't Steal It." (Or, how to stop democrats from hijacking the democratic process.) The only way we got the gains we did was that there simply were not sufficient numbers of dems, union thugs, community organizers, welfare recipients, etc... to pull it off this year. But, while the Republicans and the Tea Party are building their grassroots organizations, the dems are just figuring out better ways to steal elections. As "Uncle Joe" Stalin, FDR's favorite guy said, "It's not who got more votes; it's who counted the votes that determines winners". (I quoted it, but I'm sure it is a paraphrase. I just hope I attributed it correctly since it sounds more like something harriet screid or nancipoo peloshit would say.)
Never trust any democrat to take the high road; they have proved way too many times that they will do anything to win; and then just scream to their buddies in the media that the mean Republicans are attacking them. And yet, they are such wonderful people...
Dave | 12.30.10 @ 5:30PM
I keep hearing and reading statements from politicos high and low saying -- "There's still time. Don't worry. We have a plan." I guess they mean "Still enough time to get our act ready for prime time." Well, as far as haivng "enough time" ... it might all depend on what kind of timepiece they've been going by. From my vantage point here in the cheap seats, these guys are still wearin' one of those 60 year old *Timex wrist watches that John Cameron Swayze used to toss over the falls of Niagara. (*Take a lickin' and keeps on tickin')
Let's hope our new, soon-to-be-arriving posse is, at least, wearing a waterproof Seiko.
See, I don't think we really have all that much time left. Do you?
tic-tic-tic ...
Maybe ...
Thing is ... this scurrent bunch of "Oh,yeah ... what are you gonna doaboutits? currently running agenda item after agenda item through the mill and bypassing most of the House and Senate by way of ... executive orders. Orders that in many cases are clearing .. at odds with the Constitution. But then again -- the "Oh yeah, what are you gonna doaboutits? are are in charge of that patch of real estate called 1600. In the end, who know how much damage this mob of Alinskyites will do before a new sherriff comes to town.
I'm afraid , too much damage.
Meanwhile, this current Republican clown college seems to be displaying no more talent than the same ol' -- "we want to be faaair with the president and .. compromise." Geezus, these weepy eyed Boehernites are a big part of the reason this plot of real estate called the U.S. of A. is rapidly sliding down into that same cesspool the states of New York, California and too many others to list here ... are already in.
All of the above ... and not a function pair of stones in the bunch. Then again, there may be a solid pair riding over the ridge -- but by the time he or she gets into Dodge, Chester, Kitty and Doc may already be taking their dirt naps.
Guess we'll just have to see. Won't we?
Nan| 1.4.11 @ 2:22PM
well put. I'm seeing the cracking of a spine already in Issa softening down his " most corrupt president" remark.
nate| 1.5.11 @ 2:52PM
im sittin on my porch , loading them up, im not too worried cause ill shoot back
Clint| 12.30.10 @ 8:08AM
Example of an upcoming January Tea Party Meeting in suburban collar counties around Philadelphia.
"In these suburban Philadelphia counties, there continues to be a large number of Republican committee seats that are empty.. In Chester County alone, there are 60 such seats that need to be filled, with a similar number in Montgomery County. I don’t know about Delaware, Berks or Bucks Counties but I suspect they’re in the same boat. Outside of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, these are the most populated areas of our state, and how they vote means a lot.
Empty committee seats means weakness. It means we lack people who can make things happen. It means we lack people who actually choose the next candidates. And it means we could again end up back in the loser’s column on forthcoming election days.
At this meeting, you’ll listen as a panel of four or five committee people discuss how they came to be committee men or women, what the job requirements are, and why you yourself should consider becoming a committee person. And if not yourself, how you can do some talent spotting for these jobs."
NVA Patriot| 12.30.10 @ 8:47AM
Similar things are happening in VA. We're filling the Repub Party committee chairs that are empty or replacing RINOs who currently hold those chairs.
One thing we have found in NVA is that candidate and Party activity training and knowledge is limited. We're organizaing training programs for candidates and party volunteers so we don't relearn hard lessons. We missed taking Connely out by 1000 votes in NVA - that's a poor ground game and petty party politics working against us.
Our goal in training is to make sure that the conservatives and Republicans always focus on the greater problem: Progrssivism and statism. We must always work to defeat progressivism and statism - EVERYTHING else is second.
loulou| 12.30.10 @ 9:19AM
Hasn't the VA GOP been controlled by RINOs? Which is why it's been impotent and useless?
We need to fight both RINOs and liberals.
Ted| 12.31.10 @ 4:29PM
With apologies to Bugs Bunny, a RINO is just a liberal in cheap clothing....
Dale Cord| 12.30.10 @ 9:49AM
2011 a year that will live in Infamy. Future school history books will read: The year the Muslims conquered the United States of America. With not so much as a whimper from its cowardly military leaders, and name calling armchair patriots. Disgraceful,Shameful there are no words to adequately describe her defeat. As the 300 Spartans strength and ingenuity conquered all of those who challenged them, so a small band of renegades conquered the greatest country the world has known. When Davids rock slued Goliath. It also foretold a warning. "The bigger they are,the harder they Fall." Our country lost its battle of survival when it became intoxicated with its deceptive mentality, that it did not need its Creator anymore, and wisdom no longer was apart of its citizens physiology to survive.
Dan Hirsch| 12.30.10 @ 10:02AM
What's the frequency, Dale?
Brian Mc| 12.30.10 @ 10:01AM
Dale,
It is very hard to follow the lucidity of your thought process due to the amount of grammatical errors in your post. Please, slow down, take your time...next time!
Dale Cord| 12.30.10 @ 12:18PM
It is very hard to read any ones post, or for that matter comprehend it, and then retain it in the brain,if all anybody who reads is looking for just the mistakes in a comment or book etc,etc. Like most who criticize the messenger for (grammatical errors) they never learn or get the message. Brian, you might try to take a course in reading and not over thinking a prophecy for 2011 America! I don't blame you,it's our flawed educational system that's to blame since our government gained control of it through bribery years ago.Brian I have found also that Liberals in years gone by like to trick people, by taking their focus off of an important subject that could hurt their agendas, by commenting on spelling and other trivial errors, Its a cheap trick but it works sometimes on the weak minded.
Brian Mc| 12.30.10 @ 8:48PM
Thanks for the rebuttal, Dale. It was a pleasure getting all that cleared up and achieving a better grasp of your thought processes.
By the way, I went to private school, thank God. Your ability to perceive this and your comprehension of my political leanings proves you're the better man. Happy New Year...
Oldefarte| 12.30.10 @ 10:44AM
In order to save our nation from destruction and bankruptcy, I implore each and ever reader of this to duplicate my 11/2/10 activity. For the first time in my substantial lifetime, I voted for THE ENTIRE REPUBLICAN TICKET ON MY VOTING BALLOT. If minorities and vote for a minority candidate simply because he is the same minority as the voter; if same sex voters can vote for candidates who pander to their lifestyle; if ethnic immigrants can vote for candidates who possess the same ethnic personae as themselves; etc, then by God the remainder of us [who are conservative, moderate and sane] can and should vote for our own ENTIRE REPUBLICAN TICKET. If and when these elected Republicans prove to be problematic, then the time will be for us to replace them with other Republicans who are not so. The Democrats are simply RADICALS, EXTREMISTS, DOMESTIC-TERRORISTS, AND MORONS; and as such should not be entrusted with our hard-earned tax dollars for their demented spending purposes!!!!!!!!!!
Dale Cord| 12.30.10 @ 9:26PM
How soon we forget when the Speaker of the House was Newt Gingrich and his failed Contract with America fiasco,while under the illegitimate election of George Bush. These two parties have been a thorn in the side of America far to long. Their corruption has no limits.
Oldefarte| 12.31.10 @ 11:25AM
Newt's and W's policies were FAILURES only in the sense that they were outvoted by the CORRUPTION of Clinton and the Democrats in congress. All Republican administrations [national, state and local] have been failures as well in having to overcome the socialistic, redistributive policies of Democrats effecting redistribution for vote obtaining purposes [THE....INDIGENTS, GIVE ME YOUR VOTES AND I'LL PROVIDE WELFARE GOVERNMENTAL BENEFITS TO YOU IN RETURN SYNDROME]. Reagan, W and Newt etc all had to deal with same and came up short against the welfare state legislative powers of Democrats. This country has always [and progressively] been run by welfare state Democrats who rob from the so called 'rich' [translation=anyone with a job and income]to give to their indigent constituents. The only FAILURES were the American people/taxpayers who STUPIDLY believe the brainwashing propaganda pur foth by the MSM and elect these Arkansas hillbillies and Chicago domestic terrorists [with Harvard law degrees] that destroy this nation with their policies. I and none of use FORGET [as evidenced by 11/2/10]!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Margie| 12.31.10 @ 12:58PM
Well said, OldeFarte. Can always count on you to tell it like it is.
Happy New Year, sir.
The Quadfather| 1.3.11 @ 1:16AM
Hey Dale:
I have challenged people many times who claim that George Bush was not legitimately elected. This is simply not true, it was the other way around. Gore tried to steal the election from Bush. That's what Democrats do! Some newspaper, I don't recall which one, sent people down to Florida to count those votes after the matter had been settled by the court, and certified. After the counting was done, they just slinked away. Do you think that they would have done that if the count was in favor of Al Gore? No, it would have been nationwide news, and there would have been a major push to set things right.
Dale Cord| 1.3.11 @ 9:40AM
The vote count in Florida determined the outcome of the Presidential election that year,and guess who was Governor of that state?The wool can be pulled over many eyes,when they give the benefit of doubt to crooked politicians. Enough said!
Paul Lau| 1.5.11 @ 9:32PM
Dale;
Maybe you missed the news about 8 years ago. The NY Times commissioned a team to count the votes and they found that Bush did indeed win. Obviously, this finding didn't suit the NY Times so they buried it. Who would think??
Leslie Graves | 12.30.10 @ 11:20AM
For interested readers, here's a comprehensive analysis of which state legislative incumbents had no challenges at all in 2010, either in the primary or the general election:
http://www.ballotpedia.org/wik....._elections
gibbs| 12.30.10 @ 11:21AM
Your comments regarding the Tea Party's ability to be politically pragmatic is mind boggling. Equally farcical is your statement that Mike Castle would have lost.
You lose all credibility with dingbat statements like these.
Clint| 12.30.10 @ 12:35PM
We Tea Party Rebels are seating 45 Tea Party Candidates in The House & The Senate on January 3rd,2011.
That was The First Wave.
The Second Wave comes in 2012, first in The Primaries & then in The General Elections.
Clinton Lovell| 12.31.10 @ 6:14PM
From your lips to God's ear, Clint.
yasin| 12.30.10 @ 11:47AM
Democrats did all the "dirty" tricks that they could do in 2010, but the Tea Party and the American people fended off their efforts, thus gave thumbs up to the conservative agenda: limited government, pro-growth and pro-business, along with a constitutionalists government which would eventually kill the Obamacare, cap-and-tax, and his outrageous spending spree. Thanks to the conservatives who put Republicans in charge and threw out Democrats who came too close to destroy America for good. Finally, Obama lost and the American people won.
PattyMor| 12.30.10 @ 12:45PM
Don't pat yourself on your back too soon. There were a substantial number of RepubRats who voted with the Dems with START, DADT, and the "food safety" bill. Of the three, the most dangerous is the food safety bill. I don't know about you, but putting my food under federal control makes me think of the Russians starving the population in order to gain total control.
Clinton Lovell| 12.31.10 @ 6:16PM
Do you know what I call that PattyMor? A target-rich environment. We will get to each and every single one of them. There are those who think they are far enough away from their next primary contest that we will forget their treachery. I say they have set the table for their own Last Supper.
Joe Oliva| 12.30.10 @ 12:46PM
If you are looking for primary candidates to take on these unchallenged lifetime politicians, check out the "Get Out Of Our House" (GOOOH.COM) website. There is a plan in place, we simply need more folks to help get it going.
Perusha| 12.30.10 @ 12:53PM
Only when the “unknown unknowns” become the “known unknowns”---a la Donald Rumsfeld---about voting will we be able to make cogent analyses about the future of elections.
As David Frum and others have proven, with irrefutably researched evidence, there is STILL rampant electoral fraud.
For the vast majority of Americans, this remains an “unknown unknown”.
I KNOW it, and somehow this must become true of most people.
Wait for the time when a Bill O’Reilly, say, deigns to deal with the “known unknown” of the dangerous amount of voter fraud.
You can’t fix a problem that isn’t even noticed!
carol| 12.30.10 @ 2:36PM
the GOP in my county san mateo ca is a lost cause nightmare
the san mateo my liberty 9/12 tea party has a larger stronger group in two years then the gop ever had.
Icaucus is valuable as a vetting arm for conservative candidates. WE ARE NOT GOING BACK TO SLEEP. California is falling off the continent it is so far left but we support other candidates that are conservative.
Clinton Lovell| 12.31.10 @ 6:17PM
With people like carol behind them, the San Mateo Tea Party will no doubt stand fast and firm for America.
RINOphobe| 12.30.10 @ 3:45PM
Eternal vigilance must be our new watch word. One of, if not the greatest blessings of the last two years is that we learned what will happen if the Democrats, aka Socialist Progressives obtain power. Therefore, whilst in pursuit of further Congressional gains and the Presidency in 2012, we must not allow another takeover such as happenned in 2008. Vanguards of constitutional conservativism such as Tea Parties and other grassroots organizations must further expand their mission to both monitor newly elected TP favorites as well as keeping an eye open for the sappers who will invariably creep in and go the way of the recently re-elected Congressman from South Carolina who promised his supporters that he wouldn't vote for DADT, and then doing a complete 180, voted in favor of it. So, no rest for the weary is our slogan. Here in my own county, one which we all thought was staunchly conservative, our school board voted in favor of "Happy Holidays" to replace our old familiar and well-loved "Merry Christmas" as the official seasonal greeting for mentoring our young people.
Political correctness is dyed in to our social fabric on many fronts and must be purged, bleached,cleansed, or otherwise completely banished from our political dialogue, among other types of dialogue.
Now that we are off to a good start , we must not log for returning back to Egypt, regardless of the wilderness that lay ahead.
Remember God, and please keep praying for our Nation's restoration and revival, without which we fight in vain. You guys are great!
NJK| 12.30.10 @ 4:52PM
And to think some of the talking heads did nothing but blame the Tea Party for not taking everything. Not so much as a thank you. Well maybe a couple.
"constitutional conservatism,"
That phrase is music to my ears.
Amy| 12.30.10 @ 9:25PM
The 2010 elections didn’t go well for Mike Huckabee. He endorsed a front-runner in the Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary and the guy finished third. He endorsed the front-runner in the South Carolina gubernatorial primary and the guy finished fourth. His pick in Iowa finished second (The winner was endorsed by Palin/Romney and others).
Mike Huckabee’s record, taken as a whole, is unimpressive.
handbags | 12.30.10 @ 9:58PM
thanks your share!
PattyMor| 12.31.10 @ 8:39AM
Huckabee, while a very personable guy, is another liberal RepubuRat. He raised taxes and did a very disasterous prisoner release. Let him stay at Fox and make his money. NO run for Prez for this liberal.
martin j smith| 12.31.10 @ 10:56AM
While Tea Party Movement help win elections, Obama runs the nation thru executive orders. I think there is a need to do more aggressive work to expose and if possible block this. I am hoping that with Repub control of the House the tea Party contingent can do a bit investigations into
Obama governing by fiat and his shadow (y ) government such as his czars for example. And another area is the financial sources of various organizations such as those funded by George Soros.
Yosemeti Sam| 12.31.10 @ 12:05PM
" ... I'm sorry, Delaware was not a lost opportunity; Christine O'Donnell was a deeply flawed candidate...."
And what history-ladened Marxist-bent Democrat from Delaware without a FLAW will be sworn in along side the FLAWLESS Dingy and that Heinz man, et al, Democrats in the 112th?
What was deeply FLAWED was the Leftoid Media, aka PEN1, 'fairness' to both candidates in portraying their respective philosophical bents.
Parenthetically, who led the greasy GOP establishment charge against her - but that TURD Rove?
Yeah, right - deeply flawed woman.
Bite your tongue!
judester| 1.1.11 @ 10:32PM
Last year I was getting 4 - 6 letters a week begging for money from everyone running for office and some had the nads to scream emergency and they would like my donation of $500 - $1000 dollars. I already knew who I was going to vote for months before the election. I'm broke but they didn't think so. America was silent and it drove them crazy. Probably America was in the same shape as I was. 2012 is going to be the same. The politicians are going to be confused because we will be silent again because we're broke but we are not ignorant and we will remember what goes on and the voting will be our only ammo that you understand. Be careful what Bills you support because we will throw them at you come election time.
Judith| 1.2.11 @ 2:32AM
Much as I like Palin she is damaged goods and so is Huckabee. Not fair but so. We must run a winner. All this chat about principles and the litmus test for a conservative candidate is great but not realistic. We have to decide quick; do we want and desparately need a winner or do we push someone who can't pull in the indies? Mike Pence or maybe Paul Ryan or maybe some unknown but no one that history or the media has ruined.
I Survived Arlen Specter| 1.2.11 @ 3:31PM
Much as I like Palin she is damaged goods. Not fair but so because I say so. We must run A RINO. All this chat about principles and the litmus test for a conservative candidate is great, but why stand on principle when we can sell ourselves out yet again & continue to elect RINOs who will help the Democrats in Congress push more left wing legislation through that Americans don't want. We have to decide quick; do we want and desperately need a RINO or do we stand on our principles & force the indies to get off the fence & take a stand for something? Mike Pence or maybe Paul Ryan or maybe some unknown, but definitely someone that the media or The GOP ruling class like myself want to shove up conservatism's collective backsides because we know better than the voters do.
Say what you really mean Judith. Please don't sugar coat your distrust of principled conservatives ability to win an election.
youfamissim| 1.3.11 @ 8:42AM
A RINO "Stealth" candidate is the answer. The nation needs a committed one term President who will bunker down and commit to fixing government - it can be done. He will: Hire private sector liquidators for agency heads, Sell off the brick and mortar assets, Fire agency staffers, Make a list of spending cuts and refuse to compromise/budge, Destroy agency records, Veto all spending bills - Congress will not initially meet the President's demands. - BTW - most Gov't employees will not get paid during this period - will they show for work? The original cabinet positions are the only ones funded - the President agrees to sign appropriations for them. The New Prez will write Executive Orders ad nauseum.... Perhaps one year will pass before Congress gives in. The government will be in tatters. It takes years to build these monstrosities. The second State of the Union address is where the new President announces a return of tax dollars to the American People. He will outline all Un-Constitutional programs and agencies and refuse to fund them. (they'll be sold off anyway) He will hold a document of the program eliminations and and savings. The States will be directed to scrap all Un-Constitutional mandates. Laws that are unenforced are moot. The New President directs the DOJ to ignore Un-Constitutional edicts. The New President MAY be impeached and removed from office - but his work will continue to live on no matter what happens to him. The Congress will have all they need to reduce Government permanently. The public's response will tell us all if certain States need to leave the Union and re-confederate.