On the GOP side there are only 10 seats at risk and only Scott
Brown of Massachusetts (who has a campaign war chest of more than
$6 million to go with a high popularity rating) and Olympia Snowe
of Maine are running in blue states. Republicans in Maine point out
that this year Olympia Snowe campaigned hard — and sounded like a
Tea Partier — for conservative Republican candidates in Maine,
where the GOP captured the state house, state senate, and
governorship. Mike Castle may have learned nothing from 2010, but
other Republicans were watching.
IN 2014, 20 Democratic and 13 Republican seats will be in play.
The Democrats include Max Baucus of Montana, Mark Begich of Alaska,
Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Mary
Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Jeanne Shaheen of
New Hampshire, and Mark Warner of Virginia — all eight in trending
red states.
On the Republican side, the only Republican running in a state
that did not vote for Bush, Bush, and McCain is thrice-elected
Susan Collins of Maine.
In 2012, Republicans will most likely capture at least the four
seats they need to win a 51-vote majority in the Senate. But the
meaningful number for control is 60.
In the 2012 and 2014 elections Republicans must win a net gain
of 13 seats of the 43 Democratic and 23 Republican seats in play.
Today one sees at least 20 vulnerable Democratic seats and at most
three vulnerable Republican seats inside those numbers.
If Republicans find a presidential candidate capable of
defeating Obama, they then only have to have two moderately good
years in Senate races — competing on friendly territory and
defending few if any of their own seats — to ensure the 60 votes
needed to overcome a filibuster and begin to repair the damage of
the past few decades of overspending, over-regulating, and
overreaching.
MikeD| 12.28.10 @ 7:36AM
As long as RINOS like collins and snow are considered Republicans, a 60 seat super majority will be worthless. Not only do we need to wage the most aggressive election campaigns in 2012 and 2014, but we also have to implement a strategy that forces demoncraps and RINOS to vote on difficult bills in the Senate. That will force RINOs out in the open and nail the demoncraps onto their own cross of liberalism with their votes.
The republicans had better realize that this is war to preserve our Country, every bit as monumental and epochal as our Civil War in 1861-1865. The choices have to be clear, with no room for any RINOs to "go wobbly" as Lady Margaret Thatcher told George Bush in 1990.
After 18 months of clear voting choices, every senator and representative will have to stand on their voting record. The best way to assure this is to structure EVERY bill as a SINGLE ISSUE, so that the 'cozy' deals and back-room promises can't be hidden in 2,000 pages of 'legalese'.
Are you paying attention GOP?
Paul Clare| 12.28.10 @ 8:16AM
RIGHT ON! That is the perfect strategy! Define every bill, make every vote a vote that defines the Senator and Representative and even President so the voters know who is really working for them!
Cardsfan112056| 12.28.10 @ 2:15PM
Well said. The GOP actually needs 63 seats to overcome defections by Collins, Snowe, and Brown. Yet with the current defections on DADT and the START treaty, the GOP may need even more than that. Let's just hope that the electorate has a good memory on who voted for what in November 2012.
Alan Brooks| 12.28.10 @ 6:35PM
"It is entirely possible that Republicans will win 13 more Senate seats in 2012 and 2014."
If Gingrich's "revolution" couldn't shrink govt much in the late '90s, what difference will 60 seats make in 2012, 2014, 2016, or 2020? it has become routinized: promise smaller govt, but shrink it very very little.
MikeD| 12.28.10 @ 8:04PM
The difference is that this time there is no 'fall back and punt' position. Thus the Republicans cannot slink into their all too familiar routine of talking tough and then playing 'nicies' with the dems so they can be 'well liked' and invited to the really cool parties. (ANY MEMBER OF THE GOP DELEGATION WHO UTTERS: "BIPARTISANSHIP" OR "REACHING ACROSS THE AISLE" NEEDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY STRUNG UP.)
There is no tomorrow. Obama and his thugs have shoved us so far down the road to disaster that we have no options but to kick serious a$$ and go for the throat. If the GOP doesn't have the collective 'spherical gonads' to do the job, they will be the final witnesses to the death of the American Dream, and indeed, America. The really bad news is that we will go down in an orgy of blood and destruction. Frankly, the dems don't care which way it happens; whether they get to preside over a totalitarian dictatorship or the ruins of a multi-faction civil war that will see the other major powers swooping in to pick at our bones.
That's the choice: Use 'em or lose 'em. I'm referring to our 'spheroidal gonads'. We're at the end of the road, right where the dirty dems dragged us, betting that the GOP and the rest of America will submit to the socialistic boots rather than fight for freedom. Are they right?
TROY SANDERS| 12.28.10 @ 9:28PM
add Lisa Murkowski to the RINO's that must be sent packing.
she is Obama's go to girl for swing votes.
Phoenix Roberts| 12.30.10 @ 2:31PM
Don't forget Orrin Hatch! (RINO-UT). We sent Bob Bennett home with his tail between his legs, and we plan to do the same to "borin' Orrin" in 2012. We have Rep. Jason Chaffetz and a half dozen others who could mount serious challenge to this 36-year Senate fossil.
Ted| 12.28.10 @ 7:45AM
Haven't we heard this song and dance before? Just vote for the GOP, vote for Republicans, and then conservatism will rule the day.... Except conservatism somehow loses, even when we have "majorities."
MikeD| 12.28.10 @ 8:54AM
Ted, I'm as discouraged as you are, mostly because the GOP collectively seems to undergo a spinal removal as soon as they get to Washington. That's why I am proposing that everything voted on by the House be broken into one single issue. That way, it will be so simple even RINOs could read them, and they'd have no place to hide.
The 800 pound gorilla in the room is the fact that nobody thinks drastic events could happen here. Remember, with instantaneous world-wide communications, some insignificant event in Greece or Korea could explode overnight and we could wake up to a U.S. Dollar worth 50% less. Don't laugh, that's exactly how World War One started. We are living in very dangerous times, and the powder keg that sets everything ablaze hasn't even been thought of yet!
The GOP has no choice: They had better do what they promised or unthinkable things will happen, the likes of which we cannot even conceive.
Seek| 12.29.10 @ 4:58PM
Anyone can "predict" war by threatening to start one; that's called "self-fulfilling prophecy."
Groad| 12.28.10 @ 5:43PM
When we had the majority after 2004 and all that "political capital", the leadership needed to propel the promised agenda propmtly evaporated. Capt McQueeg and his gang of 14 wreaked havoc, the WH went lame duck within 90 days, the House and Senate leaders both kowtowed to the Democrats and the the energy of the the Republican voter was drained. Disillusionment set it and only came back with the advent of Tea PArty activism. The Republican Establishment RINOs will be casualties in the future, not the voters.
youfamissim| 12.28.10 @ 7:57AM
Mike I agree with you. The first act of the new congress should be requiring ALL government workers be enrolled in the new healthcare plan. That will act like water on the Wicked
Witch. The next act is requiring Unions to join to the Health Care roles. These two acts will paint liberals into a corner.
Slashing Government salaries is next. Showing how federal employees make double their peers in the private sector is a task even the Stupid Party can pull off.
Ending programs that can't seem to find a way to fulfill their mandate is another easy task. 20 plus years of failure is no reason to perpetually fund anything. Sun-setting other programs and halving their budgets will send shock waves thru Washington.
Cut all funding for Czars and actively repudiating their work is another simple task.
Investigation of EPA is job one for Issa and his staff. Constitutional and other abuses can be a criminal statutes that must carry prison time and healthy fines. Breaking a few of Egobama's pals will help the remaining sycophants reconsider their allegiances.
Money is requisite to wield power in Washington. Cut the funding and you stop the madness.
Dave | 12.28.10 @ 10:51AM
In a perfect world, what the poster above suggests would make all the political difference in bringing this country back into day to day reality.
Sadly ...
None of the above will happen during this current collection of DNC Cossack's current reign of social and legislative insanity.
Never forget, grasshoppers: "With but a single stroke of his dictatorial pen ... Comrade Obama can and will veto anything non-socialist in agenda movement. And by 2012 and (later) '14 -- anything else that develops may well be ... too late."
But then ... that's just me.
Paul H.| 12.28.10 @ 8:25AM
Who is Grover Norquist?
From what I read he is one of the backroom movers and shakers of the GOP.
But is he also the leader of the "5th column" for the Islamist take over of the US.
Doesn't he bring supporters of Hamas and Hesbollah to the White House and represent them as "moderates and men of peace"?
Will the real Grover Norquist stand up? Is he the patriot or the clandestine CAIR agent?
Who is Grover Norquist?
tatosian| 12.28.10 @ 8:14PM
Norquist on Ground Zero mopsque- ""Republicans will lose Jewish votes by focusing on a mosque in New York."
"You're not just going to lose Muslim votes," said Norquist, who has long argued that Republicans should win those voters. "You're going to lose Jewish votes, Indian votes, Buddhist votes. Every member of a minority group looks at a situation like this and says, oh, the people hitting this minority will eventually start hitting me. The people doing this are losing the Republican Party Muslim voters, Sikh voters, Jewish voters, and Mormons.”
Norquist's dhimmitude-
For "the most complete documentation extant of Grover Norquist’s activities in behalf of the Islamist Fifth Column" see Frank Gaffney's 'A Troubling Influence', Frontpagemag.
Norquist is a big fan of amnesty, 'Norquist Serves Immigration Interests', "At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington last February...Tancredo observed - It is exceedingly odd that at the very moment [when] . . . the Democrats’ amnesty plan [seems] dead in the water, CPAC leader Grover Norquist and a handful of Republican lobbyists are conspiring to resuscitate it.”.
Norquist is a rat.
Yet he writes for the American Spectator.
Curiouser and curiouser huh?
tatosian| 12.28.10 @ 8:19PM
'New Initiative to Attract Latinos to Conservative Movement Mirrors Liberals’ Policy, Critic Charges' cnsnews. http://cnsnews.com/news/article/61442
'A Conservative Statement of Principles on Immigration http://ff.org/centers/ccfsp/press/20720040229.html
Rat. Squeak squeak squeak.
tatosian| 12.28.10 @ 8:25PM
'Conservatives for Obama' http://www.nationalreview.com/.....-krikorian
A troubling influence- http://archive.frontpagemag.co.....RTID=15084
squeak
Seek| 12.29.10 @ 5:01PM
The odd thing is that Norquist wrote a piece in the June 2001 print issue of TAS, calling for the Republicans to court Muslim voters; supposedly Bush's 2000 victory was due to these people. Three months later, we saw how pro-American this bloc really is. Not to worry -- Grover remains steadfast in his view.
emo| 1.2.11 @ 10:18AM
Not correct, Norquist is wrong. Indians, Bhuddists and Jews all see Islam as the enemy not as some aggrieved minority
Yosemeti Sam| 12.28.10 @ 10:46AM
" ... If Republicans find a presidential candidate capable of defeating Obama ...."
Their 'hurdle' is straightforward:
DEFEAT:
BHOs' praetorian guard - the Leftoid media, aka PEN1!
They who will coil upon any Republican who's the salt of the Earth and not a pied pepper.
When that drama moment of cutting the Blue wire or the Red wire to 'save the day' comes about: when PEN1 hollers to cut the Red wire candidate - cut Blue!
PattyMor| 12.28.10 @ 10:46AM
Who is this guy trying to kid? With Snow, Collins, Brown, Lugar & Gramesty, plus the whole gaggle of RepubuRats who voted for the "food safety" bill, no dismantling of the welfare state is possible.
We now have a full Communist take over of the government: Health Care and Food will doled out as political rewards and/or punishments.
Obama ceded control of the Internet to the Islamists and now the U.S. government wants to
"save" us from the capitalists! Then he wants us to freeze to death as he prices energy out of the reach of many.
Al Adab| 12.28.10 @ 12:48PM
I remain pessimistic, not for the GOP prospects, but for the future of Freedom. If accomodationist Republicans ( the Rockefeller wing, the moderates, the establishment or whatever name) preponderate, the party label has little meaning. Conservatives must continue to prune the tree of such until we have rebuilt our Conservative home. "If we mean to take this party back, Lets get to work" to borrow from B G 1960. The issue for the party is the same then as today. Just gaining numbers alone is not enough. We must gain Conservative members even if fewer than simple Republicans. Frankly such Republicans are of no use to Liberty for they have failed us all too often.
I Survived Arlen Specter| 12.28.10 @ 12:57PM
Mr. Norquist, you're not fooling me. You sir are the granddaddy of RINOs & if your advice is heeded it will just be more of the same "roll over & vote with the Democrats" RINO b.s. which has for the most part destroyed The GOP & driven longtime GOP voters from the Party like myself. A Republican majority riddled with RINOs is totally worthless & will result in more capitulation to B.O.'s radical left agenda as happened in the "lame duck" Congressional session this past month. Take Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Lindsey Grahamnesty, John McCain, etc. , your RINO ideas, & sell them somewhere else. This voter will not be fooled by another RINO ever again.
@notpjorourke| 12.28.10 @ 1:08PM
Tim Johson is up for re-election in '14 not '12.
Oldefarte| 12.28.10 @ 1:28PM
The essential point is that taxpayer-voters MUST continue their 11/2/10 march towards purging the domestic terrorists and RINOS from the congressional ranks. I most want to see the Nelsons [Nebraska and Florida], Landrieu in Louisiana and McCaskill in Missouri go down to defeat. Collins and Snowe are like Brown and Boxer in California.....Maine is such a liberal yankee state, that their defeat is out of the question. The prime concern should be recapturing 1600 Pennsylvania, which should not be difficult [if taxpayer-voters use their common sense and brain cells, and not allow themselves to be MSM brainwashed similar to 2008]. The Republican must select this time a truly capable candidate, and hopefully a young one [and there are and should be ample potentials to select from]. This country's future depends upon same, and everyone has to realize that they will be no second chances after 2012, since our country is now on the path to bankruptcy and cannot wait another four years after 2012 for salvation!!!!!!!
Martin j smith| 12.28.10 @ 1:45PM
If Obama continues to do things like expanding the government such as the FCC attempted take over and the EPA as well. If he refuses to do anything about spending and refusing to improve the employment levels, if small businesses continue to hold back and distrust Obama will see a tsunami even bigger than 11/2/2010 from which he will never recover.
Oldefarte| 12.28.10 @ 4:34PM
"""""IF''''''''......of course he will attempt to do these things, since he is who/what he is!!!!!
CardsFan112056| 12.28.10 @ 2:22PM
The GOP has to do a better job of recruiting candidates running for office. This pitch of candidates identifying themselves with Conservatism or Reaganism while campaigning and then governing on the opposite side of the spectrum when elected is really getting old (i.e. John McCain & Lindsey Graham). Compromise and reaching across the aisle only gets your hand bit or spit on. We need true conservatism in Congress to put this country back on track and maybe those newly elected tea party representatives will force the GOP to make the difficult votes and not conduct business as usual in Washington.
randyinrocklin| 12.28.10 @ 3:24PM
Johanns voted for the START treaty another RINO in the mold of the guy he beat, what's his name? Chuck Hagel ugh!
Cincinnaticl6| 12.28.10 @ 3:53PM
Dream on. As the Republican party stands now nothing will change. Every Time the conservatives get excited, they soon are trampled by the RINOS.
The Republicans need to study the Democrat Party on how to play hardball.
This may be the time for a new party called the Conservative Party. I'd rather vote for a party,even if it loses, that's true to its name and purpose, than a party that talks big and then just caves and runs at the first shot.
Oldefarte| 12.28.10 @ 4:37PM
Very, very true! The RP needs to learn how to flush the Queensbury Rules in the toilet and flush it, and then to get down into the gutter [where the DP has been for centuries] and fight like hell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Melvin Udall | 12.28.10 @ 6:09PM
With all due respect this conjecture on future elections is meaningless. Unless the GOP can at least FAKE courage and conviction IMMEDIATELY none of this matters.
During a lame duck Congress look what the Democrats passed in December. Then look at what the EPA and FCC did in the same time frame. This was all in one month, and after America rejected their policies. It was a coup.
The progressive REVOLUTION is now! We are in a fight for our lives! If this isn't fought as the very real danger it is this conjecture about future elections is a joke. Look to Chavez to see what is coming.
Nothing short of a new era of "McCarthyism" is going to save this Republic. The only questions are whether we will wake up and whether Republicans will act.
vip2020 | 12.28.10 @ 6:24PM
Thanks a lot for this article! I will surely visit your site again
Michael L. Hauschild| 12.28.10 @ 6:40PM
The dispatch of Obama supporting Richardson (primary 2008) to the peninsula of Korea in lieu of Hilary leads me to speculate that her admonition of “my last official government position” is political theater. The usurping of the podium by her hubby seems to have resonated like the nerve of an abscessed tooth. Payback is a bitch in the nether regions of the left but you have to give the liberal loons credit, the Inaugural Ball waltz allows cutting in by both your political enemies as well as your allies in the power game. Even the absurdly inept renovated Republicans will benefit from this Oval Office subterfuge.
jo blo| 12.28.10 @ 8:19PM
It's time we start playing hardball, just like the commies. Right now, the bastards are talking about changing the Senate Rules with a simple majority. If they do it, we do it.
Obamacare involved reconciliation. They pressured the CBO to give Obamacare good numbers.
So, we need to pressure the CBO to give bad numbers, that Obamacare is hurting the budget, and then pass its repeal with reconciliation, having a GOP president sign it.
Until we learn to fight fire with fire, we're gonna continue to burn.
And to all the 'but the GOP won't do it' whiners: maybe they'd start listening if enough people quit whining and started pressuring them to do what they're supposed to.
Remember, diamonds are made by pressure applied over time...
Spicy Joker| 12.28.10 @ 8:50PM
The Republicans must first expel Repubics like the Bobbsey twins from Maine.
loulou| 12.28.10 @ 10:12PM
Not to be mean but, isn't Johnson of SD brain-damaged?
BackToBasics| 12.28.10 @ 10:51PM
Much is said here about Repubs getting tough. I agree totally. Democrats look meaner than the Republicans I see but there is a chink in their hard-looking eyes.
I know there is because when it comes to foreigners the Dems are just a bunch of patsies. They are afraid of almost any foreign power that shows even just a little bit of spine.
Yet the Repubs let themselves be harrassed and victimized and rolled by them. I say the empeor(s) have no clothes. If we sttod tough and looked like winners we'd get even more people to join our conservative cause.
The Repubs would surprise not only the country but even themselves when they saw how much they could win if they came out swinging.
loismtran| 12.29.10 @ 2:23AM
Very Interesting! I just now printed Coupons of my Favorite Brands for free from "Printapons" you can find them online.
Penguins Fan| 12.29.10 @ 8:57AM
Electing 60 Republicans to the Senate will solve nothing. Nothing, aboslutely nothing will be solved..while spineless wimps like Snowe Job, Mrs. Barnabas Collins, Flimsy Gramnesty, John McQueeg, John Cornyn - he of the NRSC disaster, Lugar and Borin' Orrin Hatch are primaried out or retire. It is a shame Murky got re elected. She is awful, too.
It is not just about getting rid of Democrats. Dorgan, the Nelsons, Hagan, Begich, Baucus, Johnson, Landrieu, Pryor, Shaheen, Brown, Casey, all need to go, but so do the idiots from Michigan - Stabenow and Levin. Dingy Harry will be there until January 2017.
We need a conservative majority in the Senate, not a Reublican majority. Only then can things really get done.
LK| 12.29.10 @ 1:52PM
GN is either kidding himself, or trying to fool us. So long as the "60" includes Snowe, Collins, McCain, Graham, Lugar and Grassley( and a few others of the same ilk), nothing good can come of it. We would be better off with Democrats replacing all of the above. Lets face it they are all big govt. progressives not enumerated powers conservatives. I'll take one Rand Paul or Jim Demint for any two Lindsey Grahams any day.
Yephora| 12.29.10 @ 4:07PM
The Republican Party needs to be purged,
http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=244797
and it should begin with a particularly treacherous wolf in sheep's clothing:
http://archive.frontpagemag.co.....RTID=15084
Yephora| 12.29.10 @ 4:09PM
First link correction: http://www.wnd.com/index.php?f.....eId=244989
spoofproof| 12.29.10 @ 5:23PM
I want to see a lot of empty office buildings all over Washington, D.C.; buildings that once housed thousands and thousands of fat-cat bureaucrats. I am sick of Big Labor Big Government being up in my face with some kind of cockamamie government-intervention story 24-7-365. Nobody on earth needs as much "government" as we have now. There is too much "government" for our own good. We The People need to make sure the Federal Bureucrat Population shrinks, shrinks, shrinks. I want to see The Incredible Shrinking Government...like a Hollywood special-effect happening in real life. We will ALL be better off when the D.C. Federal Bureaucrat Thugocracy is a lot smaller.
Charles Martel| 12.29.10 @ 5:30PM
As "notpj" pointed out earlier, Johnson of SD is not up until '14, but the author lists twelve other Dems who are up next time, while only two of ours should be at risk. While several of those are longshots (Feinstein of CA, Lieberman of CT, Akaka of HI, and Kohl of WI), I have three others on my '12 list that merit taking down and are not invulnerable: Stabenow of MI, Menendez of NJ, and Bingaman of NM. It should also be noted that a fourth, Manchin of WV, was elected to serve only the remainder of a term and will be up again in 2012.
A clean sweep of these sixteen seats, even with the loss of Brown of MA and Snowe of ME, would make 61: a filibuster-proof Republican majority in the 113th Congress.
Sure, it's unlikely, but we haven't failed until it doesn't happen. "Unlikely" is not "impossible".
+++
Ann| 12.29.10 @ 9:25PM
Remember what Trent Lott said of the "teaparty candidates?" We don't need any Jim DeMint teaparty candidates, when they get here we will have to co-opt them immediately." That tells you that ALL establishment senators in the Republican party must go. DeMint has been the firewall for us time after time. We need many more like him. WE hold the new represenatatives feet to the fire. Demand they place bills on Obama's desk, even if he vetoes them, to show this man is NOT for the American citizen. Keep showing how far off the charts he is. Show he does NOT care about the American citizen. Use as one poster said, the single issue bills to spotlight the RINOS and the Democrats. Constitutionalists must vote for individuals ONLY. Do NOT vote party. I'm an independent and I will NOT vote party. I vote for someone with a record that is Constitutionally sound. IF not, they don't get my vote. I don't replace a liberal with a RINO as they wanted me to do in California. Fiorina would have been worse than Boxer. She is a globalist and ties to George Soros, but she would have gotten bills authored and passed because the establishment GOB's "good old boys" in the GOP wanted her and coronated her instead of backing the Constitutionalist DeVore. We stand our ground and make the parties and the individuals come to us and we say to them PROVE IT.
Dale Cord| 12.30.10 @ 10:05AM
2011 a year that will live in Infamy. Future school history books will read: The year the Muslims conquered the United States of America. With not so much as a whimper from its cowardly military leaders, and name calling armchair patriots. Disgraceful,Shameful there are no words to adequately describe her defeat. As the 300 Spartans strength and ingenuity conquered all of those who challenged them, so a small band of renegades conquered the greatest country the world has known. When Davids rock slued Goliath. It also foretold a warning. "The bigger they are,the harder they Fall." Our country lost its battle of survival when it became intoxicated with its deceptive mentality, that it did not need its Creator anymore, and wisdom no longer was apart of its citizens physiology to survive.
emo| 1.2.11 @ 10:11AM
1. Youre not really explaining why Muslims who are less than 2% of the population will conquer the USA in 2011, when they cant even conquer Jordan or Tunisia.
2. If Islamists conquer the USA in 2011, the history books will call it liberation not conquer. The winner writes history
emo| 1.2.11 @ 10:09AM
I would rate NV and John Ensign as a GOP likely loss in 2012.
emo| 1.2.11 @ 10:16AM
Posters who say having 60 will solve nothing because of the RINOS are simply wrong and need to study history and understand what it is that drives RINOS.
First from 1994-2000 and 2002-06 RINOs went along with the Gingrich/Hastert agenda 99%. The congressional GOP was nearly completely lock step in agreement. The same would happen again when the GOP had 60 seats, why?
What animates RINOs is having the balance of power and press attention. If they dont, they will go along with the majority. History proves it.
DANSHANTEAL| 1.2.11 @ 3:21PM
TOM COBURN SAID TO GIVE HIM FOUR MORE TRUE CONSERVATIVES IN THE SENATE AND HE WOULD MAKE THE APPROPRITE CHANGES FOR OUR COUNTRY. HE GOT 'EM AND HE'S NOT AFRAID TO USE THEM.